US-India Defense Ties

As I & others been saying: https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/how-modi-fell-prey-to-coconut-strategy-on-china/?mc_cid=3831ddbacd&mc_eid=5455568640

https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-india-navies-joint-military-operations

They r getting ready to checkmate the PLAN in the Indian Ocean & block the Strait of Malacca.

What do you mean by checkmate?

Do you understand what that means?

Are you actually suggesting an exercise by Indian, Australian, and US ships will defeat China in any way or form?

These are just stupid games the US likes to play and drag other countries in on... China wont care that the US doesn't not recognise their claims... why would they start caring now?

If anything this is rather sad because India is being dragged into a conflict they are not going to gain anything from except an escalation in tensions with an neighbour... and unlike the US India can't run away when things go wrong... China and India are neighbours... the US would love to see a conflict start there because it would be like the war in Europe during WWII... entertaining but ultimately good for production in the US of A.

Are you actually suggesting an exercise by Indian, Australian, and US ships will defeat China in any way or form?

They r training for joint ops there- even if China secures the SC Sea for itself, if the Bay of Bengal becomes AD/AD, her economy, not to mention mil. ops in the Indian Ocean/ME/Africa will suffer/be harder to conduct.
India can still make China's life miserable, & the US/UK will exploit her to do exactly that.

That's also why they r exercising with other navies.
The US may have lost Philippines & Thailand as unsinkable a/c carriers, but may have gained India as 1- not as a base for their aviation, by as a proxy to be used.
But if India is smart, she won't allow it- rather, mend fences with PRC & Pakistan & join the RF-PRC-Iran + BRI connecting them strategic/economic triangle. https://www.juancole.com/2020/07/russia-sanctioned-defying.html

China and India have been more than friends and neighbors. No two countries can match their civilizational ties going back thousands of years, soulmates to the extent that India supplied philosophy and religion to a receptive China long before Christianity and Islam existed.
Home to over a third of humanity between them, India and China have lived remarkably peacefully with each other for a long time. Both suffered European colonial plunder for over a century. Following independence, their joint mission to help other newly decolonized states build a better world even came with a cheesy slogan, “Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai” (Indians and Chinese are brothers). ..
India may even extend the threater of contest to include the Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca while joining others to confront China in the South China Sea, where previously it had little interest. There is also talk of India reaching out to Taiwan.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/the-cost-of-friendship-with-china/?mc_cid=1265717e21&mc_eid=5455568640

They r training for joint ops there- even if China secures the SC Sea for itself, if the Bay of Bengal becomes AD/AD, her economy, not to mention mil. ops in the Indian Ocean/ME/Africa will suffer/be harder to conduct.

Most of the Indian Ocean and the ME and African seas are international waters... how does cooperation between India and Australia and the US change anything except perhaps each of them sharing the burden of having to shadow Chinese military ships in international waters in places each of those countries see as their own back yard?

And what Chinese Mil Ops in Indian or ME or African waters?

If I was China I would negotiate terms for a naval exercise with the Indian Navy...

India can still make China's life miserable, & the US/UK will exploit her to do exactly that.

The problem is that is mutual and the UK/US will exploit that too.

Trumps main problem is that when he sanctions China and makes it hard for big business to do business in China... most are going to move out of China... but they aren't going to move to the US like he wants... they are going to move to a place with lax labour laws and low pay rates. Pay rates in China are probably already getting too high for most western companies anyway so they would probably have made the move over the next five years or so...

But what can America and the UK do to rock the boat. The UK is leaving the EU and its parachute is India... but what if big powerful American companies leave China and go in to India and use up all the work force to make money for US companies, and for the US leadership what happens when US companies invest in India to build factories and train workers and start making western shit in India instead of in China.

If they can get India and China into a conflict it essentially torpedoes both economies they spend more on weapons which is best when US sells US weapons to India too... any sort of conflict is good if it damages both countries because both countries are potential economic rivals to the west and could become rather influential and diminish the power and position of the west.

Australia is Americas bitch in the south and will do what it is told like the EU does... America already turned the EU against Russia... imagine the economic and military power of Russia together with Europe.... EU knowhow and Russian resources... both sides would have benefited but I think Russia would have been pushed into a junior position in that relationship, and of course forced to follow the line from Brussels... so in a way that was an escape for Russia and an enormous hit in the pocket and a diminishment of power for the EU... they could have been an equal to the US, but that ship has sailed.

