State Armaments Program 2011-2020

Recent statements from Putin in 2013 indicates SAP funding has been revised , Now Airforce gets more fund 5 Trillion roubles and Navy gets 4 Trillion rouble , not sure why Airforce got priority but revised figure is as below

SAP 2020 Break Up of 23 trillion rubles

Army and Airborne Force - 2.6 trillion rubles [ $ 80.5 billion ]
Navy - 4 trillion rubles [ $123.5 billion ]
Airforce - 5 trillion rubles [ $165 Billion ]
Strategic Rocket Forces - 1 trillion rubles [ $ 30.8 billion ]
Air and Space Defence - 4 trillion rubles [$123.5 billion ]
Classified Program - 3.4 trillion rubles [ $100 billion ]

Total 20 trillion rubles [ $627 billion ]

MIC Program - 3 Trillion [ $ 92.6 billion ]

Total MIC/Defence Program - 23 Trillion Rubles [ $ 719 billion ]

They also mentioned MIC Program will get additional 3 trillion rouble from private funding , god knows how.

Austin, it would help if you provided links to material containing that information. I am trying to google the same combination of numbers and keyword but I can't find anything yet. Any help?

Anyway, I wonder what the 165 billion dollars for air force would be spent. What does that include? It won't be just purchase of material as one could easely buy over 2300 aircraft each worth an average of 70 million dollars (and just su34 cost less, su35 won't cost much more, helicopters cost easely half or third that amount etc). Missiles and simulators could also be bought it ridiculous numbers with such a figure, they can't be the culprits. Development programmes may run into several billion dollar territory, but even that can't cover such a figure. With some realistic course of developing new systems and buying them, none of that alone can account for the figure by 2020, or even 2025. So that number needs to cover a lot of things. which?

SAP 2020 is the Military Budget of Russian Armed Forces and not just Capital Expenditure for Russian Military hardware.

From what i recollect its 70:30 Ratio , 70 % of that money will be spent on Capital Expenditure which is new equipment buy and 30 % is for Salaries ,Maintenance, Upkeep , Social Welfare etc

I will try to get the link , I did this calculation some months back and i reposted it since the figures have changed now for Russian Airforce getting $ 1 trillion more compared to previous estimate and the navy loosing similar amount in the bargain , so balancing toward the airforce.

Some Links for you to support those calculations.

Navy 4 Trillion Roubles http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_01_10/4-trillion-rubles-to-be-assigned-for-Russian-Navy-modernization-Putin/

Airforce 5 Trillion Roubles http://www.ruaviation.com/news/2013/3/7/1561/

Land and Airborne Forces 2.6 Trillion Roubles http://lenta.ru/news/2012/07/03/trillion/

Secret Weapons 4 Trillion http://lenta.ru/news/2012/07/04/weapon/

SRF get 1 Trillion http://lenta.ru/news/2012/07/04/weapon/

The rest goes to ASD 3-4 Trillion Roubles

Simple

Thank you for the links. I am not sure about the 70:30 ratio, though. I haven't seen any statement confirming such a ratio. Usually ratios are reverse from that.

But anyway, just for fun, if one DOES get 70% of 165 billion dollars for new equipment - that would still be whopping 115 billion dollars. What could that get by 2020?
150 su35 for 100 million each. 15 billion.
50 pakfa for 150 million each. 7,5 billion.
150 su34 for 70 million each. 10,5 billion.
100 su30sm for 70 million each. 7 billion.
100 mig29k/mig35 for 70 million each. 7 billion.
50 su25sm3 for 40 million each. 2 billion.
150 yak130 for 20 million each. 3 billion.
80 il476 (transport and tanker) for 100 million each. 8 billion.
20 or so special mission elint, awacs etc planes. 300 million each? 6 billion.
50 or so various other light transport or utility planes - 1 billion?
67 billion total.
Plus modernization of remaining tu22m, mig31, su25, a50... 4-5 billion?

if one buys 400 attack choppers (30 million apiece?), 800 mi17 (15 million?), 300 lighter helos such as ansat and ka-62 (5-10 million?) that'd add another 27 or so billion dollars.

