Election failure forced Macron to go all-in, by Valeria Verbinina for VZGLYAD. 06.10.2024.
One of the main sensations of the last elections to the European Parliament was the defeat of Emmanuel Macron’s party. What are the reasons for the loss of the French President, why, as the French press puts it, did his rival Jordan Bardell’s “rocket” take off – and how does Macron expect to eventually take revenge, taking a major political risk?
On June 9, elections to the European Parliament were held in European Union countries, including France. Long before him, polls showed that the National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardell was leading by a significant margin. Despite all the efforts of the current authorities, attempts to influence undecided voters and the president’s direct appeal from television screens, various monitoring showed that the opposition far-right party would gain at least 30% of the votes.
“I don’t believe in polls, I believe in voting,” Macron said on the eve of the elections. Perhaps he was referring to historical precedents when respondents said one thing, but in the end other people came to the polls and voted differently than the media predicted. However, already on election day it became clear that the National Rally had broken all historical records, and the final vote count determined that they received 31.37% of the votes and 30 seats in the European Parliament. At the same time, the ruling party showed results more than twice as bad, gaining only 14.6% of the votes. For comparison, in the previous elections in 2019, the National Rally received 23.3%, and the Macronists - 22.4%.
“Our fellow citizens today expressed their desire for change, and also outlined the path to the future,” noted Jordan Bardella, who heads the list of deputies of the National Rally. “The wind of hope has risen across France, and this is just the beginning.”
“The huge gap between the presidential majority and the first opposition party reflects... the clear rejection that society feels towards the policies pursued by Macron and his government. The President of the Republic cannot remain deaf to this message,” Bardella added. After which he publicly proposed to the president to dissolve the country’s National Assembly as no longer expressing the will of the country’s citizens.
Apparently, at that moment, few people believed that the French president would actually take such a step, especially since the last time something similar happened was back in 1997 under Jacques Chirac. However, unexpectedly for everyone, Emmanuel Macron agreed that the dissolution of parliament would be the best way out in the current situation of political impasse.
“I am dissolving the National Assembly,” Macron said in an evening address to citizens. “Soon I will sign a decree on new elections, which will take place on June 30 and July 7.” He explained: “The rise in popularity of nationalists and demagogues is a danger for our people, but also for Europe, it threatens the position of France and Europe in the world... And yes, (the power of) the far right means the impoverishment of the French and the loss of influence of our country.”
The success of the far right in France, where they have traditionally been relegated to the role of nothing more than political bogeymen, however, can be explained very simply. "Purchasing power, insecurity, immigration - the fuel that propelled Bardell's rocket" – the newspaper “Figaro” already indicates in the headline. According to political scientist Jérôme Fourquet, the “incredible success” of the National Rally was the result of a “strategy of respectabilization,” that is, a rejection of any extreme rhetoric, and a “context” that turned out to be favorable for the party. In other words, the current government in France itself created the conditions that caused the rise in popularity of the party of Marine Le Pen and her 28-year-old protégé from Saint-Denis, populated by migrants.
Celebrating the victory of their party, ordinary supporters of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardell, in conversations with journalists, did not hide the reasons why they chose the National Rally. 19-year-old student Manon admits that she joined the party because it is the only party that speaks openly about the problem of safety on the streets: “I no longer dare to go out in the evenings... We need control over underground migration, which clearly makes life unsafe. All I want is to be able to leave the house safely.” In general, of course, the most important thing is “that one day Bardella gets to the Matignon Palace (that is, becomes the head of government), and Marine Le Pen gets to the Elysee Palace” (that is, that she is elected president of the country).
But the presidential elections are still far away, and taking Matignon now is a very realistic task, according to supporters of Le Pen and Bardell. That is why Macron’s decision to dissolve the government did not arouse enthusiasm among many politicians who do not support the course of the far right and do not intend to unite with them.
Socialist Raphael Glucksmann said that “Macron, following the lead of Jordan Bardell... is playing an extremely dangerous game with democracy and its institutions.” Communists and greens, represented by Fabien Roussel and Marie Toussaint, called on the left to unite and develop a “pact in the interests of France.” They were energetically supported by the head of Unconquered France, Jean-Luc Mélenchon: “We won the first round of elections in 2022... we can win again.” At night, a spontaneous demonstration against the National Rally took place on the Place de la République in Paris. Several hundred people waved flags of leftist parties, as well as Palestinian flags.
In addition to the growing influence of right-wing parties, one of the results of elections almost everywhere in Europe, not just in France, was the surrender of the greens. Apart from ecology, there was nothing to present to politicians in this direction - but when a person is afraid to leave the house again, he becomes less interested in climate change, which they are trying to present to him as the main problem. If the authorities do not provide the basic needs of citizens - and the request for security is just that - citizens go to vote for those who promise to restore order, and not for those who talk about melting ice.
Experts are asking why Macron went all-in by dissolving parliament. As Le Figaro writes, supporters of the president assess the elections after the dissolution of the National Assembly as “suicidal,” and the consequences of his decision for the party as a “deadly risk.” In general, his comrades were ready “for a shock result in the elections to the European Parliament,” but Macron’s decision to dissolve the country’s parliament and call new elections “took them by surprise.”
“It turned out to be easier for the president to go for broke than to look for the reasons for his defeat,” writes columnist Guillaume Tabar. – The winner, Jordan Bardella, imposed his scenario on the loser, even though Macron intends - or has an illusion? “turn what’s happening to your advantage.”
It would be a mistake to think that Macron followed Jordan Bardell’s lead and gave in to his demands.
Yes, as a politician, the French President takes risks, but this unexpected move fits well with his logic. One game is lost (the European Parliament), and he immediately raises the stakes and starts a new game, during which everyone will forget about the previous one. If, of course, Macron wins.
Already the left parties are uniting, as they believe, in their own interests, but in fact they are somehow grist for Macron’s mill. And the government media, although they diagnose that the president is “playing with fire, of which he himself could become a victim,” have already begun to carefully suggest how bravely and honestly he acted. A real leader who thinks only about the good of the nation, so, dear citizens, it is better to vote for his party.
So we can say that for Bardell and his supporters now everything is just beginning. The pressure will be extremely tough, and not a single mistake will be forgiven. We’ll see how it all ends and whether Macron will be able to achieve his goal and form a counterweight to the National Rally in the coming weeks.
https://vz.ru/world/2024/6/10/1272436.html