Syrian Civil War: News #3

Where are we up to regarding Aleppo? Any significant gains being made there?

Note seen this before. Posted as scientific curiosity. It is the aftermath of some kind of attack, possibly thermobaric from the injuries, number of dead and the area coverage. Very strange scene.

This looks to be SAA dead. So this link has a ISIS propaganda warning.

ISIS savaging the bodies for what looked to be ammo/weapons. Claimed to be ISIS and recent, write-up in Russian.

Definitely not work safe so this is the Y Tube address not link

Fl3mAiHF1vU

JohninMK wrote:Note seen this before. It is the aftermath of some kind of attack, possibly thermobaric from the injuries, number of dead and the area coverage.

This looks to be SAA dead. ISIS propaganda warning.

ISIS savaging the bodies for what looked to be ammo/weapons. Claimed to be ISIS and recent, write-up in Russian.

Definitely not work safe so this is the Y Tube address not link

Fl3mAiHF1vU

They were dragged there, at least most of them, for purpose of filming.

Militarov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Note seen this before. It is the aftermath of some kind of attack, possibly thermobaric from the injuries, number of dead and the area coverage.

This looks to be SAA dead. ISIS propaganda warning.

ISIS savaging the bodies for what looked to be ammo/weapons. Claimed to be ISIS and recent, write-up in Russian.

Definitely not work safe so this is the Y Tube address not link

Fl3mAiHF1vU

They were dragged there, at least most of them, for purpose of filming.

Thanks, it did look really odd and that didn't occur to me. I probably got too much humanity.

JohninMK wrote:

Militarov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Note seen this before. It is the aftermath of some kind of attack, possibly thermobaric from the injuries, number of dead and the area coverage.

This looks to be SAA dead. ISIS propaganda warning.

ISIS savaging the bodies for what looked to be ammo/weapons. Claimed to be ISIS and recent, write-up in Russian.

Definitely not work safe so this is the Y Tube address not link

Fl3mAiHF1vU

They were dragged there, at least most of them, for purpose of filming.

Thanks, it did look really odd and that didn't occur to me. I probably got too much humanity.

Many armies and organisations though history of warfare did similar things, long time ago just for local population to intmidate them, today for media... bring all bodies on pile, film them, dig shallow graves and throw calcium oxide on top of them...

But ye, most of those bodies are in way too unnatural position to be on their original spot and in way, way too big crowd.

Militarov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Note seen this before. It is the aftermath of some kind of attack, possibly thermobaric from the injuries, number of dead and the area coverage.

This looks to be SAA dead. ISIS propaganda warning.

ISIS savaging the bodies for what looked to be ammo/weapons. Claimed to be ISIS and recent, write-up in Russian.

Definitely not work safe so this is the Y Tube address not link

Fl3mAiHF1vU

They were dragged there, at least most of them, for purpose of filming.

Some of them yes. Out of the 8/10 guys in the weak berm could have been simply overrun. There are "fresh" tank/caterpillar tracks. 3 groups of victims. The first on the corner of the first building. The second behind the small berm and the third that was probably trying to get out of there cut on the back.

This is simply and overrun position that was being fortified.You can hear them finishing off errands/wounded. This is what a counter attack on a undermanned, badly prepared defensive position looks like.

"Rebels seized RPO-A Shmel in Sukayk village."



However...item on a right side is not Shmel, i belive its MRO-A - http://world.guns.ru/grenade/rus/mro-a-e.html

Why Bulldozers, blog article, nothing we did not know already, i do not agree with everything written either but i guess some ppl will find it interesting.

"A defining feature of the Syrian conflict, and to a lesser extent the Iraq conflict, has been the extreme proliferation of ATGMs A repeated question that arises when a relatively expensive ATGM is pictured striking a non-armored vehicle is invariably "Why are they wasting a missile designed to destroy tanks on a <insert non-tank item>?". The answer to this is multi-part. It's perhaps important to note that every insurgent with an ATGM designed with the Fulda Gap in mind isn't necessarily the world's most brilliant tactician deliberately picking out his targets to make the most impact felt. Beyond that, the target that you DO hit is immeasurably more felt than the target you DON'T hit. But that doesn't really answer the question. Why are so many bulldozers, ammo/supply trucks, troop carriers, and similar equipment targeted by these relatively important weapons?

