Russian Civil Aviation: News #4

Scorpius wrote:
IL-96 cannot be produced in an amount of more than 3-5 units per year in the current state of the plant in Voronezh.

And some new design would be produced in higher volumes? At what plant?

They can increase the capacity of the production if they want. This is not some show stopper.

Russia needs only a couple of dozen wide bodies for themselves, if all goes tits up Il-96 can cover that segment

But it will not be necessary, Chinese may throw tantrums but ultimately they will have to play ball on CR929

Russian angle in this project is to make money off component manufacture, maintenance and copyright royalties, buying airplanes themselves is just a bonus feature

PapaDragon wrote:
Russia needs only a couple of dozen wide bodies for themselves, if all goes tits up Il-96 can cover that segment

But it will not be necessary, Chinese may throw tantrums but ultimately they will have to play ball on CR929

Russian angle in this project is to make money off component manufacture, maintenance and copyright royalties, buying airplanes themselves is just a bonus feature

Having a widebody aircraft produced at home and without issues with sanctions or similar is also useful for sales to friendly country that may be in the baddies list from the US (e.g. Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Cuba, etc).
Those countries could buy an airplane assembled in China, but in this case China will have the most positive political advantages of the situation, not Russia. I known that many parts of the 787 are made abroad, but it is still considered an American aircraft, not an Italian or a Japanese one.

What I mean is that having Russia too much dependent on China is probably even worst than being too much dependent on the west.
And concerning the number of aircrafts that the plant in Voronezh can produce... I am sure that in case of need they can modernize the plant and expand its capabilities.

There's one thing I just don't get with CR929.
Its this. China thinks its Mr Billy Big Bollocks.
China thinks it can do everything on its own.
But in reality, China's real skill is in breeding like rabbits and working like sweatshop slaves.
And not much else.

Why does Russia deal with the one country that thinks it can catch up with or even "overtake" Russia?
I've nothing against China-Russia work, even a strong China-Russia partnership.

What I don't get is that Russia has plenty of other countries it can approach too.
Countries that will be grateful and not opportunist or resentful.

Russia could approach India,the ASEAN bloc, certain CIS parties, even certain EU countries like Italy.
It could approach Middle Eastern countries like Iran, or Latin countries outside of Brazil. But for some reason it doesn't. I would imagine India could be a good partner, provided they don't do the same nonsense as during the PAK-FA episode. ASEAN nations would also be promising I would think. And they would be interested in good relations with Russia for various reasons.

The alternatives do not really exist. Italy is already pissing on Russia as the NATzO faction asserts itself.
India is busy screwing around with the USA and is no longer a reliable partner for Russia. Brazil is run by
anti-Russian yanqui bootlicks that are ready to have thousands of Brazilians die instead of getting Sputnik V.

China is the best of the options out there. It is acting too big for its britches but it at least has the
economic critical mass and is one of the few countries that are not playing footsie with Russia's
western enemies.

Firebird wrote:There's one thing I just don't get with CR929.
Its this. China thinks its Mr Billy Big Bollocks.
China thinks it can  do everything on its own.
But in reality, China's real skill is in breeding like rabbits and working like sweatshop slaves.
And not much else.

Why does Russia deal with the one country that thinks it can catch up with or even "overtake" Russia?
I've nothing against China-Russia work, even a strong China-Russia partnership.

What I don't get is that Russia has plenty of other countries it can approach too.
Countries that will be grateful and not opportunist or resentful.

Russia could approach India,the ASEAN bloc, certain CIS parties, even certain EU countries like Italy.
It could approach Middle Eastern countries like Iran, or Latin countries outside of Brazil. But for some reason it doesn't. I would imagine India could be a good partner, provided they don't do the same nonsense as during the PAK-FA episode. ASEAN nations would also be promising I would think. And they would be interested in  good relations with Russia for various reasons.

What you mean "thinks it can catch up with or even overtake Russia"?

Give it 5 more years and they'll equal Russia in GDP PPP per capita, another 5 years and they will equal Russians in actual living standards

And by then they'll certainly have a lot more of their own technology too

Best thing for Russia to do? Trade, and make some tidy profit from their demand and market.

kvs wrote:

Scorpius wrote:
IL-96 cannot be produced in an amount of more than 3-5 units per year in the current state of the plant in Voronezh.

