The Situation in the Ukraine. #16

auslander wrote:I agree, one can feel the building pressure, every day the bombardments are a little stronger, every day the attacks are a little stronger, every day more troops and weapons appear along the line on Ukrops side. Both Minsk agreements were simply to stop NAF from successful conclusions of ongoing battles and give ukrop a breather. It worked both times. When the attack does come, and it will come, it's going to be hard on our boys but I have no doubts the boys will prevail.

I beg to differ. I don't think Maidan would do a ground offensive. Maidan knows a ground offensive would not be successful and it would draw bad PR. Maidan's strategy is to level Donetsk with artillery fire. Doing so is good PR and it avoids criticism from Russia.

OSCE saw Maidan deploying heavy artillery near Mariupol in violation of Minsk.

http://novorossia.today/osce-observers-registered-movement-of-heavy-military-equipment-of-ukrainian-armed-forces-nearby-mariupol/


Canadian troops arrive in Ukraine this summer.

http://metronews.ca/news/canada/1405544/cdn-military-to-field-ukraine-training-mission/


Canadian defense minister says not much lethal aid Canada can give Maidan. Maidan wants Paladin artillery to level Donetsk. Only the US can provide that.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/kenney-says-canada-doesnt-have-the-right-weapons-to-give-ukraines-army/article25116785/

auslander wrote:

Khepesh wrote:"kotych" retracted his post about Shirokino and apologised for being too hasty.
I still think 5-6 weeks before war, but will not be surprised if it happens any day now and could even be the result of something unplanned, war is full of unexpected surprises.

I agree, one can feel the building pressure, every day the bombardments are a little stronger, every day the attacks are a little stronger, every day more troops and weapons appear along the line on Ukrops side. Both Minsk agreements were simply to stop NAF from successful conclusions of ongoing battles and give ukrop a breather. It worked both times. When the attack does come, and it will come, it's going to be hard on our boys but I have no doubts the boys will prevail.

Actually it's not even worth making any forecasts now as it is so volatile. But I will forecast that if it is next week or in two months, there will be a "Battle of Telmanovo" or "Battle of Volnovakha" to be written in the history books depending on who attacks first, but a VSN victory in either case.

medo wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:

Mike E wrote:The US's only plan was to destabilize... The taking of Crimea was an independent event IMHO.

Crimea was definitely part of the plan. The US planned for Russia to absorb Crimea. Or else the US would not have the motive to demonize Russia and put sanctions on Russia. What the US did not anticipate was the EU did not put sanctions on Russia. So the US had to do the ad hoc MH17 shootdown to have the EU put sanctions on.

No. US plan for Crimea was to throw Russian Black Sea Navy fleet from Sevastopol and to place NATO ships there and considering, that Novorossiysk naval base is not finished yet, that would make a lot of problems for Russia. Also US want to pump oil and gas in the waters around Crimea. Russian action in Crimea and its accept in Russian Federation was a full surprise for US and they lost a crown jewel for which Maidan was about. Other point in US plan is to occupy Donbass, that they could pump oil and gas with fracking method as this is one of rare territories in Europe, where fracking is fully profitable. The only bothering element there is Donbass population and Ukronazis have to kill them or throw them in Russia that US companies could destroy Donbass with fracking pumping. After this Donbass will be poisoned and uninhabital for a very long time, because soil and water will be poisoned. Armed resistance of Donbass people and creation of Novorussia is another bad surprise for US and destroying their plans. The rest of Ukraine is not interesting for US companies.

Good post.

Another major factor and really under reported strategic factor was the proposed Ukraine/China deep water container port on the west side of Crimea which would have provided a major new entry and exit point into the east of Europe. A kind of Rotterdam in the east. This would have been a huge generator of growth for Ukraine. Now it is possible for the Russia's SW corner and the corridor up to Moscow to tap into that potential growth as, once the bridge is built, the project can fire up again with a vengeance. This is no doubt a major factor in Moscow's decisions on bridge capacity and urgency.

Well, this is the plan, AFAIK excluding any input fron Donbas

KIEV (Sputnik) – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced he would submit a project for changes in the country’s Constitution to decentralize power to the parliament next week. Earlier on Friday, the Constitutional Committee approved a project with changes to the Ukrainian Constitution for decentralizing power and forwarded the project to the president.

“I will need a few more days and I will use these holidays to read the project. I express my opinion of approval…Next week I will submit the variant to parliament that was developed and reviewed by you, [the parliament] will vote and send it to the Constitutional Court,” Poroshenko said during a Constitutional Committee meeting. Poroshenko said the country would remain a unitary state “with no compromises.”

