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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #13

    Neutrality
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    Post  Neutrality Thu May 14, 2015 5:16 pm

    sepheronx wrote:

    I agree with you.

    I think Russians have become far too lazy and complacent.  The media here wishes ill upon Russians.  Many people view Russians should be killed.  And to top it all off, in Ukraine, they actually kill and threaten Russians on a day to day basis, and or people who they deem Russian.  USA and Canadian government has allowed this to happen and has even encouraged it.  So why are Russians willing to step back and let this happen to their ethnic brothers/sisters?  I imagine that eventually, after the eastern people are snuffed off, it will be Russians in their own territory next.  Do these people really want a full on war within their own territory before they will actually act?  It would be in their best interests if they were open about training and arming rebels in eastern Ukraine, and started to help others who wanted to fight against Kiev (which is something that does exist currently).  Sitting around will just have more people grow disdain for them.

    You should realize that this is going to be a long term war, both direct and indirect. The Russian government is trying to find a balance between sufficient support for NAF and not fucking up the Russian economy too much. It's going to be a tough situation until the moment when the Russian economy gets sufficiently reorientated towards the Asian/South East Pacific region and a fully implemented import substitution. That's when Washington and Brussels will no longer be in power to blackmail Moscow economically. That's when I expect a more serious support for Donbass, both military and economically. Now I have no idea how long this might take but the recent visit of John Kerry and Merkel leads me to believe that the Russian government is heading in the right way.
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    Post  sepheronx Thu May 14, 2015 5:44 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:

    I agree with you.

    I think Russians have become far too lazy and complacent.  The media here wishes ill upon Russians.  Many people view Russians should be killed.  And to top it all off, in Ukraine, they actually kill and threaten Russians on a day to day basis, and or people who they deem Russian.  USA and Canadian government has allowed this to happen and has even encouraged it.  So why are Russians willing to step back and let this happen to their ethnic brothers/sisters?  I imagine that eventually, after the eastern people are snuffed off, it will be Russians in their own territory next.  Do these people really want a full on war within their own territory before they will actually act?  It would be in their best interests if they were open about training and arming rebels in eastern Ukraine, and started to help others who wanted to fight against Kiev (which is something that does exist currently).  Sitting around will just have more people grow disdain for them.

    You should realize that this is going to be a long term war, both direct and indirect. The Russian government is trying to find a balance between sufficient support for NAF and not fucking up the Russian economy too much. It's going to be a tough situation until the moment when the Russian economy gets sufficiently reorientated towards the Asian/South East Pacific region and a fully implemented import substitution. That's when Washington and Brussels will no longer be in power to blackmail Moscow economically. That's when I expect a more serious support for Donbass, both military and economically. Now I have no idea how long this might take but the recent visit of John Kerry and Merkel leads me to believe that the Russian government is heading in the right way.

    You should also realise that it really wont screw the Russian economy.  Russia's export west is simply oil, gas and metals, while they export their finished made products to everyone else.  This has been going on for years.  The west knows that they need the 145M person market, so if they want to sanction, they can sanction away.  It wont screw Russia's economy because the only thing that would hurt it is the lack of sale of oil and gas to Europe and available credit, which is none existent, so the only one now is simply oil and gas, which Europe wont step away from.  They can cry and whine all they want, but in the end, they will need it.  Russia's import substitution is already in full gear and new productions are going on.  Foreign investments from west is already at its lowest, so there really nothing else to lose.  Total sanctions on Russia is pretty much close to what it will ever get bar being kicked out of swift, which cannot happen now.

    Recent visit of Kerry is nothing, and will amount to nothing.  Merkel simply stated that Russia should give back Crimea.  So both visits were garbage and that is just that.  Kerry is a horse faced, two bit loser who is all talk.  If they mean it, they would have actually pushed Poroshenko out or down.  But now Poroshenko is going to do what he wants, because the US is actually helping them do it, and convincing them.  Merkel is a two bit loser as well who should be impeached already for all the spying allegations and what not, but that wont happen.  She is so deep in the US pocket, that it isn't even funny anymore.
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    Post  sepheronx Thu May 14, 2015 5:49 pm

    Abuse of Power: Ukraine's Poroshenko Exposed in $25 Mln Land Deal Cover-up
    Amid growing public disdain within Ukraine over the oligarchs’ tight grip of power in the country, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has focused its ire on President Poroshenko, advising him to take his own medicine: it published a report revealing how he used presidential influence to quietly appropriate historic sites and bury subsequent inquiries.
    The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) has dug into President Poroshenko’s misuse of his presidential power.

    The revelations come as Poroshenko, soon to mark his first year in office, faces growing criticism, both within the country and abroad, for his failure to rein in the oligarchs and their tight grip on power.

    And the best:

    http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150514/1022145805.html

    Really, this makes me want to puke.
    Neutrality
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    Post  Neutrality Thu May 14, 2015 5:59 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    You should also realise that it really wont screw the Russian economy.  Russia's export west is simply oil, gas and metals, while they export their finished made products to everyone else.  This has been going on for years.  The west knows that they need the 145M person market, so if they want to sanction, they can sanction away.  It wont screw Russia's economy because the only thing that would hurt it is the lack of sale of oil and gas to Europe and available credit, which is none existent, so the only one now is simply oil and gas, which Europe wont step away from.  They can cry and whine all they want, but in the end, they will need it.  Russia's import substitution is already in full gear and new productions are going on.  Foreign investments from west is already at its lowest, so there really nothing else to lose.  Total sanctions on Russia is pretty much close to what it will ever get bar being kicked out of swift, which cannot happen now.

    They don't only export raw materials. They are the most important products, yes, but there's still other stuff. I do believe that sanctions aren't as effective as Western leaders make them out to be but there IS a negative effect. Several Chinese investors would invest more without these sanctions. They are reluctant because their financial institutions might get penalized by the West for ignoring the sanctions regime.


