Russia-India relations and economic deals

When a government is bought they often spend on the local media as well, so when you own a government and you also own the local media so that there is little analysis as to decisions made and agreements signed the general public often does not realise they have already been sold down the river... most countries rely on a  free press for such a warning and a free press is the first thing the CIA infiltrates and perverts...

When the brown stuff hits the bladed room cooling device it will of course be too late... and it will all be Russias fault... why didn't they warn us...

As mentioned in the article, Russia can't supply weapons to China or Pakistan, yet the US and France can sell to Pakistan... it is powerful rich international companies like Apple and Microsoft that set up cheap production in China that led to Chinas growth and development... (obviously it was not just that... they had to make the right choices and decisions too of course)...

I rather suspect the US has decided that India is a huge country... like China... but it has a tiny navy... so point India at China and tell them to massively boost their navy which will pour trillions of dollars into American pockets they hope and force China to focus on India instead of just the US.

The amusing thing is that the result could be India starts to focus and make better choices and becomes as big a problem for the US as China is.

This is not about culture or values or ideology... the US doesn't care about communism... it is about economy and rivals and they think they can damage two potential giant rivals by facing them off against each other because both countries with over 1 billion people each represent and economic threat to the US because they could be better in every way if they focus and don't piss away all their development money on making weapons to point over a line on a map.


The US is essentially trying to face two rivals off against each other as a distraction while they try to reset and rebuild their own broken country... and make some money while they are at it...

Interview with the Ambassador of India to Russia

The Kommersant newspaper, under the headline "A revolution is taking place in Russian-Indian relations," published an interesting interview with the outgoing Ambassador of India to the Russian Federation Bala Venkatesh Varma, concerning, among other things, Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation. Ambassador of India to the Russian Federation Bala Venkatesh Varma (c) Anatoly Zhdanov / Kommersant


Indian Ambassador to the Russian Federation Bala Venkatesh Varma , who is completing a three-year business trip to the Russian Federation, summed up the results of his work and told Kommersant correspondent Sergei Strokan about new trends in Russian-Indian relations.


“Act in the Far East”: a new growth strategy

- Mr. Ambassador, your three-year stay in Moscow has coincided with a number of significant events in Russian-Indian relations. Which ones were the most important?

- It was a period of radical changes both in bilateral relations and in our interaction in resolving international issues. The defining events were President Putin's visit to India in October 2018, which took place just a month after I became ambassador to Moscow, and Prime Minister Modi's visit to Vladivostok in September 2019. Let me remind you that then Narendra Modi was the main guest of the Eastern Economic Forum, which also hosted the annual Russian-Indian summit.

Despite the fact that in the past year and a half our interaction has been complicated by the coronavirus pandemic, we have managed to maintain high-level contacts. The personal trust between the two leaders was further strengthened. Meetings of foreign ministers, defense ministers, energy ministers and national security advisers took place. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian Minister of Defense took part in the parade on Red Square, dedicated to the 75th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War.

In August this year, President Putin attended a special UN Security Council meeting on maritime security chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And in 2019, President Putin awarded Prime Minister Modi with the highest Russian civilian award - the Order of the Holy Apostle Andrew the First-Called, which was a great honor for Narendra Modi and for India.

During my stay in Moscow, such traditional areas of Indian-Russian cooperation as defense, nuclear energy, space and the energy sector have been further strengthened. However, we have also expanded our partnerships - new directions have appeared in them. I would say that over the past three years, our particularly privileged strategic partnership has become even stronger and more diversified. The picture of interaction today is very different from what it was three or four years ago. Now it is based on a new trajectory of growth and expansion of interaction. This cannot but cause satisfaction. This would not have been possible without the support from Delhi, as well as without the powerful support that I received here in Moscow, and for which I express my gratitude and gratitude.

- Could you tell us more about the new trends, since you were one of their architects?

- Ambassadors are not architects, they are instruments of politics. The biggest change in the past three years is the way India looks at Russia.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Vladivostok in 2019 served as an impetus for the formation of a new Indian policy “Act in the Far East”, which prioritizes interregional cooperation.

For the first time, India announced the opening of a $ 1 billion concessional credit line to expand the participation of Indian businesses in the development of Russia, especially in the Far East.

We are promoting the development of the Chennai-Vladivostok sea corridor. It will complement the North-South corridor through Iran. We are also taking part in the development of the Northern Sea Route, including in the Arctic zone, on which India and Russia are holding special consultations.

That is, India's participation in various parts of the large Eurasian continent is in the interests of Russia, as well as India itself. We have discovered new areas of interaction, the impact of which will be measured not in months or years, but in decades. It is with these time categories that we must measure our strategic partnership.

In the field of defense, we have concluded a very important contract for the Russian S-400 air defense systems, the first deliveries under which this year are being carried out according to the schedule.

I cannot fail to mention the joint production of four Project 1135.6 frigates, the production in India of the world's most advanced AK-203 assault rifle with 100% localization, additional supplies of the Su-30 MKI and MiG-29, as well as additional supplies of Mango ammunition and the small air defense system. radius of action.

Russian-Indian military exercises have become larger and more diverse.

The level of relations between India and Russia in the defense industry in all areas has grown exponentially. In fact, over these three years, Russia has regained its first place in the list of defense partners. Russia interacts with India on the most advanced defense technologies, which it does not do with any other country in the world.

In the same way, we are developing major energy projects. Vostok Oil will definitely make India a part of one of the largest energy projects in the world.

India's potential investment in Arctic LNG-2 and Russia's investment in the Paradip cracking plant will open up a new area of ​​cooperation in the petrochemical industry.

The new task force on gas will attract Russia as the main partner, including in the field of hydrogen energy, which is important in the context of climate change.

We intend to increase the import of Russian oil to India, which is now only 1%. Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri, who visited Russia in September, announced that we intend to increase Russian oil imports to 3%, 4% or 5% over the next five years.

During the coronavirus pandemic, our cooperation continued. Air traffic was maintained.