The Ukrainian president also said that Ukrainian would be the single state language, but regions could determine which language they spoke in. “It’s not for those in high offices to decide where best to build a school or hospital, or how to build a road, which memorials to erect, which songs to sing, or which language residents use, but the single state language will be Ukrainian,” he added.

Independence supporters in conflict-torn Ukraine's east have long sought broader autonomy and special status for the region. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, including the decentralization of power, was among the key provisions of the February Minsk agreements to put an end to hostilities in Donbas. According to Poroshenko, the country’s parliament aims to pass a bill on constitutional reforms to decentralize power in Ukraine by July 17.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150626/1023884261.html#ixzz3eBIoTklQ

Kiev says on the one hand that all of Ukraine belongs to them and on the other

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Ukraine's national oil and gas company Naftogaz owes $212 million for Russian gas deliveries to the conflict-torn region of Donbass, Gazprom head Alexey Miller said Friday.
"As of today, Gazprom has delivered 704 million cubic meters of gas to DPR and LPR [Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics in Donbass]. The debt of Ukraine's Naftogaz for deliveries to these regions stands at $212 million," Miller told reporters. According to Miller, Naftogaz has asked to stop direct gas deliveries from Russia to Donbass, and refused to pay for them. "Naftogaz of Ukraine does not answer why gas supplied to Ukrainian territories is not being paid for, it does not supply gas to the region itself, asks us not to provide it, and gives no answer to whether a trader company could sign a direct contract with us on the supply of gas to these areas," he said.

Russia began direct gas supplies to DPR and LPR in eastern Ukraine on February 19, as Kiev refused to deliver gas to these regions, claiming that the resource-transport infrastructure was critically damaged. Russia's state-owned energy company Gazprom insists that Ukraine pay for these deliveries as they were made in accordance with a long-term contract Gazprom and Naftogaz signed in 2009. However, the Ukrainian side refuses to do so, citing its inability to control the volumes of gas deliveries to Donbas as well as its displeasure that they are being conducted.

In April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that if Ukraine’s state-run energy company Naftogaz did not pay for the deliveries of Russian gas to the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, the issue would be taken to court.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20150626/1023889383.html#ixzz3eBJugsMI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHeFWbGClOE

Zaharchenko said, that DNR and LNR are two fundamental bricks, on which Novorussia will be created and they will create it soon. For now, there are still only DNR and LNR.

medo wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHeFWbGClOE

Zaharchenko said, that DNR and LNR are two fundamental bricks, on which Novorussia will be created and they will create it soon. For now, there are still only DNR and LNR.

He lost his leg? An AK-74 bullet tumbles so bad it is virtually impossible to ever recover from an AK-74 wound. That's why it's called the poison bullet.

auslander wrote:

Khepesh wrote:"kotych" retracted his post about Shirokino and apologised for being too hasty.
I still think 5-6 weeks before war, but will not be surprised if it happens any day now and could even be the result of something unplanned, war is full of unexpected surprises.

I agree, one can feel the building pressure, every day the bombardments are a little stronger, every day the attacks are a little stronger, every day more troops and weapons appear along the line on Ukrops side. Both Minsk agreements were simply to stop NAF from successful conclusions of ongoing battles and give ukrop a breather. It worked both times. When the attack does come, and it will come, it's going to be hard on our boys but I have no doubts the boys will prevail.

I don't see that.
Minsk I was the result of a successful Russian intervention on the southern front.
Minsk II happened after the NAF barely managed to cut off the UAF forces in Debaltsovo by using its last reserves.
The leadership of the NAF accepted both Minsk agreements because they needed time to recover from the exhausting battles.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:I don't see that.
Minsk I was the result of a successful Russian intervention on the southern front.
Minsk II happened after the NAF barely managed to cut off the UAF forces in Debaltsovo by using its last reserves.
The leadership of the NAF accepted both Minsk agreements because they needed time to recover from the exhausting battles.

Ukraine is way bigger than NAF controlled Donbas. Ceasefire benefits Maidan a lot more than it benefits NAF. Maidan has way more training ground than NAF has. Ceasefire enables Maidan to train a lot more new troops than NAF can. Ceasefire allows Maidan to blockade NAF and shell Donetsk. NAF does not gain anything from ceasefire, NAF only loses from ceasefire. Maidan's strategy is blockade Donetsk and shell Donetsk. Ceasefire is perfect for Maidan, because under ceasefire Maidan can blockade and shell whereas NAF cannot counter attack to break blockade or attack Maidan artillery with its own artillery.

