The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

Zakharchenko often makes statements that seem hot air, and because nothing subsequently occurs are ignored. However, he has never deviated from saying that all of DNR and LNR will be liberated, and I personally have always believed him. Today he has made an address to European politicians, Putin and Obama to tell Poroshenko that the only way for peace is to abide by Minsk. I'll paraphrase the rest. Zakharchenko says that he does not want war and it has been forced on us. Kiev blatantly breaks Minsk, and that because of this DNR prepares an adequate response. The penalty for bombarding Donetsk is death, and penalty for attacking us is death. Pushilin, of who we hear more and more, has said the DNR will present a document to withdraw all weapons under 100mm and hopes at the next meeting Kiev will sign this. http://lifenews.ru/news/157593

I read this as a final appeal for peace, and appeal to the world to see who the culprits really are. Kiev will not sign any agreement, will not withdraw, and so it is now simply a matter of waiting for the news flash that war has begun. The wording is such that, IMO, it does not need a ukrops offensive to trigger war as they have never stopped war, and VSN will go on the offensive in a matter of weeks due to the total breakdown of Minsk because of continued military action by Kiev since February.

Edit: I see that the rumor of return of Bezler has spread like wildfire and would like to remind that this rumor originates from ukrops.... However, if it turns out true, then good.

1 Maidan soldier KIA and 5 Maidan soldiers WIA yesterday.

PapaDragon wrote:

''Almaz-Antey missile maker says ready to blow up decommissioned Boeing as experiment

The company says it's ready for a full-size experiment of detonating a 9N314M warhead of the 9M38M1 missile close to the fuselage of a plane similar to the one that crashed in Ukraine on July 17, 2014''

http://tass.ru/en/russia/809377

I can confidently predict that there will be no circular, regularly spaced 30 mm caliber holes from this experiment. The shape of
the shrapnel from the missile is not circular and there is a lot of it which will form a "cloud" instead of a single stream.

The present NAF leadership are usually quite critical of the decision to withdraw from Sloviansk and Artemivsk. Suggest it could have held out longer and relief forces would have soon been there. And the resulting seam allowed the UAF to split the defenses and almost win the war. They usually won't mention him (Strelkov) by name, so although they appreciate what he did,  lost confidence in his ability to command making him irrelevant in today's war.

franco wrote:The present NAF leadership are usually quite critical of the decision to withdraw from Sloviansk and Artemivsk. Suggest it could have held out longer and relief forces would have soon been there. And the resulting seam allowed the UAF to split the defenses and almost win the war. They usually won't mention him (Strelkov) by name, so although they appreciate what he did,  lost confidence in his ability to command.

The NAF leadership is deluded. At that stage they were in no position to hold that territory. By August of 2014 the situation had reversed
completely and they could have liberated all off DNR and LNR. But we had Minsk-I. This begs the question whether they have any
capacity to control large territory at all.

Khepesh wrote:Zakharchenko often makes statements that seem hot air, and because nothing subsequently occurs are ignored. However, he has never deviated from saying that all of DNR and LNR will be liberated, and I personally have always believed him. Today he has made an address to European politicians, Putin and Obama to tell Poroshenko that the only way for peace is to abide by Minsk. I'll paraphrase the rest. Zakharchenko says that he does not want war and it has been forced on us. Kiev blatantly breaks Minsk, and that because of this DNR prepares an adequate response. The penalty for bombarding Donetsk is death, and penalty for attacking us is death. Pushilin, of who we hear more and more, has said the DNR will present a document to withdraw all weapons under 100mm and hopes at the next meeting Kiev will sign this. http://lifenews.ru/news/157593

I read this as a final appeal for peace, and appeal to the world to see who the culprits really are. Kiev will not sign any agreement, will not withdraw, and so it is now simply a matter of waiting for the news flash that war has begun. The wording is such that, IMO, it does not need a ukrops offensive to trigger war as they have never stopped war, and VSN will go on the offensive in a matter of weeks due to the total breakdown of Minsk because of continued military action by Kiev since February.

