Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14

caveat emptor wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:The US is on borrowed time

Who will last longer? Russia in SMO? Or DNC for 2 more months?

Once the DNC loses their majority position, the US war in Ukraine is over

You are underestimating willingness for war of US establishment. There is a group of voters among both parties that wants US to exit never ending wars, but politicians from both parties are not at all different when it comes to war. Both are getting paid a lot of money by MIC and that will not change in near future. 
In this particular case betting so openly on Ukraine, might provide a blowback in longer term. We will see if this administration has made a strategic mistake, but that's another story.

It's one and the same

The war in Ukraine, for America has economic implications

And it was always economic

They wanted gas sales to the EU, and control over trade routes into Asia

They have lost that and counted on beating Russia economically

It's day 71 and the ruble is close to 60 per USD

They are talking about an oil embargo, while Brent crude surges past 110 per barrel

At the same time US diesel prices have surged past 5 per gallon

The US is imploding

The FED is slowing their economy down to stave off recession

Ukraine for them is going lower in priority and they have to concede to their own defeat economically to Russia

Trumps men won primaries, as much as people don't want to look at this

This is how SVR fights the non linear war

And just so you know Caveat Emptor

The war establishment was thrown out after poor economic performance in 2008

They went from 8 year window, to 4 years with trump

To 2 years with biden

You think it's a joke? As Americans about food security

They are literally running short on food in groceries

In Russia it doesn't happen

Also look at US housing,

This has everything to do with Ukraine

US logistics to Ukraine is slowing, already Biden went to the Javelin factory and they told him they cannot make more as they are running low on microchips and processors

The Georgian president laughed at the idea of sending weapons to Ukraine

Realize that the ground is opening beneath Yankee feet

I myself have never seen anything like this before

Biden visits Lockheed plant as weapons stockpile strained

Analysts also estimate that the United States has sent about one-quarter of its stockpile of shoulder-fired Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investors last week during a quarterly call that his company, which makes the weapons system, wouldn’t be able to ramp up production until next year, due to parts shortages.

“Could this be a problem? The short answer is, ‘Probably, yes,’” said Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and former Office of Management and Budget specialist on Pentagon budget strategy, war funding and procurement programs.

He added that Stingers and Javelins were where “we’re seeing the most significant inventory issues” and that production of both weapons systems has been limited in recent years.

The US industry is running out of parts for stingers and javelins

https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2022/05/03/biden-visits-lockheed-plant-as-weapons-stockpile-strained/

caveat emptor wrote:I live in US. I see what is going on. Some of the things you say, i agree with, but then you go completely crazy with some of the theories. There's no doubt in my mind that US in 2022 is not the same country as when i arrived. It is obvious that country is in crisis. This administration is probably the worst that i remember.
There's a realistic chance that democratics will lose midterms due to economic problems. That will not change  anything in regards to Ukraine. Only new administration could do that, but that is too far away and i hope war ends much before that. You can be sure, regardless of who win seats in congress, money flow for arming Ukraine will continue. It makes too much sense for MIC and hence for both parties.

Well agree to disagree

If the pentagon is running out of semiconductors for javelins, then money isn't the only problem

In fact it's both an industrial and economic problem

And realistic chance? at this point assured

Do you remember in 2016, the biggest worry of the establishment at that time was Ukraine

When Trump got power, Ukraine became irrelevant

The same thing is happening again , it's just more frequent in that it didn't take 4 years

By this summer Biden will be a lame duck

The europeans without Democrat support are basically fucked

They will cave to Russia

Everything is depending on solid republican wins

For Russia right now, it's the most important thing

Not bullshit like some suggest about mobilizing manpower

This shit is dumb to discuss

The most important thing to Russia today, and the intelligence services

Is a transition of power in Washington DC by congressional elections

The neutering of Biden and his administration will do more to force Zelensky to negotiations then any other limp brained schemes hatched by the "navy seal" and cubans on the forum

And so you know the figure behind the curtain is Peter Thiel, he is an American oligarch who led Palantir

Our intelligence has done research, a guy like that doesn't flip sides and leave the board of Meta to fund anti Chinese politicians

For the simpleton, the operations near kramatorsk take precedence

For true enthusiast of geopolitics, the battle is taking place in America

Ukraine can afford to send much much more men to the front, if the russian force takes enough losses to the point it can not conduct proper battles anymore.

Ukraine does not have an infinite supply of men, and Russia is fighting in a way to minimise loses on their own side and maximise the loses on the other side.

If they start running low on Russian soldiers you do understand they can withdraw a unit and replace it with a full unit... this is not the entire Russian military being engaged here.

That forces Putin to make a choice, give up or conduct a full scale mobilization.

I doubt they would bother consulting Putin, they are likely rotating some forces through to give them experience anyway...

I suspect Ukraine hopes if they kill just enough russians that will force Putin's hand, as they probably think he will not risk serving backlash from Russian people going full-scale war mode.

