Libyan Crisis

ahmedfire wrote:
Now LNA occupy about 70% of Libyan lands including about half of population and most of the Oil fields which is the most important thing there .

Fayez al-Sarraj the head of GNA went to Turkey yesterday and Erdogan said Turkish companies will start work there , his only target to steal the oil like what he did with ISIS  ,but sorry oil is not available here .

JohninMK wrote:

ahmedfire wrote:
Now LNA occupy about 70% of Libyan lands including about half of population and most of the Oil fields which is the most important thing there .

Fayez al-Sarraj the head of GNA went to Turkey yesterday and Erdogan said Turkish companies will start work there , his only target to steal the oil like what he did with ISIS  ,but sorry oil is not available here .

The oil may not be available but what about the money from it now and in the past?

As I understand it, the GNA as the recognised Government has the oil contracts so access to the revenue from the oil held in the banks of the World, the LNA does not. This money is currently being spent on keeping the GNA in power, like paying for Turkish support.

This is the reason that the LNA shut down all oil exports through their territory, which is most as you say, other than any they could sell on the black market. No point in allowing revenue to the GNA when most of it goes to fighting you.

Even if, as you suggest, Haftar starts exporting he is not the legal Government, just like the SDF in Syria, so can't get easy access to the revenue.

Or am I wrong?

ahmedfire wrote:[

GNA is recognised because no one else on the stage not because it's elected from Libyans . The parliment which supports LNA is the only elected thing there , setting up elections on the east and south would give it a legal base to start pumping the oil .Yes the old revenues had gone to GNA but it's going to finish soon specially after Turkish companies being there .

JohninMK wrote:

ahmedfire wrote:[

GNA is recognised because no one else on the stage not because it's elected from Libyans . The parliment which supports LNA is the only elected thing there , setting up elections on the east and south would give it a legal base to start pumping the oil .Yes the old revenues had gone to GNA but it's going to finish soon specially after Turkish companies being there .

Sorry but your statement is merely a hope. Since when have elections mattered unless they were needed to matter?

Nothing will change until the World Community (effectively the US) reverses its long standing decision that in effect who rules Tripoli rules Libya and there is no indication, as far as I can see, that that will happen any time soon. The LNA has the wrong international allies!

ahmedfire wrote:

The US did nothing there and they don't even control any side ,not even the GNA .Most of the EU would support LNA because Turkey is violating the Greece economic water ,France needs Turkey outside Libya by any way .

Erdogan is going to lose the next elections and Turkish politics will completely change ,it's a game of time .

Isos wrote:
Haftar supports are Europeans and Arabs. They are the one that will lose big if GNA takes the country. Erdogan can open a new entry door for migrants into EU when he wants and Arab will have Erdogan's terrorists at their border (spexially Egypt where the muslim brotherhood (Turks) tries to take over the country for decades).

Isos wrote:

Russia is completely silent about this. As I theorize, it simply gave up Libya to Turkey in return for Syria. NATO was also sounding the alarm about Russia building an airbase in Libya and started flying strategic bombers in the Black Sea and Baltic over the past week.
Libya is not really worth it for Russia; Syria is what it really needs.

Libya is really up to Egypt, Greece, France, etc... all these countries that expressed outrage over Turkish intervention. No reason for Russia to fight their war for them.

They have no interest in Haftar. They just provide what UAE and Egypt pay for (mercenaries, pantsirs and jets). If Russia really wanted to get involved in that war they would send 3 or 4 su34 in Egypt and bomb the shit out of GNA and that would be quicker than in Syria.

Some people in Moscow just became very rich with all the equipment they sold there. And if you don't understand the rule of the weapon seller it's simple : the longer the war last the more they sell. Right now all the weapons used there are mostly russians (they even sold mig-29 and su24 to a guerilla...). That's their only interest. Libya's fate is non of their concern but European's and arab's

Haftar supports are Europeans and Arabs. They are the one that will lose big if GNA takes the country. Erdogan can open a new entry door for migrants into EU when he wants and Arab will have Erdogan's terrorists at their border (spexially Egypt where the muslim brotherhood (Turks) tries to take over the country for decades).

