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65 posters

    Is Russia safe from F-22 and Β-2?

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    victor7


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    Post  victor7 Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:43 am

    The counter to non radar defenses is soon coming though: Hypersonic PGMs which are also Stealth. Guess the game of measures and counter measures will keep going on.

    However, for now optical/irst based point defenses for the terminal stage of PGMs is the weapon sought, especially if it can be cheap, mobile and resistant to jamming. Tor/Pantsir are there but not cheap. If a country is not in NATO crosshairs and its immediate enemies do not possess PGMs based air force mechanisms then probably they can bypass point defense in wide range deployment if they cannot afford them. Even Russia will only be having 200 Pantsirs by 2020s.

    Guess detecting stealth at long distances and firing a long range successful missile is ever so important. This will kill off the PGMs and their stealthy taxi ride.
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    Post  GarryB Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:22 am

    It seems US radar tech is really advanced to that of Russian and Chinese. Russians have to find a way to increase the IRST ranges in parallel to radar tech upgrades.

    That is the mistake the US makes...

    Just because the Russians have developed IRST technology and long range IR guided missiles to go with them doesn't mean they will ignore advances in radar technology.

    The Russians have invested a lot of money into AESA technology, the results of which will likely enter service over the next decade or so, but if it is clear that the AESA in the F-18 can detect F-22s then the AESA in the Mig-35 and the PAK FA should also be able to do the same.

    The S-400 uses a huge AESA BTW...

    I'm sure no one here think, that AA guns could replace long range or medium range or any other SAM in IADS.

    Agreed, but I think to be viable these guns need a mix of guns and missiles to maximise performance and to compliment the features of the gun in terms of minimum range engagement low cost of shells etc.

    If you are going to spend a fortune on sensors and optics then having the combination of range and accuracy of a missile with the blunt force trauma of shells would work best.

    The other alternative is to make them multipurpose guns for direct fire support and AA defence... perhaps a twin 57mm or twin 45mm guns in a turret with vertically mounted 9M100 Morfei IIR lock on after launch missiles with a two way datalink so you can designate targets and launch missiles that get locks while on their way to the targets...

    Later EM guns with enormous increases in muzzle velocities while reducing the ammo to projectiles without rather large propellent shell cases attached will make the vehicle safer in terms of flammable content and greatly increase the amount of on board ammo it can carry...
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    Post  GarryB Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:28 am

    The counter to non radar defenses is soon coming though: Hypersonic PGMs which are also Stealth.

    Hypersonic means easy long range detection in IR, and if the defences are non radar then stealth is meaningless.

    Even Russia will only be having 200 Pantsirs by 2020s.

    We already established the chance of a NATO attack on Russia is low.

    Besides in addition to Pantsir Russia also has enormous numbers of other systems from the Igla-S, through the new MANPADS called Verba, TOR, BUK, Vityaz, Morfei, and S-400s and S-500s, plus rumours of other systems using laser beam riding guidance perhaps based on SOSNA...

    In fact that would be a good little system... the trailer mounted SOSNA-R, which has 4 ready to launch laser guided two stage missiles with a range of 8km and a single 2A38M twin barrel 30mm cannon firing 2,500rpm.
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    Post  victor7 Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:42 am

    We already established the chance of a NATO attack on Russia is low.

    Chances are low but situations can change very quickly.

    Nukes and ICBMs are only parity match for Russia vrs NATO at this moment.

    Russia has become a fairly characteristics regional power now. But who wants to be superpower when variables do not support the efforts. USSR was only military superpower and that too by extension of resources from other sections of the society.

    Air Force vise US is breathing down Russia's neck. Infact with only 11 Su-35s in inventory, it can be a total slaughter when F22s and F35s are involved.

    S400 detecting stealth at 60 km distance is not impressive, far from safe.

    End of it all, nukes, icmbs, good diplomacy should be further strengthened and may be steal a march in some other exotic area of sciences which bring in force multipliers. dunno

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    Post  GarryB Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:41 pm

    Air Force vise US is breathing down Russia's neck. Infact with only 11 Su-35s in inventory, it can be a total slaughter when F22s and F35s are involved.

