The Situation in the Ukraine. #12

Neutrality wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:
just out of my curiousity, this is not the first time the suggestion was raised about using an form of guided ammunition in eastern ukraine. besides the fact of GPS/Glonass guided ammunition accuracy is far worse than advertised today's artillery units use different methods to get their accuracy. why are some of you so horny for these types of high-tech weapons?.

I'm no military expert so I'm just speculating with what I know. Quick elimination of large pockets of manpower for one. Bigger damage is another one. How about using mini drones with laser acquisition or is that not possible for artillery rounds yet?

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Neutrality wrote:So I'm reading Donetsk is being shelled again. Where is the peaceloving EU or OSCE? As soon as the NAF start shelling back we'll be reading about how they are violating the ceasefire. Maybe the NAF do need to take back Mariupol and force Kiev to the negotiation table.

Taking Mariupol back may be a major catalyst in destruction of the Ukrainian economy and maybe even the Ukrainian state (honestly it is a pretty slow reaction as of now). It will almost certainly result in the fall of the Pork regime soon afterward but they might be more encouraged to launch a full out strike against Novorossiya and maybe make a bold attempt to attack Crimea beforehand. Anyhow this would hurt Russia too right now. The Russian economy has been quickly recovering in times when Ukraine is relatively peaceful like right now. So even though people are suffering and dying, I do not see the Colorados striking that major of a blow unless the Hohols were to try something first.

Mariupol is heavily fortified and is particularly under the complete control of Azov battalion. The NAF has its forces spread thin on the front. In order to take Mariupol back, the NAF might need a push from a gentle and subtle "Eastern Wind" (hopefully with surgical airstrikes this time) to take Mariupol within a few days. Would be nice if Mariupol was put into a cauldron as well.

Airbornewolf wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:
just out of my curiousity, this is not the first time the suggestion was raised about using an form of guided ammunition in eastern ukraine. besides the fact of GPS/Glonass guided ammunition accuracy is far worse than advertised today's artillery units use different methods to get their accuracy. why are some of you so horny for these types of high-tech weapons?.

I'm no military expert so I'm just speculating with what I know. Quick elimination of large pockets of manpower for one. Bigger damage is another one. How about using mini drones with laser acquisition or is that not possible for artillery rounds yet?

you are thinking in expensive, not available weaponry. no offense of course, like i stated in another thread i dont mind elaborating on the reality in the field. large pockets of manpower?. sure but you either end up with option 1 i mentioned, being to saturate an target area. or 2 illegal weaponry like cluster warheads or WP (white phosphorous).

for your question, yes there are drones available that can laze an target area to get an grid reference for an arty strike. but again its too expensive and elaborate and its way easier to just send an guy there in an recon team to instead laze the target, get an grid reference and radio it back to an artillery unit. the chances of an handful of guys being detected is way smaller than some drone flying overhead.  

if the NAF wants to whipe an unit off the map, and they know where they are... they hit them in the early hours like 0300 in the morning. most of them will be asleep anyway and put more rounds trough their artillery weaponry than they normally would, its what the millitary calls saturating an target. basically as soon the shell ejects out of the gun ram an fresh round in with the propellant charge and fire the gun again. after their fire mission the NAF fire unit should immediately relocate to avoid counter-fire on their position. what does not get killed or destroyed by NAF fire will be rendered inoperable by either shrapnell damage or for personel blast damage or trauma of the extreme shelling.   dont forget Arty fire has an profound psychological effect next to its physical ones.

saturation fire even happens today within NATO, last time the Dutch used such tactics was in Afghanistan 2007, when Chora was in danger of being overun and kept the PZH2000 in saturation fire to neutralise anything that came near the FOB Chora.

etaepsilonk wrote:Since russian strategy seems to be attrition warfare, capturing territory may only be a secondary consideration.