Look at Syria. No ceasefire. This enables insurgents to capture more and more territory. If NAF was given a free rein, Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, Slavyansk would have been NAF territory by now.

The best defense is offense. Those who stay in the defensive will eventually be destroyed. Under ceasefire, Maidan can attack with artillery whereas NAF is not allowed to fire back with artillery. The goal of Minsk is simple. To destroy NAF because Putin is eager to normalize relations with his western partners. NAF never wanted to sign Minsk. NAF only signed under Putin's pressure. You see Zackharchenko has a picture of Putin in his office. Unless NAF breaks Minsk and go on the offensive, Donetsk would be destroyed and NAF become goners.

CIA started another coup. This time in Russia's ally Kirgizstan.

http://novorossia.today/usa-is-preparing-another-colour-revolution/

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

auslander wrote:

Khepesh wrote:"kotych" retracted his post about Shirokino and apologised for being too hasty.
I still think 5-6 weeks before war, but will not be surprised if it happens any day now and could even be the result of something unplanned, war is full of unexpected surprises.

I agree, one can feel the building pressure, every day the bombardments are a little stronger, every day the attacks are a little stronger, every day more troops and weapons appear along the line on Ukrops side. Both Minsk agreements were simply to stop NAF from successful conclusions of ongoing battles and give ukrop a breather. It worked both times. When the attack does come, and it will come, it's going to be hard on our boys but I have no doubts the boys will prevail.

I don't see that.
Minsk I was the result of a successful Russian intervention on the southern front.
Minsk II happened after the NAF barely managed to cut off the UAF forces in Debaltsovo by using its last reserves.
The leadership of the NAF accepted both Minsk agreements because they needed time to recover from the exhausting battles.

How moronic can someone be to come to this conclusion

Video from Prizrak Brigade against oligarchs and calling on normal Ukranian soldiers to see the light and turn on the oligarchs. For this idea Mozgovoi was seen as very dangerous and so was assasinated.

Khepesh wrote:Video from Prizrak Brigade against oligarchs and calling on normal Ukranian soldiers to see the light and turn on the oligarchs. For this idea Mozgovoi was seen as very dangerous and so was assasinated.

True. One must keep in mind that Russia is not a socialist country like the USSR was. Russia is an oligarchy. Mozgovoi was killed by GRU Spetsnaz because only such powerful troops can kill Mozgovoi without suffering any casualty.

It is already flagged up about the shelling on the airport, Spartak and Kievsky district, now in the last few minutes residents of Yasinovataya report shelling.

Khepesh wrote:It is already flagged up about the shelling on the airport, Spartak and Kievsky district, now in the last few minutes residents of Yasinovataya report shelling.

It's odd that Maidan is shelling a lot of places. If I were Maidan I would lob 10,000 152 mm shells at Donetsk and level Donetsk. Without Donetsk there is no NAF. To kill the snake, cut the head.

Khepesh wrote:It is already flagged up about the shelling on the airport, Spartak and Kievsky district, now in the last few minutes residents of Yasinovataya report shelling.

I know, and I think I mentioned earlier about the steadily increasing attacks and bombardments. There is an old saying in Russian, roughly translated: My hand has become my fist.

Nikander wrote:

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

auslander wrote:

Khepesh wrote:"kotych" retracted his post about Shirokino and apologised for being too hasty.
I still think 5-6 weeks before war, but will not be surprised if it happens any day now and could even be the result of something unplanned, war is full of unexpected surprises.

I agree, one can feel the building pressure, every day the bombardments are a little stronger, every day the attacks are a little stronger, every day more troops and weapons appear along the line on Ukrops side. Both Minsk agreements were simply to stop NAF from successful conclusions of ongoing battles and give ukrop a breather. It worked both times. When the attack does come, and it will come, it's going to be hard on our boys but I have no doubts the boys will prevail.

I don't see that.
Minsk I was the result of a successful Russian intervention on the southern front.
Minsk II happened after the NAF barely managed to cut off the UAF forces in Debaltsovo by using its last reserves.
The leadership of the NAF accepted both Minsk agreements because they needed time to recover from the exhausting battles.

How moronic can someone be to come to this conclusion

You don't seem to know how bad the situation was for the NAF.

Those who visit Voice of Sevastopol on Cassad now need to bookmark this new page http://cassad.net/konflikty/voyna-na-ukraine/ as the format of the site is changing.