    As I have said several times before if there is a conflict between the US and Russia then the result of conventional weapons like tanks and fighter aircraft will be irrelevant.

    There are no Su-35s in service... by the end of this year they will deliver the first Su-35s to the Russian AF and they will go to the training centre at Lipzig (spelling) where they will create flying manuals and field support manuals and tactics for teh rest of the AF to use to operate these new aircraft.

    Next year they will likely deliver another 6 or so and then the following year they will likely make 12 and then in 2015 they will likely make 24 to make 48 delivered by 2015 and hopefully by then they will have a much larger order for the Russian AF to fill and also by then they will be making PAK FA fighters.

    Of course no more F-22s will be made, and if they are not grounded they will almost certainly still be based in the US.

    The F-35 might have entered mass production by the time the Russians start making the PAKFA, but we can't be sure... with the financial problems within NATO it is still possible for the whole program to collapse...


    S400 detecting stealth at 60 km distance is not impressive, far from safe.

    Still really don't know where you got that figure of 60km from but I doubt it is accurate.

    BTW if you got it from Auspower you might want to check it isn't 60NM which would be about 120km BTW.

    End of it all, nukes, icmbs, good diplomacy should be further strengthened and may be steal a march in some other exotic area of sciences which bring in force multipliers.

    The Russians are in the middle of a program to upgrade their conventional military strength, they don't need the capacity to fight NATO, they just need the power to serious fk them up. They already have that with a range of nuclear weapons both strategic and tactical. I personally think that to deal with most of NATO that a wider range of tactical nuclear devices is cheaper and easier to buy and maintain but can also see the sense in updating and restructuring the conventional forces as they are more flexible and useful than the blunt trauma of a nuke.
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    Post  ahmedfire Wed Mar 14, 2012 9:56 pm


    Is Russia safe from F-22 and Β-2? - Page 7 A6203aee6cc9e77c640eadd5d5d79579a8c5cf60_big

    Is American Air Power on the Verge of Collapse?

    The Australian think-tank, Air Power Australia (APA), has released another in their series of techno-strategy papers, this time analysing the advancements in Russian-built Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS) (http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2009-02.html), and what it means in global strategic terms for the Americans. The APA report is direct and unequivocal – Russian radar and missiles have improved to the point where the US fleet of F-15s, F-16s and F/A-18s, as well as the planned Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), are not capable of surviving against these systems and unless the Americans build another four hundred-plus F-22s, they will lose the strategic advantage they have held since the end of the Cold War.

    The result will be nations such as China, Iran and Venezuela thumbing their noses at the Americans, knowing that no President will commit to using force in the knowledge that hundreds of jets and pilots would be lost.

    The paper comes a month after APA savaged the JSF (http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2009-01.html). APA’s Dr. Carlo Kopp, who completed his PhD in radar engineering, simulated the radar signature of the F-35 and showed exactly how vulnerable it will be to the Russian radar systems and missiles that have emerged since the specification for the JSF was drafted over a decade ago. Lockheed-Martin has not publicly disputed Kopp’s findings yet.

    The APA IADS study confirms, in tedious detail, what many of us have suspected or known for some time and what U.S. Air Force generals said repeatedly before being forcefully muzzled by the Bush Administration. That is the simple fact that the globalised economy has given Russian radar and missile designers the technology to close the gap with the US and EU designers in most areas which matter. The Russians have used this technology to digitize many Cold War missile and radar designs, and vastly improve post-Cold War designs. The new S-400 has no equivalent in the West, having outstripped and outgrown the Patriot.

    The Russians obviously spent a lot of time thinking about how the Americans busted the Iraqi IADS in 1991 and the Serbian IADS in 1999. Like chess players, they looked at what the Americans used, where they were going, and figured out how to checkmate the mighty US Air Force.

