Iran's military reaction against USA - Israel in M.East

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-thinks-an-israeli-attack-on-iran-by-the-summer-is-almost-certain-2012-4

Informed sources say that the Russians have warned of "unpredictable consequences" in the event Iran is attacked, with some Russians saying that the Russian military will take part in the possible war because it would threaten its vital interests in the region.

The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper has quoted a Russian military source as saying that the situation forming around Syria and Iran "causes Russia to expedite the course of improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian, Mediterranean and Black Sea regions."


http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/5256

Large scale “strategic” military exercises Kavkaz-2012 are planned for next September, but it is reported that preparations and deployments of assets have begun already because of the threat of the possible war with Iran. New command and control equipment has been deployed in the region capable of using GLONASS (Russian GPS) targeting information. The air force in the South Military District (SMD) is reported to have been rearmed “almost 100 percent” with new jets and helicopters.

Very interesting. Whole region around could erupt in flames if attack on Iran goes throw and Russia wants to ensure its part.

With no Su-35s or PAKFAs in inventory right now, why would Russia risk fighting with US and/or Israel. However, regime change in Georgia is very much needed for strategic goals and keeping Azerberjian under similar control is very important.

Was there not a rule that NATO cannot deploy its ships in the Black Sea.

War against Iran means war against Syria and that means in one blow, Russia loses two friendly governments. This cannot be allowed to happen, now or in the future.

Afterall a strike on Iran would erupt that region into one big fiesta, worse than Zenit fans vs Spartak So why not make it a 3 way?
We all no no caspian nation is going to fight each other again or invade each other. So if Russia is amassing troops and re arming which seems to be confirmed by many reports then we will all get a look at Russias regional goal.

With the case of Iran and the US. Russia should just rush deliveries of SAM systems to Iran. After all doesnt the US disdain the fact of an attack on Iran saying it will be a "faliure" and have "catastrophic" consequences. These should keep both Irael and the US in check and keep peace in the Region. Whats the worst that could happen?They would use their globalist media and "juwspapers" to make russia look shvtty?They are already doing this.....They are not going to give gerogia shvt either. They would threaten no cooperation on missile shield? We already know its not going to happen? What would russia get in return? The most powerful mutual middle east ally, a very lucrative arms market just over the caspian= better for russian economy.

Russian radar in Armenia to block an US/Israeli strike on Iran from the north

http://www.debka.com/article/21901/

Debka is an Israeli news agency and usually its news should be taken with only 50% creditibility.

Another thing they would do is probably pull out foreign investors so they can crash the russian economy. Russia doesn't have any stabaliztion funds left, but if the strike on Iran does occur and oil exports are hampered, the oil prices will rise which may ofset the the shock. But if Saudi arabia compensates which I doubt the oil prices will droped. Last time Russia and georgia the oil prices went really low . So russia will just have to lock down their stock market and freeze financial transactions to prevent the parasites from leaving with their money

"Debka" and "credibility" can not be used in the same sentence.

gloriousfatherland wrote:Another thing they would do is probably pull out foreign investors so they can crash the russian economy. Russia doesn't have any stabaliztion funds left, but if the strike on Iran does occur and oil exports are hampered, the oil prices will rise which may ofset the the shock. But if Saudi arabia compensates which I doubt the oil prices will droped. Last time Russia and georgia the oil prices went really low . So russia will just have to lock down their stock market and freeze financial transactions to prevent the parasites from leaving with their money

Check again under "Reserve Fund" and "National Welfare Fund". Together they have well over 100 billion $$ in them.
And we are not talking yet of foreign currency and gold reserves.

Currently, Russia is financialy in much better shape than any Western country.

Financially Russia is in fine shape.

Any war of US with Iran will increase the oil prices for sure.

Better yet, if Iranian missiles are able to reach the oil refineries of UAR, Saudi, Qatar etc. then oil prices will go further up and remain there. Hormuz open or close does not matter then.

Russia should help Iran via intelligence etc. to help it crash the oil production of the US puppet states mentioned above.

victor7 wrote:Russian radar in Armenia to block an US/Israeli strike on Iran from the north

http://www.debka.com/article/21901/

Debka is an Israeli news agency and usually its news should be taken with only 50% creditibility.

