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51 posters
The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
Walther von Oldenburg- Posts : 1725
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Join date : 2015-01-23
Age : 33
Location : Oldenburg
- Post n°476
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
sepheronx- Posts : 8847
Points : 9107
Join date : 2009-08-06
Age : 35
Location : Canada
- Post n°477
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
Lothar, mind giving a discription? A single pic really doesnt help.
Walther von Oldenburg- Posts : 1725
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Join date : 2015-01-23
Age : 33
Location : Oldenburg
- Post n°478
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
It is Mariupol.
franco- Posts : 7053
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Join date : 2010-08-18
- Post n°479
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
sepheronx wrote:Lothar, mind giving a discription? A single pic really doesnt help.
Try this; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Phvwem7h9gc&feature=youtu.be
Or the original map site; http://militarymaps.info/
sepheronx- Posts : 8847
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Join date : 2009-08-06
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- Post n°480
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
I guess I gotta wait till I get home to view it. Thanks though. So what is happening anyway? Mauripol still being struck or what?
franco- Posts : 7053
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Join date : 2010-08-18
- Post n°481
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
sepheronx wrote:I guess I gotta wait till I get home to view it. Thanks though. So what is happening anyway? Mauripol still being struck or what?
No, but fighting all over the place, first link is a review of military action for yesterday (24th). Second link gets you into a website that is constantly updating any military action by either side. They also have a Syria Iraq section.
sepheronx- Posts : 8847
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Join date : 2009-08-06
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- Post n°482
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
So how are the rebels fairing so far today? Hope they are doing well!
medo- Posts : 4343
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Join date : 2010-10-24
Location : Slovenia
- Post n°483
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
Сводки от ополчения Новороссии
25.01.15. Сообщение от военкора с позывным "Степь".
"Артобстрелы и канонада в Донецке к вечеру 25 января слились в один сплошной гул, бои усилились, в городе одновременно работают несколько вражеских диверсионных групп. После вечернего обстрела украинскими карателями Петровского района бригады «скорой помощи» вывозят в больницы раненых мирных граждан. В микрорайоне Трудовские резервы после артобстрела — трое погибших мирных дончан.
Expand text..
С позиций у Старомихайловки украинские военные совершили артобстрел пос. Абакумова, в районе ул. Бирюзовая шел бой с украинскими диверсантами-минометчиками, которые были ликвидированы.
Перед обезвреживанием им удалось серьезно повредить несколько жилых домов частного сектора в поселке. Также поимкой диверсантов занимались на Путиловке, в районе Админпоселка в Киевском районе города. Там же всю ночь была неспокойная обстановка из-за интенсивного боя на Песках и под Авдеевкой.
С юга Донецк обстреливался со стороны деревни Луганская, где расположены артустановки украинских военных. Сразу после удара армия ДНР открыла контрбатарейную стрельбу, подавив позиции противника.
Украинской армией из Волновахи несколькими пакетами РСЗО «Град» обстреляны Докучаевск, в районе старого рынка и центра города, и Еленовка. Обстрелу с направления Гранитного подвергся райцентр Тельманово и часть Старобешевского района, подконтрольная ДНР.
В Песках каратели жалуются на беспрерывные обстрелы и нехватку боеприпасов. Вот, что они пишут:
"Тут постоянные обстрелы. Аэропорт, Пески, Тоненькое, Водяное — под огнем ствольной и реактивной артиллерии ополчения. Есть потери. Интенсивно работает артиллерийская разведка.
Очень большие опасения вызывает ресурс боеприпасов на наш складах РАО и базах стратегического резерва. Пока еще „снарядный голод“ не ощущается. Но надо понимать, что этот ресурс у нас — конечен. У противника же он неисчерпаем, поскольку враг, в отличие от нас, эти боеприпасы ПРОИЗВОДИТ.
