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    Syria situation after the fall of Baath regime #1

    billybatts91
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    Post  billybatts91 Fri Dec 13, 2024 6:54 pm

    The value of the bases was useful for Russia because of their location. It was never about keeping Assad in power, but it was about keeping US supported terrorists from taking over and then breaking because of all the factions whose only thing keeping them together was the fight against Assad... once Assad is gone these groups are not going to cooperate well together meaning instead of a transition from Assad to some other government it will likely be more like Libya... from organized government to factions fighting a civil war.

    Russia was never about telling Syria how to behave or what laws to have. If the Syrian government wants its women in ninja suits and to never walk alone without a male family member then that is their business... Russia will never tell them what is right or wrong.

    I understand that point but having two important bases in a country with leadership that's in bed with Turkey/NATO/anti-Russian jihadists, while Russia is in conflict with these folks in Ukraine is not desirable.

    They've already broken deals and have escalated to harm Russia's interests, why would they be trusted now? With expensive equipment and Russian servicemen at these bases. Where else on earth does a great power have bases in a country whose people and leadership that largely despises them and one in which that great power bombed them for years and did everything they could to destroy them...It's too messy and there's no point in Russia being in Syria as of now.

    Russia should build bases in North Africa, they have the transport planes that can reach there and no need for refueling. Start fresh, Africa relations are more important now for Russia. They've already hurt Western interests there and can continue to do so with new bases set up if they want to...
    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:31 pm

    These bases are very convenient targets in future political games. You can call them hostages, if you will. Located in hostile territory, with enemy installations next door. In the case of Hmeimim, airport can be closed just by placing some people with MANPADS on surrounding roofs. Whole airport defense can be overwhelmed in matter of minutes with FPV drones. It gives Turkey or whoever controls these fuckers very strong position combined with plausible deniability.

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    Eugenio Argentina
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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:37 pm

    🇷🇺🇸🇾The new Syrian authorities are watching the landing of a Russian Il-76MD at the Khmeimim airbase.


    https://t.me/intelslava/71157
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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:40 pm

    Why Israel now seeks to wipe out Syria’s anti-air capabilities?

    The obliteration of Syria’s air defenses by Israeli airstrikes does little to Iran’s security, Russian military expert Yuri Lyamin of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies think tank tells Sputnik.

    Syrian anti-air capabilities during Bashar al-Assad’s reign served as a source of early warning for Iran and helped keep the Israeli air force in check, he explains. The collapse of the Syrian Arab Republic deprived Iran of this asset.

    “It should be noted, however, that Syrian air defense has already been weakened by Israeli strikes – many radar stations and air defense systems were destroyed in the past few years,” Lyamin remarks, pointing out that Syrian defenses did not hamper the October 26 Israeli attack on Iran.

    According to Lyamin, Israeli strikes on Syrian military infrastructure are simply meant to weaken Syria, to ensure that it remains weak no matter who ends up seizing power there.

    With the Syrian army basically ceasing to exist and other armed groups in the country lacking adequate air defenses, Israeli aircraft can now attack whichever targets in Syria they want with impunity, he notes.

    Lyamin also warns that reports about US President-elect Donald Trump allegedly mulling strikes against Iran to prevent the latter from developing nuclear weapons may not be just efforts to put pressure on Tehran.

    Some of Iran’s key nuclear sites are hidden so deep underground, he explains, that, nuclear weapons aside, they could only be destroyed by the “most powerful bombs” that only the US strategic bombers can carry.
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    Post  billybatts91 Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:50 pm

    Exactly, these Russian bases are hostages and they'll always have to look over their shoulders now, with enemies around them...Could cause a massive issue for Russia, one that's avoidable if they just leave...

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    Post  lyle6 Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:57 pm

    Just eat the L. The Russians are not going anywhere. Anyone fucks with the bases they get their ass stuffed with FAB bombs they are going to shit shrapnel in hell.

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    Post  billybatts91 Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:16 pm

    Maybe they've listened to reason!


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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:38 pm


    Pussying out is how Soviets lost the Cold War and were flushed down toilet bowl of history

    Makes sense that Russia is keeping up with tradition and heading for the same ending





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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:49 pm

    All these years, the rebels have not been able to do anything to affect the Russian bases in Syria.
    I don't think that will change now.
    And as I said before, Israel has taken care of destroying most of the weapons that could have given the rebels a chance to attack.
    Not to mention that there are several differences between the various factions and they may end up fighting each other.


    Cool

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    Eugenio Argentina
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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:51 pm

    Something to illustrate what I wrote above:

    🇮🇱🇸🇾More footage of the aftermath of the Israeli Air Force strikes on the Mezeh airbase near Damascus, where a Buk-M2 air defense system and Gazelle SA.342L helicopters of the former Syrian army were destroyed .

    Also in the photo is a Pantsir-S1 air defense missile and gun system destroyed on the march, several abandoned T-72M1s , a BMP-1 and a Shilka in various technical conditions.

    https://t.me/intelslava/71158

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    George1
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    Post  George1 Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:15 pm

    Maybe they leave the Hmeimim air base but keep the Tartus naval base

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    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:17 pm

    Keeping the bases would make sense if Alawite state was created. Not so much anymore. Heck, i could even see Ukrainians trying to harm Russian servicemen with the help of Ajnad al Kavkaz (Chechens) or some of the Central Asian groups. All it would take is a few dozen FPV drones and logistics provided by one of these groups (protection and transportation).

    Off topic, but as a point of interest, that Uzbek "journalist" that was seen in Hama airport and other places, "reporting" in Russian, finished his studies in Russia, Sankt Peterburg, to be exact. Also, one of the leaders of similar stan jihadi groups studied IT in Russia, as well.