What will a radar do? It doesn't exist at the moment and would take a while to construct within the proposed preiod for the attack.Also my firends what can Iran do if it gathers intelligence on the enemy squadrons? I even doubt the early detection as the tangos will be flying below enemy radar.An attack on IRan wouldn't also just occur from the north, it will be really coordianted and from all directions. They would probably have to concentrate their airfoce on protecting terahan and Natanz

Russia cannot and should not allow Georgia/Azerberzian to be used for any attacks on Iran. It should secretly let it be known to Tblisi that any such hosting can result in extreme and devastating response from Moscow.

Regime change in Iran will open the doors for US creating problems in Russia's southern regions. This is the main motive of the US planning.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta had reported last December itself that the geopolitical situation unfolding around Syria and Iran is prompting Russia to make its military structures in the South Caucasus, on the Caspian, Mediterranean and Black Sea regions more efficient. Kremlin has been informed about an upcoming US-supported Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The strike will be sudden and take place on “day X” in the near future. One could assume Iran’s reaction will not be delayed. A full-scale war is possible, and its consequences could be unpredictable.

Last November, Russia’s envoy to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, relayed a message from the Kremlin, saying that an Israeli or US strike on Iran will lead to “a catastrophic development of events.” Chizhov stressed that the negative consequences will not only be felt by the region, “but also in a much broader context.” Russia’s direct diplomatic pressure on Europe and the global community in respect to issues concerning a possible war in Iran began recently after the IAEA’s publication of a report on the Iranian nuclear program in November.

However, in the military sphere, Russia’s preparations for minimization of losses from possible military action against Tehran began more than two years ago. The 102nd military base in Armenia was fully optimized in October-November 2011. Military personnel’s families have been evacuated to Russia, and the Russian garrison deployed near Yerevan reduced. Military sub-units stationed in the area have been transferred to Gyumri district, closer to the Turkish border. Strikes against Iranian facilities by US troops are possible from Turkish territory. So far, it is unclear as to what tasks the 102nd military base will perform in relation to this. But it is known that Russian troops stationed at military bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, have been on high alert since December 1 last year. Meanwhile, ships of the Black Sea Fleet are located not far from the Georgian border which in this conflict could act on the side of the anti-Iranian forces.

In Izberbash, Dagestan, nearly adjacent to the Azerbaijani border, a coastal guided missile battalion equipped with onshore anti-ship Bal-E missile systems with a range of 130 km, have been put on permanent combat readiness status. All guided missile craft of the Caspian Flotilla have been redeployed from Astrakhan to Makhachkala and Kaspiysk districts to form a single group. Meanwhile, the flagship of the Flotilla, the sentry rocket ship “Tatarstan”, will soon be joined by the small gunboat "Volgodonsk” and missile ship “Dagestan”. The flagships of the Flotilla are equipped with missile systems with a range of up to 200 km.

Recently, the Northern Fleet’s aircraft carrier group with the heavy aircraft carrier “Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Kuznetsov”, headed towards the Mediterranean with plans to ultimately enter the Syrian port of Tartus. They are most likely being accompanied by nuclear submarines.

Russia’s Defense Ministry is apparently concerned about the logistical support of troops in Armenia. The 102nd military base is a key point as it is Russia’s outpost in the South Caucasus. It holds a very important geopolitical position. But Kremlin officials are worried that this position will be lost. In the event of a US-Israeli war against Iran, this will indeed be tragic for Russia.

In April,2011, Georgia broke the agreement on the transit of military cargo to Armenia from Russia. Essentially, the Russian-Armenian grouping in the South Caucasus has been isolated. Supplies to the Russian army (POL, food, etc.) are delivered only by air and through direct agreements with Armenia which, in turn, purchases these products (gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene) from Iran. A war in Iran will close this supply channel.

Lt.-Gen. Yury Netkachev, who for a long time served as the deputy commander of the Group of Russian Forces in the Transcaucasus and was personally engaged in work on the supply of arms and ammunition to combined armed forces and units (including the 102nd military base), believes that, in the event of a full-fledged war against Iran, Russia will be looking to securely supply the military facility through Georgia. Perhaps, it will be necessary to break the Georgian transport blockade and supply the transport corridors leading to Armenia by military means.

