Libyan Crisis

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Video from inside Pantsir in Libya shooting down a Turkish drone .

It seems there is an Emarati soldier teaching them, this proves the operators there are not pretty qualified ,that's why Pantsir was hit in Libya .

Considering Gaddafi never had any MiG-29. No sure where they got MiG-29 fighter jets from to destroy TB2 drones.

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1269995591372877827

https://twitter.com/ynms79797979/status/1270126101491257344

ultimatewarrior wrote:Considering Gaddafi never had any MiG-29. No sure where they got MiG-29 fighter jets from to destroy TB2 drones.

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1269995591372877827

https://twitter.com/ynms79797979/status/1270126101491257344

If they did indeed receive the MiG-29's, they would have likely come from Egypt's stock.

ahmedfire wrote:Video from inside Pantsir in Libya shooting down a Turkish drone .

It seems there is an Emarati soldier teaching them, this proves the operators there are not pretty qualified ,that's why Pantsir was hit in Libya .

One in video behind even speak some russian words. Most probably instructor from Wagner or Emirati soldier use some russian words, when working with Pantsir. It seems Libyan crews are only basicaly trained and need support of instructors to reach results. When they are alone, they made mistakes and lost Pantsirs, which they didn't have in large numbers.

nero wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:Considering Gaddafi never had any MiG-29. No sure where they got MiG-29 fighter jets from to destroy TB2 drones.

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1269995591372877827

https://twitter.com/ynms79797979/status/1270126101491257344

If they did indeed receive the MiG-29's, they would have likely come from Egypt's stock.

Egypt deliver to GNA some old MiG-21 jets. Egypt doesn't have older MiG-29, only newer MiG-29M. Those MiG-29 jets are some from those two bathces SyAF receive in last months and most probably they are flown with Syrian pilots. Syria and Libyan HoR and LNA have agreements as they fight against common enemy: Turkey and terrorists from Idlib.

Too bad that the resolution of the video sucks to see the screens.

It seem the pantsir can track those trash UAVs at great distance. When manned by well trained crews they won't go anywhere.

Good thing for Russia is that Haftar will buy easily 50 such systems ones he reaches power because he will need advanced systems to protect him ASAP and its army is only trained on Pantsir so Mantsir is the only quick solution.

medo wrote: It seems Libyan crews are only basicaly trained and need support of instructors to reach results. When they are alone, they made mistakes and lost Pantsirs, which they didn't have in large numbers.

It is surely true that results of the UAE Панцирь-С1 given to LNA forces (anyhow the older model among the export version of the system) in terms of rate of downing of enemy flyers change ,also drammatically, if operated with the aid of trained UAE instructors or independently by much less proficient libyan operators ,but simple observation of reality in number say to us that even those scarcely competent libyan crew operating insulated Панцирь-С1 vehicle, thanks to the efficient engagement's procedure authomatation implemented also in those older iterations of the Панцирь SAM , managed to apply a constant and heavy loss toll on enemy UAVs when tactical situation on the ground was stable enough.

As is possible to see also in those hours when there is not unbearable pressure, disastrous routes and retreats on the ground, those badly manned Панцирь-С1s easily inflict huge losses on enemy UAVs without even being put in any risk .

The few losses in Панцирь-С1 in Libya happened all while the equilibrium of forces on the ground was lost , mostly for the inejction of more than 10000 war-hardened combatants from Syria among GNA forces and the qualitive increase of theirs equipment and order line's cohordination.

Almost all those Панцирь-С1s lost was not only not operative but even unmanned because hastly abandoned in hangars , maintenance sites or caught on board truks while desperately attempting to escape from enemy ground forces .

Blame the scarce proficiency of libyan operators of Панцирь-С1 for the losses of those few vehicles would be therefore unfair ; it would be same as blame a Royal Saudi Air Force pilot of an F-15SA, that in normal condition execute almost sufficiently its ground attack missions, for the losses of its F-15SA because it was caught on board of a trasportation vehicle while attemptinng to hastly flee or its air bases with all its hangars has been directly overwhelmed by enemy ground forces that has been strenghtened by injection of new battallions ,new artillery or new armoured vehicles.

