China's development as a superpower

We can count India out of the Su57 program and any further arms purchases from Russia. Recently India changed their mind on the Su30SM2/ Super Sukhoi upgrade program they expressed interest in. India is like China. They are only gonna buy from you to find out how it's made and then do it locally and never buy from you again.

I disagree, they want to make their own stuff and the US will not let them do that for the most part and they will find they can only use US weapons for things the US agrees with and approves of, which means they are not really weapons at all.

India is part of BRICS and will remain an important partner for Russia, the US is very unhappy that India is buying S-400s and other things too from Russia.

Besides, India is also in bed with the Western side

Russia is not America or Europe and does not demand its customers only buy from Russia.

And she will be cancelling stuff a lot since the US is wooing India with F/A18s and other US arms purchases.

India buying F-18s would be the best thing for Russia because it would wake India up to how the real world works and what a great deal they had with Russia.

If I were Russia, Algeria, Vietnam and Venezuela would be my main priority.

Every country that is not the US or the west should be their main priority.

Russias customer base is depleting fast.

I disagree, its customer base is doing just fine...

and they aren't rich nations either.

Rich nations are the worst customers... they demand discounts and special privileges or they will go somewhere else, and your profit margin suffers because of that.

In Russia's place, I would have imposed a restriction on the export of Su-57 aircraft on the same principle as the Americans did with the F-15.

The Su-57 export customers get will not be the same as the Su-57 that the Russian AF gets and the profits the companies get can be invested into upgrading new tooling and systems and equipment to make the plane even better.

Where would the Russians be now if China turned its back on them ? They would have to launch nuclear weapons right away..If China turned its back on Russia, other countries would also turn their backs.

China still has lots to learn, their subs are sub standard (sorry for the pun), and their air defence systems are not integrated into a unified air defence network, even their strategic nuclear forces don't have early radar warning over their country to warn of impending nuclear attack...

They show lots of flash hardware at shows and on exercise but how much is actually in service and what real combat experience do they have?

They have a billion people who can develop and create, and that mean in a year they could have literally millions of different drone types for testing and evaluation but how many would be any good?

What is good for the consumer market is useless for war because it is easily jammed or more powerful control signals could take over flight so the enemies suicide drones attack their own positions...

You underestimate China and overestimate Russia.

This conflict has shown how much the west has underestimated Russia... when China actually gets involved in a real conflict (which to be fair is against their nature... much as it was a last resort for Putin too... it is western countries that prefer war to dialog) then we will see how they perform.

All NATOphiles and Russophiles behave as if the Berlin Wall is still standing and there is no one but the West and Russia...
Those times are over...

China has enormous potential... but Germany and Japan got massive investment and didn't become military powerhouses either...

Saudi Arabia bought all the nicest shiniest gear they could afford with their deep deep pockets and they were not a great military power either... industrialisation and money and a huge population base are not enough on their own otherwise India would be feared as well.

The Chinese have discipline, a term that equates to science fiction in Russia and in the West.

They respect others and can be trusted, which is rather more than you can say for the west.

And the fact that you fart about the Chinese also applies to the Russians, for example the first crash of the only flight prototype Il-112, as well as the crash of the first production Su-57.

Perhaps you misunderstand the term TEST.

China is now in a position to buy technology from all over the world so the risk of crashes is dramatically reduced because the testing has already been largely done and any crashes will be kept hidden from the public anyway.

The idea that China only has manpower is becoming increasingly less true as their economy progresses.

Good luck assembling machines with high precision and zero defects using manual assembly.

But if that graph means anything it is that South Korea is the worlds superpower in terms of precision high tech production... have not heard anyone claiming that before.

Then explain to me who had better technical characteristics, tank T-34 or Pzkw VI Tiger ?

You want to compare a start of the war medium tank made in enormous numbers with a half way through the war heavy tank they made less than 7 thousand of?

The Tiger was an engineered to last a lifetime and they didn't, the T-34 was designed for the war it fought and you could tell by the numbers made of each.

This clearly demonstrates they think their own engine is good enough at this point.

Even if it was 10% inferior to the Russian engine it would still be worth making from their perspective because it will be money spent on their own products instead of imported products, and they will be importing food and energy from Russia anyway.

The Russians still do not have izdeliye-30 engines on the Su-57, while China has announced that it has started serial production of WS-15 engines for the J-20B.

WS-15 engines are nothing like Izd-30 engines..., WS-15 engines would be comparable to engines made 40 years ago like the Al-31 engines of the Flanker they are basically copies of.

