Syrian Civil War: News #2

KoTeMoRe wrote:Kurds are political animals. They will play this conflict to gain more "autonomy". "Joining" FSA doesn't preclude them on having peace with "regime". People say it's a way to arm the Kurds, claiming they arm the FSA.
Formerly Seen Alive can't fight ISIS or JAN. Kurds are never going to accept Sunni arab rule, because it would be a "majority" rule. With the other minorities, they can in order to have a counterweight.
And don't forget, the US is changing plan right now. It's better to "share" Syria with Russia than have another Libya Afghanistan Hybrid with Russian military assets in country to boot. They aren't fast learners, but they learn eventually. The trouble is the other idiots.

Kurds might be forced/used by the US and that looks like their game plan. In North Eastern Syria they are supporting the Kurds mainly coz they want to have an influence in Syria and also coz of the oil fields and want to keep off any Russian influence.


From the looks of it, Russia/SAA will only be taking up eastern front once their western sector job is complete. This is where the western supported and well armed terrorists are concentrated, once they have softened the area and sealed off the border, they will likely concentrate more on the eastern sector. Destroying the well armed western supported terrorists has to be the primary objective and has to be done at the earliest coz as time goes, things can get much more complicated. So completing that job at the earliest is what I feel Russia/SAA is doing now.

Something very interesting

According unconfirmed reports for the first time have been used iranian (suicide) UAVs, full with explosives for kamikaze-attacks against hardened-defence points of the rebels near Aleppo...
If true, they probably use Raad 85.

Solncepek wrote:Something very interesting

According unconfirmed reports for the first time have been used iranian (suicide) UAVs, full with explosives for kamikaze-attacks against hardened-defence points of the rebels near Aleppo...
If true, they probably use Raad 85.

That's a new level of asymmetrical warfare

Im not sure if this is real or maybe photoshop since the source i quoted is questionable in its objectivity reporting the conflicts. it sort off takes an "moderate beheader's" standpoint and leaves out the SAA operations in general.

Billboard could be worse tough



anyway, here's the source where it came from. its propably known to at least some of you.

http://syria.liveuamap.com/

Airbornewolf wrote:Im not sure if this is real or maybe photoshop since the source i quoted is questionable in its objectivity reporting the conflicts. it sort off takes an "moderate beheader's" standpoint and leaves out the SAA operations in general.

Billboard could be worse tough



anyway, here's the source where it came from. its propably known to at least some of you.

http://syria.liveuamap.com/

You could have just said it was LiveUkrop ;-).

Solncepek wrote:Something very interesting

According unconfirmed reports for the first time have been used iranian (suicide) UAVs, full with explosives for kamikaze-attacks against hardened-defence points of the rebels near Aleppo...
If true, they probably use Raad 85.

I would have thought that a missile or guided bomb from a Su-34 would have done that job.

Neutrality wrote:

Solncepek wrote:Something very interesting

According unconfirmed reports for the first time have been used iranian (suicide) UAVs, full with explosives for kamikaze-attacks against hardened-defence points of the rebels near Aleppo...
If true, they probably use Raad 85.

That's a new level of asymmetrical warfare

Hardly a new tactic, the Israeli's had suicide drones designed to destroy radars for at least 20 years, in which they're was a famous case where the Israeli's angered America after they sold those same drones to China, and technically cruise missiles are suicide drones and they've been around for decades.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:Im not sure if this is real or maybe photoshop since the source i quoted is questionable in its objectivity reporting the conflicts. it sort off takes an "moderate beheader's" standpoint and leaves out the SAA operations in general.

Billboard could be worse tough


anyway, here's the source where it came from. its propably known to at least some of you.

http://syria.liveuamap.com/

You could have just said it was LiveUkrop ;-).

Oops!, it is?. i did not realized that. i'd figured at least it was the sensible thing to do is to post the info where the billboard picture came from. i have not seen it anywhere else yet around the net either.

Like i said, im not yet convinced it is real or not.

Dima wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Kurds are political animals. They will play this conflict to gain more "autonomy". "Joining" FSA doesn't preclude them on having peace with "regime". People say it's a way to arm the Kurds, claiming they arm the FSA.
Formerly Seen Alive can't fight ISIS or JAN. Kurds are never going to accept Sunni arab rule, because it would be a "majority" rule. With the other minorities, they can in order to have a counterweight.
And don't forget, the US is changing plan right now. It's better to "share" Syria with Russia than have another Libya Afghanistan Hybrid with Russian military assets in country to boot. They aren't fast learners, but they learn eventually. The trouble is the other idiots.