Apparently, Russia’s Defense Ministry is also quite wary of Azerbaijan, which over the last three years has doubled its military budget and is currently buying Israeli drones and other advanced means of reconnaissance and topographic location, naturally aggravating Tehran and Armenia.Baku has stepped up its pressure on Moscow, demanding significantly higher rental fees for the Gabala radar station. But even considering the disputes between Iran and Azerbaijan over oilfields in the south of the Caspian Sea, one could hardly argue that Baku will support an anti-Iranian military campaign. It is also very unlikely that it will unleash hostilities against Armenia.

The negotiation process on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict has been unreasonably delayed. Baku is making open statements on revenge. Azerbaijan pre-emptive strikes on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, made in order to finally settle the territorial dispute in its favor, are possible. The question of how Russia will behave is important.

If in the midst of a war in Iran, Azerbaijan supported by Turkey, attacks Armenia, then, of course, all of the adversary’s attacks against Armenia will be repelled by Russia in conjunction with Armenian anti-missile defense forces. It’s hard to say whether or not this will be considered as Moscow’s involvement in military action. Russian troops will certainly not be engaged in military action on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. But in the event of a military threat to Armenia coming from Turkey or Azerbaijan, for example, Russia will in all likelihood take part in ground operations.

It is possible that initial attack on Iran will be only on its nuclear sites. If like Iraq in 1980s, Iran just bites the bullet and does not retaliate then it might be a short deal which is over in 2-3 days.

If Iran retaliates by attack nations around including Israel and uses all weapons in its arsenal, then it can be a big regional thing that can get Russia involved also.

Russia has a trump card in the form of NDN supply network to NATO troops in Afghanistan. It can shut it down and reverse the tables for the US in already hostile theater.

victor7 wrote:It is possible that initial attack on Iran will be only on its nuclear sites. If like Iraq in 1980s, Iran just bites the bullet and does not retaliate then it might be a short deal which is over in 2-3 days.

If Iran retaliates by attack nations around including Israel and uses all weapons in its arsenal, then it can be a big regional thing that can get Russia involved also.

Russia has a trump card in the form of NDN supply network to NATO troops in Afghanistan. It can shut it down and reverse the tables for the US in already hostile theater.

I think if a Israeli- NATO strike occurs against Iran and they attack not only the civillian nuclear facilities but also the industries in IRAN to the extent of Iraq with "shock and awe" which is highly possible , Iranian leadership will go all out on American bases in Afghanistan and Kuwait with ballistic missile strikes and they should bomb the hell out of Israeli facilities in Negev for Israeli callousness. Its even possible they may do ground attack on American bases in afghanistan such as bagrahm and strike the 120,000 populated US embassy In Iraq as their means of response, whilst saving the ballistic missiles for Strikes on US assets in the Persion gulf, bases in Baharian, Israel and Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

I think that only good chance or retaliation Iran has in the initial phases of the attack like one to three days. Beyond that, US will rapidly degrade their SAMs and other measures including the missiles. Iran cannot afford a ground invasion into US interests in Iraq or Afghan. They will have their ground troops exposed to annihilation from the air.

Iran can however go for the insurgency and covert terrorism type campaign. However, if they have not yet prepared for such methods then doing so at the time of attack would be not much worthwhile. Iran however has to also throw some really devastating double armed blows to the US puppets like Saudi and UAE and others.

Last major punch US got was in Vietnam. However, it was mostly due to politicians ruling over the military and causing them to give up the gained ground etc. i.e. US fought with one hand tied behind the back.

Better bets for US are to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and call it quits. If they go for the regime change then it will be some 10x the work and even Russia will get involved and then we are talking about storing few tons of canned food in the basement and pray for peace to soon descend on the human race.

Btw, Debka at it again..............this time on Syria

US weighs limited military action against Assad. Turkey may join

http://www.debka.com/article/21909/

Playing with the language of resolution again, like in Libya. That is why Russia should just refuse to hear any sweet talk on BMDs in Europe. Cannot trust those who play with the language of the treaty........because they have more power.

Sources in Ankara reminded local and Arab media of the existence of the mutual defense cooperation pact known as the “Adana agreement” which Turkey and Syria concluded in 1998.