    Recent visit of Kerry is nothing, and will amount to nothing.  Merkel simply stated that Russia should give back Crimea.  So both visits were garbage and that is just that.  Kerry is a horse faced, two bit loser who is all talk.  If they mean it, they would have actually pushed Poroshenko out or down.  But now Poroshenko is going to do what he wants, because the US is actually helping them do it, and convincing them.  Merkel is a two bit loser as well who should be impeached already for all the spying allegations and what not, but that wont happen.  She is so deep in the US pocket, that it isn't even funny anymore.

    Do you honestly expect them to flat out say "Poroshenko, we don't support you anymore, solve your BS on your own"? That's not how geopolitics work I'm afraid. Kerry has already signaled to Poroshenko that US support for him is dwindling. It's not important what's been said at these meetings. The most important part is that these meeting have taken place eventhough the very same Western leaders previously pledged to isolate Russia politically. That alone should annoy Poroshenko because his domestic media apparatus is telling the Ukrainian citizens that Putin lost friends in the West.

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    Post  Neutrality Thu May 14, 2015 6:03 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    And the best:

    http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150514/1022145805.html

    Really, this makes me want to puke.

    WHAT THE FUCK? confused

    Holy shit, this is unbelievable. Disgrace of a human being. I hope he was paid big sums to spout this shit on TV.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Thu May 14, 2015 6:04 pm

    Yes, I do expect them to say that. If they truly care about what is happening. Either your with us or against us is should be Russia's motto, since US loves to use that a lot. As well, Investments are one, thing, actual development is another. There are so many failed investments that amounted to nothing, it really is just money that should never, ever be accounted for but Russia does. And no, all Europe gets from Russia is oil, gas and metals. They get so little of other Russian products, that it wont make much of a difference. Only agencies in China whom are weary of investing in Russia are the same ones with assets in west. So they wont regardless. Russia SHOULD NOT put its citizens and the rights of its countries independence, to that of an economy, especially a falsified GDP numbering system. Sorry, but it really is the case. Iran is perfect example of how Sanctions didn't work. And they are increasing their projection of power as well. So Russia is doing it all wrong.
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    Post  Neutrality Thu May 14, 2015 6:10 pm

    Alright sephernox, how would you proceed in Putin's place?
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    Post  sepheronx Thu May 14, 2015 6:20 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Alright sephernox, how would you proceed in Putin's place?

    I would tell the economics minister to forget foreign investments, pull all foreign investments the country has elsewhere, back to Russia. Start telling local oligarches that their time from robbing the country is over and that if the money doesn't come back, it will be taxed. Increase domestic investments by more than the proposed 22% to 30+% to cover what has been lot from outside. Push the local authorities to adhere the rules regarding small businesses getting tax breaks for first couple of years. Take control of the CBR and start lowering interest rates and increase money supply like KVS had suggested (as he had pointed out that there is little correlation to the increased money supply and excessive devaluation in Russia) as the Ruble is heavily underproduced and as KVS had pointed out, has forced many to resort to barter which is pathetic. Re-introduce capital punishment for heavy corruption that still exists especially amongst the oligarches and financial institutions. Alpha bank has been known for working for mafia and is trying to bankrupt a major enterprise for a subsiduaries money they owe, which is $100M. So I would make sure that Alpha bank loses their license and its assets stripped and handed to someone more credible.

    When these measures are completed, I would then openly support Donbas/Lugansk. Tell the international community what is what. Say: "There is countless deaths and the horror that Ukrainian leader Poroshenko has caused is a major humanitarian issue. As well, Yanukovich was illegaly overthrown so we will have to step in" (Much like Saudi Arabia is doing in Yemen). But instead of supplying men, I would supply weapons and humanitarian aid. And then state that once Poroshenko finalizes Eastern Ukraines republic laws and federalizes Ukraine, then I would pull back. West can scream and cry all they want, but I would remind them over and over again about their dealings in the middle east and the blatant hypocracy. West will regardless try to force troops to the Russian borders, but I would simply remind them that they are targeted. If they ever did decide to do an endeavour into the country, that would be their last.

    Problem is, Russia used the dead peacekeepers in Georgia as excuse to go to war. Ukrainian military actually killed Rostov citizen(s) when their shells hit the countries territory, by military. At that point, it should have been clear, given end game for Ukraine. But Putin failed to act. In this case, it also throws the whole Georgian excuse out the window as civillians were killed and no one did anything.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Thu May 14, 2015 6:29 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:Nearly 7,000 civilians murdered by the Kiev junta's indiscriminate criminal shelling. Denying Donbas people's request for Russian peacekeepers ultimately sealed the fate of these innocents. Would Obama have allowed something like this to happen to ethnic Americans on America's border? That's the million dollar question. But I would wager not. The American people would have never stood for it.

    If I were a Russian citizen, I'd organize a demonstration outside the Kremlin, asking Putin to provide military aid to Donbas, not regular soldiers, but arms. As Churchill once said, we have the men, just give us the arms and we'll do the job. By arms I mean good armor piercing bullets, artillery, Kornet and Metis M anti tank missiles, counter artillery radars would be enough, don't need jets, helicopters, tanks.

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-president-says-almost-7-000-civilians-killed-in-war-1.2364888

    I agree with you.

    I think Russians have become far too lazy and complacent.  The media here wishes ill upon Russians.  Many people view Russians should be killed.  And to top it all off, in Ukraine, they actually kill and threaten Russians on a day to day basis, and or people who they deem Russian.  USA and Canadian government has allowed this to happen and has even encouraged it.  So why are Russians willing to step back and let this happen to their ethnic brothers/sisters?  I imagine that eventually, after the eastern people are snuffed off, it will be Russians in their own territory next.  Do these people really want a full on war within their own territory before they will actually act?  It would be in their best interests if they were open about training and arming rebels in eastern Ukraine, and started to help others who wanted to fight against Kiev (which is something that does exist currently).  Sitting around will just have more people grow disdain for them.

