B.R.I.C.S. Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:What do you think are the consequences for Russia with Lula's victory of brasilian presidential election?

Is he a better or worse partner than Bolsonaro for Russia?

The western left is rotten to the core. Somebody with better knowledge of Brazilian politics has to inform us if Lula is a legitimate
leftist or a neo-leftist globalist scumbag. He could have been acting like a legitimate leftist in the past but that does not mean he
is not a globalist tool.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:What do you think are the consequences for Russia with Lula's victory of brasilian presidential election?

Is he a better or worse partner than Bolsonaro for Russia?

With Lula as President it will be better for Russia than it would be with Bolsonaro.
Now all the main Latin American economies will be headed by progressive Heads of State and Moscow has excellent relationships with them.

kvs wrote:

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:What do you think are the consequences for Russia with Lula's victory of brasilian presidential election?

Is he a better or worse partner than Bolsonaro for Russia?

The western left is rotten to the core.   Somebody with better knowledge of Brazilian politics has to inform us if Lula is a legitimate
leftist or a neo-leftist globalist scumbag.   He could have been acting like a legitimate leftist in the past but that does not mean he
is not a globalist tool.    

If Lula will again be a legitimate leftist or a neo-leftist globalist scumbag will ultimately depend on who he appoints as his Foreign Affairs minister. Lately, Bolsonaro has ignored the so-called Itamaraty Brazilian school of diplomacy, which to my feelings is a globalist (traditionally) pool of diplomatic thought.
I sincerely hope that Lula does not pick someone such as favourite candidate Celso Amorim for the post.

Everybody wants to hop on the BRICS Express, by Pepe Escobar for The Cradle. 11.07.2022.

Eurasia is about to get a whole lot larger as countries line up to join the Chinese and Russian-led BRICS and SCO, to the detriment of the west.

Let’s start with what is in fact a tale of Global South trade between two members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). At its heart is the already notorious Shahed-136 drone – or Geranium-2, in its Russian denomination: the AK-47 of postmodern aerial warfare.

The US, in yet another trademark hysteria fit rife with irony, accused Tehran of weaponizing the Russian Armed Forces. For both Tehran and Moscow, the superstar, value-for-money, and terribly efficient drone let loose in the Ukrainian battlefield is a state secret: its deployment prompted a flurry of denials from both sides. Whether these are made in Iran drones, or the design was bought and manufacturing takes place in Russia (the realistic option), is immaterial.

The record shows that the US weaponizes Ukraine to the hilt against Russia. The Empire is a de facto war combatant via an array of “consultants,” advisers, trainers, mercenaries, heavy weapons, munitions, satellite intel, and electronic warfare. And yet imperial functionaries swear they are not part of the war. They are, once again, lying.

Welcome to yet another graphic instance of the “rules-based international order” at work. The Hegemon always decides which rules apply, and when. Anyone opposing it is an enemy of “freedom,” “democracy,” or whatever platitude du jour, and should be – what else – punished by arbitrary sanctions.

In the case of sanctioned-to-oblivion Iran, for decades now, the result has been predictably another round of sanctions. That’s irrelevant. What matters is that, according to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), no less than 22 nations – and counting – are joining the queue because they also want to get into the Shahed groove.

Even Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gleefully joined the fray, commenting on how the Shahed-136 is no photoshop.

The race towards BRICS+

What the new sanctions package against Iran really “accomplished” is to deliver an additional blow to the increasingly problematic signing of the revived nuclear deal in Vienna. More Iranian oil on the market would actually relieve Washington’s predicament after the recent epic snub by OPEC+.

A categorical imperative though remains. Iranophobia – just like Russophobia – always prevails for the Straussians/neo-con war advocates in charge of US foreign policy and their European vassals.

So here we have yet another hostile escalation in both Iran-US and Iran-EU relations, as the unelected junta in Brussels also sanctioned manufacturer Shahed Aviation Industries and three Iranian generals.

Now compare this with the fate of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone – which unlike the “flowers in the sky” (Russia’s Geraniums) has performed miserably in the battlefield.

Kiev tried to convince the Turks to use a Motor Sich weapons factory in Ukraine or come up with a new company in Transcarpathia/Lviv to build Bayraktars. Motor Sich’s oligarch President Vyacheslav Boguslayev, aged 84, has been charged with treason because of his links to Russia, and may be exchanged for Ukrainian prisoners of war.

In the end, the deal fizzled out because of Ankara’s exceptional enthusiasm in working to establish a new gas hub in Turkey – a personal suggestion from Russian President Vladimir Putin to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

And that bring us to the advancing interconnection between BRICS and the 9-member SCO – to which this Russia-Iran instance of military trade is inextricably linked.

The SCO, led by China and Russia, is a pan-Eurasian institution originally focused on counter-terrorism but now increasingly geared towards geoeconomic – and geopolitical – cooperation. BRICS, led by the triad of Russia, India, and China overlaps with the SCO agenda geoeconomically and geopoliticallly, expanding it to Africa, Latin America and beyond: that’s the concept of BRICS+, analyzed in detail in a recent Valdai Club report, and fully embraced by the Russia-China strategic partnership.

The report weighs the pros and cons of three scenarios involving possible, upcoming BRICS+ candidates:

First, nations that were invited by Beijing to be part of the 2017 BRICS summit (Egypt, Kenya, Mexico, Thailand, Tajikistan).

Second, nations that were part of the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in May this year (Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Thailand).

Third, key G20 economies (Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye).