Now they are doing the same thing in the Pacific... everyone against the biggest obvious threat... China, but essentially the plan is to weaken both China and India... just like the plan in Europe was to weaken the EU and Russia...

And the world lets them get away with it... because it is easier to hate than to try to work together... and they are not above using race either...

But if India is smart, she won't allow it- rather, mend fences with PRC & Pakistan & join the RF-PRC-Iran + BRI connecting them strategic/economic triangle.

That is her best move for herself... the silk road initiative from China is not about breaking countries and damaging them for their own personal private gain alone... China wants every node and link in the chain to benefit and grow and develop so that everybody wins... no wonder the US and the west in general hate them for it.

India may even extend the threater of contest to include the Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca while joining others to confront China in the South China Sea, where previously it had little interest. There is also talk of India reaching out to Taiwan.

US/UK/Australia would love that move... they are probably suggesting it as we speak...

how does cooperation between India and Australia and the US change anything except perhaps each of them sharing the burden of having to shadow Chinese military ships..?

In a conflict, SLOCs to/from Indian Ocean would be cut- PLAN ships & subs would be engaged. China can forward deploy them to Pakistan, Iran & Djibouti but the RN, USN, RAN & the IN combined will still be able to have more ships & subs in the Indian Ocean.

And what Chinese Mil Ops in Indian or ME or African waters?

patrolling/protecting SLOCs/Iran/Pakistan & client states/assets, anti-piracy, watching the IN/RAN/USN, to name a few.

How the US and India became brothers in arms

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/what-biden-likely-will-and-wont-do-for-india/?mc_cid=d744a6b012&mc_eid=5455568640

If the US-PRC & US-Iran relations improve, India's importance to the US will decrease. The Indians should have no illusions- they r going to be situational/temporary allies/friends as Us priorities often change at a drop of hat.

It wasn't that long ago that the US was supporting Pakistan against India... now it supports India against China.... the US is using countries but should realise those countries are also using them...

GarryB wrote:That is her best move for herself... the silk road initiative from China is not about breaking countries and damaging them for their own personal private gain alone...

That's exactly what it is.

GarryB wrote:China wants every node and link in the chain to benefit and grow and develop so that everybody wins... no wonder the US and the west in general hate them for it.

The only country that has benefited from the BRI initiative is China. Even China's ally Pakistan is now witnessing massive anti China protests because of the huge loses being suffered by local businesses because of BRI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FCW6gZ7Eeg

GarryB wrote:the US is using countries but should realise those countries are also using them.

The only country that was able to use the U.S was China that converted the US into a massive dumping ground for Chinese products. Pakistan used the US too but only with respect to terrorism. Thereby allowing Pakistan to cement its ties with the Taliban and yet keep on receiving US military hardware for free on the pretext that they will be used against Taliban.

India needs the US because it's a large market for Indian goods and services. More importantly, given how corrupt India's executive, judiciary, bureaucracy and military is, it's very easy for the US to penetrate these areas and dictate terms to the Indian government and Indians in general.

The only country that has benefited from the BRI initiative is China. Even China's ally Pakistan is now witnessing massive anti China protests because of the huge loses being suffered by local businesses because of BRI.

Hahahahaha.... the BRI is a road from the EU to China and Asia essentially... what sort of bloody idiot thinks they will be making money now before it is even up and running?

Do you think the European companies that are working together to get NSII working are making money?

Of course not. The pipe has to be functioning before the profits start and until then it costs money to invest and be sure you are ready when it starts pumping gas.

Pakistan can be as anti Chinese as they like... if they drop out now they wont make any money at all.

The only country that was able to use the U.S was China that converted the US into a massive dumping ground for Chinese products.

Well that is a bit of imagination you have there... are you trying to say evil China forced the US buy cheap stuff made in China against Americas will?

Really?

Or do you thing ruthless American based but also international multinationals realised China offered everything they wanted... essentially slave labour... note the American government has noticed the same thing... privatising prisons means no minimum wage and no workers rights... it is big money there....

