Russia and Turkey

An opportunity for Erdogan to be smart and cut his losses... he really does not benefit from having terrorists on his border... if he wants to ensure no PKK forces on his border his best way of assuring that is to let the Syrian Army forces take it over... good relations with Syria are more value than having a lawless shit crack next door where any enemy of Turkey could forment a revolt... especially if Turkey isn't prepared to spend money rebuilding the area like the syrian government would.

Regarding Cyprus, that would be a nice gesture, but I don't really see it happening.

I am sure relations between Greece and Russia and indeed Greece and Turkey would improve in such a case,

But there is of course the potential for a negative situation potential violence on the ground, along with other problems... this is not really east germany and west germany being reunited... this is greek oriented Cypriots and turkish oriented Cypriots suddenly thrust together in the same country again...

Turkeys recognition or otherwise of the status of the Crimea is neither here nor there... the only important thing is how the Crimeans see Russia and Russia sees the Crimea... and I pretty much think that is set in stone... I doubt either will lose sleep that New Zealand sees it differently... or Fiji... or any other country.

perhaps yes but then it can take years to come. US also is not gonna to leave Kurdish areas anytime soon.

Wouldn't it be amusing if as part of the agreement for Turkey to withdraw from Syrian territory, they could assist the Syrian and Russian and Iranian forces in returning illegally annexed Syrian territory from the PKK and other external "states" control.

I am sure military cooperation between Turkey and Syria and Russia and Iran would be a good team building experience... especially if the Chinese join in too...

not even in ancient Greece?

Perhaps consider it to be like the eastern ukraine... Russia cares about the situation but it is not really considered actually part of Russia these days... well certainly not enough to send the troops in.

Also like most of the Baltic states... lots of Russian speakers being oppressed, but no real grounds for the Russian army to go in and bang heads together.

GarryB wrote:

But there is of course the potential for a negative situation potential violence on the ground, along with other problems... this is not really east germany and west germany being reunited... this is greek oriented Cypriots and turkish oriented Cypriots suddenly thrust together in the same country again...

Only 40,000 of the population are original Turkish Cypriots, the rest are settlers and military personnel installed after the invasion. If they are forced to leave it would make integration easy. With a hyper-inflated lira they would beg to come in under any conditions.

Wouldn't it be amusing if as part of the agreement for Turkey to withdraw from Syrian territory, they could assist the Syrian and Russian and Iranian forces in returning illegally annexed Syrian territory from the PKK and other external "states" control.

I am sure military cooperation between Turkey and Syria and Russia and Iran would be a good team building experience... especially if the Chinese join in too...

As long as the Americans and French are holding on to Kurdish territory it is not likely anyone will make a move on it. We have already seen that they won't play when it comes to protecting the oil fields in their territory. They are growing an Army to establish an independent Kurdish state.

Perhaps consider it to be like the eastern ukraine... Russia cares about the situation but it is not really considered actually part of Russia these days... well certainly not enough to send the troops in.

Also like most of the Baltic states... lots of Russian speakers being oppressed, but no real grounds for the Russian army to go in and bang heads together.

Russian oligarchs keep their money in Cypriot banques. If anything threatened their money you would see up to military action. Of course there is always the strategic position of a basing agreement if available. It is a prime location.

The Kurd issue is not necessarily hard to solve theoretically.

You can starve them to death if Turkey and Iraq so chooses by closing the American supply routes - air and land. In such an event they're fucked and will be forced to negotiate. It all depends on Turkey's political will on one side and Iraq on the other. It's more likely to see Turkey engaging in such practice instead of Iraq... but even Iraq can be budged if its regional neighbors put enough pressure. The key problem is that both need to play this card simultaneously.

Obviously this has costs for the players involved... sanctions galore - something Iraq can hardly afford.... and Turkey is also in a shaky position to say the least. Americans play the game well given their cards.

ATLASCUB wrote:The Kurd issue is not necessarily hard to solve theoretically.

You can starve them to death if Turkey and Iraq so chooses by closing the American supply routes - air and land. In such an event they're fucked and will be forced to negotiate. It all depends on Turkey's political will on one side and Iraq on the other. It's more likely to see Turkey engaging in such practice instead of Iraq... but even Iraq can be budged if its regional neighbors put enough pressure. The key problem is that both need to play this card simultaneously.

Obviously this has costs for the players involved... sanctions galore - something Iraq can hardly afford.... and Turkey is also in a shaky position to say the least. Americans play the game well given their cards.

