Libyan Crisis

Mig29M and F16 or Rafale can not share data.

They dont share the same communication protocol.

First of all, neither of you know how technologically inferior or superior the F-16's/Rafale's/Mig-29M's are. Ultimately it is not the missiles that are going to matter the most, but individual pilot skill and operational planning. Not to mention that in these times, he who shoot's first is the most likely to win - which means that political will and ambushes win fights, not the specs of the aircraft or the pilots piloting... Russia did not expect their Su-24's to be targeted by Turkey. Syria did not expect their Su-24's to be targeted by Turkey... Either the political players catch on that it is time to standby your words, or we will have a repeat of the same situation yet again.

Secondly, Turkey is quite far away from Libya. They _can_ deploy troops there, but it is quite hard to match Egypt as the former simply has to cross the border. They do not even need to leave their own air-bases to intercept Turkish aircraft.

Lastly, it is incredibly doubtful that either Egypt or Turkey will actually involve themselves in combat. There will be skirmishes here and there, more destruction by drones and more drones shot down, but it is fairly unlikely (currently, anyways) that Sirte will fall to the GNA.

Haftar will slowly get removed to transition to someone that is more _sane_ and can actually deal with negotiations.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/turkey-libya-russia-egypt-why-sirte-everyones-red-line.html

https://see.news/analysis-strategic-significance-of-libyas-sirte-jufra/

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/saudi-arabia-uae-support-egypts-comments-on-libya/1884428

The Saudis/UAE can help with their aircraft & Egypt can also use its Mistrals to land marines/SOFs behind enemy lines.
Israel doesn't need a strong Turkey dominating the ME/E. Med., & it can help with intel from space & EW; its SSKs can help against the Turkish Navy.

A russian Mig-29M can't share any data with a french Rafale but egypt may have requested that they integrate their own datalink in both aircraft.

I doubt they did it but it is totally possible.
.....


Datalink, especially real time datalink is not something you can plug and play. Protocols are interconnected and usually (in fact, always) digitized radars have disclosed protocols to which access requires OEM level authorization.

Since Turkey is working with such things for almost 20 years, beginning with TASMUS and now KEMENT, I could follow and learn the required knowledge through national defence news details.

First, Russia should provide its raw radar data protocol to whom responsible for such a "bridge" between Mig29s and Rafales. You cant just plug a USB and read data. You need the protocol. Knowing protocol means knowing how radar gives what sort of data. To guide missiles and track objects. It may work with local frame BRAA or global frame LOS or GPS aided coordinate systems. Then, this responsible firm for such a datalink has to convert this data to Rafale's protocol. This may be fairly easy if the firm is NATO oriented. However, Russia would hesitate to provide the radar raw data protocol.

If a Russian firm does that, then they need NATO protocols. In fact, I believe it is easier to obtain, but, this would require high level knowledge and know how which Egypt does not have. Russia struggled to obtain in Mig35 but could not achieve.

So, it is unlikely.

Isos wrote:

Haftar will slowly get removed to transition to someone that is more _sane_ and can actually deal with negotiations.

Negiciations means Turkey stay in Libya and Libya cut in two countries. Then Egypt will be less threatened but not totally as Turks will have easier access to smuggle their terrorists in Egypt. Easier than doing that from Turkey/Syrua as there is Israel/Jordania on the other side. If the war stops they will just send their syrians in Libya through the border in Egypt.

On the other side they will be at the border of Tunisia and Algeria and will do the same.

On the south there is lot of muslim countries they will have access to and they will control the flow of migrants towards EU. Add to this that europeans are very well aware of Erdogan ambitions and tge fact that he use terrorists.

So there is NO CHANCE that EU, French and other arab countries let them stay there.  Egypt will attack for sure. The speech of Sisi abd its red lines are just a way to escalate the situation and prepare UN to a war that won't be a surprise war.

A country that surprisly attack another country is seen as an agressor. But if it threatens to start a war because it is in danger, it sees terrorists at its borders... then its protecting itself, not agressing.

What European's? Germany doesn't care nor does the UK.

Italy is helping the GNA with mine-clearing,

France is the only one who isn't happy with Ero being there but minus some barking they are doing jack shit. The EU won't do a god dam thing to make Erdo leave Libya.

I wouldn't count on Egypt launching any massive attack.

The Egyptian military owns the country since the time immemorial- they don't need Wagner mercenaries or their own outfit to pretend they r not involved in Libya.
If the KSA can bomb its Yemení enemies, then Egypt can do the same in Libya; if they play their cards right, they won't get bogged down there.

The GNA has rejected Sisi's statement calling it a virtual declaration of war. They're saying they won't accept any red lines...

I think another factor to consider is Algeria who also have a large well equipped Army. I don't think they can accept Alqaeda linked militants running the show in Libya as well

Isos wrote:

What European's? Germany doesn't care nor does the UK.