The big companies moved their production to China because it was cheap... workers wages and tax rates were nothing like what they are in the west... it was western companies that went into China and screwed Chinese workers with low wages and dangerous jobs to service the western markets with cheap shit... you can't have a consumer based economy with the people making the shit earning a living wage... not unless you make them the most productive workers in the universe. If you can find a guy that sucks up wood chips and farts out 4 x 2s then you have a licence to print money.

Pakistan used the US too but only with respect to terrorism. Thereby allowing Pakistan to cement its ties with the Taliban and yet keep on receiving US military hardware for free on the pretext that they will be used against Taliban.

Pakistan has been using western and Saudi money to try to control Afghanistan for decades, with varying degrees of success of course... most of the terrorists of 11/9 were Pakistani....

India needs the US because it's a large market for Indian goods and services. More importantly, given how corrupt India's executive, judiciary, bureaucracy and military is, it's very easy for the US to penetrate these areas and dictate terms to the Indian government and Indians in general.

Hahaha... is that what America tells you? 400 million people many of whom don't work because all their jobs moved to China is a large market... I would think 1.5 billion Chinese would be a bigger market and if you want to claim they are all poor there are more Chinese millionaires and billionaires than there are American ones these days.

US penetration and abuse of Indian corruption means they will be getting a better deal than China will... in other words China is a physically bigger market, they are not just printing dollars like monopoly money which is going to become worthless at some point... do you want to be left holding a bag of worthless US money?... they have more rich people, though the US still does have the very richest like Gates and Bezos, and the Chinese are likely to pay more for Indian goods than the weasle Americans are going to want to spend...

But by all means turn your back on China... your funeral.

GarryB wrote: the BRI is a road from the EU to China and Asia essentially.

It's not a road.It is an umbrella initiative spanning a multitude of projects designed to promote the flow of goods, investment, and people. Many of the potential benefits of BRI are less publicly articulated. For instance, some of China’s SOEs – such as cement, steel, and construction companies – have built up significant capacity (expanding factories and hiring workers) to serve the once booming domestic economy. As China’s economy has slowed, these companies are struggling to find productive uses for their resources. Similarly, China has a large reserve of savings that is not being invested productively. Investing in large-scale overseas infrastructure projects enables China to export its excess savings and put its State Owned Enterprises to work.

https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/gzdt/201503/t20150328_669091.html

BRI helps to re-orient a large part of the world economy toward China. Increasing the amount of trade, investment, and connectivity between China and countries throughout Eurasia will also render these countries more dependent on the Chinese economy, increasing China’s economic leverage over them. This in turn will empower China to more readily shape the rules and norms that govern the economic affairs of the region.

Under RCEP, China is scrapping tariffs in areas where it is already competitive. But in areas where it aims to establish long-term advantage, such as electric vehicles, it has secured long, 15-year grace period to roll back tariffs. RCEP’s entry into force is still distant, though.

GarryB wrote:are you trying to say evil China forced the US buy cheap stuff made in China against Americas will?

By manipuating the value of its local currency China has dumped billions of dollars of goods into several countries.

GarryB wrote:400 million people many of whom don't work because all their jobs moved to China is a large market... I would think 1.5 billion Chinese would be a bigger market and if you want to claim they are all poor there are more Chinese millionaires and billionaires than there are American ones these days.

Then clearly that market is not 1.5 billion strong.

GarryB wrote:US penetration and abuse of Indian corruption means they will be getting a better deal than China will.

 China does the same. They too take advantage of India's corruption.

GarryB wrote:do you want to be left holding a bag of worthless US money?

Conjecture. 75 years after the end of WW 2 the US dollar is showing no weakness at all.

GarryB wrote:But by all means turn your back on China... your funeral.

That funeral might come in some other form, not from not doing business with China.

Satellite imagery shows that China has ramped up weapons-grade fissile material production as part of a crash program to double the size of its nuclear-warhead stockpile. It has prioritized building warheads for ballistic missiles and attack submarines.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/nov/12/china-expanding-nuclear-arms-plants-revealed/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

A significant number of these nukes will be aimed at India. Already China's biggest military command called the Western Theatre is designed to invade India.

For the record Balance of trade deficit between India & China is overwhelmingly in China's favor. China imposes strict restrictions on the entry of Indian goods, services into China.