The US doesn't use Turkey to supply the Kurds in the first place. The main supply route is Iraq. If there was a US backed referendum for independence there is little the Iraqi military could do to stop them, the Peshmerga is far more powerful than what is left of the Iraqi Army much less getting US air support to back them up. The US probably wouldn't mind an occupation army they don't have to pay and deletes the Shia militia's influence/control. It took the Turkish Army over two months to push out a few thousand YPG fighters which is just a small fraction of their total force. That is before the US starts embargoing arms transfers which would bring the Turkish military to a grinding halt. Couple that with a worthless lira it will probably be hard to find anyone willing to go out to fight. Turkey will be facing three Kurdish armies, YPG, Peshmerga and PKK. By creating a humanitarian crisis the Kurdish ranks will swell and international assistance will flow all the while Turkey is headed into anarchy like Venezuela. It would be the perfect firestorm for the Kurds to get what they want.

Trump wants to get the f@ck out of Syria. The most likely scenario is that kurds are left with the couple french 4x4 vehicles there to protect them agains all the neighbours + russia.

They should talk with Putin and assad + EU to reach an agreement and live in peace. If they don't they will end up like those iraqi guys supported by US in 2003 .... dead or most likely get a totally destroyed life and country.

Again US care only about their own interest. They didn't even knew kurds existed before russia destroyed their moderate al quaida in syria that supported against assad.

The US doesn't use Turkey to supply the Kurds in the first place.  The main supply route is Iraq.  If there was a US backed referendum for independence there is little the Iraqi military could do to stop them, the Peshmerga is far more powerful than what is left of the Iraqi Army much less getting US air support to back them up.  The US probably wouldn't mind an occupation army they don't have to pay and deletes the Shia militia's influence/control.  It took the Turkish Army over two months to push out a few thousand YPG fighters which is just a small fraction of their total force.  That is before the US starts embargoing arms transfers which would bring the Turkish military to a grinding halt.  Couple that with a worthless lira it will probably be hard to find anyone willing to go out to fight.  Turkey will be facing three Kurdish armies, YPG, Peshmerga and PKK.  By creating a humanitarian crisis the Kurdish ranks will swell and international assistance will flow all the while Turkey is headed into anarchy like Venezuela.  It would be the perfect firestorm for the Kurds to get what they want.

Cutting off Turkish airspace hampers their room for maneuvers in case of military action against the YPG. The northern Kurds in Iraq will not, under any circumstance gain their independence. If push comes to shove, Iran, Turkey, and Iraq will send them packing to whichever Heaven they preach.... whatever the costs. If it were as easy as you claim it would have already happened. It's not American's benevolence that keeps Kurdistan from happening. The Americans didn't suddenly say NO to the referendum because they loved the Iraqi's or wanted to play a balancing act. It's because of Americans to a large extent that the current movement exists in the first place. The Americans said NO because it was bound to failure with or without their support and they knew damn well they were going to compromise their position inside Iraq for a pipedream. Which would then cut them off from Syria, and give Iraq to Iran/Russia on a silver platter. In chess, it's called checkmate.

I do find it odd that you prop the Kurds chances with high favorability of success when the balance of forces against them is completely lopsided, and in the event of hostilities with no way to resupply, they will be crushed if not by bullets, by hunger. If you think the situation in Turkey, Iran and Iraq is bad...then you must also by the same measure realize that for the Kurds it's just as bad - but unlike the other parties - there is no place that will be safe for them to run and recoup. The U.S will not be able to keep them afloat and the rats (that is, the corrupt Kurdish leadership) will flee when the heat gets close and real enough. Those who stay, will most likely get a coffin.

In the dreams of American neocons, the Kurds would have their independence by now but then reality comes knocking.

The Turks didn't make sure to cut the Kurd salient moving to the sea in Syria just because...

Vladimir79 wrote:

GarryB wrote:

But there is of course the potential for a negative situation potential violence on the ground, along with other problems... this is not really east germany and west germany being reunited... this is greek oriented Cypriots and turkish oriented Cypriots suddenly thrust together in the same country again...

Only 40,000 of the population are original Turkish Cypriots, the rest are settlers and military personnel installed after the invasion.  If they are forced to leave it would make integration easy.  With a hyper-inflated lira they would beg to come in under any conditions.  

nobody cares about it in politics though

Russian oligarchs keep their money in Cypriot banques.  If anything threatened their money you would see up to military action.  Of course there is always the strategic position of a basing agreement if available.  It is a prime location.  

Banks in Cyprus withheld billions of USD form Vekselberg and Deripaska and nothing happened...

ATLASCUB wrote:

Cutting off Turkish airspace hampers their room for maneuvers in case of military action against the YPG. The northern Kurds in Iraq will not, under any circumstance gain their independence. If push comes to shove, Iran, Turkey, and Iraq will send them packing to whichever Heaven they preach.... whatever the costs. If it were as easy as you claim it would have already happened. It's not American's benevolence that keeps Kurdistan from happening. The Americans didn't suddenly say NO to the referendum because they loved the Iraqi's or wanted to play a balancing act. It's because of Americans to a large extent that the current movement exists in the first place. The Americans said NO because it was bound to failure with or without their support and they knew damn well they were going to compromise their position inside Iraq for a pipedream. Which would then cut them off from Syria, and give Iraq to Iran/Russia on a silver platter. In chess, it's called checkmate.