Edit: I see that the rumor of return of Bezler has spread like wildfire and would like to remind that this rumor originates from ukrops.... However, if it turns out true, then good.

Just read the whole thing and I agree with you, this is the final appeal and the day to sign the additional withdrawal of weapons is coming nigh and the orcs will not sign it. However, they will ask for more time to study the document to try to delay the inevitable. We can only hope that the orcs attack us first.

I wonder how long it will take Mutti and Golland to run to Mockba this time?

Khepesh, ive just seen the news about dnr proposing to withdraw all weapons below 100mm, but really why do they bother?

Havent they realised yet that they are just pissing in the wind? If they were dealing with an unbiased party them i could understand it but the west knows whats happening and who is responsible but it doesnt care. It has its agenda and no amount of goodwill gestures or peace proposals  by the DNR will change it one bit.

That said i do support the move, i guess we have to think about what the history books of tomorrow will say. And at least when people look back in the future they cant say that the ukies werent given the chance for peace.

Edit: i just hope that NAF is damn well ready to hit them hard as soon as the ukies try to take advantage of this, if this is some more shirokino style bs then people are going to start asking questions. Im already seeing a lot of negative comments about it on vkontakte.

Rodinazombie wrote:Khepesh, ive just seen the news about dnr proposing to withdraw all weapons below 100mm, but really why do they bother?

Havent they realised yet that they are just pissing in the wind? If they were dealing with an unbiased party them i could understand it but the west knows whats happening and who is responsible but it doesnt care. It has its agenda and no amount of goodwill gestures or peace proposals  by the DNR will change it one bit.

That said i do support the move, i guess we have to think about what the history books of tomorrow will say. And at least when people look back in the future they cant say that the ukies werent given the chance for peace.

Edit: i just hope that NAF is damn well ready to hit them hard as soon as the ukies try to take advantage of this, if this is some more shirokino style bs then people are going to start asking questions. Im already seeing a lot of negative comments about it on vkontakte.

Because Kiev will not abide by any agreement. The proposal could as well be for the removal from the front line of all bootlaces longer than 100 cm. It simply shows that DNR is willing to abide by Minsk and Kiev is not. It will not impress the west, their media will not report this anyway, but the politicians, no matter how cynical, do know the reality. Before any offensive, no matter the circumstances and a ukrops offensive cannot be ruled out, the war aims of liberating the territory of DNR and LNR and not an advance on Kiev need to be very clearly and loudly made known. There is also an element of who will blink first and things may turn out different to what is expected.

ukrops ATO in Transcarpathia said to be underway in the general area of Chernogolova, which I centered on the map https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=22.608367%2C48.851363&z=14&l=map It is about 50 km from Mukachevo as crow flies. I thought they would be much further away but perhaps thought they would be safer in the mountains. http://rusvesna.su/news/1437222543

NAF announced it unilaterally withdraw weapons from contact line. Not sure if a wise thing to do. When Maidan shells city, won't even be able to fire back.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/donbas-militants-withdrawing-weapons-from-contact-line-393783.html

Khepesh wrote:ukrops ATO in Transcarpathia said to be underway in the general area of Chernogolova, which I centered on the map https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=22.608367%2C48.851363&z=14&l=map It is about 50 km from Mukachevo as crow flies. I thought they would be much further away but perhaps thought they would be safer in the mountains. http://rusvesna.su/news/1437222543

Like clockwork. Right Sector's 7-day meeting in Kiev has come to an end. I'm thinking where the protestors will go now. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:ukrops ATO in Transcarpathia said to be underway in the general area of Chernogolova, which I centered on the map https://maps.yandex.ru/?ll=22.608367%2C48.851363&z=14&l=map It is about 50 km from Mukachevo as crow flies. I thought they would be much further away but perhaps thought they would be safer in the mountains. http://rusvesna.su/news/1437222543