And some new design would be produced in higher volumes?   At what plant?

They can increase the capacity of the production if they want.   This is not some show stopper.

The plant in Voronezh is almost completely unviable. Large-scale modernization is needed there, and it is easier to build a new plant in a different place, not in a city with a million people. In general, the plant in Voronezh is actually a dying asset, as a maximum it can be used as a pilot and experimental production. I say this as a person who has worked at this plant for five years and has seen the situation from the inside.

Scorpius wrote:

kvs wrote:

Scorpius wrote:
IL-96 cannot be produced in an amount of more than 3-5 units per year in the current state of the plant in Voronezh.

And some new design would be produced in higher volumes?   At what plant?

They can increase the capacity of the production if they want.   This is not some show stopper.

The plant in Voronezh is almost completely unviable. Large-scale modernization is needed there, and it is easier to build a new plant in a different place, not in a city with a million people. In general, the plant in Voronezh is actually a dying asset, as a maximum it can be used as a pilot and experimental production. I say this as a person who has worked at this plant for five years and has seen the situation from the inside.

Did you work at VASO? If so the decline is in large part because of the break in relations with Ukraine and the An-148 project, as well as Boorish Yelpsin killing the Il-96 commercial airliner's viability at the behest of Boeing. The Tu-144 was also built/maintained there so maybe if they seriously go forward with a supersonic airliner than it could potentially get a heavy liquidity injection in the near future.

flamming_python wrote:

Firebird wrote:There's one thing I just don't get with CR929.
Its this. China thinks its Mr Billy Big Bollocks.
China thinks it can  do everything on its own.
But in reality, China's real skill is in breeding like rabbits and working like sweatshop slaves.
And not much else.

Why does Russia deal with the one country that thinks it can catch up with or even "overtake" Russia?
I've nothing against China-Russia work, even a strong China-Russia partnership.

What I don't get is that Russia has plenty of other countries it can approach too.
Countries that will be grateful and not opportunist or resentful.

Russia could approach India,the ASEAN bloc, certain CIS parties, even certain EU countries like Italy.
It could approach Middle Eastern countries like Iran, or Latin countries outside of Brazil. But for some reason it doesn't. I would imagine India could be a good partner, provided they don't do the same nonsense as during the PAK-FA episode. ASEAN nations would also be promising I would think. And they would be interested in  good relations with Russia for various reasons.

What you mean "thinks it can catch up with or even overtake Russia"?

Give it 5 more years and they'll equal Russia in GDP PPP per capita, another 5 years and they will equal Russians in actual living standards

And by then they'll certainly have a lot more of their own technology too

Best thing for Russia to do? Trade, and make some tidy profit from their demand and market.

GDP PPP per capita in Russia(29k) is around twice that of China's(16k), and with current pace of growth in China, it will take them 12 or so years to reach Russia's level, with the moronic assumption that Russia's will remain stagnant for that time period.

Firebird wrote:There's one thing I just don't get with CR929.
Its this. China thinks its Mr Billy Big Bollocks.
China thinks it can  do everything on its own.
But in reality, China's real skill is in breeding like rabbits and working like sweatshop slaves.
And not much else.

Why does Russia deal with the one country that thinks it can catch up with or even "overtake" Russia?
I've nothing against China-Russia work, even a strong China-Russia partnership.

What I don't get is that Russia has plenty of other countries it can approach too.
Countries that will be grateful and not opportunist or resentful.

Russia could approach India,the ASEAN bloc, certain CIS parties, even certain EU countries like Italy.
It could approach Middle Eastern countries like Iran, or Latin countries outside of Brazil. But for some reason it doesn't. I would imagine India could be a good partner, provided they don't do the same nonsense as during the PAK-FA episode. ASEAN nations would also be promising I would think. And they would be interested in  good relations with Russia for various reasons.

I agree with your general sentiment. China has strengths in certain industries and weaknesses just like everyone else. But they want to bull their way into all sectors regardless. "Made in China 2025" Yeah. What isn't made in China these days now. They look down on Russia as a has-been just like the US does.