We really don't know a whole lot about what China has done and what China has bought from foreign companies....

I agree that the Tiger tank was complex and had problems, but the bottom line compared to the T-34 is in the number of tanks produced.

Numbers on their own are not important... the Soviets also built enormous numbers of Polikarpov light fighters and T-26 light tanks which were rather good when they were first built but were totally obsolete by the time they were being used in WWII.

and it is not clear to me that anyone can write that Chinese military equipment is "shit".

Looking good and being expensive does not make it good or effective... Javelin was supposed to make all armour obsolete... what vehicle could possibly operate anywhere on the battlefield where Javelin is being operated... Stingers will clear the skies of helicopters and low flying aircraft and drones.... even if they caused some initial problems tactics and countermeasures are always developed...

You talk about the number of planes China has and the number of ships, well the Soviets and Russia always had the problem of the enemy having more planes and more ships than they did and their solution was a pretty formidable IADS network and high speed anti ship missiles which recently became rather formidable.... but then Chinese weapons and equipment are intended for defence from the colonial west just like Russias weapons and in that role they seem to be doing just fine in terms of Russian weapons. With regard to Chinese weapons and tactics and training... well we haven't seen that yet.

Podlodka77 wrote:
You have almost nothing left to offer China.....
Where would the Russians be now if China turned its back on them ? They would have to launch nuclear weapons right away..If China turned its back on Russia, other countries would also turn their backs.
You underestimate China and overestimate Russia.
All NATOphiles and Russophiles behave as if the Berlin Wall is still standing and there is no one but the West and Russia...
Those times are over...

The Chinese have discipline, a term that equates to science fiction in Russia and in the West.
I am the biggest "fan" of China on this forum and I don't hide it.

Right now, the trade turnover between Russia and China has reached 190 billion dollars, 114 billion of which are exports from Russia to China. So your statements like "Russia has nothing to offer China" are worse than a crime. This is a mistake.
Throughout modern history, Russia has supported China. The dismantling of the colonial system is the merit of the USSR. The primary industrialization of China is the merit of the USSR. China has adopted a huge number of technologies from the USSR. Now Russia is helping China to build a national missile attack warning system. Now Russia is supplying some critical technologies to China (you don't think that China's hypersonic weapons appeared without taking into account the results of large-scale Russian research?). The average Russian citizen still generates ~twice as much GDP (PPP) as the average Chinese (yes, this gap is narrowing, no one denies it, but it is there).

That is why I write that it is not good to overestimate Russia and underestimate China.

Instead, you suggest overestimating China and underestimating Russia. Is not the right approach. Have you tried using an objective approach?

GARRY, the nominal thrust of the WS-15 engine should be 105KN while with afterburner it is in the range of 161 - 180+ KN.

The engine power is estimated based on the size and weight of the aircraft they will be mounted in... but the thrust levels are guesses... otherwise the Chinese would have officially stated the thrust level and they wouldn't need to speculate.

What do you think their guesses are based upon... the superiority of Chinese over Russians?

That is all in the wests head.

* Russia would have stopped the production of project 636.3 submarines a long time ago and would have submarines with AIP propulsion.

AFAIK know the only AIP sub that has been deployed was a Japanese sub that was considered a failure and was replaced by the second vessel in the class which removed the AIP and replaced it and the hydrogen and oxygen tanks with more batteries to improve performance.

AIP is a failure.

The reason why Russia's modernization of its conventional forces is slower than China's is quite simple really. They had three tasks at hand: modernize the nuclear forces, the MIC, and the concentional forces - they only had the resources to do 2.

Efficiency or lack of has nothing to do with it. Its simply prioritization. And besides the USSR left Russia with massive stocks of late cold war gear that Russia has barely even began tapping into. With upgrades they can still soldier on for years.

And its not like China's modernization is granting them a significant lead over everyone else. Take the ZTZ-99A MBT for example: its not any better than the T-90M and when Russia puts the pedal to the metal the latter might even exceed the former in number just 1-2 short years.

South Korea is the world's 2nd largest shipbuilder after China. They were collaborating with Russia in helping Russia set up the Zvezda shipyard. They are one of the few countries in the world right now who have their own tank program and actually build new tanks. They developed their own diesel engine for the tank. They have their own space program. They are one of the world's largest semiconductor and consumer electronics manufacturers. And they are one of the world's largest car manufacturers.