So we'are at perhaps some 100 billion dollars. There is still a lot of money to go around for weapons, simulators, etc. And we got some 1500 helicopters and 900 aeroplanes. Which is quite a bit more than the announced 2000 aircraft by 2020, even if all those 2000 will be newbuilds and not modernizations. Most of the plans for procurement by 2020 are known and it is not likely we would actually see the numbers i've fantasized about here. Plus the costs i used here will, no doubt, be called out by many as unrealistically high. In certain instances I've used costs higher than what some foreign customers paid for similar products. Domestic customer, the Russian armed forces, are bound to get them cheaper.

A more realistic figure for procurement alone would seem to have to be based on at least 25% less aircraft and at least 25% lesser prices. It seems to be a more realistic procurement total would be some 50-55 billion dollars. That is, like we could see from the list above, still a HUGE amount of money which is still sort of unreachable with currently planned production by 2020, unles further contracts will be put into action and fulfilled by then. 50-55 billion sort of is around 30 or so percent of the total figure marked for air force.

None of this is supported by anything other than speculation, of course. I too, like many others, would much rather have solid official sources and figures, instead of having to guess.

Putin said for VVS by 2020 it will be 2000 Aircraft and Helicopter with 5 trillion roubles.

The number of helicopter is 1200 and the remaining 700-800 will be aircraft of all types.

Thank you for the links. I am not sure about the 70:30 ratio, though. I haven't seen any statement confirming such a ratio. Usually ratios are reverse from that.

You are right... within normal organisations the numbers are reversed, but amongst normal organisations most of the in service material does not need replacement as urgently.

Infrastructure also needs a serious upgrade too, and maintainence and training need money spent.

I just don't see how 5 trillion rubles can be spent on just 800 planes (out of which not all are expensive combat planes) and 1200 helicopters (whose average flyaway price is probably in the 10 million dollar range. perhaps 15 if we account in the inflation) So how does one spend 165 billion dollars in 10 years?

It is hard to find prices russia will pay for equipment but that price is bound to be lower than export prices, no? anyway, those 2000 aircraft, even with some prices from 2015-2020 still shouldn't go over 65-70 billion dollars. Yes, total cost of owning and using a plane can reach 300% of initial flyaway cost, but that includes everything - from salaries of people using it, cost of training, maintenance, fuel, etc. And that is all spread over at least 30 years. Here we have a situation where majority of those 2000 aircraft will be serving less than 5 years. Yes, the training portion of the cost will be there. But cost of maintennance, fuel and salaries will be just 15% or less of the total sum of such costs.

There may be development costs, sure. But pakfa program is nearing its development end, most of costs for that are already spent. UAVs may be developed, but even in US those don't eat up so much money. Plus one can't just use US development costs as salaries are higher over there. Only really big development program is PAK-DA, which is still dwarfed by the remaining sum, plus we have no way of knowing which parts of its development will be paid by the secret part of the budget. Since pakfa is newest and strategic asset, it is quite plausible at least part of it will be paid from those 4 trillion rubles of secret projects budget. (Just like next US bomber will be paid from secret budget)

Weapons development and weapons procurement are never costly enough to go over some 20% of the costs of planes. There is just a huge gap between those 2000 aircraft (and all the added costs for using them by 2020) and the figure of 165 billion dollars.
Short of a big devalvation of ruble in the coming period i don't see how those two can meet together. So I will just assume we are not being told everything, there is some important info missing to put everything in perspective.

Let assume the worst if its 70:30 ratio i.e 70 for maintenance , salaries etc and 30 % for Weapons procurement.

Then $700 Billion ( 20 Trillion ) , the weapons procurement will be 210 billion dollars. Its still a big amount.

But I am certain the capex is much bigger than than.

Some have even suggested that the entire 20 trillion is just for weapons procurement as extra grants while defence budget come from the normal budget.

