Russian Civil Aviation: News

kvs wrote:

Rmf wrote:1000/20yrs, thats 50 per year, do they have production facilities and qualified staff for production of 4-5 planes per month?

Obviously they do.   In fact they have capacity to produce over 100 per year.

They have right now, the capacity to make 100 MC-21 per year?

Rofl.

Can the moderators shut this retarded troll up, please.

http://www.aex.ru/news/2015/1/29/129748/

UAC will increase production by 20% from 2014 to 2015. The production of aircraft will
increase from 161 to 193. For the troll-tards, this means that there are no production
bottlenecks in Russia for both civilian and military aircraft. As the demand increases,
the production increases and there is no shortage.

For TR1, the math illiterate, a 7% annual growth rate translates into a doubling every 10 years.

So, to summarize, no, they do not have the capability to produce even 100 SSJ yearly, let alone MS-21 and will not have that capability for many years.

lol @ no production bottlenecks. They missed SSJ production goals repeatedly.
2014 they planned to make 40 or more Superjets. Was that number met? No, they only flew 34.

TR1 wrote:So, to summarize, no, they do not have the capability to produce even 100 SSJ yearly, let alone MS-21 and will not have that capability for many years.

lol @ no production bottlenecks. They missed SSJ production goals repeatedly.
2014 they planned to make 40 or more Superjets. Was that number met? No, they only flew 34.

Do you always ignore sources and information linked or are your believed numbers superior in any instance?

Werewolf wrote:

TR1 wrote:So, to summarize, no, they do not have the capability to produce even 100 SSJ yearly, let alone MS-21 and will not have that capability for many years.

lol @ no production bottlenecks. They missed SSJ production goals repeatedly.
2014 they planned to make 40 or more Superjets. Was that number met? No, they only flew 34.

Do you always ignore sources and information linked or are your believed numbers superior in any instance?

I just listed facts. You can feel free to prove me wrong.

TR1 wrote:

Werewolf wrote:

TR1 wrote:So, to summarize, no, they do not have the capability to produce even 100 SSJ yearly, let alone MS-21 and will not have that capability for many years.

lol @ no production bottlenecks. They missed SSJ production goals repeatedly.
2014 they planned to make 40 or more Superjets. Was that number met? No, they only flew 34.

Do you always ignore sources and information linked or are your believed numbers superior in any instance?

I just listed facts. You can feel free to prove me wrong.

No thanks, last time i proved you wrong you started a 7 page bitching contest, calling Fofanovs numbers major bullshit and ignored everything of context, not going to jerk around with your superiority complex this time, wouldn't change anything anyway.

Wow, you just coped out hard.

No bitchfest needed, just show me something that indicates Russia can make 100 MS-21 this year, or next year, or even the year after. Or after.

I mean, surely you can tell why that notion is asenine?

Do you even understand how aircraft production works? Where the MS-21 is goign to be made? How many birds and at what pace Russia makes them today?

Werewolf wrote:

TR1 wrote:

Werewolf wrote:

TR1 wrote:So, to summarize, no, they do not have the capability to produce even 100 SSJ yearly, let alone MS-21 and will not have that capability for many years.

lol @ no production bottlenecks. They missed SSJ production goals repeatedly.
2014 they planned to make 40 or more Superjets. Was that number met? No, they only flew 34.

Do you always ignore sources and information linked or are your believed numbers superior in any instance?

I just listed facts. You can feel free to prove me wrong.

No thanks, last time i proved you wrong you started a 7 page bitching contest, calling Fofanovs numbers major bullshit and ignored everything of context, not going to jerk around with your superiority complex this time, wouldn't change anything anyway.

Also, nice way to admit you were laughably wrong. It's ok. It will hurt less with time.

In the Sverdlovsk region opened an innovative Aviation Technology Center

January 28 in the Sverdlovsk region opened an innovative aviation-technical center "Ural Airlines", which would allow for maintenance of aircraft of any airline in the world. It is the third largest complex in Russia, which can perform the most complex repairs aircraft.
Opening of the complex will provide all of the Sverdlovsk region a significant economic impact. The new center will create new jobs and provide additional revenue. Savings in maintenance and repair will allow airlines to increase park vessels and thus further increase the accessibility of the Middle Urals, its investment attractiveness.

Really, just a repair center for civil aircrafts. But you know, news is news and more work for locals.