And then there’s Iran, which has already already shown interest in joining BRICS.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has recently confirmed that “several countries” are absolutely dying to join BRICS. Among them, a crucial West Asia player: Saudi Arabia.

What makes it even more astonishing is that only three years ago, under former US President Donald Trump’s administration, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) – the kingdom’s de fact ruler – was dead set on joining a sort of Arab NATO as a privileged imperial ally.

Diplomatic sources confirm that the day after the US pulled out of Afghanistan, MbS’s envoys started seriously negotiating with both Moscow and Beijing.

Assuming BRICS approves Riyadh’s candidacy in 2023 by the necessary consensus, one can barely imagine its earth-shattering consequences for the petrodollar. At the same time, it is important not to underestimate the capacity of US foreign policy controllers to wreak havoc.

The only reason Washington tolerates Riyadh’s regime is the petrodollar. The Saudis cannot be allowed to pursue an independent, truly sovereign foreign policy. If that happens, the geopolitical realignment will concern not only Saudi Arabia but the entire Persian Gulf.

Yet that’s increasingly likely after OPEC+ de facto chose the BRICS/SCO path led by Russia-China – in what can be interpreted as a “soft” preamble for the end of the petrodollar.

The Riyadh-Tehran-Ankara triad

Iran made known its interest to join BRICS even before Saudi Arabia. According to Persian Gulf diplomatic sources, they are already engaged in a somewhat secret channel via Iraq trying to get their act together. Turkey will soon follow – certainly on BRICS and possibly the SCO, where Ankara currently carries the status of extremely interested observer.

Now imagine this triad – Riyadh, Tehran, Ankara – closely joined with Russia, India, China (the actual core of the BRICS), and eventually in the SCO, where Iran is as yet the only West Asian nation to be inducted as a full member.

The strategic blow to the Empire will go off the charts. The discussions leading to BRICS+ are focusing on the challenging path towards a commodity-backed global currency capable of bypassing US dollar primacy.

Several interconnected steps point towards increasing symbiosis between BRICS+ and SCO. The latter’s members states have already agreed on a road map for gradually increasing trade in national currencies in mutual settlements.

The State Bank of India – the nation’s top lender – is opening special rupee accounts for Russia-related trade.

Russian natural gas to Turkey will be paid 25 percent in rubles and Turkish lira, complete with a 25 percent discount Erdogan personally asked of Putin.

Russian bank VTB has launched money transfers to China in yuan, bypassing SWIFT, while Sberbank has started lending out money in yuan. Russian energy behemoth Gazprom agreed with China that gas supply payments should shift to rubles and yuan, split evenly.

Iran and Russia are unifying their banking systems for trade in rubles/rial.

Egypt’s Central Bank is moving to establish an index for the pound – through a group of currencies plus gold – to move the national currency away from the US dollar.

And then there’s the TurkStream saga.

That gas hub gift

Ankara for years has been trying to position itself as a privileged East-West gas hub. After the sabotage of the Nord Streams, Putin has handed it on a plate by offering Turkey the possibility to increase Russian gas supplies to the EU via such a hub. The Turkish Energy Ministry stated that Ankara and Moscow have already reached an agreement in principle.

This will mean in practice Turkey controlling the gas flow to Europe not only from Russia but also Azerbaijan and a great deal of West Asia, perhaps even including Iran, as well as Libya in northeast Africa. LNG terminals in Egypt, Greece and Turkiye itself may complete the network.

Russian gas travels via the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines. The total capacity of Russian pipelines is 39 billion cubic meters a year.

TurkStream was initially projected as a four-strand pipeline, with a nominal capacity of 63 million cubic meters a year. As it stands, only two strands – with a total capacity of 31,5 billion cubic meters – have been built.

So an extension in theory is more than feasible – with all the equipment made in Russia. The problem, once again, is laying the pipes. The necessary vessels belong to the Swiss Allseas Group – and Switzerland is part of the sanctions craze. In the Baltic Sea, Russian vessels were used to finish building Nord Stream 2. But for a TurkStream extension, they would need to operate much deeper in the ocean.

TurkStream would not be able to completely replace Nord Stream; it carries much smaller volumes. The upside for Russia is not being canceled from the EU market. Evidently Gazprom would only tackle the substantial investment on an extension if there are ironclad guarantees about its security. And there’s the additional drawback that the extension would also carry gas from Russia’s competitors.

Whatever happens, the fact remains that the US-UK combo still exerts a lot of influence in Turkey – and BP, Exxon Mobil, and Shell, for instance, are actors in virtually every oil extraction project across West Asia. So they would certainly interfere on the way the Turkish gas hub functions, as well on determining the gas price. Moscow has to weigh all these variables before committing to such a project.

NATO, of course, will be livid. But never underestimate hedging bet specialist Sultan Erdogan. His love story with both the BRICS and the SCO is just beginning.

https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/17447

BRICS++++ 

Rewiring Eurasia: Mr. Patrushev goes to Tehran, by Pepe Escobar for The Cradle. 11.10.2022.

The meeting this week between two Eurasian security bosses is a further step toward dusting away the west's oversized Asian footprint.

Two guys are hanging out in a cozy room in Tehran with a tantalizing new map of the world in the background.

Nothing to see here? On the contrary. These two Eurasian security giants are no less than the – unusually relaxed – Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

And why are they so relaxed? Because the future prospects revolving around the main theme of their conversation – the Russia-Iran strategic partnership – could not be more exciting.