We need more clarification here for sure

It would need to include 70% new equipment by 2020, so it is not just 2,000 aircraft, it is new aircraft shelters, new airfields, new air defences, new radars and electronics and equipment... and while some of those aircraft will be cheap... some will be very expensive including jammer aircraft and intel aircraft.

Equally the entire inventory of precision guided weapons needs to be bought including sufficient reserves.

Ok found some datapoint on SAP 2020 funding thanks to Mindstorm.

http://www.oborona.ru/includes/periodics/armament/2011/1212/14237820/detail.shtml

According to the decision, 70% of the amount allocated to the GPV-2020, will be used to purchase new weapons and military equipment. The remaining money will be spent approximately equal to the modernization and maintenance of existing weapons (by 13-15% depending on the year, with the decline), and R & D (by 16-20% with an increase).

So its 70 % for new weapons from SAP , 20 trillion rubles is equal to 613 billion dollars , so 70 % is nearly $430 Billion dollar.

So modernisation and maintenance get 13-15 % which is very low suprisingly and R&D gets $120 Billion Dollar

No point in modernising a large portion of the fleet if most of it will be replaced anyway.

No point in maintaining parts of the fleet that will be replaced either, though maintaining them to keep them operational is important that will come out of the existing budget... this new funding is extra so it is additional funding for maintainence.

That would suggest that the 20 trillion rubles does NOT include any money for the personnel (salaries and upkeep), for operations and training (fuel, various expendable materials), construction (bases, houses, etc) nor administration.

US budget, (without the overseas operations bonus) spends 55-56% on operations, maintenance, personnel and administration. Plus 5% more on construction.

One can thus imagine that direct defense expenditure in russia would, on top of the 20 trillion, be a bit higher. At least 40-50 billion dollars per year more. That'd mean at least 1100 billion dollars total by 2020.

http://vpk-news.ru/news/16051

Finance Ministry wants to defer the costs of rearmament

The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Defense plans to consider the possibility of transferring some of the costs of the state program of armaments 2011-2020 (SAP) for 2-3 years, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

"Now we must work together with the Ministry of Defense to see the opportunity for the transfer of part of the cost - he said. - If the possibility is - well. If the Ministry of Defence says that there is - then no. " "This may be 2-3 years", - he said, adding that "it would be normal, acceptable, if we tore down the right amount of our purchases under the program."

According to ITAR-TASS, Siluanov also did not rule out that the developed state armaments program for the years 2016-2025 may require about 20 trillion funding. Replying to a question whether the cost of a new state program to be implemented now comparable to, the minister said, "as long as it offers, we did not consider the new draft SAP, but I do not rule out such an approach."

"We're really realize the massive rearmament, but also military science does not stand still, need more and more new systems for our armed forces - the Minister continued. - Though we said - 70 percent of the modern arms achieved by 2020, but even then is a new, modern weapons. " "This process can continue indefinitely, and money to support the armed forces of defense, of course, need not small," - said the Minister. "Especially for a country that has nuclear weapons and has a huge border," - he added.

Russian Defense Contracts Up for Review


MOSCOW, May 24 (RIA Novosti) – Defense Ministry contracts signed under former Minister Anatoly Serdyukov are to be thoroughly examined and if necessary, audited, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said on Friday.

Serdyukov, who had held the post of Defense Minister since 2007, was sacked in November and replaced by Sergei Shoigu amid a series of ongoing corruption scandals that have rocked Russia’s defense sector.

“It is necessary to see how feasible those contracts are,” Rogozin told a meeting with shipbuilding company heads.

“Those contracts that were signed, as you know, were largely detrimental.”

Rogozin, who oversees the defense industry, said earlier in the day that the Russian government is ready to step in to sort out the crisis in Russian naval shipbuilding that is threatening to derail the defense procurement program.