Russia does have some irons in the fire with other countries. Hungary is going to license produce the IL103. https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/updated-il-103-light-single-to-be-licence-built-in-hungary/142950.article
Russia also sold some Superjets to the Thailand government. There could be something there in the future. The Philippines has also done some deals with Russia.

But for a project like this- taking on the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350 of all things- China is the only partner with the horsepower to do it. As long as the deal is a win win, I think they should go for it.

India could maybe be a partner for co-production of the MC-21 down the road.

The idea behind doing this with China is that it it gives it a locked in market of 1.5 billion people for which a large airliner would be of serious value to get to places with fewer stops or short hops to refuel.

Chinese airlines could potentially buy enough on their own to make the project viable and profitable...

A joint venture with any other country would not have the market to sustain production reliably.

The plant in Voronezh is almost completely unviable.

Sorry to hear about that, but an old worn out non viable production facility is not worth anything to anyone, so even if it costs more than just building a brand new factory somewhere else, I would say spend the money... even if it just makes IL-476s and Il-276s, or even Tupolevs like the Tu-330 perhaps...

flamming_python wrote:

Firebird wrote:There's one thing I just don't get with CR929.
Its this. China thinks its Mr Billy Big Bollocks.
China thinks it can  do everything on its own.
But in reality, China's real skill is in breeding like rabbits and working like sweatshop slaves.
And not much else.

Why does Russia deal with the one country that thinks it can catch up with or even "overtake" Russia?
I've nothing against China-Russia work, even a strong China-Russia partnership.

What I don't get is that Russia has plenty of other countries it can approach too.
Countries that will be grateful and not opportunist or resentful.

Russia could approach India,the ASEAN bloc, certain CIS parties, even certain EU countries like Italy.
It could approach Middle Eastern countries like Iran, or Latin countries outside of Brazil. But for some reason it doesn't. I would imagine India could be a good partner, provided they don't do the same nonsense as during the PAK-FA episode. ASEAN nations would also be promising I would think. And they would be interested in  good relations with Russia for various reasons.

What you mean "thinks it can catch up with or even overtake Russia"?

Give it 5 more years and they'll equal Russia in GDP PPP per capita, another 5 years and they will equal Russians in actual living standards

And by then they'll certainly have a lot more of their own technology too

Best thing for Russia to do? Trade, and make some tidy profit from their demand and market.

As mentioned below, China is way behind Russia except for "number of coolies in sweatshops".
There's several problems with China.
1)Potential instability. People get all that Western stuff... they want all those "trendy" libfag "freedoms".
Not just the normal people, but the billionaires etc. China is inherently unstable looking forward. THats why tax dodgers can be executed there.
2)Demographics. So they bred like rabbits to corner the sweatshop market. But guess what? Those workers get old! Greying popln caused massive problems to Japan. And thats nothing compared to whats brewing in China.
3)Problems lag growth. People start demanding employee rights because "well we are a superpower and rich now aren't we!". So the race to the bottom employers move to Vietnam, Africa or wherever. Whats CHina's edge now? Rising labour costs mean being a 1 trick pony means disaster.
Most 3rd world dumps have shiny skyscrapers and billionaires with lots of gold. But China doesn't show you the 1 BN plus coolies and serfs who will start demanding ever more, and threaten stability if they dont get it.
4)China is still a good copier, it doesn't
5)Young people won't patriotically join the labour camps of before. They expect more, and rightly so.
6)Poor resources, few real friends in the World.
7)Manpower is overrated as every year goes by. AI will replace armies of ants.

Additionally, Russia is going slow and steady. It doesn't want to a a cheap slave labour camp. Its highly educated and building good roots to grow.

Ultimately China won't disappear but it won't keep exponentially growing.
I still think that China was little different to the EU and US in that with CR929 it had no desire to be a jnr partner. Infact it ridiculously fancies itself as perhaps a snr partner.

Russia can bin that sort of nonsense and go with India/ASEAN or plenty of others instead. Once its skilled a rival it cant then UNskill it.
OK CR929 might be ok. But I don't see it as a good long term option. I think once Russia has restored its class leading abilities it should go alone more, with appreciative more jnr partners.

https://www.rt.com/business/522017-russia-sanctions-czech-republic/

In addition to beer and minor things I believe it is time to stop importing aircraft components for the let410 from Czech Republic and change his name to something like Il-410 or similar.