Erk wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Neutrality wrote:So I'm reading Donetsk is being shelled again. Where is the peaceloving EU or OSCE? As soon as the NAF start shelling back we'll be reading about how they are violating the ceasefire. Maybe the NAF do need to take back Mariupol and force Kiev to the negotiation table.

Taking Mariupol back may be a major catalyst in destruction of the Ukrainian economy and maybe even the Ukrainian state (honestly it is a pretty slow reaction as of now). It will almost certainly result in the fall of the Pork regime soon afterward but they might be more encouraged to launch a full out strike against Novorossiya and maybe make a bold attempt to attack Crimea beforehand. Anyhow this would hurt Russia too right now. The Russian economy has been quickly recovering in times when Ukraine is relatively peaceful like right now. So even though people are suffering and dying, I do not see the Colorados striking that major of a blow unless the Hohols were to try something first.

Mariupol is heavily fortified and is particularly under the complete control of Azov battalion. The NAF has its forces spread thin on the front. In order to take Mariupol back, the NAF might need a push from a gentle and subtle "Eastern Wind" (hopefully with surgical airstrikes this time) to take Mariupol within a few days. Would be nice if Mariupol was put into a cauldron as well.

Does Mariupol want "taking" do they want to be part of Novorossiya or would it be considered an act of NAF aggression by the Mariupol citizens?

Erk wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Neutrality wrote:So I'm reading Donetsk is being shelled again. Where is the peaceloving EU or OSCE? As soon as the NAF start shelling back we'll be reading about how they are violating the ceasefire. Maybe the NAF do need to take back Mariupol and force Kiev to the negotiation table.

Taking Mariupol back may be a major catalyst in destruction of the Ukrainian economy and maybe even the Ukrainian state (honestly it is a pretty slow reaction as of now). It will almost certainly result in the fall of the Pork regime soon afterward but they might be more encouraged to launch a full out strike against Novorossiya and maybe make a bold attempt to attack Crimea beforehand. Anyhow this would hurt Russia too right now. The Russian economy has been quickly recovering in times when Ukraine is relatively peaceful like right now. So even though people are suffering and dying, I do not see the Colorados striking that major of a blow unless the Hohols were to try something first.

Mariupol is heavily fortified and is particularly under the complete control of Azov battalion. The NAF has its forces spread thin on the front. In order to take Mariupol back, the NAF might need a push from a gentle and subtle "Eastern Wind" (hopefully with surgical airstrikes this time) to take Mariupol within a few days. Would be nice if Mariupol was put into a cauldron as well.

Does Mariupol want "taking" do they want to be part of Novorossiya or would it be considered an act of NAF aggression by the Mariupol citizens?

Neutrality wrote:

kvs wrote:I don't think the rebels can hold much more territory as they are now.   They have improved significantly thanks to themselves
and Russia, but they do not have the resources to capture land and hold it.   They cannot even drive the regime forces back
far enough to stop the shelling of Donetsk.   Mariupol may be just too much resources.   A good guerrilla war would be nice but
the partisan action seems to be rather weak.   People just don't want to fight.  This is not like Cuba in the late 1950s.   Perhaps
with time people will start getting more interested in dying for their freedom, but now they want for the conflict go away, all by
itself.

Ukrainians were free up until early 2014 and have only lived under dictatorship posing as a democracy for just over a year.
Most of them are still in denial.   Donetsk and Lugansk were special in this regard.

I disagree with you here. Remember that NAF advance was stopped due to the Minks II agreements otherwise they'd be pushing very deep into Ukrainian territory right now. They caught a significant force with their pants down in Debalceve. And if that force would've been completely wiped out, the Ukrainian army wouldn't have the manpower to defend their territory against further advances of the NAF.

All of that reflects on the weak partisan action. As soon as things flare up again I expect this will follow as well.

Neutrality wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:
just out of my curiousity, this is not the first time the suggestion was raised about using an form of guided ammunition in eastern ukraine. besides the fact of GPS/Glonass guided ammunition accuracy is far worse than advertised today's artillery units use different methods to get their accuracy. why are some of you so horny for these types of high-tech weapons?.

