Iran vs Azerbaijan

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On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis
Part 1: Demonstration of power


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On October 22, exercises involving the 164th Infantry Brigade of the Iranian Army began in the province of West Azerbaijan, on the border with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

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On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis

Part 5: How serious are Iran's intentions?
Rybar in English
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On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis

Part 4: What is Iran wary of? twitter.com/rybar_en/statu…

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The IRGC's practiced crossings of the Aras River right under the noses of Azerbaijani border guards, and also the opening of the Iranian consulate in Kapan, are the first really serious steps confirming Iran's intentions to firmly defend its interests.

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According to their doctrine, the IRGC itself is used for operations outside the country. The training of Iranian Army units near the borders of Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan, which is already a regular event, is a signal of the readiness to use this potential.

On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis

Part 4: What is Iran wary of?
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On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis

Part 3: How would the road cut Iran off from Armenia? twitter.com/rybar_en/statu…
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Currently, the sources of the Araks are controlled by Turkey and Armenia, while Iran and Azerbaijan are the downstream countries. Creating a path in the south of Armenia's Syunik region would make Iranian leadership dependent on another Turkic country.
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Given the possibility of drought in the region due to climate change, as well as the dams being built by Turkish authorities in northern Iraq and eastern Turkey, the water supply problem is a serious threat in the long run for Iran.

Rybar in English
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On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis

Part 3: How would the road cut Iran off from Armenia?
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On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis

Part 2: What is the goal of the exercises?
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The transport artery itself does not close the borders of Iran and Armenia in any way. However, its status is still not legally defined. Azerbaijanis want an extra-territorial status for their corridor, i.e. to legally secure control over an area of Armenian land in the south.
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Yerevan is not ready to take this step, fearing the subsequent seizure of territories and requiring customs control for entry and exit. Baku, on the other hand, intends to open the link by any means, without looking back at any consequences, under the patronage of the Turks.
Rybar in English
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·
On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis

Part 2: What is the goal of the exercises?
Rybar in English
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·
On tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan - Rybar's analysis
Part 1: Demonstration of power

Rybar in English
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The stumbling block in relations between Iran and Azerbaijan is the issue of the Zangezur corridor, currently under construction, which in theory should connect the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan with the main territory of the country, and provide a land route to Turkey.
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The catch is that the road would run along Iran's current border in Armenia's southern Syunik region. Iran fears that the new transport route could be used as a pretext to block the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Russia route in the future.

Of course the question of R. Azerbaijan , is not a new one . Nor is it an urgent threat , necessitating the invasion of their territory , by " crossing the Aras River " . Then the important question arises , as to why such an action is being taken now ? And this action should not be seen in isolation from current protest movement or other Iran military adventures in Iraqi Kurdistan and possible retaliation against ? for " attack" on shrine etc .

In my view , the first and immediate objective of these actions is to divert attention from protest movement , and the next objective could be to bring in the American or NATO forces in against Iran , and thereby affect a regime change , and export " democracy " by liberating the Iranian souls from their bodies ! Then why does The West not do another Libya , and carry out another humanitarian bombing run ?

The answer could be that this type of intervention can not be politically justified anymore . And the West needs stronger reasons to intervene , such as defending the territorial integrity of R. Azerbaijan . It would be very convenient too , to open another front against Russia , now engaged in Ukraine .

The Iran military should avoid all external actions and adventurism , that would bring in NATO against Iran to regime change and put puppet Shah in power , against democratic wishes of Iranian people in their revolution . The Iranian armed forces should protect all public gatherings and arrest especially the plain clothes hooligans shooting people on the streets . The democratic revolution of the people is the priority . The action by Iran military right now , can not be justified , and is counter - revolutionary .

@200_zoka
We are coming!!!
Quote Tweet
Clash Report
@clashreport
IRGC-linked accounts threaten Azerbaijan with Shahed-136 kamikaze UAVs.
“Our message is clear to Aliyev and his supporters: We will come one day…”

https://twitter.com/shahed_136

@Iranobserver01
Baku Foreign Ministry: Russia and Armenia are ready for war with us

@Iranobserver01
Azerbaijani army crossed the contact line with Artsakh set by the Nov 9 trilateral statement & made a positional improvement to control the mountainous civilian road bypassing Shushi.

@Iranobserver01
Iran appoints Mehdi Sobhani as the new ambassador to Armenia.
Sobhani was previously in charge in Syria, coordinating Iranian forces there.
Iran is sending a clear message to the temporary occupied Baku.

Not a good idea for Iran troops to be engaged alone against Baku . Iran does not need a sectarian civil war on it's hands right now . I think it is a problem that Russia can address much better , together with Armenia , with Iran in the background with logistic support . If you say " Russia has it's hands full with Ukraine and can not spare more troops ! " Then this is a fair comment . This problem can be addressed in two ways : First is that Iran can send troops to Ukraine , to fight in the frontlines and release Russian troops to fight in Armenia . Second is that if this move is found to be supported by Turkey , then Iran and Russia can increase pressure by support of Kurds inside Turkey , to break-up this NATO prostitute into pieces . The problem of Kurdish separatism can be addressed locally and at later date . Far easier to break-up Kurdish separatists in Syria or Iraq or Iran , than fight the Turks . The Turkish problem is far greater and immediate . Therefore best use Russian drones in R. Azer and Iranian drones against the Orcs .

— / NEW: Amid rising tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Islamic Republic has for the first time started arming Armenia

Today, an Iranian military-affiliated Boeing 747 (IR4705) took off from Tehran towards Armenia, turning off its GPS as it entered Armenian airspace. Various outlets claim the cargo consisted of drones and other weapons systems.

Iran has repeatedly clarified its position that it will not allow any change in the regional borders, especially not the creation of the so-called Zangezur corridor in Armenia's Syunik region.

@Middle_East_Spectator