    Strelkov has revealed that everything he and his men used for their operations in Crimea and Donbas were bought with their own money. Heck, they had to resign in order to carry out their operations. Putin didn't help them with a single bullet. Had Putin helped, we wouldn't be having such problems in Donbas today. The Donbas and Kharkov uprising should have happened in late Febuary, April was too late. Putin neglected Euro Maidan, which caused so much problem in Ukraine today.

    In fact, even today, after the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians by the hand of the putch regime, Putin continues to aid the Kiev junta, continues to deny military aid to NAF, continues to hold on to the false hope that Ukraine would federalize, continues to prevent NAF from regaining any territory.

    All the body armor used by NAF are bought with the money donated by the people, from spasidonbass.ru. Putin has not given a shred of military hardware to NAF. What NAF needs are armor piercing bullets, black tipped, to shoot through American supplied Interceptor body armor. Is it possible to smuggle a 7N22 5.45 by 39 round across the border and reverse engineer it at Lugansk Catridge Works?



    Last edited by Flagship Victory on Thu May 14, 2015 6:37 pm; edited 2 times in total
    Neutrality
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    Post  Neutrality Thu May 14, 2015 6:36 pm

    Very fair points. I do disagree on the CBR proposal though. Right now it's in the hands of economists. Placing the CBR under government control would trigger all sorts of unforseen reactions and I'm afraid incompetent people would dictate its policies. Let the economists do their jobs or replace them with other economists if the Kremlin believes the current ones aren't doing enough. Then a few things about the oligarcy. Taxing the rich sounds like a fair and noble idea but in fact it forces people with money to flee. Like it has happened with Bernard Arnault (owner of LVMH) who assumed Belgian citizenship to avoid the "rich tax" in France. Plus I'm afraid the oligarch lobby in Russia might be big which is why completely castrating them would be risky for Putin's support. Let's not pretend Putin doesn't hand out favors to some oligarchs in return for their support. Happens everywhere, even in the US.
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    Post  PapaDragon Thu May 14, 2015 6:39 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:........................................

    If I were a Russian citizen, I'd organize a demonstration outside the Kremlin, asking Putin to provide military aid to Donbas, not regular soldiers, but arms. As Churchill once said, we have the men, just give us the arms and we'll do the job. By arms I mean good armor piercing bullets, artillery, Kornet and Metis M anti tank missiles, counter artillery radars would be enough, don't need jets, helicopters, tanks.

    I agree with you.

    I think Russians have become far too lazy and complacent.  The media here wishes ill upon Russians.  Many people view Russians should be killed.  And to top it all off, in Ukraine, they actually kill and threaten Russians on a day to day basis, and or people who they deem Russian.  USA and Canadian government has allowed this to happen and has even encouraged it.  So why are Russians willing to step back and let this happen to their ethnic brothers/sisters?  I imagine that eventually, after the eastern people are snuffed off, it will be Russians in their own territory next.  Do these people really want a full on war within their own territory before they will actually act?  It would be in their best interests if they were open about training and arming rebels in eastern Ukraine, and started to help others who wanted to fight against Kiev (which is something that does exist currently).  Sitting around will just have more people grow disdain for them.

    I disagree with you here.

    Russia does not owe Eastern Ukraine anything.

    Russia's first and only priority is safety and wellbeing of 150 million Russian citizens, not some submissive, docile and subservient self-hating malcontents over the border who still haven't decided what they are or wish to be.  

    If "Russians" in Ukraine feel so threatened  and endangered then maybe they should do something about it? Crimeans did so. Donbass on the other hand kept waiting to see which way the wing will blow. And when they did notice that they are about to get erased they decided to protest, write petitions and waste time with some non-violent BS.

    If it weren't for several individuals with half a brain and full set of balls they all would have been jumping maidan-style for more than a year now.  

    And how do we even know that sheep in Kharkov, Odessa and other places even want to be saved from Kiev? In all this time we only seen some token acts of resistance. There were no resistance fighters attacking Nazis, no bomb strikes on UAF no assassinations of Kiev gang leaders, nothing....   perfectly docile serfs.

    When maidan started East Ukraine should have started their own movement instantly. When nazis started the coup they should have fought back and declared independence immediately. If you don't like something you should do something about it, not just bend over and take it.

    Russia is already doing lot more than they need to. Russia's first priority should be Russia. Everything else is not just secondary, it's completely irrelevant.      

    Wars are fought with money. Money is foundation of civilization, it is weapon that wins all wars, it is only thing that matters in the end.

    What Russia is doing now is fighting war on it's own terms, with money and media, and if you look at current situation you will notice that Russia is doing pretty amazing job.

    Openly using military in Ukraine is exactly what  Brussels, Washington, London, Warsaw and Kiev expected them to do, what they hoped they would do and it was something that they were ready for in order to bury and get rid of Russia once and for all.

    They were not ready for what Russia is doing now and that is why they are losing their sh*t.


    Only moron fight on enemy's terms. A lesson USSR learned the hard way during Cold War. And now you suggest Russia should make same mistake Sovs did?

    Again, RF owes absolutely nothing to Ukrainians and "Russians" in Ukraine. It's actually other way around.
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    Post  Neutrality Thu May 14, 2015 6:46 pm

    Quoting myself as my reply ended up at the bottom of the previous page:

    Neutrality wrote:Very fair points. I do disagree on the CBR proposal though. Right now it's in the hands of economists. Placing the CBR under government control would trigger all sorts of unforseen reactions and I'm afraid incompetent people would dictate its policies. Let the economists do their jobs or replace them with other economists if the Kremlin believes the current ones aren't doing enough. Then a few things about the oligarcy. Taxing the rich sounds like a fair and noble idea but in fact it forces people with money to flee. Like it has happened with Bernard Arnault (owner of LVMH) who assumed Belgian citizenship to avoid the "rich tax" in France. Plus I'm afraid the oligarch lobby in Russia might be big which is why completely castrating them would be risky for Putin's support. Let's not pretend Putin doesn't hand out favors to some oligarchs in return for their support. Happens everywhere, even in the US.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Thu May 14, 2015 6:49 pm

    I shudder to think, had the putch regime continued shelling Donbas with cluster munitions, ballistic missiles and anything else you can think of barring nukes, and let's say hundreds of thousands of civilians get killed, would Putin act? I shudder to think he wouldn't have, simply allowing civilians to get massacred.