This was a very serious business affair: an official visit, at the invitation of Shamkhani.

Patrushev was in Tehran on the exact same day that Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu – following a recommendation from General Sergey Surovikin, the overall commander of the Special Military Operation – ordered a Russian retreat from Kherson.

Patrushev knew it for days – so he had no problem to step on a plane to take care of business in Tehran. After all, the Kherson drama is part of the Patrushev negotiations with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Ukraine, which have been going on for weeks, with Saudi Arabia as eventual go-between.

Besides Ukraine, the two discussed “information security, as well as measures to counter interference in the internal affairs of both countries by western special services,” according to a report by Russia’s TASS news agency.

Both countries, as we know, are particular targets of western information warfare and sabotage, with Iran currently the focus of one of these no-holds-barred, foreign-backed, destabilization campaign.

Patrushev was officially received by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who went straight to the point: “The cooperation of independent countries is the strongest response to the sanctions and destabilization policies of the US and its allies.”

Patrushev, for his part, assured Raisi that for the Russian Federation, strategic relations with Iran are essential for Russian national security.

So that goes way beyond Geranium-2 kamikaze drones – the Russian cousins of the Shahed-136 – wreaking havoc in the Ukrainian battlefield. Which, by the way, elicited a direct mention later on by Shamkhani: “Iran welcomes a peaceful settlement in Ukraine and is in favor of peace based on dialogue between Moscow and Kiev.”

Patrushev and Shamkhani of course discussed security issues and the proverbial “cooperation in the international arena.” But what may be more significant is that the Russian delegation included officials from several key economic agencies.

There were no leaks – but that suggests serious economic connectivity remains at the heart of the strategic partnership between the two top sanctioned nations in Eurasia.

Key in the discussions was the Iranian focus on fast expansion of bilateral trade in national currencies – ruble and rial. That happens to be at the center of the drive by both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS towards multipolarity. Iran is now a full SCO member – the only West Asian nation to be part of the Asian strategic behemoth – and will apply to become part of BRICS+.

Have swap, will travel

The Patrushev-Shamkhani get together happened ahead of the signing, next month, of a whopping $40 billion energy deal with Gazprom, as previously announced by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari.

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has already clinched an initial $6.5 billion deal. All that revolves around the development of two gas deposits and six oilfields; swaps in natural gas and oil products; LNG projects; and building more gas pipelines.

Last month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak announced a swap of 5 million tons of oil and 10 billion cubic meters of gas, to be finished by the end of 2022. And he confirmed that “the amount of Russian investment in Iran’s oil fields will increase.”

Barter of course is ideal for Moscow and Tehran to jointly bypass interminably problematic sanctions and payment settlement issues – linked to the western financial system. On top of it, Russia and Iran are able to invest in direct trade links via the Caspian Sea.

At the recent Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, Raisi forcefully proposed that a successful “new Asia” must necessarily develop an endogenous model for independent states.

As an SCO member, and playing a very important role, alongside Russia and India, in the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), Raisi is positioning Iran in a key vector of multilateralism.

Since Tehran entered the SCO, cooperation with both Russia and China, predictably, is on overdrive. Patrushev’s visit is part of that process. Tehran is leaving behind decades of Iranophobia and every possible declination of American “maximum pressure” – from sanctions to attempts at color revolution – to dynamically connect across Eurasia.

BRI, SCO, INSTC

Iran is a key Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner for China’s grand infrastructure project to connect Eurasia via road, sea, and train. In parallel, the multimodal Russian-led INSTC is essential to promote trade between the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia – at the same time solidifying Russia’s presence in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region.

Iran and India have committed to offer part of Chabahar port in Iran to Central Asian nations, complete with access to exclusive economic zones.

At the recent SCO summit in Samarkand, both Russia and China made it quite clear – especially for the collective west – that Iran is no longer going to be treated as a pariah state.

So it is no wonder Iran that is entering a new business era with all members of the SCO under the sign of an emerging financial order being designed mostly by Russia, China and India. As far as strategic partnerships go, the ties between Russia and India (President Narendra Modi called it an unbreakable friendship) is as strong as those between Russia and China. And when it comes to Russia, that’s what Iran is aiming at.

The Patrushev-Shamkhani strategic meeting will hurl western hysteria to unseen levels – as it completely smashes Iranophobia and Russophobia in one fell swoop. Iran as a close ally is an unparalleled strategic asset for Russia in the drive towards multipolarity.

Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are already negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in parallel to those swaps involving Russian oil. The west’s reliance on the SWIFT banking messaging system hardly makes any difference to Russia and Iran. The Global South is watching it closely, especially in Iran’s neighborhood where oil is commonly traded in US dollars.

It is starting to become clear to anyone in the west with an IQ above room temperature that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal), in the end, does not matter anymore. Iran’s future is directly connected to the success of three of the BRICS: Russia, China and India. Iran itself may soon become a BRICS+ member.

There’s more: Iran is even becoming a role model for the Persian Gulf: witness the lengthy queue of regional states aspiring toward gaining SCO membership. The Trumpian “Abraham Accords?” What’s that? BRICS/SCO/BRI is the only way to go in West Asia today.

https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/18115

Russia, India, China, Iran: The Quad That Really Matters, by Pepe Escobar for The Unz Review with courtesy of Press TV. 11.15.2022.

Southeast Asia is right at the center of international relations for a whole week viz a viz three consecutive summits: Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Phnom Penh, the Group of Twenty (G20) summit in Bali, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bangkok.