BRI helps to re-orient a large part of the world economy toward China. Increasing the amount of trade, investment, and connectivity between China and countries throughout Eurasia will also render these countries more dependent on the Chinese economy, increasing China’s economic leverage over them. This in turn will empower China to more readily shape the rules and norms that govern the economic affairs of the region.

It is like gas pipelines through the Ukraine though... China can't afford to upset any country along that route or they could just block all trade going through their country.

The reason it goes through Russia and Russian waters as well as other routes is to minimise the effect any country pulling out might have on the structure... but at the end of the day countries will make money being part of it and be isolated if they refuse to take part.

China has no way of forcing any country to join if they don't want to... this is just a business opportunity like the old silk roads moving stuff from China to Europe and back... they could make Russia the land route by rail as the fastest option... build 600km/h trains for the job so it is fast. The North Sea Route through Russian waters cuts 14 days off the trip and there are no canal fees to pay...

The advantage of being part of the silk road means you can send goods in either direction along it yourself and also receive goods from other countries too.

Trying to make open trade sound sinister and China sound like the bad guy for wanting this is amusing... and likely the result of US and UK propaganda because they wont benefit as much as Asia and the EU will.

Conjecture. 75 years after the end of WW 2 the US dollar is showing no weakness at all.

The Euro recently overtook the US dollar as the preferred international currency of choice... a first for any currency post WWII.

That funeral might come in some other form, not from not doing business with China.

Satellite imagery shows that China has ramped up weapons-grade fissile material production as part of a crash program to double the size of its nuclear-warhead stockpile. It has prioritized building warheads for ballistic missiles and attack submarines.

Of course it has... the US has been imposing sanctions and waging an economic war with them for the last presidency and it likely wont change much with Biden.... as they become economically more powerful they become a rival to the west, so they better upgrade their military or they might find the west falling back to their old tricks.

A significant number of these nukes will be aimed at India. Already China's biggest military command called the Western Theatre is designed to invade India.

Of course they are... India is aligning itself with the US, Australia and Japan... why would they not feel threatened and a need to defend themselves?

For the record Balance of trade deficit between India & China is overwhelmingly in China's favor. China imposes strict restrictions on the entry of Indian goods, services into China.

And why do you think India jumping into bed with the US and Japan and Australia would make them change those policies in your favour?

BTW I would suggest most of the stuff you import from China is made on behalf of western companies like Nike and Playstation etc etc and are not actually Chinese products.

GarryB wrote:Of course they are... India is aligning itself with the US, Australia and Japan... why would they not feel threatened and a need to defend themselves?

That is not true. India acquired nuclear weapons as a knee jerk reaction to China placing nuclear tipped DF-3A, DF-4 on the Tibetean plateau way back in the 70s and 80s that were aimed at cities across India.

GarryB wrote:And why do you think India jumping into bed with the US and Japan and Australia would make them change those policies in your favour?

India's alliance with these nations is a recent event. Chinese policies were no different in the past either.

GarryB wrote:BTW I would suggest most of the stuff you import from China is made on behalf of western companies like Nike and Playstation etc etc and are not actually Chinese products.

The brand maybe American but the factories are owned by Chinese. That aside, China exports billions of dollars of Chinese services and products to India like Tik tok, Huawei, AliBaba, PUBG among a host of other products. However, when India wants to export similar services and products to China they put up trade barriers.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-is-helping-india-keep-an-eye-on-chinas-military-top-us-commanders-say/ar-BB1c9cUQ?li=BBnbfcL

U.S. Navy Challenges Quad Partner India's 'Excessive' Claims at Sea, Met with 'Concerns'
I think this may be a warning to India not to mend fences with China at the expense of India's relations with the US. Also, the US wants to be seen as not using double standards in their relations with both.

That is not true. India acquired nuclear weapons as a knee jerk reaction to China placing nuclear tipped DF-3A, DF-4 on the Tibetean plateau way back in the 70s and 80s that were aimed at cities across India.

70s and 80s... they could just as easily been aimed at the Soviet Union and Afghanistan...

India's alliance with these nations is a recent event. Chinese policies were no different in the past either.