One of the main areas of cooperation was the production of the Russian vaccine Sputnik V in India.

We have also entered into an agreement for the long-term supply of coking coal for the Indian steel industry. We are awaiting the signing of a similar agreement for the supply of fertilizers. We will soon take our cooperation in science and technology to a new level through the establishment of a new Joint Commission.

Cooperation in the field of training qualified personnel is also gaining momentum. MDL is cooperating with the Zvezda shipyard in the construction of new ships for the Northern Sea Route. We have also expanded our embassy, ​​which is already one of the largest Indian embassies abroad, to pursue new areas of cooperation with Russia. We have a new space office, a new energy office, and I am pleased to announce that a new tourist office will open soon in Moscow.

- The old idea of ​​Russian-Indian relations as a political colossus on clay economic feet is no longer relevant?

- Today the focus is on the development of new areas of cooperation in pharmaceuticals, ceramics, the chemical industry, high-tech industries, robotics, and Internet banking.

We are also looking at new Russian investments in India's rail sector. We are awaiting the signing of a new intergovernmental agreement in the field of shipping. And most importantly, Russia is a highly coveted partner in India's Do-in-India defense program, which is now guaranteed to pave the way for further strengthening the already existing and historically very successful relationship.

In general, I would say that a revolution is taking place in our relations at the strategic, political, economic, trade and high-tech levels, as well as in the interaction between people.

- You call it a revolution?

- Yes, this is a revolution in terms of all the ambition of goals and the use of new tools to achieve them.

We are also expanding our contacts with regions where Buddhism is widespread. Recently, a delegation of experts on Buddhism came to us, which visited Kalmykia, Buryatia and Tuva. This will further strengthen the relationship between the peoples of India and Russia. Yoga and Ayurveda are also very popular in Russia. Some of the Indian wrestlers who won medals at the Tokyo Olympics have trained in Russia. Our astronauts, who will fly into space in 2023 aboard an Indian spacecraft, received basic training in Russia - another enduring symbol of our friendship.

- What do you expect from the upcoming Russian-Indian summit, which did not take place last year?

- Russia and India have developed a well-established practice of holding annual bilateral summits, which has been going on for almost two decades.

But, unfortunately, due to the coronavirus pandemic, we were unable to hold the summit in 2020. We proceed from the assumption, and both sides are actively discussing this, that President Putin will be able to visit India by the end of this year. In addition, we also expect that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will visit India to participate in the Intergovernmental Commission on Defense Issues, presumably on its sidelines the first ministerial meeting in the "2 + 2" format (with the participation of the defense ministers and foreign ministers of the two countries will take place. - "b").

Also, a meeting of the Joint Economic Commission is to be held in India. So we have a very tight schedule of meetings in preparation for the bilateral summit. I believe that the summit between President Putin and Prime Minister Modi will be very productive and inclusive. We already have a number of important agreements ready for signing or at the final stage of approval.

“India has always worked independently and will continue to do so”

- Sometimes we do not fully understand each other. It is believed that India is leaving the United States, turning away from Russia.

- The relationship between India and Russia has a unique strength that has repeatedly shown that it follows its own logic and is immune to pressure from third countries. In addition, India is too big a country to be pulled in one direction or another.

India stands on its own feet, thinks with its own head and pursues its own interests.

Both countries believe in the principle of multipolarity. As our Foreign Minister Dr. Subramaniyam Jaishankar said in his speech at IMEMO in July this year, the principle of a multipolar world is a legitimate desire for flexibility without a desire for exclusivity.

India and Russia are pursuing similar strategies to strengthen the multipolar system. We are interested in the widest possible participation so that each pole can contribute to the general equilibrium and strategic stability of the multipolar system. Multipolarity is not just a slogan; it requires concrete action.

As for our relations with the United States, they have strengthened even more in recent years. Similar to our strategic partnership with Russia, which is special and privileged, we also have a strategic partnership with the United States. There are very powerful incentives for this relationship. But there is no internal contradiction in our relationship with the United States and in our relationship with Russia. In our view, each relationship has its own merits, and further strengthening of India's relationship with the United States, along with the strengthening of our relationship with Russia, actually increases the strength and credibility of the multipolar system.

- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the creation of the QUAD and AUKUS alliances erodes security in the Asia-Pacific region. But India is a member of QUAD, and many in Moscow are puzzled.

- Striving for multipolarity during a colossal geopolitical shake-up requires the establishment of new partnerships. India seeks an open architecture of international relations based on multipolarity not only in the world, but also in Asia, where no country can impose its will through domination or military force. For this reason, we are looking for new ways of cooperation.

India is a member of QUAD. Recently, a QUAD summit was held in Washington, which was attended by Prime Minister Modi. India agreed to cooperate in certain areas that are pressing global problems. These include the fight against the COVID pandemic, new infrastructure, new technologies, climate change and a new generation of youth cooperation. These trends show that QUAD is not an alliance or quasi-alliance. India views QUAD differently. India has always worked independently and will continue to do so. Just as we seek to establish partnerships with QUAD, we are seeking similar partnerships with the BRICS and SCO.

We also strove for partnerships, no matter how complex they may seem, within the RIC (Russia-India-China). India will use its capabilities wherever they are, in accordance with the requirements of its own security and its foreign policy interests.

And let me stress once again: in the pursuit of these opportunities, we see no contradictions with our long-standing strategic partnership with Russia.

China Changes the Status Quo

- Another pressing issue is relations with China. Moscow is increasingly saying that the United States is dragging India into an anti-Chinese game. How does this happen?

- India is too big a country for any other country to be drawn into anything, into any policy that does not meet its own interests.

At the same time, let me say that the exacerbation of the situation on the India-China demarcation line in Ladakh, which has remained very difficult since last summer, was caused by China's unilateral attempts to change the status quo and the violation of the bilateral agreement on maintaining peace and tranquility on the Indian border and China.

