US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

Who is attacking who ? Who is sending troops into whose territory ? Are the Kurds sending pishmarge into Tehran ? Are they sending helicopters or APC ? Are their fighters advancing into Azeri or Farsi villages ? Are they surrounding them with troops ? Are they cutting electricity to them ? Are they using machine gun in their city ? No they are not ? They are defending own towns from attack . These are the facts . Not suppositions . Argue from facts . Iranians should not allow the Mullah right wing regime to start ethnic conflict or the yanks to do the same . Same objective , different clothes . Anti-socialist and anti-democratic elements both .

Who is attacking who ? Who is sending troops into whose territory ? Are the Kurds sending pishmarge into Tehran ? Are they sending helicopters or APC ? Are their fighters advancing into Azeri or Farsi villages ? Are they surrounding them with troops ? Are they cutting electricity to them ? Are they using machine gun in their city ? No they are not ? They are defending own towns from attack . These are the facts . Not suppositions . Argue from facts . Iranians should not allow the Mullah right wing regime to start ethnic conflict or the yanks to do the same . Same objective , different clothes . Anti-socialist and anti-democratic elements both .

With such reductionist reasoning as yours it's possible to level the same accusations against Russia in the Ukraine, yet we know that reality is more complicated. Sometimes you have to act preemptively, or your neighbours are in bed with your enemies and are plotting against you, or there has been some previous conflict that has never gone away and its resumption is inevitable.

Iran is not some land mass with a collection of different ethnic communities. It is before anything else a state, and a government, with its own set of laws. The Kurdish protestors are doing a lot more than what it took for the Yellow Vests in France to get a baton over the head for. Namely they are challenging the Iranian government, breaking the law, hinting at separatism and fighting with the police. That sort of thing is grounds for the usage of force to restore law & order in any country.

And I'm not making a judgement about the protesters' grievances here, I'm simply saying that every state will try and preserve itself and will try to put down insurrections that challenge their authority - this is inevitable. I'd also point out that the Iranian government itself is legitimate, fundamentally. Not necessarily in the Kurdish-populated regions, where it asserted itself with violence in the first place not long after the Islamic revolution; but generally, in wider Iran it was and is legitimate, it had enough of the population's support to overthrow the Shah, and enough support to have withstood Western attempts at pressure and isolation since then. It also has elections, a parliament and other organs, through which laws can be challenged and modified to some extent; more than in many of its neighbors at any rate.

This will not end with a new 'revolution', this will end, if it starts, as a new Yugoslavia or Syria. There is no groundwork for a new revolution. No new political theories, no popular political parties or charismatic leaders. What there is is a Western/Israeli objective to destabilize Iran and to this end they will support minority nationalists, corrupt politicians and armed groups.

Ideally the Kurdish groups and the Iranian authorities will sit down at the table and agree to address some popular grievances, while dismissing further outside attempts to inflame the situation towards armed conflict.

FP wrote " With such reductionist reasoning as yours it's possible to level the same accusations against Russia in the Ukraine, yet we know that reality is more complicated. Sometimes you have to act preemptively, or your neighbours are in bed with your enemies and are plotting against you, or there has been some previous conflict that has never gone away and its resumption is inevitable.

Iran is not some land mass with a collection of different ethnic communities. It is before anything else a state, and a government, with its own set of laws. The Kurdish protestors are doing a lot more than what it took for the Yellow Vests in France to get a baton over the head for. Namely they are challenging the Iranian government, breaking the law, hinting at separatism and fighting with the police. That sort of thing is grounds for the usage of force to restore law & order in any country.

And I'm not making a judgement about the protesters' grievances here, I'm simply saying that every state will try and preserve itself and will try to put down insurrections that challenge their authority - this is inevitable. I'd also point out that the Iranian government itself is legitimate, fundamentally. Not necessarily in the Kurdish-populated regions, where it asserted itself with violence in the first place not long after the Islamic revolution; but generally, in wider Iran it was and is legitimate, it had enough of the population's support to overthrow the Shah, and enough support to have withstood Western attempts at pressure and isolation since then. It also has elections, a parliament and other organs, through which laws can be challenged and modified to some extent; more than in many of its neighbors at any rate.

This will not end with a new 'revolution', this will end, if it starts, as a new Yugoslavia or Syria. There is no groundwork for a new revolution. No new political theories, no popular political parties or charismatic leaders. What there is is a Western/Israeli objective to destabilize Iran and to this end they will support minority nationalists, corrupt politicians and armed groups.