Eighteen nations accounting for roughly half of the global economy represented at the first in-person ASEAN summit since the Covid-19 pandemic in Cambodia: the ASEAN 10, Japan, South Korea, China, India, US, Russia, Australia, and New Zealand.

With characteristic Asian politeness, the summit chair, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen (or “Colombian”, according to the so-called “leader of the free world”), said the plenary meeting was somewhat heated, but the atmosphere was not tense: “Leaders talked in a mature way, no one left.”

It was up to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to express what was really significant at the end of the summit.

While praising the “inclusive, open, equal structure of security and cooperation at ASEAN”, Lavrov stressed how Europe and NATO “want to militarize the region in order to contain Russia and China’s interests in the Indo-Pacific.”

A manifestation of this policy is how “AUKUS is openly aiming at confrontation in the South China Sea,” he said.

Lavrov also stressed how the West, via the NATO military alliance, is accepting ASEAN “only nominally” while promoting a completely “unclear” agenda.

What’s clear though is how NATO “has moved towards Russian borders several times and now declared at the Madrid summit that they have taken global responsibility.”

This leads us to the clincher: “NATO is moving their line of defense to the South China Sea.” And, Lavrov added, Beijing holds the same assessment.

Here, concisely, is the open “secret” of our current geopolitical incandescence. Washington’s number one priority is the containment of China. That implies blocking the EU from getting closer to the key Eurasia drivers – China, Russia, and Iran – engaged in building the world’s largest free trade/connectivity environment.

Adding to the decades-long hybrid war against Iran, the infinite weaponizing of the Ukrainian black hole fits into the initial stages of the battle.

For the Empire, Iran cannot profit from becoming a provider of cheap, quality energy to the EU. And in parallel, Russia must be cut off from the EU. The next step is to force the EU to cut itself off from China.

All that fits into the wildest, warped Straussian/neo-con wet dreams: to attack China, by emboldening Taiwan, first Russia must be weakened, via the instrumentalization (and destruction) of Ukraine.

And all along the scenario, Europe simply has no agency.

Putin, Raeisi and the Erdogan track

Real life across key Eurasia nodes reveals a completely different picture. Take the relaxed get-together in Tehran between Russia’s top security official Nikolai Patrushev and his Iranian counterpart Ali Shamkhani last week.

They discussed not only security matters but also serious business – as in turbo-charged trade.

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) will sign a $40 billion deal next month with Gazprom, bypassing US sanctions, and encompassing the development of two gas fields and six oilfields, swaps in natural gas and oil products, LNG projects, and the construction of gas pipelines.

Immediately after the Patrushev-Shamkhani meeting, President Putin called President Ebrahim Raeisi to keep up the “interaction in politics, trade and the economy, including transport and logistics,” according to the Kremlin.

Iranian president reportedly more than “welcomed” the “strengthening” of Moscow-Tehran ties.

Patrushev unequivocally supported Tehran over the latest color revolution adventure perpetrated under the framework of the Empire’s endless hybrid war.

Iran and the EAEU are negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in parallel to the swap deals with Russian oil. Soon, SWIFT may be completely bypassed. The whole Global South is watching.

Simultaneous to Putin’s phone call, Turkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan – conducting his own diplomatic overdrive, and just back from a summit of Turkic nations in Samarkand – stressed that the US and the collective West are attacking Russia “almost without limits”.

Erdogan made it clear that Russia is a “powerful” state and commended its “great resistance”.

The response came exactly 24 hours later. Turkish intelligence cut to the chase, pointing out that the terrorist bombing in the perpetually busy Istiklal pedestrian street in Istanbul was designed in Kobane in northern Syria, which essentially responds to the US.

That constitutes a de-facto act of war and may unleash serious consequences, including a profound revision of Turkiye’s presence inside NATO.

Iran’s multi-track strategy

A Russia-Iran strategic alliance manifests itself practically as a historical inevitability. It recalls the time when the erstwhile USSR helped Iran militarily via North Korea, after an enforced US/Europe blockade.

Putin and Raeisi are taking it to the next level. Moscow and Tehran are developing a joint strategy to defeat the weaponization of sanctions by the collective West.

Iran, after all, has an absolutely stellar record of smashing variants of “maximum pressure” to bits. Also, it is now linked to a strategic nuclear umbrella offered by the “RICs” in BRICS (Russia, India, China).

So, Tehran may now plan to develop its massive economic potential within the framework of BRI, SCO, INSTC, the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), and the Russian-led Greater Eurasia Partnership.

Moscow’s game is pure sophistication: engaging in a high-level strategic oil alliance with Saudi Arabia while deepening its strategic partnership with Iran.

Immediately after Patrushev’s visit, Tehran announced the development of an indigenously built hypersonic ballistic missile, quite similar to the Russian KH-47 M2 Khinzal.

And the other significant news was connectivity-wise: the completion of part of a railway from strategic Chabahar Port to the border with Turkmenistan. That means imminent direct rail connectivity to the Central Asian, Russian and Chinese spheres.

Add to it the predominant role of OPEC+, the development of BRICS+, and the pan-Eurasian drive to pricing trade, insurance, security, investments in the ruble, yuan, rial, etc.

There’s also the fact that Tehran could not care less about the endless collective West procrastination on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as Iran nuclear deal: what really matters now is the deepening relationship with the “RICs” in BRICS.