    Russian industry is now building and marketing short-range missile systems specifically built to shoot down American HARM anti-radar missiles and cruise missiles. They are also putting electronic countermeasures and decoys on their radars to prevent missiles and smart bombs from hitting them. Further, the Russians are currently testing a 400 km range missile, the 40N6, so they can shoot down or drive off American jamming aircraft like the Prowler, Growler and Compass Call. These same missiles can be used to keep the Rivet Joint and AWACS electronic reconnaissance systems out of useful range.

    In strategic terms, the Americans are now in real trouble. China is fielding around 500 Russian Flankers and the latest Russian IADS. Iran is fielding the SA-20, and already has the SA-5, upgraded Chinese SA-2s and, some people claim, the HQ-9s – cloned SA-20s. Further, the US aerial tanker fleet is 40-years-old, and the fighter fleet was mostly built twenty-five years ago – many of the F-15s are now older than the pilots flying them. Iraq and Afghanistan have bankrupted the U.S. defence budget and now Wall Street has bankrupted the U.S. economy.

    The only modern and credible fighter the Americans have is the F-22, and it is the only way they can recapitalise their collapsing fighter fleet in the next decade, with an aircraft which can actually survive the first day of an air war. The F-35 is not an F-22 and can never become an F-22. The F-35 is, first and foremost, an export fighter program.

    We should not mislead ourselves about the seriousness of this matter. Leading American analyst Dr. Richard Hallion, in a recent interview commented: “Today, if NATO wanted to establish an air exclusion zone over Georgia, it could not do so with any aircraft other than the 5th Generation F-22 Raptor...”.

    Who is most to blame for American air power now teetering on the edge of collapse?

    Clearly it has been the Bush Administration, who considered the EU fighter industry a more important enemy to kill than exported Russian Sukhoi fighters and Almaz SAM systems. Rather than sticking with the conservative US Air Force plan for 700+ F-22s, they chopped the number down to 180 aircraft. Why? To force every American service and every American ally to buy into the F-35 monopoly.
    Where does this leave us Europeans? We have, since the start of the Cold War, depended on the Americans to provide the fighter top cover, the SAM suppression and the standoff radar jamming none of us were prepared to fund. We, much like the Americans, overindulged in the peace dividend and downsized several times over.
    The mighty collective NATO air forces are now a pale shadow of what they were in 1989.

    If the Obama Administration decides to follow the Bush Administration policy to terminate F-22 production, the strategic consequences will be just as grave for America’s NATO allies as they will be for America.

    http://defpro.com/daily/details/236/

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    Post  ahmedfire Wed Mar 14, 2012 10:01 pm


    Aguy named planeman in militaryphotos forum made avery informative thread ,it's name was "Defending Mother Russia " , i advise to search and read it .
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    victor7


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    Post  victor7 Thu Mar 15, 2012 12:28 am

    After USAF which is the second largest and capable air force in the world?
    It is the US Navy. That should give a good reason for US air force to take a breather. The lead that they have is so vast that slight slow down or even decline won't hurt much.

    Vrs Russia their F22s/F35s lose meaning after nuke attack on the base. Vrs rest of the world or rather non-allied world, USAF can win hands down.

    The Russian doctrine is more to do with Air Defense vrs American which is Air Offense. No wonder, other than Washington DC, US does not have SAMs on duty for protection. In the air defense area, I think Russia is still confortable. Take out half a dozen US satellites and their GPS guided bombs go on extended holidays.

    However, Russia has 3 years of time before BMDs start to show up near its western borders and sea coasts. These have to be cancelled out otherwise Russian nuclear deterrent will be 'mostly' meaningless i.e. second strike capability vastly neutralized.

    Wonder Russia should start to put missiles in Cuba, even covertly as these days cruise missiles are merely the size of a shipping container. No need to have missile crisis all over again, unless US can penetrate Cuban intelligence to find them out.
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    Post  GarryB Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:17 am

    The mighty collective NATO air forces are now a pale shadow of what they were in 1989.