We would like to resolve these difficulties in our bilateral relations through dialogue. The 13th round of negotiations among the corps commanders took place quite recently, on 10 October. Not so long ago, a meeting of foreign ministers was held in Dushanbe. We want to move forward and resolve this issue in such a way as to ensure both the withdrawal of troops and the de-escalation of tensions. We are committed to resolving these differences peacefully and bilaterally through dialogue.

We expect the Chinese side to take into account the overall perspective of our bilateral relations and work to resolve outstanding issues as soon as possible in accordance with our bilateral agreements. We interact with China on a bilateral basis, as well as at various sites, including Russia-India-China. The next meeting at the level of foreign ministers is likely to be held in the format of a videoconference.

In addition, interaction with China is carried out within the UN Security Council, of which India is a member, as well as in the G20, BRICS and SCO.

- If you compare what the situation was like when you arrived in Moscow with what is happening today, has China become more persistent in changing the status quo?

- It is difficult to deny that such a perception of Chinese politics exists not only in the context of India-China relations, but also in a broader sense.

But I must point out that the Russian side has shown significant understanding of the problems facing India, and I must express my gratitude to the Russian Ministry of Defense for the regular supply of weapons to India. They continued even in the most intense months and weeks of this protracted standoff in Ladakh between the troops of India and China, which has continued since mid-2020.

Afghanistan - History of Broken Promises

- Another hot topic is Afghanistan. Initially, Delhi did not share Moscow's hopes that the Taliban (banned in Russia) would not allow international terrorists to use the territory of Afghanistan.

- India shares the concern of the world community about the current crisis situation in Afghanistan, above all about the humanitarian crisis. How we got to this crisis is, of course, a matter of analysis and introspection. The Doha process (negotiations on Afghanistan in Doha - "Kommersant"), in which India did not participate, or the "Troika Plus" process (the "expanded troika on Afghanistan" includes Russia, the United States, China and Pakistan. - "Kommersant"), in which India was not allowed to participate, pursued certain goals, which in reality turned out to be very different from what was originally intended.

This crisis was caused by the collapse of the Ghani government, as well as the rapid withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, and in particular from Kabul.

I believe that India and Russia may have taken different paths - I repeat, we did not participate in the Doha and Troika Plus processes, but we are moving in the same direction.

The situation in Afghanistan creates the same problems for us: instability, drug trafficking, the threat of terrorism, as well as the spread of instability to Central Asia. In August, President Putin discussed this with Prime Minister Modi. Shortly thereafter, Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev visited India and held extensive talks with Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. Subsequently, we held a series of meetings between India and Russia, not all of which were public.

This is because both sides recognize that the challenge posed by the current situation in Afghanistan affects India and Russia, probably more than any other group of countries. India will take part in the Moscow format meeting on October 20.

We are also cooperating at the level of our National Security Councils, and India will host a high-level meeting of the region's national security councils on Afghanistan in November.

- The Taliban leaders promised Moscow that they would destroy international terrorists on the territory of Afghanistan. Will they be able to deliver on this promise?

“Unfortunately, in the past few months we have become convinced that Afghanistan is a story of unfulfilled promises. Let's wait and see if the Taliban break their word or back it up with action.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4416496.html

India will import LNG worth an estimated $25 billion from Russia. First direct shipment of Russian LNG has just arrived in India

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-receives-first-direct-shipment-of-russian-lng-under-long-term-contract/articleshow/87287564.cms

Sujoy wrote:India will import LNG worth an estimated $25 billion from Russia. First direct shipment of Russian LNG has just arrived in India

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-receives-first-direct-shipment-of-russian-lng-under-long-term-contract/articleshow/87287564.cms

India needs a dedicated supply line of gas and oil from Russia to realize full potential of non defense trade between the two countries which is very dismal since past so many years. Moreover its high time India reduces its dependence on Arabian states so this deal with Russia is welcome

This is something in the pipeline ( ) for a while now. A connection via China and Myanmar is on the table since ... 2012?

Pinto wrote:

Sujoy wrote:India will import LNG worth an estimated $25 billion from Russia. First direct shipment of Russian LNG has just arrived in India

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-receives-first-direct-shipment-of-russian-lng-under-long-term-contract/articleshow/87287564.cms

India needs a dedicated supply line of gas and oil from Russia to realize full potential of non defense trade between the two countries which is very dismal since past so many years. Moreover its high time India reduces its dependence on Arabian states so this deal with Russia is welcome

The North-South corridor through Iran and the Caspian and the Vladivostok-Chennai maritime corridor are also key aspects of the trade relationship being worked on. Once they reach full-steam we'd have cheaper logistics that would allow a lot of products, resources to be sold back and forth profitably

As I've repeated before, Russia's foreign policy toward ungrateful, sell-out countries (especially including ex-Soviet and Eastern European states) should be strictly transactional and commercial. Give up privately on hopes for any of them cherishing fraternity, brotherhood, shared history, culture, language etc., but in public carry on trumpeting such fanciful, rhetorical "values". Sell that bullshit, make money and secure your strategic interests. The US has already provided the blueprints to this facetious playbook, selling their "values" too.

Russia would not benefit from manipulating trade partners the way the US does today, in fact the US would benefit because then they could truly say the Russians and the Chinese are no better than us so better the devil you know.

Russia and China are not trying to get into the position the US is in now, they want a unipolar world where they can make their own choices and decisions and don't have to bow down to any other country.

Russia would be a pole of power, but so would China and even the US, and the EU and other countries... Brazil, India, South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, etc etc a situation where groups of countries don't gang up to bully other countries or regions... that is how WWI started and was what created the necessary conditions for WWII to happen... and almost started WWIII several times.

GarryB wrote:

As I've repeated before, Russia's foreign policy toward ungrateful, sell-out countries (especially including ex-Soviet and Eastern European states) should be strictly transactional and commercial. Give up privately on hopes for any of them cherishing fraternity, brotherhood, shared history, culture, language etc., but in public carry on trumpeting such fanciful, rhetorical "values". Sell that bullshit, make money and secure your strategic interests. The US has already provided the blueprints to this facetious playbook, selling their "values" too.

