World Economic News and Discussion

Yeah Oregon outside of the Willamette Valley and the Coast is pretty bad. If you think North-east is bad, you should see the desert areas in the South....Malheur county has like 10 people living in it.

I've never taken the 97, I only use the 5 when I drive from Portland to the Bay. Isn't it much slower?

TR1 wrote:Yeah Oregon outside of the Willamette Valley and the Coast is pretty bad. If you think North-east is bad, you should see the desert areas in the South....Malheur county has like 10 people living in it.

I've never taken the 97, I only use the 5 when I drive from Portland to the Bay. Isn't it much slower?

I doubt Harney is much better.... That being said, you haven't seen crap until you've seen the north-west Humboldt County in Nevada. I stayed there for a couple of days at a campground and it was my closest time to death (ok, not really). Literally nobody lives there, look up Denio, Nevada, and you'll see what I mean. (I was at the Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge, I *dare* you to look at the pictures off it! - Desert areas)

5 is quicker to the Portland area, but I was going up to Spokane in north-east WA. 97 cuts off about a hundred miles that way, but it also cuts off a hundred days off of your life from observing the isolation. The nice thing about 97, is that there is no traffic unless there are semis (in which case you are screwed, I had to pass tens and tens if not hundreds of semis). That being said, most of the time we were cruising at 90+ so no complaints there...

higurashihougi wrote:Don't know about similar stuffs in U.S., but one of my friends went to Singapore and found that Samsung dominate the smartphone there. After a day of going here and there he bought a Huawei

Samsung sells a lot of high-end devices here, but for the most part that market in owned by Apple thanks to their marketing and former reputation. Thankfully other companies are rising up here in the US, and I think that a lot of iPhone users are looking at Android despite the iP6's amazing sales here so far. Huawei devices are nice, but you'd never find one here... People here have convinced themselves that Chinese-designed devices will sell their information, despite their iPhones being built there...

higurashihougi wrote:

Mike E wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Don't know about similar stuffs in U.S., but one of my friends went to Singapore and found that Samsung dominate the smartphone there. After a day of going here and there he bought a Huawei

Samsung sells a lot of high-end devices here, but for the most part that market in owned by Apple thanks to their marketing and former reputation. Thankfully other companies are rising up here in the US, and I think that a lot of iPhone users are looking at Android despite the iP6's amazing sales here so far. Huawei devices are nice, but you'd never find one here... People here have convinced themselves that Chinese-designed devices will sell their information, despite their iPhones being built there...

Basically because China is a competitor of U.S. therefore there are people who are attempt to decrease the image of Chinese goods so that the U.S. can win in the competition.

In order to win in such competition, sometimes people created a complete bullshit story to fool the public and that is quite successful because people can be easily drowned in a massive sea of information and disinformation.

To be fair I have witnessed a great number of Chinese bad commodities, quite a large number of them. But thankfully these are mainly the smuggled goods, or goods with dubious origins. But the large number of Chinese low-quality goods is a fact.

I don't care much about "selling information" because I am quite assure that 1) being a normal mediocre indiviual I do not have any valuable information for the China to get and 2) all kinds of goverment in this world has been watching their citizens for long long time.

It is said that after Steve Jobs passed away, the designs of iPhone has lost something very important, something very Steve Jobs which used to make the legend of Apple and iPhone.

Not really (and yes really at the same time), it is just a bunch of idiots who fall for the click-bait articles that are full of lies, that and the "tension" between China and the US.

^ 

More than a fact, they are abundant in many markets, including the auto one. That being said, products made by companies like Huawei and Xiaomi are high-quality and are by no means cheap knock-offs.

True... I seriously doubt that they sell users information...

Steve was over-rated, if anything, Apple's recent drop in product-quality is the result of Jony Ive being in control of their products.....

I wouldn't call that a second depression, it was a small negative "blip" in the long-term positive results. A recession it was, but not a depression... Heck, it was probably (I only know crap about the "first" great depression) due to the first one, in which case it isn't an independent depression anyways...

Yes its interesting but hope it goes beyond study to firm contracts ...atleast with Modi in power I have hopes.

The End Of An Era: Is The US Petrodollar Under Threat?

Brent today is at 51.76 , WTI at 48.86

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Rouble is tanking at 63.11

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR


From the trends I have observed for ever $10 drop in price of Oil ( Brent ) Rouble tanks down by 10-15 Rouble generaly on higher side.

