Russian Civil Aviation: News #5

Kiko wrote:Russia as an export mainly driven economy is the benefit of a  weak ruble, now that Russian inflation is under strict control.

MS-21 will cost several times cheaper than Western competitors, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 04.26.2023.

The domestic liner MS-21 will cost at least half the price of its Western competitors - Boeing and Airbus aircraft. Its price is initially lower, plus the state wants to consciously support the aviation industry so that airlines do not have to sharply increase the cost of air tickets due to the huge costs of updating the fleet. There are no problems with the demand for a new domestic liner.

The cost of the domestic aircraft MS-21, which will replace the main aircraft of Western concerns in the fleets of airlines, has been named. “The cost of new MS-21s for Aeroflot and other carriers will be significantly lower than the market. This is a conscious step by the state, which wants to reduce the burden on airlines - and, consequently, on passengers whose ticket prices include a lease payment. This is being done on purpose so that at a difficult moment for the industry, airlines can afford the purchase of new equipment, and domestic transportation develops,” said Sergey Chemezov, head of Rostec.

He did not name a specific price. However, a TASS source in state structures says that the cost of the new MS-21 aircraft will be about 3 billion rubles for Russian airlines, while a similar Boeing costs 5-6 billion rubles.

The state will help the aviation industry partially compensate for the cost of aircraft, Chemezov stressed. “Similar approaches work in many countries, in the same Europe or China, where the authorities deliberately subsidize the cost of aircraft for carriers in order to maintain a competitive price level,” said the head of Rostec.

....

https://vz.ru/economy/2023/4/26/1209132.html

GarryB wrote:That all ignores options like setting up production for some types in other countries... Iran is keeping Russias Boeings and Airbuses flying at the moment so why not set up some production facilities there to build some aircraft too.

Iran was making Antonovs... why not let them make some Ilyusions instead?

Having foreign production would help get aircraft made for the Russian airlines, but also get them available for export as well.

The longer Russian planes are absent from export markets the more Airbus and Boeing will take advantage.

GarryB wrote:That all ignores options like setting up production for some types in other countries... Iran is keeping Russias Boeings and Airbuses flying at the moment so why not set up some production facilities there to build some aircraft too.

Iran was making Antonovs... why not let them make some Ilyusions instead?

Having foreign production would help get aircraft made for the Russian airlines, but also get them available for export as well.

The longer Russian planes are absent from export markets the more Airbus and Boeing will take advantage.

Edit.we need to look at the cost per hour of flight, including fuel consumption and engine overhauls

At the Aviakor plant they spoke about the current work and prospects of the enterprise
05.05.2023

Samara plant "Aviakor" after the decommissioning of the Tu-154 will switch to servicing other types of aircraft, including imported ones. The company expects that the remaining 25 Tu-154 aircraft will be operated for at least 5-10 years. About itsaysin the company's annual report, cited by TASS.

“There is no potential for further development of this line of business due to the fact that the aircraft developer does not intend to further modify the Tu-154 project. However, since about 25 more Tu-154 aircraft will be in operation in state aviation for at least 5-10 years, the enterprise will provide operating organizations with spare parts and carry out major repairs in accordance with the requirements of operational documentation. But given that this type of aircraft will be decommissioned in the future, it is planned to replace this type of business with maintenance and repair of other types of aircraft, including, possibly, imported ones,” the report says.

The document also states that Aviakor may resume the An-140 aircraft construction program, which was stopped in 2015 due to the refusal of cooperation by Ukrainian enterprises, subject to import substitution of components. The main part of the suppliers and the developer of the aircraft, the Antonov State Enterprise, are located in Ukraine, after the 2014 coup d'état, cooperation between Ukrainian enterprises and Russian customers was terminated at the initiative of Kyiv.

“... taking into account the refusal of Ukrainian enterprises to cooperate, the An-140 aircraft construction program has now been stopped. But the company is ready to carry out maintenance and repair of this type of aircraft to maintain its operation. In the case of the implementation of the program of import substitution of components and systems of the An-140 aircraft, the enterprise is ready to resume the production of these aircraft,” the report says.