Tehran refused to sign a tampered-with EU draft nuclear deal in Vienna. Brussels was enraged; no Iranian oil will “save” Europe, replacing Russian oil under a nonsensical cap to be imposed next month.

And Washington was enraged because it was betting on internal tensions to split OPEC.

Considering all of the above, no wonder US ‘Think Tankland’ is behaving like a bunch of headless chickens.

The queue to join BRICS

During the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand last September, it was already tacit to all players how the Empire is cannibalizing its closest allies.

And how, simultaneously, the shrinking NATO-sphere is turning inwards, with a focus on The Enemy Within, relentlessly corralling average citizens to march in lockstep behind total compliance with a two-pronged war – hybrid and otherwise – against imperial peer competitors Russia and China.

Now compare it with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Samarkand presenting China and Russia, together, as the top “responsible global powers” bent on securing the emergence of multipolarity.

Samarkand also reaffirmed the strategic political partnership between Russia and India (Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it an unbreakable friendship).

That was corroborated by the meeting between Lavrov and his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar last week in Moscow.

Lavrov praised the strategic partnership in every crucial area – politics, trade and economics, investment, and technology, as well as “closely coordinated actions” at the UN Security Council, BRICS, SCO and the G20.

On BRICS, crucially, Lavrov confirmed that “over a dozen countries” are lining up for membership, including Iran: “We expect the work on coordinating the criteria and principles that should underlie BRICS expansion to not take much time”.

But first, the five members need to analyze the ground-breaking repercussions of an expanded BRICS+.

Once again: contrast. What is the EU’s “response” to these developments? Coming up with yet another sanctions package against Iran, targeting officials and entities “connected with security affairs” as well as companies, for their alleged “violence and repressions”.

“Diplomacy”, collective West-style, barely registers as bullying.

Back to the real economy – as in the gas front – the national interests of Russia, Iran and Turkiye are increasingly intertwined; and that is bound to influence developments in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, and will be a key factor to facilitate Erdogan’s re-election next year.

As it stands, Riyadh for all practical purposes has performed a stunning 180-degree maneuver against Washington via OPEC+. That may signify, even in a twisted way, the onset of a process of unification of Arab interests, guided by Moscow.

Stranger things have happened in modern history. Now appears to be the time for the Arab world to be finally ready to join the Quad that really matters: Russia, India, China, and Iran.

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/russia-india-china-iran-the-quad-that-really-matters/

Russian consortium Uralchem sells fertilizers to Brazil for yuan currency, 11.23.2022.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The Russian Uralchem consortium, one of the world's leading producers of fertilizers, already sells its products to Brazil for yuan, the company's President Dmitry Mazepin said.

"Lately we learned not to make payments in euro and dollar. For example, we already sell fertilizers for yuan to Brazil," Mazepin said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to Mazepin, Russian fertilizer exporters face difficulties related to charter contracts, marine insurance and making payments.

"We hope that one day the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] will introduce their own currency or start using national currencies so that we can use rubles," he added.

The willingness of developing countries to pay in yuan, he continued, is due to the fact that this currency currently has the greatest liquidity. The Uralchem company is the second in the world and the first in Russia in the production of ammonium nitrate.

At the same time, Russia is ready to expand work on supplying fertilizers to the world market "with all partners without any exceptions," Mazepin said.

He praised the work of the company, stating that it continues to operate "despite the artificial obstacles created by some countries." In addition, he called the blocking of supplies of Russian fertilizers to countries in need unacceptable.

"They are blocked, even free supplies. It is absolutely unacceptable. But that's what happens," he stressed.

In addition, he stressed the importance of protecting the interests of Russian farmers, supporting partners, as well as providing assistance to developing countries, primarily African countries. In turn, Mazepin reported that more than 260,000 tons of Uralchem fertilizers were blocked at the ports of Estonia, Latvia, Belgium and the Netherlands.

The Russian president assured that he maintains contact with the office of UN Secretary General António Guterres on the unblocking of fertilizers, and approved Mazepin's initiative to request assistance from the United Nations and the African Union to authorize supplies.

"I will give the respective order to all our colleagues to provide the necessary help," he stressed.

Putin also spoke in favor of including the resumption of ammonia supplies through Odessa in the food pact, according to the note on the Kremlin's website.

"I am not against" this initiative, Putin said in a conversation with Mazepin.

He stressed that the supplies of this colorless gas, used for the production of fertilizers, will benefit all participants of this pact.

Mazepin recalled that according to the food pact, reached in July this year, the UN should support the unblocking of a pipeline that is used to supply ammonia from the Russian city of Tolyatti to the ports of Odessa and its subsequent shipment to other states.

However, he indicated, the delivery of this product continues not to resume despite the extension of the food pact on November 17. In this context, he called on the president to facilitate the export of Russian ammonia to and from the port of Odessa.

In mid-November, the UN World Food Program chartered the first ship with 260,000 tons of Russian fertilizers on board for African countries. It is scheduled to depart the Netherlands the week of November 21.

Yandex Translate from Spanish

https://sputniknews.lat/20221123/la-rusa-uralchem-vende-los-fertilizantes-a-brasil-por-yuanes-1132797739.html

Russia agrees to exchange BRICS presidency with Brazil in 2024, 01.24.2023.

The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that it will assume the presidency of the BRICS, a group that brings together Brazil, India, China and South Africa, in 2024, at the request of the Latin American nation. The confirmation was given on Tuesday (24).

