Syrian Civil War: News #3

auslander wrote:It's not France or Germany I'm worried about, it's 'NATO', read US. They just won't stop but I stand by my opinion, EU died last night. Fear will bring back strong border controls and control of border passage all over EU and the associates.

I agree on the EU dead bit....but I don't think they can do anything serious in Syria

can anybody try and ID what the soldiers are trying to assemble at 2:08?

Based on its length I would say Plamya... AGS-30 or AGS-17 30mm grenade launcher... in the footage before that piece they had lots of 30 round 30mm magazine drums which further makes me suspect they were assembling an AGL.

it is not beyond western states to push foreign policy agendas over the dead bodies of their citizens
remember 9/11

par far wrote:With the Paris attacks, do you guys think that NATO will try to intervene in Syria and try to pull their dirty tricks?

Looking at how the script is being unfolded, it may be that the events in Paris would herald France's leaving of the pro-terrorism camp and joining Russia's anti-terror alliance.

On story that is potentially corroborating somewhat this possibility is the departure of Charles de Gaulle towards the Persian Gulf, apparently to take part in the anti-terrorist action in Iraq. This announcement was made before the events in Paris, and we know that a causal relationship always has more significance if the effect precedes its cause!

par far wrote:With the Paris attacks, do you guys think that NATO will try to intervene in Syria and try to pull their dirty tricks?

There is a big chance this to happen....
But Putin has still a trump in his hands.
Russia officially still hasn't indicated the perpetrators for a downed airplane over Egypt.
Putin could outrun a possible Nato ground invasion with sending russian troops in Kurdistan, if he wants flawless victory....

par far wrote:With the Paris attacks, do you guys think that NATO will try to intervene in Syria and try to pull their dirty tricks?

A french politician was interviewed today and he called for military action in syria, not just air strikes.

I doubt the french will do much, despite ollandes tough talk, but america may well use this as a justification for more meddling.

European states have very limited resources for military operations abroad.
They can make such an opp only with US - joint venture under the umbrella of NATO, but Russia still has a upper hand.
If Putin reacts quickly, there is a possibility for removing of this scenario.

France has more experience on intervention and foreign deployment than anyone else on the planet, US included. There is a joke in the army that say we invade a new place every two year (because we do, on average).

The closest unit is a "battalion-size" (soviet assault battalion) mixed mech formation in Lebanon (16 VBCI, 47 VBL, 35 VAB, 4 SATCP, 2 NC1 MISTRAL, aprox 750 men), they lack artillery though.

Then you've got UAE, the 13th DBLE lives there, that's a foreign legion mixed mech formation of roughly the same composition except they have a Caesar battery instead of a Mistral one and they have an air control unit, since in UAE you've got the Airbase 104 home of the 3/30 "Lorraine" squadron (Rafale).

Then you go to Djibouti home of the 5th RIAOM, cav formation, AMX-10 RCR instead of the VBCI, both 155mm artillery and mistrals and helicopter support and you've got Airbase 188 with the 3/11 "Corse" squadron (Mirage 2000-5F and D-R3) and the 88 "Larzac" transport squadron. They also have the ships for moving around...

All those units are full fledged inter-arms, while some lack AA battery or Artillery battery, all come with an assortment of logistical, command, recon and engineers units.

That's what France has around immediately available (those are high readiness units, though the 13th DBLE is in reformation to double it's size and ship it back to France)... without moving anything from France.

Sure that's not be enough but that's a start, to which you can at least a brigade from France under 48h...

France military is strained, spread too thin, nowhere near enough (or what it was), full of capacities gaps (the amount of artillery and AA we structurally lack is nothing of short amazing), full of aging equipment but it's still a well oiled combat force with real strategic planing and capacities.

Sure it's the only one in the entirety of Europe, but it's still kind of there.

Bidoul wrote:France has more experience on intervention and foreign deployment than anyone else on the planet...

Yes, i remember your valuable experience - Dien Bien Phu....heh

Can you stop the provo please? The French can move in quickly in sufficient numbers if the deal is to start à ground op vs IS. The coordination with the Russian, is the weakest link here.

par far wrote:With the Paris attacks, do you guys think that NATO will try to intervene in Syria and try to pull their dirty tricks?

I know they would badly want to but they will not be able to.