I'm no military expert so I'm just speculating with what I know. Quick elimination of large pockets of manpower for one. Bigger damage is another one. How about using mini drones with laser acquisition or is that not possible for artillery rounds yet?

you are thinking in expensive, not available weaponry. no offense of course, like i stated in another thread i dont mind elaborating on the reality in the field. large pockets of manpower?. sure but you either end up with option 1 i mentioned, being to saturate an target area. or 2 illegal weaponry like cluster warheads or WP (white phosphorous).

for your question, yes there are drones available that can laze an target area to get an grid reference for an arty strike. but again its too expensive and elaborate and its way easier to just send an guy there in an recon team to instead laze the target, get an grid reference and radio it back to an artillery unit. the chances of an handful of guys being detected is way smaller than some drone flying overhead.  

if the NAF wants to whipe an unit off the map, and they know where they are... they hit them in the early hours like 0300 in the morning. most of them will be asleep anyway and put more rounds trough their artillery weaponry than they normally would, its what the millitary calls saturating an target. basically as soon the shell ejects out of the gun ram an fresh round in with the propellant charge and fire the gun again. after their fire mission the NAF fire unit should immediately relocate to avoid counter-fire on their position. what does not get killed or destroyed by NAF fire will be rendered inoperable by either shrapnell damage or for personel blast damage or trauma of the extreme shelling.   dont forget Arty fire has an profound psychological effect next to its physical ones.

saturation fire even happens today within NATO, last time the Dutch used such tactics was in Afghanistan 2007, when Chora was in danger of being overun and kept the PZH2000 in saturation fire to neutralise anything that came near the FOB Chora.

Thank you for the explanation. In what scenario would high-tech. artillery like I mentioned help then?

Erk wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Neutrality wrote:So I'm reading Donetsk is being shelled again. Where is the peaceloving EU or OSCE? As soon as the NAF start shelling back we'll be reading about how they are violating the ceasefire. Maybe the NAF do need to take back Mariupol and force Kiev to the negotiation table.

Taking Mariupol back may be a major catalyst in destruction of the Ukrainian economy and maybe even the Ukrainian state (honestly it is a pretty slow reaction as of now). It will almost certainly result in the fall of the Pork regime soon afterward but they might be more encouraged to launch a full out strike against Novorossiya and maybe make a bold attempt to attack Crimea beforehand. Anyhow this would hurt Russia too right now. The Russian economy has been quickly recovering in times when Ukraine is relatively peaceful like right now. So even though people are suffering and dying, I do not see the Colorados striking that major of a blow unless the Hohols were to try something first.

Mariupol is heavily fortified and is particularly under the complete control of Azov battalion. The NAF has its forces spread thin on the front. In order to take Mariupol back, the NAF might need a push from a gentle and subtle "Eastern Wind" (hopefully with surgical airstrikes this time) to take Mariupol within a few days. Would be nice if Mariupol was put into a cauldron as well.

Does Mariupol want "taking" do they want to be part of Novorossiya or would it be considered an act of NAF aggression by the Mariupol citizens?

Flagship Victory wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:
just out of my curiousity, this is not the first time the suggestion was raised about using an form of guided ammunition in eastern ukraine. besides the fact of GPS/Glonass guided ammunition accuracy is far worse than advertised today's artillery units use different methods to get their accuracy. why are some of you so horny for these types of high-tech weapons?.