Article 1 states that "Syria, on the basis of the principle of reciprocity, will not permit any activity that emanates from its territory aimed at jeopardizing the security and stability of Turkey."
Under this article, Ankara feels Turkish military intervention in Syria is legitimate. This reminder was offered the media, our military sources confirm, to provide the legal grounding for a potential Turkish military move across its border into Syria.

Debka...

I have said previously the US led coalition in Afghanistan rely on aircraft... especially helos as they avoid ambushes and IED and mines... it would not take much investment for the Iranians to give ATGMs and MANPADS to the Taleban forces in Afghanistan... we are not talking Kornet-EM and Igla-S systems, we are upgraded models of TOW and latish model man portable SAMs similar to Igla.

These are the only or few measures Iranians can take to put some dent on the US interests in the region. Other measures like missile attacks on any and all US and allies interests might work if carried out in numbers and in early 1-3 days of the attacks. They may also try to play some asymmetric stuff with US Navy in the Gulf and might touch a ship or two by luck or suicidal endevours.

Beyond that, common terrorism and underground ventures are only left to score some points on the battle game. If the attacks are carried out before US elections, then forget about the US Army involvement at all and that makes no sense anyways. It might come up as a long and boring bombing campaign and hopes for Iranian people to topple the regime somehow. If rebel factions and armies are propped up then expect some US backed arming and intelligence support and rest will be Libya all over again.

Iran has few options left.

1) In front of attack most Middle East countries will said attack on Iran will not come from their countries to save theirs countries from Iran retaliation on its oil facilities. By my opinion Iran should fire at them making oil prices do the damage.

2) As Garry pointed out, providing training, financing and arming (MANPAD/ATGM) to Taliban fighters in Afganistan

3) Destabilisation of nuclear armed Pakistan. Pakistan has huge potential for eruption in civil war. Under threat of nuclear armed Pakistan all eyes of the world would instantly turned from Iran to Pakistan.

4) Ballistic missiles on Israel (possible nuclear retaliation), and US bases in Afganistan witch are tightly packed making them ideal for mass casualties.

5)Dragging Iraq in civil war, Hesbollah attacks etc ... Egypt is at the moment on a crossroad and in future perhaps they could be ally witch can be exploited.

6) Iran has numbers in cruise and ballistic missile that can be exploited as previously mentioned to attack US interest all over the region.

etc ...

Viktor wrote:Iran has few options left.

3) Destabilisation of nuclear armed Pakistan. Pakistan has huge potential for eruption in civil war. Under threat of nuclear armed Pakistan all eyes of the world would instantly turned from Iran to Pakistan.

Destablization of Pak can turn to be a master stroke for Iran as it will immediate turn into a mess for US troops in Afhgan.

5)Dragging Iraq in civil war, Hesbollah attacks etc ... Egypt is at the moment on a crossroad and in future perhaps they could be ally witch can be exploited.

Forgot about Hizbullah, they will go into live action for sure on Iran's behalf. That would be the problem of Israel to handle. Egypt however might not do anything sensational as power is still with the Army and they are pretty clever to not take on hostility with US. Syria will go live also as it has mutual defense pact with Iran.


In one study, there is a prediction of stock markets to correct by upto 30% by the year's end. This means something major is brewing for the second half of the year. If US persists on regime change in Iran, then Russia will make a move and that can get really tough for the US to handle.

Yes I agree with Viktor.

The prices of petrol in the US are over $5USD per gallon even though they have opened up oil reserves. With raging oil prices, 30 million unemployed in the US and the high cost of living as utilities will also go up concurrently with oil prices, we will see a much deeper recession or a final default by the US governments. This in addition to attacks on the non-protected and saturated ISAF bases in Afghanistan and Targets in Baharain and Qatar will be much more beneficial to the degradation of US superiority in the Middile east. In response to an Israeli attack, as I mentioned before , payback on it's own nuclear plant in Negev would be suitable. Israel wouldn't dear to launch a nuclear strike on Iran due to political, economic, social and miltiary implications. The world would not tolerate it and the arabs will run wild. However Iran should traget military and industrial assests within Israel using missiles instead of civillian targets to limit their conventional defensive capability and damage their economy badly. Military targets should include their airbases. Destroying all those F-16's adn F-15's will take away from Israeli air superiority .This can then be capitalised on by Hamas and Hezbollah to lauch a ground incursion into Israel and obliterate their armored colums. The realities is that Hezbollahs rocket fires are uneffectve because only 20% of them land in the cities. They should use it against ground troops of the IDF instead. So in a nut shell this should be the effective Iranian response:

