US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

Very good analysis

https://ejmagnier.com/2021/04/29/why-zarif-blames-soleimani-for-the-governments-failure/

JohninMK wrote:Very good analysis

https://ejmagnier.com/2021/04/29/why-zarif-blames-soleimani-for-the-governments-failure/

This is what I believed was going on when General Soleimani was assassinated. Zarif the moron thought that the west would remove all sanctions, even under Trump but he should have known better but Zarif was/is a western stooge.

It is better for Iran to make deals/agreements with China and Russia. They already have one with China, they might to able to sign one with Russia.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/our-warplanes-can-reach-iran-israeli-intelligence-minister-vows-war-if-bad-deal

A top Israeli intelligence official has warned that if the end result of the Vienna talks is a return to the JCPOA
nuclear deal, then war between Iran and Israeli will very likely follow.

This is called blackmail. Imagine if Russia threatened war on Ukraine if it did not abide by the Minsk Accords. Instead
you have EU-tardia and the rest of NATzO crapping their pants because Russia dared to deploy forces within its own borders
to send Kiev a message that its attempt to ethnically cleans the Donbass was not going to go unhindered. NATzO is
practically declaring war on Russia for daring to stop a genocide. Meanwhile Israel, NATzO's protectorate, can do what it
wants.

Iran needs to develop nuclear bombs, fast.

Israel needs to check its privilege

That's what it all comes down to. It wants to continue to be unchallenged in the Middle East and have a divided crapshoot of a region with no other powers capable of challenging it or forming alliances. Other than fellow US vassals like Saudi Arabia which are laughable military threats.

But them declaring war would defeat the whole point as that's what they want to avoid. Iran gets a nuclear deal, and Israel will accept it, after however many outbursts and spasms.

They can't do anything militarly. Too far.

Even in Syria their air operation have mediocre results let alone thousand km away with limited package.

The counter attack would be also painfull. Iran showed its missile capacity. Israel can face 2 or 3 rockets from Hamas but certainly not a coordinated iranian attack.

@ISOS

".... They can't do anything militarly. Too far.Even in Syria their air operation have mediocre results let alone thousand km away with limited package.The counter attack would be also painfull. Iran showed its missile capacity. Israel can face 2 or 3 rockets from Hamas but certainly not a coordinated iranian attack..... "

By" they", I suppose you mean the Usraelis. But in reality " they " may start hostilities, but the Americans will be dragged in also. And the American conventional force , deployable in  PG region, their Navy and Airforce far exceeds Iranian ones. They managed to cause severe damage in the region. And they will be able to do so again. Without loosing  much in terms of killed or wounded. The warmongers will make money. Civilian contractors will quickly repair damage caused by missiles. But Iran will have great difficulty in rebuilding. They win in a short war.

Iran only hope is to have Nuke ICBM as detterent. Only way for peace. But right now the defeatist bunch in Iran are selling the family HEU for a miserly  7 billion USD ( American Gold) exchanging I am sure all the HEU. Then the Zionist and Americans will attack. What a cheap way to win a war.........if you have Gold, people attack you and kill and Rob you and you are left with nothing, but if you have HEU, then no one attacks you and you are alive, the richest man on Earth.

US under Trump didn't go at war when he had total green lights after the ballistic missile attack. Forget a war with Biden as president.

Biden is looking at restarting the Iran deal and will never follow Israeli in an attack with no UN authorization.

And Iranian will never answer to such an israeli attack by attacking US forces.

Israel is alone and can't do anything with its military capabilities. They may hit some targets but that will be useless. They have nothing to hit deap enough to touch iranian critical nuclear stuff that is burried in the ground.

Isos wrote:US under Trump didn't go at war when he had total green lights after the ballistic missile attack. Forget a war with Biden as president.

Biden is looking at restarting the Iran deal and will never follow Israeli in an attack with no UN authorization.

And Iranian will never answer to such an israeli attack by attacking US forces.

Israel is alone and can't do anything with its military capabilities. They may hit some targets but that will be useless. They have nothing to hit deap enough to touch iranian critical nuclear stuff that is burried in the ground.

They could use the Jericho missile with a derated warhead.

Isos wrote :

US under Trump didn't go at war when he had total green lights after the ballistic missile attack. Forget a war with Biden as president.Biden is looking at restarting the Iran deal and will never follow Israeli in an attack with no UN authorization.And Iranian will never answer to such an israeli attack by attacking US forces.Israel is alone and can't do anything with its military capabilities. They may hit some targets but that will be useless. They have nothing to hit deap enough to touch iranian critical nuclear stuff that is burried in the ground.