The fact that you joined such an alliance suggests what sort of neighbour you are being... weren't you also part of BRICS... the idea of a multipolar world means everyone is equal and has a say... in the current western world order the US dictates and the west does as it is told... seems to me you are picking the wrong team.

They recognise your growth potential.... look at China to see it, but they are going to try to use you to counter them in an attempt to sabotage both countries and for them to remain on top.

The US does not raise allies to its level... its sits on top of them like a fat white rich guy using poor countries as a mattress and pillows.

Indias future with the west is to remain a third world shithole, with cheap labour, where anyone with money or power escapes to the west for comfort.

BRICS is about helping each other to develop and grow and trade and not have one country dominate or control another...

The brand maybe American but the factories are owned by Chinese

The brand makes all the money... the chinese factory will make a small profit, but those expensive boots and TVs made cheaply in China means cost to make plus a tiny profit goes to China and the rest of the money goes to the Brand... which is doing nothing except collecting fees for their designs...

India no doubt does not block Chinese products because they are essentially American.

Also, the US wants to be seen as not using double standards in their relations with both.

Why would they start now?

Double Standards is a byword for their relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia...

Did Delhi just yield the Indian Ocean to the US?
The guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones sailing past the Lakshadweep Islands off the coast of Kerala last week showed it regards India’s EEZ as part of a 'global commons' where the US will act as it deems fit. One leading daily noted it as a “rare falling out between the two partners in the Quad grouping.”

https://fpif.org/us-choosing-wrong-side-in-india/

GarryB wrote:The fact that you joined such an alliance suggests what sort of neighbour you are being...

What sort of neighbor are we being? China repeatedly vetoes UN efforts to blacklist Pakistan based Islamic terrorist groups that regularly targets India.

https://time.com/5551266/china-block-un-blacklist-masood-azhar/

Did Russia side with India during last year's confrontation between India & China..NO. And Russia will suggest that we are not obliged to.

So why shouldn't India build a coalition of countries that are at the receiving end of Chinese belligerence.

More importantly, India imports a whole lot of military hardware, oil and gas from Russia. Payment for these imports has to be made in US dollars. If India refuses to maintain good relations with US and as a result of this if the US restricts India from using either the US dollar or from availing the SWIFT system how is India going to pay Russia?

China-US trade is 10X that of US India trade. Russia still considers China to be an ally.

Sujoy wrote:Did Russia side with India during last year's confrontation between India & China..NO. And Russia will suggest that we are not obliged to.

So why shouldn't India build a coalition of countries that are at the receiving end of Chinese belligerence.

More importantly, India imports a whole lot of military hardware, oil and gas from Russia. Payment for these imports has to be made in US dollars. If India refuses to maintain good relations with US and as a result of this if the US restricts India from using either the US dollar or from availing the SWIFT system how is India going to pay Russia?

China-US trade is 10X that of US India trade. Russia still considers China to be an ally.

Russia has already stated their position more than once. They think a China-India conflict is bad for both countries and it only serves the interests of the US.
And it is. India is refusing Chinese investment so their development is being delayed. The China-India border is mostly arid or mountainous land which either side has little interest in.

Russia has been working on switching trade to national currencies or something other than the US dollar. As long as India has enough goods to export to Russia I am sure the Russians would support partial payment in the Indian currency, Euros, or some other non-US denominated currency for the rest. Russia has its own payments system parallel to SWIFT.

Sujoy wrote:

GarryB wrote:The fact that you joined such an alliance suggests what sort of neighbour you are being...

What sort of neighbor are we being? China repeatedly vetoes UN efforts to blacklist Pakistan based Islamic terrorist groups that regularly targets India.

https://time.com/5551266/china-block-un-blacklist-masood-azhar/

Did Russia side with India during last year's confrontation between India & China..NO. And Russia will suggest that we are not obliged to.

So why shouldn't India build a coalition of countries that are at the receiving end of Chinese belligerence.

More importantly, India imports a whole lot of military hardware, oil and gas from Russia. Payment for these imports has to be made in US dollars. If India refuses to maintain good relations with US and as a result of this if the US restricts India from using either the US dollar or from availing the SWIFT system how is India going to pay Russia?

China-US trade is 10X that of US India trade. Russia still considers China to be an ally.