Italy is helping the GNA with mine-clearing,

France is the only one who isn't happy with Ero being there but minus some barking they are doing jack shit. The EU won't do a god dam thing to make Erdo leave Libya.

I wouldn't count on Egypt launching any massive attack

They don't care about Libya or GNA/LNA fight.

They will care if Erdogan set up a big base there and control the country. He will just open the border for hundreds of thousands of migrants like he did in Syria/Greece. That's why French don't want GNA to win.

A guy like Haftar will close the borders and won't allow any migrant as long as he get some nice oil contract and protection.

EU don't need to do anything. Just let Egyptian/UAE do it and keep enough pressure on US to not protect Erdogan who is a paria in US (it would be a political suicide to support him anyway for any US politician).

Egypt won't launch any ground operation but use its airforce to destroy any base and heavy equipment of GNA. The militias would stop supporting them and go with Haftar in matters of hours.

You have a very fantasy view of Libya it seems, But that's fine just watch the situation develop. You will come to see how wrong you are, Erdo is already dug into Syria and the only way he won't be is if Tripoli is taken but that won't happen.

The LNA lost their chance.

And the "Al Qaeda" linked militants is just a myth everybody believes here. Too much SouthFront.

Let me tell you, Haftar also uses them. Just tries to keep hidden. "Al Qaeda" became like a mythology figure that has Zeus like powers to be everywhere and organized. It is just a propaganda. Extremists are everywhere in Middle East. I will tell you, a Chechen living in Russia with ease with RF may have more extremist ideas than a group allegedly "Al Qaeda" linked in MidEast. Russia can/does utilize such groups even in Ukraine.

So, if you believe "insert a country here" will not let Libya to fall hands of AlQaeda myth, here you are in utmost delusion created by a faction that does not like their alternatives in the region and uses such rhetoric to fool the foreigners of MidEast.

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:And the "Al Qaeda" linked militants is just a myth everybody believes here. Too much SouthFront.

Let me tell you, Haftar also uses them. Just tries to keep hidden. "Al Qaeda" became like a mythology figure that has Zeus like powers to be everywhere and organized. It is just a propaganda. Extremists are everywhere in Middle East. I will tell you, a Chechen living in Russia with ease with RF may have more extremist ideas than a group allegedly "Al Qaeda" linked in MidEast. Russia can/does utilize such groups even in Ukraine.

So, if you believe "insert a country here" will not let Libya to fall hands of AlQaeda myth, here you are in utmost delusion created by a faction that does not like their alternatives in the region and uses such rhetoric to fool the foreigners of MidEast.

I don't know?....what do you call the groups the Algerians have been fighting since the 90's?....moderate rebels?

Algeria is a neighbour of Libya and is affected by events there...it's not too much of stretch to say they have their agenda as well

Egyptian F16s are already worthless since they have outdated radar and AIM7/AIM9Ps. Neither can stand against AIM120C7 and AIM9X.

Against Libya they would be useful even if only used as bomb trucks that can defend themselves...

What Egypt has its hopes on are Rafales and Mig29Ms which cannot talk to each other.

Rafale can talk to Rafale, Mig29M can talk to Mig29M. Neither can talk with E2s.

They should be able to adapt their systems to enable them to communicate...

Even just basic communications.

Only recently they bought some IFF systems upon request of UAE and KSA during Yemeni campaign since they couldnt cooperate over operations.

Egyptian aircraft not being able to communicate with the aircraft of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is not the same as not being able to communicate amongst themselves... I would think that would be a higher priority for them.

It begs to wonder why turkey things it can win.

They don't need to win... a stalemate draw that allows them access to cheap oil they can sell for a significant profit without needing to do very much at all is what they are interested in. They didn't want Assad gone because he is not nice to the Syrian people.... they wanted Assad gone so they could continue buying super cheap oil from ISIS and then selling it on at an enormous mark up price...

Egypt's F-16 suck. Lack of AESA and active BVR missiles. J-10C is way better. J-10C is more advanced than any F-16 out there.

That is irrelevant.... the F-16s they do have are useful and certainly better than any other fighter they don't have.

All modern fighter jets can talk to each other, regardless where they were made.

Not true. You need to adapt them to link them together. There was never any reason for France to make their Rafales able to datalink information to Su-35s or MiG-29s or to F-16s for that matter and vice versa...

Doesn't mean they can't be upgraded to do so...

Erdogan the new sultan will meet his end in Syria and Libya. Book it.

He doesn't really want the land or the people... he is like Saddam in Kuwaite in 1990... he wants oil to sell for easy money.

Mig29M and F16 or Rafale can not share data.

They dont share the same communication protocol.