Ideally the Kurdish groups and the Iranian authorities will sit down at the table and agree to address some popular grievances, while dismissing further outside attempts to inflame the situation towards armed conflict. "


Well point by point : Reasoning wrongly exists , but you have not pointed at any specifics as to why my reasoning is faulty . The only parallel with Ukraine is that there exited also an extremist and unpopular right wing apparatus , chose to stage ethnic war , despite all constructive efforts by the Russian side . However in Iran , everybody as well as the Kurds and others are subject to an undemocratic system . They are all rising up , unlike Ukraine . You can not use pre-emptive strike to justify ethnic genocide . If Kurd groups had actually crossed into Iran in massive numbers , then you could justify intercepting them . But here this is not the case . They were attacking unarmed protesters .The Iranian state is not legitimate . In the past election the voter turnout was not enough to form government , only 25% in places . The Kurds are not doing anything that other Iranians were not doing . Until the military started to bring APC into battle ! Then apparently , some defended by small arms ! The only unusual activity they did was hinting at separatism ! WOW , we better send Tanks into Glasgow and open fire with machine guns , against those pesky Scottish ! After all and any government would do this ? You mistake insurrection with revolution . What you describe as Israeli / western apparatus following it's own agenda and fomenting unrest is what is happening now , they are in power now ( or have you not been paying attention ) through this illegitimate right wing liberal apparatus and very compromised security , things can only get better . Ideally we get a democratic republic .

True , it is for me more than just the fact that Iran admin is now hand in glove with Russia or China , so I turn a blind eye and say nothing , because it suits Russia or China  or that I say something because Iran admin is not hand in glove with America or Europe . And the present Iranian admin , is an illegitimate and extremist right wing apparatus , that did not and can not serve the best interests of Iranian society . The situation in Iran strangely is very similar to Myanmar . A security / military right wing apparatus , aided by the Buddhist clergy , that sanctified their anti-social democratic rule and violent suppression of pro-democracy movement . Yet China , supposedly the largest workers democracy , aids their military , because it " suits" it's national interests .

The impression that the removal of present admin in Iran , through a revolution , will automatically lead to establishment of a pro-western canton , a right wing and overtly liberal / dictatorial and anti-Russian / Chinese admin , is in my view not warranted . This view , I think relies on impressions gained by media reporting of protests by Iranian diaspora in Europe / America , and not on the rather scarce footage of actual protests by Iranians in Iran . They carry very different messages . The former is much more monarchist / liberal right wing and hence not entirely democratic . The latter is much more democratic , relies on local population of students and teachers and workers , asking for democracy .

So the democratic forces , although less systematically organised , and free to voiced their views publicly in Iran , are much more numerous , and have in the longer term , if not subject to brutal suppression , much more chance of forming a true democratic republic . A revolution is like an onion , unfolding with different forces . Also even if these Iranians are pro-West or anti-East , it is their right to voice this , but unlike now that many of them hold power , rather awkwardly and cryptic / hidden  , after the revolution , they can show their faces openly without any religious mask , openly . So can others . Russia and China , while maintaining their relationship with present admin , should at least not alienate the Iranian people by their anti- revolution stance . Iranian people will remember .

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3yveXZ-DTxk


Here we see the brutal nature of the right wing Mullahs Hezbo-lies in action against unarmed protests . Some in the left , are calling for mass strikes as well as  protests . However mass protests only works in cases , where the ruling authority is subject to some form of democratic thinking . Here we seem not to  have such a situation ? The right wing Hezbo- lies have agreed among themselves to kill and lie about these killings . Some say this tactic of imposed war on the public , leaves no choice for the public , but to react , and this is true .  So the outcome initially will be a collapse of central authority ( brought on by the public ) with the right wing in an organised and armed state , and the left wing in a disorganised and unarmed state . Some now in the left wing say that they should arm , but wait and use armed forces  until after mass protests , when they will take the final violent and necessary step . During the previous Iranian revolution , the people raided Army weapon stores and obtained guns and defeated the Shah . They won . The revolutionaries and left wing , only lost , when they disarmed , and members of Army together with religious right wing then massacred them . Will they give up their guns , this time ?


The solution as I have said previously :

( 1 ) Building and displaying a nuclear deterrence , unlike the policy adopted by the defeatist liberals , which needs a democratic revolution .

( 2 ) The transfer of power from minority to majority , to solve economic and social problems , which needs a democratic revolution .

( 3 ) Establishment of self - sufficient economy , not dependant on trade and mainly in food production , and agricultural reform , which needs a democratic revolution .

A democratic revolution needs at least a nascent organised body of political parties , for the workers and farmers and teachers ( middle class ) . Removal of present regime , without an organised body of political parties , will lead to a power vacuum , that only an enemy will take advantage of , by territorial aggression or a puppet regime of dictatorship .

What implications does the way the Ukraine war is going have on a possible Iran/ US war ?