    This is just silly.

    In 1989 NATO was 16 nations against the Whole Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact.

    Now NATO includes most of the Warsaw Pact and parts of the former Soviet Union.

    NATO might have reduced spending a little, though the Americans certainly only increased it, but the Russians went through about 3 economic collapses.

    Vrs Russia their F22s/F35s lose meaning after nuke attack on the base. Vrs rest of the world or rather non-allied world, USAF can win hands down.

    Did the USAF win in Somalia? How about Vietnam? Kosovo perhaps?

    I think you overestimate the capability of air power.

    However, Russia has 3 years of time before BMDs start to show up near its western borders and sea coasts. These have to be cancelled out otherwise Russian nuclear deterrent will be 'mostly' meaningless i.e. second strike capability vastly neutralized.

    There is no evidence at all that the US ABM system has any capability against the Russian strategic nuclear deterrent.

    Its ability to deal with decoys is zero because it deals with objects in space, so a balloon will move exactly the same as a warhead covered with a balloon and will have the same radar and thermal signature...

    Wonder Russia should start to put missiles in Cuba, even covertly as these days cruise missiles are merely the size of a shipping container. No need to have missile crisis all over again, unless US can penetrate Cuban intelligence to find them out.

    Russia is bound by an agreement signed after the Cuban missile crisis not to base nuclear weapons in Cuba, but the Kh-101 armed with a conventional warhead with a range of 5,000km could be based there in large numbers perfectly legally...
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    Post  victor7 Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:01 am



    http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/4642
    I think you overestimate the capability of air power.

    http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/4642

    The link above is going to give much boost to winning wars from airpower alone. Especially items #6, 7 and 8. Once air superiority is in place, rest is a matter of good surveillance, it seems.
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    Post  GarryB Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:59 am

    Call me Mr Cynical but Air Power has been promising to make war clean for decades and it simply has not delivered.

    Don't you get it yet?

    For every expensive capability there is a cheap countermeasure....

    For instance... expensive Abrams tank... cheap 500kg IED.

    Sneaky technology might be able to see through walls to see if there are people inside, but it wont tell them who those people are.

    I mean lets face it, they can't even tell an attempt to shoot them down from a wedding celebration at the moment.
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    Post  victor7 Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:08 am

    For instance... expensive Abrams tank... cheap 500kg IED.

    I think DARPA is very hard at work to find and blow up the IEDs from a distance of a mile or so. Experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan has taught US, that IEDs are more lethal than anyother arsenal in the guerrilla inventory.

    Given the tech around the corner from the above stratrisk link. It might end up being a very boring world where Big Brother is watching every damn thing. We might end up taking orders from the Robots pretty soon.
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    Post  GarryB Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:17 am

    I think DARPA is very hard at work to find and blow up the IEDs from a distance of a mile or so.

    Well they are expert at blowing them up when they hit them, blowing them up from 1.6km is a nice dream that is yet to be realised... a bit like Star Wars really.

    Experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan has taught US, that IEDs are more lethal than anyother arsenal in the guerrilla inventory.

    Except this experience wouldn't apply to somewhere like Iran where they make their own ATGMs and MANPADS and have numbers on their side.

    IEDs are dangerous... the west should know because most of the Talebans training came from the west via training of the Muj in the 1980s. The cannon fodder of the 1980s are the commanders of the 2010s.

    Given the tech around the corner from the above stratrisk link. It might end up being a very boring world where Big Brother is watching every damn thing. We might end up taking orders from the Robots pretty soon.

    And how far away will anarchist technology be... portable EMP guns that disable electronics, shielding equipment and countermeasures.

    Robots are a long way from taking over, until you have a robot that can mine raw materials and manage the process from raw metal ore to finished robot components then they will need humans.
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    Post  victor7 Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:22 pm

    And how far away will anarchist technology be... portable EMP guns that disable electronics, shielding equipment and countermeasures.