Its not about trade alone, India never ever objected to stronger ties between china and Russia despite the fact that china was doing everything to undermine India diplomatically with pak at UN where Russia abstained and US-France vetoed

Secondly India on Russia's popping up joined SCO, BRICS and later china entered pak too just to tame India while fully aware pak has financially or trade wise nothing much to offer to BRICS, SCO except to bring bilateral ties with India to these forums to undermine India at china's insistence

In diplomacy every nation looks after its own interest first and so Russia and India too are doing the same hence some divergence of views which may narrow down or may increase in future but ties will remain robust as trade which is dismal at 10 b $ now might increae

What sort of neighbor are we being? China repeatedly vetoes UN efforts to blacklist Pakistan based Islamic terrorist groups that regularly targets India.

So do you talk to them about it or jump straight into bed with the US who supported Pakistan that also targets India?

Amusing that Chinas sins are unforgivable, but Americas ones are not even noticed.

Did Russia side with India during last year's confrontation between India & China..NO. And Russia will suggest that we are not obliged to.

Would it have made any difference if they did?

A brother should never support a conflict between other brothers... trying to negotiate an agreement makes more sense...

Picking a side and escalating the conflict is something an enemy would do.

So why shouldn't India build a coalition of countries that are at the receiving end of Chinese belligerence.

American, Australia, and Japan are not on the receiving end of Chinese belligerence... America and Australia and Japan have been poking the Dragon for centuries.

More importantly, India imports a whole lot of military hardware, oil and gas from Russia. Payment for these imports has to be made in US dollars.

I am sure they would be happy to negotiate other terms.... Euros, Rubles, Rupees, it is a question of taking the time and working out something that is fair and both sides are happy with.

If India refuses to maintain good relations with US and as a result of this if the US restricts India from using either the US dollar or from availing the SWIFT system how is India going to pay Russia?

So the US is not your ally and friend... it is your hostage taker... so why are you helping your assailant and screwing over a fellow victim.

China wants to grow and develop via trade, the US wants to use you as a battering ram to damage China because China is an economic rival and you have the potential to grow and develop at a similar rate too. By using you to damage China and be damaged in the encounter they are killing two birds with one stone by damaging India... a potential rival, and China, an actual economic rival... while at the same time damaging BRICS, which is a grouping of economic threats to the western rule of the world.

China-US trade is 10X that of US India trade. Russia still considers China to be an ally.

The difference is clear... the US uses its "allies" as pawns... as weapons to achieve its own goals. China is not demanding Russia choose them over India or they will not direct any trade via Russian rail or airspace or waters to Europe. America is trying to blackmail Russia over a gas pipeline they have nothing to do with...

China/US trade is largely US and western companies production located in China because of the cheap workforce... when you produce all your stuff in another country and then import it home it makes it look like you are dependent on that country for trade, but the money trade goes in circles and not the way you might think looking in from the outside.

China exports to everyone, yet imports food and energy from Russia and is increasing its imports.

Why should Russia pick a side, especially when it knows the conflict is an artificial situation being fanned by the west to create something out of nothing because they benefit from that conflict and disorder.

India trading with Russia and China and the US and the rest of the world is a more prosperous and growing India than one stuck in a conflict with China.

China are not stupid... they understand the US switched from Pakistan to India because there is more money to be made in India than in Pakistan... China knows that and Russia knows that but so many economies are closed to Russia right now they can't afford to be picky about who they trade with.

I am sure Russia will run military weapon sales past India before going forward with them with Pakistan, but most of the time they will be notifying you rather than asking for permission. There will be some things they will want approval/permission for, because they don't want to damage relations... but you are already doing that yourself by getting into bed with the devil.

They aren't going to tell you not to, or what to do, but they might start saying that if you want US gear then selling Russian stuff to more countries can offset the loss of custom so to speak.

I can't see the US leasing a Seawolf class SSN to India, nor allowing India to have a level of control over a 5th gen fighter project like Russia offered, but Russia wont make any demands.

They likely will just start revising their offers.

In diplomacy every nation looks after its own interest first and so Russia and India too are doing the same hence some divergence of views which may narrow down or may increase in future but ties will remain robust as trade which is dismal at 10 b $ now might increae

Russia probably has higher trade figures with Ukraine...