The Situation in the Ukraine. #10

kvs wrote:

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

kvs wrote:

Viktor wrote:

sepheronx wrote:So how are the rebels fairing so far today? Hope they are doing well!

https://twitter.com/kp_steshin/status/559366351219728384


It seems that Novorossia Army managed to trap 8000 Ukraine solders in another boiler (Debaltsevo surounded) with the liberation of Popasna.

Peski also got liberated (yesterday).

Supposedly this is all rebel propaganda and the Ukr army is doing fine.  

Nobody can say now that the Ukr army is competent.   They were deploying men and armour to the front since the Minsk ceasefire
agreement.   I was expecting them to launch an offensive and grab rebel territory.   Instead they are losing and badly.

With at least a 2-3:1 advantage in men and and a 5-10 advantage in equipment, the Ukr army should have been succeeding.
Facts on the ground indicate the opposite.  The Debaltsevo pocket will be closed regardless of chatter about "rebel lies".

These ratios are not valid any more; they applied to the balance of forces a long time ago. However, currently, due to the small size of the Novorussian forces, the terrain size is their biggest enemy, not the Nazi forces.

It is strange that the regime which supposedly controls everything outside the Donbas, except for Crimea, does not have higher
ratios of men and equipment.   The regime should have 45 million less the 10 million from the Donbas and Crimea.   That is 35 million people.
I guess we can subtract part of the 7 million Ukrainians working in Russia, but that still leaves 30:7 in terms of population (taking 1 million
off for refugees) and the regime has all the factories in Kharkov that can produce tanks.

Glazyev had a point when he predicted that the regime would slowly mobilize Ukraine potentially raising an army of 300,000 and gearing
up military production.   That the regime can barely scrape together 60,000 men indicates that there is a lot of resistance to its
authority.   This resistance is not being given any media coverage even by RT.  

But the most important factor in the equation is that the Nazis have lost over 60000 men already (fatalities), while the Novorussian forces' losses have been very small. The exchange ratio is up to 100 to 1, favoring the Novorussians. The corroboration for these numbers had been given very early in this thread and elsewhere, and the massive exchange ratios were the result of all the pockets of Nazis that were annihilated.

As I pointed out earlier, what the Novorussians are facing is the terrain, and the fact that Russia prohibits them from marching west (the peace offensive). To elaborate on the first point, from a military point of view, the empty terrain has more military power in it than what remains of the Nazi forces.

The assertion by Glaz'yev is not a military or technical assertion.

New video of NOvorosiya recon brigate Slavyansk in one of their mission...
a firefight start when they arrive at the place..

Vann7 wrote:
New video of NOvorosiya recon brigate Slavyansk in one of their mission...
a firefight start when they arrive at the place..

There is a thing called Recon by fire? Not very popular today and can get very nasty if enemy has superior firepower. And Ukr troops usually do. But these guys are damn suiciders, smertniki, reminds me of likes infamous US recon squads in western front:D

higurashihougi wrote:Yes, this is said by the a German citizen, a German minister, not "commie propaganda".

http://rt.com/news/225995-auchswitz-russia-ukraine-meeting/

http://news.rin.ru/eng/news/84923/

Concentration camp Auschwitz was liberated by soldiers of the red Army and the Russian Federation this day is of great importance, said the Minister of foreign Affairs of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

" Auschwitz was liberated by the red Army. I'm sure this day for the Russian Federation is of great importance, " said the Minister, made public on Sunday.

But here, popular opinion here is that there was no Holocaust. So there was no liberation.

Vann7 wrote:The super sexy blond novorosiyan reporter (anna news) is back..  
now under a new internet media it seems..  and in english traslated
update from Jan -25 -2015  / Mariupol Residents says the selling came from the West..  


News Front news (Eng subs): Mariupol residents report the shelling came from the West, Ukrainian positions (Video)

wat da honeypot name?

Russia needs to finish this. Now another round of sanctions are coming, so what will it take? There's a decision to make Mr Putin. Either you will back down, leave Novorossiya to their fate or do what needs to be done and finish this now. First option is out of the question, only thing you need to look at is what happened to Milosevic, Serbia and Serbian people in Krajina when they were betrayed. President killed in the Hague, Serbia destroyed, part of her land taken away from her and there are no more Serbs in Croatia. Similarities are great and the end result will be the same here if Russia backs down. In fact a lot of pro Ukrainian commentators in the West are advocating exactly the Croatian solution to the problem. I could understand his indecisiveness till now, but it's obvious now that there is not and there won't be any deal with the west. So he can continue to wait until this cancer spreads even more, even more people gets killed or simply finish this mess, break the back of the enemy in such a way that military operations will be the last thing on his mind and than see what happens. I'm not advocating that Russia sends her army in Ukraine openly, but massive voentorg with certain number of troops in a special operation will be enough to quickly get the job done if the operation is well planned. Then Europe will be faced with fait accompli and we will see do they want war or maybe this change in circumstances did something to their stance. I have a feeling they will want a compromise then.