There was always possibility of NATO doing something stupid in order to insert itself in Syria and mess with Russia but certainly Russian Armed Forces planned for such possibility and have contingencies in place.
So even though NATO might have different excuse for such BS now after Paris, it by no means changes situation on the ground or their odds of pulling it off with any measure of success.

Basically, nothing changes on the ground.  

And if by some miracle they do go for it (they won't no matter how much they scream about it) Russia and Syria always have plan B. Some call it "Alawistan". Basically, separation of government controlled area (Damascus and coastline, only even remotely valuable pieces of realestate)  and declaration of independence.

Syria as a country would be done for, but over7 million people would be safe from terrorists, Russia would protect and even expand it's interests in the area and NATO & gang would win themselves another 3 decade long bloodletting over another worthless desert hellhole.

condolences to those families who lost someone in Paris attacks, may the rest in peace.


Now, any news from the front where do we stand?

PapaDragon wrote:

par far wrote:With the Paris attacks, do you guys think that NATO will try to intervene in Syria and try to pull their dirty tricks?

I know they would badly want to but they will not be able to.

There was always possibility of NATO doing something stupid in order to insert itself in Syria and mess with Russia but certainly Russian Armed Forces planned for such possibility and have contingencies in place.
So even though NATO might have different excuse for such BS now after Paris, it by no means changes situation on the ground or their odds of pulling it off with any measure of success.

Basically, nothing changes on the ground.  

And if by some miracle they do go for it (they won't no matter how much they scream about it) Russia and Syria always have plan B. Some call it "Alawistan". Basically, separation of government controlled area (Damascus and coastline, only even remotely valuable pieces of realestate)  and declaration of independence.

Syria as a country would be done for, but over7 million people would be safe from terrorists, Russia would protect and even expand it's interests in the area and NATO & gang would win themselves another 3 decade long bloodletting over another worthless desert hellhole.

France, unlike the US, isn't about to go on and invade Syria without UN approval. What is going to happen is that:

1. France is going to jump the gun and litterally save the moderates and ISIS by wrecking up the US and Russian operation in Syria. Not exactly the most French solution.
2. France is going to swallow its pride and talk with Bashar. Better but not French choice either.
3. France is going to talk to Russia and implicate the US in a joint op, this would create a different position regarding Vienna talks. Bashar doesn't step down immediately, the opposition is forced to get rid of its links with JaN and ISIS. Russia guarantees that the Baath regime makes sizeable concessions. This is the most logical step.

Ivan Sidorenko ‏@IvanSidorenko1 Nov 13
#Syria #Damascus training session for new Arab National Guard Recruits

Solncepek wrote:

par far wrote:With the Paris attacks, do you guys think that NATO will try to intervene in Syria and try to pull their dirty tricks?

There is a big chance this to happen....
But Putin has still a trump in his hands.
Russia officially still hasn't indicated the perpetrators for a downed airplane over Egypt.
Putin could outrun a possible Nato ground invasion with sending russian troops in Kurdistan, if he wants flawless victory....

Mmm.. interesting .

Really interesting. Russia can send ground troops either Iranians to the kurdish zones Both doors that are are at the border of turkey and very quickly start a major offensive from there to close the supply lines of the Turkey army and Alqaeda groups who are in idlib. And reports of them already using Mustard Gas.. isn't that amazing how Jihadist in the desert can learn how to make chemical military weapons while being in a warzone . ?  Russia can block ISIS and ALqaeda supply lines indeed. the only risk is a major confrontation with Turkey that will
resist the closing of that supply line. Who will have guessed that after 9/11 WTC NATO powers including USA ,will be openly in an alliance with terrorism as part of their policies. not in a million of years will have believed it ,if asked just a decade earlier.   I was one of the fools who believed the 9/11 story until began to research the "crazy" "conspirancies theories" and to
my astonishment there were thousands of Engineers ,Scientist ,politicians ,police,firefighters backing it and former pentagon generals backing it.  The whole thing was a fraud from top to down and so it is the fight against ISIS in middle east by NATO major powers and its gulf allies.

ABout France joining the Russia side.. i don't think so.. Hollande is guilty of warcrimes in Syria for helping alqaeda and ISIS too.. and he cannot allow Assad to continue in power in fear of the legal consequences he will have to face later. Is not impossible however ,Putin could guarantee immunity to him if he cooperate with Russia.. but it all depends on Hollande common sense and in how Putin play his cards.

