The Situation in the Ukraine. #16

Paul Craig Roberts, a lengthy article about how the US is pushing it's global hegemony agenda in particular against Russia.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-20/paul-craig-roberts-washington-impotent-prevent-armageddon

I agree with a lot of what he has to say.

It is up to Russia and China, and as Washington has framed the dilemma, Armageddon can only be prevented by Russia and China accepting vassal status.

I don’t believe this is going to happen. Why would any self-respecting people submit to the corrupt West?

The hope is that Washington will cause its European vassals to rebel by pushing them too hard into conflict with Russia. The hope that European countries will be forced into an independent foreign policy also seems to be the basis of the Russian government’s strategy.

Perhaps intellectuals can help to bring this hope to fruition. If European politicians were to break from Washington’s hegemony and instead represent European interests, Washington would be deprived of cover for its war crimes. Washington’s aggressions would be constrained by an independent European foreign policy. The breakdown of the neoconservative unipower model would be apparent even to Washington, and the world would become a safer and better place.

***I would like to ask the Mods and Mind to delete this post because I found that it is adundant***

PapaDragon wrote:This is the Army Mr. Holhol....  


Farewell to Arms: Over 10,000 Soldiers Desert Ukrainian Army

Desertion galore: Ukrainian men understand the absurdity of the war their government is waging.

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150621/1023647747.html

I don't get it, Western media usually says Ukrainian hate Russian soooooooooo muuuuuuuuch...

There are plenty of Ukrainian nationalists living in Russia... Even if they hate it too. The life seems to better there, plus You can dodge draft as no one really wants to get into this meat grinder. What I noticed that the further Ukrainians are from Ukraine the more "patriotic" they are.

Mike E wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:I think the focus now is turning to Crimea. Expect major air and sea blockade by the US navy based in Odessa very soon. This is going to get way uglier before it gets any better.

I'd love to see that happen, simply cause Putin has an excuse to move nukes into Crimea. 

Can't wait for the Wests' reaction to that as well...especially if they move some more AShM's into the area.

And Russia would use nukes on blockade? This is no joking matter. A blockade would be devastating to Crimea.

par far wrote:The Novorossiyan army should be given the chance to drive these thugs back from shelling. You guys are right Oddesa and Crimea are going to be the next hot spot.

Crimea - a hot spot? Can You tell us more?
Russian contingent in Crimea is way too hard to crack for Ukraine. I can't imagine Ukrainian assault through narrow. Perekop, Voloshyne would be killing grounds. If they can't do anything significant against DNR, LNR, then I imagine fighting two fronts against stronger enemy would be a blunder. Not to mention that Russia bolstered their presence so they have more aviation, artillery, air defence and etc.

Biryukov wrote:“The Saxons cost us around 51,000 pounds apiece. With proper use we could be getting a whole lot of them. They are better than the (Russian-made) UAZ-452, or UAZ-469, aren’t they?”

How many bukhankas and kozliks can be bought for a single Saxon?

And more importantly how are those monsters supposed to replace the capabilities of both off-road vans and off-road SUVs in daily use? It's not like you can use them for many tasks outside their intended role.

2 Maidan soldiers KIA and 6 more WIA yesterday.

Werewolf wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:2 Maidan soldiers KIA and 6 more WIA yesterday.

You keep reporting such WIA and KIA at Maidan but did not provide a single source so far, it would be recommended to post a source for this.

http://lenta.ru/news/2015/06/21/ato/

Lenta is quoting RBK-Ukraine. So it's legit.

The terrible consequences of the war of attrition for Kiev makes their soldiers also very nervous. I bet there are many commanders angry because they can't go on an offensive. Right now it's all about who goes on an offensive first. I've been thinking about a potential tactical move the NAF could do. It's a stupid one military wise but could pay off politicially wise. NAF could retreat from 1 insignificant village (small one), let the Ukrainians take it and clearly show that it's them who have violated the ceasefire. I understand that this move could as much fail as it could work. The OSCE would be forced to report this or face serious (official) reputation damage.

whir wrote:

Biryukov wrote:“The Saxons cost us around 51,000 pounds apiece. With proper use we could be getting a whole lot of them. They are better than the (Russian-made) UAZ-452, or UAZ-469, aren’t they?”