Isos wrote:

I wouldn't say that...of course Russia is payed by Egypt and UAE! But beside that they won't risk a strong position of Turkey in this conflict, because Turkey could be a competitor in the energy market. With GNA Russia will have ZERO influence in Libya, with LNA they will not have Libya under their control, but Libya would be open to russian companies.

By the way...Turkey is openly supporting hardcore terrorists in Libya, if the war is over they will focus again against Syria and after Syria on other parts of the world.

At moment Libya is a financial win for Russia and political dangerous, so that Russia won't support Haftar open with own forces. They still want to sell Turkey a second regiment of S-400 ;D

What interest would they have in having some sort of control over Libya ? The country is totally destroyed and they will never control Libyan oil. They will need easily 20 years after the end of the war which already last for 10 years to rebuild the country to a decent level.

JohninMK wrote:Spriter
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Under UN agreements, LNA has moved more than 60 kilometers from the Tripoli area to allow for new ceasefire talks, LNA spokesman Masmeri said.

flamming_python wrote:Russia has no real interests in Libya

Ofc it would be better for Russia if Haftar wins, and awards some oil/gas contracts and weapons sales to Russian producers. But it's just not vital
Libya has a lot of oil/gas reserves. Well Russia was never going to have control over them. NATO already finished Libya off, and it looked more like the resources would just pass into the hands of the Europeans. Instead now they're going to be in the hands of the Turks... well so either Europeans or Turks. No real difference to Russia.

It's not worth damaging relations with Turkey over, it's not worth the NATO panic over Russia stationing missiles there (when Russia can do just the same with Kilo subs in the Mediterranean instead), and so on. You have to be strategic.

What Libya really is is foremost Egypt's and Greece's problem. Egypt because it's a neighbouring country, which can now potentially end up with a Muslim Brotherhood govt same as Turkey and the US installed in Egypt in 2011. And Greece because the Libyan GNA have decided to acquise to Turkish intentions to steal Cyprus's natural resources within its maritime economic zone, in return for Turkish military backing.
And France has also decided to join in this mess in a big parade of European solidarity, backing up the Greek bros.

So let Egypt, Greece and France handle it. And if they're not willing, then why should Russia lift a finger?

ultimatewarrior wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Russia has no real interests in Libya

Ofc it would be better for Russia if Haftar wins, and awards some oil/gas contracts and weapons sales to Russian producers. But it's just not vital
Libya has a lot of oil/gas reserves. Well Russia was never going to have control over them. NATO already finished Libya off, and it looked more like the resources would just pass into the hands of the Europeans. Instead now they're going to be in the hands of the Turks... well so either Europeans or Turks. No real difference to Russia.

It's not worth damaging relations with Turkey over, it's not worth the NATO panic over Russia stationing missiles there (when Russia can do just the same with Kilo subs in the Mediterranean instead), and so on. You have to be strategic.

What Libya really is is foremost Egypt's and Greece's problem. Egypt because it's a neighbouring country, which can now potentially end up with a Muslim Brotherhood govt same as Turkey and the US installed in Egypt in 2011. And Greece because the Libyan GNA have decided to acquise to Turkish intentions to steal Cyprus's natural resources within its maritime economic zone, in return for Turkish military backing.
And France has also decided to join in this mess in a big parade of European solidarity, backing up the Greek bros.

So let Egypt, Greece and France handle it. And if they're not willing, then why should Russia lift a finger?

Tripoli government is Turkey backed. Therefore Tripoli government will never have diplomatic relation with Syria just as Turkey will never have diplomatic relation with Syria. While it is true Russia has no interest in Libya, at least Benghazi government has diplomatic relation with Syria and Egypt has diplomatic relation with Syria, which is beneficial to Russia because Russia has diplomatic relation with Syria.