In any case Veterans Today is saying Israel Nutanyahu is behind the terrorist attacks.
it was Jewish controlled places the ones the terrorist attacked. means Israel could have easily
organized a false flag with their help. In ARgentina for example the only embassy ever attacked by terrorist was the israel embassy..once controlled by Zionist jews,and the Christina re-launched investigation found the embassy staff evacuated the embassy before the bombings..and that the bomb was INSIDE the embassy not outside..ie.. it was an inside job by Israel to blame IRAN was the only possible conclusion.Why later the investigation was sabotaged with mysterious deaths of people who relaunched and investigation .

Solncepek wrote:

Bidoul wrote:France has more experience on intervention and foreign deployment than anyone else on the planet...

Yes, i remember your valuable experience - Dien Bien Phu....heh

Wow... Do you really want me to remind you of the great military successes of the Russian Army pre-Putin reforms?

Here let's have a read instead.

Even if you don't read french just browse it quick for pictures and the dates...

http://fr.calameo.com/read/000105691c25b00ef8283

Then realize that's just Africa (no Lebanon, no Iraq, no Yugoslavia, no SE Asia), that it's nowhere near complete nor meant to (especially early on) and that it's only 1969 to 2004...

Some updates.

Bidoul wrote:

Solncepek wrote:

Bidoul wrote:France has more experience on intervention and foreign deployment than anyone else on the planet...

Yes, i remember your valuable experience - Dien Bien Phu....heh

Wow... Do you really want me to remind you of the great military successes of the Russian Army pre-Putin reforms?

Here let's have a read instead.

Even if you don't read french just browse it quick for pictures and the dates...

http://fr.calameo.com/read/000105691c25b00ef8283

Then realize that's just Africa (no Lebanon, no Iraq, no Yugoslavia, no SE Asia), that it's nowhere near complete nor meant to (especially early on) and that it's only 1969 to 2004...

Indeed.. France have a big history of invasions for colonialism. But Syria is not africa.
and a moderate middle east power and since france wants to overthrow Assad and defeat the Syrian army will be need at least at least 3x times the power that Syria brings forward for an acceptable outcome. ie.. Syria have 30 x migs-29 (and about 100 very old migs but customized by RUssia to fire more modern missiles ,like Yakhont antiship missiles.) France will need 30x3 =90 Rafale jets to have an acceptable to french people outcome.Israel used hundreds of combat jets against Syria decades ago for example and lost many dozens of them. France only aircraft carrier will not stand a chance against a rain of Russian yakhonts missiles ,that Syria have x 80. Once the Aircraft carrier is sink ,the outrage of French people will do the rest and overtthrow Hollande and stop the war. Modern wars ,like the one France will have to play in Syria are not only about overwhelming enemy with superior forces and numbers. But also to win in an acceptable way without bankrupting the nation economy or annoying your citizens so much that they overthrow you .   So based on economy and political measures,since france wants to overthrow Assad. France alone do not have the capability to deploy alone in Syria and defeat the Syrian army,Airforce and Airdefenses and army with anti armor weapons and more importantly Hold it in control for years and do it in an acceptable way for france society.. Because it will be a vietnam for them. The US Invasion on IRAQ for example ,that IRAQ had a way inferior army than Syria today at that time cost 1 Trillion US dollars.

SO you will see first a revolution in france ,before they can do a military operation like US invasion on IRAQ or even Russia deployment of an airbase. Because losing a couple of dozens of combat planes in Syria and their pilots captured by Syrian army and arrested will no be cool
in the eyes of French people and not nice for Hollande image. and if their only aircraft carrier is sink by the x80 antiship missiles given by Russia to Syria..it will not be very happy incident for hollande and it will end in another french revolution    kicking from Power any pro NATO leader in that nation and the rise of leftist groups.

Africa is just manpads and ak-47 with rpg-7s and old useless manpads and nothing else.
With Syria you have an airforce and a navy and armed with lethal weapons against any navy
or Airforce. Syria have S-300s and upgraded mig-29 with modern avionics that could become
pretty similar in performance and the fights being decided more by pilot skills than hardware.
Such kind of wars for NATO countries,where their hardware is not overwhelming superior
and outcome is decided by tactics more than hardware is a no Go for any NATO power. Because this are offensive unprovoked wars ,against sovereign nations ,is not possible to lead
any ground offensive not by france ,not by USA without seriously provoking major unrest in the millions in their cities demanding to end the war.  