I do find it odd that you prop the Kurds chances with high favorability of success when the balance of forces against them is completely lopsided, and in the event of hostilities with no way to resupply, they will be crushed if not by bullets, by hunger. If you think the situation in Turkey, Iran and Iraq is bad...then you must also by the same measure realize that for the Kurds it's just as bad - but unlike the other parties - there is no place that will be safe for them to run and recoup. The U.S will not be able to keep them afloat and the rats (that is, the corrupt Kurdish leadership) will flee when the heat gets close and real enough. Those who stay, will most likely get a coffin.

In the dreams of American neocons, the Kurds would have their independence by now but then reality comes knocking.

The Turks didn't make sure to cut the Kurd salient moving to the sea in Syria just because...

The Americans said no to the referendum because they were trying to mend relations with Turkey. Based on the stance of Erdogan it looks like those relations are coming to an end. After Erdogan hits bottom from jumping off of the deep end the US will be looking for new allies in the region. That is where the Kurds come in and why the US isn't leaving Kurdish areas even after Daesch is defeated. The Israeli lobby wants a Kurdish state as a counter to the sea of enemies they are near and the US will need a replacement for the loss of Turkey. They can gain that by carving out a Kurdish state with significant resources.

The balance of force is lopsided when TSA is at full strength. Under a US sanctions regime and the collapse of the lira it will not be an effective fighting force to combat a Kurdish insurgency which will explode in their own country, much less worrying about others. The Kurds in Iran aren't hopeful of succession so that is left out of any referendum. Iran would get involved by third party Shia militias but they have already been doing this in Iraq for many years. If they moved regular forces into Iraq it would not be a good day for them. The US is trying to combat their influence over the whole ME, that would bring them in direct contact which Iran is not ready to fight. Assad has to work out an autonomy agreement with his Kurds if he is ever going to keep them as part of Syria. The forces are great enough to defeat the YPG but not if it is backed by US air power.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

nobody cares about it in politics though

The EU cares and it is the ECB Turkey will be going to for a bailout which will have many conditions.

Banks in Cyprus withheld billions of USD form Vekselberg and Deripaska and nothing happened...

Vekselberg sold his stake in BoC, the Cypriots even offered him citizenship to get around the sanctions.

Vladimir79 wrote:

The EU cares and it is the ECB Turkey will be going to for a bailout which will have many conditions.  

EU cares about people?! like in Serbia? or Donetsk? no they care about own interests. I mean mostly French-German. If Erdo lets millions immigrants go then ECB wont be so hard to soften requirements.

Banks in Cyprus withheld billions of USD form Vekselberg and Deripaska and nothing happened...

Vekselberg sold his stake in BoC, the Cypriots even offered him citizenship to get around the sanctions.  

[/quote]

Easier would be get Isreali citizenship as for most oligarchs. DErpiaska also sole anything? And what about Switzerland or London where many of Russian oligarchs feel as at home?

The Americans said no to the referendum because they were trying to mend relations with Turkey.  

Ehh...it's obvious what the cost of saying Yes to the referendum entails...how is this in any way contrarian to what I said? Or are you simply narrowing this reason as the sole and only reason of this strategic decision? Lol please... if there was anyone they wanted to please it was the Iraqi's...the Turks as a sidepiece.

And yes this is obvious since what follows by recognizing a referendum is the cratering of relations not only with Iraq but also Turkey but it wasn't the only reason but part of a collection of reasons. The summary is that it was bound to failure with or without their support at too high a cost for the Americans. American relations with both states are in the shit today for that matter... for the leadership of both states know American designs - barring corrupt assets inside both governments (aka traitors) who could care less. In Iraq they live through carrot and stick - a well woven scheme of economic blackmail predatory on a weak state destroyed by invasion, civil war, and terrorist caliphates. In Turkey they're fucked but employ the same weapons wherever they can. If they wanted to mend relations with Turkey they could've pulled out of Nothern Syria, at the very least abandon the YPG like the Turks have offered.....but they won't and made that decision consciously.

If the Americans could of forced it on Iraq or Turkey they would have done so just like they're parking in Eastern Syria today arming the PKK (ehm YPG) to the teeth...but the current arrangement only survives because while the shenanigans from the U.S and the Kurds are dangerous for the states involved, all the players have realized what I said in the above post... the Kurds have no current path for statehood as things stand. Were the variables change in any significant way, the parties will react proportionally to make the equation continue to stay the same.

BTW this is a group whose sole existence is based on the idea of separatism (despite whatever denials or propaganda PKK fanboys like to put out) ....and Americans have aided them from the very beginning of this conflict in spite of the Turks. The Americans have not caved on anything.......it has been the Turks who have imposed their will (OP Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and what they're doing in Iraq today). But anyone that has followed the events and isn't on some mushroom crack knows this. The puppet (Turks) didn't act like a puppet after said puppet realized he was getting fucked six ways from Sunday and was gonna get ripped apart with a chainsaw. Ohh jeezz our relations are suddenly in the shit... no shit Sherlock...