Russia would not benefit from manipulating trade partners the way the US does today, in fact the US would benefit because then they could truly say the Russians and the Chinese are no better than us so better the devil you know.

Russia and China are not trying to get into the position the US is in now, they want a unipolar world where they can make their own choices and decisions and don't have to bow down to any other country.

Russia would be a pole of power, but so would China and even the US, and the EU and other countries... Brazil, India, South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, etc etc a situation where groups of countries don't gang up to bully other countries or regions... that is how WWI started and was what created the necessary conditions for WWII to happen... and almost started WWIII several times.

Agree, but actually WW1 started from exactly such a multi-polar world

In practice how multi-polarity went, is that the most powerful nations of the world divided the rest of the world between themselves, and once there was nothing left to take or conquer, they turned on each other big time. Each power allied with the ones it had less conflicts of interests with, and it came down to a war between two alliances.

But once you get signed agreements and alliances then you create two or more power blocks and while the theory that is supposed to create deterrence to prevent conflict, as we saw it dragged countries that had no reason to fight each other except for a piece of paper they signed to help out another country in need.



A proper multipolar world does not involve ganging up or military agreements or organisations like HATO.

Hahaha... just saw this and thought it was relevant with power blocks... WWII... Britain and India etc etc..

BTW this is eddie izzard... ignore the makeup and he is funny... he was transgender back before it was popular.... if they were all like he was then I would have less problems with them....

GarryB wrote:But once you get signed agreements and alliances then you create two or more power blocks and while the theory that is supposed to create deterrence to prevent conflict, as we saw it dragged countries that had no reason to fight each other except for a piece of paper they signed to help out another country in need.



A proper multipolar world does not involve ganging up or military agreements or organisations like HATO.

A multipolar world implies competition between those poles. That will lead to alliances, and eventually a bipolar confrontation of enemies of enemies as friends, as per usual

I'm not sure there is a solution. But slowly, humanity is evolving. No-one wants to do multipolarity like last time, and unipolarity and the West and pals now trying to gang up on China to preserve their hegemony have to go too. So what does that leave us with in the end? I'm not as optimistic as you are about the new outlook, but I think it will be better than today regardless.

Hahaha... just saw this and thought it was relevant with power blocks... WWII... Britain and India etc etc..

BTW this is eddie izzard... ignore the makeup and he is funny... he was transgender back before it was popular.... if they were all like he was then I would have less problems with them....

I don't care who does what really, and I have no issues appreciating people for their talent. It's when something is shoved down my throat by a political agenda that I tend to vomit it back out.

India to allot second site for NPP construction under Russian design

https://tass.com/economy/1371597


India’s Nayara Energy to start polypropylene production jointly with Rosneft

https://tass.com/economy/1371581


Putin, Modi consider it necessary to start talks on EAEU-India free trade agreement

https://tass.com/politics/1371555

List of 28 agreements/MoUs between India and Russia that were signed during Putin's visit

Russia, a legacy relationship with limitations

The Russian President Vladimir Putin’s short visit to New Delhi and the inaugural 2+2 meeting between India and Russia — which is India’s fourth such engagement with another country — will help improve Moscow-New Delhi ties, currently fraying under the pressure of larger global power shifts. Of all the diplomatic balancing acts India has to play in this milieu of geopolitical uncertainty, the one with Russia is the most significant. And yet, let the ongoing flurry of activity between Moscow and New Delhi not blind us to the global forces that will pose formidable challenges for the partnership.
There are constraints

Russia, no doubt, is a friend in need to India; but Moscow’s friendship comes with limitations. Not only would the realities of the global balance of power shrink the robustness of the relationship over time, but, more crucially perhaps, a legacy relationship based on limited interaction might eventually lose the warmth given that there is little organic, people-to-people content to the relationship.

To put it bluntly, unless the bilateral ties can move beyond arms sale/purchase, the phase of stasis will kick in sooner rather than later in India-Russia relations. Consider for instance, the India-Russia bilateral trade is around U.S.$10 billion, far lower than India’s trade with China and the United States, China’s trade with the U.S. and Russia, and even the U.S.’s trade with Russia. The Soviet-era cultural and people-to-people contacts have almost entirely evaporated. Arms sales alone won’t a relationship make.

Today, the India-Russia relationship stands deeply strained by the larger geopolitical realities which neither of them is completely in control of. The quadrilateral dynamics among India, China, the U.S. and Russia have different implications of varying degrees for all four states in this relationship, in particular for India.
The dynamics

Let us use the concept of primary and secondary antagonisms to understand the dynamics of this quad better. To a great extent, if not entirely, the dynamics of this six-way relationship, at the apex, is a function of the U.S.-China rivalry. In this six-way matrix, China-U.S. antagonism is the first order relationship and the U.S.-Russia, China-Russia and Russia-India are the second order relationships. While the second order relationships in this quad are, to a great extent, a product of the primary antagonism, the second tier relationships also have their own unique dynamics and implications.

For instance, India-China, a second order relationship in this quad, is both a product of the primary antagonism between the U.S. and China as well as a result of the regional geopolitical rivalry between India and China.

Even though China remains its primary antagonism, Washington has not yet succeeded in divorcing its less challenging second order antagonism (rivalry with Moscow) from it. Washington’s parallel rivalries with China and Russia (albeit to a lesser extent) have complicated matters for New Delhi.

What appears to be a near certainty in the medium to longer term is that the dynamics of the quadrilateral relationship, in particular India’s tense relations with China, will go on to complicate India’s time-tested partnership with Russia, a process that has already started.