I'm no military expert so I'm just speculating with what I know. Quick elimination of large pockets of manpower for one. Bigger damage is another one. How about using mini drones with laser acquisition or is that not possible for artillery rounds yet?

you are thinking in expensive, not available weaponry. no offense of course, like i stated in another thread i dont mind elaborating on the reality in the field. large pockets of manpower?. sure but you either end up with option 1 i mentioned, being to saturate an target area. or 2 illegal weaponry like cluster warheads or WP (white phosphorous).

for your question, yes there are drones available that can laze an target area to get an grid reference for an arty strike. but again its too expensive and elaborate and its way easier to just send an guy there in an recon team to instead laze the target, get an grid reference and radio it back to an artillery unit. the chances of an handful of guys being detected is way smaller than some drone flying overhead.  

if the NAF wants to whipe an unit off the map, and they know where they are... they hit them in the early hours like 0300 in the morning. most of them will be asleep anyway and put more rounds trough their artillery weaponry than they normally would, its what the millitary calls saturating an target. basically as soon the shell ejects out of the gun ram an fresh round in with the propellant charge and fire the gun again. after their fire mission the NAF fire unit should immediately relocate to avoid counter-fire on their position. what does not get killed or destroyed by NAF fire will be rendered inoperable by either shrapnell damage or for personel blast damage or trauma of the extreme shelling.   dont forget Arty fire has an profound psychological effect next to its physical ones.

saturation fire even happens today within NATO, last time the Dutch used such tactics was in Afghanistan 2007, when Chora was in danger of being overun and kept the PZH2000 in saturation fire to neutralise anything that came near the FOB Chora.

Thank you for the explanation. In what scenario would high-tech. artillery like I mentioned help then?

Use drones for recon. Drones have GPS. They tell exactly where enemy positions are. Then, use crude arti would be enough.  Hope that helps.

Neutrality wrote:

whir wrote:

OSCE wrote:The SMM monitored the implementation of the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. The SMM, based on its monitoring – which was restricted by third parties and by security considerations* – observed ongoing fighting in and around Donetsk airport, in the environs of Shyrokyne, and – to a lesser extent – in a number of other places. The SMM observed military movement on both sides of the contact line. Azov volunteer battalion members occupied an SMM observation point near Shyrokyne. Numerous peaceful rallies were held throughout the country.

The SMM continued to observe ceasefire violations in and around Donetsk airport, and near Shyrokyne (20km east of Mariupol).[1] The SMM also noted isolated violations in a number of other locations. Just outside government-controlled Mykolaivka (41km south of Donetsk), the SMM saw three – what it assessed to be – outgoing tank rounds fired from a location approximately 2km to the north. An incoming round followed, impacting approximately 400m north of the SMM’s position. The SMM also heard an artillery round impact 10km to the north of its position in “Lugansk People’s Republic” (“LPR”)-controlled Molodizhne (62km west of Luhansk).

At the end of that video, filthy scumbags. I genuinely hope the entire Azov battalion gets encircled and annihilated. No negotiations, no peaceful surrender. Complete and utter destruction. If you go to war to destroy then you must be ready to be destroyed.

/rant off

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

kvs wrote:I don't think the rebels can hold much more territory as they are now.   They have improved significantly thanks to themselves
and Russia, but they do not have the resources to capture land and hold it.   They cannot even drive the regime forces back
far enough to stop the shelling of Donetsk.   Mariupol may be just too much resources.   A good guerrilla war would be nice but
the partisan action seems to be rather weak.   People just don't want to fight.  This is not like Cuba in the late 1950s.   Perhaps
with time people will start getting more interested in dying for their freedom, but now they want for the conflict go away, all by
itself.

Ukrainians were free up until early 2014 and have only lived under dictatorship posing as a democracy for just over a year.
Most of them are still in denial.   Donetsk and Lugansk were special in this regard.

I disagree with you here. Remember that NAF advance was stopped due to the Minks II agreements otherwise they'd be pushing very deep into Ukrainian territory right now. They caught a significant force with their pants down in Debalceve. And if that force would've been completely wiped out, the Ukrainian army wouldn't have the manpower to defend their territory against further advances of the NAF.

All of that reflects on the weak partisan action. As soon as things flare up again I expect this will follow as well.

I think the truth of the matter includes components of both of the views.

It seems to me that without the political obstacles, i.e. the peace offensive, the Novorussians can totally decimate the remnants of the Nazi combatants; however, they still can't liberate and hold much more territory, as a huge unoccupied geographical region has elements that resist liberation and maintenance of that situation by such a numerically small force as that of the Novorussians.