Невозможно вести затяжную войну без производства боеприпасов, на одних резервах. А у нас всё — от снарядов к БМ-21 „Град“ и до гранат к подствольникам — складское. И даже единственный в стране патронный завод — под сепарами, в Луганске".
I find this quite interesting. The only Ukrainian ammunition factory is in Lugansk in Novorussia and they supply with ammunition Novorussian army, but Ukrainian army use ammunition from reserves. Some Ukrainians warn, that their ammunition supplies are limited although they still have a lot of it. But with prolonged war, Ukrainian army could run out of ammunition.
Viktor- Posts : 5796
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- Post n°484
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
sepheronx wrote:So how are the rebels fairing so far today? Hope they are doing well!
https://twitter.com/kp_steshin/status/559366351219728384
It seems that Novorossia Army managed to trap 8000 Ukraine solders in another boiler (Debaltsevo surounded) with the liberation of Popasna.
Peski also got liberated (yesterday).
medo- Posts : 4343
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Join date : 2010-10-24
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- Post n°485
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
sepheronx wrote:So how are the rebels fairing so far today? Hope they are doing well!
Сводки от ополчения Новороссии
25.01.15. 23:01. Сообщение от пресс-центра 1 Казачьего полка им. Платова.
"Силами 1-го казачьего полка им.Платова и частично силами танкового батальона ЛНР были взяты господствующие высоты возле г.Дебальцево. Штурмовые группы казачьего полка взяли под контроль Санжаровку и участок трассы Мироновский - Дебальцево, чем перекрыли переброску дополнительных сил АТО в Дебальцево.
Идут бои за господствующие высоты возле населенного пункта Мироновский, которые позволят взять г. Дебальцево в кольцо. По ходу продвижения нашего полка оккупанты несут колоссальные потери. При поведении наступления 30% личного состава сил АТО сбежали. Все попытки сил АТО направить бронеколонны на помощь своим не увенчались успехом, все таковые были уничтожены. Это ответ казаков за разрушения в г. Стаханов. Украинские силы севернее Дебальцево под шквальным огнем."
They report, that Cossacs regiment with LNR tank battalion take control of the hills around Debalcevo. Their aim is to encircle Debalcevo and to destroy Ukrainian forces there.
kvs- Posts : 15857
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- Post n°486
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
Viktor wrote:sepheronx wrote:So how are the rebels fairing so far today? Hope they are doing well!
https://twitter.com/kp_steshin/status/559366351219728384
It seems that Novorossia Army managed to trap 8000 Ukraine solders in another boiler (Debaltsevo surounded) with the liberation of Popasna.
Peski also got liberated (yesterday).
Supposedly this is all rebel propaganda and the Ukr army is doing fine.
Nobody can say now that the Ukr army is competent. They were deploying men and armour to the front since the Minsk ceasefire
agreement. I was expecting them to launch an offensive and grab rebel territory. Instead they are losing and badly.
With at least a 2-3:1 advantage in men and and a 5-10 advantage in equipment, the Ukr army should have been succeeding.
Facts on the ground indicate the opposite. The Debaltsevo pocket will be closed regardless of chatter about "rebel lies".
Viktor- Posts : 5796
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- Post n°487
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
kvs wrote:Supposedly this is all rebel propaganda and the Ukr army is doing fine.
Nobody can say now that the Ukr army is competent. They were deploying men and armour to the front since the Minsk ceasefire
agreement. I was expecting them to launch an offensive and grab rebel territory. Instead they are losing and badly.
With at least a 2-3:1 advantage in men and and a 5-10 advantage in equipment, the Ukr army should have been succeeding.
Facts on the ground indicate the opposite. The Debaltsevo pocket will be closed regardless of chatter about "rebel lies".