He made his comments on the same day it was revealed that the state-run United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) is looking for money that was allocated to complete the Nerpa nuclear submarine for India’s navy. A total of 500 million rubles ($15.9 million) is unaccounted for, Kommersant business daily reported on Friday.

USC’s previous board of directors “bears full responsibility for nodding their heads, signing unworkable documents, concluding contracts at prices that were obviously below market levels,” Rogozin said on Friday.

President Vladimir Putin has been briefed on the issue and the implementation of the arms procurement program will be discussed in late July, Rogozin said.

“We won’t tolerate any further delays in that program,” he warned.

Putin criticized USC on Tuesday over delays in the delivery of warships to the Navy. The president announced at a meeting that day that Vladimir Shmakov, first deputy CEO of tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod, has been appointed as new USC head, with a brief to sort out the delivery program.

Putin ordered USC's management to submit a report by October 15 on measures to improve the situation in the industry.

© RIA Novosti.

France's Mistral amphibious assault ship

USC, established in 2007, is Russia’s largest shipbuilding and ship repair company. It comprises nine design bureaus and 39 shipyards. USC currently accounts for 70 percent of the domestic shipbuilding industry, according to its website.

Doubts about the ability of the industry to deliver warships on time and budget prompted Serdyukov to order Mistral-class amphibious assault ships from France in 2011. That deal has subsequently been criticized by Rogozin and other senior defense industry officials.

The Russian Navy is expected to receive 24 submarines and 54 surface warships of various classes by 2020, according to the Defense Ministry.

Putin said last year that the procurement of new warships and submarines for the Navy would be a priority over the next decade. The Russian government has allocated five trillion rubles ($166 bln) or a quarter of the entire armament procurement budget through 2020 for this purpose.

http://en.rian.ru/military_news/20130524/181326737/Russian-Defense-Contracts-Up-for-Review.html

Always good to review contracts, though if this is a case of shifting the bribes from the old guard to the new guys in charge... well... where there is money there is corruption...

Russian Nuclear Submarine Contracts ‘Underpriced’

MOSCOW, June 7 (RIA Novosti) – Former Russian Defense Ministry officials forced shipbuilders to underprice nuclear submarine contracts, which nearly scuttled the 2011 State Defense Order, a senior Russian official said Friday.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the defense industry, said the contracts were for Borey- and Yasen-class ballistic missile submarines, and the underpricing almost scuttled the order, which was eventually signed under former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov.

Serdyukov, who had held the post of Defense Minister since 2007, was sacked in November and replaced by Sergei Shoigu amid a series of ongoing corruption scandals that have rocked Russia’s defense sector.

Defense Ministry officials had claimed that the shipbuilders’ contract prices were too high, which led to a protracted wrangling over prices. In 2011, the contracts were only signed in November, in the presence of then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Whereas the original price of the Yury Dolgoruky submarine was more than 20 billion rubles (about $70 million), it subsequently increased to 50 billion.

Rogozin said the work on the new submarines was currently going according to schedule but the underpriced contracts were resulting in additional costs. “We are thinking of how to tackle that problem,” he said.

Yuri Dolgoruky strategic nuclear submarine: characteristics

Rogozin said in late May that Defense Ministry contracts signed under Serdyukov were to be thoroughly examined and, if necessary, audited. Those contracts were “largely detrimental,” he said, adding that the Russian government was ready to step in to sort out the crisis in Russian naval shipbuilding that is threatening to derail the defense procurement program.

He made his comments on the same day it was revealed that the state-run United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) was looking for money allocated to complete the Nerpa nuclear submarine for India’s navy. A total of 500 million rubles ($15.9 million) went unaccounted for, the Kommersant business daily reported.

USC’s previous board of directors “bears full responsibility for nodding their heads, signing unworkable documents and concluding contracts at prices that were obviously below market levels,” Rogozin said at the time.

President Putin has been briefed on the issue, and the implementation of the arms procurement program will be discussed in late July, Rogozin said. Putin ordered USC's management to submit a report by October 15 on measures to improve the situation in the industry.