Aviacor is one of the largest Russian aircraft manufacturing enterprises. Previously, the plant produced the most massive Soviet jet passenger aircraft Tu-154. In 2003, the plant began production of An-140 turboprop aircraft, in 2015 the program for the production of these aircraft was suspended due to the situation in Ukraine. Now the plant is engaged in the overhaul and maintenance of the Tu-154 and An-140, as well as the supply of components for various types of aircraft.

Since March 2022, Aviacor has been participating in the cooperation of Russian enterprises to create the TVRS-44 Ladoga aircraft. Under a contract with the Ural Civil Aviation Plant, the Samara enterprise must manufacture four fuselages for testing and certification of the aircraft. The first of these four fuselages will be demonstrated in 2023.

lancelot wrote:The An-74 used to be produced at PC Polyot in Omsk. I agree that once they have the PD-8 and all the Russified components for the Superjet it will quite likely not be that hard to design and make a replacement for the Soviet An-74 without Ukrainian components.

The An-140 uses engines based on the Klimov TV3-117. Russia has the VK-2500. They would need to design a turboprop variant of the VK-2500 if they want to manufacture the An-140.

I do not get why they want so many redundant aircraft. Especially when they have their own Il-112 design. Using foreign designs is only going to get them in trouble with licenses when they try to export these aircraft.

lancelot wrote:I meant the Il-114. My mistake.

It all seems kind of pointless to me. All these different aircraft. Only going to make maintenance worse, and the short production runs will make the factories uneconomic. There was a plan for a shortened version of the Il-114, the Il-114-300, which would have the same performance as the An-140 or the TVRS-44. Just fund that.

lancelot wrote:I meant the Il-114. My mistake.

It all seems kind of pointless to me. All these different aircraft. Only going to make maintenance worse, and the short production runs will make the factories uneconomic. There was a plan for a shortened version of the Il-114, the Il-114-300, which would have the same performance as the An-140 or the TVRS-44. Just fund that.

Sukhoi in the balance. Check in April-May 2024
05/10/2023

If it is not possible to master the repair of the hot part of the SaM146 engines, then, according to the calculations of the Irkut Corporation and the UEC, by the end of 2030, out of more than 150 SSJ100 aircraft in operation, only 28 aircraft will remain. About it told "Kommersant".

The SaM146 engine was created jointly by the French concern Safran and the Russian NPO Saturn. Repair of the hot part (gas generator) of the engine was carried out only in France.

According to some industry interlocutors of the publication, those SSJ100s that have been actively flying since the spring of 2022 will begin to “get up” en masse in a year. Airlines do not seriously count on the remotorization of aircraft for PD-8 engines, which can cost 200-500 billion rubles. for the entire fleet, and hope to arrange engine repairs in Iran. If the work on the hot part is mastered, then it will be possible to save 106 aircraft, follows from the Irkut letter sent to the carriers, to which the publication refers.

On February 8, 2023, during the NAIS-2023 exhibition, the UAC CEO said that the replacement of the SaM146 engines, including the cost of the turbines themselves, is comparable to the residual cost of the SSJ100 aircraft. Technically, it is possible to implement the remotorization of the aircraft, unresolved issues with airlines and the state, these are economic issues, Yuri Slyusar emphasized. In particular, the "significant cost" of the new PD-8s, he said.

Yuri Slyusar said that there are several dozen SaM146 engines in reserve. But they are not planned to be installed on SSJ-New aircraft, since these engines are needed to maintain the existing fleet of SSJ100 aircraft.

The Rostec Group of Companies denied a sharp reduction in the fleet of Superjet 100 aircraft by 2030. The state corporation reported that Kommersant refers to old calculations that were made in 2022 in order to provide, among other things, the most negative scenarios.