It took Ukraine 6-7 days just to acknowledge that they lost the fight at Doneck airport so something similar can be expected there
things are moving towards liberation of Mariopol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hxN0pLigYk&x-yt-ts=1421914688&x-yt-cl=84503534&feature=player_embedded
destroyed Ukraine equipment near Peski
https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=1421914688&v=wRqXx4z4xjI&x-yt-cl=84503534
and something interesting - it seems that mass surrender has started to take place at Debaltsevo pocket
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=739_1422193552
AlfaT8- Posts : 2488
Points : 2479
Join date : 2013-02-02
- Post n°488
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
Man, the Novorussia flag looks a lot like the confederate flag, is this ironic or just sad??
Kyo- Posts : 494
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Join date : 2014-11-03
Age : 75
Location : Brasilia
- Post n°489
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
Military-clad English-speakers caught on camera in Mariupol shelling aftermath
Published time: January 25, 2015 15:12
Edited time: January 25, 2015 16:10
Armed people in uniform speaking fluent English with no accent have been spotted in Mariupol in the aftermath of the rocket hit, fuelling allegations that foreign private military contractors are serving among Ukrainian troops.
The port city in eastern Ukraine, under Kiev’s control, saw a surge of violence on Saturday, when several rockets hit a residential area in the east of the city, reportedly killing 30 civilians. Numerous videos from the scene showed destruction in the aftermath of the attack, for which local militia and Ukrainian troops blamed each other.
But among footage shot in Mariupol, there are some videos showing armed men in military uniform, who speak English fluently.
One video uploaded on YouTube is apparently raw footage of a local news channel MSN (Mariupol News Service). One episode shows a man passing resolutely by the camera.
The man holds a carbine in his hand and is wearing a tactical vest. As the correspondent points her microphone with a request to comment, the man covers his face with the other hand and says, “Out my face, out my face!”
The other piece is longer and apparently shows another armed man in uniform sweeping the area for unexploded munitions. The man behind the camera is apparently a guide, as he speaks in English with a clear accent. But the person he films speaks as if her were a native speaker.
“May be exploded, may be not, so blow up in situ,” he instructs at a crater left by an artillery hit.
The footage then shows a building with shattered windows signposted as the No 42 kindergarden in Mariupol. The building is in Kiyevskaya Street where the barrage hit.
The video description claims the person is an American member of the Azov voluntary battalion, but offers no proof of this. The uniforms features a round blue-and-yellow patch on shoulder, but its details are indistinguishable as is the man’s face.
The presence of foreign volunteers among Ukrainian voluntary battalions is no secret. Earlier media reports said many of them have right-wing leanings or even Nazi sympathies.
However, so far claims of private military contractors (PMCs) like the infamous Blackwater working in Ukraine remain unproven. Such a presence would indicate a more substantial military support for the Ukrainian government by its foreign backers, since governments usually keep an eye on PMCs working in politically challenging environments.
If a Western government didn’t want a PMC to sign a contract with Ukraine, it would find a way to put leverage on it. Finding such specialists complimenting Ukrainian troops would suggest the actual support for Kiev is a tad higher than the purely non-lethal assistance officially offered to Kiev by the West.
Published time: January 25, 2015 15:12
Edited time: January 25, 2015 16:10
Armed people in uniform speaking fluent English with no accent have been spotted in Mariupol in the aftermath of the rocket hit, fuelling allegations that foreign private military contractors are serving among Ukrainian troops.
The port city in eastern Ukraine, under Kiev’s control, saw a surge of violence on Saturday, when several rockets hit a residential area in the east of the city, reportedly killing 30 civilians. Numerous videos from the scene showed destruction in the aftermath of the attack, for which local militia and Ukrainian troops blamed each other.
But among footage shot in Mariupol, there are some videos showing armed men in military uniform, who speak English fluently.
One video uploaded on YouTube is apparently raw footage of a local news channel MSN (Mariupol News Service). One episode shows a man passing resolutely by the camera.
The man holds a carbine in his hand and is wearing a tactical vest. As the correspondent points her microphone with a request to comment, the man covers his face with the other hand and says, “Out my face, out my face!”