The thought has been that Iran has all these missiles and drones and if the US set off a war , Iran would hit all these places with missiles and it would be a disaster for the US and the whole region. So it will never happen.

I just don't see how this thinking really works anymore. We can see with the war in Ukraine , that it takes a hell of a lot of missiles to make a difference. And if the US had border access from a country around Iran , it could just keep bringing arms from the outside into the conflict. Russia destroyed most of the indigenous arms industry in Ukraine in 2022. Iran could destroy a lot of Israeli military assets in the region with its missiles. But replacements will just show up as fast as they can destroy the previous stuff.

And Iran doesn't have near the capacity as Russia to mfg missiles. 

Even the strait of Hormuz. Iran can bomb some tankers in the immediate area. They will sink and that will be a pretty big disaster. The price of oil will probably double. But then other tankers will take their place. The US will find some way of securing a route. And after a 2-3 months , the price of oil would probably drop by 50%.

I just don't see how Iran holds this conventional deterrence trump card anymore.

Well from what i recall, War with Iran is not happening.

The issue is basically that Iran has the ability to deny the adversary safe gathering point or jumping off point to amass their forces in any real offensive into Iran.

Especially now that the adversary has lost their position in Afghanistan.
And the notion of Pakistan risking a 2 front war with Iran and India is laughable.

The only way into Iran is by ship or by Iraq, both options are near suicidal.

Now as for a long term attrition war, that will depend heavily on western intelligence capabilities, remember its not hard for Russia to find Ukrainian factories or assembly facilities.
Yuri entering a Ukrainian facility is one thing.
But John Smith showing up near an Iranian facility, well that's gonna raise some red flags.

And honestly, Iran's weapons production capabilities are far superior to that of Ukraine.

What implications does the way the Ukraine war is going have on a possible Iran/ US war ?

The most important difference is that the US doesn't give a shit about the Ukraine... Ukrainian people are just Russians that can be manipulated to kill Russians.

Israelis on the other hand are precious to those with power and money in the US... and if Iran started blowing up civilian targets in Israel... which is tiny in comparison to the Ukraine in area and in number of people... that things would be rather different.

The US thought it could defeat Iran because they did not respect their air defence (they had F-22s and F-35s that could fly through enemy airspace without problems and bomb all air defence systems till anything could fly into enemy territory with little risk).

The US and her allies are air power oriented and so the threat of air defences on their own is not enough to put them off... but Iran has more than that... they have ballistic weapons and cruise missiles and long range drones that can attack US and allied forces in other countries which Saddam really couldn't.

Saddams Scuds didn't have the accuracy to make its small warhead effective... Iranian missiles do have the accuracy to make their warheads effective...

The point is that Iran or Russia don't have to defeat tens of thousands of western planes or tanks to make the west not interested in a scrap... a few dozen planes all at once will likely make them run for cover.

The thought has been that Iran has all these missiles and drones and if the US set off a war , Iran would hit all these places with missiles and it would be a disaster for the US and the whole region. So it will never happen.

That is probably correct, but now Iran is getting Su-35s the danger to US aircraft has dramatically increased, and their SAMs look rather good as well as their ballistic missiles the US don't seem to be able to deal with at all.

I just don't see how this thinking really works anymore. We can see with the war in Ukraine , that it takes a hell of a lot of missiles to make a difference.

If we transplant the conflict in the Ukraine to the Middle East, where are you going to put the Ukraine... normally it is assumed to be Saudi Arabia they would be fighting Iran from, but not now.

If we make it Israel... well Israel has a more powerful, more professional armed force but it is tiny... and the country is tiny too.... where is the US going to base its forces? All in Israel.... not enough room... too much risk of sabotage from the unhappy locals wanting Israelis out.

How long would a large US air group last in close proximity to Iran?

Sea based?

Well China might want to give Iran tips on using ballistic missiles against large ships for instance...

And if the US had border access from a country around Iran , it could just keep bringing arms from the outside into the conflict.

The difference is that Russia went in to the Ukraine to save the Russian oriented Ukrainians... a country on Irans border helping the US attack Iran is fair game and no care should be taken to preserve the government of that country or the people of that country if they don't help Iran fight the Americans on their soil.

Russia destroyed most of the indigenous arms industry in Ukraine in 2022. Iran could destroy a lot of Israeli military assets in the region with its missiles. But replacements will just show up as fast as they can destroy the previous stuff.

In the case of Israel there are a lot of unhappy locals... give them arms and launch long range missiles to take out important parts of the Israeli military and Israel would really be in trouble... they have given the Palestinians no reason to help them against Iran, and in fact given them every reason to rise up against them and their evil actions towards them.