The success of the Syrian military at continuing to keep their far flung outposts supplied, even at the risk of airdrops that carry with them some inherent risk of being captured by enemy forces, is one of the most uncelebrated victories of the Syrian civil war. The constant effort, even when reinforced by Russian and Iranian airpower and largesse, to keep Hasakah, Deir Ezzor, Kuweires airbase, until recently Abu Dhuhor, the cities and villages of Fuah, Kafraya, Zahra, Nubl along with the major military arteries of SAA control is nothing short of miraculous. Without constant convoys through enemy territory, costly operations to keep highways open, and non-stop resupply flights, it is inconceivable that the far reaches of the Syrian government's control would have collapsed long ago. While much has been written about attriting the Syrian government to death by killing off tanks and armored vehicles faster than new crews can be replaced or perhaps more definitively destroying their armored force in totality, and there is certainly something to this strategy, such a strategy could go on for several more years before all armor is finally destroyed, and this presumes that a nation like Russia doesn't just 1 for 1 replace those losses. On a tactical level those vehicles have to be destroyed as rapidly as possible to prevent either a loss of momentum in opposition offensives or a regaining of momentum by the government when enough armor (and armored crews) can be amassed for an offensive operation. And to that extent, it would be absolutely foolish for the opposition to discontinue it's continual use of ATGMs as a standoff weapon to denude government forces of their armored advantages and to help force collapse of positions so that the oppositions more lightly armed infantry can overwhelm positions.

But strategically, the opposition has little ability to threaten total armored strength of the Syrian military in the short term, having to rely on the stress ball approach of squeezing one area which allows other areas to swell from the lack of pressure there. And this is where the assault on logistics becomes so vital. While it is inconceivable that a group like Jaish al-Fateh can completely stop massive armored convoys from continuing to push forward into Aleppo, Daraa, Hama, or whever the current battle lines may be, by striking these convoys and destroying/capturing supplies intended for the given front it is weakening the level of support that can be provided to that front. Each truck of ammunition that is destroyed is that many fewer bullets fired at opposition forces during their next offensive. When a truck loaded with fuel is blown up the intended target for the fuel is now forced to move less frequently and spend more time in defensive arrangements so familiar to watchers of ATGM videos, where they're exposed far more than while on the move patrolling their battle space as a hard target. Each bus or truck full of troops struck is that many fewer reinforcements headed to the front lines. As an organization that does not pay for (generally speaking) its ATGMs but rather relies on their capture when they overrun bases and supply columns, or in the cases of US vetted TOW supplied groups in having access to a common border where they can receive resupply, the value placed on each ATGM is different than if there was a financial cost attached. Which frees them up use in roles beyond what they were conceived for, particularly in areas where it has ceased to be a tank-rich environment. Non-armored targets come to include a wide host of heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft cannons on technicals, Soviet era multi-barreled rocket launchers, artillery pieces, the aforementioned logistical vehicles, perhaps most ironically other ATGM teams, and then the target that gets the most questions: bulldozers.



Bulldozers use in a combat environment is unbelievably diverse and important. Every modern military has some form of armored bulldozer and earth-moving equipment for front line use in addition to regular civilian grade models painted olive drab or tan. Used by combat engineers under active combat conditions to breach obstacles, clear a path through a minefield (using the massive blade to absorb blasts of smaller mines), help dislodge stuck armored vehicles too heavy to push or pull free, and to rapidly create defensive works in captured positions, the bulldozer is one of the most overlooked but heavily important items of modern warfare. In preparing new positions, earth-moving equipment can be used to rapidly create trenches necessary for infantry to repel assaults, building berms, that serve both as firing parapets for infantry and as natural obstacles to vehicles, and in filling earthenworks like HESCO barriers.

