I don't know when a Ukrainian offensive will start but I expect soon as do many others. Everything points to a Ukrainian offensive. There has been a huge amount of equipment being brought in by the VSU. Simpler IFVs like BMP-2s to possibly advanced T-80 tanks which have not seen combat in Ukraine yet. Even intel suggests that there is a few OTR-21 Tochka tactical ballistic missiles that are now in Artemovsk. Porkins has been calling his War Cabinet in a lot lately. Attacks that should be prohibited by Minsk II have gone up in number. Towns like Telmenovo with a comfortable buffer from the front have been hit by a few 122mm Grad rockets originating from the SW direction. Rebels may need to push their stuff closer too soon.Dforce wrote:Ivan the Colorado wrote: As a result, people are going to attack you personally whether it is for a reason or not. You and the discussion about Ukraine would be much better off if you didn't post here because someone will find it provocative. I don't mean this as anything personal from me, just thought I ought let you know.
No problems. As long as the moderators are taking care of all that off topic I see no reason why those of us that DO wamt to discuss Ukraine should not be able to do that.
And, on that note, when do you lot expect this Ukrainian offensive to start? I do not understand how you reason when you think that Ukraine will go on the offensive; that is the last thing those footing the bill for Kiev wants, and in the end of the day it is the other side that needs to do something if they want Donetsk out of arty range.
Reason for the impending attack usually are linked to the current socio-economic problems Ukraine is facing. The pro-West government now in power has lost a lot of influence and support. Part of that is because the ATO zone is relatively quiet until now. Ukraine has a lot of armed gangs that are not necessarily pro-Ukraine as they are anti-Russian and the government can't control them. The down time isn't doing them much good obviously. Look what happened in Mukachevo. So reheating the ATO zone may help Porkins and his crew consolidate their power as everyone who can challenge them is busy.
The other reason why Ukraine's attack is impending is because of their broken economy. Ukraine has lost a good amount of its economy because switching to the EU severely hurt them. Now they are very close to defaulting. To survive, they rely on IMF tranches and other foreign aid. That aid came when the fighting was most intense. Now people are not very interested in Ukraine because there is nothing going on. To bring in more foreign money, Porky might think it is a good idea to start fighting again.
Of course Novorossiya wants to push VSU forces out of striking range but they are not strong enough. Lesson learned from Debaltsevo when the NAF had to call up some vacationers to finish the job for them because the NAF was in bad shape. I'm sure you have heard the NAF is conducting intensive training for a few months now though. It takes sometime to churn out a quality fighter. The NAF is looking to shove the VSU back in the long term as they certainly are not ready now.