Of course do the same for the eventual aircraft derived from the let610

Let belongs to a russian company.

Hole wrote:Let belongs to a russian company.

yes but several components are still imported from Czech Republic, as far as I know. And what about the intellectual property?

Anyway it would be probably safer (and more patriotic) to change the product names (as Airbus or Boeing did when they acquired other companies)

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

Hole wrote:Let belongs to a russian company.

yes but several components are still imported from Czech Republic, as far as I know. And what about the intellectual property?

Anyway it would be probably safer (and more patriotic) to change the product names (as Airbus or Boeing did when they acquired other companies)

So far there has been some opposition from Czech ppl to this anti Russia binge. Business ppl and former presidents have made statements denouncing it. Czech is not a lost cause. Not yet anyway.

Il-96-400M will be produced in pieces for a special customer.
19/04/2021

April 16, 2021 the newspaper "Vedomosti”Reported that the resumption of serial production of the long-range wide-body airliner Il-96-400M is not planned. The aircraft will be produced in piece units for a special customer - SLO "Russia".

It cannot be said that this news was unexpected, because initially the same United Aircraft Corporation did not count on a large number of orders for this aircraft, and the production time of even the first prototype was postponed.

One look back

Reports of the resumption of production of the Il-96 in the Il-96-400M version and the development of a joint Russian-Chinese wide-body long-range liner CR929 appeared in 2014-2015. Initially, it was not entirely clear why it was necessary to develop two similar aircraft, to spend additional material and design resources on this. Dmitry Rogozin made complete clarity in September 2016, who during a visit to Voronezh said that in the period before the creation of a strategically new passenger aircraft CR929, which is about 2027, the Il-96-400M will cover the basic needs of Russia for both long-haul flights to the Far East and Kamchatka from the European part, as well as for charter flights during the holiday season to those countries where capacious aircraft are needed.

In May 2016, at a meeting on aviation development in Sochi, it was decided to resume production of IL-96-400M passenger aircraft. Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov said then that about 50 billion rubles were planned to be allocated for the implementation of the project for the production of the liner for the period up to 2021.

Il-96-400M is a project of a long-haul passenger aircraft for 300-430 seats based on the less capacious Il-96-300. The program involves the production of one prototype and six serial machines. The total cost of the program is estimated at more than 53 billion rubles. It was planned to start deliveries of the updated liner in 2025. This was announced on the sidelines of the Army forum in August 2017 by the UAC General Director Yuri Slyusar.

“Last year, it was decided to upgrade this aircraft (Il-96-300 - approx." AR " ) to the Il-96-400M variant, which has a larger capacity and new systems. 2025 - the beginning of deliveries of the aircraft into operation, for eight to nine years the aircraft will be produced in small, limited quantities, ”he said.

On August 28, 2018, the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree according to which the 4 billion rubles allocated to the State Transport Leasing Company were redistributed for the purchase of L-410 helicopters and aircraft. According to the previous version of the resolution, approved at the end of 2017, STLC received 4 billion rubles from the budget to advance an order for two Il-96-400M.

In December 2018, the UAC posted on the public procurement website a tender for the execution of R&D work on the modernization of the Il-96-300 into the Il-96-400M version. The tender documents for these works included more than 10 billion rubles. Preliminary tests of the aircraft were supposed to pass from November 2019 to January 2020, and additional certification tests were to be completed in May 2020.

In September 2019, at the Voronezh aircraft plant (VASO), the slipway assembly of the first Il-96-400M was completed, the liner fuselage was moved to the final assembly workshop. And the dates of the first flight instead of 2020 were postponed to 2021.

At the end of 2019, Yuri Slyusar said that the first flight should take place in late 2020 - early 2021. “A slight shift in the first flight may be due to the workload of the Voronezh aircraft plant associated with the implementation of other orders. In parallel with the construction of the prototype Il-96-400M, the construction and repair of aircraft for special customers is underway, it is necessary to redistribute efforts, ”Slyusar said.