Doubts about the ability of the industry to deliver warships on time and within budget prompted Serdyukov to order Mistral-class amphibious assault ships from France in 2011. That deal has subsequently been criticized by Rogozin and other senior defense industry officials.

The Russian Navy is expected to receive 24 submarines and 54 surface warships of various classes by 2020, according to the Defense Ministry.

Putin said last year that the procurement of new warships and submarines for the Navy would be a priority over the next decade. The Russian government has allocated 5 trillion rubles ($166 billion), or a quarter of the entire armament procurement budget through 2020, for this purpose.

http://en.rian.ru/military_news/20130607/181563795/Russian-Nuclear-Submarine-Contracts-Underpriced.html

I expected something like this. 

Putin Backs Extension of Arms Procurement Program


MOSCOW, June 13 (RIA Novosti) – Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a proposal to extend parts of Russia’s ambitious arms procurement program beyond 2020.
Putin said in his annual budget address to the government on Thursday that defense industry firms must have the production capacity and technology needed to fulfill their contracts with the military, and use the funds allocated under the program efficiently.
If the companies are not ready to start efficiently fulfilling orders, "the Defense Ministry should come up with an initiative regarding a more rational timeframe for the allocation of these funds," the president said.
Putin added that the overall budget for arms procurement will remain unchanged and the program must be implemented.
“We have adopted this program, it must be implemented, and implemented efficiently,” he said.
The Russian government has allocated 20 trillion rubles ($641 billion) for the comprehensive rearmament of Russia's armed forces.
Russia's 2011-2020 arms procurement program stipulates the upgrade of up to 11 percent of military equipment annually and will allow the country to increase the share of modern weaponry in the armed forces to 70 percent by 2020.
The Russian defense industry has been criticized recently for delays in the signing and fulfillment of military contracts, as well as for the inefficient use of state funds in the production of new weaponry.
The Finance Ministry has proposed extending the duration of the arms procurement program in “problem areas,” such as the delivery of combat ships and strategic submarines, beyond 2020.

LINK

Only thing now that Im interested in is how many guidance channels per engagement radar Dark Knight has.

I bet 10 will be its lowest number but I expect even more.

Interesting thing is that in 2013 we will have

- MVMS naval show
- MAKS-2013
- Arms show at Nizhny Tagil

So lots of news there and we will be certainly a lot smarter several months from now

PS. @Austin - I dont have info about 22350 radar.

Viktor wrote:Interesting thing is that in 2013 we will have

- MVMS naval show
- MAKS-2013
- Arms show at Nizhny Tagil

Keenly waiting for those exhibitions.
The last editions of these shows were somewhat disappointing as far as novelties being revealed.

I hope to see:

- New scale models of warships at MVMS + some new weapon systems
- Vityaz and BUK-M3 at MAKS + some new air launched weapons, engines and avionics
- Kurganets, Tornado and Taifun at NT + some surprises

From my point I would like to see:

- S-500/Morfei - info/pics
- Dark Knight at battery or regimental   structure (model at least) + lots of info
- Finally 40N6 and its status and specs (eventually data about modernized S-400)
- New set of air to air weapons developed for PAK-FA and air to ground (mostly showed at MAKS-2011)
- Hope to clear things about Redut system (types of missiles it will carry) and info about Poliment radar
- more info about PAK-FA
- new nuclear attack subs some media speculated about
- info about new destroyers in development (al least throw us a bone)
- info about new Russian vehicles (Armata, Boomerang, Kruganets) + Coalition-SV
- info about HERMES missiles and its applications on helicopters
- info about Russian UAV/UCAV
- etc etc

Another Vityaz pics from a different perspective.

TR1 wrote:The Zhuk-A is only being fitted in MiG-29M generation airframes and spin offs.

I have seen no indication of it being fitted into the legacy 9-12/9-13 aiframe, and export birds are all (save MiG-29K) so far the first gen airframes.

Also 124 Su-34s is pathetic? lol. You might wanna check Russia's budget.

