Russian hydrocarbon (Oil and Gas and Coal) Industry: News #4

Gas production and supplies: results for eight months

According to preliminary data, Gazprom produced 288.1 billion cubic meters of gas in January-August 2022. This is a decrease of 14.6 per cent (or 49.1 billion cubic meters) versus the same period of last year.

The domestic demand for the Company's supplies from the gas transmission system went down by 2.9 per cent (or 4.7 billion cubic meters) over said period of 2022.

Gas exports to the countries beyond the FSU amounted to 82.2 billion cubic meters, which is 37.4 per cent (or 49.1 billion cubic meters) lower than the figure for the same period of 2021. Gazprom delivers gas in compliance with confirmed requests.

Gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline keep growing within the framework of the long-term bilateral contract between Gazprom and CNPC. The supplies are regularly in excess of the daily contractual volumes.

Reduction in gas consumption in the European Union became a key factor driving the decline in global gas demand. According to the first preliminary estimates and the available current data, global gas demand dropped by 40 billion cubic meters in the first eight months of this year against the same period of 2021. The 27 countries of the European Union account for 73 per cent, or 29 billion cubic meters, of the reduction in global demand.

Gas consumption went down in the United Kingdom as well, dropping by about 5 billion cubic meters in the said period. Therefore, the EU and the UK account for a total of 85 per cent of the reduction in global gas demand.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, gas reserves contained in Europe's underground gas storage facilities were replenished by 54.2 billion cubic meters as of August 30. Companies will have to inject another 18.2 billion cubic meters of gas into the UGS facilities to get them to the levels observed at the start of the 2019–2020 withdrawal period.

Nevertheless, even getting the UGS facilities of major European countries to almost maximum levels of reserves would not guarantee a reliable performance in the upcoming autumn/winter period.

For instance, Germany's gas consumption in the preceding autumn/winter period (from October 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022) totaled 57 billion cubic meters, i.e. 9.5 billion cubic meters per month on average. Germany's UGS facilities are currently 84 per cent full, and their working gas inventories amount to 18.3 billion cubic meters. This means that the amounts of gas currently contained in Germany's storages are comparable to the average volume that is consumed within two (out of six) months of the autumn/winter period.

Also notable is the level of reserves observed at Ukraine's UGS facilities, which as of August 30 contained 13.1 billion cubic meters of gas out of the 19 billion required for the winter. Ukraine's representatives admit that filling up the storages is possible only in theory rather than in practice.

Transneft exported 82 million tons of oil through sea terminals in 7 months of 2022

Moscow, September 2 - IA Neftegaz.RU. In January-July 2022, Transneft increased the shipment of oil and oil products through sea terminals by 30.2% compared to the same period in 2021, to 82 million tons.
This was announced by Transneft President N. Tokarev in his address to the staff on the occasion of the workers of the oil and gas industry, which was published in the corporate publication of Transneft "Pipeline transport of oil".

Theses from N. Tokarev:
shipment through sea terminals amounted to 82 million tons, which is significantly higher than last year's figures for the same period, when it was 63 million tons,
increased volumes of transportation of oil and oil products within Russia,
in accordance with the wishes of customers, Transneft rebuilt logistics chains,
in some directions, primarily Asian, the volume of deliveries increased,
the main oil pipeline ( MNP ) East Siberia - Pacific Ocean ( ESPO ) is operating at maximum capacity,
all production plans are carried out without significant changes, incl. and with respect to MNP Druzhba, Transneft is successfully coping with the restrictions ,
interaction with the main partners, including the main export directions, has been maintained,
the suspension of exports along the southern line of MNP Druzhba in August was the result of the actions of unfriendly countries, which were guided by political motives,
however, thanks to the immediate and constructive support of Transneft's partners in Hungary, this obstacle was quickly overcome,
this is not only a production achievement, but also a convincing demonstration of the strength of long-term cooperation with colleagues in Europe.