All very true, but should Russia fear South Koreas might as a nation... is SKs navy feared by every country on the planet... if one were to listen to what Pod is saying, Russia is going to disappear and China is going to replace everything and everyone.

The reality is that none of these three countries are colonial bastards that invade and colour revolution countries for fun like the west does... I don't fear SK just like I don't fear China... the US is way more scary and the more Chinas and SK and Russias there are to counter them the better in my opinion.

No way. The Chinese already have the WS-10B3 and WS-10C which are as good as the latest generation AL-31 engines. The WS-15 is expected to be a 5th generation engine. Its performance parameters all match 5th generation. It is just not in service yet.

Where did the performance parameters come from... and if it is not ready yet who knows if it will meet such parameters... it is not like they have an engine B they can use if this one fails... it will go into service and keep getting improved till it is good enough... you know... the way the US is doing the F-35 but without the improvements of course... more effort for hiding problems than solving them.

Soviet Union was good for that, Russia not so much because they were buying things from the west while letting their own industry suffer. Now Russia had to catch up to China to which they used to be ahead of China in, especially in semiconductors.

A lot of electronics and stuff from the Soviet period was made in countries that are no longer Russia... Ukraine and the Baltic States and Belarus all produced electronics in Soviet times and those industries and companies are lost to Russia which meant a reinvestment was needed to get back that capability... in comparison in China, western companies were setting up production in China and building factories to make all sorts of consumer goods for western markets cheaply.

Seawolf is less important the because Virginia class is BY FAR the most produced SSGN submarine in the world - we disagree there.

You talk about the numbers build while ignoring the quality of the missiles used... the Virginia might be an SSGN but its Harpoons and Tomahawks are shit and easily shot down and it carries less missiles than Russian SSGNs do so you can't even claim it is a shit missile but they have them in enormous numbers.

They are not scary unless they can deliver thousands on target at once... which they probably can't.

The Americans are behind in the speed of building the SSGN fleet, but despite that they have the most numerous and newest submarine fleet in the world. They didn't screw it up because they know it's the most important thing.

And they want to fight the whole world... but the money is not going to last... and they will end up like the Soviet Union in 1989 with 50K tanks... WTF use was 50K tanks to Russia in the early 1990s?

Money totally wasted.

Sadly the same kind of hope is rapidly fading for my beloved country and the european west in general. I pray we can reverse course.

When things go tits up the west is going to realise that just letting any idiot run the assylum just does not work and they will change the system so the showiest used car salesman (Trump) or the dirtiest crook ready to murder anyone that gets in their way (Clintons) don't even get considered.

It is not like you don't have your Tusli Gabbards, but they get lost in the noise because the rich own the media and the rich like government to be stupid and preoccupied with things that could get the US destroyed if they are not careful, and would not be a problem if they just left alone.

First of all, the Russians must come to terms with their past, which they had, unfortunately, in the period from 1917 to 1991.

They brought humanity into the space age and went toe to toe with the entire colonial rich and powerful west, and the only reason the system broke down was because the powerful oligarchs were sick of being comparatively poor compared to the rich and powerful in the west.

Being a big guy in the Soviet Union didn't equate to lots of cash you can buy houses on the riviera or other exotic locations with.

The Soviets created the Ukraine, which was an enormous mistake, and didn't deal with nazism after WWII like it should have... and to repay the US for all its CIA bullshit supporting and promoting nazism in the SU and around the world they should have funded and supported unrest in the US and done some real damage... but then there was plenty of unrest in the US anyway.

Anyway this BS is way off topic and I will be doing a bit of trimming and shifting over the next few days... when I start moving things please be careful to put comments where they belong...

The reason why Russia's modernization of its conventional forces is slower than China's is quite simple really. They had three tasks at hand: modernize the nuclear forces, the MIC, and the concentional forces - they only had the resources to do 2.

Efficiency or lack of has nothing to do with it. Its simply prioritization

Would add that Russia grew to where it is today within a hostile world environment where the west was and is actively sabotaging it... from the 1990s where they paid for any useful technology to disappear or they bought up technology and equipment while claiming it was useless and obsolete, to the post Yeltsen period when they were imposing sanctions and restrictions on Russia and Russians for the last 20 odd years, while over the same real time period the rich and powerful west have been investing in production and industry in China to be their own sweatshop of cheap labour and no labour laws or workers rights to speak of to mass produce their crap at the lowest possible price to magnify their profit margins so they can efficiently sell their products anywhere.