And Iran doesn't have near the capacity as Russia to mfg missiles.

Israel is tiny and a long way away...

I just don't see how Iran holds this conventional deterrence trump card anymore.

They have several trump cards.

They have good long range (in the region) ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, they have a reasonable airforce which is about to get modern fighter aircraft, they have good air defence missiles as well as good MANPADS and good ATGMs... they make Igla missiles under licence AFAIK and also Kornet under licence AFAIK.

So that is three obvious trump cards to make US forces bleed.

They also have the current situation where the US is engaged in sapping its own military potential helping a lost cause in Kiev, and also seems super keen on starting something similar in Asia against China... they couldn't fight Iran if they wanted to... though they will likely not remain a lot longer in Syria... how hard will it be to destroy their main reason for being there... stealing Syrian oil... blow up the oil trucks... they did it before... why did they stop?

Probably a secret deal with the US... we wont bother you and you leave us to steal Syrian oil, which probably suited Russia at the time... but no longer.

And honestly, Iran's weapons production capabilities are far superior to that of Ukraine.

And likely good enough for use against America... there is no way the US would have accepted taking the sort of losses the Ukrainians have taken... just too many bodies...

@DagnyTaggart963
Biden threatens Iran with retaliatory fire if attacks on US military bases in the Middle East do not stop
“My warning to the Ayatollah was that if they continue to oppose these troops, we will respond. And he must be ready. This has nothing to do with Israel”

No problem ! Just keep out of the way ! No firing on resistance forces by yanks .



Or your troops get torn to pieces , like Gaza today !

There are 4 carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea, the target is Syria and Iran.

That is what The Duran is saying.

par far wrote:There are 4 carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea, the target is Syria and Iran.

Maybe Syria or Lebanon. But Iran? No way. Try looking at a map. It is just too far away.

lancelot wrote:

par far wrote:There are 4 carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea, the target is Syria and Iran.

Maybe Syria or Lebanon. But Iran? No way. Try looking at a map. It is just too far away.

There are only 2 and one of them USS Eisenhower is enroute to the Gulf area. Plus a Marine task force in the area. There are only 4 CSG at sea in the World.



Likely the USS Ford is there in an attempt to deter Hezbollah.

lancelot wrote:

par far wrote:There are 4 carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea, the target is Syria and Iran.

Maybe Syria or Lebanon. But Iran? No way. Try looking at a map. It is just too far away.

The Duran said that there two carrier group in the Mediterranean Sea and two are leaving for probably the Middle East.

That is too much for Syria and Lebanon.

Iran has drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles. Good luck with that.

If the Americans do not interfere with regional forces , and legitimate trade and movement and relations , then I think they will not be interfered with . The conflict in Israel , or the fight , can be localised and kept around the immediate Israeli borders . Otherwise they will be attacked . It is no good saying " we do not want the war to expand , and expanding the war at the same time ! " American Aircraft carriers are easy targets . The question is what happens afterwards ?

I heard that an Iranian plane landed recently in Russian military base in Syria , for protection or because civilian Airport was damaged by bombing . If Russia is offering protection for Iranian planes upon landing , then why not offer protection to supply routes / troops , by their AD , from Iraq to Syria ? The Americans and British troops are free to travel to and fight in Israel !



Died of Heart attack ! They usually get Brain injury !

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/208010/US-Navy-announces-sending-nuclear-submarine-to-West-Asia


Only in the cobwebed and dusty minds of the American Brass , does a show of Nuclear armed Submarine , stop a Drone  attack against their bases in the ME region . Only in the psychotic and confused mind of the Israeli minister , does the use of a Nuclear bomb in Gaza , not lead to the extermination of the Jews , by radiation poisoning in entire Israel . But perhaps they are desperate enough to use Nukes , I know we may be even more desperate to reply in kind .

   

They are over escalating because they are scared... they don't have a lot of options and many of their options look really bad.

BTW that Israeli official already walked back his threats of using nukes.

Not sure if it should be posted here...but...

Iran attacked U.S Targets in Iraq.

looks like there is some serious missile attacks on the Americans right now in Iraq, erbil.
Heavy impacts, and footage what looks like ballistic missile's boosting up towards iraq from the Iranian Kurdistan province.

Nothing is confirmed but both the U.S consulate and U.S army base are hit hard by both drones and missile impacts.




Ballistic missile impact.

the sound is real, its an ballistic missile like they used before on the americans.

More, target was Mosad and a meeting of their Iranian agents.

“In response to the recent terrorist crimes of the enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the spy headquarters and gatherings of anti-Iran groups in parts of the Region were targeted by IRGC ballistic missiles in the middle of the night,” IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency cited a statement by the group as saying.