Nikander wrote:Russia needs to finish this. Now another round of sanctions are coming, so what will it take? There's a decision to make Mr Putin. Either you will back down, leave Novorossiya to their fate or do what needs to be done and finish this now. First option is out of the question, only thing you need to look at is what happened to Milosevic, Serbia and Serbian people in Krajina when they were betrayed. President killed in the Hague, Serbia destroyed, part of her land taken away from her and there are no more Serbs in Croatia. Similarities are great and the end result will be the same here if Russia backs down. In fact a lot of pro Ukrainian commentators in the West are advocating exactly the Croatian solution to the problem.  I could understand his indecisiveness till now, but it's obvious now that there is not and there won't be any deal with the west. So he can continue to wait until this cancer spreads even more, even more people gets killed or simply finish this mess, break the back of the enemy in such a way that military operations will be the last thing on his mind and than see what happens. I'm not advocating that Russia sends her army in Ukraine openly, but massive voentorg with certain number of troops in a special operation will be enough to quickly get the job done if the operation is well planned. Then Europe will be faced with fait accompli and we will see do they want war or maybe this change in circumstances did something to their stance. I have a feeling they will want a compromise then.

Finishing this mess will take a long time and you can't just do it in one day.

It's like playing chess. You think, you move, you think again and think ahead, strategize, and move again. All the while the opponent is also doing the same.

The US is attempting to galvanize the EU towards a massive bail-out program for the Ukrainian government.
This should not be allowed to occur.
Hence the start of the 100-day offensive to the borders of the Kharkov, Zaporozhie and Dnepropetrovsk regions, encircling and surrounding any urban centers of Ukrainian resistance en-route, and encircling and massing artillery firepower on any centers of Ukrainian resistance outside cities.
The fulfillment of such an offensive would put Kiev in a horrible unenviable position and kill any chances for its government to survive; while at the same time having avoided introducing the rebels to potentially any areas where they might not be welcome, avoiding any costly urban assaults, avoiding an expansion of the war to encompass more innocents and more wanton destruction, and avoiding having to involve Russia any more than it is already.

Regular wrote:

Vann7 wrote:
New video of NOvorosiya recon brigate Slavyansk in one of their mission...
a firefight start when they arrive at the place..

There is a thing called Recon by fire? Not very popular today and can get very nasty if enemy has superior firepower. And Ukr troops usually do. But these guys are damn suiciders, smertniki, reminds me of likes infamous US recon squads in western front:D

Recon in force is the English term, and it's very much still a part of Russian (Soviet before it) doctrine AFAIK.

However the Russian/Soviet way of doing it is a little different I believe.
The recon group still has a lot of firepower available; but it doesn't actually attack - until it probes a weak-point. The whole point of the recon group having that firepower is so that as soon as a weak-spot in the defenses is spotted, it can be assaulted immediately.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2015/01/putins-counter-intuitive-8-point-peace.html

Really nice piece from saker which explains perfectly what Putin plan is

https://youtu.be/Kll_DPeUxkA?t=2m
Givi sucks at PR, typical show off. But then again Alexandr Zakharchenko is PR genius

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/26/2773

So apparently Ukrainian fprces are defecting to Novorussia.

Novorussia needs to be careful here because some of them can be spies.

B-bbb-but they told us that Ukraine's economy is only going to shrink by 2% (or something) this year! Kiev is stronk, how can this be happening?

'If an American General thanks Ukr soldiers for fighting, that means he is their General as well'

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/26/2773

So apparently Ukrainian forces are defecting to Novorussia.

I doubt about the source. Strelkov doesnt use vk. And sure thats why Kiev sends mostly the ones from Western Ukraine. Remember the ones who refused to fight and shot all ammo into air or disarmed? What a guy from western Ukraine wants to do by joining rebels? When clearly seps have hatred towards all ukrainian.

Regular wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/26/2773

So apparently Ukrainian forces are defecting to Novorussia.

I doubt about the source. Strelkov doesnt use vk. And sure thats why Kiev sends mostly the ones from Western Ukraine. Remember the ones who refused to fight and shot all ammo into air or disarmed? What a guy from western Ukraine wants to do by joining rebels? When clearly seps have hatred towards all ukrainian.

In English, there is a saying that if something looks too good to be true then it probably is.

NAF have to be careful to not over extend themselves, there are still lots of Ukrainian forces out there.
The fact that the Ukraine government and the West are not screaming for a ceasefire is also puzzling.
And just because the Ukrainian military leadership has been incompetent, doesn't mean those NATO advisers are.

Just as I was gonna comment on the probable panic among the Kievite power-brokers and elite right now, I spotted this gem over at mp.net:

“Panic in Kiev: Ukrainian forces surrender Donbass”

International observers report of growing panic in Kiev in connection with the successful counteroffensive of the separatists near Donbass.

Over a week of fighting the partisans have delivered a heavy blow to the Ukrainian forces. The group of Ukrainian fighters in Donbas suffered huge losses, the soldiers are demoralized, the officers are confused and unable to control the situation.

Ukrainian military leadership is seriously concerned of a new encirclement near Debaltsevo, as well as in other areas.