Erdogan's stance? Erdogan has been a stupid sock puppet who got played, betrayed while turning his backyard on fire but was "wise" enough to at least realize the fact and fuck their "partner" as best they could given their position - as common sense priorities of statehood became clear for the clown. Mainly that stability and trade with neighbors is KING.

As for the rest of your post, like I said there are costs - and many more I could elaborate as add-ons from some that you listed - none are anywhere near mortal or too high a price. Those costs pale in comparison to having an American puppet state at the heart of Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran. But the debate is childish and stupid beyond belief.... they're not getting a state under any plausible circumstance today period for they depend on 3-4 states to willingly giving up land to some corrupt nobodies calling themselves leaders of the Kurds and trading with them. The more time passes, the less likely they're gonna get ANYTHING. Their golden chance, was fools gold, and the Americans understood that perfectly. The mere fact they seek independence using the U.S as hammer is enough to crater their whole PR efforts....lol GOOD LUCK for their fanboys tho...they can keep drinking that koolaid. But there is still hope for them.... there is never a shortage of hope for these movements.... like dreaming of a collapsing Turkish State too weak to put up a fight. In that sense, resistance and U.S efforts to help the Turkish economy collapse provide that wonderful hope.... me says fools gold AGAIN. It escapes no one that the U.S is dreaming of playing the long-game by establishing in North-Eastern Syria what Iraq has today in the North. It's short of their ambition, but still a "dormant" threat and most importantly, progress.

May the smartest succeed.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

EU cares about people?! like in Serbia? or Donetsk? no they care about own interests. I mean mostly French-German. If Erdo lets millions immigrants go then ECB wont be so hard to soften requirements.

If Erdo releases millions of refugees you will see the EU parliament call emergency sessions.  All they have to do is not let them in.  There will be just as many Turks trying to get in if not more.

Easier would be get Isreali citizenship as for most oligarchs. DErpiaska also sole anything? And what about Switzerland or London where many of Russian oligarchs feel as at home?

Russia has little sway in Switzerland or London.  When the Cypriots are in trouble they call on us for arms as they are under embargo.  Deripaska became a Cypriot citizen. Both of their fortunes were hit by the sanctions but it was because the value of their companies collapsed, not because they were frozen from their money.

ATLASCUB wrote:
Ehh...it's obvious what the cost of saying Yes to the referendum entails...how is this in any way contrarian to what I said? Or are you simply narrowing this reason as the sole and only reason of this strategic decision? Lol please... if there was anyone they wanted to please it was the Iraqi's...the Turks as a sidepiece.

The cost was great when they cared about what Turkey wanted. It isn't so great when no one cares about Turkey.

And yes this is obvious since what follows by recognizing a referendum is the cratering of relations not only with Iraq but also Turkey but it wasn't the only reason but part of a collection of reasons. The summary is that it was bound to failure with or without their support at too high a cost for the Americans. American relations with both states are in the shit today for that matter... for the leadership of both states know American designs - barring corrupt assets inside both governments (aka traitors) who could care less. In Iraq they live through carrot and stick - a well woven scheme of economic blackmail predatory on a weak state destroyed by invasion, civil war, and terrorist caliphates. In Turkey they're fucked but employ the same weapons wherever they can. If they wanted to mend relations with Turkey they could've pulled out of Nothern Syria, at the very least abandon the YPG like the Turks have offered.....but they won't and made that decision consciously.

American relations with Turkey are poor because Erdogan wants them that way for political reasons. He is using them as a scapegoat for his mismanagement of the economy. To think that Iraq could challenge the Peshmerga when their security forces collapsed without a fight to Daesch is laughable. It was the Kurds that defeated them and they could just as easily wipe out Iraqi forces if they tried to invade after a referendum.

The Iraqi army is both useless and worthless...

The Iraqi parliament is carrot and stick, the US dangles the carrot.

If the Americans could of forced it on Iraq or Turkey they would have done so just like they're parking in Eastern Syria today arming the PKK (ehm YPG) to the teeth...but the current arrangement only survives because while the shenanigans from the U.S and the Kurds are dangerous for the states involved, all the players have realized what I said in the above post... the Kurds have no current path for statehood as things stand. Were the variables change in any significant way, the parties will react proportionally to make the equation continue to stay the same.