There is no reason why they couldn't be made compatible... each could be made to convert their data into a generic form that can be converted by the receiver into something they can use and understand...

A russian Mig-29M can't share any data with a french Rafale but egypt may have requested that they integrate their own datalink in both aircraft.

I doubt they did it but it is totally possible.

If they want to operate a range of aircraft together it is something they are going to have to deal with anyway...

Negiciations means Turkey stay in Libya and Libya cut in two countries. Then Egypt will be less threatened but not totally as Turks will have easier access to smuggle their terrorists in Egypt. Easier than doing that from Turkey/Syrua as there is Israel/Jordania on the other side. If the war stops they will just send their syrians in Libya through the border in Egypt.

If Turkey does that it should be fairly straight forward for Egypt to help the PKK in Syria to do the same to Turkey... I am sure even Israel would help them do that covertly of course.

Datalink, especially real time datalink is not something you can plug and play. Protocols are interconnected and usually (in fact, always) digitized radars have disclosed protocols to which access requires OEM level authorization.

A web page has protocols and is effectively a datalink... your web browser receives and displays the information for you on your device... it doesn't need access to radar frequencies or other such secret information like how it detected any stealthy targets or its method of IFF.

Obviously a simple link where target data is shared and the location of friendly and enemy forces are shared is going to be less useful than a more comprehensive system that includes the ability to direct aircraft in radar silent mode to optimum launch positions and then monitoring their target for them and providing course correction information for their missiles while the launch aircraft is free to turn away and leave the area while the C4IR aircraft manages the entire engagement...

Most of the time just having targets on your radar screen provided from other aircrafts radars or even ground based radar so your radar is off is a huge advantage, but of course occasionally scanning your radar to detect targets from much closer that other radars might have missed like drones or missiles is also useful too and adds to the picture of the airspace....

The Egyptian military owns the country since the time immemorial- they don't need Wagner mercenaries or their own outfit to pretend they r not involved in Libya.
If the KSA can bomb its Yemení enemies, then Egypt can do the same in Libya; if they play their cards right, they won't get bogged down there.

There wouldn't be a problem if France and America had kept it in their pants.

I don't think they can accept Alqaeda linked militants running the show in Libya as well

Perfectly natural way of thinking... I think the ideal solution would be for Erdogan to send all his terrorists from Syria to Libya with their families to fight to the death and for the Egyptians to bomb the crap out of those terrorist ass holes and then when the smoke clears see what is left....

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Above lines mean anything to you? It does not until you know what actually it means. It may be BRAA information of a fighter relative to you, or relative to source, or predetermined bullseye. It is encoded data and you cant read it unless you have the protocol. It is radar's *encoded* output data.

Read how TADIL works. They pass codes. Ok. It is a unified structure. But only few countries can provide such datalinks. (Turkey joined the club recently) Requires EW resistance. Needs precise clocking. Data integrity sets. Has to be resistant to RF listening.

If Russia gives this protocol to a Western firm which has knowledge of F16 TADIL interface, then it can pass this information to look for a possible crack and decode Russian internal communications through decryption methods. It is risky for Russia.

That is why, operations through open and unencryted UHF channels are backwards. If I hear,

Viper 2, Magic, pop up group bearing 242 for 40, at 15000, flanking

Over enemy radio, or I am an electronic intelligence officer, I would draw parallel lines to direction 242 and 62, look for a friendly aircraft, and if I cross one and the line passes through the map does go through reasonable places for enemy existence, then bingo, you found where the enemy is.

Note that, intelligence officers may know Arabic

I repeat, no pairs of Mig aircraft exist in the world that can pass TADIL codes to a Western aircraft. There is none.

If you say it may be, you need to show similar examples. There is none.

Russia tried to "NATO"fy Mig35 export variants for Western equipped airforces. The aim was to remove excuse for not buying Russian aircraft due to lack of interoperability.

Russians integrated a BUS system in accordance with MIL-STD-1553 which is open source. This is enough for integrating on board gages and standalone modules, like IFF or RWR. Datalink, why not. But as I said,

First,



MIL-STD-1553 busses were not included in Russian export variants until Mig-35 in stock aircrafts. Doable for Mig29.

Second,

Despite operational, any datalink which grabs data from the BUS needs to broadcast it. Securely. Russia has no knowledge of Western encryption as it is confidential. Maybe a Western firm can do it.

Did we hear any Western firm signed a contract to modernize Mig29s? No.

So answer is, Egyptian Mig29s and Rafales have to talk over radio. With codes. And draw the picture in their minds.

Too backward for 21st century.

Recently, Turkey upgraded Azerbaijani Mig29s to incorporate SOM missiles and some other munitions. Although it was not a through-BUS connection.

With Özgür modernization project, all F16s in TuAF inventory, including older Block30s, will have the ability to interoperate.