Spot Report by OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM): Four incidents involving the SMM within last 36 hours wrote:On 2 May, at 11:55hrs, en route to Shyrokyne, approximately 1km west of the entrance of the village, the SMM heard a burst of small-arms fire originating from north-west of its position. The SMM armoured vehicle sustained a direct hit to its rear right corner from a single 5.45mm bullet fired in the burst. The SMM patrol did not sustain casualties as a result of the attack.

Vox Populi Evo wrote:

Kazzura wrote:

Ukraine News Today wrote:

DAN via Google Translate wrote:Украинские силовики из танков и минометов расстреливают блокпосты на окраине города Ясиноватая – глава райдаминистрации
Ukrainian security officials from tanks and mortars shot roadblocks on the outskirts of Yasinovataya - Head raydaministratsii
MAY 3, 2015 0:41
Donets, May 3 - DAN. Security forces fired on the city Yasinovataya (Donetsk agglomeration) from tanks and mortars, said today correspondent. DAN head Yasinovatskiy district Yuri Corsair.

"For the moment bombardment outskirts of the city. Ukrainian security officials from tanks and mortars fired at roadblocks. While data is not affected, "- he said.

A similar situation in the Kiev region of Donetsk. As a result of the shelling, Ukrainian missiles and mortar shells exploded on the school grounds. Now the whole neighborhood Putilovsky smoke.

Sputnik wrote:Lavrov Calls on OSCE to Demand Kiev to Stop Ceasefire Violations in Donetsk
01:37 03.05.2015(updated 02:13 03.05.2015)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged the OSCE Chairman in a telephone conversation to demand Kiev to stop ceasefire violations in Donetsk.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on Chairperson of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Ivica Dacic to demand Kiev to stop ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement Sunday.

“In connection with the reports on the Armed Forces of Ukraine having begun shelling of Donetsk from large-caliber guns, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov urged OSCE Chairman… Ivica Dacic in a telephone conversation to use his authority so that special monitoring mission of the OSCE in Ukraine demanded Kiev to immediately stop gross violation of the Minsk Agreements,” the statement published on the ministry's official Facebook page said. Continue reading

RIA Novosti via Google Translate wrote:Представители ОБСЕ прибыли на место обстрелов в Донецке
OSCE representatives arrived on the attacks in Donetsk
11:37 03/05/2015 (Updated: 11:39 03/05/2015 )

Earlier, the head of the Kiev administration and Kuibyshev district of the city Ivan Prikhodko told Donetsk news agency that as a result of night shelling Ukrainian law enforcers Kiev region has massive destruction.

DONETSK, May 3 - RIA Novosti. The representatives of the OSCE mission in conjunction with the Deputy Commander of the self-proclaimed militia Donetsk People's Republic Eduard Basurinym arrived at the scene of Saturday's attack in the Kiev region of Donetsk, RIA Novosti reported.

The authorities in Donetsk reported large-scale destruction of the night shelling

Observers record the damage and make the data in a special report.

Earlier, the head of the Kiev administration and Kuibyshev district of the city Ivan Prikhodko told Donetsk news agency that as a result of night shelling Ukrainian law enforcers Kiev region has massive destruction.

The shelling lasted until 12 o'clock at night on May 2 and continued in the area in the morning on May 3.

According to the Ministry of Defence of the DNI, the fire was allegedly using a sample of ammunition NATO. "Right now, exactly the type of ammunition too early to say, but there is speculation that it was a sample of ammunition NATO," - said the representative office.

In mid-February in eastern Ukraine it was declared a truce, but soon resumed shootout, the two sides accused each other of violating the "silent mode" and state that are only returned fire. Shooting is conducted mainly in the south of the port of Mariupol, Donetsk region and destroyed at Donetsk airport. Continue reading

Dialog via Google Translate wrote:Матиос: в Украине призывают эпилептиков и туберкулезников
Matios: Ukraine urge epileptics and consumptives

May 1, 2015, 20:50 - Ukraine
Matios accuses the medical commission of incompetence.

