I would say a long term ally like Algeria wouldn't be a risk and they are a good customer for Russia.
I have every confidence in the country of Algeria, and they certainly are a good customer... rejecting MiG-29SMTs not withstanding...
but who doesn't want Su-30s for the price of MiG-29SMTs?
What I am worried about is that this would make Algeria a real target for the west and it would create pressure and stress where there really does not need to be any.
Equally there are cases where the Israelis flew in to arab countries and captured SA-8 vehicles and flew them out for intel, and by paying a few locals the CIA might get hold of some new technology to make western weapons better... for no real gain.
Honestly I look forward to the day when Algeria can buy 200 Su-75 Checkmate fighters and totally dominate their airspace in a way that makes their European neighbours very jealous and probably angry that they can have a 5th gen light fighter that is affordable and capable at the same time... while Europe will still be flying 4th gen aircraft.
that's when the sales will come flooding in, and Russia should grab the opportunity not only will it help with production costs for it's own domestic purchases, but help fill the coffers for the Russian economy as well as the possibility of new customers.
Export orders are where the Russian MIC actually make money on their products because they can often earn 20-30% profit margins, which they are not allowed to do with domestic orders, and this really does provide money for tooling upgrades and R and D work to improve design and development procedures etc etc.
On another thread it was discussed that Iskander is probably rather more missile than they actually need and a smaller lighter simpler missile that does not manouver but still hits its target would be an interesting addition. They could use some Iskanders to take down the enemy air defence systems and then the cheaper basic models to hit targets once the defences were defeated.
Iskander is almost 4 tons with a flight range of 500km... a rocket that goes up and the engine burns out and then it falls down... a bit like throwing a rock... with control surfaces to allow it to steer into the target on the ground after the rocket motor has run out would either make it half the weight or even lighter, with the same range, or double or triple the flight range of the missile. Considering the air launched model and the ground launched model can evade air defences and still hit SAMs and their radar and control centres then the follow up missiles could be less capable and much cheaper and follow up that initial attack in enormous numbers.
A ground launched 4 ton cheap missile might reach 2,000km, so it could be used in the ground launched version with the air launched version that gets there first and takes out major SAM defences, while a 1 or two ton missile could be loaded four to a launcher and operate with a normal Iskander battery, where the normal Iskander missile does the SEAD prep of the enemy position and then the cheaper lighter smaller missiles clean up the targets on the cheap.
You could even have an air launched version of both cheap missiles that reach rather further and would be effective against unprotected or unaware targets...
As well as the monumental task of rebuilding Ukraine (hopefully with BRICS nations investment as well) China may well expand the one belt one initiative/silk road into Ukraine. We pretty much know that Europe will eventually go back to trading with Russia.
Well the irony is that there is a lot of trade and work in rebuilding a country, which western companies have made look bad because they **** it up and just use it to steal from the locals and their own governments with substandard materials and workmanship... it is just an extension of the corruption of the US MIC.
If you do it right not only do you transform these regions, but it encourages growth and development and pretty soon these regions will be generating tax revenue and the places come alive. Chechnia seems to be transformed... you can bet if there were areas there still broken and damaged the west would be there filming crying about how bad Putin is still punishing the Chechens etc etc. I mean all that group of nutters did was murder people going to a theatre and some primary school children and their families and Russia tries to make them out to be the bad guys.
Well enough good guys step up and take control and steer things in a much more positive direction and everyone on the ground benefits.
Weren't there jokes about how if the US could get Russia to bomb Chicago that the Russians would come in and fix everything up afterwards and the region would be transformed... it would be worth having a war to get the end of war makeover and repair.
But westerners have taken the US lead... when something breaks or is no longer useful you throw it away and get a new one... Iphones,.. old people... young people...