Covid reality

In 2020, due to the pandemic, lockdown and the interruption of international flights, a large number of wide-body airliners around the world stopped flying and were sent for storage. Airlines gave priority to smaller aircraft, and part of their fleet of narrow-body airliners was adapted for cargo transportation. The restoration of the aviation industry is forecasted no earlier than in 1.5-2 years, and if in five years after the decision was made to resume production of the airliner, not even a single agreement of intent to buy the Il-96-400M was concluded, now in the conditions the ongoing crisis in international air traffic, the signing of contracts with airlines looks all the more illusory. The Ministry of Industry and Trade in 2020, citing the lack of interest in the aircraft from commercial carriers, proposed to redirect another 7 billion rubles,

“There is no order from the airlines, and taking into account COVID-19 and the downtime of long-haul aircraft around the world, the serial production of the Il-96-400M is not planned yet,” confirmed the representative of the profile Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov. He clarified that production for state customers will be organized. "Vedomosti"Write that in total two aircraft will be assembled, which will go to the fleet of the special flight unit" Russia ". The representative of Rostec confirmed that the manufacturer “has an understanding” about potential government customers: “It should be borne in mind that this is not a mass-produced aircraft initially, we are talking about a special aircraft that will be produced in piece copies,” he stressed.

Il-96-400M was supposed to become a "transitional" product for the period of creation of SHFDMS CR929. In addition, the Russian aircraft industry needs to develop existing competencies and load production facilities. The production rate at VASO is not high, but, according to Yuri Slyusar, the Il-96-400M was supposed to ensure the maintenance of the existing competence and increase the number of aircraft in operation.

IL-96-400M or CR929

Russia is a large country, and it is necessary to transport people from the Far East and Kamchatka to the European part, so Russian airlines are not going to give up long-haul liners. Aeroflot plans to receive its 21st Boeing 777 in May, three of these aircraft will go to the Red Wings fleet. In addition, Aeroflot is preparing to receive three A350s in May-July. The carrier received the first and so far the only copy in February 2020. A firm contract for the supply of 22 A350 airliners was signed back in 2017, Vedomosti informs.

The situation with wide-body aircraft for Russian airlines could be solved by a twin-engine version of the Il-96, and there were such plans - with the installation of two PD-35 engines. But these engines are still in the R&D phase and will be ready by 2026. By that time, the SHFDMS CR929 will already take on real shape.

Installing new promising high-power engines on an airplane with a metal wing looks like a half-hearted solution. Here, as an example, we can cite the history of the creation of the MC-21 aircraft. In an interview, the General Designer of the OKB im. Yakovlev of the Irkut corporation, Oleg Demchenko said that in the process of working out the design of the new airliner, he invited many leading specialists of the Russian aircraft industry for consultations, including Genrikh Novozhilov, with whom they discussed and argued a lot about what the future aircraft should be like. As a result, they came to a consensus that the wing must be composite.

As for the Il-96-400M, the development of a composite wing for it will immediately entail the need to redesign the center section, then the fuselage and empennage, and this, in fact, is the development of a completely new aircraft with colossal financial, time and human costs. A completely new modern airframe and wing with high aerodynamic characteristics must be developed for a new powerful and economical engine. It is impractical and unsafe to use a design developed under the conditions of the previous technological order; it is enough to recall the notorious B737 MAX, where modern engines were installed on the design of the 60s of the last century, which radically changed the dynamic parameters of the aircraft not for the better.

The decision to abandon the serial production of the Il-96-400M proceeds from the emerging realities. VASO will manufacture the number of these aircraft required by the special customer, and the efforts of the UAC and Irkut will be focused on the promising Russian-Chinese liner CR929, which will cover the needs of the two countries for a wide-body modern aircraft.

Andrey Velichko
for the site "Aviation of Russia"

https://aviation21.ru/il-96-400m-budet-vypuskatsya-shtuchno-dlya-speczakazchika/

I am not convinced with the new engines mean new wings and new wings means new body.... sounds like bullshit to me.

Backman wrote:

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

Hole wrote:Let belongs to a russian company.

yes but several components are still imported from Czech Republic, as far as I know. And what about the intellectual property?