Like clockwork. Right Sector's 7-day meeting in Kiev has come to an end. I'm thinking where the protestors will go now. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Make diary entry to stock up with popcorn and beer for next Tuesday at 1700 local as Yarosh has called for a rally at Independance Square against the "traitors in power"

Flagship Victory wrote:NAF announced it unilaterally withdraw weapons from contact line. Not sure if a wise thing to do. When Maidan shells city, won't even be able to fire back.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/donbas-militants-withdrawing-weapons-from-contact-line-393783.html

Perhaps two fold;

1. Public relations ploy to appear the peace maker.
2. UAF then tries to take advantage and moves forward.

Rodinazombie wrote:Khepesh, ive just seen the news about dnr proposing to withdraw all weapons below 100mm, but really why do they bother?

Havent they realised yet that they are just pissing in the wind? If they were dealing with an unbiased party them i could understand it but the west knows whats happening and who is responsible but it doesnt care. It has its agenda and no amount of goodwill gestures or peace proposals  by the DNR will change it one bit.

That said i do support the move, i guess we have to think about what the history books of tomorrow will say. And at least when people look back in the future they cant say that the ukies werent given the chance for peace.

Edit: i just hope that NAF is damn well ready to hit them hard as soon as the ukies try to take advantage of this, if this is some more shirokino style bs then people are going to start asking questions. Im already seeing a lot of negative comments about it on vkontakte.

Its not really news, the hare was started running by Lavrov back in April http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/04/uk-ukraine-crisis-lavrov-idUKKBN0MV0C420150404

Then by mid June at a  Contact Group meeting it was 'virtually agreed' and after 7 July CG meeting OSCE were hoping that it would be signed at this next, still unscheduled AFAIK meeting.

The pressure is on Kiev and even if they sign up they won't do much about it, just enough for PR purposes, pulling wool over peoples eyes, like on the rest of Minsk.

As you say, in the event of 'action' (Moscow will not allow the NAF to hit first) the onus would be on the NAF either to stop the UAF in its tracks or allow it through and then crush it. The good thing about the UAF spending much of its time, money and manpower on their 'Maginot' line is that once breached, it can be easily assaulted from the rear or even ignored. There must have been an awful lot of military staff college papers written over the years on just this subject. By now, given that the NAF do not seem to have hammered them to date, the UA must feel quite comfortable in their bunkered artillery positions. The phrase 'sitting ducks' springs to mind.

If the NAF do pull back the only logical strategic reason for it would be to lure UAF into a pre-prepared trap. The tanks and mortars may move but you can bet that artillery 15km plus back isn't going anywhere and the co-ordinates are already programmed in. Also, as I have said before, in the fog of battle it is very difficult to tell just how far the shell or missile that is about to hit has come. This is especially relevant by the sea.

The NAF and its 'influencer, not controller' Moscow, will be well aware that this will make no news outside Ukraine so they must be doing it for other reasons. The timing is spot on if this is the objective as the UA will be reporting how strong they are , especially after $150M of training, the defences are complete, they need something for the RS to get active on other than Western Ukraine and next week there are serious financial issues coming to a head. Finally, as the Iran and Greece decisions are fading the Western MSN needs some news to splash, preferably about the evil Russians, in the quiet sales days in Summer.

franco wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:NAF announced it unilaterally withdraw weapons from contact line. Not sure if a wise thing to do. When Maidan shells city, won't even be able to fire back.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/donbas-militants-withdrawing-weapons-from-contact-line-393783.html

Perhaps two fold;

1. Public relations ploy to appear the peace maker.
2. UAF then tries to take advantage and moves forward.

Zakharchenko said this withdrawal does not include the hot spots, areas of north of Donetsk and Debaltseve.

These are not desert camo like the last lot and it looks like many are 'flatbed' ready to turn into 'technicals' as per the Middle East.

KIEV, July 18 (Sputnik) – One hundred High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles, or Humvees, were delivered to Ukraine on Saturday, US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt said Saturday. "Another 100 humvees for #Ukraine delivered to #Odesa this morning," Pyatt said on his Twitter.