Viktor wrote:Russia, China to Invest $13Bln Into New Long-Haul Airplane Project
"...The engine, he said, could be left to an outside manufacturer since Russia has no production plans for engines of this kind..."

Uh... Sure, why not hinge the entire program on cooperation with western engine OEM?
TBH, I think that's disinformation/ covering up for engine plans which are not entirely nailed down yet, possibly due to question of sharing with other platforms and/or derivatives of this jet (e.g. tankers).

Is a 4 year gap between flight tests and commercial production standard for Russian/Soviet civil airliners? That seems excessive by western standards, although it can also just be "insurance" against schedule slip...

I swear TR1 ends up butting heads with everyone on this site

They are developing PD-30 engine for new aircraft but thats like long term goal initial engine will be a foreign one like MS-21 flying with P&W

TR1 wrote:So, to summarize, no, they do not have the capability to produce even 100 SSJ yearly, let alone MS-21 and will not have that capability for many years.

lol @ no production bottlenecks. They missed SSJ production goals repeatedly.
2014 they planned to make 40 or more Superjets. Was that number met? No, they only flew 34.

All companies that are engaged in sales or production make forecasts.

These forecasts are not based on past performance only.
There are so many other factors and variables that affect a forecast.

Your method of forecasting anything on this forum (and others) is solely based on past performance with absolute or no improvement expectations in the future.

As a matter of fact, SSJ production has increased every year since production start.

It is expected to rise this year too: http://www.1prime.biz/news/transport_automobile/_Russias_UAC_to_supply_44_SSJ-100_planes_to_clients_in_2015/0/%7B818E4D37-C80D-4BE6-AB4C-1DBB191FCD2E%7D.uif

The SSJ may actually reach, exceed or fail the forecast of course. But production is expected to increase for 2015.
Now, how about 2016 or 2017 and beyond? is 50 a year a reasonable and reachable objective in a few years?

Same applies to MC-21.
The big debate is whether they will make 1000 units in 20 years.
Well, they may succeed or fail. We don't know.
But, that is what Rogozin is forecasting. And you are accusing him of talking through his arse.

A forecast is a forecast. If they end up making 999 units or 899  or 1099 units or whatever. That does not mean that he is a liar or an a-hole.


Edit: Some fresh news about SSJ

http://www.1prime.biz/news/transport_automobile/_Mexicos_Interjest_to_purchase_10_more_Russian_SSJ-100_planes/0/%7B6121776C-B838-4538-9A83-D4CE2B0DAC4F%7D.uif

flamming_python wrote:I swear TR1 ends up butting heads with everyone on this site

I get offended when people pull orders out of their ass (or make up projections that are hilariously wrong) and then accuse me of shitting on a project that in this very thread I defended.

I mean, how daft can you (not you, you know who I mean) be?

[quote="TheArmenian"]

TR1 wrote:

Your method of forecasting anything on this forum (and others) is solely based on past performance with absolute or no improvement expectations in the future.

No, my method is grounded in reality. Do I think SSJ production will ramp up? Yes, undoubtedly.
Do I think there is a production bottleneck? Missed production numbers imply there is.
Do I think there will be a capacity to make 100 SSJs a year? Physically, it is possible, though would take several years even if there was not an economic crisis. But given the state of orders, I also think this is impossible.

Do I think there is capacity to produce 100 MS-21 right now, or even within the next 5 years? No, absolutely not. There is not a need, there is not a capacity, there is nothing to suggest so whatsoever.

As for Rogozin, the guy has a track-record of BSing and nationalistic blustering. I can make a tome of his BS predictions, his utter lack of technical knowlege, and general uselessness. Has he predicted which airlines will buy the MC-21? Is he aware of that particular market dynamics and characteristics? Yeah right.
Every insider rumor I have heard is that the guy is enthusiastic, but a moron. I think that sums him up well.

I've listened to many of his press-releases, his "interviews", and they are all extraordinarily useless.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1159520.html

Finally, the obvious comes out. Also funny considering Rogozin's babbling on the topic.

New president of UAC says making Il-114 in current form is pointless. They are looking at making a new plane with some commonality with Il-112.
Commonality might include engines, wing, and electronics. Fuselage will come from Il-114- but will be widened, so factually be new.

Assuming they even decide to go through with it.

In my humble opinion, they should just make a civilian version of the Il-112. that would be the most cost-effective solution.

Something like the AN-24 (civilian) and AN-26 (cargo) duo.