So its easy to guess now of Brent reaches $40 then Rouble would be around 80

Austin wrote:Brent today is at 51.76 , WTI at 48.86

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Rouble is tanking at  63.11

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR


From the trends I have observed for ever $10 drop in price of Oil ( Brent ) Rouble tanks down by 10-15 Rouble generaly on higher side.

So its easy to guess now of Brent reaches $40 then Rouble would be around 80

Brent is around 52 and ruble at 62. I guess now it makes it easier to figure out rubles value.

At least it keeps them safe at lower oil prices. Also means it will now definately help local producers since it will hurt imports.

I wonder why Rial didnt end up this way and instead went the route of being lower valued than NK currency? Ruble was over valued at 34rub/usd. Guess once it free floated, this is its true value.

sepheronx wrote:
I wonder why Rial didnt end up this way and instead went the route of being lower valued than NK currency?  Ruble was over valued at 34rub/usd. Guess once it free floated, this is its true value.

Yeah something doesn't seem right, Im pretty sure Saudi has a higher percentage of its economy that is reliant on oil sale, how come their currency isn't as badly affected like that of the rouble?

sepheronx wrote:I wonder why Rial didnt end up this way and instead went the route of being lower valued than NK currency?  Ruble was over valued at 34rub/usd. Guess once it free floated, this is its true value.

Meaning that the Russian economy would be (nominally) smaller than Canada or Italy and maybe even Spain and SK at this point. That doesn't seem right... That would basically mean that Russians per capita are somehow poorer than Brazilians or Turks at this point. Or is it correct to say that Russia would be like Ukraine or Bulgaria without oil? That the "true" value of the Russian economy is $7000-8000 per person. I'm not a currency expert, that's for sure, but none of that feels right. It can't be the "true" (long-term?) value if you think about what it means for the GDP, both total and per capita, albeit nominal.

Btw, I think the Chinese nominal per capita GDP is bigger than Russia's with the current rates (it's going to hit 8000+ in 2015, if I'm not mistaken), which is also pretty interesting. They've come a looong way. At this rate they are going to over take Brazil and many other "middle income" countries quite soon (5 to 10 years).

AbsoluteZero wrote:

sepheronx wrote:
I wonder why Rial didnt end up this way and instead went the route of being lower valued than NK currency?  Ruble was over valued at 34rub/usd. Guess once it free floated, this is its true value.

Yeah something doesn't seem right, Im pretty sure Saudi has a higher percentage of its economy that is reliant on oil sale, how come their currency isn't as badly affected like that of the rouble?

I think it is because they have their currency tied to something and not free floating. What free floating has done was ease the fall of the oil value, preventing budget issues. Since Russias budget is in Rubles, well it makes sense. But it will destroy the import business/market in Russia that makes billions. It may (or may not, depending on how lazy and incompetent Russians are) mean much more money for domestic makers. But of course, nominal gdp will be effected because its all priced in USD and a drop in currency value automatically drops gdp nominal. A pointless measurement it seems sinse it isnt effecting Russias military production (almost no imports for that anymore).

If Russia really wanted to, they can fix the ruble to assets and stop currency exchange. That will increase value of Ruble to forex but cause other issues like a drop in budget revenue, and hurt domestic manufacturers as imports will rule again and low oil prices will mean less for all.

AbsoluteZero wrote:Yeah something doesn't seem right, Im pretty sure Saudi has a higher percentage of its economy that is reliant on oil sale, how come their currency isn't as badly affected like that of the rouble?

Exactly. I don't remember the exact figure... was it that 20% of the GDP was based on oil and gas, but the value of the economy in dollar terms is now down something like -50%. How can this be the "true" value of the economy in dollars?

Kimppis wrote:

AbsoluteZero wrote:Yeah something doesn't seem right, Im pretty sure Saudi has a higher percentage of its economy that is reliant on oil sale, how come their currency isn't as badly affected like that of the rouble?

Exactly. I don't remember the exact figure... was it that 20% of the GDP was based on oil and gas, but the value of the economy in dollar terms is now something down like -50%. How can this be the "true" value of the economy in dollars?