Even though Beijing has not aggressively attempted to damage India-Russia relations, there is little doubt that China will attempt to drive a wedge between New Delhi and Moscow since isolating India in the larger Asian region suits Beijing’s larger game plan.
A few scenarios

It gets more complicated if we were to examine the various potential scenarios in this quadrilateral relationship. For instance, the extent of Chinese aggression towards India will play a role in determining India’s relationship with Russia. Consider this. An aggressive China will push India towards the U.S., and even though Russia would be understanding towards India’s rationale behind such a pro-U.S. tilt in the medium term, India’s relationship with the U.S. will invariably create hurdles in India-Russia relations in the longer term. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s warning to India should be read in that context: “We expressed our serious concern to our Indian friends over the U.S. activity there (Asia-Pacific region) under the slogan of so-called Indo-Pacific strategies and the creation of closed bloc-type structures”.

Put differently, the more aggressive Beijing gets towards New Delhi, the more India would grow closer to Washington and Moscow. However, while Moscow would appreciate a close partnership with New Delhi, it may not be when it comes to a growing India-U.S. partnership. More so, if Moscow has to choose between Beijing and New Delhi, it would choose Beijing just as New Delhi would choose Washington over Moscow if it comes to that.

This also implies that an aggressive China may also help increase India-Russia relations in the short to medium term, something we may already be witnessing. Recall Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Moscow in June 2020 soon after the stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops on the Line of Actual Control to procure more weapons systems, among other things.

In the meantime, the seemingly unresolvable first order antagonism (the U.S. versus China) also provides space for geopolitical hedges in the second order partnerships/antagonisms, i.e., India-Russia and even Russia-U.S. For instance, Russia’s dormant concerns about China’s rising influence in its traditional periphery, and Moscow’s relations with India in the broader context of Central and West Asia and the western Indian Ocean could prompt Moscow to maintain a certain degree of, albeit limited, geopolitical hedge vis-à-vis Beijing. India’s desire for a robust relationship with Russia will be more appreciated by the U.S. due to the Chinese aggression against India and the U.S.’s systemic and first order rivalry with Beijing. More so, once the reality of the rise of China becomes a concern for Moscow, it could potentially open conversations with Washington to create a balance vis-à-vis Beijing which suits Indian interests.

At the same time, however, if there is a rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia or a reduction in the war of words between the U.S. and China, this may or may not have a direct and substantive impact on Sino-Indian relations since the strains in Sino-Indian relations are not just a product of global balance of power but, more fundamentally, a result of India-China dynamics in the Southern Asian region. Put differently, no matter what the state of global geopolitics is, the essential (adversarial) nature of India-China relations is unlikely to undergo a fundamental transformation. For New Delhi, the principal antagonism is China. Therefore, New Delhi must exploit strategies and partnerships that can help address the China challenge more effectively. This means that India has to carefully balance its growing partnership with the U.S. with its somewhat delicate relationship with Russia.
Potential for cooperation

Let us return to the India-Russia ties and examine the potential for cooperation between the two sides. In a sense, the U.S. withdrawal from Kabul and India’s relationship with Moscow have helped New Delhi to adopt more flexible strategies vis-à-vis Afghanistan as well as the broader region. Given the close relationship that New Delhi enjoyed with Washington, American presence in Kabul had, in a way, limited India’s options as New Delhi was broadly encouraged to follow U.S. policy in the region. With the Americans gone, India can openly cooperate with Moscow and even Tehran, especially if the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) renegotiations succeed, and engage Afghanistan and the Central Asian region with their help.

If New Delhi plays its cards well, it can use Moscow to gain more geopolitical heft in the region — while the U.S. provided New Delhi status quo in the region, Moscow could provide India with more direct opportunities. Of course, New Delhi would need to be prepared for adverse reactions from Beijing and Islamabad.

Yet another area of cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi is the Indian Ocean Region, especially the western Indian Ocean where Russia has been expanding its influence and India has significant interests.

For New Delhi, located in an unstable and virtually friendless neighbourhood, friendship with Russia is important notwithstanding the structural limits to such a friendship. It will, therefore, take a great deal of diplomatic agility from New Delhi to stay the course and improve the relationship with Moscow amidst high-stakes geopolitical contestations.

Happymon Jacob teaches at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and is the founder of the Council for Strategic and Defense Research

Sujoy wrote:
Happymon Jacob teaches at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and is the founder of the Council for Strategic and Defense Research

In a multi-polar world, why should either Moscow or New Delhi have to 'choose' when it comes down to it?
They are both major powers in their own right and can decide on their own positions, or to not take a position at all.

Russia is not going to choose between China and India, it has nothing to obligate it to.
Same with India choosing between Russia and America.

Even in the Cold War, neither India nor China were part of the Western or Eastern blocs. Hell even Yugoslavia and Albania decided not to join either.

And if Russia and India desire to hedge bets against China, then they can just co-operate with each other to the extent they wish, without needing to involve America in this bilateral relationship.

This really is just more pro-Atlantic agitation dressed up as a reasoned article

flamming_python wrote: In a multi-polar world, why should either Moscow or New Delhi have to 'choose' when it comes down to it?
They are both major powers in their own right and can decide on their own positions, or to not take a position at all.

Because they are not great, they are too small to hold their own against the U.S and China. India's economy should roughly have been the size of that of China but India refuses to develop.

Russia by now should have had an economy that's roughly $7-$8 trillion but for reasons unknown to me, it's not.

So until such time that Russia & India drastically increases the size of their economy they will have to play second fiddle to U.S and China.

flamming_python wrote:And if Russia and India desire to hedge bets against China, then they can just co-operate with each other to the extent they wish, without needing to involve America in this bilateral relationship.

Dmitri Trenin from Carnegie Moscow recently analyzed the current state of Russia-India relations. He too suggests that Russian politicians remains Euro centric and people to people relation between Russia & India is missing.

https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85903

Sujoy wrote:

flamming_python wrote: In a multi-polar world, why should either Moscow or New Delhi have to 'choose' when it comes down to it?
They are both major powers in their own right and can decide on their own positions, or to not take a position at all.

Because they are not great, they are too small to hold their own against the U.S and China. India's economy should roughly have been the size of that of China but India refuses to develop.