How many bukhankas and kozliks can be bought for a single Saxon?

And more importantly how are those monsters supposed to replace the capabilities of both off-road vans and off-road SUVs in daily use? It's not like you can use them for many tasks outside their intended role.

Had they bothered to read instruction manual (or at least wikipedia) they would know that Saxons were designed to move troops during Cold War across paved roads in west Europe, from bases to areas of operations where they would transfer into real combat wheicles.

They were never intended to swim trough mud pits of rural east Europe, only combat four wheeler that can do that with any certainty of not getting stuck is GAZ Tiger.

Quoting myself.

Neutrality wrote:Lenta is quoting RBK-Ukraine. So it's legit.

The terrible consequences of the war of attrition for Kiev makes their soldiers also very nervous. I bet there are many commanders angry because they can't go on an offensive. Right now it's all about who goes on an offensive first. I've been thinking about a potential tactical move the NAF could do. It's a stupid one military wise but could pay off politicially wise. NAF could retreat from 1 insignificant village (small one), let the Ukrainians take it and clearly show that it's them who have violated the ceasefire. I understand that this move could as much fail as it could work. The OSCE would be forced to report this or face serious (official) reputation damage.

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:New video from Artyom Grishanov, "Enemy at the Gates"

This guy makes very powerful videos.

Great video!!

Neutrality wrote:http://lenta.ru/news/2015/06/21/ato/

Lenta is quoting RBK-Ukraine. So it's legit.

The terrible consequences of the war of attrition for Kiev makes their soldiers also very nervous. I bet there are many commanders angry because they can't go on an offensive. Right now it's all about who goes on an offensive first. I've been thinking about a potential tactical move the NAF could do. It's a stupid one military wise but could pay off politicially wise. NAF could retreat from 1 insignificant village (small one), let the Ukrainians take it and clearly show that it's them who have violated the ceasefire. I understand that this move could as much fail as it could work. The OSCE would be forced to report this or face serious (official) reputation damage.

Such small amounts of casuality won't beat Maidan. It's only a small fraction of casualties in Syria which is a never ending war.

Maidan will not make an offensive. Maidan's objective is to level Donetsk with heavy artillery and win the war that way.

Flagship Victory wrote:

Mike E wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:I think the focus now is turning to Crimea. Expect major air and sea blockade by the US navy based in Odessa very soon. This is going to get way uglier before it gets any better.

I'd love to see that happen, simply cause Putin has an excuse to move nukes into Crimea. 

Can't wait for the Wests' reaction to that as well...especially if they move some more AShM's into the area.

And Russia would use nukes on blockade? This is no joking matter. A blockade would be devastating to Crimea.

A blockade is an act of war. No way that the US will try to blockade the Crimea; things will instantly escelate to DEFCON 2.
The next step would be for the Russians to simply ignore the blockade and run it anyway, at which point the Americans would have the choice of either starting WW3 or not, and of course they would do nothing at that stage. After that the American ships would be rammed and bludgeoned in order to make way for non-Russian shipping; all sorts of ugliness.

The Soviets tried a blockade in Berlin in 1948; however even they didn't dare to shoot down the American resupply aircraft that came in.

flamming_python wrote:A blockade is an act of war. No way that the US will try to blockade the Crimea; things will instantly escelate to DEFCON 2.
The next step would be for the Russians to simply ignore the blockade and run it anyway, at which point the Americans would have the choice of either starting WW3 or not, and of course they would do nothing at that stage. After that the American ships would be rammed and bludgeoned in order to make way for non-Russian shipping; all sorts of ugliness.

The Soviets tried a blockade in Berlin in 1948; however even they didn't dare to shoot down the American resupply aircraft that came in.

Maidan already cut water to Crimea and Russia did nothing. What makes you so sure Russia would go to DEFCON if the US navy blockades Crimea from Odessa?