Kurds might be forced/used by the US and that looks like their game plan. In North Eastern Syria they are supporting the Kurds mainly coz they want to have an influence in Syria and also coz of the oil fields and want to keep off any Russian influence.


From the looks of it, Russia/SAA will only be taking up eastern front once their western sector job is complete. This is where the western supported and well armed terrorists are concentrated, once they have softened the area and sealed off the border, they will likely concentrate more on the eastern sector. Destroying the well armed western supported terrorists has to be the primary objective and has to be done at the earliest coz as time goes, things can get much more complicated. So completing that job at the earliest is what I feel Russia/SAA is doing now.

WARNING: I'm about to sound Machiavellian here, but here's a clever and powerful strategy to keep the Kurds in line.

With the eventual end of the crisis's in Syria, and Iraq, they're'll be the eventual 'Kurdish Question' which needs to be answered. Will the Kurds be reasonable, or will they be yet another front of destabilization? It's more likely they'll rebel in Iraq than in Syria, so this leaves the question, how to prevent another front of destabilization?

Here's my strategy, a dual-pronged soft power/hard power gambit, which should be sufficient in preventing a Kurdish led destabilization:

Soft Power wise they could use the oil in Northern Iraq/Syria as a way to quell rebellion by allowing the profits to rebuild the infrastructure in modest and reasonable autonomous Kurdish states in Northern Iraq/Syria....so long as they don't declare a military backed independence.

For a Hard Power measure they (Russia, Syria, Iraq, and Iran's govt's) could cut a secret deal between the Turks, in which if the Kurds violently rebel than those 4 govt's will give the Turks the secret go-ahead (while looking the other way) to carry out airstrikes against the Kurds without impunity, and it'll be behind the cover that "Because they (Kurdish secessionists) decided to secede from Syria and or Iraq, they contractually  voided the right of being under the constellation of Russian designed EW radars, SAM's, and ECM warfare assets guarding the sky's over the Syrian and Iraqi airspace." That'll be stated by a public press conference, which will be the secret 'nod-and-a-wink' for the Turks to carry out airstrikes the very next day. If the Kurds want to end the airstrikes, then they'll have to negotiate not to secede from Syria and or Iraq, and don't expect America to come to the rescue, because they've done very little to prevent the airstrikes at the hands of Neo-Ottoman Caliph Erdogan.

Kurds will likely settle for widespread autonomy in Iraq and Syria....that's just a stepping stone though for their main prize, which is Turkey. They just have to bide their time. By some estimates, the Kurds will make up about 50% of the population in Turkey in 20-30 years

---

According to oppsoition sources the #SAA backed by the #RuAF captured the grain silos area in the western countryside of #Hama
https://twitter.com/IraqiSuryani1/status/656196940422598656

----

Right in the head...(graphic)



Gif version

#SAA & #Hezbollah sending Rami the RPG gunner to his 72 goats, in northern #Aleppo #Syria. Give me a SNACKBAR!
https://twitter.com/Hamosh84/status/656106876879269888

Regarding Kurds, there is another option. In Syria and in Iraq there could be a whole nation referendum to give the Kurds independent state. After all, Kurds will be between Iraq and Syria on the one side and Turkey on the other side. Kurdistan will protect them against Turkey so Syria and Iraq could than easier deal with Saudi Arabia and their terrorists. Having independent Kurdistan will mean Kurds will have no reason to fight against Iraq and Syria and Turkey will have a lot of problems at home. Kurdistan will be a good wall against terrorism.

Kurds are far from being united - there's KDP in Iraq and Kurdistan Workers' Party in Turkey and Syria and these two disagree in almost every single area. There's so much animosity between PKK-aligned Rojava and Barzani's KRG in Iraq you can't even imagine because the former are socialist-ish and the latter are capitalist. The PKK also recently became fervently opposed to the idea of a Kurdish state, they'd rather go with a cross-border confederation of self-ruling communes in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey without threatening the integrity of each state, and this would be very inclusive of Assyrians, Arabs and Turkmen. They generally consider nation-states cancer, and I doubt they'd welcome a Kurdistan. And, finally, the YPG in Rojava is mostly allied with the FSA (note: not Ahrar el-Sham, Al Nusra Front or Daesh) and Assad has been threatening Kurds like trash for decades, there's no way in hell the YPG is creating a pro-Assad Kurdish state without first succumbing under a joint Barzani-Assad offensive. And an alliance between Barzani and Assad is also scarcely possible

medo wrote:Regarding Kurds, there is another option. In Syria and in Iraq there could be a whole nation referendum to give the Kurds independent state. After all, Kurds will be between Iraq and Syria on the one side and Turkey on the other side. Kurdistan will protect them against Turkey so Syria and Iraq could than easier deal with Saudi Arabia and their terrorists. Having independent Kurdistan will mean Kurds will have no reason to fight against Iraq and Syria and Turkey will have a lot of problems at home. Kurdistan will be a good wall against terrorism.