“Today is May 2023 and it is already obvious that this will not happen. UAC, Irkut and colleagues from other companies are doing everything to ensure that the country is provided with aircraft, and that the current fleet is serviced and continues to fly. Complicated systematic work on import substitution is underway, our own components and assemblies are being created. The possibility of remotorization on the PD-8 is being discussed, but we need to look at how economically feasible it is," Rostec commented and recalled that the SaM146 engines will be able to fly for a long time - Rostec and UAC intend to carry out all the necessary maintenance of these power plants independently.

"Let's handle it ourselves, without the West" - summed up Rostec in its tg-channel.

The article in "Kommersant" is called "Sukhoi in the Balance". In the summer of 2024, it will be clear whether the interlocutors of the publication were right and whether they correctly predicted the cessation of flights of part of the Superjets in about a year.

05/10/2023
Sukhoi in the balance
The manufacturer predicts a five-fold reduction in the SSJ-100 fleet by 2030

As Kommersant found out, the Irkut corporation and the UEC have calculated that by the end of 2030 only 28 “old” Superjets out of more than 150 will remain in operation if it is not possible to master the repair of the hot part of the foreign engines installed on the aircraft. Manufacturers have asked airlines to estimate the number of SSJs that should be replaced with the expected domestically produced PD-8s. According to some of Kommersant's interlocutors in the industry, those SSJs that have been actively flying since the spring of 2022 will begin to "get up" en masse in a year. Airlines do not seriously count on remotorization, which could cost 200-500 billion rubles for the entire fleet, and hope to arrange engine repairs in Iran.

As it became known to Kommersant, by the end of 2030, only 28 SSJ-100 aircraft may remain in operation due to the exhaustion of the service life of the Russian-French SaM-146 engines installed on them. Such a forecast “in the context of a shortage of replacement engines and the inability to repair its “hot part”” was made by the aircraft manufacturer Irkut Corporation and the United Engine Corporation (UEC, both of which are part of Rostec). If work on the hot part is mastered, then 106 aircraft will be saved on the wing, follows from a letter from Irkut (Kommersant has it) sent to carriers.

The aircraft manufacturer asked SSJ operators to report how many aircraft, in their opinion, it would be economically feasible to remotorise on the domestic PD-8, which the UEC is currently developing for SSJ-NEW.

The French Safran was responsible for servicing, designing and manufacturing parts for the hot part of the SaM-146 engine, which in March 2022 stopped its participation in the JV with PowerJet UEC. Deliveries of PD-8 are expected from 2024.

Irkut’s letter states that remotorization, “taking into account a significant amount of costs”, which in each case, in addition to engines, also includes the replacement of engine nacelles, the revision of pylons and wing box, the on-board cable network and auxiliary power plant systems, is expected with the involvement of state support measures . Its amount is not indicated.

The cost of a set of two engines is usually estimated at 50-60% of the price of a new aircraft. With the cost of the SSJ-100 at the end of 2021 about 2–2.5 billion rubles, the new engine, according to the most minimal estimates, will cost 1.3–1.8 billion rubles. There are about 150 Superjets in the fleet of Russian carriers today. Thus, the purchase of new PD-8s for 120 SaM-146 expired aircraft will cost 160–220 billion rubles. According to a number of Kommersant's interlocutors in airlines, in reality, taking into account all the necessary work, the price will be at least 1.5–2 times higher. “SaM-146 was mass-produced with the participation of the world’s largest engine builder”, says another Kommersant interlocutor, believing that “a PD-8 assembled from scratch will be much more expensive.”

Hopes of the aviation industry

The Ministry of Transport, in the aviation industry development strategy drawn up in the summer of 2022, assumed that all 170 short-haul aircraft (including SSJ, Yak-42 and Embraer) would remain on the wing by 2030. Irkut explained to Kommersant that their updated forecast and survey of operators reflect "efforts aimed at maintaining the stable operation of the SSJ-100 fleet." “It must be understood that some aircraft will inevitably retire from service over time, so our task is to make this process as predictable and planned as possible, to synchronize it with the supply of new domestic SSJ-NEW aircraft so that operators can maintain their carrying capacity,” noted in "Irkut". They added that, according to preliminary data from the airlines, "there is interest in the remotorization of the SSJ-100 fleet."