    If I were a Russian citizen, I'd be outside the Kremlin organizing a demonstration demanding Putin defend the people of Donbas by providing military hardware, bullets and rifles will do, to the people of Donbas.

    PapaDragon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:........................................

    If I were a Russian citizen, I'd organize a demonstration outside the Kremlin, asking Putin to provide military aid to Donbas, not regular soldiers, but arms. As Churchill once said, we have the men, just give us the arms and we'll do the job. By arms I mean good armor piercing bullets, artillery, Kornet and Metis M anti tank missiles, counter artillery radars would be enough, don't need jets, helicopters, tanks.

    I agree with you.

    I think Russians have become far too lazy and complacent. The media here wishes ill upon Russians. Many people view Russians should be killed. And to top it all off, in Ukraine, they actually kill and threaten Russians on a day to day basis, and or people who they deem Russian. USA and Canadian government has allowed this to happen and has even encouraged it. So why are Russians willing to step back and let this happen to their ethnic brothers/sisters? I imagine that eventually, after the eastern people are snuffed off, it will be Russians in their own territory next. Do these people really want a full on war within their own territory before they will actually act? It would be in their best interests if they were open about training and arming rebels in eastern Ukraine, and started to help others who wanted to fight against Kiev (which is something that does exist currently). Sitting around will just have more people grow disdain for them.

    I disagree with you here.

    Russia does not owe Eastern Ukraine anything.

    Russia's first and only priority is safety and wellbeing of 150 million Russian citizens, not some submissive, docile and subservient self-hating malcontents over the border who still haven't decided what they are or wish to be.

    If "Russians" in Ukraine feel so threatened and endangered then maybe they should do something about it? Crimeans did so. Donbass on the other hand kept waiting to see which way the wing will blow. And when they did notice that they are about to get erased they decided to protest, write petitions and waste time with some non-violent BS.

    If it weren't for several individuals with half a brain and full set of balls they all would have been jumping maidan-style for more than a year now.

    And how do we even know that sheep in Kharkov, Odessa and other places even want to be saved from Kiev? In all this time we only seen some token acts of resistance. There were no resistance fighters attacking Nazis, no bomb strikes on UAF no assassinations of Kiev gang leaders, nothing.... perfectly docile serfs.

    When maidan started East Ukraine should have started their own movement instantly. When nazis started the coup they should have fought back and declared independence immediately. If you don't like something you should do something about it, not just bend over and take it.

    Russia is already doing lot more than they need to. Russia's first priority should be Russia. Everything else is not just secondary, it's completely irrelevant.

    Wars are fought with money. Money is foundation of civilization, it is weapon that wins all wars, it is only thing that matters in the end.

    What Russia is doing now is fighting war on it's own terms, with money and media, and if you look at current situation you will notice that Russia is doing pretty amazing job.

    Openly using military in Ukraine is exactly what Brussels, Washington, London, Warsaw and Kiev expected them to do, what they hoped they would do and it was something that they were ready for in order to bury and get rid of Russia once and for all.

    They were not ready for what Russia is doing now and that is why they are losing their sh*t.


    Only moron fight on enemy's terms. A lesson USSR learned the hard way during Cold War. And now you suggest Russia should make same mistake Sovs did?

    Again, RF owes absolutely nothing to Ukrainians and "Russians" in Ukraine. It's actually other way around.

    If the people of Russia, including and especially the president of Russia, do not defend ethnic Russians right across the border, which by the way NAF have taken, then how can the rest of the world respect Russia and Russians?
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    Post  Khepesh Thu May 14, 2015 7:25 pm

    Possibly Kiev tries to organise a casus belli in Avdeevka today, or to gradually build one. A resident has said that Ukranian journalists were at school 2 within five minutes and seemed to already know everything that happened. It is thought that the shelling of Avdeevka was by ukrops themselves firing mortars. Likely this will be yet another incident that we will never know the truth of until after the war, if ever.
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    Post  PapaDragon Thu May 14, 2015 7:27 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:I shudder to think, had the putch regime continued shelling Donbas with cluster munitions, ballistic missiles and anything else you can think of barring nukes, and let's say hundreds of thousands of civilians get killed, would Putin act? I shudder to think he wouldn't have, simply allowing civilians to get massacred.

    If I were a Russian citizen, I'd be outside the Kremlin organizing a demonstration demanding Putin defend the people of Donbas by providing military hardware, bullets and rifles will do, to the people of Donbas.

    ......................................................................

    If the people of Russia, including and especially the president of Russia, do not defend ethnic Russians right across the border, which by the way NAF have taken, then how can the rest of the world respect Russia and Russians?


    Ethnic Russian right across the border are being defended. You can't expect others to do everything for you, you need to get of your ass first. Those that did got the weapons and gear that they need. Hell, even manpower...

    I too would like for Russia become powerful and self-sufficient enough to be able to do whatever they feel like, USA-style, but that moment is still some way of.

    Soon yes, but not now, not yet...

    Also, Russia (or any country for that matter) does not need respect of the world. They had plenty of respect from the world back in the 90's. Did it do them any good? What they need is for world to fear them.

    Does anyone today respect USA? No, they don't. Fear them, yes, and that is only thing that matters.

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    Post  PapaDragon Thu May 14, 2015 7:32 pm

    And right on cue:

    Russia has refused to forgive the debts of Ukraine

    http://lenta.ru/news/2015/05/14/ukrdebt/

    Machine translation:


    Russia will not participate in the debt restructuring of Ukraine. This was announced by Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak, reports Tass .