Trump DID go to war in a limited way. He authorised killing of top General and...... The reason there was no full scale war, was because Iran did not defend itself , as it should have. Ofcourse this position of Iran is not sustainable in the long term. Without a total collapse in morale for Army and resignation for government and ensuing social chaos.

The Americans supply Israeli Army. They have recently not even bothered with obtaining security Council approval for military action in Syria. In a war with Iran by Usrael aggression, their supply lines become legitimate targets. As do their other assets, such as providing intelligence.

Usrael military is ranked fourth in the world. So I can not see why we want to diminish them or threat from them. Ofcourse Russia fears not Usrael. They have Nukes and Airforce. By collapse of Iran, does Russia benefit? Maybe occupy the North? The South then occupied by the Americans? So we see why the Russians may not be sensitive to defeat of Iran.

Iranian civil infrastructure is vulnerable. They can destroy it, like Iraq. Unless Iran develops AND displays Nukes. Only solution. Only solution to keep all foreigners out of Iran soil. But with present sell out bunch, does not look good.

nomadski wrote:
Isos wrote :

US under Trump didn't go at war when he had total green lights after the ballistic missile attack. Forget a war with Biden as president.Biden is looking at restarting the Iran deal and will never follow Israeli in an attack with no UN authorization.And Iranian will never answer to such an israeli attack by attacking US forces.Israel is alone and can't do anything with its military capabilities. They may hit some targets but that will be useless. They have nothing to hit deap enough to touch iranian critical nuclear stuff that is burried in the ground.

Trump DID go to war in a limited way. He authorised killing of top General and...... The reason there was no full scale war, was because Iran did not defend itself , as it should have. Ofcourse this position of Iran is not sustainable in the long term. Without a total collapse in morale for Army and resignation for government and ensuing social chaos.

The Americans supply Israeli Army. They have recently not even bothered with obtaining security Council approval for military action in Syria. In a war with Iran by Usrael aggression, their supply lines become legitimate targets. As do their other assets, such as providing intelligence.

Usrael military is ranked fourth in the world. So I can not see why we want to diminish them or threat from them. Ofcourse Russia fears not Usrael. They have Nukes and Airforce. By collapse of Iran, does Russia benefit? Maybe occupy the North? The South then occupied by the Americans? So we see why the Russians may not be sensitive to defeat of Iran.

Iranian civil infrastructure is vulnerable. They can destroy it, like Iraq. Unless Iran develops AND displays Nukes. Only solution. Only solution to keep all foreigners out of Iran soil. But with present sell out bunch, does not look good.

What's the use of the nuclear weapons if they can't hit the US?
The Iranians are doing things properly by developing the delivery platforms first.

I wish I could agree Lacelot. But the religious ruling against Nukes, was the faulty foundation for defence, to start with. No doubt  made under duress. Then there was the freezing of research in 2003, for fear of yank attack. And designs for 3 stage solid Rocket have been collecting dust on a table. For no practical or technical reasons, other than political ineptitude or servitude . The result as we see, is a continuation of instability and war and foreign............. ( American and Usraelis ) adventurism. Iranians must set aside political expediency to the west and overcome fears of attack and internal servitude and incompetence by politicians in power. Be stoic to survive.

nomadski wrote:I wish I could agree Lacelot. But the religious ruling against Nukes, was the faulty foundation for defence, to start with. No doubt  made under duress. Then there was the freezing of research in 2003, for fear of yank attack. And designs for 3 stage solid Rocket have been collecting dust on a table. For no practical or technical reasons, other than political ineptitude or servitude . The result as we see, is a continuation of instability and war and foreign............. ( American and Usraelis ) adventurism. Iranians must set aside political expediency to the west and overcome fears of attack and internal servitude and incompetence by politicians in power. Be stoic to survive.

Well, when Khomeini got into power he even blocked the construction of nuclear power plants. Look at Iran today. They have nuclear power plants. They produce nuclear fuel, and they produce heavy water.

As for the missiles, just look at what they are doing with their "satellite launchers".
Iran launched the Zuljanah rocket this year which is a two stage solid, third stage hypergolic liquid rocket with 1.5m diameter and 25.5m tall.



It can be launched from a Transport Erector Launcher vehicle.
Those are precisely the technologies you would need for an ICBM.
But that missile still isn't large enough to hit targets in the US.

There are reports they are testing larger diameter rockets (2-3m) on a test stand.