1. Use of SRBM (SCUD B and SCUD C) to take out US military installations in Iraq, Afghanistan and In persion due to close proximity and lack of AMD systems. Use of ASM in persian gulf against US navy assets.
2. Use of Fajr-3 against Isreal nuclear reactor(Negev not protected by Arrow), Seijl-2 against Hafia(covered by Arrow 2) to damage its industrial capability, Shahab-3 and Ghadr-110 strikes on following Airbase : 1. Ramat David(covered by arrow 2) 2.Ramon(no arrow 2 defence at Ramon)
3. Hezbollah incursion. Followed by Hezy grad fire on IDF
4. Hamas incursion with hamas rocket fire. Use of assets In Egypt to support Hamas operations against IDF. Iran could also station Revolitionary guards in Sianai as sleeper cells to cross over into Gaza once Iranian response commences to aid Hamas fighters. I'm sure this due to the current state of Egypt would be not that difficult. The IRGC would allow the smuggling and operation of C-802 AS missles against Israeli surface crafts in the Mediterrainian sea.)
5.Quds Force and assets in West Bank to cause uprising
(Note: The combined Response by Hamas , The West Bank, Hezbollah creates 3 fronts that would stretch the IDF ground forces and limit their effective capability. We must remember that Israel have to capability to mobalize 600,000 troops. So we can expect about 40 000 troops to respond to the Lebanon border to hezbollah incursion. But without air superiority due to the attack on Airbases in Hafia and Ramat David, they would be picked out. Hamas would also be able to effectively engage IDF troops and break the blockade.)
6. Missile Strikes on Tel Aviv
7. Israel realises the illegal nukes she possess was useless as they cant be used against Non-Nuclear state
8. Israel FIA
9. Radioactive fallout in Iran, Israel, middle east permanently messed up due to three big retards Israel, USA and Iran.Thousands dead on all sides. Global depression in non oilxporting nations.
10. Ceasefire. Russia simles, now controls the oil fields that are not radioacitve.
11.Middle east still a shvthole, everyone in the world suffers....

Two comments:

a) I doubt either Iran or Hizbullah will be able to take the air superiority away from Israel. Too tough as that is the bread and butter of Israel defense so it will be guarded well.

b) Personally I would like to see Iran without the nukes as it can be too dangerous for Russia's south. But do not want a regime change either as that would mean a US puppet government in Tehran......again that would be challenging scenario for Russian interests.

04 July, 2012, 19:55

Iran claims it has the capability to destroy US bases “within minutes” after concluding a massive military exercise in which it launched hundreds of missiles.

"[US] bases are all in range of our missiles, and the occupied lands [Israel] are also good targets for us," Amir Ali Haji Zadeh, commander of the elite Revolutionary Guard told the FARS news agency.

The three-day Great Prophet 7 training exercise wrapped up on Wednesday. It simulated rapidly releasing batteries of guided missiles and Iran-made drones at mock-ups of US bases.

Haji Zadesh claimed that 35 US bases are within the 2,000 km range of Iran’s rockets, although the actual number of bases within this area is closer to 10.

The aggressive rhetoric comes on the back of a spike in tension between Iran and the US, already locked in a long-running stand-off over Iran’s nuclear program. Washington and the EU believe it is aimed at producing nuclear weapons, while Tehran denies the accusations.

The United States has recently introduced an embargo on Iranian oil. Worldwide sanctions have reduced Iranian oil export volumes by 40 percent in the past year.

In response, earlier this week, Iranian deputies proposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of the world’s oil passes through the vital but narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf.

The US immediately upped its naval presence in the region to ward off Iran.

Meanwhile, on-going talks between the sides in Istanbul have so far failed to find a compromise on the Islamic Republic’s atomic program.

http://www.rt.com/news/iran-great-prophet-hormuz-us-bases-416/