However, according to Irkut, if a decision on remotorization is made, an increase in the production of PD-8 will be required, since "the current capacities are primarily focused on the production of new SSJ-NEW aircraft."

The UEC told Kommersant that "the question of the economic feasibility of remotorization is still open." “We are open to dialogue with interested parties to discuss the timing and volume of deliveries of PD-8, if there is sufficient funding”, they noted, adding that they are doing “everything necessary to maintain the SaM-146 engines in working order in accordance with the approved schedules.”

A source close to Rostec assured that the specialists “have solutions and conditions that will allow them to continue operating the current fleet of SSJs with SaM-146 engines for a sufficiently long period.” “By this moment, a fairly large fleet of new Russian aircraft will appear, and the topic of remotorization will cease to be relevant,” he says.

Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, December 22, 2022:

"Remotorization in principle requires significant financial costs, and the economic feasibility for operators and lessors remains in the focus of attention."

Motor dilemma

According to one of Kommersant's interlocutors in the aviation industry, the position of the operators "in general terms boils down to a readiness to change engines if this happens at public expense." The final calculation of the sides for remotorization, according to him, has not been carried out: “The situation is a stalemate: either change for the entire fleet, or repair for the entire fleet.” The Association of Air Transport Operators turned to the Ministry of Transport with a request to provide subsidies for remotorization (see “Kommersant” dated April 10). But, according to some Kommersant sources in airlines, the industry no longer believes in the idea of ​​remotorization: “There is no such money, and it is technically difficult.”

In addition, many interlocutors of Kommersant are skeptical about the ability of the UEC to increase the production of PD-8 engines to replace the SaM-146. According to the strategy of the Ministry of Transport, the planned production of PD-8 until 2030 will be 314 engines for 142 SSJ-NEW announced by that time, which is barely enough to form a full-fledged replacement pool for new aircraft. Now, according to various estimates, 10–14 SaM-146s remain in the replacement pool (not counting the separate Aeroflot pool). Rostec and UEC do not comment on these figures.

Few also believe in the likelihood of mastering the repair of the hot part of the SaM-146. “In our opinion, all conceivable human and financial resources of the UEC are thrown at PD-8”, one of Kommersant’s interlocutors explains. Three sources of Kommersant expect that the authority to extend the life and overhaul of the SaM-146 will be transferred to Iranian technical centers, where "40 years of experience with foreign engines have been accumulated" (see also Kommersant of April 14) .

Take care of the engine

Most SSJ-100 operators declined official comment. But, according to several interlocutors of Kommersant in airlines and the aviation industry, if the repair of the hot part of the SaM-146 is not mastered, the pessimistic scenario of Irkut may come true even before 2030. According to Kommersant's sources, in about a year, the engines of the SSJ Azimuth, Red Wings and IrAero, which flew a lot in 2022, may require an extension of the resource or "stand up". The relatively low flight time of SSJs from their largest operator, Rossiya, will probably allow them to be used before overhaul for three to four years, industry interlocutors believe. The average flight time of small SSJ operators in certain months was on average 2–3 times higher than the flight time of Rossiya, which “could afford to save resources and fly thriftily,” says a Kommersant source in the aviation industry.

A separate question is how airlines will pay for leasing if their SSJs are unable to continue flying due to the exhaustion of their engines.

According to Kommersant, now 46 SSJs belong to GTLK, 45 to PSB, another 39 to VEB.RF, and 20 to SberLeasing. Kommersant's source at STLC specified that by 2030, 22 aircraft would remain under lease, the rest of the lessors refrained from commenting.

The industry is arguing about the pace of creating an import-substituting SSJ

Officially, Rossiya announced that the aircraft leaving due to the end of the lease will be replaced in a timely manner by the new SSJ-NEW and MS-21. In total, Aeroflot Group expects to receive 210 MS-21s and 89 SSJs by 2030. A Kommersant source close to the management of Rossiya noted that all 78 SSJs in its fleet - from one year to 10 years old - are on lease, "the term of which for most boards will end before 2030." The issue of remotorization, he added, is within the competence of aircraft owners.