All sides in the Syrian conflict make use of earth moving equipment for the construction of defensive positions. It stands to reason then that the use of ATGMs to strike these vehicles helps to soften the adversaries ability to entrench and prepare/repair defensive positions prior to an assault. When an area is lost and bulldozers are brought in with the attacking force, quickly destroying them helps to buy time so that a counter-attack can be assembled before the enemy has time to strengthen their positions. In this manner destroying earth moving equipment helps to keep losses as temporary and when sufficient force is gathered counter-attacks have the advantage of of, ideally, facing an opponent on the wrong side of the defensive works not having had time to adequately prepare new ones. The rapid destruction of earth moving equipment is therefore highly desirable and perhaps from a strategic point of view as important as destroying enemy armor.
While the possibility of strategic resupply of bulldozers exists if supplies reach a breaking point and Russian assistance is willing, the continued destruction of Syrian military earth moving equipment weakens the ability of the Syrian ground forces to conduct successful operations both defensive and offensive. Similarly, it should be of extreme importance and target prioritization that the Syrian military target and destroy opposition earth moving equipment to prevent them from consolidating gains and entrenching themselves ot the point of making the recapture of lost ground too costly to be worth the effort. Just as the anti-Da3sh coalition has made continual strikes on Da3sh earth moving equipment in northern Syria and all over Iraq, ideally the Russian involvement in Syria would seek to do the same and treat opposition earth moving equipment as much as a weapon of war as the tanks and rocket launchers they've captured from the Syrian government."

Source: http://www.type63.com/2015/10/but-why-bulldozers-impact-of-destroying.html

Militarov wrote:"Rebels seized RPO-A Shmel in Sukayk village."



However...item on a right side is not Shmel, i belive its MRO-A - http://world.guns.ru/grenade/rus/mro-a-e.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHd1kmlt0-A&feature=youtu.be&t=89

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Militarov wrote:"Rebels seized RPO-A Shmel in Sukayk village."



However...item on a right side is not Shmel, i belive its MRO-A - http://world.guns.ru/grenade/rus/mro-a-e.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHd1kmlt0-A&feature=youtu.be&t=89

Ha, nice. I had only photo.

Notice the year of production. 05.

A couple of developments....


Critical Battle Taking Place in East Aleppo as the Cheetah Forces Advances on Kuweires Airport

According to a military source from the Syrian Arab Army’s “Tiger Forces” in southeastern Aleppo, the Syrian Armed Forces at Sheikh Ahmad were able to advance inside the southern neighborhoods of Sheikh Ahmad; however, they still have a long way to go before being able to impose full control over this large town on the fringes of the Kuweries Military Airport.

Meanwhile, northeast of Al-Safira, ISIS attempted to infiltrate into the town of Al-Aziziyah for the second time in 72 hours; however, the Syrian Arab Army soldiers were well-prepare for this attack and repelled the encroaching terrorists after only two hours of fighting.

The next 48 hours in the east Aleppo countryside will be critical for both the Syrian Armed Forces and ISIS, as the former attempts to lift the two year long siege on the Kuweries Military Airport.


http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/critical-battle-taking-place-in-east-aleppo-as-the-cheetah-forces-advances-on-kuweires-airport/

Hezbollah and the Syrian Army Capture Tal Ithriyah: ISIS Controls 1km of Highway in East Hama

On Thursday morning, the Syrian Arab Army’s 66th Brigade received a much needed boost when a contingent from Hezbollah arrived from the town of Khanasser to help drive the ISIS terrorists from the long stretch of hills that are spread across this desolate area in the Hama Governorate’s northeastern countryside.

Hezbollah’s presence proved successful, as they were able to recover the integral hilltop at Tal Ithriya after a series of intense firefights with ISIS; this has allowed for the Syrian Armed Forces to concentrate some of their units to the Sheikh Hilal front, where they confronted another ISIS assault on this town located along the Raqqa-Salamiyah Highway.