Brazil proposed that Russia assume these functions in 2024, and Brazil, in turn, in 2025 (instead of 2025 and 2024, respectively).

"In 2019, Brazil officially asked Russia to change the order of BRICS presidencies as an exception, in connection with Brasilia's plans to lead the G20 in 2024. Of course, we responded positively to the request of the Brazilian partners. The agreement received the support of the other members of the five countries and was secured through the exchange of diplomatic notes," the ministry said.

Last Sunday (22), South Africa said it expects Putin at the 1st BRICS summit in person post-pandemic, in August.

The South African ambassador to Moscow, Mzuvukil Maketuk, stressed: "We will definitely send him an invitation and wait for him".

The diplomat said that the venue of the summit has not yet been decided, but the meeting of the group's leaders could take place in one of the country's four largest cities: Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban or Pretoria.

This will be the first face-to-face meeting of the BRICS after the start of the pandemic.

The BRICS brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and was founded in 2009 with the aim of expanding economic ties between the countries, in parallel with negotiations and alliances promoted by the West.

Currently, several countries have already expressed interest in joining the economic group, such as Argentina, Iran and Algeria.

South Africa won the BRICS presidency from China earlier this year, remaining until the end of 2023.

Yandex Translate from Portuguese

https://sputniknewsbrasil.com.br/20230124/russia-concorda-em-trocar-a-presidencia-do-brics-com-o-brasil-em-2024-27151800.html

Lavrov: BRICS Mulling Own Currency, by Andrei Dergalin for SputnikNews. 01.25.2023.
The matter is expected to be discussed at the bloc's upcoming summit in South Africa in August.

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa may soon explore the possibility of creating their own currency within the framework of BRICS, an informal economic bloc comprised of these countries.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov raised the possibility during a visit to Angola, as he delivered a statement following a meeting with Angolan President Joao Lourenco.

Lavrov explained that the currency is needed given that the mechanisms created and promoted by the West – such as the inviolability of property, the presumption of innocence, fair competition and globalization – can be trampled upon at any time.

“Serious, self-respecting countries are perfectly aware of what is at stake,” Lavrov said.
This is why, the Russian foreign minister continued, there is talk among the countries from the BRICS and the CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) about establishing their own new currencies within the frameworks of these blocs.

“This matter, for example, will definitely be discussed at the BRICS summit that is going to take place in South Africa in August,” Lavrov said, adding that the high-ranking guests from African nations invited to that summit include President Lourenco.

https://sputniknews.com/20230125/lavrov-brics-mulling-own-currency-1106693342.html

How is that going to work?

These are all states with 'developing' economies but wildly different ones, with completely different circumstances in reserves, inflation and so on. Pinning a single currency on all of them will restrict everyone's flexibility with monetary policy

But of course if it's an additional currency exchangeable with all the national ones, that's designed expressly to make mutual trade more convenient - then that could be an idea.

Why is Dollar System Collapse Inevitable Amid Creation of BRICS Currency?, by Oleg Burunov for SputnikNews. 01.30.2023.

On Sunday, Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene warned that the US dollar may cease to be the world's currency as a result of the Ukrainian conflict, also arguing that Russia managed to prove that it doesn't need the greenbacks in order to successfully develop economy.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last week that BRICS members are working to boost payments in national currencies over what he described as unreliable mechanisms of the dollar system.

The creation of a BRICS currency is “inevitable” process because the group’s member states “are interested in reducing their exposure to the US dollar and in internationalizing their currencies,” Gal Luft, director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, has told Sputnik.

BRICS May Create 'Gold-Backed' Currency

He suggested that if created, such a currency could be “gold-backed” and that it will be China, Russia and South Africa who could create a Gold-Standard 2.0 architecture”.

According to Luft, this architecture will be “appealing to many Global South countries as alternative to the fiat dollar system which allows the US not only to sanction and coerce them but also to enrich itself at their expense.”

Touching upon possible challenges the BRICS currency may face, he argued that “the US and other incumbent powers served by the current [dollar] system like the UK and the EU will not welcome the new kid in the block and will try to convince the less-ideological BRICS members, mostly India, that the move is too destabilizing.”

Luft stressed that when it comes to the dollar system, it is “dependent on the Fed decisions that serve first and foremost the interests of the American people and their elected officials, not taking into account the interests of the world’s poor.”

“To the contrary, US’ exorbitant privilege allows it to borrow unlimited amounts in order to finance its ballooning deficits while poor countries are struggling to fund their own”, the analyst added.

Luft’s optimism about a BRICS currency was echoed by Ashraf Patel, senior research associate with the Institute for Global Dialogue and Member of the South Africa BRICS Think Tank Network.

He told Sputnik that the past few years have seen BRICS nations make “steady progress regarding the creation of a new currency.”

“Naturally this is a huge systemic change and in an emerging multipolar world, such initiatives are possible as the BRICS groups grows, with many anchor nations in the Developing South expressing interest in joining BRICS group.”

BRICS 'Special Cloud Platform'

Patel added that as part of “the drive to establish a common system for retail payments and transactions between the member countries,” the BRICS members are creating “a single payment system, BRICS Pay.”

“In the near future, these countries plan to introduce a special cloud platform, which will connect their national payment systems. An online wallet will be developed with access to these payment systems, as well as a mobile application similar to Apple Pay, which can be installed on smartphones for purchases in any of the five BRICS countries, regardless of which currency the payment and the money in the account of the buyer are denominated in,” he said.

