I really doubt the Russians are even on the verge of approaching viable
ground based ASAT weaponry, hell, the Chinese are farther ahead than
they are.
Hahahahahahahaha... that is incredibly funny... or are you being serious?
Anyone who has the technology and capability to launch a satellite can destroy a satellite.
Simply launching an Energyia rocket into low earth orbit with its 100 ton payload a big plastic bag of sand in the opposite orbit of the target.
Every 45 minutes the expanding cloud of sand will become more and more likely to impact the satellite in question... at double orbital speed... more than 14km/s even a single grain of sand will convert a fully functioning satellite into scrap metal... getting hit by thousands of grains will make it unrecognisable.
The Soviets had 23mm cannons designed to fire in space, and also developed a small missile designed for protecting Soviet satellites from US interference. The US Space shuttle was the ideal platform to fly in and capture a Soviet satellite and bring it back down to earth for study. To prevent that all sorts of weapons were designed to protect them... and if a Soviet satellite can shoot at a space shuttle it can shoot at other targets nearby... things at the same height are all moving at the same speed so a gram of cold gas propellent would be enough to move a missile thousands of kms (though not very rapidly) to hit a target. Objects higher up will be faster and lower down will be slower.
Any rocket used to launch a satellite could be used to destroy one.
The Russians use ICBMs near retirement to put satellites in orbit commercially... the payload could just as easily be nails or small metal cubes.
Regarding the S-400, if the 40N6 is big enough, 185 km in altitude isn't
out of the question. Your footprint for a TBM intercept at that
altitude is not going to be 400 km in range, though, there is a tradeoff
for using the booster to get you higher.
It would be unlikely to have a targeting ceiling and a max horizontal range in one shot as manouvering to hit a target at height will reduce energy for range.
It would likely be one or the other.
The earlier 48N6 had a range of 400km but it flew a calculated lofted trajectory with the control surfaces locked and basically zoom dived on the target from a very steep trajectory.
A target like AWACs has little look directly up capability and would likely not even see it coming, and falling from hundreds of kms means it will be falling very fast.
Ultimately, 185km is irrelevant to anything other than a ballistic
missile. Military-relevant satellites like GPS and ISR sats use high-LEO
to MEO orbits up to around 20,000 km. "Near-space" comes off more as a
marketing term than anything else.
Most incoming warheads will have ablative shields to protect them from the heat of re-entering the atmosphere... hitting them at 185kms altitude will expose the internal components to reentry temperatures and forces that will likely be more effective in completely destroying the target.
Of course radioactive material will be spread over a much wider area because of the height of the interception, but if you are lucky high altitude wind streams might spread it so thin as to be not needing a clean up, or not making a clean up viable.
Of course the increase in radiation is far preferable to a detonation.
Given that the 48N6 was already tested at a range of 400km, the 40N6 may
well be used not for long range but for very high altitude. Which will,
of course, be rendered irrelevant when the dedicated ABM/ASAT S-500 is
fielded.
I have said as much, but there will likely be a use for high altitude interception with a system that is not a strategic ABM system (as opposed to a theatre ABM like S-300V, S-300P, S-400 et al).
In other words there will be places in Russia and also likely eventual client states that need a theatre ABM with a high altitude engagement capability but that does not need a weapon as powerful as S-500.
For instance placing S-500 in Abkhazia might step on a few toes, whereas the 120km and 40km range missiles of S-400 might be more than appropriate.
They don't need to bother with HTK, they've done a good deal of work on directional warheads for the anti-missile role.
Indeed... at the speeds involved a claymore burst of heavy fragments at enormous speeds projected into the path of the target is more than enough to kill it reliably, plus it means that against a range of targets it will be effective too. For instance high altitude balloons hit by a HTK warhead at 200,000ft will receive a hole less than a metre across straight through it that might penetrate three or four internal bags of lifting gas which will cause the airship to descend a little.
Having a claymore shower of fragments travelling at enormous speeds will shred a large area and do far more damage. An airship is obviously a worst case scenario.
Now, only an idiot is firing at something maneuverable (fighter-type
target) beyond 250 km or so, so it's only really useful against large,
cooperative targets like an ISR platform.
The main problem would be detecting fighter sized targets at that range, but a dual IR sensor in the missile means the 400km range steep diving attack is perfectly possible... a steeply diving hypersonic missile with passive guidance could be very deadly to even the most nimble fighter... especially with a 150kg warhead with directional fragmentation.
The MON-50 only weighs 2 kgs and is effective at killing people at 50-70m. The MON-200 weighs about 25kgs and can kill at 200m. Imagine a 150kg directional mine... that is already travelling at about mach 6 so you don't need a lot of HE... just a dispersal charge to send the fragments in the right direction.
-The 9M96/9M96D are designed as HTK first, proximity fused warhead
second. The motors are for added maneuvering near endgame. Notice that
the canards are also hinged.
After the rocket fuel is burned the side thruster rockets on the 9M96 and 9M96D are at the centre of gravity for the missile so they don't direct the nose of the missile to steer it on a new corrected heading towards the target... they blast the entire missile sideways to jump from its current path a few metres in any direction to get the missile closer to the targets path and the directional warhead does the rest if it doesn't hit it directly.
The missile will be slowly spinning in flight so several rockets could be fired at the same angle as the rocket turned to increase the distance sideways the missile jumps into the path of the target.
-40N6 by itself isn't odd, but given the 48N6's capability to hit 400
km, I wouldn't be shocked if someone mistyped 48N6! Evidence points to
the 40N6 being a new missile though, but still...you have to wonder.
They have talked about a new 400km range missile long enough to work out it is not the tests performed on the 48N6 years ago with locked control surfaces and lofted trajectories.
I really doubt the Russians are even on the verge of approaching viable
ground based ASAT weaponry, hell, the Chinese are farther ahead than
they are.
Up until recently they were bound by the ABM treaty not to play with such technologies. China had no such restriction. I am sure in terms of practical systems the Russians will catch up rapidly enough.
They are still working on a satellite launcher based on the Mig-31 which could very easily be modified for the opposite purpose.