Turkey has not left NATO yet, they won't push it until they do. Wait a few months when they hit hyperinflation after they run out of FX reserves. If they don't get a bailout you are going to see them turn into Venezuela. They will blame it all on America and they will storm Incirilik demanding them to leave maybe even taking hostages. Turkey will have an arms embargo placed on it and then the Americans will then begin to start a Kurdish insurgency who will reclaim Incirilik as the TuAF sits grounded from lack of spares and its soldiers get paid in toilet paper. The Turkish military will be about as effective as Iraq at that point. They can beg for Russian weapons but without anything to barter like oil for it, there is nothing we will give them out of kindness. This is the moment Kurds in Syria and Iraq get US support for a referendum and will carve up all three countries to form a new Kurdish state. Iranian Kurds will just have to wait until the new Kurdish state becomes powerful enough to take on Iran for those lost territories. The US and Israel will back them the entire way.

BTW this is a group whose sole existence is based on the idea of separatism (despite whatever denials or propaganda PKK fanboys like to put out) ....and Americans have aided them from the very beginning of this conflict in spite of the Turks. The Americans have not caved on anything.......it has been the Turks who have imposed their will (OP Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and what they're doing in Iraq today). But anyone that has followed the events and isn't on some mushroom crack knows this. The puppet (Turks) didn't act like a puppet after said puppet realized he was getting fucked six ways from Sunday and was gonna get ripped apart with a chainsaw. Ohh jeezz our relations are suddenly in the shit... no shit Sherlock...

The US is all for separatism if they can't get rid of Assad, which they can't thanks to our assistance. They have already drawn the partition line at the Euphrates. The US didn't want the Turks in Syria, the YPG was well strong enough to get those areas under control. Now US and French special forces in Manbij are staring at Turkish troops down the barrel of a gun. The US doesn't support any of the Turkish actions against the Kurds outside of their borders, the Turks know what the US is doing for the Kurds and where this is leading which is why they moved into Afrin. They aren't there to stop Daesch, they are there to occupy the Kurds.

As for the rest of your post, like I said there are costs - and many more I could elaborate as add-ons from some that you listed - none are anywhere near mortal or too high a price. Those costs pale in comparison to having an American puppet state at the heart of Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran. But the debate is childish and stupid beyond belief.... they're not getting a state under any plausible circumstance today period for they depend on 3-4 states to willingly giving up land to some corrupt nobodies calling themselves leaders of the Kurds and trading with them. The more time passes, the less likely they're gonna get ANYTHING. Their golden chance, was fools gold, and the Americans understood that perfectly. The mere fact they seek independence using the U.S as hammer is enough to crater their whole PR efforts....lol GOOD LUCK for their fanboys tho...they can keep drinking that koolaid. But there is still hope for them.... there is never a shortage of hope for these movements.... like dreaming of a collapsing Turkish State too weak to put up a fight. In that sense, resistance and U.S efforts to help the Turkish economy collapse provide that wonderful hope.... me says fools gold AGAIN. It escapes no one that the U.S is dreaming of playing the long-game by establishing in North-Eastern Syria what Iraq has today in the North. It's short of their ambition, but still a "dormant" threat and most importantly, progress.

As I said before, the Kurdish regions set for partition in Syria and Iraq are already made and under US control. The SAA tried to cross that line and with many Russians lost their lives. The Turks came up to that line and are sitting still to this day. The Iraqis are incapable of crossing that line and they know it. Iran is not in the cards for partition. Turkey depends on how they act, will they kick out the Americans and NATO? If that happens then the Americans will draw up plans for the partition of Turkey as well.

May the smartest succeed.

If you think Erdogan is the smartest with his economic theory of lower interest rates meaning less inflation I doubt he will.

Vladimir79 wrote:

If Erdo releases millions of refugees you will see the EU parliament call emergency sessions.  All they have to do is not let them in.  There will be just as many Turks trying to get in if not more.

the wont otherwise they did it already for years. Wtih those millions of Turks escaping is a bit exaggeration to me. look at Russia in 90s or Iran since 80s so whereare these millions? from Russia is 7-8 millions? 5% of population with far worse conditions?

Russia has little sway in Switzerland or London.  When the Cypriots are in trouble they call on us for arms as they are under embargo.  Deripaska became a Cypriot citizen.  Both of their fortunes were hit by the sanctions but it was because the value of their companies collapsed, not because they were frozen from their money.

media stated otherwise but perhaps you heard update and i wont argue. As for Cyprus if they have to choose US order or to freeze Russian money really Russia is going to intervene militarily?

Vladimir79 wrote:
The cost was great when they cared about what Turkey wanted.  It isn't so great when no one cares about Turkey.

This statement literally makes no sense. If you could be more specific as to what caring then and not caring now is actually all about?

But here is an easy rhetorical to the nonsense: If the U.S no longer cares about what Turkey wants, as it did “then” (undefined per your comment), how come the Kurds aren’t holding another referendum right now? Easy to deconstruct rubbish.

Why don’t you enlighten us on what happened when the Kurds held their referendum? I remember Kirkuk and the deals...so quick. All that chest-bumping tho...