    "No, we will not engage in debt transactions," - said the official. He also said that in June, Moscow expects from Kiev payment of the next tranche of the loan.

    Russia is one of the bondholders of Kiev - it owns bonds for 3 billion dollars. In June 2014 Ukraine paid $ 73.3 million in December - is still 75.5 million...................

    This is how you fight and win wars in this day and age. Twisted Evil
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #13 - Page 24 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #13

    Post  PapaDragon Thu May 14, 2015 8:27 pm

    I wonder why.... Cool

    Ukraine Still Doesn't Have A Deal With Its Creditors

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/05/13/ukraine-still-doesnt-have-a-deal-with-its-creditors/

    Ukraine’s high-touted “$40 billion bailout” from the IMF was always a lot less than meets the eye. Much of the money had already been promised to Ukraine in an earlier lending operation, and the amount of genuinely new funding was rather modest. Even more importantly, roughly $15 billion of the $40 billion in “assistance” provided by the IMF was actually predicated on the successful outcome of negotiations with Ukraine’s creditors. That is to say that more than a third of the total bailout wasn’t money that the IMF gave Ukraine, it was money that the IMF assumed Ukraine would save by defaulting on its debts.

    Now the IMF itself really own any of Ukraine’s sovereign debt nor does it have any authority over the people who do. The people who actually own Ukraine’s debt are (quite understandably!) not terribly enthusiastic about a process that seeks to massively reduce its value. In other words, there were never any guarantee that the IMF’s target of $15 billion in savings was going to be met and there was always the chance that negotiations between Ukraine and its creditors were going to turn ugly.

    Well, according to stories from both Reuters and The Financial Times things are turning ugly. Quite spectacularly ugly, in fact. Here’s how the FT reported on the situation:


       Claiming that the creditor committee refused “despite numerous requests” to reveal its membership, the finance ministry stressed that it and debtholders needed by June “to agree on a sustainable debt level and debt service objectives meeting the targets” of an International Monetary Fund programme granted earlier this year.

       “The ministry is committed to transparency, responsiveness and good faith negotiations and expects the creditors’ committee to do the same,” Kiev added.

    In the usually restrained tone of government finance, that is basically the equivalent of a bar fight.

    In its statements about the ongoing negotiations, Ukraine has taken a very strange rhetorical line that fixates on the achievement of the IMF’s objectives. But the international creditors, which appear to be informally led by the Franklin Templeton investment firm, are not a part of the IMF program. They did not buy Ukraine’s debt in order to achieve macroeconomic stability and they are not particularly concerned with the long-term health of Ukraine’s government finances. Their primary interest, their only interest really, is for Ukraine to pay its bills on time and in full.

    Ukraine’s creditors are taking a very aggressive approach that entirely rejects the IMF’s demands for a “haircut” on the value of their holdings. Depending on how the negotiations actually shake out, Ukraine might get nowhere near the $15 billion in savings that the IMF deemed necessary to achieve financial stability. And if that happens Ukraine will have a substantial gap in funding, a gap that will need to be closed in one way or another (likely default).

    It’s possible that the situation will be resolved in a mutually beneficial manner, a manner in which the creditors feel they are receiving adequate compensation for the delay or reduction in debt repayment and in which Ukraine’s government gains a sufficient financial cushion. It seems a lot more likely, though, that the current standoff will not be resolved cleanly and that rather than a calm and orderly process Ukraine will actually suffer a messy default.

    Western governments have the financial resources at their disposal to swiftly and easily resolve this particular dispute, but despite their strong rhetorical commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty they have been singularly unwilling to put up any money. As things stand, however, Ukraine’s short-term economic future hinges largely on the outcome of negotiations that, to all appearances, are spinning out of control.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #13 - Page 24 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #13

    Post  flamming_python Thu May 14, 2015 8:44 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:........................................

    If I were a Russian citizen, I'd organize a demonstration outside the Kremlin, asking Putin to provide military aid to Donbas, not regular soldiers, but arms. As Churchill once said, we have the men, just give us the arms and we'll do the job. By arms I mean good armor piercing bullets, artillery, Kornet and Metis M anti tank missiles, counter artillery radars would be enough, don't need jets, helicopters, tanks.

    I agree with you.

    I think Russians have become far too lazy and complacent.  The media here wishes ill upon Russians.  Many people view Russians should be killed.  And to top it all off, in Ukraine, they actually kill and threaten Russians on a day to day basis, and or people who they deem Russian.  USA and Canadian government has allowed this to happen and has even encouraged it.  So why are Russians willing to step back and let this happen to their ethnic brothers/sisters?  I imagine that eventually, after the eastern people are snuffed off, it will be Russians in their own territory next.  Do these people really want a full on war within their own territory before they will actually act?  It would be in their best interests if they were open about training and arming rebels in eastern Ukraine, and started to help others who wanted to fight against Kiev (which is something that does exist currently).  Sitting around will just have more people grow disdain for them.

    I disagree with you here.

    Russia does not owe Eastern Ukraine anything.

    Russia's first and only priority is safety and wellbeing of 150 million Russian citizens, not some submissive, docile and subservient self-hating malcontents over the border who still haven't decided what they are or wish to be.  

    If "Russians" in Ukraine feel so threatened  and endangered then maybe they should do something about it? Crimeans did so. Donbass on the other hand kept waiting to see which way the wing will blow. And when they did notice that they are about to get erased they decided to protest, write petitions and waste time with some non-violent BS.

    If it weren't for several individuals with half a brain and full set of balls they all would have been jumping maidan-style for more than a year now.  

    And how do we even know that sheep in Kharkov, Odessa and other places even want to be saved from Kiev? In all this time we only seen some token acts of resistance. There were no resistance fighters attacking Nazis, no bomb strikes on UAF no assassinations of Kiev gang leaders, nothing....   perfectly docile serfs.