A first batch of 10 Humvees was delivered to Ukraine in March.

As the United States continues to mull Ukrainian requests for lethal aid, a US official has confirmed that the Pentagon will deliver a large fleet of unarmed drones and Humvees. The vehicles are delivered to Ukraine within the framework of non-lethal military aid program to Kiev, whose forces are fighting independence supporters of Ukraine’s southeast. Washington has been providing Kiev with non-lethal military assistance over the past year. In April, the United States sent 300 troops to Ukraine to train the country’s National Guard.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150718/1024786498.html#ixzz3gFuu4Kn2

The NAF seem to be 'ready to' but may not actually be doing it yet.

MOSCOW, July 18. /TASS/. Self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Lugansk People’s Republic [LPR] are ready to withdraw unilaterally the weapons under 100-millimetres’ calibre three kilometres from the line of engagement, the DPR’s head Alexander Zakharchenko and LPR’s envoy to the Contact Group Vladislav Deinego said in a joint statement.

"In demonstration of adherence to the Minsk agreements, we are ready to undertake next steps towards peace. For that we shall withdraw our divisions with tanks and armoured vehicles equipped with weapons under 100-millimetres’ calibre from the engagement line for the distance of three kilometres. I would like to stress now, we are ready to do so along the entire front with the exceptions for problematic areas," the Donetsk News Agency quoted Zakharchenko.

Deinego, in his turn, said "the Lugansk People’s Republic supports the initiative from the Donetsk Republic on bringing to normal the situation in Donbass."

"The only exception for us is the region around the Schastye settlement, from where we shall be able to withdraw the remaining weapons and equipment only as the Ukrainian side fulfils similar obligations at other locations," Lugansk’s representative said.

Head of the Donetsk Republic said they would not as yet withdraw the weapons from the regions to the north from Donetsk and Debaltsevo. "They make the total of only 10-12% of the engagement line. We are ready for any-format dialogues on withdrawal of weapons from those regions. Though only with the representatives of the Ukrainian side, who have there realistic authorities and power. Those, who can not only speak, but also insist on fulfilment of the agreements by their subordinates," he said

JohninMK wrote:These are not desert camo like the last lot and it looks like many are 'flatbed' ready to turn into 'technicals' as per the Middle East.

Old image, look at the leafless trees in the background and the winter jackets of those soldiers.

For technicals they have the pickups EU donated to Border Guards.

ATO 2.0

So for all yarosh's tough talk about executing poroshenko in a dark basement, whats he actually going to do about his men being hunted down like dogs?

Is he selling a few of them down the river so he and his group can keep the status quo? Or is he going to actually do anything about it?

What he should realise, is that porky has been very timid with him but now he has pushed for the first time, and if theres no reaction he will become braver and  push a bit harder each time until yarosh is destroyed. Just like he did with the rebellion in the east, he increased military action very slowly as he got braver after every time there was a lack of a russian response.

Which just reminded me, anyone remember his claims upon taking office, 'i will end this war within one week'????

JohninMK wrote:The NAF seem to be 'ready to' but may not actually be doing it yet.

MOSCOW, July 18. /TASS/. Self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Lugansk People’s Republic [LPR] are ready to withdraw unilaterally the weapons under 100-millimetres’ calibre three kilometres from the line of engagement, the DPR’s head Alexander Zakharchenko and LPR’s envoy to the Contact Group Vladislav Deinego said in a joint statement.

"In demonstration of adherence to the Minsk agreements, we are ready to undertake next steps towards peace. For that we shall withdraw our divisions with tanks and armoured vehicles equipped with weapons under 100-millimetres’ calibre from the engagement line for the distance of three kilometres. I would like to stress now, we are ready to do so along the entire front with the exceptions for problematic areas," the Donetsk News Agency quoted Zakharchenko.

Deinego, in his turn, said "the Lugansk People’s Republic supports the initiative from the Donetsk Republic on bringing to normal the situation in Donbass."