I dont fully understand it myself but I will try to explain it when I get home, as typing on my phone is very hard. Oil and gas account for 18% of Russias GDP. But is main export.

sepheronx wrote:I think it is because they have their currency tied to something and not free floating. What free floating has done was ease the fall of the oil value, preventing budget issues. Since Russias budget is in Rubles, well it makes sense. But it will destroy the import business/market in Russia that makes billions. It may (or may not, depending on how lazy and incompetent Russians are) mean much more money for domestic makers. But of course, nominal gdp will be effected because its all priced in USD and a drop in currency value automatically drops gdp nominal. A pointless measurement it seems sinse it isnt effecting Russias military production (almost no imports for that anymore).

If Russia really wanted to, they can fix the ruble to assets and stop currency exchange. That will increase value of Ruble to forex but cause other issues like a drop in budget revenue, and hurt domestic manufacturers as imports will rule again and low oil prices will mean less for all.

Makes sense. Just not good for prestige (lol). It just that to many people nominal GDP = the amount of national power. And I guess this crisis is a great example why that is BS. Russia didn't suddenly get 50% weaker. But according to russophobe trolls Putin will now have no "money" left for the military. Collapse is imminent. After all, 50% of the Russian economy just vanished. That what you do when you mess with the west. Or something like that... I've seen that kind of stuff already and probably going to just get worse.

I added the following before reading the next post: (But the difference between Russia's nominal and PPP GDP is absolutely massive atm. By PPP they are the same size as Germany but nominally they are like Spain or South Korea right now. With the new calculations (or something) that were released last year, Russia and China, among other emerging markets, had a massive boost, Russia jumped from 2.8t to 3.5t, IIRC. And China is now bigger than the US, with 12K per capita PPP.)

What do you think will likely happen in the future? Oil price and the economy will start recovering in a few years and with that the ruble? By 2018 we could see around the same (30) value to the dollar?

Kimppis wrote:

sepheronx wrote:I think it is because they have their currency tied to something and not free floating. What free floating has done was ease the fall of the oil value, preventing budget issues. Since Russias budget is in Rubles, well it makes sense. But it will destroy the import business/market in Russia that makes billions. It may (or may not, depending on how lazy and incompetent Russians are) mean much more money for domestic makers. But of course, nominal gdp will be effected because its all priced in USD and a drop in currency value automatically drops gdp nominal. A pointless measurement it seems sinse it isnt effecting Russias military production (almost no imports for that anymore).

If Russia really wanted to, they can fix the ruble to assets and stop currency exchange. That will increase value of Ruble to forex but cause other issues like a drop in budget revenue, and hurt domestic manufacturers as imports will rule again and low oil prices will mean less for all.

Makes sense. Just not good for prestige (lol). It just that to many people nominal GDP = the amount of national power. And I guess this crisis is a great example why that is BS. Russia didn't suddenly get 50% weaker. But according to russophobe trolls Putin will now have no "money" left for the military. Collapse is imminent. After all, 50% of the Russian economy just vanished. That what you do when you mess with the west. Or something like that... I've seen that kind of stuff already and probably going to just get worse.

What do you think will likely happen in the future? Oil price and the economy will start recovering in a few years and with that the ruble? By 2018 we could see around the same (30) value to the dollar?

Dont know, but having a stronger ruble will hurt Russias domestic developers. Nominal gdp is a joke, gdp PPP makes more sense for Russia and is at over $3.5T. Reason why, they makes military products. Technically, Russian aircrafts are even cheaper now and has major potential for further sales. Since the rubles devaluation, UAC sales have been up. And the products for military goods has not technically changed, neither has the budget for it. What the westerners dont get is that Russias devalued currency doesnt mean they lost money, just means that imports now cost much higher. There is a lot more to it, but will take me forever to type it out on phone. Just go to wikipedia and read up on GDP PPP. There is a good quote regarding why they use that measurement.

Prestige is a joke. I rather live in Russia making much less but pay less for basic staples and having no mortgage, than what I have now in Canada. As well, while majority of western countries wealth (maybe excluding Germany), the rest is all about banking. In order to get such growth, we gain deficites like you wont believe. Russias growth was real at least. Add to the fact that Russia produces their own nuclear tech, own tanks, aircrafts, helicopters, guns, ammo, radar and subsystems, automobiles and has the resources to make it all, I would say they are further ahead than half the world, especially western, cause they have hard assets that can carry them till their currency collapses to nothing, while the west has.... currency made of plastic and paper..... i rather have the hard assets than this paper.

Hell! Saudis take no prisoners! This is gonna be carnage, tight your belts!

