Russian relations with Armenia.

We need to forget about Armenia for a while, by Andrey Perla, political scientist, for VZGLYAD. 09.20.2024.

The latest statements by the Armenian Prime Minister pose a simple and important question: what should Russia do with Armenia? Or perhaps the question is even simpler: should anything be done with it at all, or should the Armenians sort things out for themselves?

This summer in Armenia, your humble servant, as is the habit of a political scientist, talked about politics with many people - businessmen, scientists, guides and just passers-by. In Yerevan and in Jermuk, in Sevan and in Totev. There were almost no supporters of Pashinyan among my interlocutors. But there were also no active opponents ready to go out to protests and demand a change in the government and the course the country is taking. But in various strata of Armenian society, there were many people who said something like this: “We are all waiting for Putin to remember Armenia. He will find some Armenian in Moscow and send him to our government.” One of these people spoke more decisively: “I don’t even want to think about what will happen if Russia turns away from Armenia. I just don’t want to imagine it. Because it will be a dystopia. If we have something to hope for, it is only in Russia.”

Reading the latest news from Armenia, you understand that its ruler, Nikol Vovaevich Pashinyan, is also constantly waiting for Russia to remember Armenia – only, unlike the citizens of his country, he is very afraid of this. While Russia is busy with more important matters on the western border, Pashinyan is in a hurry to sever as many ties with our country as possible. And replace them with ties with the West.

If we look at what is happening from this point of view, we have to admit: Pashinyan, who said : “We have frozen our membership in the CSTO not only because the CSTO does not fulfill its obligations to ensure Armenia’s security, but also because the CSTO creates threats to Armenia’s security, its continued existence, sovereignty and statehood” – did not surprise anyone at all. The statement is absolutely in line with his already habitual policy. So what is interesting is not what he says, and not how the Armenians will react to these speeches – we already know that there will be no truly mass protest. It is interesting what Russia will do with Armenia now.

There seem to be only two options for reasonable behaviour.

The first is to ignore what Pashinyan says and act as if everything is fine, Armenia remains in the sphere of Russian influence. Continue cooperation both within the CSTO (words are words, but no one has cancelled obligations under international treaties) and within the EAEU (especially economic obligations have not been cancelled, and no one has even made statements on this matter). This may work, because Pashinyan’s words and Armenia’s real foreign policy may be indirectly related to each other. In any case, the appearance of a French, American and NATO military base in Armenia in the current conditions is even more difficult to imagine than the voluntary withdrawal of the Russians from their military base.

The second option is to respect the words of the prime minister elected by the majority, shrug and leave Armenia to its fate. You don’t want a close union, you expect the West to protect you from Turkey? Please, do as you please. Such a position, if taken as a basis, will have a very sober calculation: in a few years, Armenia will naturally (if it survives) reach out to Russia again. Despite all the efforts of the West. Just like it already happened with Georgia. We did absolutely nothing, and then, lo and behold, a law on foreign agents, restoration of air traffic with Moscow and the fight against the LGBT rampage. And no European choice. Because it is more profitable with Russia, no matter how you look at it.

True, Pashinyan is not only making statements now. He is simulating a “fight against Russian influence.” On September 18, the Armenian authorities reported the detention of a group of people for “an attempt to usurp power through an armed coup.” These people were allegedly trained in Russia. The provocation is obvious – but is it worth giving in to this provocation?

Let's go back to the beginning. There are indeed many people in Armenia who would like Russia to save their country and them. To provide them with a good life by preserving and increasing economic ties. The motives of these people are quite understandable and rational - Armenia has nowhere to export its famous cognac except Russia, and nowhere to get a flow of tourists except from Russia. And there is no serious force in sight that would protect Armenia from its enemies except the Russians.

Among these people, there are those who are simply waiting for help, and those who directly blame Russia for the fact that this long-awaited help has not yet arrived. There are also those who are sure that it is Russia that is to blame for the fact that as a result of the last war, Armenia lost Nagorno-Karabakh – they are sure despite the fact that Armenia did not ask for help at any official level, and it was the Russians who acted as peacekeepers.

In Armenia, and even more so among Armenians, there are many who would like the Russians to feel guilty, and on this basis would selflessly help Armenia, contrary to their own interests.