According to Patel, creating BRICS currency is “one step of the long term diversification of currency in the international trade-finance system in that long road towards ‘diluting the dollars’ power in global trade.”

The remarks followed Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene arguing on Sunday that despite harsh sanctions, Russia had managed to prove it doesn’t need the US dollar to successfully develop trade as she referred to the ongoing Russian special military operation in Ukraine.

In a series of tweets, Greene slammed “the US proxy war with Russia” in Ukraine”, which she claimed would “continue to hurt” America, “draining its resources and driving inflation.”

“It could also result in the dollar no longer being the world’s currency. Because of our own arrogance and ‘fight to save democracy’ in non-NATO Ukraine, heavily sanctioned Russia is proving to the world that they don’t need the US dollar or friendship to trade and thrive,” the congresswoman pointed out.

The statement was preceded by Russian President Vladimir Putin telling the BRICS Business Forum last year that the five major emerging economies within the group (Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa) should establish an international reserve system based on a basket of BRICS currencies.

According to him, although it may take years for the group to create the monetary system, the final result is likely to be an equilibrium between the competing the dollar-based system and the BRICS currency basket.

In 2021, Putin pointed to the importance of Russia ditching the dollar in his decree on Russia’s updated National Security Strategy. The Russian president underscored that ensuring the country's economic security is only possible with the reduction in the use of the dollar in Russia's foreign trade transactions.

Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that Washington's sanctions policy undermines confidence in the dollar, reduces national reserves investment in the US public debt, and contributes to increasing the volume of foreign trade in rubles and other currencies. Washington and its allies slapped packages of sanction on Russia shortly after it launched a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

https://sputniknews.com/20230130/why-is-dollar-system-collapse-inevitable-amid-creation-of-brics-currency-1106818828.html

https://twitter.com/mazzenilsson/status/1638963751612215302/photo/1

Proposed BRICS expansion

See post above no.159...

If and when Lula darling Celso Amorim's Brazil folds over to the Collective West camp, then Moscow and Beijing should attract both Mexico and Argentina to BRICS.

Zimbabwe has also since expressed its interest

And crucially - Mexico

If and when Lula darling Celso Amorim's Brazil folds over to the Collective West camp,

Yet there seems to be a consensus among the Brazilian elites, to move forward with BRICS integration. Lula is advancing it, but his predecessor who he was competing with, the pro-Trump Bolsonaro, was also doing the same thing, and making deals with Russia for cheap fertilizer on the eve of the war in the Ukraine

then Moscow and Beijing should attract both Mexico and Argentina to BRICS.

Doesn't look like Mexico will require much persuasion. Argentina is an IMF darling at the moment, but the main thing there is the political will for it.

Sometimes you have children scared of water because of some previous experience, so they need to see other kids having fun in the water before they will dip in their toe.

(Not suggesting for a second that any of these countries are children of course but their previous experience along of course with threats from the west of what will happen if they do anything with Russia or China and it is not an easy decision to just make cold.)

"The President of Brazil refused to go to Ukraine and the Russian Federation until the prerequisites for peace appeared"

There's a famous saying in Brazil coming from the traditionally sound political atmosphere in the state of Minas Gerais which states that it is through talks and mutual dialogue that you solve critical problems.
This is actual now when Lula is rejecting participation in the next SPIEF sacrificing an excellent opportunity to talk things over on a peaceful outcome to the Ukrainian dilemma with President Vladimir Putin in such a prestigious scenario.
Otherwise, the case presents itself in a boorish form.

Instead of BRICS, GAPP - Global and Peaceful Pack of countries.

flamming_python wrote:How is that going to work?

These are all states with 'developing' economies but wildly different ones, with completely different circumstances in reserves, inflation and so on. Pinning a single currency on all of them will restrict everyone's flexibility with monetary policy

But of course if it's an additional currency exchangeable with all the national ones, that's designed expressly to make mutual trade more convenient - then that could be an idea.

Let's try to assume:
First of all, it will be a single currency issuance center, represented by the investment development Bank, which will replace the IMF. As a result, investments within BRICS++ should become more accessible and generate an alternative to the Bretton Woods system of capital reproduction, which will be based not on financial capital, but on industrial capital. Due to the industrialization of the BRICS++ block, it is possible to maintain sustainable economic growth in the range of about 15% per year for a period of more than 50 years for all BRICS++ participants.

These are all states with 'developing' economies but wildly different ones, with completely different circumstances in reserves, inflation and so on. Pinning a single currency on all of them will restrict everyone's flexibility with monetary policy

They can create a new BRICS currency specially for the purpose of trade... someone actually suggested calling it the Rs, because of the Russian Ruble, the South African Rand, the Chinese Renminbi, the Indian Rupee, and the Brazilian Real... So they could call it the fiveRs and put famous people from all five original countries on the bigger notes and add faces to coins as new countries join.

No country uses it as a domestic currency but use it for trade and have a trade rate for national currencies and gold for the new currency.

Pepe Escobar: US Attempts ’Divide and Conquer’ Strategy Against BRICS, Sputnikglobe.com. 06.12.2023.

Something extraordinary, at least on the surface, happened on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month - a somewhat pompous affair self-described as “Asia’s premier defence summit”.

Intel heads of 24 nations met in de facto semi-secrecy, because in the end the event was duly leaked (Western spin qualified it as an “informal” meeting).

Among the 24, the real deal comprised the US and all the other Five Eyes, plus representatives of two BRICS members, China and India. All the others were not identified with certainty or preferred to remain anonymous - presumably due to their “hanger on” status.