"The only exception for us is the region around the Schastye settlement, from where we shall be able to withdraw the remaining weapons and equipment only as the Ukrainian side fulfils similar obligations at other locations," Lugansk’s representative said.

Head of the Donetsk Republic said they would not as yet withdraw the weapons from the regions to the north from Donetsk and Debaltsevo. "They make the total of only 10-12% of the engagement line. We are ready for any-format dialogues on withdrawal of weapons from those regions. Though only with the representatives of the Ukrainian side, who have there realistic authorities and power. Those, who can not only speak, but also insist on fulfilment of the agreements by their subordinates," he said

I'm not sure what this will achieve. Zakharchenko stated to DAN News, that Ukraine already rejected this proposal.

That means that only NAF will be affected by this.

Rodinazombie wrote:

ATO 2.0

So for all yarosh's tough talk about executing poroshenko in a dark basement, whats he actually going to do about his men being hunted down like dogs?

Is he selling a few of them down the river so he and his group can keep the status quo? Or is he going to actually do anything about it?

What he should realise, is that porky has been very timid with him but now he has pushed for the first time, and if theres no reaction he will become braver and  push a bit harder each time until yarosh is destroyed. Just like he did with the rebellion in the east, he increased military action very slowly as he got braver after every time there was a lack of a russian response.

Which just reminded me, anyone remember his claims upon taking office, 'i will end this war within one week'????

I disagree. Poroshenko has a problem here because he doesn't know HOW hard he can push this latest move against Right Sector. Yarosh is the leader but there might be other people within Right Sector who have a more hard-line no-soft-talk approach. If Poroshenko threatens Yarosh, he's in a losing position. If he doesn't directly threaten Yarosh but his organisation, then he loses too. The most important thing here is what the volunteer battalions in the East will do. Right Sector are IMHO, regarded as patriots of their country and they helped remove Yanuk from the power. Poroshenko is caught between walls and I love it. I wish all the wrong decisions that he shall make, on him.

Neutrality wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:

ATO 2.0

So for all yarosh's tough talk about executing poroshenko in a dark basement, whats he actually going to do about his men being hunted down like dogs?

Is he selling a few of them down the river so he and his group can keep the status quo? Or is he going to actually do anything about it?

What he should realise, is that porky has been very timid with him but now he has pushed for the first time, and if theres no reaction he will become braver and  push a bit harder each time until yarosh is destroyed. Just like he did with the rebellion in the east, he increased military action very slowly as he got braver after every time there was a lack of a russian response.

Which just reminded me, anyone remember his claims upon taking office, 'i will end this war within one week'????

I disagree. Poroshenko has a problem here because he doesn't know HOW hard he can push this latest move against Right Sector. Yarosh is the leader but there might be other people within Right Sector who have a more hard-line no-soft-talk approach. If Poroshenko threatens Yarosh, he's in a losing position. If he doesn't directly threaten Yarosh but his organisation, then he loses too. The most important thing here is what the volunteer battalions in the East will do. Right Sector are IMHO, regarded as patriots of their country and they helped remove Yanuk from the power. Poroshenko is caught between walls and I love it. I wish all the wrong decisions that he shall make, on him.

Thats why porky wont go in all guns blazing against them, frankly im surprised he was brave enough to declare an 'ato' against them. He will do it incrementally, every time he will push, if he gets away with it the next time he will push a bit more until his aims are achieved. Unless of course, pravy sektor frighten him into compromise by responding to him. Its all about how they respond.

Personally i think its starting to look like a storm in a teacup, its a sign of things to come for sure but i think we have probably been a bit premature with our excitement over this incident. I do hope im wrong though.

Yarosh has spoken again. He said that "siloviki" should ignore the orders from Kiev. I'll quote and translate what he said:

"While we're spilling blood, defending our country, they (Kiev government) are making billions in netwoth and doing everything to prolong this war."

That bold part is interesting for someone like Yarosh to say. Is he saying that he wants to end this war as soon as possible? If so, then how? By leaving Donbass?