This is not an option, for one you'll lose a very strong negotiating tool against the Turks, and secondly you'll lose probably tens, if not hundreds of billions of Dollars worth of oil in Northern Iraq and Syria just to create a united Kurdish state which may eventual become a anti-Russian U.S. puppet state, considering how the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan is widely considered a puppet for U.S. hegemony. The Kurds will have to settle with Tatarstanization.

Cyberspec wrote:Kurds will likely settle for widespread autonomy in Iraq and Syria....that's just a stepping stone though for their main prize, which is Turkey. They just have to bide their time. By some estimates, the Kurds will make up about 50% of the population in Turkey in 20-30 years

---

According to oppsoition sources the #SAA backed by the #RuAF captured the grain silos area in the western countryside of #Hama
https://twitter.com/IraqiSuryani1/status/656196940422598656

----

Right in the head...(graphic)



Gif version

#SAA & #Hezbollah sending Rami the RPG gunner to his 72 goats, in northern #Aleppo #Syria. Give me a SNACKBAR!
https://twitter.com/Hamosh84/status/656106876879269888

Some liberal moderate music in honor of Rami the rocketman.

Just for a few dollars to die for american interests... what a horrible path to go.

Werewolf wrote:Just for a few dollars to die for american interests... what a horrible path to go.

Nope: "When we're done we West-Coasting up"; Means Once I've f***** you, I don't know you anymore.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Dima wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Kurds are political animals. They will play this conflict to gain more "autonomy". "Joining" FSA doesn't preclude them on having peace with "regime". People say it's a way to arm the Kurds, claiming they arm the FSA.
Formerly Seen Alive can't fight ISIS or JAN. Kurds are never going to accept Sunni arab rule, because it would be a "majority" rule. With the other minorities, they can in order to have a counterweight.
And don't forget, the US is changing plan right now. It's better to "share" Syria with Russia than have another Libya Afghanistan Hybrid with Russian military assets in country to boot. They aren't fast learners, but they learn eventually. The trouble is the other idiots.

Kurds might be forced/used by the US and that looks like their game plan. In North Eastern Syria they are supporting the Kurds mainly coz they want to have an influence in Syria and also coz of the oil fields and want to keep off any Russian influence.


From the looks of it, Russia/SAA will only be taking up eastern front once their western sector job is complete. This is where the western supported and well armed terrorists are concentrated, once they have softened the area and sealed off the border, they will likely concentrate more on the eastern sector. Destroying the well armed western supported terrorists has to be the primary objective and has to be done at the earliest coz as time goes, things can get much more complicated. So completing that job at the earliest is what I feel Russia/SAA is doing now.

WARNING: I'm about to sound Machiavellian here, but here's a clever and powerful strategy to keep the Kurds in line.

With the eventual end of the crisis's in Syria, and Iraq, they're'll be the eventual 'Kurdish Question' which needs to be answered. Will the Kurds be reasonable, or will they be yet another front of destabilization? It's more likely they'll rebel in Iraq than in Syria, so this leaves the question, how to prevent another front of destabilization?

Here's my strategy, a dual-pronged soft power/hard power gambit, which should be sufficient in preventing a Kurdish led destabilization:

Soft Power wise they could use the oil in Northern Iraq/Syria as a way to quell rebellion by allowing the profits to rebuild the infrastructure in modest and reasonable autonomous Kurdish states in Northern Iraq/Syria....so long as they don't declare a military backed independence.

For a Hard Power measure they (Russia, Syria, Iraq, and Iran's govt's) could cut a secret deal between the Turks, in which if the Kurds violently rebel than those 4 govt's will give the Turks the secret go-ahead (while looking the other way) to carry out airstrikes against the Kurds without impunity, and it'll be behind the cover that "Because they (Kurdish secessionists) decided to secede from Syria and or Iraq, they contractually  voided the right of being under the constellation of Russian designed EW radars, SAM's, and ECM warfare assets guarding the sky's over the Syrian and Iraqi airspace." That'll be stated by a public press conference, which will be the secret 'nod-and-a-wink' for the Turks to carry out airstrikes the very next day. If the Kurds want to end the airstrikes, then they'll have to negotiate not to secede from Syria and or Iraq, and don't expect America to come to the rescue, because they've done very little to prevent the airstrikes at the hands of Neo-Ottoman Caliph Erdogan.

