Libyan Crisis

JohninMK wrote:At least 18 Abrams on transporters with escorts in the convoy. No sign of the crews. This could just be a repositioning, time will tell.

Egyptian tank columns were spotted on the border with Libya.

Egyptian President Sisi gave the government in Tripoli a period of 72 hours to suspend all hostilities.

He gave a similar ultimatum to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt before he came to power. What will happen to see.



https://geopolitics.news/africa/sisi-going-to-war/

Samir
@obretix
·
1h
geolocation of Egyptian army tanks (red arrow) https://twitter.com/netocrate/status/1269675488521445380
being moved in direction of the border to Libya https://google.com/maps?ll=31.110



Video in this link https://twitter.com/netocrate/status/1269675488521445380

Hopefully Egypt fights back and punch Turkey in the teeth. Fingers crossed Putin don't side with Turkey simply for the S-400 deal which Erdogan will never activate to dangle in Putin's face as a low hanging fruit anyway.

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the GNA are restarting production from the western oil wells. This will in turn restart the flow of money into GNA's coffers. Arguably this was the most impotant objective of the GNA's moves at the end of last week.

Map for context



https://sputniknews.com/business/202006071079548133-crude-production-at-libyas-largest-oil-field-resumes-as-months-long-blockade-lifted/

With oil price so low, it doesn't pay to produce oil in western Libya. If anything, the oil is going to be used for GNA's own war machine so they don't have to keep tanking oil in from Turkey which is a drag on Turkey which already has a shortage of oil.

شبکه‌های اجتماعی با انتشار ویدیوهایی از غرب این کشور مدعی شدند که ارتش مصر تجهیزات نظامی سنگینی به مرزهای غربی خود با لیبی گسیل کرده است.

این منابع ادعا کردند دولت مصر به ریاست جمهوری عبدالفتاح السیسی به ارتش این کشور دستور داده سلاح‌های سنگینی به مرز لیبی بفرستد و آماده دستور فرماندهان باشد.

بیشتر بخوانید:

قرارداد قاهره و واشنگتن برای ارتقاء بالگردهای آپاچی
این منابع در چرایی این تصمیم مقامات مصر گفتند که قاهره بعد از واکنش منفی دولت وفاق ملی لیبی به ریاست فایر السراج به ابتکارعمل آتش‌بس در لیبی، به این نتیجه رسیده است که اگر طرف مقابل با آتش‌بس موافقت نکند، راهی جز ورود نظامی به لیبی آن هم در حجم گسترده و نجات «ژنرال خلیفه حفتر»، فرمانده نیروهای شرق لیبی، متحد مصر ندارد.

فیلم‌های منتشر شده از جاده‌های منتهی به مرز مصر با لیبی نشان از حجم گسترده تجهیزات ارسالی از قبیل تانک است. با این حال برخی منابع نیز در چرایی این اقدام ارتش مصر نیز نوشتند که این احتمال است که تحرکات نیروهای مصر در مرز غربی با هدف ترساندن دولت  وفاق ملی لیبی است.

By Yandex translate.


The sources claimed the government of Egypt President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the country's army was ordered heavy weapons to the Libyan border, BlackBerry and ready ordered the commanders to be.

Read more:

Cairo and Washington contract for Apache helicopter upgrades.
The resources in the whys of this decision of the authorities of Egypt, said that Cairo, after the negative reaction the government loyalists, Libya, headed by the fire province to resource role in Libya has come to this conclusion is that if the opposite side with the cease fire agreement said. a way, except the entry of the military into Libya, it is also the sheer volume and save the "General Khalifa حفتر", the commander of the forces east of Libya., the ally of Egypt, no.

Published films of the roads to the Egyptian border are based on Libya's broad volume of shipping equipment such as tank. However, some sources also wrote that the Egyptian military movement is a possibility that the movement of the Egyptian forces on the western border is aimed to scare the government and national cooperation of Libya.



https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1081025/%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AA%D8%B4-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B2-%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D8%B1%DA%A9%D8%AA-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D9%81%DB%8C%D9%84%D9%85

Libyan Internal Minister of GNA Fathi Bashaga announced that they reject Egypt's ceasefire terms & they won't negoatiate until Jufra and Sirte are taken.

Time will show I guess

JohninMK wrote:

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Libyan Internal Minister of GNA Fathi Bashaga announced that they reject Egypt's ceasefire terms & they won't negoatiate until Jufra and Sirte are taken.

GNA playing chicken with Egypt. If Egypt backs down there will be a loss of face. Is this likely?

If the Egyptian Army moves west can anyone stop them, other than by suing for peace?

No one will or wants to stop them. They will be supported by EU because Turkey moved lot of al quaida terrorists there and it can be easily proven. US have no real interest in supporting Turkey and go against EU. Russia will be happy that Egypt hurt Turkey.

Sissi isn't playing a game. If Turkey wins in Libya they will then start supportig Siss's enemies inside Egypt. Egypt already has terrorists in the east. Then all those syrian that Erdogan sent in Libya will go in the west Egypt anf start arming themselves.

At UN Russia/France will veto any protection for GNA. The members of GNA that are not extremists should take their distances with Erdogan and accept peace because Erdogan will send them to deat for sure. That's obvious.

Also there is unusal airforce moves west of Egypt .

I guess the Abrams videos to only push GNA to accept the peace but i doubt Egypt could send it there , what you need there is only air superiority and a lot of CAS missions .

GNA refused the peace because they only are following Erdogan orders .