But no matter how much we like Armenia, the situation is not conducive to rushing headlong to help. We have no extra resources – neither economic, nor military, nor political. On the other hand, there is no reason to spoil relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Turkey, by the way, is currently moving further and further away from NATO and the EU and is moving closer to BRICS and Russia. The Armenian leadership, in turn, is trying to go in the opposite direction – so is it worth interfering? It is logical in this situation to leave Armenia to its own fate. At least for a while. After the victorious completion of the NWO, it will be possible to look in that direction again. But for now, let them do it themselves.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/9/20/1288080.html

If the Armenian people wont fight against their own leader to keep good relations with Russia then Russia has no basis to fight to keep them as friends and allys.

In many ways Azerbaijan and Turkey are more reliable partners and are easier to deal with.

If Kaliningrad was not Russian territory and just had some ethnic group with traditional good ties with Russia and they were doing what Armenia is doing I don't think Russia would fight to keep them... there were even offers to return the cut off territory in the 1990s I seem to remember... an offer that was rejected at the time...

If Russia shared a border with Armenia things might be different, but they are problematic.

To be clear if Armenia wanted to remain good friends with Russia then ties would be kept... much like ties with Moldovans in Nagorno Karabakh (spelling) where the Ukrainians delighted in making Russian access to that region difficult... the permission to use long range HATO weapons given by the west might solve that issue by making this more than just rescuing the regions that voted to become Russian...

A 500km buffer zone into Ukrainian territory would cut Kiev off from the Black Sea completely... and if the people in that buffer zone want to join the RF then the buffer zone keeps extending to the border with HATO and Moldova.

Putin stated the importance of developing relations with Armenia, 09.21.2024.

The development of relations between Moscow and Yerevan serves the interests of the peoples of the two countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a congratulatory message to Nikol Pashinyan on the occasion of Armenia's Independence Day. The text of the letter was published by the press service of the head of the Armenian government.

“The further development of <...> friendly, allied relations and constructive interaction within the framework of common integration associations undoubtedly meets the fundamental interests of our peoples,” the text of the congratulations says.

Putin wished Pashinyan health and success, and the citizens of Armenia happiness and prosperity.

The head of the Russian government, Mikhail Mishustin, also congratulated the Armenian Prime Minister on the holiday. He also expressed confidence that bilateral cooperation between Moscow and Yerevan “corresponds to the long-term interests” of the two countries.

Earlier, Minsk declared its desire to maintain good relations with Yerevan . “Don’t lose this friendship, this brotherhood,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko addressed the Armenian authorities, noting that the countries have a “single market in the economy.”

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/66eec41a9a794753e11835c0

Aliyev Accuses West of Turning Armenia Against Azerbaijan, by Denis Telmanov for VZGLYAD. 09.23.2024.

Aliyev spoke about attempts by Western countries to set Armenia against Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused Western countries of trying to use Armenia as a tool to put pressure on Azerbaijan, stating this at a session of the republic’s parliament.

Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev has made accusations against Western countries, saying that they are trying to set Armenia against Azerbaijan, AzerTAc reports . He stressed that such plans are obvious and that the West is not interested in the Armenian people, using them as a tool to put pressure on Azerbaijan.

Aliyev noted that Western countries are trying to create threats to Azerbaijan and its neighbors through Armenian territory. The President believes that the West's goal is to ensure its own interests through instability in the region.

Aliyev made these statements at the first meeting of the Milli Majlis of the seventh convocation, emphasizing that the West’s support for Armenia is aimed solely at keeping Azerbaijan under constant pressure.

As Vzglyad newspaper wrote, Armenia requested nuclear technologies from the United States and was interested in the possibility of participating in the "123 Agreement", the Washington Post reported . Earlier, it was reported that the United States welcomed the expansion of cooperation with Armenia. At the same time, the United States is studying Yerevan's application to join the "123 Agreement" for access to civilian nuclear technologies.

https://vz.ru/news/2024/9/23/1288730.html

Armenia cannot be ignored, by Nikita Kovalenko, political observer, for VZGLYAD. 09.27.2024.

There is no option for great powers to ignore the problem or wait for it to resolve itself. Especially when it comes to neighbouring countries. To paraphrase an old joke: if we don’t build relationships with our neighbouring countries, NATO soldiers will. It’s already been proven.

Colleague Andrey Perla notes in a column about relations between Russia and Armenia that Nikol Pashinyan's behaviour leaves Moscow with two options: "ignore what Pashinyan says and act as if everything is normal," or "treat with respect the words of the majority-elected prime minister, shrug, and leave Armenia to its fate." The author himself is inclined to temporarily forget about Armenia.