Hannibal Barca wrote:Hell! Saudis take no prisoners! This is gonna be carnage, tight your belts!

So what are the dam Saudis gonna do?

It seems they will continue until the other major producers (USA, Russia) either bust their oil industry due to high extraction cost (USA) or go bunkrupt altogether (Russia).
Already Cnada and USA production go down but they still push like hell!

The nominal GDP is a worthless figure. How can some forex market evaluate the size of a country's GDP? It can't.
It is just a confidence game. The typical forex player is some nitwit who actually believes that Russia is like Saudi
Arabia and is nothing without its oil. Even Obammy said that Russia produces nothing. And everyone knows that
Obammy can't lie and has infinite knowledge.

Suppose the ruble fell to 1000000 per dollar. Then let's have some rich consortium try to buy Russia using dollars.
The first thing that will happen is that the exchange rate will adjust dramatically. Just like with stocks the nominal
"wealth" of the stockholder is theoretical and not actual. As soon as the stock owner tries to unload his stocks,
their value plummets. You could claim that he should sell his shares in small amounts over a period of time. But that
is not the point. If the stocks had intrinsic value then it should make no difference how they are sold. The intrinsic
worth of the ruble is not set by the forex market.

PPP GDP is the only objective metric. Nominal GDP is subjective and based on the voodoo thinking in the forex market.
Perhaps the fish head market, or the recycled condom market should decide the GDP. Clearly this is nonsense.

Hannibal Barca wrote:It seems they will continue until the other major producers (USA, Russia) either bust their oil industry due to high extraction cost (USA) or go bunkrupt altogether (Russia).
Already Cnada and USA production go down but they still push like hell!

Well, they can try to bankrupt someone whos oil only accounts for part of that 18% of gdp. Lol. Have fun saudi arabia. All at the same time, internal unreast will rear its ugly head as the shias will revolt and so will others when the free handouts dry up. I imagine this will last till fall this year and they will be forced to reduce production.

Apparently Saudi arabia lost asian market, hence they raised the value of oil to asia. Chinas majority of import is Russia now since they increased imports of it.

Edit: I would also like to point out that Canada's oil companies are fine. Only issue is there will be some layoffs and no further fields will be created till the price goes back up, but all the current wells will still be running and still be making money. Also, we are concentrating more on gas production as also another means of wealth. It will hurt Alberta because it is a one trick pony, but will create work in other provinces. There is the idea of building a pipeline from eastern Canada to western Canada and refining oil to petrol for other provinces to help reduce overall costs for average person while raising volumes.

Russia apparently is facing a petrol glut (prices are raised as petrol supplys are lower thus price increase. When there is a demand to lower petrol prices) and Rosneft is being investigated and possibly sent to court in the anti monopoly board for trying to export petrol to highest bidders while there is a major glut within the country. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/899511.shtml

kvs wrote:The nominal GDP is a worthless figure.  How can some forex market evaluate the size of a country's GDP?  It can't.
It is just a confidence game.   The typical forex player is some nitwit who actually believes that Russia is like Saudi
Arabia and is nothing without its oil.   Even Obammy said that Russia produces nothing.   And everyone knows that
Obammy can't lie and has infinite knowledge.

Suppose the ruble fell to 1000000 per dollar.  Then let's have some rich consortium try to buy Russia using dollars.
The first thing that will happen is that the exchange rate will adjust dramatically.   Just like with stocks the nominal
"wealth" of the stockholder is theoretical and not actual.   As soon as the stock owner tries to unload his stocks,
their value plummets.  You could claim that he should sell his shares in small amounts over a period of time.   But that
is not the point.  If the stocks had intrinsic value then it should make no difference how they are sold.   The intrinsic
worth of the ruble is not set by the forex market.  

PPP GDP is the only objective metric.   Nominal GDP is subjective and based on the voodoo thinking in the forex market.
Perhaps the fish head market, or the recycled condom market should decide the GDP.   Clearly this is nonsense.

Exactly.