Very interesting Report.. a must read.. it explain the chaotic mess that exist
between Jews and Russia vs US. How the Jews are divided about Ukraine conflict..
and how you have in Russia Jews that are patriotic.. Pro Putin.. but also Jews that hates
Russia and Putin... and the same in Ukraine.. how you have Jews fighting in both sides..
pro kiev and pro Donetsk side.. For example the Governor/PM of lugansk is a Jew..and
this also explain why the support of Lenin is strong in Donetsk and Lugansk..
In short is not a clear cut.. Jews are divided over Ukraine.. and the elite one with more
money seem to prefer more the western side and fight against Russia.

The Fateful Triangle: Russia, Ukraine and the Jews (and Israel)

http://russia-insider.com/en/society/fateful-triangle-russia-ukraine-and-jews/ri8334

ABout the Devaltsevo war.. people needs to remember that RUssia signed a cease of fire with
Ukraine when they were about to invade Devaltsevo.. so the many casualties the militia suffered
had to do exclusively because of the need to take and capture the city very fast with little
care for their own safety. Since already a cease of Fire was signed ,and Russia pressure had to be there ,for them to stop fighting.

All said ,you cannot measure the casualties of the Rebels in Develsevo as a measure of
performance.. the Ukrainians were for one full year ,reinforcing their defensive positions
in Devalsevo and the Rebels had to go in the offensive and to do it under Rush. Neither today casualties can be taken as measure of performance ,because the Rebels are forbidden to Advance and capture new zones,while the Ukies are allowed to continue shelling non stop their positions.

Probably the best measure of performance of Rebels ,was when they were outnumbered
2x or 3x times by Ukraine ,and the Malasyan plane accident.. that They formed created many
cauldrons and pushed the Kiev forces beyond Mariupol.. IF the Rebels were allowed to advance
and take new zones They will have easily captured all Donetsk and Lugansk after they encircle
Mariupol.. Because Kiev forces under retreat cannot fight back effectively.

JohninMK wrote:Well, this is the plan, AFAIK excluding any input fron Donbas

KIEV (Sputnik) – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced he would submit a project for changes in the country’s Constitution to decentralize power to the parliament next week. Earlier on Friday, the Constitutional Committee approved a project with changes to the Ukrainian Constitution for decentralizing power and forwarded the project to the president.

“I will need a few more days and I will use these holidays to read the project. I express my opinion of approval…Next week I will submit the variant to parliament that was developed and reviewed by you, [the parliament] will vote and send it to the Constitutional Court,” Poroshenko said during a Constitutional Committee meeting. Poroshenko said the country would remain a unitary state “with no compromises.”

The Ukrainian president also said that Ukrainian would be the single state language, but regions could determine which language they spoke in. “It’s not for those in high offices to decide where best to build a school or hospital, or how to build a road, which memorials to erect, which songs to sing, or which language residents use, but the single state language will be Ukrainian,” he added.

Independence supporters in conflict-torn Ukraine's east have long sought broader autonomy and special status for the region. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, including the decentralization of power, was among the key provisions of the February Minsk agreements to put an end to hostilities in Donbas. According to Poroshenko, the country’s parliament aims to pass a bill on constitutional reforms to decentralize power in Ukraine by July 17.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150626/1023884261.html#ixzz3eBIoTklQ

Apparently I got that wrong, Poro says DNR/LPR were consulted. No confirmation from them that I have seen sofar

KIEV, June 26. /TASS/. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Friday that representatives from the self-proclaimed eastern republics of Donetsk and Luhansk had participated in drafting amendments to Ukraine’s constitution. "It is very important that Donbas representatives have taken part in drafting these constitutional changes. It is politically correct," Poroshenko said. "Opinion polls support our idea of an emphatic rejection of federalisation. Ukraine will remain a unitary state," he said, adding that "there will be no compromise on the issue". The president also said that the draft amendments would be submitted to the country's parliament for consideration next week before being forwarded to the constitutional court. He asked the Verkhovna Rada to "demonstrate compromise" while approving the changes.

Authorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk republics earlier claimed that all their proposals for Ukraine’s constitutional make-up had been left unanswered.

All good when viewed from Kiev

KIEV (Sputnik) – The number of government troops deployed in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine has reached 60,000 servicemen, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Friday. "We have increased the number of our troops in the zone of special anti-terrorism operation to 60,000 servicemen," Poroshenko said in an interview with the Inter television. Poroshenko stressed that the Ukrainian authorities have made strong efforts to arm the units with new or repaired military equipment, to train the personnel in line with Western experience, and to improve logistics and financial support of Ukrainian soldiers.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150626/1023899047.html#ixzz3eByByIdV

JohninMK wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Well, this is the plan, AFAIK excluding any input fron Donbas

KIEV (Sputnik) – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced he would submit a project for changes in the country’s Constitution to decentralize power to the parliament next week. Earlier on Friday, the Constitutional Committee approved a project with changes to the Ukrainian Constitution for decentralizing power and forwarded the project to the president.