The forces they are sending forward are hastily trained conscripts rushing forward to kill zones in front of Russian positions with no Orc air or artillery support but against Russian forces with extensive artillery and air support... they will have been trying to kill as many Russians as they could from the get go but it wont be as easy for them as you might suggest considering the current balance of forces and the terrain currently being held and fought over.

In the end, there is a path to victory that Ukraine can get, its a very specific and narrow point but its entirely possible.

Not really... there would have to be huge fundamental changes in their tactics and armament and their ability to start causing serious damage to the Russian forces, and if that happened the obvious response would be to simply start hammering eastern and northern Ukraine with all sorts of heavy shit... the west has already claimed the Russians are committing genocide... but of course the Orcs are in no position to start winning... it would be like saying Afghanistan merely needs to lose 90% of its male population via suicide bombers each taking out one American soldier at a time and that is all they need to do to win... 90% of the male population of any country are not that stupid.

For a start the Afghans probably wouldn't have that much explosive to carry out such a thing, but from a purely human point of view who would suggest to them that that would be a good idea... it would have to be someone who hated Afghans.

Fully agree and it is only path that Ukraine is following right now, so yes there is big danger for Russia, the longer conflict persist the longer risk is that Russia will need additional forces and full mobilization.

According to Kiev this conflict has been going since 2014... it will take as long as it takes... right now Russian losses are acceptable and sustainable... and necessary.

If you look at WW2 from a demographics perspective, the Germans won that war. Russia has not been able to recover from the 27 million + blow, and it shows, even today, capping economic potential.

Germany won that war? The brutally murdered civilians wholesale, it was a genocide... from a soverignty perspective Germany abstained at the UN regarding the banning of promoting Nazi ideology... Germany does not exist... it is just a province of the US... it is not even a state because a state would get a vote.

I wonder how many volumes the lessons learned book will be after this is over?

Depends on who writes it and who reads it...

It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

Yeah yeah yeah, if the turret is turned to the back it was probably ambushed, but the rear vehicle should always have its turret facing back shouldn't it?

Counter battery fire ineffective?  Of course when an armoured force comes under enemy artillery fire it is standard procedure for the counter battery fire to start by shooting down each individual shell the enemy artillery fired in their initial attack... how do you know the source of the fire wasn't obliterated?

Let me guess... if the left turning indicator was blinking then it is Putins fault for not training the crew properly and if the right indicator is going then it was the Popes fault for not clearing this mission with Jesus...

It might have been a land mine... it clearly burned out...

More seriously this war as well as the other modern ones show how vehicles are easy to destroy. Making them expensive and state of art is useless. Even with APS they will be easy targets.

Another surprising thing is that laser guided mkssiles are mostly used yet the tank's laser warning sensor never spot them. There was no recorded case of smoke grenade being employed by tanks. Neither russians nor nato tanks.

To be fair we have no idea how many times that T-90 has been hit in this war... it might have been hit this time for the first time or it might have been hit dozens of times... what we do know is that the Orcs have tens of thousands of anti armour weapons... not just HATO ones but the ones they already had which were pretty good too... the fact that the Russians still seem to have armoured vehicles seem to suggest the idea that tanks are easy to destroy might not be a good universal rule.

The war also showed how man portable weapons and soldiers are still the best tool out there.

Except there seem to be way more Ukrainian armoured vehicles destroyed than Russian vehicles... they have not even stopped their attacks anywhere with these super weapons...

Suggests artillery is more mobile and devastating too.

Something seem not to be working well with the lack of volume of sorties. they seem to be using about 5% of their air power to be honest.

Kiev sqealing demanding no fly zones suggest it is good enough...

Why don't anybody bother with even elementary research? The search term "Ukrainian mortar" on Yandex gave me that old video immediately.

That looked like he was putting a 60mm mortar bomb into an 82mm mortar... depending on the round that would have been a bad thing anyway because even dropping it tail first I doubt the firing pin would make contact with the primer on the base of the tail but if it managed to do so the propellent gas would blow up the tube past the bomb which would drop a few feet in front of the mortar and explode anyway...

It is from 2017, but it does not change the possibility that the guy was really killed.

I would say he probably was and if there was a cameraman he probably was too unless he set the camera up himself in which case that would be how they worked out what happened.

Probably the reason Russian armor doesn't have widely deployed APS. Too expensive. I'm no military expert but I have been saying for years that armor absent APS on the modern battlefield is an expensive metal coffin.

It is not the panacea that most people think it is... it wont stop mines or IEDs, and is useless for light armoured vehicles or unarmoured vehicles like trucks.

But it would certainly crank the cost of the operation up.

But more pressingly, the Russians have failed to pin down Ukrainian forces in Kiev since those forces have successfully crossed the dnepr and deployed in the Donbass

They left the cauldrons open so they could fill them up... they probably got a few on the way but any that made it entered the trap...

In a built up area they would be sitting ducks with bolt actions. AK-74 would leave them no chance. In fields - I would argue, but that's just insane.

They wont be on their own... I would say in a built up area with enemy troops moving from window to window or from building to building the chance of a shot is short and the chance of two shots very unlikely so a bolt action is not a problem.