    When maidan started East Ukraine should have started their own movement instantly. When nazis started the coup they should have fought back and declared independence immediately. If you don't like something you should do something about it, not just bend over and take it.

    Russia is already doing lot more than they need to. Russia's first priority should be Russia. Everything else is not just secondary, it's completely irrelevant.      

    Wars are fought with money. Money is foundation of civilization, it is weapon that wins all wars, it is only thing that matters in the end.

    What Russia is doing now is fighting war on it's own terms, with money and media, and if you look at current situation you will notice that Russia is doing pretty amazing job.

    Openly using military in Ukraine is exactly what  Brussels, Washington, London, Warsaw and Kiev expected them to do, what they hoped they would do and it was something that they were ready for in order to bury and get rid of Russia once and for all.

    They were not ready for what Russia is doing now and that is why they are losing their sh*t.


    Only moron fight on enemy's terms. A lesson USSR learned the hard way during Cold War. And now you suggest Russia should make same mistake Sovs did?

    Again, RF owes absolutely nothing to Ukrainians and "Russians" in Ukraine. It's actually other way around.

    My views exactly. Except on the Donbass, where the people did rise up in the end and its important for Russia not to abandon them.

    As for the rest, they seem perfectly fine with the situation - so why disturb them?

    Some people here have mentioned that they are Russians. Ethnically or not - no, they are not Russians.

    We have seen how Russians react in the Crimea and Sevastopol. That's how Russians should react, to an ethno-nationalist regime that attempts to repress them on their very own land.

    The reaction would have been the same for any actual Russian city in Russia. How do you think common people would react, to Ukrainian Nazis stalking the streets of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Orenburg, Ulyanovsk, etc... do you think that they will tolerated?
    Do you think that people would say 'what Nazis?'.
    Or 'it's all Putler's fault!'
    Or 'we just want to get on with our lives, we're working people'

    No - the Nazis will be kicked to death on the street in any Russian city in a matter of hours of them arriving. I doubt the authorities would even be able to stop them being mobbed and lynched.

    In Odessa, Nikolayev, Zaporozhia, Kherson, etc... that doesn't happen. The Nazis rule the night. And they rule the day. No-one does anything against them. So, one can only assume, that people there are quite content to live with them, really.
    In occupied areas of the Donbass, people's discontent with them is very real and visible; yet still they do nothing. The Donbass wouldn't have been able to even keep half itself out of Ukrainian hands, without extensive Russian assistance. Even there - the people are not really bothered.
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    Post  Neutrality Thu May 14, 2015 8:59 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:I wonder why.... Cool

    Ukraine Still Doesn't Have A Deal With Its Creditors

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/05/13/ukraine-still-doesnt-have-a-deal-with-its-creditors/

    This is one of those crucial moments to force Kiev to respect and FULLY implement the agreements that they, themselves, are part of. The creditors should allow Kiev to restructure their debt ONLY if Kiev:

    -Amends the constitution and approves federalization
    -Approves DNR/LNR special status
    -immediate stop to all hostilities
    -withdrawal of ALL equipment and soldiers from the frontline

    If not, just let these fucks bankrupt themselves. Soon after that they'll have a counter-revolution and allow to remove this scum from the government.
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    Post  gregoire Thu May 14, 2015 10:06 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:........................................

    If I were a Russian citizen, I'd organize a demonstration outside the Kremlin, asking Putin to provide military aid to Donbas, not regular soldiers, but arms. As Churchill once said, we have the men, just give us the arms and we'll do the job. By arms I mean good armor piercing bullets, artillery, Kornet and Metis M anti tank missiles, counter artillery radars would be enough, don't need jets, helicopters, tanks.

    I agree with you.

    I think Russians have become far too lazy and complacent.  The media here wishes ill upon Russians.  Many people view Russians should be killed.  And to top it all off, in Ukraine, they actually kill and threaten Russians on a day to day basis, and or people who they deem Russian.  USA and Canadian government has allowed this to happen and has even encouraged it.  So why are Russians willing to step back and let this happen to their ethnic brothers/sisters?  I imagine that eventually, after the eastern people are snuffed off, it will be Russians in their own territory next.  Do these people really want a full on war within their own territory before they will actually act?  It would be in their best interests if they were open about training and arming rebels in eastern Ukraine, and started to help others who wanted to fight against Kiev (which is something that does exist currently).  Sitting around will just have more people grow disdain for them.

    I disagree with you here.

    Russia does not owe Eastern Ukraine anything.

    Russia's first and only priority is safety and wellbeing of 150 million Russian citizens, not some submissive, docile and subservient self-hating malcontents over the border who still haven't decided what they are or wish to be.  

    If "Russians" in Ukraine feel so threatened  and endangered then maybe they should do something about it? Crimeans did so. Donbass on the other hand kept waiting to see which way the wing will blow. And when they did notice that they are about to get erased they decided to protest, write petitions and waste time with some non-violent BS.

    If it weren't for several individuals with half a brain and full set of balls they all would have been jumping maidan-style for more than a year now.  

    And how do we even know that sheep in Kharkov, Odessa and other places even want to be saved from Kiev? In all this time we only seen some token acts of resistance. There were no resistance fighters attacking Nazis, no bomb strikes on UAF no assassinations of Kiev gang leaders, nothing....   perfectly docile serfs.

    When maidan started East Ukraine should have started their own movement instantly. When nazis started the coup they should have fought back and declared independence immediately. If you don't like something you should do something about it, not just bend over and take it.

    Russia is already doing lot more than they need to. Russia's first priority should be Russia. Everything else is not just secondary, it's completely irrelevant.      

    Wars are fought with money. Money is foundation of civilization, it is weapon that wins all wars, it is only thing that matters in the end.

    What Russia is doing now is fighting war on it's own terms, with money and media, and if you look at current situation you will notice that Russia is doing pretty amazing job.