I like the hard power, that would be the best thing for Russia, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey. Don't give these asshole Kurds anything, they are going to become anti Russia(they are anti Russia right now).

Cyberspec wrote:Kurds will likely settle for widespread autonomy in Iraq and Syria....that's just a stepping stone though for their main prize, which is Turkey. They just have to bide their time. By some estimates, the Kurds will make up about 50% of the population in Turkey in 20-30 years

---

According to oppsoition sources the #SAA backed by the #RuAF captured the grain silos area in the western countryside of #Hama
https://twitter.com/IraqiSuryani1/status/656196940422598656

----

Right in the head...(graphic)



Gif version

#SAA & #Hezbollah sending Rami the RPG gunner to his 72 goats, in northern #Aleppo #Syria. Give me a SNACKBAR!
https://twitter.com/Hamosh84/status/656106876879269888

Bye bye Rami, I bet you thought you looked like a real badass without a helmet...

Safety first kids!

d_taddei2 wrote:

Dima wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:We've been criticising the SAA, but Robert Fisk thinks they're tough bastards...


Everyone wrote off the Syrian army. Take another look now
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/with-russias-help-the-syrian-army-is-back-on-its-feet-and-fiercer-than-ever-a6698866.html

Not everyone wrote off SAA...
Btw, Good article and hats off

I don't think any army/military would have survived a 4 year war with the kind of odds that has been stacked against the Syrian military and Govt. Syria have been fighting a lonely bloody battle with mainly Russian diplomatic/logistics help all these years, and with Russia directly putting its might in the ring, Syria as a whole has got a fresh new life and a much better hope for the future.

There is no doubt that almost all of SAA have become battle hardened in the course of this conflict, but what we need to see in parallel is to have the Syrian military getting upgraded/modernized with new equipment and also to keep the causalities to minimum as big battles are just coming up.

totally agree with you, it isn't easy fighting a war like this for over 4yrs, it takes its toll on the body and mind, i take my hat off to all areas of the armed forces and the volunteers who didn't give up on there country and didn't give up in the fight to rid there country of terrorist scum.

They hold up, OK. But they are having big issues adapting and maintaining a great level of proficiency when it comes to fighting a small unit war. They have big issues with perimeter security and their leadership isn't able in a way or another to teach that. They have had big standoff successes and failures, but there's a pressing sense of urgency for man portable radars to go at least in company level on festungs etc. It is exactly for that we see those fvckers with TOW's roam around with near impunity. There's a whole training process to review.

TOW is not the issue. With a max range of 3.75 km, realistic range of some 2 km, it can be vastly out ranged by tanks which can shoot several km no prob. The issue is tactics. TOWs are placed on roofs and even in open terrain without being engaged by snipers or artillery. What is needed is better recon, usage of drones and thermal cameras. Even commercial ones will do the job.

ultron wrote:TOW is not the issue. With a max range of 3.75 km, realistic range of some 2 km, it can be vastly out ranged by tanks which can shoot several km no prob. The issue is tactics. TOWs are placed on roofs and even in open terrain without being engaged by snipers or artillery. What is needed is better recon, usage of drones and thermal cameras. Even commercial ones will do the job.

I gather that Topography is new to you. The TOW2's in display have a 4.2km max range, most T-72 Syria has are limited by the sights. Which are good for 3km for a 2x2 target. IR serchlight is shit over 1KM and very poor in daylight conditions. Better recon is one thing, but better awareness of terrain is far more easy to do. Most TOW on defensive positions are executions. The Formerly Seen Alive zombies have been scanning the areas for days prior to attack. That's what SAA personnel should look at, not hypothetic TOW's. There are also a lot of things that don't go right. Like the absence at company level of cheap MPR's. Most of them like the Fara 1 would allow detection of TOW fire and perimetre breach.

Syrian army pushing ISIL in eastern Aleppo ,on route to relief the Kuweires airbase

Latakia Front news...

#SAA & #RuAF are attacking Tartiyah in #Latakia , reports of many #FSA deaths including commanders
#Syria  
https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/656230582444122112

Confirmed now #RuAF Targeted #FSA 1st Coastal Division Meeting around Tartiyah in #Latakia
https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/656235148187299840


Basel Zimmo Chief of Staff of 1st Coastal Division was killed in the Airstrike , more names to follow (pics of him in link)
https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/656235562999746560

Filmed here a few days ago (around 00:50)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIq0UB1albY

Kafi Fahed, commander of #FSA Decisive Storm Division has died from wounds during clashes with #SAA in #Latakia
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/656131642893795328