Luckily, the Syrian Armed Forces were able to defeat the encroaching ISIS terrorists attempting to push north towards the town of Sheikh Hilal, while also defeating another terrorist assault near the town of Al-Sa’an.

The Khanasser-Ithriyah Highway is still closed due to ISIS’ presence along the northern hills overlooking the main road that is used by the Syrian Arab Army and their allies; if it still remains closed, the Syrian Government will have to rely on airdrops in order to resupply their forces in Aleppo.

According to a source from the Syrian Arab Army inside the provincial capital of the Hama Governorate, the 66th Brigade and Hezbollah have less than 1km of territory left to go before the Khanasser-Ithriya Highway is reopened.


http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/hezbollah-and-the-syrian-army-capture-tal-ithriyah-isis-controls-1km-of-highway-in-east-hama/

Can we expect Russian volunteers going into Syria to help SAA? If money is right there would be plenty of people not only from Russia willing to fight islamists there before they came to their countries.
Damn SAA is like Ukrainian army, except they can't use artillery at all.

Regular wrote:Can we expect Russian volunteers going into Syria to help SAA? If money is right there would be plenty of people not only from Russia willing to fight islamists there before they came to their countries.
Damn SAA is like Ukrainian army, except they can't use artillery at all.

I don't think that's going to be the case. The issue with this war, is that unlike Ukraine, both parties are pure savages and motherfcuking animals. It's not exactly a genetlemen's agreement type of war which you allow 400 POW's to get to the border, pamper them and send them back. Here those 400 guys would have made a nice Featuring ... on LIveleak.

Russian volunteers to happen would also mean, an actual thorough preparation with the actual Russian Armed forces. Which so far, has never happened outside of locals. Locals are shit most of the time, because they can't actually be as ruthless as they should. This civil war is all shades of shit, with locals monitoring SAA and tipping off the Terrorists every day all day. The only way to win here is an extermination war. There's also a lot of technical details that need to be taken into account but mostly, an mixed Russian Iranian unit (1 or 2 battalion(s)) should be tested. Syrians are a mixed bag. Hezbollah is too small. And Iraqi militias absolutely brutal. Which...is exactly how they manage to win.

However the real answer lies in WDC. They need to get to grips with reality. Destroying that region and country, will only haunt their own poodles in the medium Run.

SAA's pool of potential recruits is pretty low - mostly limited to Alawites, Christians, Druzes and upper-middle class Sunnis. There are Alawite villages with no men of fighting age left, they all died. Kurds mind their own business and Arab Sunnis (except the aforementioned upper and middle class Sunnis from around Damascus) won't fight tooth and nail for Assad contrary to what some people think Given the circumstances, deploying the Russian forces would be very beneficial.

Iran admits 31 Iranian soldiers were killed in Syria just this month:
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/over-30-iranian-soldiers-killed-in-northern-syria-this-month/

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:SAA's pool of potential recruits is pretty low - mostly limited to Alawites, Christians, Druzes and upper-middle class Sunnis. There are Alawite villages with no men of fighting age left, they all died. Kurds mind their own business and Arab Sunnis (except the aforementioned upper and middle class Sunnis from around Damascus) won't fight tooth and nail for Assad contrary to what some people think Given the circumstances, deploying the Russian forces would be very beneficial.

Iran admits 31 Iranian soldiers were killed in Syria just this month:
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/over-30-iranian-soldiers-killed-in-northern-syria-this-month/

It is the Iranians who will win/lose this war.

Apart from the locals it is they who have by far the biggest strategic need to win this war and they have the resources to do it. They need ownership of the land bridge between the Gulf/Indian Ocean and the Med for pipelines and other trade plus they don't want to see a Greater Israel arise from the ashes of Syria and then Lebanon.

Video from last years Aleppo prison battle. Good one.



Shows the evacuation of injured civilians and military personnel from the Aleppo central prison and the reception of senior military leaders and headed by Colonel Suhail Al-Hassan commander of the military campaign in the region

There are no subtitles available, so difficult to understand. It would have been good with some translation.