“I will need a few more days and I will use these holidays to read the project. I express my opinion of approval…Next week I will submit the variant to parliament that was developed and reviewed by you, [the parliament] will vote and send it to the Constitutional Court,” Poroshenko said during a Constitutional Committee meeting. Poroshenko said the country would remain a unitary state “with no compromises.”

The Ukrainian president also said that Ukrainian would be the single state language, but regions could determine which language they spoke in. “It’s not for those in high offices to decide where best to build a school or hospital, or how to build a road, which memorials to erect, which songs to sing, or which language residents use, but the single state language will be Ukrainian,” he added.

Independence supporters in conflict-torn Ukraine's east have long sought broader autonomy and special status for the region. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, including the decentralization of power, was among the key provisions of the February Minsk agreements to put an end to hostilities in Donbas. According to Poroshenko, the country’s parliament aims to pass a bill on constitutional reforms to decentralize power in Ukraine by July 17.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150626/1023884261.html#ixzz3eBIoTklQ

Apparently I got that wrong, Poro says DNR/LPR were consulted. No confirmation from them that I have seen sofar

KIEV, June 26. /TASS/. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Friday that representatives from the self-proclaimed eastern republics of Donetsk and Luhansk had participated in drafting amendments to Ukraine’s constitution. "It is very important that Donbas representatives have taken part in drafting these constitutional changes. It is politically correct," Poroshenko said. "Opinion polls support our idea of an emphatic rejection of federalisation. Ukraine will remain a unitary state," he said, adding that "there will be no compromise on the issue". The president also said that the draft amendments would be submitted to the country's parliament for consideration next week before being forwarded to the constitutional court. He asked the Verkhovna Rada to "demonstrate compromise" while approving the changes.

Authorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk republics earlier claimed that all their proposals for Ukraine’s constitutional make-up had been left unanswered.

Then I find this, no wonder Poro will sign it, my highlight. Minsk? What's that got to do with us?

KYIV, June 26 /Ukrinform/. Deputy Chairman of the Constitutional Commission of Ukraine Viktor Musiyaka states that the draft amendments to the Constitution do not provide for special status of Donbas. Meanwhile the final clauses will stipulate that the regime of local government in the region shall be determined by a separate law. Musiyaka told this to reporters before the meeting of the Constitutional Commission, Ukrinform correspondent reports. "As for the so-called Minsk agreements on special regime of local government, it will not be provided for in the final clauses. The clauses will stipulate that a separate law shall determine the regime. As it currently is," Deputy Chairman of the Constitutional Commission said.

How about this gem tucked away in the latest OECD update? My highlight.

In “LPR”-controlled Luhansk city, the SMM visited four locations and observed the presence of 38 trucks with Russian license plates and a banner on the side reading “humanitarian aid convoy from the Russian Federation”. The “head” of the “LPR” “centre for reconstruction and renovation” told the SMM that 16 tons of medical supplies had been unloaded in one depot and 224, 154 and 30 tons of goods at the other three locations. He also said that aid would be delivered in 40,000 packages throughout “LPR”-controlled areas including hospitals and summer camps for children; it would also be delivered through 21 soup kitchens and would also help them to support 5-6,000 prisoners located in “LPR”-controlled areas. The SMM monitored some unloading of the cargo which contained flour and cereals, but did not monitor the whole process.

Also, interesting that both sides say DNR/LPR initiate more than Kiev forces.

At the JCCC headquarters in Soledar (government-controlled, 75km north-east of Donetsk), the SMM was presented with two logbooks, compiled independently by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian Federation Armed Forces representatives to the JCCC. The Ukrainian Armed Forces logbook recorded 63 ceasefire violations; 20 attributed to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and 43 to “DPR” and “Lugansk People’s Republic” (“LPR”). The Russian Federation Armed Forces logbook contained 55 ceasefire violations; 22 attributed to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and 33 to “DPR” and “LPR”.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/167161

JohninMK wrote:How about this gem tucked away in the latest OECD update? My highlight.

Probably it refers to inmates since there are several prisons and penitentiaries in Lugansk under the control of LPR, the same happens with Donetsk.