If someone is to blame for the bad evolution on the ground around Tripoli is the LNA command that, in its nearsighted self-confidence in the capability to take the Libyan capital in a pair of weeks, do not prepared any hardened defensive line, deepness point for concentrated fire and ambush bottle-neck points even when the build-up of GNA's ground capabilities, thanks to external intervention, became clear.

To Turkey military Command, thanks to ISR capabilities much superior than those available to GNA, that had never noticed this evident weakness in LNA positioning and deployment om the theatre, was necessary no more than some days to notice this fragility in LNA deep lines and in the area coverage of its rear logistical lines and therefore the good chances of success of a ground offensive conducted with relatively well equiped and proficient proxi ground forces.

ultimatewarrior wrote:Considering Gaddafi never had any MiG-29. No sure where they got MiG-29 fighter jets from to destroy TB2 drones.

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1269995591372877827

https://twitter.com/ynms79797979/status/1270126101491257344

Gaddafi didn't have much of anything, he talked a big talk about facing the West, but he never really invested in anything and by the time he did, it was far too late.

With respects to the Libyan air force, there was no way to procure new aircraft or upgrade older ones, because of the UN Security Council Resolution 883.
But this shouldn't have effected their air-defense procurements?

As for missiles, Libya was forced to adhere to MTCR around the late 80s.

With all that said, most of the sanctions were lifted by 2004, so Gaddafi should have gone on a buying spree by this time, but instead he decided be buddy buddy with Uncle Sam.
Leading him directly to his demise.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-libyan-air-defense-system-libya-s-surface-to-air-missile-sam-network/23841

https://mobile.twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1270387528516935683

Pick-up armed with AAA destroyed by LNA's chinese made Wing Loong 2 drone.

They are as much used as Turkish drones but they don't make a propaganda video out of every successful hit like turks.

AlfaT8 wrote:
Gaddafi didn't have much of anything, he talked a big talk about facing the West, but he never really invested in anything and by the time he did, it was far too late.

c 1970 Gaddafi ordered Mirages some of which fought with the EAF in '73. In the mid '70s he bought a lot of Soviet weapons but wasted them fighting Egypt in '77 and Chadians in the '80s.

Quick turnaround. Perhaps all that was needed was that the cargo just drove or ran off and it was gone.

KRS - URACOM
@alkaraisili
·
7h
3rd #Russian aircraft today. This one landed at #Qardabyah at 11:00, departed at 11:43.

Whilst on the other side.

Yörük Işık
@YorukIsik
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5h
Turkey’s Libya campaign continues: Turkish Air Force’s Erkilet based 222nd Squadron’s Lockheed C-130 Hercules four-engine turboprop military transport is flying from Konya AFB to Misrata. This is the 22nd flight in the last 3 weeks.

Remenber the Mi-35 the GNA liberated. Well they should have used the route planner with height limitations

Just wanted to save this here. A reminder as to what it is all about and the significance of Sirte.

This looks to be the way the LNA stopped the GNA in its tracks. Out flanked. I still think it could have been a trap.

Get the enemy to leave his well prepared defence positions and come into the open.

The war has stopped after the Egyptian political initiative although Turkey and GNA had refused it .

ahmedfire wrote:The war has stopped after the Egyptian  political initiative although Turkey and GNA had refused it .

Sirte is Egypt's red line. Russia has no say in this. Egypt has more leverage on Russia than Turkey does. Egypt says to Russia. If you accept Erdogan's demand then I will cancel Su-35 order. Everyone knows Erdogan refuses to activate S-400 to make Putin accept his demand. Erdogan has no leverage on Russia because everyone knows Erdogan will never activate S-400. So Russia has to kowtow to Egypt instead of kowtow to Turkey.

Russia doesn't give a fuck about Libya. I wonder what's going on behind the scene that Egypt didn't even already wipped out Turkey and GNA in Libya. Turkey has no power to counter them and they really have nothing to threaten Egypt (militarly, economicaly or diplomaticaly) and they have the support of Saudi Arabia, UAE and France which can deny US help to Turkey.