    Openly using military in Ukraine is exactly what  Brussels, Washington, London, Warsaw and Kiev expected them to do, what they hoped they would do and it was something that they were ready for in order to bury and get rid of Russia once and for all.

    They were not ready for what Russia is doing now and that is why they are losing their sh*t.


    Only moron fight on enemy's terms. A lesson USSR learned the hard way during Cold War. And now you suggest Russia should make same mistake Sovs did?

    Again, RF owes absolutely nothing to Ukrainians and "Russians" in Ukraine. It's actually other way around.

    My views exactly. Except on the Donbass, where the people did rise up in the end and its important for Russia not to abandon them.

    As for the rest, they seem perfectly fine with the situation - so why disturb them?

    Some people here have mentioned that they are Russians. Ethnically or not - no, they are not Russians.

    We have seen how Russians react in the Crimea and Sevastopol. That's how Russians should react, to an ethno-nationalist regime that attempts to repress them on their very own land.

    The reaction would have been the same for any actual Russian city in Russia. How do you think common people would react, to Ukrainian Nazis stalking the streets of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Orenburg, Ulyanovsk, etc... do you think that they will tolerated?
    Do you think that people would say 'what Nazis?'.
    Or 'it's all Putler's fault!'
    Or 'we just want to get on with our lives, we're working people'

    No - the Nazis will be kicked to death on the street in any Russian city in a matter of hours of them arriving. I doubt the authorities would even be able to stop them being mobbed and lynched.

    In Odessa, Nikolayev, Zaporozhia, Kherson, etc... that doesn't happen. The Nazis rule the night. And they rule the day. No-one does anything against them. So, one can only assume, that people there are quite content to live with them, really.
    In occupied areas of the Donbass, people's discontent with them is very real and visible; yet still they do nothing. The Donbass wouldn't have been able to even keep half itself out of Ukrainian hands, without extensive Russian assistance. Even there - the people are not really bothered.

    I agree up to the point when you wrote that people in Odessa, Nikolayev, Zaporozhia, Kherson, etc are content with the situation as is. They aren't and you must know that.
    To my understanding the ukrainian secret police and not so secret nazis have a pretty tight terror regime running. People can get accused of anything using their facebook pages, skype talkes, twitter tweets and so on. It's clear they get a big help from the americans in this. It is still early, slowly but surely these people will fight back since this is human nature. And since these people get to feel more "russian" by the day this WILL happen.
    Porky-shenko today announced he will ignore this pseudo-peace and fight to the last ukrainian drop of blood. Of course he is a nutcase but in this we can read the desperation of his masters (it is clear to me the american leadership is splintered and suffers from a severe case of psychotic psychopathic schizophrenia).
    I will promise you this. Everybody keeps talking of the long game but things can turn around really quick and NATO nor the US will be able to do anything about it. They seem to think they are in control or have the steeringwheel but they don't. A terrorised people discovering its strenght is in its numbers is terrifying and the nazis will soon find out.
    (Nazis (and their heritage) seem to follow NATO and the US where ever it goes. Isn't that strange?)
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Thu May 14, 2015 10:18 pm

    flamming_python wrote:My views exactly. Except on the Donbass, where the people did rise up in the end and its important for Russia not to abandon them.

    As for the rest, they seem perfectly fine with the situation - so why disturb them?

    Opposition in other parts of Ukraine was suppressed by force. It's not fair to say they were fine with it.

    Donbass could only successfully resist against the whole Ukrainian army + paramilitary pro-Kiev forces thanks to a long border with Russia and a large majority against Kiev.

    gregoire wrote:I agree up to the point when you wrote that people in Odessa, Nikolayev, Zaporozhia, Kherson, etc are content with the situation as is. They aren't and you must know that.
    To my understanding the ukrainian secret police and not so secret nazis have a pretty tight terror regime running. People can get accused of anything using their facebook pages, skype talkes, twitter tweets and so on.

    SBU and the other state-terrorists needed time to create such an oppressive state.
    And they got it thanks to the passivity of most of the South-East where people naively believed that protests alone could make a difference.
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    Post  Erk Thu May 14, 2015 10:26 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Alright sephernox, how would you proceed in Putin's place?

    I would tell the economics minister to forget foreign investments, pull all foreign investments the country has elsewhere, back to Russia.  Start telling local oligarches that their time from robbing the country is over and that if the money doesn't come back, it will be taxed.  
    Are you suggesting they managed to smuggle a large quantity of Rubles overseas, or did they convert them to some other currency like bitcoin in which case the Rubles are still in Russia?

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    Post  whir Thu May 14, 2015 10:38 pm

    flamming_python wrote:In Odessa, Nikolayev, Zaporozhia, Kherson, etc... that doesn't happen. The Nazis rule the night. And they rule the day. No-one does anything against them. So, one can only assume, that people there are quite content to live with them, really.
    In occupied areas of the Donbass, people's discontent with them is very real and visible; yet still they do nothing. The Donbass wouldn't have been able to even keep half itself out of Ukrainian hands, without extensive Russian assistance. Even there - the people are not really bothered.
    Because they lack nation-wide organisation, as simple as that.

    Russia's lack of ideology and bad press are also major obstacles for people opposing Kiev since they don't know what to expect.
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    Post  whir Thu May 14, 2015 10:54 pm

    TASS wrote:Western donors in no hurry to help residents of Ukraine's east — Russian diplomat
    World May 14, 20:45 UTC+3

    The Russian Foreign Ministry's special envoy for the supremacy of law and human rights says efforts to assist people in Ukraine should continue

    MOSCOW, May 14. /TASS/. Western donors are in no hurry to help residents of Ukraine's embattled eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions while their efforts in other areas are much more efficacious, Konstantin Dolgov, the Russian Foreign Ministry's special envoy for the supremacy of law and human rights said on Thursday at a session of a committee for public support to the population of southeastern Ukraine that was hosted by the Federation Council, the upper house of Russian parliament.