Now if you want we can draw scenarios using what happened not too long ago as reference and add potential U.S moves IF IT had approved and recognize it. And then we can also add the moves of Turkey/Iraq/Syria/Iran + Russia to render it worthless. So many pieces and moves to play and make.

American relations with Turkey are poor because Erdogan wants them that way for political reasons.  He is using them as a scapegoat for his mismanagement of the economy.  To think that Iraq could challenge the Peshmerga when their security forces collapsed without a fight to Daesch is laughable.  It was the Kurds that defeated them and they could just as easily wipe out Iraqi forces if they tried to invade after a referendum.

I think you need to study the issues more and stop fixating on Erdogan. Turkey is not a monolith society. The divergence and clash of interest between the U.S and Turkey is not a personal game of chicken.

As for the fairy tale of the Peshmerga defeating the Iraqui army + PMU….again what happened after the referendum? Then you can also add to that what an embargo would look like, plus aid from Syria, Iran, Turkey and Russia (all spheres, military, intelligence, economic, diplomatic). That’s without mentioning the options of Turkey and Iran getting into the fray from their respective borders. Please…. The U.S gonna engage potentially with all 3 states from their base in Qatar...   Sanctions and some strikes can only get you so far.

And the idea that Iran is not gonna get involved because it doesn't directly affect them in the literal sense of losing lands (for now)....what childish assessment is that? They know what's coming for them....they'll get involved as the situation requires.

The Iraqi army is both useless and worthless

I would say the Kurds are worse by a fair margin.

The Iraqi parliament is carrot and stick, the US dangles the carrot.  

The carrot is allowing Iraq to freely trade its oil in the international market and no financial sanctions on its trade. That’s the only thing that really matters. Its a blackmail carrot.

Turkey has not left NATO yet, they won't push it until they do. Wait a few months when they hit hyperinflation after they run out of FX reserves.  If they don't get a bailout you are going to see them turn into Venezuela.  They will blame it all on America and they will storm Incirilik demanding them to leave maybe even taking hostages.  Turkey will have an arms embargo placed on it and then the Americans will then begin to start a Kurdish insurgency who will reclaim Incirilik as the TuAF sits grounded from lack of spares and its soldiers get paid in toilet paper.  The Turkish military will be about as effective as Iraq at that point.  They can beg for Russian weapons but without anything to barter like oil for it, there is nothing we will give them out of kindness.  This is the moment Kurds in Syria and Iraq get US support for a referendum and will carve up all three countries to form a new Kurdish state.  Iranian Kurds will just have to wait until the new Kurdish state becomes powerful enough to take on Iran for those lost territories.  The US and Israel will back them the entire way.  

Turkey will not leave NATO because Turkey is not stupid – news at 11. They need Europe too much and unfortunately for them, Europe in many respects does what their master says when financial sanctions are in play. The Turks will buy for time as they got caught with their pants down. They need to get their house in order before potentially becoming parts of BRICS and diversifying their economic ties and allies.

We will have to wait and see how the Turkish economic dilemma unfolds before jumping the gun on predictions. As for blaming Americans, well they should do so after blaming themselves for being stupid…not so much for engaging in expansionary monetary policy (who doesn’t) as much as getting into the Syrian quagmire in a misguided ploy…. You don’t set your backyard on fire. Now they’re catching Fire.

As for the fairy tales of the Kurds marching on Istanbul/Incirilick and what not… I say the Kurds and what army? Somehow a rat tag group militia man that lacks everything a proper army needs is going to stop 3 states at once and fuck the strongest of them all…somehow with the Americans supplying them from heaven all sorts of miracle weapons, money, food and personal. If you told me the U.S would be willing to invade Turkey and Iraq in an intervention I might consider some degree of success but the odds are still against the Kurds even in that scenario. Not to mention it would be catastrophic for the Americans...

Maybe the Kurds can marry the Americans…hold the ceremony in the Vatican…so that it becomes personal for the Americans to come to the aid of their wife? An unholy marriage, capitalist and crazy commies...in gods house.

The US is all for separatism if they can't get rid of Assad, which they can't thanks to our assistance.  They have already drawn the partition line at the Euphrates.  The US didn't want the Turks in Syria, the YPG was well strong enough to get those areas under control.  Now US and French special forces in Manbij are staring at Turkish troops down the barrel of a gun.  The US doesn't support any of the Turkish actions against the Kurds outside of their borders, the Turks know what the US is doing for the Kurds and where this is leading which is why they moved into Afrin.  They aren't there to stop Daesch, they are there to occupy the Kurds.  

Well yes I agree on all points. The Turks are in Afrin to, among many things, stop the Kurds from potentially running to the Sea. As long as they’re boxed and can’t be resupplied by sea, the Kurds are fucked.