Earlier, Transneft reported that it expects oil transportation in the amount of 458.4 million tons by the end of 2022.
Incl. It was planned to ship 109 mmt of oil by sea compared to 114.2 mmt in 2021. It
was planned to transport 40 mmt of oil to China, which corresponds to the level of 2021.
These plans were announced in mid-February 2022, i.e. before the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine.
Since then, Transneft has practically not disclosed data on the supply of oil and petroleum products for export.
In April 2022, N. Tokarev reported to the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin that the company clearly fulfills all obligations for oil transportationon the territory of Russia and beyond its borders.
At the same time, N. Tokarev noted some possible restrictions on the MNP ESPO system, since the direction is premium and in demand, the highway is fully loaded.

This has long been the plan since Russia has expected the Baltic chihuhas to cut gas supply to the exclave for a long time.

The Gazprom plant at the Portovaya compressor station began to liquefy gas

Moscow. 6 September. INTERFAX.RU - LNG production has begun at the liquefied natural gas plant at the Portovaya compressor station, Gazprom Deputy Chairman Vitaly Markelov said during the Eastern Economic Forum.

According to him, two technological lines are operating, the plant has already produced the first 30,000 tons of LNG. It underwent 72 hour complex tests.

“Now a ship will arrive that will deliver LNG to consumers. Taking into account the situation on the world markets, our LNG will be in demand,” Markelov is sure.

"The first tanker is being loaded," he added in an interview with reporters.

Markelov's presentation says that the LNG plant at Portovaya has completed construction and installation work, on May 30 gas was supplied to technological facilities, the storage facility was ready, and a production line was launched in August.

An LNG plant with a capacity of 1.5 million tons per year is being built on the northeastern coast of the Gulf of Finland, 60 km from Vyborg. The company's products will be used for reserve gas supply to the Kaliningrad region, as well as replenishment of Gazprom's LNG portfolio. The complex includes two liquefaction lines, LNG is stored in an onshore tank (42,000 cubic meters) and a floating storage facility at an offshore export terminal (135,000 cubic meters). transport.

At the Amur Gas Processing Plant, the 3rd technological line is being prepared for launch.

"By the end of the year, we will launch the third production line, and we will launch the remaining three by 2025," Markelov informed.

According to the press service of the Amur GPP, the overall progress on the Amur GPP construction project by the beginning of September 2022 amounted to 86.5%. On the 1st and 2nd production lines, restoration and pre-commissioning work is underway. On the 3rd line, aerodynamic tests of the ventilation system and a comprehensive testing of the air conditioning system are being completed. At GPA "Ladoga" No. 5 and No. 6, commissioning work is underway under load. At the drying and removal of impurities, pipelines are being reassembled and fire protection and insulation are being applied, and pre-commissioning work is underway.

Mikhail Karisalov, Chairman of the Board of OOO SIBUR, said for his part that the readiness status of the Amur Mining and Chemical Combine is 80%.

The deputy chairman of Gazprom informed about the preparation of the gas industry for the upcoming winter: "Our country is almost ready for the autumn-winter period. The country can be calm, it will be warm and light."

N. Shulginov: The Far East will play a key role in the Russian energy sector

Oil and gas condensate production in Russia in 2022 is expected to reach 514 million tons, gas - 710 billion m3, coal - 412 million tons.

Moscow, September 6 - IA Neftegaz.RU. The Russian oil and gas industry is coping with external pressure by reorienting export flows to the East.
This was announced by the head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation N. Shulginov in an interview with TASS as part of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) on September 5, 2022.
Russian oil and gas sector in new conditions
The Russian oil and gas sector is coping with the pressure exerted by the West by adapting to new conditions and challenges, incl. to the coming into force EU oil embargo (ban from December 5, 2022, sea imports of Russian oil, from February 5, 2023 - oil products), the planned ban on insurance of sea transportation of Russian oil, the introduction of marginal prices for Russian oil, etc.
Problems and difficulties arise, but they are gradually overcome.