    Have Gun Will Travel...........
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    Post  Mindstorm Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:06 am


    And how far away will anarchist technology be... portable EMP guns that disable electronics, shielding equipment and countermeasures.


    Far away, but...behind us Very Happy Very Happy


    http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070511/65348455.html


    It seem that our victor7 love anything ,even only remotely, linked to "exotic" technology.

    Those type of systems or capabilities ,except in rares instances, never represent the bulk of military capabilities and strength of a nation (rather sometime it is no more than what is commonly called vaporware).

    Moreover for some strange reason (likely the typical "deep" message present in western media ) it is convinced that those type of technologies are mastered or characteristic of western nations.
    GarryB image what would happen if it would discover that the same experimental road that USA attempt today with the ...now discontinued...ABL, was already fully explored and widely surpassed by Soviets more than 25 years ago Very Happy ,or that the technology behind those exotic, "cool", future-like aircraft in force with USAF (such as B-2 F-117 or F-22) was developed in URSS and literally imported in USA .

    It could become a true hero at F-16.net ,instead..... Rolling Eyes
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    Post  victor7 Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:46 am

    future-like aircraft in force with USAF (such as B-2 F-117 or F-22) was developed in URSS and literally imported in USA

    first find a way to DTK a B2 and F22 at 400km range.......until then.........


    no country for old men
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    Post  GarryB Fri Mar 16, 2012 6:29 am

    I am sure a lot of Russians are working on technology to detect F-22s and B-2s at very long ranges... just like a lot of Americans are working on ABM missiles that can begin to be effective against TOPOLs let alone TOPOL-Ms and Yars...
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    Post  victor7 Fri Mar 16, 2012 7:13 am

    Nothing new but worth a read.........


    http://www.docstoc.com/docs/115543547/F22-analysis

    The article also mentions that new Russian AESA radars can detect stealth at 180 NM which is roughly 333 km. Hence the figure of 400km is getting near. cheers
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    Post  Mindstorm Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:15 pm


    victor7 wrote:
    future-like aircraft in force with USAF (such as B-2 F-117 or F-22) was developed in URSS and literally imported in USA

    first find a way to DTK a B2 and F22 at 400km range.......until then.........


    no country for old men


    Detection of a F-22 at ONLY 400 km ? Razz Razz Razz

    Any modern, advanced OTH radar could detect an aircraft with a RCS -in X band- some order of magnitude smaller than an F-22 at literally several THOUSANDS of kilometers of distance, from its same take off Laughing Laughing Laughing

    If you ,instead, talk of tracking a similar target, a modern VHF radars ,some of which (like the new generation of Russian ones fully mobile ,with a multispectral AESA radars ) are not only capable to track similar aerodynamic "VLO" ....at least in X band....targets at virtually maximum range - like a legacy aircraft in theirs same class- but also to provide a very, very robust missile in-flight guidance for SAM against them.

    If you want a picture of the REAL capabilities of "stealth" fighter/strike aircraft like F-22/F-35 (in opposition to the comical metropolitan legends and low level disinformation data circulating freely in public media) is sufficient to ear the voices of the American critics of those type of platforms , who obviously don't have any reason and don't feel themselves committed to "cover" with false data and Hollywwod-like claims ,moreover totally irreconcilable with Physical reality, those type of aircraft ; two of those voice are Winslow T. Wheeler and Pierre M. Sprey , those are some of theirs assertion on the subject :


    "Far from an ability to fly anywhere “unseen,” stealth limits the ability of some radars to detect the F-35 at some angles to lesser distances. In the presence of some radar types, some of them quite old designs, stealth aircraft can be detected (“seen”) routinely. At angles other than nose-on or around the “waterline,” stealth aircraft can have a significantly larger radar return than the hummingbird and insect sized returns that are typically described.
    The above assumes the stealth characteristic performs as designed, but that is usually not the case. My work at the U.S. Government Accountability Office on stealth systems made it clear to me that not a single U.S. stealth aircraft had lived up to its original detectability promises, and the F-35 looks to be no exception."