Interoperation is huge capability as all the air force can act as a single, giant, capable power made of smaller pieces.

As US stepping in, I see no serious escalation over Libya. They wont let either party to grab all the power and let quagmire continue.

Classic..

Turkey is a NATO member and TuAF jets are equipped with standard NATO Link 16 data link. They could as well install their own data link. So TuAF F-16 and F-4E are well linked together. Greece also have NATO standard F-16 and Mirage-2000 which are linked together. Egypt is not a NATO member, so it does not have such data link network. Maybe Egypt F-16 could link with each other if US equipp them with IFDL and even if they have it, it is not on the same level as NATO standard Link-16, which TuAF F-16 have. Egyptian MiG-29M are equipped with IFDL and they are the first export MiG-29, which have it, together with Indian MiG-29K. Egyptian MiG-29M could be networked with Ka-52 and F-16 could be networked with AH-64. Egyptian MiG-29M are also well networked with Egyptian Russian made air defense, although it is not known, if they are integrated in full IADS as Egypt also use western made air defense. We do not know, how Egypt could fight against Turkey, but I think, they will do better than India against Pakistan. Egypt did not degrade their planes and helicopters like India did.

Su-35 will be a big boost for Egypt as they will be fully networked with MiG-29M and Ka-52. Su-35 with powerfull Irbis-E radar could work as AEW&C for MiG-29M. Problem is, that Su-35 have only 1 pilot. In this case RuAF is smart to produce modernized Su-30SM1, which will be equipped with more powerful engines AL-41F1S and radar Irbis from Su-35S. WSO in the back seat could work with whole group of fighters or strike planes as a kind of AWACS. India was stupid enough to degrade their Su-30MKI and take out Russian IFDL and data link network capabilities, which even their older Su-30K have and they use it well against USAF F-15C in their first exercise.

nero wrote:First of all, neither of you know how technologically inferior or superior the F-16's/Rafale's/Mig-29M's are. Ultimately it is not the missiles that are going to matter the most, but individual pilot skill and operational planning. Not to mention that in these times, he who shoot's first is the most likely to win - which means that political will and ambushes win fights, not the specs of the aircraft or the pilots piloting... Russia did not expect their Su-24's to be targeted by Turkey. Syria did not expect their Su-24's to be targeted by Turkey... Either the political players catch on that it is time to standby your words, or we will have a repeat of the same situation yet again.

Secondly, Turkey is quite far away from Libya. They _can_ deploy troops there, but it is quite hard to match Egypt as the former simply has to cross the border. They do not even need to leave their own air-bases to intercept Turkish aircraft.

Lastly, it is incredibly doubtful that either Egypt or Turkey will actually involve themselves in combat. There will be skirmishes here and there, more destruction by drones and more drones shot down, but it is fairly unlikely (currently, anyways) that Sirte will fall to the GNA.

Haftar will slowly get removed to transition to someone that is more _sane_ and can actually deal with negotiations.  

They did not expect. That's their own fault. They knew Erdogan is a mad man. They knew Turkey today = 1930s Germany. So they did not expect = deaths on their watch.

As US stepping in, I see no serious escalation over Libya. They wont let either party to grab all the power and let quagmire continue.

I wouldn't count on it- Libya can be divided up w/o any US participation- they had enough in Iraq & Syria. Trump declared an end to interventions abroad & doesn't need another war for oil in the election year.
He has a bigger fish to fry in the Pacific & has to realign forces for that.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Isos wrote:

What European's? Germany doesn't care nor does the UK.

Italy is helping the GNA with mine-clearing,

France is the only one who isn't happy with Ero being there but minus some barking they are doing jack shit. The EU won't do a god dam thing to make Erdo leave Libya.

I wouldn't count on Egypt launching any massive attack

They don't care about Libya or GNA/LNA fight.

They will care if Erdogan set up a big base there and control the country. He will just open the border for hundreds of thousands of migrants like he did in Syria/Greece. That's why French don't want GNA to win.

A guy like Haftar will close the borders and won't allow any migrant as long as he get some nice oil contract and protection.

EU don't need to do anything. Just let Egyptian/UAE do it and keep enough pressure on US to not protect Erdogan who is a paria in US (it would be a political suicide to support him anyway for any US politician).

Egypt won't launch any ground operation but use its airforce to destroy any base and heavy equipment of GNA. The militias would stop supporting them and go with Haftar in matters of hours.

You have a very fantasy view of Libya it seems, But that's fine just watch the situation develop. You will come to see how wrong you are, Erdo is already dug into Syria and the only way he won't be is if Tripoli is taken but that won't happen.

The LNA lost their chance.

Erdogan is what? 66? Let's say he lives to 80 90. No prob. But 100, 110? Unlikely. Once Erdogan is gone what do you think will happen? Hmm? Hmm?