These theses seem attractive in their simplicity – after all, many have long been tired of problems with some neighbours. But we have already seen something similar in Georgia and Ukraine. Starting from the 90s and ending with the “Minsk agreements,” the entire policy towards Tbilisi and Kyiv fluctuated between “forget” and “pretend that everything is fine.” The problems did not resolve themselves.

There is no option for great powers to ignore the problem or wait for it to resolve itself. Especially when it comes to neighbouring countries (though it is worth remembering about distant ones too). To paraphrase an old joke - if we do not build relations with our neighbouring countries, then NATO soldiers will do it. We have already checked.

This does not mean that we need to launch vigorous activity on the Armenian track - rather, the opposite: we need to painstakingly increase the positive perception of Russia in the eyes of the local population, since the current problems in the dialogue with Yerevan are the result of many years of work by Russia's opponents to discredit it within its neighbouring countries.

There are many people in Armenia in different circles (from ordinary workers to businessmen and politicians) who have a positive attitude towards Russia and count on it. And these people cannot be abandoned, they need to be supported in every possible way. For this, Moscow has a wide range of forces and means - special services, diplomats, journalists, businessmen, cultural figures, various economic and political instruments.

A colleague in his column refers to the fact that citizens in Armenia who sympathize with Russia are not very active. Incidentally, the lack of activity and organization of pro-Russian forces was also a problem during the Euromaidan. But this problem is solved by close interaction with them of representatives of the Russian Federation and their involvement in long-term joint projects. Here it is worth learning a lot from the Americans, who build relationships with different groups of the population in the country of interest to them, creating strong positions for their influence.

No less important is work for the future. Connections should be built not only with current activists, politicians and businessmen, but also with young people - students, promising young specialists, activists and other citizens. In particular, it is necessary to help their further growth and development. And since the negativity towards Russia in the near abroad has been nurtured for several decades, the reverse process should also be built strategically.

The current leadership, no matter how unpleasant it may be for Moscow, should not be ignored either. And here a very subtle, balanced approach is needed: moderately react to unfriendly attacks and cooperate where it corresponds to Russia's national interests. China recently demonstrated an interesting example in its relations with Argentina. President Javier Miley actively criticized China during his election campaign, to which it responded with notes of protest. However, later Buenos Aires required an extension of the payment period and an increase in the amount of the currency swap provided by Beijing. The Chinese did not refuse to extend the period, but they did not increase the amount. At the same time, Miley had to significantly calm down his rhetoric, write a letter to Xi Jinping and hold months-long negotiations. That is, China continued to build a dialogue with the authorities that exist, but on its own terms and based on its own interests.

Another important point is the presence of a relatively large Russian diaspora in Armenia. This is a traditionally difficult but very necessary area of ​​work. The diaspora, even including relocates, is not equal to Moscow's opponents; on the contrary, if you carefully build interaction with it, it can bring colossal benefits (and if you ignore it, it can cause harm) both in terms of improving the image of Russia and Russians in the eyes of the local population, and in providing various assistance to Russian representatives.

Look at how Israel works in this regard – there, interaction with its citizens living in other countries is carried out on a permanent basis. Thanks to this approach, after the conflict in Gaza began, Jewish diasporas, regardless of the political views of their representatives, had a colossal impact on the perception and coverage of this conflict in the host countries.

By the way, Russian emigrants around the world also demonstrated a significant level of consolidation after the arrest of Pavel Durov in Paris. The situation with the presidential elections was no less striking, when both supporters and opponents of the government came to vote – there were huge queues at Russian embassies around the world.

And this is far from the entire toolkit for working with the political climate in Armenia. The main thing is to get rid of the thinking of the coronavirus era: now we will self-isolate - and all the problems will be solved. All countries of the world are closely interconnected, it will not work to lock yourself in your house, and for Russia to isolate itself from its many neighbours is a complete mistake.

Therefore, we should prepare ourselves for long-term work to promote our opinions and interests. Yes, this requires many years and great efforts, but Russophobia in the near abroad did not arise in one day.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/9/27/1288836.html

Mishustin to visit Yerevan on working visit, 09.29.2024.

Mishustin to visit Yerevan and take part in Eurasian Intergovernmental Council meeting.

MOSCOW, September 29 - RIA Novosti. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will make a working visit to Yerevan on October 1, where he will take part in a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council and a plenary session of the Eurasian Economic Forum, the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers reported.