Anyway it would be probably safer (and more patriotic) to change the product names (as Airbus or Boeing did when they acquired other companies)

So far there has been some opposition from Czech ppl to this anti Russia binge. Business ppl and former presidents have made statements denouncing it. Czech is not a lost cause. Not yet anyway.

Yeah they have sane voices for sure, Vaclav Klaus, Milos Zeman

But their population by and large are rabid Russophobes and completely drowning in the Soros cool-aid and will depose any potential pro-Russian government

They're neck deep into their Soros propaganda. And in general what, 10% of their adult female population have stared in porn movies or some ridiculous statistics like that, the most atheistic population in Europe - all of this signals hedonism and lack of moral absolutes, it's to their benefit to believe in any Russophobic BS and that's what they'll keep on doing.

The dates for the start of tests of the LMS-2 "Baikal" aircraft developed to replace the An-901 have been announced


Tests of a prototype of the new light aircraft "Baikal", created to replace the An-2, will begin at the end of 2021. The aircraft is being developed by the "Baikal-Engineering" company.

A prototype aircraft LMS-901 "Baikal" will be shown in July at the International Aviation and Space Salon. It will begin testing at the end of 2021. So far nothing has been announced about further plans, but the aircraft should go into serial production in 2024, replacing the legendary An-2 "Kukuruznik". At least this is the task set by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In the summer of 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a tender for the development of a light multi-functional aircraft for nine passengers to replace the An-2. The winner was LLC "Baikal-engineering" - a subsidiary of the Ural plant of civil aviation... At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade abandoned the single-engine TVS-2021DTS "Baikal" aircraft, which was planned for serial production from 2, the development of which went to the creation of the LMS-901 "Baikal".

The new aircraft LMS-901, being developed to replace the An-2, has a length of 12,2 meters, a height of 3,7 meters and a wingspan of 16,5 meters. Maximum take-off weight - 4,8 tons, speed - up to 300 km / h. The maximum flight range is 3 thousand km. The aircraft is created according to a modular scheme, which will allow it to be converted into a cargo or passenger version.

https://en.topwar.ru/182456-nazvany-sroki-nachala-ispytanij-razrabotannogo-na-smenu-an-2-samoleta-lms-901-bajkal.html

The new aircraft's max range would be 3,000km while the old An-2's max range in 845 km, so that's a max range increase of 3.6 times that of the antiquated An-2. Adding coaxial propellers and a SuperOx electric engine could further improve the max range, and with graphene batteries the max range could even be further improved.

magnumcromagnon wrote:......
The new aircraft's max range would be 3,000km while the old An-2's max range in 845 km, so that's a max range increase of 3.6 times that of the antiquated An-2. Adding coaxial propellers and a SuperOx electric engine could further improve the max range, and with graphene batteries the max range could even be further improved.

3000km is more than enough for this type of plane, nobody wants to be stuck inside something that small for too long

Get it done and send it into production, leave fancy stuff for bigger planes

PapaDragon wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:......
The new aircraft's max range would be 3,000km while the old An-2's max range in 845 km, so that's a max range increase of 3.6 times that of the antiquated An-2. Adding coaxial propellers and a SuperOx electric engine could further improve the max range, and with graphene batteries the max range could even be further improved.

3000km is more than enough for this type of plane, nobody wants to be stuck inside something that small for too long

Get it done and send it into production, leave fancy stuff for bigger planes

Who said 'someone' has to be stuck in the airplane, an extended range UAV variant would be a cost effective patrol aircraft, the same variant could even be weaponized to fight other UAV/UCAV's.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:......
The new aircraft's max range would be 3,000km while the old An-2's max range in 845 km, so that's a max range increase of 3.6 times that of the antiquated An-2. Adding coaxial propellers and a SuperOx electric engine could further improve the max range, and with graphene batteries the max range could even be further improved.

3000km is more than enough for this type of plane, nobody wants to be stuck inside something that small for too long

Get it done and send it into production, leave fancy stuff for bigger planes

Who said 'someone' has to be stuck in the airplane, an extended range UAV variant would be a cost effective patrol aircraft, the same variant could even be weaponized to fight other UAV/UCAV's.

You can just make a UAV fit for the purpose instead

This is a transport aircraft.