Out in fields the power of the round means you can be shooting at targets at 600m plus where if you hit you can still kill very easily, but they wont be hitting you with 5.45mm calibre weapons.

Carrying a Mosin rifle is not a terrible idea as a sniper weapon and you can improve your chances by carrying an AKS-74U as a short range backup.

Don't tell me Russia has shortage of SVD to donate?

Hunters probably have brought their own rifles and are familiar with them.

SVD is not the same and much more intensive to keep clean.

Sorry for the rant, but I am not the only one who thinks that Russia needs to go balls deep and end it here and now and then deal with monetary consequences.

There is no quick fix and spending money now wont make a huge amount of difference.

Keep in mind there will be Russian special forces all over the place there... you start sending thermals to cooks and drivers and they start firing at their own ghosts...

I also think that some sort of mobilization would need to be proclaimed. It looks like they have to learn everything the hard way.

They are getting the job done very well at the moment... sending in more troops makes no sense if the troops that are there are doing the job... more bodies in country just means more support convoys for the orcs to attack and more targets for them to engage and consequently more groups that need artillery and air power to defend them.

Judging by 0 russian advance from the south, probably most of them made it through.

They didn't move from their position... perhaps nothing reached them to require them to move.

they are holding the cauldrons open to let Kiev fill them with more bodies... is that the wrong thing to do?

Keep in mind I understand Russian, and I see the rage Russians have and slurs they're using against the Russian army command. Do you claim to know more than Russians who are directly affected by the Tuvan's wartime strategy and (lack of) procurement?

Well why not... if Russians can bitch about their stupid military why can't we bitch about stupid Russians thinking they know better than their own army command...

Sounds cynical and I feel sorry because of this tragedy, but certainly Russia warned the ukies n times that being the West's cheap bitches would not have a happy ending with wedding and honeymoon for them.

The situation was going to be Ukraine is part of HATO and hosting US missiles and probably wanting to invade and take Crimea and Donbass and Lugansk... the current situation seems to be Crimea and Donbass and Lugansk will be fine and the entire Orc southern coast will be joining them... whether the east or north of the country join to... who cares... rat infested shitholes.... let the US occupy them... they wont pay a cent to help them and as they decay and collapse the rest of the Ukraine can grow and develop with trade with Russia and investment too... but investment isn't charity... investment delivers dividends.

If radios, NVGs or thermals were not procured it was not because MoF wouldn't pay for it but because big wigs in the Military (in their infinite stupidity) didn't think they need them so they didn't ask for them

Having NVGs and Thermals arrive in the middle of a war is not ideal because you need to train to use them properly.... contrary to western opinion western combat does not often take place at night except in exceptional circumstances because night combat is complex and difficult to manage... working out friend and foe is hard during the day time... at night it is even harder... without training it makes more sense to remain in place during the night and move during daylight hours.

Of course if there are enemy snipers then thermals are handy for spotting them day or night...

And no one one knows atm how many men russia has lost vs Ukraine. again Ukraine doesn't need to kill all of them not even half, they just need to get a big enough dent which is entirely feasible.

If this was for fun then I would agree, but this is a necessary conflict that Russia is not going to just walk away from because it is just getting too costly.

They will get the job done and then it will be over.

Trumps candidates have won primary elections. No doubt our SVR and FSB are working to ensure a favorable electoral result for us

During his time in office Trump did nothing to dial back the nazis and bio weapons labs in Ukraine... I wouldn't bother wasting him thinking he would be any better.

Everyone here also thought the ukies would collapse in a week and that assessment proved accurate alright -sarcasm-

After a week I am pretty sure most pro Putin members here were still a bit shocked that he started this attack.

Of course later on when it became clear about all the shit the US was doing to make this war happen it became clear why it happened and why it was necessary to happen.

The problem is that Zelensky cares less about the Ukrainian people than Putin does, which means the Ukrainian people need to stop this war themselves by kicking their 5th column out... bullets in the backs of heads of all those Americans in Kievs administration would be a good start... any chance they got.... boom... it would not take long for more people to start doing that and the nazis finding themselves isolated and under the gun and then they will run to the west with as much money as they can steal and then Ukrainians can start saving Ukrainian lives and end this.

I doubt Zelensky can be any part of a peace process.

But Ukrainians need to do this.

Atm I do not think Ukraine will cave first, they might but unlikely IMO. The russians would need like 30 to 1 rates for that and I don't say any record of them pulling these numbers

Russia is doing this to protect Russias future... the Ukrainians are doing this because the US orders them to with the promise of joining HATO and the EU further down the track... after all their men are dead...

It's one and the same

The war in Ukraine, for America has economic implications

Not to mention the rest of the world sees western media reporting of the war and Russian reporting of the war and probably think that perhaps they are talking about different conflicts all together...

Western media is all lies... what does that suggest about western politicians and economists and historians etc etc etc...

You can be sure, regardless of who win seats in congress, money flow for arming Ukraine will continue. It makes too much sense for MIC and hence for both parties.

As long as it remains as ineffectual as it has then that is OK...

https://www.russiadefence.net/t8786-russian-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-15