So nato can only directly interfere when they have an overwhelming superiority and have a coalition too.. This is why in 4 years none of NATO was interested in invaded Syria or creating a no fly zone..and ONLY when ISIS began to take half of the territory of Syria and Russia was clear will do nothing is when talks began again of invading Syria.

Turkey is desperate to get NATO invade Syria ,because Erdogan the pig ,see his neck in troubles if Syria defeat isis and Alqaeda and recover all its territories. The legal consequences
that Turkey will have to pay internationally to Syria for support of terrorism will be abysmal.
IF ... if Syria survive , Sooner or later in the future erdogan and Turkey will need to pay reparations for the war in Syria for its crimes. It was the syrian government who recently told
when the war against terrorism ends.. there will be a new war.. an international Legal battle against the nations who sponsored ISIS and Alqaeda ,and helped in the destruction of Syria.


All said.. the reasons for a world war 3 to happen exist. Erdogan in particular have every motive to want to destroy Syria ,because they know they will have to face either legal consequences for their crimes or face revenge with Syria and Russia supplying kurds with weapons to disband Turkey. The only power in the world that can stop a world war 3
is the European Union the majority of it ,that is the major economy in the world and that Israel and Turkey and US depends more than anything. and cannot allow to break relations with them. Europe joining Russia alliance will avoid ww3 any attempt of Israel or Turkey or US to start a world war 3 and end their support of terrorist and more than anything end US proxy war against Russia in the entire world.

The source says that NATO is thinking about seriously expanding it’s military operations in Syria due to Paris shootings: http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/14/natos-turn-to-attack-paris-terrorist-isis/

If so, the Paris shootings came at a very convenient time for the NATO. I actually thought about this yesterday but did not bother to mention it, that the West might want to use the Paris shootings as a cover to attack the Syrian government.

Hopefully Russia has thought about this possibility as well and came up with adequate response beforehand.

Various updates from the past 12 or so hours....no big sweeping gains today but still keeping the momentum going


Moving on areas North of Aleppo...initial (unconfirmed) reports that the Al-Malaah Farms have been captured, from where Nusra has been shelling the northern government held suburbs

Location: http://old.wikimapia.org/#lat=36.2611533&lon=37.1256686&z=14&l=0&m=b&v=1

Syrian Army and Hezbollah Launch Fresh Offensive in Northern Aleppo
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-and-hezbollah-launch-fresh-offensive-in-northern-aleppo/

....

Village of Birnah reported captured - South Aleppo Front



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SAA and Allies are reportedly on the outskirts of Maheen after capturing the last hilltop before the town

Syrian Armed Forces Capture Strategic Hill from ISIS in East Homs
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armed-forces-capture-strategic-hill-from-isis-in-east-homs/


....

More Iraqi Militia arriving in Syria (pics)
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/665625998377906176

Cyberspec wrote:Various updates from the past 12 or so hours....no big sweeping gains today but still keeping the momentum going


Moving on areas North of Aleppo...initial (unconfirmed) reports that the Al-Malaah Farms have been captured, from where Nusra has been shelling the northern government held suburbs

Location: http://old.wikimapia.org/#lat=36.2611533&lon=37.1256686&z=14&l=0&m=b&v=1

Syrian Army and Hezbollah Launch Fresh Offensive in Northern Aleppo
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-and-hezbollah-launch-fresh-offensive-in-northern-aleppo/

....

Village of Birnah reported captured - South Aleppo Front



....

SAA and Allies are reportedly on the outskirts of Maheen after capturing the last hilltop before the town

Syrian Armed Forces Capture Strategic Hill from ISIS in East Homs
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armed-forces-capture-strategic-hill-from-isis-in-east-homs/


....

More Iraqi Militia arriving in Syria (pics)
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/665625998377906176

On that twitter picture, first Iranian KLF rifle I see in Syria.

https://fas.org/irp/world/iran/smallarms.pdf

KoTeMoRe wrote:On that twitter picture, first Iranian KLF rifle I see in Syria.

Is that the Iranian AK?

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Al-Lataminah (Hama province) under attack

Vann7 wrote:.........................................................
In any case Veterans Today is saying Israel Nutanyahu is behind the terrorist attacks...................................

Veterans Today is saying that Israel is always behind everything everywhere so not much of a news there...

Kataib Hezbolah (Iraqi) somewhere in Syria (probably around Aleppo)