The situation is made worse by the fact that army and national guard reserves are almost completely depleted, and plugging the gaps in defense using small formations canoot stabilize the front. Besides, the Ukrainian forces are running low on ordnance, food and medical supplies.

In turn, the partisan field commanders report 752 killed Ukrainian military personnel, 59 destroyed tanks and a large number of people taken prisoner. In view of their combat successes, the partisans are refusing to take part in any further negotiations in the format of the Minsk agreements and threaten to continue the counterattack.

Local authorities in Ukrainian-controlled districts near the front report that Ukrainian soldiers are deserting with their weapons and taking to looting the countryside in increasing numbers.

In this critical situation the military is afraid to report to president Poroshenko the real situation in the southeast of the country, hiding from him the full scale of the catastrophe.

The head of state is still convinced that the situation is under control, and hopes that in case of a real threat he will still have the chance to ask the West for help.

Regular wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/26/2773

So apparently Ukrainian forces are defecting to Novorussia.

I doubt about the source. Strelkov doesnt use vk. And sure thats why Kiev sends mostly the ones from Western Ukraine. Remember the ones who refused to fight and shot all ammo into air or disarmed? What a guy from western Ukraine wants to do by joining rebels? When clearly seps have hatred towards all ukrainian.

There are defections but i don't think is on a major scale.. they have their families that Kiev can arrest or make their lives miserable if they defect. I reported a day ago .about a kiev unit mechanized batalion who was "missing" and kiev could not make contact with them.. or where they were or if they were killed.. etc.  a week after they went missing
they show up in Russia with their vehicles.. not to conquer moscow but to defect.

Russia invaded by 26 buses of Ukrainian men running from the Kiev junta

http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/01/russia-invaded-by-26-buses-of-ukrainian.html


and this news from today..
UAF generals are escaping the "Donbass ship", ATO command "is not available"

http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/01/uaf-generals-are-escaping-donbass-ship.html

So there are defections but i don't think is on a major scale.. just a hundred or two.. still such news
combined with their failing in Donetsk and the defections damage the morale of the ukraine troops and can significantly lower their will to fight .  In wars.. 50% of the fighting is psicological and the other 50% with weapons.
If you lose the psicoligical part.. and the morale is very low of your soldiers the war...and will to fight.

here quote from the last link..

Due to the threat of further advance of the militants, UAF Operational Headquarters deployed in Kramatorsk is urgently preparing for evacuation. In addition, operational groups of the General staff hastily left the combat area in Debaltsevo. Commanders complain that they can not get in touch with the command in Kiev and personally with the commander [of the ATO] Muzhenko. To prevent the escape of soldiers from the battlefield in Debaltsevo cauldron, "zagradotriady" [ideologically filtered army police] from the volunteer battalions, arrived to the area."

So a hundred or two defections from 100,000 is nothing.. but If the generals leave , and the moral is already low..
it could create a cascade effect of massive defections or surrenders in masses.  The best think Ukrainians can do
to stop the war.. is all ukrainians raise the white flag surrender and give away their tanks or weapons to donetsk.. so that kiev will not have weapons to fight any war.. and will be forced to negotiate the end of war and either federalization for Ukraine or independence..   In my opinion federalization with full autonomy for all pro Russian cities is better..is far better ..because allows the war to end ,ukraine not lose their territorial sovereignty on paper..
but in real practice it will be Russia taking control not only of eastern Ukraine.. but also many other big cities.. that is Novorosiya creation ,legally and without firing a shot. The autonomous cities will control their own elections and have their own security and police.

IF the REbels only ask independence.. Russia will only win eastern ukraine.. but every other part in the mainland lost..because the anger of Ukrainians against Russia for losing so much territory will not stop.

here the summary of today or yesterday.. but was uploaded today.
The foreigner in mariupol that speak english was identified.. is an american US ARMY thug..

We know some Russian are fighting alongside th rebels but are there people from other parts of the world that are fighting along the rebels?

par far wrote:We know some Russian are fighting alongside th rebels but are there people from other parts of the world that are fighting along the rebels?

There are european mercenaries in both sides.. Kiev Hire Americans and Polish soldiers to help them..

Vann7 wrote:

par far wrote:We know some Russian are fighting alongside th rebels but are there people from other parts of the world that are fighting along the rebels?

There are european mercenaries in both sides..  Kiev Hire Americans and Polish soldiers to help them..

What nationalities are fighting alongside the rebels?

par far wrote:

Vann7 wrote:

par far wrote:We know some Russian are fighting alongside th rebels but are there people from other parts of the world that are fighting along the rebels?

There are european mercenaries in both sides..  Kiev Hire Americans and Polish soldiers to help them..

What nationalities are fighting alongside the rebels?

No nations, individuals, 3 french reported infront of camera, spanish, polish, germans and few others, nothing really open about numbers anyway.

There are european mercenaries in both sides.. Kiev Hire Americans and Polish soldiers to help them..

Kiew does not hire anyone, they have no money, US hires PMC's like blackwater and poles mainly, but also lot of US Army terrorists there and israelis aswell.