The other piece is longer and apparently shows another armed man in uniform sweeping the area for unexploded munitions. The man behind the camera is apparently a guide, as he speaks in English with a clear accent. But the person he films speaks as if her were a native speaker.
“May be exploded, may be not, so blow up in situ,” he instructs at a crater left by an artillery hit.
The footage then shows a building with shattered windows signposted as the No 42 kindergarden in Mariupol. The building is in Kiyevskaya Street where the barrage hit.
The video description claims the person is an American member of the Azov voluntary battalion, but offers no proof of this. The uniforms features a round blue-and-yellow patch on shoulder, but its details are indistinguishable as is the man’s face.
The presence of foreign volunteers among Ukrainian voluntary battalions is no secret. Earlier media reports said many of them have right-wing leanings or even Nazi sympathies.
However, so far claims of private military contractors (PMCs) like the infamous Blackwater working in Ukraine remain unproven. Such a presence would indicate a more substantial military support for the Ukrainian government by its foreign backers, since governments usually keep an eye on PMCs working in politically challenging environments.
If a Western government didn’t want a PMC to sign a contract with Ukraine, it would find a way to put leverage on it. Finding such specialists complimenting Ukrainian troops would suggest the actual support for Kiev is a tad higher than the purely non-lethal assistance officially offered to Kiev by the West.
Last edited by Kyo on Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
Viktor- Posts : 5796
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- Post n°490
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
What just happened today is that 8000-9000 Ukraine solders just got trapped in another boiler and some Ukraine nazi leadership is in state of panic
Breaking: DPR and LPR forces join and shut the Debaltsevo cauldron, surrounding 7,500 Ukrainian troops
Breaking: DPR and LPR forces join and shut the Debaltsevo cauldron, surrounding 7,500 Ukrainian troops
Walther von Oldenburg- Posts : 1725
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Age : 33
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- Post n°491
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
WOW! Just let them surrender and enjoy captured weapons and ammo. FORWARD!
Morpheus Eberhardt- Posts : 1925
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Join date : 2013-05-20
- Post n°492
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
AlfaT8 wrote:Man, the Novorussia flag looks a lot like the confederate flag, is this ironic or just sad??
If you knew about the true history, you wouldn't have been that surprised.
kvs- Posts : 15857
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- Post n°493
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
I think it is a bit early to celebrate. It will take a few more days to settle down into a new balance on the front.
BTW, there is no assault on Mariupol. It was a bluff designed to divert regime forces and it looks like it has worked.
BTW, there is no assault on Mariupol. It was a bluff designed to divert regime forces and it looks like it has worked.
Viktor- Posts : 5796
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- Post n°494
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
kvs wrote:I think it is a bit early to celebrate. It will take a few more days to settle down into a new balance on the front.
BTW, there is no assault on Mariupol. It was a bluff designed to divert regime forces and it looks like it has worked.
True but here we go again ....
EU threatens more Russia sanctions after Mariupol attack
but it was expected .... in either case so I have no doubt Glazyev was right from the start
AlfaT8- Posts : 2488
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- Post n°495
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
What about the offensive in Kharkov??kvs wrote:I think it is a bit early to celebrate. It will take a few more days to settle down into a new balance on the front.
BTW, there is no assault on Mariupol. It was a bluff designed to divert regime forces and it looks like it has worked.
Viktor- Posts : 5796
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- Post n°496
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
AlfaT8 wrote:What about the offensive in Kharkov??kvs wrote:I think it is a bit early to celebrate. It will take a few more days to settle down into a new balance on the front.
BTW, there is no assault on Mariupol. It was a bluff designed to divert regime forces and it looks like it has worked.
Hopefully it will not pass long ...
Full-scale attack, report from Novorossiya
We are attacking nearly all the front
Vann7- Posts : 5385
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Join date : 2012-05-16
- Post n°497
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
The super sexy blond novorosiyan reporter (anna news) is back..
now under a new internet media it seems.. and in english traslated
update from Jan -25 -2015 / Mariupol Residents says the selling came from the West..