Crucially, key BRICS member Russia was not represented.
Reuters swore the information about the not-so-secret gathering came from five different - unnamed – sources.  A Southeast Asian diplomat independently confirmed the presence of the Five Eyes, China, India and Singapore – and that was it. The de facto sponsor of the meeting was Singapore’s Ministry of Defence.

Things gets curioser and curioser when we examine the leak a bit closer. So many sources basically corroborating each other point to a concerted spin – practically on an official level. If this was meant to be really secret, as in the past, that would have been the case, with every involved lip conveniently sealed. So why leak it?

Washington’s Divide and Conquer Strategy.

Such spy vs. spy meetings, historically, take ages to prepare, especially one involving 24 nations and featuring superpower rivals US and China. That implies countless qualified sherpas redacting documents; very complicated logistics; an ultra-secure environment; and an extremely detailed script covering every intervention.

All of that must have been discussed in excruciating detail for months, side by side with putting together the larger agenda for the Shangri-La Dialogue: and all the while there were no leaks.

And then what was leaked, after the meeting, was just that it happened. With only selected participating players fully identified. There’s absolutely nothing on substance.

It beggars belief that the Five Eyes would openly discuss Western security fears and/or procedures openly with the Chinese, not to mention the other minor hangers-on. After all the Beijing leadership is fully aware the US-UK is engaged in full hybrid war against China, with the Five Eyes and containment mechanisms such as Quad and AUKUS in tow.

The main reason for the leak is a dead giveaway when we see what US Think Tankland is spinning: the US was talking security with China and India behind Russia’s back. Translation: the US is trying to undermine the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) from the inside.

This is purely wishful thinking – because no one knows anything about the substance of the discussions. The meat of the matter was not leaked on purpose.

The dead giveaway about the leak being engineered to undermine the BRICS – at least in the Western public sphere – would have to come from the usual suspects themselves: US think tanks, inserted in what the indispensable Ray McGovern, a former CIA analyst, christened as MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think Tank complex).

The chairman of the Eurasia Group laid it all out in detail: US foreign policy needs essentially to deploy the whole arsenal of Hybrid War techniques to seduce, coerce or subdue 6 so-called “swing states” in the geopolitical arena: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkiye.

It’s no accident three of these are BRICS members (Brazil, India, South Africa) and the other three (Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye) are prime candidates to the inevitable expansion, BRICS+, already being discussed and about to get started during the upcoming BRICS summit in August in South Africa.

The American tactics remain predictable: classic Divide and Rule; attempts to undermine BRICS from the inside via P.R. operations and a vast 5th brigade; and if all goes wrong, attempts at color revolution and regime change.

Recently, the tactics miserably failed against both Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, and are also failing in terms of provoking mischief within the key RICs trio (Russia-India-China).

Growing Signs of US Desperation

The leak was, once again, shadow play: an extra layer of fog of war – and related to an ongoing war. It’s quite intriguing the “secret” gambit took place right before the green light from the usual suspects for Kiev to bomb the Kakhovskaya dam, and the de facto start of the spun-to-death Ukrainian “counter offensive.”

To have DNI head Avril Haines and her Beijing counterpart Chen Wixin discussing this on the same table is as far-fetched as it comes.

A more realistic scenario would have China and India on the same table discussing their intractable border issues. But they don’t need to go to Singapore to do that; they do it in the framework of the SCO, of which both are members, with Russia playing a mediator role.

US Think Tankland/MICIMATT spinning, predictably masquerading as political analysis, never reaches beyond the level of guesswork: they assume that China was discussing security with the superpower that really matters – the US – while ditching their comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia.

Nonsense strikes again: top security issues concerning both are discussed at the highest level, for instance during the recent visit to Moscow by China’s Minister of Defense Li Shangfu, complete with a personal encounter with Putin.

Even without any input on the substance of the meeting, it’s fair to consider all about the leak that points to Ukraine.

The American intel narrative would go something like this: we need an exit strategy, badly, immediately. So let’s get Chinese intel to convince the Russians to freeze the battlefield as it stands – a ceasefire of sorts. Then we can re-weaponize Kiev and have another go at it later on.

Anyone following Russia-China high-level interaction these past few months knows this is – once again - nonsense. Beijing may have its 12-point plan for peace – which Moscow respects. But facts on the ground, imposed by US/NATO hubris, have engineered a major game-changer.

And then there’s the really fundamental question: when and how Russia will decide to cross the Dnepr. Only after that Moscow will be willing to discuss any possible “peace”, and only under its own terms.

At the same time, both Moscow and Beijing are fully aware that the proxy US/NATO war in Ukraine against Russia is a rehearsal inbuilt in the ongoing Chronicle of a War Announced: the real one, up next, against China, with Taiwan as pretext.

To believe that Chinese intel would willingly bend to the whims of the Five Eyes because they feel China is in a precarious geopolitical position does not even qualify as laughable. And yet that’s also inbuilt in US Think Thankland spin.

It’s as laughable as the Beltway narrative, imposed 24/7, of “China threatening war over Taiwan” when it’s the Hegemon that is using Taiwan as a remixed Ukraine, forcing Beijing to lose its Taoist patience.

So in the end what really stands out in this spy vs. spy saga? Not much. Except yet another whiff of Hegemon desperation.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20230612/pepe-escobar-us-attempts-divide-and-conquer-strategy-against-brics-1111073623.html