Iran, has a GDP Nominal of a little over $400B but its GDP PPP is a little over $1T.  Reason is, even though Rial is a currency worthless to USD (25,000 Iran Rials for 1 USD), it is still the currency used within the country, and all products sold within the country.  That said, Iran produces home appliances, electronics like Cell phones, TV's and the like, Automobiles, food and food byproducts (very important), Petrol and Pharmaceuticals.  All of these are based upon Iranian wages and materials used, and a little bit of profit.  All of this has allowed people to purchase goods that are needed or they want at a very reduced price.  It also became cheap for foreign enterprises to build equipment in this country to sell to domestic market.  LG makes phones in Iran for instance, and thus Iranian's have access to foreign products but at a greatly reduced price.  They also make Nissan automobiles as an example.  Not everything is perfect as toilet paper for example costs a lot as it is mostly imported (seems to be a common issue, Iran, Venezuela and the likes all lack toilet paper.  Bet a company that makes it would be rich real quick that is will to export to these countries).  But for the most part, because most to all basic staples are available and made in the country, their money will take them far.  Iran is one of the largest steel consumers in the world because they are always manufacturing anything from toolings, automobiles, heavy equipment and military equipment.

Russia produces all the same, things like TV's, phones, tablets, cars, computers, etc. Yes, a lot of the components are imported but that can also change as Russia produces MRAM (a form of memory), and microprocessors of various types (VLIW, SPARC, MIPS, etc all except CISC). Russia also produces lighting technology like LED, OLED, and can make displays as well. Consumer goods are usually other brands manufactured in the country like fridges and alike. In past, majority of its market was heavily flooded with foreign goods but as those goods dwindle, there will be a demand for them, and domestic brands will take over or more foreign companies will open manufacturing of their brands in the country (like Great Wall making an automotive plant). Russia though manufactures very important goods like heavy machinery in Agriculture and Construction. These two are hugely important for any development of any country and a huge portion of such equipment are imported. Russia on the other hand imports little of it as they produce them themselves (Uralvagonzavod makes construction and agriculture equipment besides T-90 tanks). Companies like Mikron and Elveese produce semiconductors for various countries and hundreds of businesses, including military. Electrical companies like Rosatom and Power Machines are becoming big names as they are exporting like crazy (didn't even know this till recently from an engineer from Victoria, but we are using various power machine products as well. The new companies that are doing well so far are tooling companies and the acquired tooling companies in Crimea will be huge for Russia overall.

What can now be really important for Russia, and if anyone here is interested in such development and should give it a try, are companies that connect buyers to manufacturers. Much like Amazon. It will be these type of companies that will do very well as some of the biggest consumptions of goods in Russia comes from Online sales. Other ones will be DIY stores much like a Home Depot or a Home Hardware store as it is a good way to sell raw products on the domestic market (wood, steel, other metals, glass, etc) and more people will go the DIY route in order to save money.

kvs wrote:The nominal GDP is a worthless figure.  How can some forex market evaluate the size of a country's GDP?  It can't.
It is just a confidence game.   The typical forex player is some nitwit who actually believes that Russia is like Saudi
Arabia and is nothing without its oil.   Even Obammy said that Russia produces nothing.   And everyone knows that
Obammy can't lie and has infinite knowledge.

Suppose the ruble fell to 1000000 per dollar.  Then let's have some rich consortium try to buy Russia using dollars.
The first thing that will happen is that the exchange rate will adjust dramatically.   Just like with stocks the nominal
"wealth" of the stockholder is theoretical and not actual.   As soon as the stock owner tries to unload his stocks,
their value plummets.  You could claim that he should sell his shares in small amounts over a period of time.   But that
is not the point.  If the stocks had intrinsic value then it should make no difference how they are sold.   The intrinsic
worth of the ruble is not set by the forex market.  

PPP GDP is the only objective metric.   Nominal GDP is subjective and based on the voodoo thinking in the forex market.
Perhaps the fish head market, or the recycled condom market should decide the GDP.   Clearly this is nonsense.

in my opinion.. The real Economy of a nation is the combination..

1)Purchasing Power capability with its own currency on its own nation. How many warships and submarines
Russian can make with a balanced budget.
2)How self efficient is its industry in supplying all its needs..
3)their nation debt how easy or hard is for them ,to pay their debts.
4)Modernization of its cities and infrastructure.
5)And last but also important.. People opinions of whether their nation is moving or not in the right direction.

All of them for me are equally important.. and cannot be excluded. IF for example people public opinion is really bad
(like happened to Ukraine) about their country.. this will create unrest.. and for a long time this unrest will disband their nation  .  If a nation is not self efficient and 100% dependent everything on exports..is a very weak economy.. that depends of others to carry them.. ie Saudi arabia.  And without modernization in cities..and good roads ,you don't attract business and investments in your country.