News Front news (Eng subs): Mariupol residents report the shelling came from the West, Ukrainian positions (Video)
About mariupol front , originally Novorosiyan intentions were not to take the city and Zachenko..the leader of Donetsk
even said he will not attack Maripol.. but his latest declaration in 24 hours changed and told will be liberated.. My
guess is they will not asssault mariupol with tanks , but will do it more covertly with light weapons..infiltrating from near the coast into the city. So don't expect a liberation of mariupol any time soon. could take months such low level undercover fighting.. My guess is they are only trying to lure Ukrainians to move into mariupol and lower the attacks of kiev on Donetsk city.. by keeping them busy on mariupol. Is taking the fight away of Donetsk.. and force ukrainians into the defense.
What i will predict is that US gov and Kiev will continue creating false flags in Ukraine to blame Russia or the rebels for it.. and get more sanctions on RUssia. So expect more civilians attacked in mariupol and blamed on putin..
people need to be aware that the anglozionist powers are in a soft war against Russia... by proxy.. and they have no limits on how perverse they can be.. If they notice they will lose the control of ukraine.. they will not mind blowing
up Ukraine nuclear reactors.. or using biological weapons and throwing Ebola in eastern ukraine to provoke Russia.
So any talks about "Victory" by military means is controversial.. Anglozionist Neocon Ameri-jews will not think twice
in completely creating another 9/11 but this time in Ukraine but on a larger scale.. with a million people killed in the attack.. I can hear Fanboys already calling it "conspiracy" But we have to remember which "diplomatic staff" the white house first sent to Ukraine after the coup in kiev.. to shake hands with Tymoshenko and Poroshenko and Banderas .
Madeleine Albright became popular in the international community.. for his comments about being worth the killing of half a million of civilians in IRAQ war..
Other things she also was being credited to say .. but not confirmed but repeated everywhere is that she told she believed Russia have too much Oil and too much land. In any case..
Was the Mafia in USA wanted to send a message to Russia? What did you think?
Why will the white house hire a retired from politics old women and remove her from his wheelchair to go to kiev and talk to its leaders? it is because they had no more people to send? or it is because The US gov was sending a message to Russia how far they can go in Ukraine? What do you think?
For the average idiot fanboy after being told what is happening,they will see nothing there... just people talking and having fun..
For me the message was clear.. The American Administration is telling Russia that they will not mind to sacrifice millions of lives in Ukraine to maintain their control of kiev and achieve their geopolitical agendas. Why would anyone support such Tyranny is mind blowing to me.. Only perverse and inhumans ,will support such Corrupt nation and their fueled conflicts anywhere in the world.
For me that , means a lot.. it shows how USA is trying to blackmail Russia to not interfere in Ukraine and too cooperate with them or else they will be ready to sacrifice millions.. It will be similar as if Russia Federation send to USA television presenter Dmitry Kiselyov (who told last year Russia can realistically turn USA cities into radioactive ashes) to visit Washington DC and cover last Obama state of the Union conference to the nation. That will be obvious
for anyone with a brain that the message is we will nuke you if you continue with your attacks against our nation.
now under a new internet media it seems.. and in english traslated
update from Jan -25 -2015 / Mariupol Residents says the selling came from the West..
News Front news (Eng subs): Mariupol residents report the shelling came from the West, Ukrainian positions (Video)
About mariupol front , originally Novorosiyan intentions were not to take the city and Zachenko..the leader of Donetsk
even said he will not attack Maripol.. but his latest declaration in 24 hours changed and told will be liberated.. My
guess is they will not asssault mariupol with tanks , but will do it more covertly with light weapons..infiltrating from near the coast into the city. So don't expect a liberation of mariupol any time soon. could take months such low level undercover fighting.. My guess is they are only trying to lure Ukrainians to move into mariupol and lower the attacks of kiev on Donetsk city.. by keeping them busy on mariupol. Is taking the fight away of Donetsk.. and force ukrainians into the defense.