Russia by now should have had an economy that's roughly $7-$8 trillion but for reasons unknown to me, it's not.

So until such time that Russia & India drastically increases the size of their economy they will have to play second fiddle to U.S and China.

Well that's a bit of a lack of self-confidence there Sujoy

What if China had that attitude back in the 70s?
It didn't, it stayed in its own lane and worked on itself. So did India

And it's not my place to say what India should do, but as for Russia, I see no reason why Russia should tow itself to anyone. We enjoy great relations with China, and a huge volume of trade. However there are many more countries in the world, and Russia is certainly not about to let China say who it can and can't be friends with. What was the point of distancing itself from the US in the first place in that case?

So, Russia will be friends with China, and it will be friends with India, if India wishes. It will be friends with African states, Middle Eastern states, and Europe as well in the future, if they get off their high-horse. The volume of Russian-EU trade is still greater than the volume of trade Russia has with China.

Russia also plays second-fiddle to no-one for the time being. All the relations it has cultivated with countries around the world, it did itself, and maintains, expands by itself.

flamming_python wrote: Dmitri Trenin from Carnegie Moscow recently analyzed the current state of Russia-India relations. He too suggests that Russian politicians remains Euro centric and people to people relation between Russia & India is missing.

https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85903

And I would entirely agree with that. That's something to work on. This talk of US, China is of no bearing to anything between Russia and India and their ties, or lack of them.

Going forward, Russia needs a strong India as it wants a counter-balance to China as well, or rather a triumvirate in Asia consisting of itself, China and India, per the Primakov doctrine.

There is no benefit to Russia of getting on whatever China's agenda for India may or may not be.

India unfortunately, is reading Russia entirely wrong, either by articles like that, or by news reports like this:



"Waning regional power"

Not even Obama described Russia quite like that

Like it's about to collapse any day to pressure from the West, is desperately reaching to India to get a foot up in the negotiations with Biden, or is now effectively China's bitch

In reality this is a fantasy scenario. Shoring up ties with China helps Russia in its goal to build a multi-polar world. It was cultivating stronger ties with China and more trade even well before the Crimea crisis in 2014 and fall-out with the West.
Building ties with India serves the same goal. The strategically timed visit to India was not about the negotiations with Biden, who cares about those, they were of no substance. Rather it was to discuss India's plans to take part in Biden's democracy summit that's happening over the next couple of days, that aims to split the world into blocs.

From actual experience - India can't get itself right. Let alone Russia. Indians been saying "super power by 2010" then moved the goal post after realizing it is far from a super power.

Indians, like most people, lack basic concept of economics or what actually makes a power. Sujoy is an example of this. That video you posted flaming, is another example. Explain to most what purchasing power parity is and their heads will explode. Indians have it worst due to their education is purely math and science but no actual concept of applying this beyond the basics. So they are very smart people, but lack a drive and direction so they seem rather robotic (lack of a better term).

It isn't money, it's influence and what you can do with what you got. China has all this money but still plays second fiddle to Russia in terms of real power. India lacks on both fronts though - lack of ability to show off like China, and lacks the ability to press beyond their own borders. Heck, they have trouble trying to keep it together within the borders. It's rather a miracle India is still a state in its current form honestly.

Another thing Indians have which is a huge detriment to their prospects is their inability to look beyond patriotism. There are so many die hards in India that criticism is a no no. And thus they won't learn. They think everyone wants them but obviously in the world, no one does. They think they can't do no wrong, but they can't see beyond two feet and let issues like Kashmir go on for longer than it should. Or all the issues like love jihad in India, forced conversions, destruction of neighborhoods by Muslim gangs and police do nothing. People lit on fire by same gangs and no one arrested. Protests in a province about India trying to get rid of corruption in the food trade business and Punjabi morons protest against it. Government caves.

I talked with a few professors while I was in Delhi. One thing I noticed from them is they both felt that India may cease to exist in its current form in a decade or two. Simply because the division is way too big, and people are too worried about things that don't matter- their religious views and foreign prospects. Every third sign in India everywhere is "apply here to get jobs in Canada, US, Australia and UK". It's rather evident that most don't want to stay in India so they seek outside the country to thrive.

China fixed itself. It fixed its opioid issue, they fixed their economic issue, fixed its internal political issue and managed to solidify itself and develop beyond most others. There are issues, always will be. But they didn't concentrate outside, they didn't concentrate on overtaking anyone at first. No, they concentrated on themselves and their development. They worked with anyone willing to work with them. And it shows for itself.

Flaming is right - Russia will do and work with anyone who is willing to work with them. They don't take crap from anyone and will continue to do trade and development. Iran is rather a similar case to a degree.

In a multi-polar world, why should either Moscow or New Delhi have to 'choose' when it comes down to it?
They are both major powers in their own right and can decide on their own positions, or to not take a position at all.

Russia is not going to choose between China and India, it has nothing to obligate it to.
Same with India choosing between Russia and America.

This is American bullshit.... China and India and Russia don't need to be best buddies to trade and they don't need exclusive relationships to cooperate on many levels.

It is America and the EU that will only trade and cooperate if you cut ties with this or that country, and if you agree to do so that list of countries you can't trade with will only increase till you can only trade with them.

They are not trading with you to help you out... they are trading because they need what you have or want to sell their shit to you... they are not doing you any favours they are only interested in their own interests.

Don't let them sucker you into cutting ties with anyone or going to war with anyone.

Because they are not great, they are too small to hold their own against the U.S and China.

Who said India are not great? The measure of a country is not its economy. By that metric Russia is weak and pathetic, yet it is balancing its spending, has paid off its debts to manageable levels, and is building a substantial reserve at a time of a global pandemic and open hostility from the rich and powerful west... it has reformed its military... before 2005 even the Russian people had a low opinion of their military, but they have turned that around completely and not through fake news and propaganda with movies showing them winning wars, but through a complete overhaul and upgrade of their training and equipment and weapons and the introduction of upgraded to the max ex Soviet equipment and also designed from scratch state of the art upgraded equipment and weapons that are second to none in the world... not just developed, but put into production and in the process of putting into service across the board.