This article from last year describes their solid rocket program history.
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208906/irans-solid-propellant-slv-program-is-alive-and-kicking/

This was written before the Zuljanah was launched this year.

Not enough. Iran needs a minimum credible Nuclear detterence. This means at least two hundred ICBM with MIRV Nuke tipped warheads . Plus a couple of Nuke powered submarines with Cruise missile Nuke warheads. Tactical BM Nukes. Nuke tipped SAM Long range. Nuke AA missile. Nuke torpedo. Nuke sea Mines. Nuke sattelite killers. Nuke suitcase device. Nuke toothpaste........In fact all warheads that can accommodate Nukes, should do so ! And Iran needs to display this force. Put it on parade. Put it on TV. Anything less, is not a detterent. Half measures. It needed all these years ago.

I will believe it, only when I see it. And so will others.

nomadski wrote:I wish I could agree Lacelot. But the religious ruling against Nukes, was the faulty foundation for defence, to start with. No doubt  made under duress. Then there was the freezing of research in 2003, for fear of yank attack. And designs for 3 stage solid Rocket have been collecting dust on a table. For no practical or technical reasons, other than political ineptitude or servitude . The result as we see, is a continuation of instability and war and foreign............. ( American and Usraelis ) adventurism. Iranians must set aside political expediency to the west and overcome fears of attack and internal servitude and incompetence by politicians in power. Be stoic to survive.

The fatwa was insane. There is no moral counter-balance to nuclear weapons. Only nuclear weapons can balance nuclear weapons. When your
enemies have them and are fully prepared to use them, then you need to defend yourself. The only reason that Israel keeps going on and on about
taking out Iran is because it has nuclear weapons and is backed by nuclear powers. But the backers are not enough and it is Israeli nukes that
will be used instead of American, French or British.

There is no legal or moral barrier to Iran arming itself for defense with nuclear weapons and ICBMs.

Remember that drone/rocket strike in Erbil back in March. Looks like it may not have been all it seemed.

John Hudson
@John_Hudson
· 29 May
Scoop: Iran-backed militias attacked a secret CIA hangar in Iraq this spring in a drone strike. The sophistication of the drone assault alarmed the WH: some pushed for a military response, others urged restraint. From ⁦@leloveluck⁩ & me 1/ https://washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e


TØM CΛT
@TomtheBasedCat
·
19h
Yeah I doubt they even detected that drone to begin with. Not surprising if that warehouse did belong to the CIA, even moreso since it's in KRI. The question is whether that was a coincidental target or if they knew who was running that building. I don't believe in coincidences.

I think all the major powers in the region have their own allies on the ground. As long as these powers do not threaten or attack  directly or indirectly the other sides, and do not interfere with trade and communication important to the other side, then practically there is no reason for confrontation.

No side can risk a confrontation. This is obvious. Therefore they should come to this understanding openly and directly. If Iranian aid ships can go to Yemen, and Russian supply ships can go to Syria, then American convoys can go to Kurdish region and Turkish supplies can reach the Turkmen. Problem solved.

All the major powers can then allow for open borders in these regions for trade and joint investments, creating buffer zones and maintaining the present national borders. As they can allow for trade between themselves, since they have agreed to a ceasefire and end to hostilities and a development plan for this war torn region.

With what looks like increased numbers in Jordan, Syria and Iraq (ex Afghanistan?) CENTCOM needs an excuse for something for them to do. So.............................

Status-6
@Archer83Able
·
1 Jul
The message about lowering the bar for retaliation has been relayed by US to Iran through diplomatic channels, according to the Washington Post.

Status-6
@Archer83Able
·
1 Jul
From now on, the US will respond forcefully to militias' attacks in the Middle East region even if no American personnel are killed or injured, US officials said.

h/t @IntelDoge

Agree that poking is not the answer. Neither for Iran, nor for the Americans. But more so for Iranians and allies. Since the attacks by Americans recently have been more than mere poking. Damage to Nuclear industry and other industry and killings of Generals and scientists and destroying ships and.... are all taken together militarily significant. But Iran and allies response is far from significant.

If we saw America leave Vietnam or Afghanistan, it was as a result of many years of conflict and human loss of life. It was a big kick up the back side, no poking there! If we see America not attack China or Russia, it is because of Nukes. A big kick up the back side, no poking there either.

To force out the Americans from region in the long term or more realistically to force a ceasefire, then similar scales of action are needed. Iran needs both to develop a detterent force and to organise much stronger resistance in region.


This will most probably ensure that the Americans will not start anything , or if things go bad, then the mere presence of Nukes will quickly de-escalate tensions back to point zero.