What i will predict is that US gov and Kiev will continue creating false flags in Ukraine to blame Russia or the rebels for it.. and get more sanctions on RUssia. So expect more civilians attacked in mariupol and blamed on putin..
people need to be aware that the anglozionist powers are in a soft war against Russia... by proxy.. and they have no limits on how perverse they can be.. If they notice they will lose the control of ukraine.. they will not mind blowing
up Ukraine nuclear reactors.. or using biological weapons and throwing Ebola in eastern ukraine to provoke Russia.
So any talks about "Victory" by military means is controversial.. Anglozionist Neocon Ameri-jews will not think twice
in completely creating another 9/11 but this time in Ukraine but on a larger scale.. with a million people killed in the attack.. I can hear Fanboys already calling it "conspiracy" But we have to remember which "diplomatic staff" the white house first sent to Ukraine after the coup in kiev.. to shake hands with Tymoshenko and Poroshenko and Banderas .
Madeleine Albright became popular in the international community.. for his comments about being worth the killing of half a million of civilians in IRAQ war..
Other things she also was being credited to say .. but not confirmed but repeated everywhere is that she told she believed Russia have too much Oil and too much land. In any case..
Was the Mafia in USA wanted to send a message to Russia? What did you think?
Why will the white house hire a retired from politics old women and remove her from his wheelchair to go to kiev and talk to its leaders? it is because they had no more people to send? or it is because The US gov was sending a message to Russia how far they can go in Ukraine? What do you think?
For the average idiot fanboy after being told what is happening,they will see nothing there... just people talking and having fun..
For me the message was clear.. The American Administration is telling Russia that they will not mind to sacrifice millions of lives in Ukraine to maintain their control of kiev and achieve their geopolitical agendas. Why would anyone support such Tyranny is mind blowing to me.. Only perverse and inhumans ,will support such Corrupt nation and their fueled conflicts anywhere in the world.
For me that , means a lot.. it shows how USA is trying to blackmail Russia to not interfere in Ukraine and too cooperate with them or else they will be ready to sacrifice millions.. It will be similar as if Russia Federation send to USA television presenter Dmitry Kiselyov (who told last year Russia can realistically turn USA cities into radioactive ashes) to visit Washington DC and cover last Obama state of the Union conference to the nation. That will be obvious
for anyone with a brain that the message is we will nuke you if you continue with your attacks against our nation.
Last edited by Vann7 on Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:16 am; edited 8 times in total
flamming_python- Posts : 9547
Points : 9605
Join date : 2012-01-30
- Post n°498
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
I hope that the rebels will have the manpower and resources to force the Ukrainians out of the Donbass (Donetsk & Lugansk regions), and that Russia will give the go-ahead for them to advance that far. It will be quite a feat but they have firm local support across the whole region.
This is something they can pull-off with only 'voentorg' from Russia and some covert operatives/help.
But to get any further Russia will have to be involved more blatantly and at that stage it risks the Ukraine reasoning that it has nothing left to lose - and declaring war on Russia, subsequently cancelling all of its debts to Russia and simply seizing all Russian state assets and property in the Ukraine to pay off its own debts to the West. Not to mention that Russia will end up in a quagmire up to its neck for good. This is a risk; if it happens then all of Russia's leverage on the Ukraine will be undermined and at the moment this pressure is very useful.
Mariupol would be nice but it's not a priority; the Ukraine can simply be tricked into reinforcing it and then it can simply be bypassed and surrounded, trapping all those men who would be able to do nothing.
There is nothing particularly strategic about it; it's main importance is as propaganda/morale for both sides. The West seems very concerned about the shellings in Mariupol - so fine, leave it alone for now. No shelling needed or anything like that, just envelopment and cutting off food & supplies for specifically the Ukrainian military there. In time, the surrounded Ukrainian forces there will lose their grip on the territory.