The Military Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine have evidence of recruitment into the Armed Forces of people with the disease epilepsy, said the chief military prosecutor of Ukraine Anatoly Matios.

"Just two days ago we found the facts (received treatment from the military) that found that more than 100 people who have symptoms of epilepsy, have been called," - he said on "Gromadska TV".

Matios said that an appeal had been received by the military that "after the booked arrival at the landfill and in the part of teamwork, found 100 cases (designed with signs of epilepsy - Ed.)."

There were cases of recruitment of people with active TB, said Matios.

whir wrote:

Mass murders of Soviet prisoners at the hands of the Nazis in Germany during WWII haven’t been taken into account, said German President Joachim Gauck, praising Soviet Army troops, who are owed “gratitude and respect”.

Gauck’s words were echoed by Chancellor Angela Merkel, who also said that Germany should not forget its Nazi past and try to be sensitive to those nations that were affected in the World War II. “There's no drawing a line under the history,” Merkel said. “We can see that in the Greece debate and in other European countries. We Germans have a special responsibility to be alert, sensitive and aware of what we did during the Nazi era and about lasting damage caused in other countries. I've got tremendous sympathy for that.”

higurashihougi wrote:

Mass murders of Soviet prisoners at the hands of the Nazis in Germany during WWII haven’t been taken into account, said German President Joachim Gauck, praising Soviet Army troops, who are owed “gratitude and respect”.

Gauck’s words were echoed by Chancellor Angela Merkel, who also said that Germany should not forget its Nazi past and try to be sensitive to those nations that were affected in the World War II. “There's no drawing a line under the history,” Merkel said. “We can see that in the Greece debate and in other European countries. We Germans have a special responsibility to be alert, sensitive and aware of what we did during the Nazi era and about lasting damage caused in other countries. I've got tremendous sympathy for that.”

higurashihougi wrote:I told ya, Germany is a shadow ally of Russia. Obama chains prevent Merkel from openly support Putin. But who know what happened in the dark, beyond the vision of the White House ?

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:Since russian strategy seems to be attrition warfare, capturing territory may only be a secondary consideration.

May you what you mean by define "attrition" here? If you mean who is able to hold out the longest before one side breaks I agree. Capturing Mariupol which happens to be lost territory AND a major economic center of Ukraine. One steel mill alone in Mariupol is estimated to generate a forth of Ukraine's foreign investment. Taking that away would significantly hurt the Ukrops ability to hold out against Novorossiya, if not start a chain reaction leading to the destruction of Ukraine's economy. So it makes a lot of sense in taking Mariupol if needed.

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:With the new members joining the forum, this thread has come back to life again. Thanks guys and ladies.

It seems to me that, since the start of the war in Donbass, Google Translate has become useless, and seems to me that the translator generally reverses the meanings, so material posted by Russian speaking members is really a plus for this thread and the forum in general.

etaepsilonk wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:Since russian strategy seems to be attrition warfare, capturing territory may only be a secondary consideration.

May you what you mean by define "attrition" here? If you mean who is able to hold out the longest before one side breaks I agree. Capturing Mariupol which happens to be lost territory AND a major economic center of Ukraine. One steel mill alone in Mariupol is estimated to generate a forth of Ukraine's foreign investment. Taking that away would significantly hurt the Ukrops ability to hold out against Novorossiya, if not start a chain reaction leading to the destruction of Ukraine's economy. So it makes a lot of sense in taking Mariupol if needed.

According to some prorussian trolls, ukrainian economy should've collapsed several times by now.

Yes, by attrition I mean who'll hold out the longest. Usually it also means that army is reluctant to engage in head on assault on major urban centers because of, you've guessed it, attrition
And Ukraine can replace manpower losses far easier than russia and it's lackeys.