When Nike boots are made for 100 dollars a pair in the US then selling them for 300 dollars makes a much smaller profit for the company than if the same boots can be made for 20 dollars a pair in China, and it also means they can sell their boots to poorer countries that couldn't afford to pay 300 dollars a boot but could possibly stretch to 80 dollars a boot. Made in China makes it a sale. Made in the US of A and no deal... especially when made on the same machines in the different factories using the same materials.

The idea that China only has manpower is becoming increasingly less true as their economy progresses.

Good luck assembling machines with high precision and zero defects using manual assembly.

First of all zero production defects is abnormal, because production defects includes faulty components... are your robots able to identify faulty parts or components while they are fitting them? Second... centuries of precision made clocks from the Swiss... have they had robot assembly lines for all that time?

But most importantly the chart shows number of robots per 10,000 workers, which means it is rather unfair comparing South Korea with a population of 52 million to China with rather more people. There are plenty of production situations where a robot does not make any sense at all and for the price of one would actually make a factory less productive rather than more productive.

China is right now re-assuming the role it had under the first half of the Qing dynasty's rule. Which historically speaking was not that long ago, basically up to the Opium wars.
It was the largest economy in the world.
It was closed off to the world and restricted foreign trade and influence. It was the civilization which once had built the Great Wall, and had considered everyone outside the Middle Kingdom as barbarians. With whom it had little interest in dealing with, other than for trade.

And so today its development path is on the same trajectory. It's again the largest economy in the world. It again insulates itself from foreign imports and global influences, giving preference to all its own industries, corporations, and cultural idiosyncrasies. It has built the great firewall of China affording its citizens an entirely separate digital space from everyone else in the world. It barely allows any immigration.
And this cultural, communicative, economic distance is one that China for the most part keeps even from countries it's on the friendliest terms with, such as Russia.

China will not become a new superpower directing events across the world, more so than because of any other reason - due to the fact that it has no appetite to do that. It's far too experienced a country in general to make such a mistake. It knows to stay in its corner, and focus on the prosperity of its people. It does not spread its language, or its religion/ideology, with anything like the effort that the West has put into spreading itself around the entire globe. That stuff is all there for people from other nations who wish to study or adopt it, but that's about it. I hope Russia too has learned its lesson too from the Cold War. But returning to China, it did let its guard down in the 19th century and neglected to keep pace with its defence capabilities and technologies to the leading powers in the world. The result was what the Chinese have since termed 'the century of humiliation' and it's something that they have learned from, rest assured. But they won't be trying to fill the shoes of the US or anything like that. Totally different people and mindset.

I remember a comment some Chinese citizens or political analysts made about Russia in the mid-2010s about its conflict with the West, saying that it was far more 'ambitious' than China. From the Chinese perspective, however sympathetic they may have been, the very fact of Russia taking a pro-active policy against NATO expansion and making military moves of its own in Syria and the Crimea was already 'ambition' -  whereas from the Russian point of view it's simply a necessity. The Chinese on their part would always prefer to simply bunker down in their own country and ignore what was happening around it.

I have a lot of respect for China and its accomplishments, but as I have said many times, I don't fear them like I fear western countries with their colonial ways.

I don't know a huge number of Chinese people but those that I do I like a lot.

Their first generation here in New Zealand were gold miners, while many were businessmen.

The Chinese of my fathers generation were market gardeners and also owned food shops... burgers or fish and chips or chinese meals... they worked hard and made money and their kids were lawyers or doctors...

Things like the book 1984 were used to scare westerners about authoritarian regimes... the suggestion is that this is what communism in Russia or China was like now (when it was written), but really it is basically what the west has become... which is a little funny don't you think.

Hahaha... would be funny that all those British men who wanted to be pilots in the Royal Air Force could be poached by China and indeed other countries... if they passed the selection criteria and only didn't get a job because they are male and white then why not give them a chance to fly in a decent stealth fighter in China... except of course the millions of Chinese men wanting to do the same.

Honestly I am very happy that China has had the chance to develop and grow the way it has... with proper investment most countries the west calls the third world could be doing the same... different people are not that different.... who does not want good local infrastructure and warm affordable house and good jobs that pay well and all you to work but also go on holiday every year and also indulge a hobby or two.

Never going to happen with the colonial west in power... the US is offering the wrong path to diabetes and greed.

The irony of consumerism is you end up with lots of stuff you don't want or need any more, and you know that... but you still have a list of brand new stuff you want... like a spoiled child with lots of toys they wont play with any more because they want the next new toy...