Russia didn't do all this because of Western support and investment, in fact they did it in the face of hostile western sanctions designed to damage Russia and bring her in to line so international companies and foreign countries could buy up all their assets and resources and use them up like they have in the Ukraine.

I can appreciate India thinking the US can save them and invest and build them up and help them... but the only times the US did that was with West Germany and Japan after WWII and it was with the express purpose of facing off against the Soviet Union and Communist China... West Germany became a hub of production and so did Japan but they were also subservient vessels controlled completely by the US... unable to break free even today...

Russia by now should have had an economy that's roughly $7-$8 trillion but for reasons unknown to me, it's not.

Because the west has closed shop and the old boys club wont let Russia in because it didn't go to the correct school and does not wear a school tie they recognise.

So until such time that Russia & India drastically increases the size of their economy they will have to play second fiddle to U.S and China.

Bullshit... China would never dream of telling Russia what they can or cannot do, just like Russia would not tell China or India what they can or cannot do.

The US tells everyone what they should do and of course Russia and China ignore them for the yapping dogs they are... India is listening because it is hoping to get some perks from western companies pulling out of China.

Trump wanted those companies to go back to the US but unless he forces them they will go to Bangledesh or even Afghanistan if there is not conflict there...

Anything of value you might get from the US you will lose because you have to buy their military stuff which is enormously over priced and often unable to do the job without all the other stuff that goes with it... some of which you might not be allowed.

Dmitri Trenin from Carnegie Moscow recently analyzed the current state of Russia-India relations. He too suggests that Russian politicians remains Euro centric and people to people relation between Russia & India is missing.

I could have told you that... Russia looks to Europe as a model to follow, when it reality it is not... Russia and India and China all need to find their own ways forward and not look to the west because the west is screwed. They don't need to find a way together, each could choose a slightly different path, but they need to be still able to work with each other where it makes sense and not actively sabotage each other like spoilt children (the west).

The success of China or Russia or India does not damage the other two countries and rather than trying to hold each other back you should be working to help other countries develop and improve with you.

However there are many more countries in the world, and Russia is certainly not about to let China say who it can and can't be friends with.

And the point is that China does not tell Russia who it can or can't be friends with and Russia does not talk to China in that way either.

There is a huge world out there of countries that are stuck in limbo because their international trade has mainly been with the west... making the west rich and powerful but not earning very much or developing for themselves. A growing China and growing Russia and a growing India offers alternatives to the west where they can grow and develop without restrictions and demands for laws that limit their growth and hand over ownership of their resources to the west to exploit.

Africa has noticed that China and Russia don't demand exclusive mineral rights and despite all the shit talk from the west about China locking Africa into debt spirals they can never pay back.... that is what the west did and the Chinese are not doing.... the Chinese are building good roads and schools and hospitals because they want the locals to see the benefit of working with them and also help local workers gain more skills to make them more useful in factories and give them a better future.

So, Russia will be friends with China, and it will be friends with India, if India wishes. It will be friends with African states, Middle Eastern states, and Europe as well in the future, if they get off their high-horse. The volume of Russian-EU trade is still greater than the volume of trade Russia has with China.

And the EU is going to have to make the decision going down the track as to whether to stay Americas bitch and do as they are told by Washington, or whether they want to make their own choices and decisions... the silk roads are to improve trade between money centres... Asia and the EU... India can be a part of that which puts them on the trade route between both places so sending stuff to any country along that route becomes cheaper and easier and faster, which improves trade for everyone, or they can side with the US and make the Silk roads go around India and you don't make a rupee... look at Ukraine... has the US and EU showered them in money to compensate them for all the helicopter engines they are not selling to Russia or tank engines or Ship engines or rocket parts or transport planes? Did the US give France lots of money to compensate them over the Mistral deal. Has the US bought all that EU food rotting because of Russian sanctions against the EU for EU sanctions against Russia?

The US demands but does not pay out compensation.... keep that in mind...

Going forward, Russia needs a strong India as it wants a counter-balance to China as well, or rather a triumvirate in Asia consisting of itself, China and India, per the Primakov doctrine.

There is no benefit to Russia of getting on whatever China's agenda for India may or may not be.

Russia does not want a weak India or a weak China, it benefits Russia for China to be strong and it benefits Russia for India to be strong.... in addition of course it benefits China for China to be strong and it benefits India for India to be strong.

The US wants India as a battering ram to break China... they might build you up a little but essentially they are not going to waste a lot or resources making you too strong because you are only going to be cannon fodder to weaken China who is their main foe right now.

It is just the luck of the draw if India had copied exactly what Russia did and had their own Putin and it was India that was strong it would be China that the US is sucking up to to get them to challenge the dangerous India who is trying to build trade routes to Asia and Europe to improve ties.... because those trade routes don't help US trade with either region and step up competition and make American goods more expensive and slower to arrive in comparison...

From actual experience - India can't get itself right. Let alone Russia. Indians been saying "super power by 2010" then moved the goal post after realizing it is far from a super power.

The mid 1990s everyone thought Russia can't get itself right... everyone expected it to be like the Ukraine is now... anything of value stripped out and sold and the money disappearing.... and with good reason because that really did happen... I remember talking to American teenagers in the late 1990s who said by 2010 the Russian AF would be flying second hand F-16s sold to them by HATO because HATO would be flying JSF aircraft of whichever design won the competition because MiG and Sukhoi will be gone... no longer exist.

There was even a fear that Japan might restore its former glory of fighter aircraft by buying up equipment and expertise from Russia with their business smarts and money and their organisational skills and become an aerospace super power again like they were when they were building Zeros.

Even at the time I knew that Russia was too big to fail and that the west had worked so hard to keep them down because they feared how far their could rise up without a war or some despot in charge.