    "Officials of the International Committee of the Red Cross are visiting people in detention and facilitating the search for those listed as missing," Dolgov said. "These areas of activity are crucial if you take account of the data on the people kept in custody without investigation or trial, which is very unrewarding for Kiev."Continue reading.

    TASS wrote:Kiev sets up field depots with 2,000 tons of munitions in Donbas — militia intelligence
    World May 14, 21:46 UTC+3

    The self-proclaimed Donetsk republic's reconnaissance has reported movement of Uragan and Grad multiple rocket launch systems, infantry combat vehicles, self-propelled artillery units

    MOSCOW, May 14. /TASS/. Ukrainian troops have set up field depots holding up to 2,000 tons of munitions along the line of engagement with the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the DPR defense ministry, said on Thursday.

    "The Ukrainian side continues to scale up heavy weapons and munitions in the zone of the so-called anti-terrorist operation [Kiev’s military operation in eastern Ukraine - TASS]. Thus, DPR reconnaissance has reported movement of Uragan and Grad multiple rocket launch systems, infantry combat vehicles, self-propelled artillery units towards the engagement line," Basurin told the Rossiya-24 television channel.

    "Also, we have information about Ukraine’s deployment of additional field depots, which, according to our estimates, are holding more than 2,000 tons of munitions," he said.
    Continue reading.

    TASS wrote:Russian official says Ukraine's eastern regions may opt for Crimean pathway
    World May 14, 15:53 UTC+3

    A member of Russian parliament's upper house said Kiev will have to treat Donbas as a special region and take account of the losses it has suffered during the military operation if it wants to keep it

    MOSCOW, May 14. /TASS/. Ukraine's eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions may opt for the pathway already trodden by Crimea, Konstantin Kosachev, the chairman of the foreign policy committee in the upper house of Russian parliament wrote on his blog on Thursday.

    He recalled a recent remark that the leader of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, Yuri Lutsenko, made in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, saying Donbas was not entitled to getting any special autonomous status.

    Lutsenko drew a comparison between Donbas and Crimea. "In 1991, the contrived special status (of the former Crimean region of what used to be the Ukrainian Soviet Social Republic - TASS), which transformed the regional council into the Crimean Supreme Rada, brought up separatism and put a part of the country into an opposition to all other parts," he said. Continue reading.

    NikVesti via Google Translate wrote:Замкомбата 79-й бригады погиб в ДТП у Ингульского моста в Николаеве
    ZAMKOMBATA 79TH BRIGADE WAS KILLED IN AN ACCIDENT AT THE BRIDGE IN NIKOLAEV INGUL
    Nikolayev, Politics - NikVesti / 21:57, 14 May 2015

    The deputy commander of the 1st Battalion, 79th separate airmobile brigade Koshapov Arthur was killed in a traffic accident tonight, May 14.

    The tragedy occurred on the Avenue of Heroes Stalingarada near refueling "Lukoil" at the turn to the Ingul bridge - the correspondent NikVestey.

    In addition to employees of traffic police and forensic experts at the site there are several dozen paratroopers 79th Brigade, the prosecutor's office, volunteers, friends and relatives of the victims.Continue reading.

    НикВести wrote:Marshall about the accident
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Thu May 14, 2015 11:05 pm

    Ivan Katchanovski
    5 hrs · Edited ·

    The "Harvard boy" is out of the Ukrainian government a day after publishing an op-ed about his long road back home. He was given the Ukrainian citizenship by Poroshenko but worked in the position of the first deputy of the economy minister on “volunteer” basis because he was not formally appointed by Yatseniuk. The Ukrainian and Western media did not report his admission in his Stanford campus radio interview that he was trained by the KGB for a Soviet foreign intelligence agent before he defected to Czechoslovakia.

    http://www.radiosvoboda.org/content/news/27016365.html

    Yes, it's true, and with this I have no choice but to leave the government. Today they blocked my email and told my team that I do not come back, "- he said Radio Liberty. According Borovik, this is due to a conflict with Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk. The conflict began in late March during a meeting. "I told him that I consider myself technocrat who has honestly tell what he sees. I think it is my Nazarite (point of view. - Ed.) Did not like. It seems to me that after he made the decision ", - said Borovik. Borovik was responsible for organizing a donor conference and the Prime Minister said that European organizations would expect to report on the spending of money that Europe and its funds provide. wrote:



    Mr Yatsenyuk, when will you stop the genocide in Donbass? – French journalist on: May 14, 2015 Frédéric Saillot interviewed Ukrainian Prime-Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk for Eurasie Express Agency. Saillot: Mr Yatsenyuk, when will you stop the genocide in Donbass? Yatsenyuk: When Putin pulls back and implements the Minsk Deals and stops the violation of international law. And when Russia is brought to justice. Saillot: You already killed from six to ten thousand people. Will you continue? Yatsenyuk: That’s awful, when President Putin conducting his far right nationalistic policy killed innocent Ukrainians, illegally annexed Crimea, invaded Donetsk and Lugansk… Saillot: YOU kill innocent Ukrainians! You killed from six up to ten thousand civilian people. Then Saillot tried to keep on communicating with the Prime-Minister, but Yatsenyuk diverted his attention to the questions of other journalists. On May 13 Ukrainian Prime-Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk visited Paris, where he held talks with French authorities. wrote:

    Source: http://www.1tv.ru/news/social/283744

    Last night, a jet of the Russian Emergencies Ministry brought 18 seriously ill children from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics to Moscow for medical treatment. All the children are in need of a highly-qualified and high-tech medical aid, which is not fully available in Donbass due to a complicated situation in its hospitals. A child, who is barely one year old, is the youngest in the group. Children have different diagnoses: oncology, cardiovascular diseases, gunshot wounds, mine blast injuries, etc. The next group of six ill children was airlifted to Moscow a few hours ago. All the children were accompanied by their relatives and doctors. wrote:

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