The rebel army should reach the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhie borders but advance no further.
The reason being is that it's unneccessary.
While Kharkov is clearly sympathetic to the rebellion, the amount of local support in Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhie is unclear. There are at least a considerable amount on Kiev's side although I wouldn't dare say a majority; a plurality of people in the conflict zones in general may have sympathies to one side or the other but would be first and foremost neutral and concerned with the wellbeing of their families. However this is not the main reason the rebels should stay their hand - rather its because all the key objectives would be complete merely by reaching the borders of these regions. The crippled Ukrainian state would have been dealt a yet harsher blow; morally and economically.
You see, if the rebel army takes over the Donbass near-completely at least and reaches the region borders, we will see a complete loss of confidence in the Ukrainian government by its supporters.. and the Ukrainian military.. Ukrainian politicians. Opportunists will start hedging their bets, war criminals will start making exit plans, the 'Maidanist' supporters will start panicking. This process will be very accute in the neighbouring regions of Kharkov, Zaporozhie and Dnepropetrovsk. It would be a reality that the rebels would be at their gates and could resume their offensive any time they wish.
The best part is though, as cynical as it is for me to say it, is that it really would destroy the Ukrainian economy for good; no investor whatsoever would want to have anything to do with it; not in the rich, industrial neighbouring Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk & Zaporozhie regions that could turn into warzones at any time, not in probably the regions bordering those regions either.
If the rebellion keeps up its advance to the Donbass borders, however slowly, the chances of Ukrainian recovery via the 'Soros plan', however slim they may be now and however unlikely anyone in the West would have been to sign over anywhere near that amount of money - will be nonexistent.
If I have one complaint, it's that Russia should have waited a bit before giving the rebels the greenlight. Waited for the Europeans to dump whatever amount of money they were willing to dump into that black hole first
This is something they can pull-off with only 'voentorg' from Russia and some covert operatives/help.
But to get any further Russia will have to be involved more blatantly and at that stage it risks the Ukraine reasoning that it has nothing left to lose - and declaring war on Russia, subsequently cancelling all of its debts to Russia and simply seizing all Russian state assets and property in the Ukraine to pay off its own debts to the West. Not to mention that Russia will end up in a quagmire up to its neck for good. This is a risk; if it happens then all of Russia's leverage on the Ukraine will be undermined and at the moment this pressure is very useful.
Mariupol would be nice but it's not a priority; the Ukraine can simply be tricked into reinforcing it and then it can simply be bypassed and surrounded, trapping all those men who would be able to do nothing.
There is nothing particularly strategic about it; it's main importance is as propaganda/morale for both sides. The West seems very concerned about the shellings in Mariupol - so fine, leave it alone for now. No shelling needed or anything like that, just envelopment and cutting off food & supplies for specifically the Ukrainian military there. In time, the surrounded Ukrainian forces there will lose their grip on the territory.
The rebel army should reach the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhie borders but advance no further.
The reason being is that it's unneccessary.
While Kharkov is clearly sympathetic to the rebellion, the amount of local support in Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhie is unclear. There are at least a considerable amount on Kiev's side although I wouldn't dare say a majority; a plurality of people in the conflict zones in general may have sympathies to one side or the other but would be first and foremost neutral and concerned with the wellbeing of their families. However this is not the main reason the rebels should stay their hand - rather its because all the key objectives would be complete merely by reaching the borders of these regions. The crippled Ukrainian state would have been dealt a yet harsher blow; morally and economically.
You see, if the rebel army takes over the Donbass near-completely at least and reaches the region borders, we will see a complete loss of confidence in the Ukrainian government by its supporters.. and the Ukrainian military.. Ukrainian politicians. Opportunists will start hedging their bets, war criminals will start making exit plans, the 'Maidanist' supporters will start panicking. This process will be very accute in the neighbouring regions of Kharkov, Zaporozhie and Dnepropetrovsk. It would be a reality that the rebels would be at their gates and could resume their offensive any time they wish.