"On October 1, 2024, in Yerevan, Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Mikhail Mishustin will take part in a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council and a plenary session of the Eurasian Economic Forum (EEF) on the topic "Digitalization in Modern Realities - an Imperative for Ensuring the Four Freedoms," the statement said.

It is noted that during the meeting, the heads of government of Russia, Armenia , Belarus , Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will discuss current issues of deepening integration within the Eurasian Economic Union . Particular attention will be paid to the functioning of the domestic market, development of cooperation in the industrial, transport, customs and tariff, agricultural and energy spheres.

In addition, the heads of government will consider the main areas of industrial cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union until 2030.

The meeting is expected to be attended by observer states to the Union and invited guests.

The upcoming meeting of the Intergovernmental Council will be the 40th since the beginning of the Eurasian Economic Union and the third this year. The previous meeting took place on June 3-4 in Nesvizh (Belarus).

https://ria.ru/20240929/mishustin-1975388040.html

Gonna be pointless. Armenia is becoming an enemy state of Russia.

You can't tell teenagers what to do... let them make their mistakes and tell them they are neighbours and we can still be friends after the west shits all over them... because they will eventually...

They have been in Germany and Japan almost 80 years now with no signs of leaving...

Russia observes the evolution of Armenian dignity, by Timofey Bordachev, programme director of the Valdai Club, for VZGLYAD. 09.30.2024.

Problems with the ability to determine their own destiny are experienced by such large and successful countries as Germany or Japan. What can we say about small Armenia, no matter how sad it is for us in Russia.

A year ago, the people of Armenia lost one of the most important centers of their civilization. And we have absolutely no idea what the fate of the entire Armenian statehood will be in the future.

The current situation in Armenia is the most convincing proof that many of the basic criteria for assessing the viability of states are now completely inapplicable. For several years now, Armenian statehood has been experiencing events and processes that would traditionally be perceived as signs of a national catastrophe. This is a lost war with a historical enemy that was simply routed 30 years ago, the exodus of the Armenian population from the center of its own civilization, a conflict with a close ally, and complete uncertainty about the political future.

It is difficult to imagine that things could get any worse after what Armenia has been through over the past six years.

However, we see that society and the state can exist and even develop in completely amazing conditions. Moreover, economic life in the republic does not stop, the streets of its capital are filled with smartly dressed people and no catastrophe is felt.

For Russia, everything that is happening here is of interest for two reasons. First, what is the reason for what is happening to our Armenian friends? Second, what objective threats and concerns might this pose for Russia itself?

The first is interesting to us because every story of success or failure in the former Soviet Union is material that needs to be known and understood for future Russian policy. The second is important in the short term because we can be sure that the West will try to use any opportunity to harm Russia. And this is if we exclude the impact on bilateral relations of the rhetoric of the Armenian authorities, which we quite reasonably perceive as emotional attacks.

Of all the republics of the former USSR, it was Armenia that looked the most cheerful at the first stage of its sudden independence in 1991. It was in the classical understanding of sovereignty, where the ability to defend one's interests and values ​​with the help of brute force comes first. This allowed its people to look to the future with sufficient confidence, the leadership to feel proud of itself, and Russia to feel confident in its ally. However, over the subsequent quarter of a century, serious problems accumulated in the republic, which were prevented from being systematically resolved by the feeling of general complacency and even some complacency. Against the backdrop of this complacency, the republic's political elite was busy with anything but building serious armed forces and solving the pressing problems of ordinary citizens.

The result was the popularly supported domestic political changes of 2018, with which many observers associate the beginning of the accelerated militarization of neighboring Azerbaijan, and then the tragic outcome for Armenia of the second Karabakh war in 2020.

The exodus of the entire Armenian population of Karabakh in September 2023 is a consequence of the defeat of 2020 and the way politics in the South Caucasus developed after that. Baku became increasingly confident in its ability to solve a long-standing problem by force, while Yerevan tried to play a complex diplomatic game. Now we are at a new turn of the drama, when Armenia's control over part of its own national territory is being called into question.

At the same time, the economic situation in the republic has noticeably improved. First of all, due to participation in the common market of the Eurasian Union and the mediating role in the conditions of Western sanctions against Russia. Here, the traditional flexibility of Armenian business, its broad connections with the Russian market and the ability to creatively bypass the restrictions created by the government's desire to be friends with the West help. And the Americans themselves, apparently, are quite calm about the fact that Armenia maintains intensive relations with Russia at the level of economics and human ties. Perhaps because Washington views them as a potential resource for conducting hostile activities against Russia.