Push comes to shove, the Turks can drive the Americans out…. for a price. American assets there are defenseless. Token bombardment on Turkish troops etc wouldn’t change that if things got hot. They’ll pack their bags and go back to their tried toolbox…coups and economic sabotage. But the Turks can try many things before it even gets hot… they got lots of terrorist to play with. I am sure the M.I.T has a solid toolbox before getting hot as precursor... targeted assassinations, IEDs…a bit of harassment to send the message and create a new normal.

As I said before, the Kurdish regions set for partition in Syria and Iraq are already made and under US control.  The SAA tried to cross that line and with many Russians lost their lives.  The Turks came up to that line and are sitting still to this day.  The Iraqis are incapable of crossing that line and they know it.  Iran is not in the cards for partition.  Turkey depends on how they act, will they kick out the Americans and NATO?  If that happens then the Americans will draw up plans for the partition of Turkey as well.  

Now lets not be misleading as to which Russians crossed the line. The Turks need to play their cards right, they already made the mistake of getting onboard the Syrian quagmire - which opened an immense can of worms for them. You seem to suggest they should prematurely commit more mistakes without thinking it through. Syrians are doing the same - Idlib first. And please don't mention the Frenchies...they're cannon fodder. They'll get on a plane as fast their legs can carry them.

Now if we consider that the Kurds:

1. Got no way to the sea.

2. Got no referendum.

3. Are solely dependent on U.S patronage for their survival.

4. Have enemies everywhere they look.

5. The Turks are free to bomb them in Iraq.

6. In Syria the Turks already fucked up their ideal plan and the Kurds are well within the crosshairs of everyone.

7. The Kurds are outgunned, outmanned, weaker than all the players involved and overstreched in some areas while boxed in others...

Hanging by a thread there... an American thread...made in China.

If I’m the Turks with my plate full, for now what I need is time to see how things develop and prepare for any eventuality.

If you think Erdogan is the smartest with his economic theory of lower interest rates meaning less inflation I doubt he will.  

You’re fixated on Erdogan, which might explain why you look so favorable on the crazy commies known as the PKK and whatever the Northern clan of Iraq preaches...a lot of corruption I can tell you that...

When I say may the smartest succeed I mean all the players involved in the chessboard. It’s not just Turkey that wants the Kurd movement to be crushed to irrelevance… Iran does, Iraq does, Syria does….and believe it not, as neutral as Russia may seem, despite whatever ties these crazies had with the USSR…. The Russians of today don’t give a shit about the Kurds. To the contrary, they’ve been a roadblock to solving the Syrian Civil War, a source of tension with its biggest rival, a destabilizing force in the region and a potential strategic threat if they gain statehood.

On the other side is obviously the fanatics, and some corrupt Kurds, the U.S, Israel, the Gulf, and some EU states…

May the smartest succeed.

ATLASCUB wrote:

This statement literally makes no sense. If you could be more specific as to what caring then and not caring now is actually all about?

When Turkey turns into the next failed state no one will care what Turkey's foreign policy is. Reformulate you argument based on that as that is the basis of my scenario.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

George1 wrote:
Greece do not posses any part of Cyprus

not even in ancient Greece?

Greekcypriots' ancestors are ancient Greeks (Mycenaean Greeks) that settled to Cyprus for looking for copper at (1400–1050 BC). . Αncient Greek monuments (theaters for example) are scattered throughout all Cyprus

https://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2018/08/28/top-russian-defense-boss-proposes-joint-jet-production-with-turkey

Looks like russians want to replace the turkissh f-35 project by a joint russian-turkish project.

Isos wrote:https://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2018/08/28/top-russian-defense-boss-proposes-joint-jet-production-with-turkey

Looks like russians want to replace the turkissh f-35 project by a joint russian-turkish project.

It would be nice but reality is Turkey has no money for such things. Once they run out of FX reserves they will fall behind on their oil and gas bills.

Vladimir79 wrote:

Isos wrote:https://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2018/08/28/top-russian-defense-boss-proposes-joint-jet-production-with-turkey

Looks like russians want to replace the turkissh f-35 project by a joint russian-turkish project.

It would be nice but reality is Turkey has no money for such things.  Once they run out of FX reserves they will fall behind on their oil and gas bills.

Emirats signed something about a mig 5th gen fighter with russia. They could end up doing something all 3 togather.

If they fall they might see terorism develop even more and get closer to EU. It's not in the interest of any country to support kurds over turkey. Kurdistan doesn't exist and even if it exists it will never be stable, no matter how US or israeli support it.

Nato can't replace turkey with a closed country like kurdistan. They would lose access to the black sea, lose incirlik (that can be even destroyed by turks to prevent what you said about kurds taking it) and lose a market of 70 million people. In terms of human rights, erdogan brings, just like putin in russia, some democracy to a country hard to rule, that could become another Saoudi arabia.


In my opinion, Obama did the coup attempt. Erdogan got angry against USA. Trump came in power and told him "I don't care about who rules turkey, let's forget that and keep doing buisness". Erdogan don't trust US anymore and  kept the US guy to not show any weakness concerning the failed coup. Trump got angry. And now sanctions. Once everyone calm down, turkish economy should stabilize.