Theses from N. Shulginov :
we cope, the oil and gas complex adapts to the pressure,
oil is currently growing, but by the end of 2022, production is likely to be slightly lower than in 2021 - by about 2%,
we expect an 8% decline in oil refining, based on the current trend, there will be about 262 million tons for the year,
as for gas, it will be reduced by about 7%,
pipeline exports will fall, liquefied natural gas (LNG) will remain at 2021 levels,
since the beginning of 2022, we have observed a decrease in coal production by about 0.7%, by the end of the year it will already be about 6% compared to 2021 due to the impact of the embargo on the supply of coal to the EU,
inspires optimism that there is interest in our coal - China, India, the Middle East are increasing their purchases, so we do not expect a strong drop,
there are logistical restrictions, and they may not allow reaching the level of 2021, but getting closer to it is already real,
the energy consumption of industry, small and medium-sized businesses, the population, the own needs of power plants, taking into account losses in electrical networks, is now growing by 1.9% by 2021.
against the background of the heat, we overcame the summer historical maximum, I think that we will hold on to the growth level of about 1.5% by the end of the year,
of course, there are difficulties with the reconfiguration of logistics schemes and maintenance of equipment,
now the task is to ensure current plans, incl. adaptation, there will be investments for this (on investment plans in the Russian fuel and energy complex),
it can be said with confidence that the companies fulfill their obligations: they fully meet the needs of the domestic market and the terms of export contracts,
Now everything is stable (with ensuring the work of the domestic market), there are no problems with deliveries, prices are in place, we are monitoring this.
we will find solutions in December and February (on the impact of the EU oil embargo),
(on the impact of a potential ban on insurance of sea transportation of Russian oil) we are exploring the possibility of using a number of local insurance companies from friendly countries, another option is to create a new insurance company, incl. Russian, but then you need mutual recognition by the countries of this organization
this is not a fast process (about redirecting energy flows to the east),
Of course, we also have swift victories, for example, by October we will expand the capacity of the port of Kozmino for cargo transshipment in the amount of up to +7 million tons per year, as well as the infrastructure leading to it,
In addition to the Asia-Pacific Region (APR), the Middle East is promising for us, but we are also looking at other areas, such as Africa,
The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation is in the process of postponing the preparation of the Energy Strategy until 2050: from September 15, 2022 to mid-2023,
Now there are a lot of uncertainties, and it is important for us to make an up-to-date and optimal strategy.

In 2021, the production of oil and gas condensate in Russia in 2021 amounted to 524.0 million tons, the production of natural and associated petroleum gas (APG) - 763.5 billion m 3 , the export of pipeline gas - 205.6 billion m 3 , LNG - 29.1 million tons.
Based on the statements of N. Shulginov, oil and gas condensate production in Russia in 2022 can be expected at the level of 514 million tons.
Gas production is expected at the level of 710 billion m 3 , it is difficult to estimate the volume of pipeline gas exports due to uncertainty around Nord Stream and other gas supply routes to Europe.
As for LNG exports, expectations remain the same, since the West did not impose restrictions on LNG supplies from Russia, but technological sanctions slowed down the Arctic LNG-2 project, the launch of which is nowexpected in 2023.
Coal production in 2022 is expected in the amount of 412 million tons.
Gas reversal to the east
EU plans to phase out Russian gas will not be easy to implement.
In April 2022, speaking about the need to diversify the export of energy resources, President of the Russian Federation V. Putin urged to proceed from the fact that in the foreseeable future, the supply of energy resources to the west will be reduced.
However, the refusal of Russian supplies may be unbearable for Europe, since this will mean a completely different standard of living for Europeans.
It is difficult to deploy pipeline gas supplies to the east, but work in this direction is underway.