Neutrality wrote:

The terrible consequences of the war of attrition for Kiev makes their soldiers also very nervous. I bet there are many commanders angry because they can't go on an offensive. Right now it's all about who goes on an offensive first. I've been thinking about a potential tactical move the NAF could do. It's a stupid one military wise but could pay off politicially wise. NAF could retreat from 1 insignificant village (small one), let the Ukrainians take it and clearly show that it's them who have violated the ceasefire. I understand that this move could as much fail as it could work. The OSCE would be forced to report this or face serious (official) reputation damage.

Been suggested, a sort of modern Gleiwitz. But very risky and very limited number of suitable locations. Cannot be around Donetsk as ukrops are already too close and more ground cannot be lost to them, and an advance of the scale needed would likely cause a mass voluntary evacuation of civilians with all the problems that causes. Any prior evacuation would be noticed and commented on. Elenovka and Dokuchaevsk are too important and protect the south of Donetsk. Any loss of ground there will be very bad. The area south from Dokuchaevsk to Mariupol is mostly open countryside with only a few small villages on the front line and looks suitable, but there is not much manoeuvre room behind the front and if it goes wrong then ukrops could be at the border within hours and cut off Azovsk, well, in strictly legalistic terms concerning international borders. I cannot see an change in the front from Lugansk to the border or along the Donets until we are already in a general war stage. Seems only Pervomaisk seems to fit for such a gamble. Perhaps the loss of a city is not needed, only that ukrops are advancing well beyond their front lines and in clear violation of Minsk, but they already are....

Will you guys stop answering this FV t*^&l and his two alteregos?

Transcript of meeting between Klichko and McCain were it was discussed that by 2019 Ukraine military will be strong enough to take Kuban. Hardly needs translating......

(Виталий Кличко): О-о-о!
(Джон Маккейн): Fab!
(Виталий Кличко): Э-э-э-э-э…
(Джон Маккейн): Uh-huh.
(Виталий Кличко): Мнэ-э-э-э…
(Джон Маккейн): Holy moley.
(Виталий Кличко): Ну-э-э-э-э-э…
(Джон Маккейн): Holy cow.
(Виталий Кличко): Мда-а-а-а…
(Джон Маккейн): Phew!
(Виталий Кличко): Ну-у-у-у-у…
(Джон Маккейн): Uh-huh.
(Виталий Кличко): Э-э-э-э-э…
(Джон Маккейн): Uh-huh.
(Виталий Кличко): Ы-ы-ы-ы-ы…
(Джон Маккейн): Uh-huh.
(Виталий Кличко): У-у-у-у-э-э-э.
(Джон Маккейн): Uh-huh.

These two are so stupid it is even possible to believe this could be real and not a spoof, or is it....... http://news-front.info/2015/06/21/opublikovana-stenogramma-vstrechi-klichko-i-makkejna/

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

The terrible consequences of the war of attrition for Kiev makes their soldiers also very nervous. I bet there are many commanders angry because they can't go on an offensive. Right now it's all about who goes on an offensive first. I've been thinking about a potential tactical move the NAF could do. It's a stupid one military wise but could pay off politicially wise. NAF could retreat from 1 insignificant village (small one), let the Ukrainians take it and clearly show that it's them who have violated the ceasefire. I understand that this move could as much fail as it could work. The OSCE would be forced to report this or face serious (official) reputation damage.

Been suggested, a sort of modern Gleiwitz. But very risky and very limited number of suitable locations. Cannot be around Donetsk as ukrops are already too close and more ground cannot be lost to them, and an advance of the scale needed would likely cause a mass voluntary evacuation of civilians with all the problems that causes. Any prior evacuation would be noticed and commented on. Elenovka and Dokuchaevsk are too important and protect the south of Donetsk. Any loss of ground there will be very bad. The area south from Dokuchaevsk to Mariupol is mostly open countryside with only a few small villages on the front line and looks suitable, but there is not much manoeuvre room behind the front and if it goes wrong then ukrops could be at the border within hours and cut off Azovsk, well, in strictly legalistic terms concerning international borders. I cannot see an change in the front from Lugansk to the border or along the Donets until we are already in a general war stage. Seems only Pervomaisk seems to fit for such a gamble. Perhaps the loss of a city is not needed, only that ukrops are advancing well beyond their front lines and in clear violation of Minsk, but they already are....