Most of SAA men are with long beards an indication of their enduring battle and likely to keep it as such until the final battle is over.

SAA seems to be not very brave. They flee the moment mujahids attack them. Afghan army was much better and held back mujahids for several years after Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan. Libyan army in 2011 was kicking rebel butts and knocking on Benghazi's door before NATO intervention started. Had it not been for foreign Shia militia, Syria would have fallen in 2011.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:SAA's pool of potential recruits is pretty low - mostly limited to Alawites, Christians, Druzes and upper-middle class Sunnis. There are Alawite villages with no men of fighting age left, they all died. Kurds mind their own business and Arab Sunnis (except the aforementioned upper and middle class Sunnis from around Damascus) won't fight tooth and nail for Assad contrary to what some people think Given the circumstances, deploying the Russian forces would be very beneficial.

Iran admits 31 Iranian soldiers were killed in Syria just this month:
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/over-30-iranian-soldiers-killed-in-northern-syria-this-month/

No upper class/middle class (majority of them) wont fight unless war touches them regardles of their affinity or dislike for their president. In Ukraine scenario also, we saw many guys fleeling DPR and LNR for Russia.

SAA will do good to conserve their fighting core and its better to go slow when the opposition is thick rather than getting heroic and suicidal. I have see some ridiculing the SAA for 'fleeing' once the fight gets harder... First of all we do not know the actual situation but my personal opinion is not to waste energy and sacrifice men on something that is indefensible on a tactical level. Retreat and live to fight another day.

JohninMK wrote:It is the Iranians who will win/lose this war.

Apart from the locals it is they who have by far the biggest strategic need to win this war and they have the resources to do it. They need ownership of the land bridge between the Gulf/Indian Ocean and the Med for pipelines and other trade plus they don't want to see a Greater Israel arise from the ashes of Syria and then Lebanon.

Iranians yes. But its as important for Russia and like I always say, Syria is Russia's strategic - near abroad - backyard and an asset Russia should never let go.

This bloody organized war has indeed made all the steps to fall in favour of Russia which the west have always wanted to prevent. They in the early days used Shah to prevent Soviet Russia from getting a direct access to Gulf and Indian Ocean and what we now see is Iran more so dependent on Russia for mutual benefit and a solid Russian influence forming from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. So Iranian/Iraqi/Russian pipeline project running straight from the Persian Gulf to Mediterranean will restart once Syrian situation is stabilized and under control. This will yet again make the European fools to deal with Russia for oil & gas.

Well... to tip the balance of power Iran would have to deploy at least a division-sized force for Aleppo frontline and 2 other divisions in Idlib and Daraa... at best with a heavy armored component... a few thousand Basij guys aren't going to change much and SAA is losing 1500-2000 dead/month and these casualties can't be sustained forever.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Well... to tip the balance of power Iran would have to deploy at least a division-sized force for Aleppo frontline and 2 other divisions in Idlib and Daraa... at best with a heavy armored component... a few thousand Basij guys aren't going to change much and SAA is losing 1500-2000 dead/month and these casualties can't be sustained forever.

Indeed IRAN is the biggest deception in the entire conflict. It can't be real that Hezbolah
that is not an army ,but a paramilitary group that have no tanks ,no airforce ,no navy ,not advance weapons ,not the budget of a country have 5,000 to 10,000 forces in Syria.. And
that a nation like IRAN ,with the biggest ARmy in the muslin world, around 2.5 million soldiers
with half a million active staff.  Only send 2,000 forces ,that are mostly Iraqui volunteers. half
of them that originally were sent to defend a stupid religious shia building in Syria while people
were being slaughtered in the nation by terrorist.  And This "help" that IRAN give syria comes
only because Syria and IRAN have a "mutual defense pact" that in case one nation attacked the
other will help.. a Pact that Iran have shoved on the rear and have not followed since
the capture of IDlib in Syria was done by Turkey/Saudi Undercover ARmy invasion and IRAN remained silent and did not move a finger.  the least they could do is send at very least 10,000 to 15,000 well armed soldiers with a couple of dozens tanks and couple of dozen of combat jets to help Assad recapture the City.  But nothing of that. Not a single Iranian Tank or Iranian Air force sent to Syria.. IRAN mantra for 4 years have been the need for Syria "to solve its issues with its "opposition" through politics.  And the only reason IRAN send a force ,is to not look like idiots after Russia that have no defense pact with Syria sent its airforce. RUssia alone
for example have a larger military army presence in Syria , for the security of Latakia military base ,larger than the Iranian force helping the Syrian army in the offense.