The only obstacle to this peace  is the presence of a type of political culture in Iran. One that finds subservience much more convenient than resistance. They say , ".... They complained against me for limiting Iran's missile range..", thinking this will save them. But they forget that Saddam and Gaddafi are both killed at their hands, and they had no Nukes, but Kim is alive and he has Nukes.

It is not the Americans fault. They are true to their nature. It is the Iranians fault. Their culture and politics. If they go down, it is their fault.

https://youtu.be/UUezq1GyAko

Edit :  The Iranian youth are encouraged to either shout in the Football stadium or cry in the Mosque. But not talk about politics in a political party. Politics is in reality banned or limited from public life. The only politics allowed is the one that protects the status quo or the rule by the minority. A form of religious dogma, that must remain absolute and infallible. Since any doubt or questioning of this political edifice, will result in it's collapse, like a house of cards. Misplaced and excessive religious dogma, may keep a minority in power, but it can not solve social problems. It can not replace a Democratic political system.

Edit : The enemy will use any excuse to get people to go on the street to demonstrate. They will then cause a disturbance by shooting someone and then use the chaos to stage a military intervention. They will even use the slogan of democracy to bring people out and cause violence. But true democracy needs first the formation of political parties and then agreement on new laws. It can not happen by violence.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/179460/VIDEO-IRGC-intercepts-US-speedboats-in-Persian-Gulf

Are they going to do fraternising ? Maybe exchange gifts and food ? play football ? Or open fire ? I guess it is up to Gunboat crew . Here someone is saying , " should we warn them , so they go away ? " . Warm them how ? Open fire ? Shout ? Ram boat ? Like USA submarine in China Sea ? Better not to send these Boats out in PG region . War and peace decided by pleasure Boat crew .

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/180337/IRGC-thwarts-US-navy-attempt-to-steal-Iranian-oil-tanker


The Iranians in recovering their property can use as much force as is necessary , to protect themselves and their cargo . Americans be warned !


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BS0FUXyKlFM

The Iranians cucking the Americans

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1455917145842409480?t=CjcaMrHG6jy-rvw3809A_g

The Americans last time carried out this type of oil theft in Atlantic Ocean . This time they did it near Iran coast . Reason I think , was twofold . If  they carried out operation in Atlantic Ocean again  , then Iran if it wanted to retaliate , could only do so by capturing American warship or similar vessel belonging to their Arab allies in the PG region . A far more costly situation for them . One where they can not walk away from . The second reason may have to do with Iran / Saudi talks , where the two sides may show signs of progress . Unlike last time , when Americans used Saudi bases to bomb Iraq PMU , instead of own Aircraft carriers in PG region , in order to implicate the Saudis against Iranians ! This time they may not have been able to do so .

However the reason that they carried out this operation near Iran coast , was so that the Iranians could easily recapture and they could walk away ! A form of political pressure . It is for the Iranians to remember , that the Americans may at some stage be ready to repeat this operation in far off Seas . Where Iran has no Naval presence . They would pull back their Naval assets from PG region at this time . And it is no good for Iran to target PG states and bring them and the Americans deeper into region , where they can launch attack Aircraft from Saudi bases . Not having to revert to using vulnerable Aircraft carriers .

The only solution for Iran is  development of ICBM / Nuke capability to hit American mainland . Like China or Russia or North Korea . Let's see if this new administration in Iran will follow the right path ?

Displaying conventional warhead ICBM , together with enriching to high levels for propulsion of Subs and production of Nuclear batteries for satellites are all allowed in  NPT . And display without doubt a Nuclear capability , without being obvious about it . So that China and Russia can stay on board with Iran . And Americans get the message .

Israel has the military capability to attack Iran's nuclear project, ex-IDF intelligence chief Amos Yadlin said this week. His remarks come as Tehran increases stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to 25 kilograms. This development is being viewed in Israel as another step being taken by Iran toward nuclear weapons.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/ex-idf-intelligence-chief-israel-has-military-capability-to-strike-iran-684140

However, to me at least, Israel's kinetic options don’t seem optimal. Maybe if IAI has secretly added conformal fuel tanks to F-35Is, they’d have the range but are still limited to 2,000-pound penetrators internally. Of course there’s always Jericho. Maybe Israelis intended to use ROCKS, a Mach 5 missile that will probably penetrate much better than simple 2000 lbs bomb

https://www.rafael.co.il/press/rafael-unveils-rocks-a-long-range-stand-off-air-to-surface-missile/