No, my method is grounded in reality. Do I think SSJ production will ramp up? Yes, undoubtedly.
Do I think there is a production bottleneck? Missed production numbers imply there is.
Do I think there will be a capacity to make 100 SSJs a year? Physically, it is possible, though would take several years even if there was not an economic crisis. But given the state of orders, I also think this is impossible.

Hmmm, you start that sentence talking about reality... as if anyone who doesn't agree with you is a dreamer, and you end the next sentence giving your opinion.

Perhaps there would be less problems if you leave out that first sentence more often?

As for Rogozin, the guy has a track-record of BSing and nationalistic blustering. I can make a tome of his BS predictions, his utter lack of technical knowlege, and general uselessness. Has he predicted which airlines will buy the MC-21? Is he aware of that particular market dynamics and characteristics? Yeah right.
Every insider rumor I have heard is that the guy is enthusiastic, but a moron. I think that sums him up well.

So do you think he uses a random number generator to predict the numbers he talks about?

I rather suspect he gets advice from the experts in the field... perhaps the problem is that he listens to the top end numbers and not the average or the pessimistic low end numbers if the sky falls and the world as we know it ends.

You can say that makes him full of it, but I say that just makes him a politician.

Actually looking at the design parameters on wiki they are both max 20-25 ton max weight aircraft with payloads of 4-6 tons with similar range and performance... I guess it would make rather more sense just to adapt the Il-112 design to whatever the Il-114 can do that the current Il-112 can't.. ie wider or taller or whatever.

TR1 wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:

TR1 wrote:

Your method of forecasting anything on this forum (and others) is solely based on past performance with absolute or no improvement expectations in the future.

No, my method is grounded in reality. Do I think SSJ production will ramp up? Yes, undoubtedly.
Do I think there is a production bottleneck? Missed production numbers imply there is.
Do I think there will be a capacity to make 100 SSJs a year? Physically, it is possible, though would take several years even if there was not an economic crisis. But given the state of orders, I also think this is impossible.

Do I think there is capacity to produce 100 MS-21 right now, or even within the next 5 years? No, absolutely not. There is not a need, there is not a capacity, there is nothing to suggest so whatsoever.

As for Rogozin, the guy has a track-record of BSing and nationalistic blustering. I can make a tome of his BS predictions, his utter lack of technical knowlege, and general uselessness. Has he predicted which airlines will buy the MC-21? Is he aware of that particular market dynamics and characteristics? Yeah right.
Every insider rumor I have heard is that the guy is enthusiastic, but a moron. I think that sums him up well.

I've listened to many of his press-releases, his "interviews", and they are all extraordinarily useless.

im sure theyll learn allot from ssj and use that in ms-21 , russia has long civilian airlines tradition...
heres production for competitor airbus a320. so 5 per month seems quite on the low side and achieveable.
http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pressreleases/press-release-detail/detail/airbus-to-raise-a320-family-production-to-46-a-month-by-q2-2016/

TR1 wrote:
Every insider rumor I have heard is that the guy is enthusiastic, but a moron. I think that sums him up well.

I've listened to many of his press-releases, his "interviews", and they are all extraordinarily useless.

What was it that Hitler's Chief of Staff wrote about subordinates? The hardworking but dumb ones.. aren't they supposed to be the most dangerous?

In his current position Rogozin can't do much other than troll and chew ass. The trouble will come if he ends up moving up on the ladder.

"Substitutable avionics SuperJet we can no earlier than three years"

http://www.aviaport.ru/digest/2015/02/05/325739.html

Austin wrote:"Substitutable avionics SuperJet we can no earlier than three years"

http://www.aviaport.ru/digest/2015/02/05/325739.html

This is how production of the SSJ-100 can be kept down to satisfy certain butthurt predictions in this thread. No free market
constraints, just dirty politics by NATO to keep their market share.

It might slow down production early on, but in the long term it means more of the money in sales goes to Russian companies and there will be less strings involved as to who they can sell their planes to.

Sputniknews in Portuguese says Russia and China may compete with Boeing and Airbus. Both countries will invest 13 bn dollars in the long-range wide-body passanger airplane. First flight is planned within five years. Fuselage will be Chinese-made, while wings, rear and tail will be Russian. It will have a 280 seat capacity and range of 12 thousand km. It will be a twin-engine plane (no further info on this, but it will be most probably Russian made). Half of its structure will be composite, while 15% will be titanium and only a third (by weight) will be other materials.

http://br.sputniknews.com/mundo/20150208/92980.html