This is why Syria will need to rethink their foreign policy and know well that Iran is not a
first class ,neither second partner and cannot count on IRAN in case any war start with any of their neighbors. IRAN is only an opportunistic partner that only give some help to not lose
face and influence in Syria after Russia jumped to help.

Syria only real allies in the conflict are Russia and hezbolah but also IRAQ ,that have been
very constructive in their relations with Syria. Egypt could also be a potential allies.. they
told not long ago..that were ready to help Russia in the fight against ISIS with its airforce.

Vann7 wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Well... to tip the balance of power Iran would have to deploy at least a division-sized force for Aleppo frontline and 2 other divisions in Idlib and Daraa... at best with a heavy armored component... a few thousand Basij guys aren't going to change much and SAA is losing 1500-2000 dead/month and these casualties can't be sustained forever.

Indeed IRAN is the biggest deception in the entire conflict. It can't be real that Hezbolah
that is not an army ,but a paramilitary group that have no tanks ,no airforce ,no navy ,not advance weapons ,not the budget of a country have 5,000 to 10,000 forces in Syria.. And
that a nation like IRAN ,with the biggest ARmy in the muslin world, around 2.5 million soldiers
with half a million active staff.  Only send 2,000 forces ,that are mostly Iraqui volunteers. half
of them that originally were sent to defend a stupid religious shia building in Syria while people
were being slaughtered in the nation by terrorist.  And This "help" that IRAN give syria comes
only because Syria and IRAN have a "mutual defense pact" that in case one nation attacked the
other will help.. a Pact that Iran have shoved on the rear and have not followed since
the capture of IDlib in Syria was done by Turkey ARmy invasion and IRAN remained silent and
did not move a finger.  Last they could do is send at very least 10,000 to 15,000 well armed soldiers to help Assad recapture the City.  But nothing of that. Not a single Iranian Tank or Iranian Air force sent to Syria.. They keep with the mantra of the need for Syria "to solve its issues with its "opposition" through politics.  And the only reason IRAN send a force ,is to not look like idiots after Russia that have no defense pact with Syria sent its airforce. RUssia alone
for example have a larger military army presence in Syria , defending Latalia military base ,larger than the Iranian force helping in the offense.

This is why Syria will need to rethink their foreign policy and know well that Iran is not a
first class ,neither second partner and cannot count on IRAN in case any war start with any of their neighbors. IRAN is only an opportunistic partner that only give some help to not lose
influence in Syria after Russia jumped to help.


and will only depend

Oh Jesus, it's that time of day again?

sepheronx wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Well... to tip the balance of power Iran would have to deploy at least a division-sized force for Aleppo frontline and 2 other divisions in Idlib and Daraa... at best with a heavy armored component... a few thousand Basij guys aren't going to change much and SAA is losing 1500-2000 dead/month and these casualties can't be sustained forever.

2000 dead a month? Any links for that? That sounds way too excessive.

Well 2000 for total casulaties (KIA/MIA/WIA)/month is conservative. KIA alone is about 20 000 to much.

Rebel casualtis aren't that much higher than the combined casualties of SAA + NDF. The ratio of casualties is about 1:1.5, 1:2 if we add ISIS. If claims made by SAA like "hey, we are doing fine, we killed 100 terrorists and lost 2 wounded" were true, the war would long since be over.

SAA really isn't a miracle army. It is short on manpower and lacking in modern military equipment. Before the war it was marginally more competent than the Sausi army.