I see what you're saying. Perhaps it should be a place that resembles a cauldron on satellite images so in case the Ukrops decide to station artillery there the NAF can hit them back with ease, preferably from high ground. Maybe even photograph artillery as evidence for the OSCE. Ofcourse, I'm merely describing a perfect scenario but nothing is ever perfect nor do things go often according to plan.

auslander wrote:Will you guys stop answering this FV t*^&l and his two alteregos?

I call it Flagship Haushofer...

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:Will you guys stop answering this FV t*^&l and his two alteregos?

I call it Flagship Haushofer...

You hit that nail square on the head.

Sputnik wrote:Russia stands for keeping Ukraine in its current territorial borders and insists on the implementation of the Minsk agreements by all parties to the Ukrainian conflict, Kremlin Chief of Staff Sergei Ivanov said in a television interview.

"The ideal is the Minsk agreements. Russian President [Vladimir Putin] was right to say in February that if Russia was discontent with something at the talks, he would not sign the document. But he signed it. Thus he believes that the Minsk accords are a perfect way to settle the Ukrainian domestic conflict. I’m repeating – domestic," Ivanov said answering a question on where the Ukrainian border should be marked.

Ivanov also clarified that this means the actual Ukrainian state borders. "Donbass self-defense forces already recognized that," he said.

There have been numerous calls to Russia to assert influence on Donbass militia forces. However, they have already changed their stance, he added.

"I believe we had a very significant influence on Donbass militia forces because they took a very important step – they changed their position. Earlier they voted for independence, but now they say – we are ready to remain being part of Ukraine if the Minsk agreements are fully implemented," Ivanov underscored.

"Kiev, in its turn, did nothing. And now it is time for those who are behind the Ukrainian government to bring pressure on it," he added.

Very good article.

Essentially, lists all the simple reasons why NAF can't make any move to defend itself against Ukraine. Russia sees Ukraine as a partner, to which it sells discounted gas. Supports its state borders, and exerts enough influence on Novorossiya to adhere to Minsk agreements while Ukraine can continue its genocide of civilians in Donbass.

But how are Minsk agreements still relevant to Russia? I don't think Ukraine implemented even a single point of it since February. Economic blockade of Donbass is still there. Ukraine still continues to attack innocent civilians. There's no telling how long this will last.

Russia insists all parties adhere to Minsk. And what are the means? The US arms FSA with TOW anti tank missiles to force Assad to talk. Russia does not pressure Poroshenko to talk.

Flagship Victory wrote:

flamming_python wrote:A blockade is an act of war. No way that the US will try to blockade the Crimea; things will instantly escelate to DEFCON 2.
The next step would be for the Russians to simply ignore the blockade and run it anyway, at which point the Americans would have the choice of either starting WW3 or not, and of course they would do nothing at that stage. After that the American ships would be rammed and bludgeoned in order to make way for non-Russian shipping; all sorts of ugliness.

The Soviets tried a blockade in Berlin in 1948; however even they didn't dare to shoot down the American resupply aircraft that came in.

Maidan already cut water to Crimea and Russia did nothing. What makes you so sure Russia would go to DEFCON if the US navy blockades Crimea from Odessa?

The Ukraine, even under its illegal government, is nontheless under no obligation to supply water to another country; or am I wrong?
You should be happy; they de-facto accepted that the Crimea is no longer their territory.

Same thing with the pensions, financial transactions, transport, electricity, water, etc... blockade on the Donbass.
It's not very humanitarian or nice, but blockades are very standard practise for countries at war.
Again, with these actions, the Ukraine is essentially recognizing the authority of the LNR/DNR governments over these territories; it's saying to its citizens there "you supported the DNR/LNR, now let them feed you, I'm done with your problems".
And for the DNR/LNR it's ultimately a good thing too - they see themselves as independent states, and as any independent states - they must be ready to provide their people with basic infastructure and social services; expecting the Ukraine to keep providing it in areas outside of its control is unrealistic.

However I think you'll find that the US actually trying to blockade Russian territory; no matter if internationally recognized or recognized only by Russia - is a completely different kettle of fish.
Blockading the Crimea will have the same consenquences as blockading Kaliningrad or the Kuril Islands. It would threaten nuclear war.