All this taken together is the main reason why foreign policy defeats do not affect the ability of the ruling group to firmly hold power in Armenia. Moreover, society does not see an alternative to the government of Nikol Pashinyan - all the old elites have discredited themselves. So now the dominant mood in Armenia is the readiness to meekly accept everything that is happening to it. Without any noticeable desire to reverse the course of events, which from the outside most resembles a gradual slide into the abyss.

For us in Russia, such a mood seems unnatural and causes some concern for the fate of one of our closest nations. In Yerevan, this concern is taken for a desire to dictate to the republic how it should manage its future. Russia's sincerity is met with misunderstanding on the part of our friends, who live by different ideas about sovereignty and the dignity of the state.

Perhaps we should abandon the perception of Armenian reality based on our ideas about what a sovereign state is. After all, the modern world is quite harsh even towards large states. And it is far from certain that the ability to defend one's interests and values ​​in the current conditions is inherent in all formally independent countries and territories.

The current international system emerged in an era of relative stability and economic prosperity. Those times are over. Only large and successful countries like Germany and Japan are experiencing problems with the ability to determine their own destiny. What can we say about small Armenia, no matter how sad it is for us in Russia.

It is quite possible that the best way to meet the needs of its population is to join one of its regional neighbors without any special claims to independence. And God bless sovereignty in our traditional understanding of it.

However, even this is no guarantee that the long-awaited peace for Armenia will be ensured. The fact that the republic is directly adjacent to the Russian security perimeter could create new difficulties for it, regardless of whether the Armenian government itself wants to quarrel even more with Moscow.

We see that the US sacrifices entire nations with astonishing ease in order to harm Russia or China, and to continue its parasitic existence. And these days we can also see that the consequence of the intricacies of the policies of Iran or the Arab countries is the ever greater assertiveness of Israel. Whole small states may fall victim to it. In September 2023, the entire West looked with great indifference at the expulsion of Armenians from Karabakh. There is hardly any reason to think that the possibility of a new tragedy for this people will be a deterrent for Washington or Paris.

Russia, of course, cannot but recognize the choice of the people of Armenia even if it does not correspond at all to our ideas of what a sovereign state is. Moreover, we will probably accept any scenario that Armenian society itself does not oppose. But it is unlikely that Russia will be able to maintain the same degree of restraint if the consequences of such a choice will directly harm its interests and the security of our citizens.

Therefore, in practical terms, it is important for Russia to closely monitor how the presence of those forces in Armenia is developing, for whom harming us is an absolute foreign policy priority. It is important to prevent a situation where the consequences of their activities begin to cause direct harm to Armenian society and lead to a rupture of the traditional ties between us.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/9/30/1289859.html

Putin announced the dynamic development of relations between Russia and Armenia, 10.08.2024.

Putin: Russia-Armenia relations are developing dynamically.

MOSCOW, 8 Oct — RIA Novosti. Vladimir Putin received Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin and noted the dynamic development of trade and economic relations between the two countries.

Earlier, the Russian president held a separate meeting with the leader of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.

As the head of state’s aide Yuri Ushakov told journalists, Moscow is playing an active role in normalizing relations between Baku and Yerevan.

Aliyev and Pashinyan arrived in Moscow to participate in the meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the CIS, which will be chaired by the Russian President.

The event will also be attended by the presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

The leaders' communication began the day before. On Monday, October 7, the Russian president's birthday, the heads of state gathered for an informal meeting, which became preparation for the summit.

https://ria.ru/20241008/putin-1976970419.html

You think Shitpaninyan and those Armenian losers care? They want to be ruled by the United States.

If the Armenian people support them and keep them in power that means the people of Armenia are happy with this too.

They are no some princess in some tall tower guarded by a dragon that Russia must rescue over and over again... as one of the articles above points out... there was no outcry or even a simple response to Armenians being kicked out of Nagorno Karabakh in 2023... they didn't care at all... what are the chances they will care about other problems that might befall the Armenian people?

They just want another stick to prod the Bear with and they will use up as many sticks as it takes... if Armenians want that sort of leadership then that is not their problem... but if they do start getting Bio Weapons labs on their soil and HATO bases and HATO troops on their land then I suspect the relations with Russia will suffer and Russia will be less likely to trade with what has become an enemy state.