If the Egyptian Army moves west can anyone stop them, other than by suing for peace?

Yeah TB-2

Or some AIM120C7 loaded 40 ish F16bl.50s with tankers and E7s.

Egypt has AIM7s with their F16s.

BVR is not what do you think , real fight is between close and medium distances .

These tankers would be intrcepted over mediterranean and expect more long range missiles on Rafale and Migs .

Expect Also real Airdefences could be installed there , Turkey has no chance to fight Egypt in Libya ,it's just a suicide game .

Intercepted with what? Will you intercept jamming bl.50s with AIM7s?

AIM7 is a easily deceivable missile. Maybe Egyptian R77s on Mig29s can show some threat. If you mean close distance, again, Egypt relies on AIM9 versions other than X, meanwhile Turkey enjoys both AIM9X and AIM120C7

Tankers never comes closer to threat area. You need tanker killer missiles which Egypt does not have. I wonder which combination within EAF will stop those battle squadron.

From operationals..

Egypt has the FREMM frigate that could forbid the airspace to any f-16 or tanker and it will be suppoted by land based s-300VM and also EAF.

Turkey can't sustain an air war so far away.

Egypt has Meteor ,Mica, R-27 long range version ,R-77 .

Actually AIM-7F/M/P is a BVR missile .

Turkish Aircrafts needs to go long distance to face EAF over Sirte as example , you need to ensure about 4000 km journey ( distance to go and come back +flying over Libya and fight and maneuver ) .

Mediterranean is not that big ,your tankers and Awacs can't go that far ,the distance from Egypt cost to Turkey cost is a bout 600 km ,you can't fly over Greece too .

A Turkish F16 can launch a AIM120 while its radar off to a target illuminated by E7. Egypt has 1 operational FREMM if Im not wrong. Can not cover entire EastMed. And again, a Turkish F16 can launch SLAM-ER or SOM or Harpoon while its radar off thanks to Link16 and Link T.

You cant guide MICA from Mig29 or R77 from F16.

Turkey has regional record of 79 F16s operate simultaneously in combat situation, this requires AEW&C capability which Egypt relies on outdated E2s.

What Mig29 sees will be relayed via UHF while every Turkish pilot will know of what each other see

Egypt also has AWACS and datalinks btw its fighters. Egypt doesn't need to destroy each turkish f-16.

Turkish f-16 will need to do things precisly in order to be able to go home safely and have enough fuel to go back. The one carrying air to air missiles will be kept away by mig-29 and Rafales. The one being armed with air to ground will have to go over air defence systems so either go around and burn lot of fuel or go low alritude and burn even more fuel and probably get destroyed by Egyptian f16 because turkish can't send an awacs so far and if it is kept too far away it will see nothing.

They have one FREMM but it creates a bubble of 240km so turkish f16 will never go there. Go around will make them burn more fuel so makes things even harder even if they have tankers.

Add to that it will start a war with Egypt so egyptian navy will destroy all the ships carrying turkish stuff to Libya. And the turkish forces in Libya will be destroy in matters of hours. Egypt already knows all their positions in real time. Bombing them will take 2 hours at most and turkish air force can't protect them.

Also if the war doesn't end quickly, Egypt has the geographical advantage of being able to close the maritime trade routes to Turkey by destroying any of their civilian ships trying to leave eastern mediteranea. So if they can't go to western mediteranean or through Suez they will be totally kept at home, destroying Turkish economy. And Turkey can't anything about that. And even NATO won't support them.

If they were so able, why they did not do all those before LNA's ass kicked in Tripoli?

Well it would be great if Erdogan thinking the same what you think .You guys can't even use F-16 to defend your soldeirs on your borders and sent some dumb drones .

Actually Egypt has datalinks and upgraded it's E-2 fleet to Hawkeye 2000 standard and get another new planes in 2010 .

You can't draw a scenario and expect it gonna happen like you want , EAF would wait you there and would use bases in eastern Libya , after some fight your aircrafts would leave for fuel and just would be hunted easily . How many tankers you need to feed 80 F-16 far a way and do you think EAF will give you a chance to feed them ? don't be silly . They would wait you there over Libya and once you  go through mediterranean ,another EAF two squadron will come from behind to give a nice trap .

US used Aim-9 over syria and it failed to hit old Syrian aircraft . Real fight is different from your expectations .

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:If they were so able, why they did not do all those before LNA's ass kicked in Tripoli?

Because countries dont start wars btw themselves to support proxies in a destroyed country like Syria, Yemen or Libya.

Egypt will go in Libya if those terrorists in GNA start looking at egyptian border or try to contact egyptian terrorists. They will go at war if their national security is being threaten.

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:If they were so able, why they did not do all those before LNA's ass kicked in Tripoli?

Because Egypt is not acting like Turkey . Sissi said from 2015 that if we send the army there a lot of people could die and Libyans are not going to forgive us.

Egypt cares about Libya not just like Turkey which needs oil and is sending terrorists there .

But at the end there are limits .

M.LNA
@LNA2019M

In past 48 hours the expired #GNA militias have been under heavy #LNA Air Force bombardment resulting in heavy losses in life’s and equipment initial reports indicate +75 dead +209 injured 7 tanks destroyed 5 armored personnel carriers 1 solider transport buss 5 towered artillery.


Another Turkish drone downed ;

7h

What remains of a downed #Turkish / #GNA #TB2 UAV after been shot down by #LNA air defense systems west sirte #Libya .

Video https://twitter.com/LNA2019M/status/1269995434086404096