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:18 pm

    The situation in Syria in the eyes of a Yemeni cartoonist

    Syria situation after the fall of Baath regime #1 - Page 18 GetHgITW0AAVk1G?format=png&name=900x900

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:35 pm

    Pussying out is how Soviets lost the Cold War and were flushed down toilet bowl of history

    Makes sense that Russia is keeping up with tradition and heading for the same ending

    And overextending and spending money on pointless shit like the war in Afghanistan is what got the Soviets in that situation in the first place

    Hostilities with NATO slowly escalating, and they won in Syria, no point having all those goodies stranded there. They'll be better made use of elsewhere. End of.

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    Post  Arrow Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:39 pm

    Hostilities with NATO slowly escalating, and they won in Syria, wrote:

    We'll see if he wins in Ukraine too.
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    Post  flamming_python Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:46 pm

    We'll see if he wins in Ukraine too.

    If our forces were bought off and disbanded like the Syrian Arab Army was, then sure NATO will win in the Ukraine too. But ours won't, hence they won't win. Because that's the only way they really know how to fight, either bombing 3rd worlders, or getting some peons like the Ukrainians to do their bidding, or just buying and corrupting the leadership. But if they have to go up against a peer adversary without any cheese tactics then they're not winning.

    And perhaps you should switch to a NATO forum if you've already chosen your side and who's winning according to you. WTF are you doing here?

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    Post  Arrow Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:48 pm

    I agree, it's better to focus on Ukraine. Russia doesn't need Syria. However, Russia will probably keep the bases anyway.
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    Post  Arrow Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:51 pm

    And perhaps you should switch to a NATO forum if you've already chosen your side and who's winning according to you. WTF are you doing here? wrote:

    If Russia consistently continues to lead the SMO, it will win without a problem. If Trump comes up with some kind of agreement and freezing the conflict and Putin goes for it, it is a victory for NATO. Although I personally doubt that Russia will fall for it again, the West will try the trick from 2014, especially now when Russia is close to the collapse of the Ukrainian front.
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    Post  flamming_python Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:52 pm

    If Russia consistently continues to lead the SMO, it will win without a problem. If Trump comes up with some kind of agreement and freezing the conflict and Putin goes for it, it is a victory for NATO. Although I personally doubt that Russia will fall for it again, the West will try the trick from 2014, especially now when Russia is close to the collapse of the Ukrainian front.

    So you answered your own question. Now quit with the retarded rhetoricals.

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Sat Dec 14, 2024 12:57 am

    ResistanceTrench mirror, [13/12/2024 18:27]
    The Syrian "revolution" has ordered Palestinian armed resistance to be disbanded.

    *Cough* We told you so.

    What will be the lame excuse from London-based Salafis on this one?

    ResistanceTrench mirror, [13/12/2024 18:29]
    The "Syrian rebels" are distancing themselves from Hamas.

    Obeida Arnaout, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham spokesperson, responded to a journalist's question about whether what the rebels did in Aleppo is similar to what happened on October 7:

    His answer: "I challenge anyone to show a single piece of evidence that we harmed a civilian. The instructions from the leadership were clear – not to harm anyone."

    🚩 @ResistanceTrench

    ResistanceTrench mirror, [13/12/2024 18:36]
    🇵🇸🇸🇾 "Syrian rebels" has told Palestinian groups present in the Syria that they must hand over their weapons within a week and disband.

    🚩 @ResistanceTrench
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    Post  ucmvulcan Sat Dec 14, 2024 2:34 am

    Hmmm, Islamic radicals who don't attack Israel? Its like Independent Fundamentalist Baptists who don't tell Catholics and Orthodox that they are going to hell. Now, why would a radical Islamicist never attack Israel? Is it too tinfoil hatted of me to say follow the money?

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    Post  kvs Sat Dec 14, 2024 3:25 am

    The jihadi makeover of the Middle East was engineered by the US, its NATzO allies, and their main protectorate, the Saudis. It was and remains
    a way to regime change and exert colonial control. The Middle East was going an independent path in the 1950s and 60s and that was not
    acceptable. So we had the same colonial BS as in Latin America.

    The jihadis are not grass roots. They are western stooges.

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    Post  thegopnik Sat Dec 14, 2024 4:19 am

    I dont want to state the super obvious, but Russia was always too scared to target the SDF or US troops that are with them. Example 1: Turkey gave no fucks bombing an oil field where US soldiers were stationed with the Kurds. Example 2: they support the HTS which does not mind attacking US proxies in Syria. Russia can always come back later if they don't want to touch the US.
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    Post  nomadski Sat Dec 14, 2024 8:52 am

    @ thegopnik

    There are attacks and " attacks. " Tautology does not exist . That is why I can say white is white , and make sense . The first white is different to the second white . Like the Taliban attacking the USA  troops , don't make them anti- Imperialist or democrats . Nor if Turkey or HTS attacking Israel , should it happen , make them anti - Zionist , or democrat .

    These " attacks , " by Turkey or HTS on USA " proxy, " should be seen as skirmishes . A domestic argument in an unhappy home . The husband gets hit on the head , with the frying pan . But Russia attacking is different . Iran attacking is different . Russia did not attack NATO , but they got hit badly . Iran attaked Israel , but they were not hit .

    Rolling Eyes
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    Post  sepheronx Sat Dec 14, 2024 10:05 am

    Russia will keep the bases.

    I just hope they can carve out a nice area in the region for the safety of those who sided with Russia.

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