    ("F-35 Testimony to Canada's House of Commons")

    http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=4636&StartRow=1&ListRows=10&appendURL=&Orderby=D.DateLastUpdated&ProgramID=37&from_page=index.cfm



    "The Air Force, Lockheed, and their congressional boosters tout the F-22 as the silver bullet of air combat. The F-22's so-called stealth may hurt more than it helps. In truth, against short wavelength radars, the F-22 is hard to detect only over a very narrow band of viewing angles. Worse, there are thousands of existing long range, long wavelength radars that can detect the F-22 from several hundred miles away at all angles."


    ("Stop the F-22 Now")

    http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=4527



    Russia on its side ,since several years by now, don't even consider aerodynamic targets -VLO or not with theirs ECM and corollary assets- as a noteworthy strategic menace anymore ; all attention today is put ,instead, in the neutralization of the real high priority menaces of modern era conflicts :

    1) ballistic missiles (by far the most devastating and difficult to defend against)
    2)large scale saturation stand-off cruise missile attacks .
    3) future hypersonic and low orbital strategic menaces



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    Post  medo Fri Mar 16, 2012 11:54 pm

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    Is Russia safe from F-22 and Β-2? - Page 7 0210

    Russian army Kolchuga-M passive detecting system, which could detect and triangulate any airborne emitter on 600+ km distance, so IF F-22 or F-35 don't want to be detected by it, they have to fly in total silence, what means they will also know nothing, what is happening in the air and on the ground. They could only rely on pilot's eyes.
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    Post  victor7 Sat Mar 17, 2012 12:32 am

    Have heard a lot about Kolchuga able to detect birds at a distance. The main question is will it also be able to track and furthermore guide a missile on the target to kill it. DTK is the only objective, mere detection will not help too much.

    Btw, the link above on F22 analysis said that a BVR missile has only 7% chance of hitting its target. Is that true? That is awfully low percentage for expensive missiles.
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    Post  GarryB Sat Mar 17, 2012 6:42 am

    Have heard a lot about Kolchuga able to detect birds at a distance. The main question is will it also be able to track and furthermore guide a missile on the target to kill it. DTK is the only objective, mere detection will not help too much.

    Once it is detected then it can be killed.

    The IAD will calculate its position and look for AD assets in that area to deal with the threat.

    Systems like TOR and Pantsir-S1 and even BUK could engage in optical mode.

    Btw, the link above on F22 analysis said that a BVR missile has only 7% chance of hitting its target. Is that true? That is awfully low percentage for expensive missiles.

    I rather suspect they meant radar homing missiles. An IIR would have a much better chance.... besides there are not going to be more than about 188 F-22s ever and at probably $250 million a pop you can afford to fire a few missiles at it...
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    Austin


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    Post  Austin Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:03 pm

    Airforces Monthly ( April 2012 )


    Is the F-33 still unaffordable ?

    http://www.mediafire.com/?biuclcama86a89a
    GarryB
    GarryB


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    Post  GarryB Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:54 pm

    Btw, the link above on F22 analysis said that a BVR missile has only 7% chance of hitting its target. Is that true? That is awfully low percentage for expensive missiles.

    Actually... 7% is a very high number for the F-22 and I am surprised...

    The chance of an AMRAAM hitting a target taking no evasive manoeuvres, not using countermeasures and in a launch situation where the target is within the normal kill envelope of the missile is 50%, so even just adding manouvers that should halve to 25% for most aircraft that simply change direction and/or speed after the AMRAAM has been launched.

    I would expect a modern fighter manouvering hard should reduce that to 20%,and with a modern capable ESM/ECM system I would expect a range of 5-9% kill probability.
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    Mindstorm


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    Post  Mindstorm Sun Mar 18, 2012 8:48 pm

    Austin wrote:Airforces Monthly ( April 2012 )


    Is the F-33 still unaffordable ?

    http://www.mediafire.com/?biuclcama86a89a



    Thanks for the link Austin Very Happy

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