Theses from N. Shulginov:
to do this, they must be sure that they will be able to do this by 2027 (on EU plans to refuse Russian gas supplies),
the situation with spot prices confirms that it is not so easy, Europe has no one to rely on except the Americans, who are increasing LNG production,
the coming winter will show how real the EU's belief in the possibility of abandoning Russian gas is, because this will lead to a halt in the industry, incl. chemical, gas generation, it will be a completely new life for Europeans,
I think that, most likely, they will not be able to refuse, it is too much for them,
(on compensation for falling volumes of Russian gas supplies for export) the capacity of Power of Siberia-2, according to the plan, should be almost 50 billion m3 / year,
design materials are now almost ready for the start of construction of a gas pipeline to China through Mongolia (the main gas pipeline (MGP) Soyuz Vostok, a continuation of the MGP Power of Siberia-2 on the territory of Mongolia),
we will increase the capacity not only of pipelines, we will increase LNG production, we will change the policy and strive to maintain basic production volumes, we have reserves,
the share of LNG in Russia's energy production will grow,
LNG incl. go to the ATP
By 2030, LNG production in Russia is expected to grow to 80-100 million tons/year against the current 30 million tons/year.
Far East projects
The unification of the energy systems of Siberia and the East, as well as the connection of the gas supply system with the MGP Power of Siberia-1 and Sakhalin - Khabarovsk - Vladivostok will radically change the picture of the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District.
This will ensure the development of the region's economy and the implementation of new projects.
Problems that have arisen on existing projects, incl. within the framework of production sharing agreements (PSA) on the shelf of about. Sakhalin, decide.

Theses from N. Shulginov:
of course (to the question about the relevance of the unification of the energy systems of Siberia and the East),
we have a presidential order, and we have already prepared a construction schedule,
by 2028, we plan to combine 220 kV networks, and later 500 kV,
here the project of the Eastern range of Russian Railways and the construction of network facilities for it help us a lot,
After its implementation, the task is greatly simplified, because we will only have to continue the construction of networks to the East, as a result we will receive an exchange power flow of 350-450 MW, which will ensure a reliable energy supply to consumers, transfer electricity from the Far East to Siberia during low water periods and extend market pricing mechanisms for electricity,
The Far East will play a key role in the Russian energy sector - the MGP Power of Siberia-2, the expansion of the Eastern test site, the development of coal mining, the development of the gas potential of Eastern Siberia, as well as the gasification of the Trans-Baikal, Irkutsk Territories, the Jewish Autonomous Region, Buryatia,
the mere connection of the gas supply system with the Power of Siberia and the Sakhalin - Khabarovsk - Vladivostok gas pipeline will radically change the picture of the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District,
on Sakhalin-2, all necessary measures have been taken to prevent deterioration of its operation, an operator has been created - Sakhalin Energy,
I do not expect any problems with this project, the operator is working, the project is functioning,
some companies have declared their desire to enter Sakhalin Energy, no one has officially notified about the exit, I think clarity will appear in the coming days,
the introduction of a mechanism for the sale of LNG from Sakhalin-2 for rubles is currently not being discussed, as is the transfer of LNG trade into rubles in general,
for Sakhalin-1, the story is already more complicated, because production was stopped, from our point of view, under a far-fetched pretext,
work is underway with the operator and consortium members to restore production as quickly as possible,
I think everything should become clear soon.

Moscow. September 7th. INTERFAX.RU - All the main parameters of the deal with China regarding gas supplies via the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline (volume up to 50 billion cubic meters per year), including the price, have been agreed, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a plenary meeting of the Eastern Economic Forum.

The "Power of Siberia 2" mainline is planned to be built from the main for Russia in the 21st century - the Yamal - gas production center (Bovanenkovskoye, Kharasaveyskoye and others). The route of the future gas pipeline may run from the Bovanenkovo ​​group through the Gulf of Ob to Novy Urengoy (the historic Nadym-Pur-Taz region of Gazprom's production) and through the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Irkutsk Region to Mongolia.