Isos wrote:

Emirats signed something about a mig 5th gen fighter with russia. They could end up doing something all 3 togather.

If they fall they might see terorism develop even more and get closer to EU. It's not in the interest of any country to support kurds over turkey. Kurdistan doesn't exist and even if it exists it will never be stable, no matter how US or israeli support it.

Nato can't replace turkey with a closed country like kurdistan. They would lose access to the black sea, lose incirlik (that can be even destroyed by turks to prevent what you said about kurds taking it) and lose a market of 70 million people. In terms of human rights, erdogan brings, just like putin in russia, some democracy to a country hard to rule, that could become another Saoudi arabia.


In my opinion, Obama did the coup attempt. Erdogan got angry against USA. Trump came in power and told him "I don't care about who rules turkey, let's forget that and keep doing buisness". Erdogan don't trust US anymore and  kept the US guy to not show any weakness concerning the failed coup. Trump got angry. And now sanctions. Once everyone calm down, turkish economy should stabilize.

The Turks supported the Chechens during their separatist movements, they support the separatist terrorists in Syria. We support PKK because it destabilises Turkey because they are the enemy. We can lure them in with false d'etente if they are stupid enough to fall for it but once they leave NATO let them descend into chaos. As the country faces uprisings the Kurds will revolt and that is the time the partition of Turkey will begin. Hopefully they will call in Russian peacekeepers to maintain order, then we can turn around and take what we have wanted for centuries.

It is pretty clear Erdogan began the coup himself when he started forcing officers that saved him to resign. It was a move to consolidate his power as Supreme Leader and it worked. Now they have a dictator who is driving their economy into the ground and blaming everyone but himself for his own failures. If Erdogan turns 180 to see the light he might be able to save himself, but his salvation isn't with Russia. If you haven't noticed we haven't pledged a dime and we never will.

Vladimir79 wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:

This statement literally makes no sense. If you could be more specific as to what caring then and not caring now is actually all about?

When Turkey turns into the next failed state no one will care what Turkey's foreign policy is. Reformulate you argument based on that as that is the basis of my scenario.

People use the word failed state too freely and it's unambiguous by default. What I can appreciate from all your argumentation thus far is that you're hard on the koolaid of Turkish incoming "complete and total collapse". Then all dreams will come true..... for the Kurds will have their state and retaking Constantinople will finally come true..... I guess the best I can do is leave you to your opinions and dreams.

ATLASCUB wrote:

People use the word failed state too freely and it's unambiguous by default.

Defaults are what the Turks are becoming best at...  Turk-Telekom, Hotic, Derindere and BIS Enerji all defaulted on bonds this week.

Vladimir79 wrote:

The Turks supported the Chechens during their separatist movements, they support the separatist terrorists in Syria. We support PKK because it destabilises Turkey because they are the enemy.  We can lure them in with false d'etente if they are stupid enough to fall for it but once they leave NATO let them descend into chaos.  As the country faces uprisings the Kurds will revolt and that is the time the partition of Turkey will begin.  Hopefully they will call in Russian peacekeepers to maintain order, then we can turn around and take what we have wanted for centuries.

Russian peacekeepers in Turkey this is a pure fantasy mate. Turks supported Chechen islamists because Russia was on verge of  existence. They're nto gonna do anything like this when a country is strong. In politics there are no feelings but only interests. Unstable Turkey i unlikely in Russia's interest. PKK has support so what precisely its gets from Russia and what PKK is doing for  Russia with USin Kurdistan? this is for Russia no one problem there now.  

It is pretty clear Erdogan began the coup himself when he started forcing officers that saved him to resign.  It was a move to consolidate his power as Supreme Leader and it worked.  Now they have a dictator who is driving their economy into the ground and blaming everyone but himself for his own failures.  If Erdogan turns 180 to see the light he might be able to save himself, but his salvation isn't with Russia.  If you haven't noticed we haven't pledged a dime and we never will.    

if Erdogan prepared coup himself then sudden rapprochement with Russia would be not grounded in anything.  His grudge with US neither.  As for economy Russia doesnt need to help with money, pledging in solution political issues for countries which own Turkey's loans can do miracles.


Russia did pledge couple of billions as credits for nuclear power plants and S-400      

I see it as a tipping point... if Russia and China and Iran and Qatar and other countries can help Turkey survive with some dignity in leaving Americas sphere of influence, then in the long term that is good for everyone outside the sphere of US influence...

Turkey has historically been an enemy of Russia... so has Germany, and Japan and Pakistan... and right now things are different... it is not about communism any more..., someone might seize power and stab you in the back but I think it is worth a try.

Russia has no interests for a Kurdish state in Syria, it would be more useful for Assad to have total control of the entire country...