The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

TR1 wrote:In terms of cruise missiles they have luckily localized production over past several years, so that is not an issue.

You are thinking of the new Klimov plant I think. Their biggest priority right now is the VK-2500 engines...however the process is slow. In 2013 they were supposed to make 50 all Russian Vk2500, they only made 10.
And that is by far not the most numerous engine that Russia buys from Motor-Sich.

There is no way about it, the engine supply from Motor-Sich is irreplaceable for the next several years at least.
I don't think Motor-Sich is going to be happy if the government cuts its order book by such a huge %.

TR1 wrote:Are export customers (or VVS for that matter) going to sit there for the 3-4-5 years that it will take to make up that loss?


In 2012 Motor-Sich delivered around 460 TV3/VK2500 ALONE to Russia. And they have the process smoothed out and working..there is a reason Klimov was content with this "outsourcing" for so many years, it is cheaper to just buy the engines from Ukraine and slap the Klimov sticker on them.  

Customers do not want to pay more than the cheap price the engines come with today. Localizing production costs money.

TR1 wrote:I don't think they will bar sale of M-S engines to Russia.

They are calling Kiev right now explaining to them how idiotic that would be.

It is a huge problem for both sides if it actually happened.
Massive delays and lost contracts potentially for Russia. There simply isn't another source for these engines to keep up with demand.
For Ukraine, death of an industry. There simply is no customer to replace Russia.

Much better if they don't interrupt a lucrative process due to the Crimea situation.

GarryB wrote: sanctions by India would be very self defeating considering about 70% of Indias military uses equipment from Russia or the Soviet Union.

Sujoy wrote:

What the west is now planning to do is to find ways and means to instigate the TATARS in Crimea to break away from Crimea and declare a separate state .

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/land-key-crimeas-tatars-discuss-future-plans-23105054

 UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin assured him he had no intention of making another military move into Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin echoed the UN chief, saying Putin made clear in a March 18 statement that there was not going to be any new Russian move into Ukraine. He accused unnamed countries of "trying to artificially whip up the atmosphere of international crisis."

The new Ukrainian government and the West have voiced concerns about a possible invasion into pro-Russian eastern and southern Ukraine following Moscow's buildup of its troops near the border.

 Ban and Churkin spoke to reporters after the secretary-general briefed the Security Council behind closed doors on his recent talks with Putin in Moscow and Ukraine's leaders in Kiev.

"Some parties were trying to whip up tension - Russian aggression is imminent, or something like that, throwing wild assessments of the presence of our troops allegedly on the border with Ukraine," Churkin said.

"Our forces in Russia are undergoing their usual routine, staying in their barracks or doing some training," he said. "But there is no worry of any Russian initiative against Ukraine."

Churkin said there have been four inspections along the Russia-Ukraine border by about a dozen countries this month - including one by the United States, Germany and Ukraine - "and none of them told us they saw anything particularly disconcerting."

He said Putin told Russia's defense minister on Friday to return Ukraine's military hardware from Crimea, adding "this is not something you do if you plan anything dramatic against this country."

Ban said during his visits to Moscow and Kiev on March 20-21 "emotions were running high ... and tensions have been very highly charged." He said he urged leaders in both countries to de-escalate the situation and engage in direct talks, and called on Ukraine's leaders to address domestic concerns that Russia has.

But the secretary-general said "President Putin ... told me that he had no intention to make any military move."

Churkin said the effort to whip up an international crisis "is not helpful at all." What all parties need to do is help the Ukrainians get out of the crisis in the country, he said.

Churkin said Russia has spelled out its views of what needs to be done to "our international colleagues" and the Ukrainians.

"The armed groups must be disarmed. The radicals must be reined in, and most importantly there must be (a) constitutional process ... and the results of a constitutional assembly must be put to a referendum," Churkin said. Then, there will be a new constitution "where all the regions of the country will be comfortable about where they are, about their rights, and about where their country is going.

Russia has pushed strongly for federalizing Ukraine - giving its regions more autonomy - but Ukraine's interim authorities in Kiev have rejected such a move.

Churkin said the Ukrainians and their Western supporters only want to talk about a presidential election on May 25, which he said would take place "in a situation of political chaos in the country."

"There is no political leader in sight who might be able to unite the country," he said. "All the politicians one can hear about are extremely divisive for the Ukrainian society."

Churkin said Russia is being urged to engage in dialogue and is ready to talk if there's a response to its views of what must be done.

The Ukrainians say they can't hold a constitutional assembly now because there's no one to organize it, so Churkin proposed that the international community help. And he reiterated Russia's call for the establishment of an international contact group that could take on this role.

BERLIN, March 30, /ITAR-TASS/. Contacts between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a situation like the crisis around Ukraine are “worth their weight in gold,” Russian president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday in an interview with Germany’s public-service television broadcaster ZDF.

“Merkel’s role is rather big, taking into account the constructive and rather open relations with Vladimir Putin,” he said. “Since the very beginning of the crisis, the two [leaders\ have been maintaining constant dialogue, and such frequent contacts make it possible at least to bring their positions closer. In such acute situation, such contacts are worth their weight in gold. It is a secret to no one that the positions on the Ukrainian crisis are different but the dialogue is extremely useful and we hope this dialogue will be continued.”

Peskov characterized this dialogue as “constructive on the one hand, but rather difficult on the other hand.” Interaction between state figures, in his words, stems from the interests of their countries, since each of them seeks to defend the positions of his or her state.

When asked whether the Russian president was ready to meet with the German chancellor, Peskov noted, “We do not know as of yet.” “Previous plans provided for contacts in various formats, currently talks are underway at the expert level,” he said, adding that the Russian side wanted to continue the direct dialogue. “As it was said during a meeting with Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser, it is better to speak to each other than to speak about each other,” Peskov stressed.

GarryB wrote:

I am surprised they need to import from these smaller post soviet countries. Why not make them in Russia? Wouldnt it be cheaper to have them in Russia?

If a company is set up in the Ukraine and is already making components how could it possibly be cheaper to set up a new factory in Russia to make these components?

Odds are that that the new factory would be more efficient than the old Soviet era factory being used and fewer people would likely be needed to make a much better quality product but it wont be cheaper until quite a few have been made...


It is the same with computer chips... you don't think they are made in China or Taiwan because they are the only countries that make them? Production in those countries was based on low income work force that could produce quality products cheaply with as few duds as possible.

If it is a strategic resource like a computer chip then domestic production is critical for info security, but for optical lenses or day time cameras... why not buy from the Ukraine... well we know why now.

arpakola wrote:

The role og NGO's .. (call me FEMEN)