SAP-2020 is budget for procurement. $600B, about 25% or more is for the airforce. That is a lot of money. They could effectively purchase more Su-30MKI's than India has in service, and plus much more. This is an example of course. 124 Su-34's is a decent number, yes, but overall, kinda pathetic since the Su-24's were needed to be replaced yesterday. Then there is of course the Su-27's and MiG-29's in service, of which many's airframe are past life expectancy, and Su-27's still using the older N001V radar, which is also in need of replacement because they are just not capable of even dealing with modern F-15's or F-16's.

I am also a proponent of gradual buildup - even though having a modern airforce as soon as possible is never a bad thing, because you never know what threat might emerge in a small timeframe. However taking into account the workers, tooling and tons of subcontractors slowly but steadily fulfilling is allways the way to go. However knowing the size of the Airforce and the sheer size of the upgrade plans, i would say that there is a need for few more factories to be built. If not for the military then surely for the civil aviation programmes like the MS-21 or the new widebdy jetliner that is in development with China.

Flanky wrote:I am also a proponent of gradual buildup - even though having a modern airforce as soon as possible is never a bad thing, because you never know what threat might emerge in a small timeframe. However taking into account the workers, tooling and tons of subcontractors slowly but steadily fulfilling is allways the way to go. However knowing the size of the Airforce and the sheer size of the upgrade plans, i would say that there is a need for few more factories to be built. If not for the military then surely for the civil aviation programmes like the MS-21 or the new widebdy jetliner that is in development with China.

I think there are plenty of facilities. What I think is, that maybe company separate from UAC or maybe UAC themselves should have an entity that deals specifically for maintenance and upgrade of jets already in service, much like what Belarus has (maybe one already exists, dunno). But it would be a good addition to the manufacturing plants, where the said groups task is to overhaul the jets with what is needed, like newer radar or upgrading the one in service, and doing what needs to be done to overhaul airframe. Since Su-27's in Russian service (and upgrades) are using the N001V radar, why not add the Pero antenna? Why not upgrade the processor to either the newer Elbrus 2C+ or other such processors? Not much is known about the N001 radar, but upgrading them with modern components may give new life and much greater performance.

I agree as well that maybe getting everything done now is not the best, especially economically, but many jets need to be upgraded/overhauled. I understand with SAP-2020 they also include many upgrades, over a 100, but some of the upgrades are questionable - like keeping the radar as is. N001 radars are quite old, are not comparrible to performance used by NATO F-15's and F-16's, as well as there are more capable radars that could be still powered by standard AL-31F engines, like the Zhuk-27 (using M upgrades).

sepheronx wrote:

TR1 wrote:The Zhuk-A is only being fitted in MiG-29M generation airframes and spin offs.

I have seen no indication of it being fitted into the legacy 9-12/9-13 aiframe, and export birds are all (save MiG-29K) so far the first gen airframes.

Also 124 Su-34s is pathetic? lol. You might wanna check Russia's budget.

SAP-2020 is budget for procurement.  $600B, about 25% or more is for the airforce.  That is a lot of money.  They could effectively purchase more Su-30MKI's than India has in service, and plus much more.  This is an example of course.  124 Su-34's is a decent number, yes, but overall, kinda pathetic since the Su-24's were needed to be replaced yesterday.  Then there is of course the Su-27's and MiG-29's in service, of which many's airframe are past life expectancy, and Su-27's still using the older N001V radar, which is also in need of replacement because they are just not capable of even dealing with modern F-15's or F-16's.

Wrong. 600 billion is not just for procurement.

When you consider the amount of spending the VVS has (increased personel pay, airfield restructuring, navigational equipment, munitions, SAM,) the purchase of ~350+ new Flanker airframes in the 2020 timeframe is very healthy considering the Russian budget.
The VVS is also buying a crapton of helicopters, hell they are purchasing around 300 attack helos alone.

Also airframes that are past service life are not in service....because they don't fly once airframe life is exhausted.