India has every potential of becoming stronger... super power is a meaningless term... the Taliban didn't care about Americas super power status... and super power status does not seem to allow them to win all the medals at the olympic games either, nor to dictate terms in any situation that involves other countries.. I suspect it is overrated because it has no practical value at all....

You are missing the point Gary.

Russia and Russians always knew who they are and what they are for most part. A few bad leaders (Gorby and Yeltsin) were only a hurdle in the grand scheme of thing.

Indians problem goes back even prior to 1947 with partition. Issue stems when the Mugals invaded and forced Islam and other foreign structures on India, is when things changed. Bharat, the former empire dissolved. Hindustan was only a shadow of that, and so is its people. For most part, it's culture and now religion is all but wiped out. Instead, in its place, you got this state consisting of competing and rather non compatible ideas everywhere, with one side being zealots and other side being docile. You got a huge portion of the government being against the state and in favor whatever the British left behind and wanting to be more British than the British (like how Rhodesians felt). Recent military leader in India died in helicopter crash. Many Sikhs (Khalistani's) military men are praising his death. He went against the intelligence agency and their rather piss poor performance and lack of governance and he died.

Russia is ruled by Russians. India isn't ruled by Indians. Perfect example of this is the "Ghandi Family" which aren't Ghandis. And anyway, Ghandi was a traitor to the state being posed as some great man. There is a reason why a Hindu blew him up. That guy had more balls than any Hindu now. Head honcho of the Congress party is Italian, not Indian (Rahuls mom).

India can become a great state. But not with the issues of today. And due to lack of willpower to change anything and government looking more towards trying to "join clubs" (superpower and other nonsense) and counter China than fixing the issues at home, it will only make things worst.

We see USA collapsing with division and hatred among each other. India has it far worst and far more violent.

flamming_python wrote: Well that's a bit of a lack of self-confidence there Sujoy

I’m just comparing historical data. Unfortunately, India is barely making any economic progress. We were making very little progress before the BJP came to power, and now ever since BJP came into power, growth has nosedived.  Tremendous inequality: India has more billionaires than any country with the exception of China and U.S and yet 25% of the population live below the poverty line and the middle class barely makes ends meet. The hydra of unemployment looms large for demographic bulge of young workforce across India.

flamming_python wrote: Russia is certainly not about to let China say who it can and can't be friends with

Russia has leverage over China. Almost all the raw materials that China need to keep its factory open comes from Russia. Russia is also a major exporter of hi-tech stuff to China.

flamming_python wrote: Going forward, Russia needs a strong India as it wants a counter-balance to China as well

For that India has to achieve a high rate of growth and sustain it for at least 20 years. Something that China achieved throughout the 80s and 90s. I do not see signs of any such progress in India.
And Russia realizes this, that India is hardly making any meaningful economic progress. Which is why the Kremlin is concerned that India might drift towards the West.  That being said, even with limited bargaining power India has not come under U.S influence and destroyed its relations with Russia. Despite threats of sanctions, despite U.S decision to shut down U.S manufacturing units like Ford and Harley Davidson in India, Despite bringing India down to its knees by spreading COVID-19, India refused to budge.
The decision to go ahead with S-400 and similar multi billion $ defence deals and the massive investment being made in Russia’s Oil & Gas sector by India stands testimony to India’s defiance.
China’s invasion of India last year might well force India to gravitate more towards the U.S. The U.S has a massive economy so there is always something that India can export. With an economy roughly the size of India, Russia cannot provide an alternative to the U.S.

flamming_python wrote: India unfortunately, is reading Russia entirely wrong, either by articles like that, or by news reports like this

Not India, rather the paid media. Also, just 5% of Indians consume news in English. They regularly publish, broadcast pro US, pro China stuff. Because they are paid to do so by China and U.S.
However, as can be seen no matter how anti Chinese the rhetoric may be, business between India & China continues unhindered.

flamming_python wrote: Building ties with India serves the same goal. The strategically timed visit to India was not about the negotiations with Biden

Putin visited Delhi for just 5 hours. And frankly that is bad optics. Could have spent at least a day. Creating the impression of being a travelling salesman doesn’t help. Western leaders spend at least 2 days.

Modi is a creation of the CIA (check this thread) and yet he has been at the beck and call of Putin. Putin called him to St Pete, he went. Putin called him to Sochi at short notice he went. Visited Vladivostok because Putin wanted him to. Visits Moscow twice a year every year.

https://twitter.com/Aban__Ind/status/1283404931681128449?s=20

GarryB wrote: Because the west has closed shop and the old boys club won’t let Russia in because it didn't go to the correct school and does not wear a school tie they recognise.

Exactly the reason why India needs to maintain good terms with the U.S and E.U. Especially when exports from India to the West can easily be substituted by similar exports from other countries. Russian exports are mostly natural resources, they cannot be substituted.

miketheterrible wrote:I talked with a few professors while I was in Delhi. One thing I noticed from them is they both felt that India may cease to exist in its current form in a decade or two.  Simply because the division is way too big, and people are too worried about things that don't matter- their religious views and foreign prospects.  

This is good. I too would hope that India breaks up into a number of smaller nations. Too much diversity and it's not doing them or Russia any good. Plus they have become a US pawn now. But if India breaks up then Russia can create a number of countries that are pro Russia.

miketheterrible wrote:Every third sign in India everywhere is "apply here to get jobs in Canada, US, Australia and UK".  It's rather evident that most don't want to stay in India so they seek outside the country to thrive

Much like Muslims and Africans they also enter these Western countries illegally. They were entering Russia illegally as well but now Putin has clamped down on them. Those Indians who enter Russia are now subjected to 2-3 hrs of extensive interrogation at airports/entry points and several are sent back.

Most Western countries don't like them either. Look at the passport ranking of countries. Despite their envy of Russia and even describing Russia as an adversary far more western countries allow Russians instead of Indians. Russia is at 30, India way below at 70

https://www.passportindex.org/byRank.php