Isos wrote:Russia doesn't give a fuck about Libya. I wonder what's going on behind the scene that Egypt didn't even already wipped out Turkey and GNA in Libya. Turkey has no power to counter them and they really have nothing to threaten Egypt (militarly, economicaly or diplomaticaly) and they have the support of Saudi Arabia, UAE and France which can deny  US help to Turkey.

No! Libya is of more strategic interest, than Syria ever was. With Libya you can control large parts of Mediterranean Sea. With S-400 and coastal based ASM you can simply block any ship from reaching black sea (coming from western part of Mediterranean Sea). Problem is that Libya is a bit far away from Russia and a attack from USA or any other opponenet would leave the bases here on their own.

Now the problem...Russia is not alone in Libya! Here we have France, Italy, Egypt, UAE, Turkey, USA...all with their own interest. This makes it a bit problematic for Russia to act free, because a base would be seen by any other of the actors as a open agression. So Russia must hide the efforts and can't act free, like in Syria. So Russia is working in the background, but they work.

Pro: Perfect geostrategic location...the possibility to dominate energy market even more!

Contra: Foreign policy dumping ground, with high risk of escalation!

Isos wrote:Russia doesn't give a fuck about Libya. I wonder what's going on behind the scene that Egypt didn't even already wipped out Turkey and GNA in Libya. Turkey has no power to counter them and they really have nothing to threaten Egypt (militarly, economicaly or diplomaticaly) and they have the support of Saudi Arabia, UAE and France which can deny  US help to Turkey.

Not true. Turkey is Russia's enemy. Russia is concerned about Turkey's new air base at Watiyah and new naval base at Misrata. They can greatly threaten Russia from the west.

I think we can not reduce the Libyan situation to a simple calculation of one arms deal against another, or overstate the geostrategic importance of a coastal base in the Med for anyone. Life is vastly more complex. With a large number of variables, interplay, that if overlooked will give us wrong answers. Such is the case in tactics.

Take for example the air war in WW1. Two seemingly identical biplane and pilots, down to the number of buttons on their tunics. But one turns out to be an ace pilot with over fifty kills. The other dies in the first battle. We could never by simple observation, find the differences.

Such is also the case of a fisherman. And a predatory fish. The fisherman guesses and puts a bait on the hook. Never catches a fish. And wonders why. The predatory fish, does this effortlessly. Because it has fine tuned senses, that detect prey fish, even if hidden under sand.

There is a lot that we miss. Do not observe. Or think as not significant. We make our move. Like a bull in a China shop. Or a fisherman with colourful bait, that never catches............

ultimatewarrior wrote:

Isos wrote:Russia doesn't give a fuck about Libya. I wonder what's going on behind the scene that Egypt didn't even already wipped out Turkey and GNA in Libya. Turkey has no power to counter them and they really have nothing to threaten Egypt (militarly, economicaly or diplomaticaly) and they have the support of Saudi Arabia, UAE and France which can deny  US help to Turkey.

Not true. Turkey is Russia's enemy. Russia is concerned about Turkey's new air base at Watiyah and new naval base at Misrata. They can greatly threaten Russia from the west.

Yes, they can do...crossing Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Belorussia...than they can threaten Russia from west!

And in Syria they can threaten russian bases right now from west, without Libya.

Azi wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:

Isos wrote:Russia doesn't give a fuck about Libya. I wonder what's going on behind the scene that Egypt didn't even already wipped out Turkey and GNA in Libya. Turkey has no power to counter them and they really have nothing to threaten Egypt (militarly, economicaly or diplomaticaly) and they have the support of Saudi Arabia, UAE and France which can deny  US help to Turkey.

Not true. Turkey is Russia's enemy. Russia is concerned about Turkey's new air base at Watiyah and new naval base at Misrata. They can greatly threaten Russia from the west.

Yes, they can do...crossing Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Belorussia...than they can threaten Russia from west!

And in Syria they can threaten russian bases right now from west, without Libya.

Libya has cheap oil. Turkey occupies Libya to buy oil cheap from Libya and sell oil expensive to Europe. This is bad for Russia's oil export.