The best part is though, as cynical as it is for me to say it, is that it really would destroy the Ukrainian economy for good; no investor whatsoever would want to have anything to do with it; not in the rich, industrial neighbouring Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk & Zaporozhie regions that could turn into warzones at any time, not in probably the regions bordering those regions either.
If the rebellion keeps up its advance to the Donbass borders, however slowly, the chances of Ukrainian recovery via the 'Soros plan', however slim they may be now and however unlikely anyone in the West would have been to sign over anywhere near that amount of money - will be nonexistent.
If I have one complaint, it's that Russia should have waited a bit before giving the rebels the greenlight. Waited for the Europeans to dump whatever amount of money they were willing to dump into that black hole first
Morpheus Eberhardt- Posts : 1925
Points : 2032
Join date : 2013-05-20
- Post n°499
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
kvs wrote:Viktor wrote:sepheronx wrote:So how are the rebels fairing so far today? Hope they are doing well!
https://twitter.com/kp_steshin/status/559366351219728384
It seems that Novorossia Army managed to trap 8000 Ukraine solders in another boiler (Debaltsevo surounded) with the liberation of Popasna.
Peski also got liberated (yesterday).
Supposedly this is all rebel propaganda and the Ukr army is doing fine.
Nobody can say now that the Ukr army is competent. They were deploying men and armour to the front since the Minsk ceasefire
agreement. I was expecting them to launch an offensive and grab rebel territory. Instead they are losing and badly.
With at least a 2-3:1 advantage in men and and a 5-10 advantage in equipment, the Ukr army should have been succeeding.
Facts on the ground indicate the opposite. The Debaltsevo pocket will be closed regardless of chatter about "rebel lies".
These ratios are not valid any more; they applied to the balance of forces a long time ago. However, currently, due to the small size of the Novorussian forces, the terrain size is their biggest enemy, not the Nazi forces.
kvs- Posts : 15857
Points : 15992
Join date : 2014-09-11
Location : Turdope's Kanada
- Post n°500
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #10
Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:kvs wrote:Viktor wrote:sepheronx wrote:So how are the rebels fairing so far today? Hope they are doing well!
https://twitter.com/kp_steshin/status/559366351219728384
It seems that Novorossia Army managed to trap 8000 Ukraine solders in another boiler (Debaltsevo surounded) with the liberation of Popasna.
Peski also got liberated (yesterday).
Supposedly this is all rebel propaganda and the Ukr army is doing fine.
Nobody can say now that the Ukr army is competent. They were deploying men and armour to the front since the Minsk ceasefire
agreement. I was expecting them to launch an offensive and grab rebel territory. Instead they are losing and badly.
With at least a 2-3:1 advantage in men and and a 5-10 advantage in equipment, the Ukr army should have been succeeding.
Facts on the ground indicate the opposite. The Debaltsevo pocket will be closed regardless of chatter about "rebel lies".
These ratios are not valid any more; they applied to the balance of forces a long time ago. However, currently, due to the small size of the Novorussian forces, the terrain size is their biggest enemy, not the Nazi forces.
It is strange that the regime which supposedly controls everything outside the Donbas, except for Crimea, does not have higher
ratios of men and equipment. The regime should have 45 million less the 10 million from the Donbas and Crimea. That is 35 million people.
I guess we can subtract part of the 7 million Ukrainians working in Russia, but that still leaves 30:7 in terms of population (taking 1 million
off for refugees) and the regime has all the factories in Kharkov that can produce tanks.
Glazyev had a point when he predicted that the regime would slowly mobilize Ukraine potentially raising an army of 300,000 and gearing
up military production. That the regime can barely scrape together 60,000 men indicates that there is a lot of resistance to its
authority. This resistance is not being given any media coverage even by RT.