The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

Khepesh wrote:On Friday I posted about the mood music changing as regards statements from Zakharchenko and Pushilin, and that IMO at least all of Novorossiya will be liberated and probably all the left bank, including the non Novorossiya oblasts of Sumy, Chernigov and Poltava, and that Kiev will eventually be included. So, today Pushilin says that all Ukraine will join Russia, but not all at once, and he says about Zaporozhye and Sumy, tho he uses the name Slobozhanshchina as it includes Sumy and part of Poltava oblast, and Kharkov and even Belgorod. So the reality is that it is the name for an area of western Russia, and I think an important nuance to use that name as it joins at least part of "Ukraine" with Russia as one entity. Pushilin also says that the more Kiev delays implementing Minsk, then the option of all Ukraine joining Russia becomes more possible. Whether these statements are simply trolling or whatever else, it is interesting that they are being made. I wonder now long before MSM start to realise what is being said, as it could be used as propaganda to "proove" Russia intends to invade Ukraine. http://pravdanews.info/pushilin-kharkov-i-zaporozhe-prisoedinyatsya-k-rossii.html  

Depends who out there is reading your words I highlighted!

Today a delegation of 40 Vietnamese went from Odessa to Kiev to demand investigation into last weeks incidents. They are also demanding return of $600,000 that was stolen and have reminded that the joint Vietnamese/Chinese community is numerous, and essentially threaten that if the problems are not resolved quickly, then they will take to the streets en masse. Interesting......
http://www.1tv.od.ua/news/15306

Main banner says "President help us" and the small sign is "Prosecutor save us"

JohninMK wrote:
Depends who out there is reading your words I highlighted!

It would be thought that they read everything as that should be their job, but I think they are actually ignorant , lazy stupid people. But then since beginning of 2014 these forums and the blogs etc have been well ahead of any media, and I would say so called professional analysts, such as RUSI, who have shown themselves as amateurs.

Khepesh wrote:

JohninMK wrote:
Depends who out there is reading your words I highlighted!

It would be thought that they read everything as that should be their job, but I think they are actually ignorant , lazy stupid people. But then since beginning of 2014 these forums and the blogs etc have been well ahead of any media, and I would say so called professional analysts, such as RUSI, who have shown themselves as amateurs.

The effort available seems to be spent tracking social media.

Khepesh wrote:Yasinovataya checkpoint yesterday.

For you military experts,those aren't smoke rounds. Looks like regular impacts to me, just there's no wind and the smoke is not rising. I would guess mortar rounds, but I can't hear the incoming sound. 82mm rounds or heavier?

Probably Vasilek, and if it was filmed yesterday early evening, then it was followed by 152mm, but no film of that. Be interesting why the operator was running at the end, but no info.

Ispan wrote:
For you military experts,those aren't smoke rounds. Looks like regular impacts to me, just there's no wind and the smoke is not rising. I would guess mortar rounds, but I can't hear the incoming sound. 82mm rounds or heavier?

Thanks, it was just that the impact at 24 secs didn't seem to leave any damage on the tarmac when viewed at the end of the video so I assumed it was laying a screen practice.

Khepesh wrote:

JohninMK wrote:
Depends who out there is reading your words I highlighted!

It would be thought that they read everything as that should be their job, but I think they are actually ignorant , lazy stupid people. But then since beginning of 2014 these forums and the blogs etc have been well ahead of any media, and I would say so called professional analysts, such as RUSI, who have shown themselves as amateurs.

That's one of the key discoveries of this war. The extent of how media can manipulate and lie, and the other is their general ignorance and lazyness. Journalism is dead.

I was surprised that a friend from the Spanish forum that lives in Sankt Petersburg followed our threads on the war. I asked why, if he spoke Russian and could watch the Russian media. He said that the forum posted the news ahead of channels such as Rossiya and Life News. The media just were picking up the stories from the internet.


Now, for those of us that don't speak Russian, there appeared this translation of Cassad latest article on the losses of Ukranian forces.



A Western analyst think thank eventually recognized the obvious and came to the same conclusions as me and others did, two years ago.



Ukrainian Army losses in ATO (“anti-terrorist operation”) according to the IISS’s Military Balance


There are so many self proclaimed experts and think thanks out there that I bothered to check the source. They do have some prestige.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...ategic_Studies

There's nothing that we haven't said before. It's actually a half-assed job. They just tallied the armor and artillery losses and their crews to estimate Ukrop casualties, and that's whitout counting the infantry losses.

If you don't want to read the entire piece here are the two relevant excerpts


Estimates of personnel losses and the paradox of mobilizations without demobilization

One must mention that during ATO military analysts ironically noted that the first three waves of mobilization were not matched by demobilization, but the UA did not create any new units, even though more than 30,000 men were drafted. That black humor was caused by the impression that mobilizations just replenished losses of killed and wounded. There is a possibility, though, that some of the mobilized solders were sent to semi-regular units of the National Guard, which could explain this paradox.

However, the data from Military Balance show that the black humor of military analysts was not far from the mark. The UA simply did not have the hardware to create new units. Also, even Anton Geraschenko (advisor to the Minister of Internal affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov; member of Rada; gain notoriety with the creation of the site “Mirotvorets” (Peacemaker) containing personal information about various opposition figures and journalists – translator’s note), who oversaw the creation of the National Guard units, said that one should not exaggerate the personnel of the National Guard, which never exceeded 5,000. Because of that, Anton Geraschenko complained about low numbers of “patriots”.

...


To summarize, as far as the most common military hardware, such as APCs, AFVs, and light self-propelled artillery, are concerned, the UA losses are ~60% and cannot be replaced by the Ukrainian military industry. The UA capacity for offensive at this level of losses is doubtful. In addition, one can expect a manifold increase in the official numbers of the UA personnel losses, as the data on lost hardware and mobilization suggest the loss of ~30,000 solders.


My commentary:


Casualties are likely to exceed 45,000 between dead, wounded and missing, in a previous post I said 45.000 killed, that was an errata) as you have to add infantry losses. I factored in that the Ukrops wasted their tanks and armored vehicles in attacks with very little infantry support, because they simply had no trained infantry. So they used armor as battering rams in repeated charges, and infantry casualties would be lower than expected.

Now, after reviewing my notes, I see that the 45,000 figure is just a conservative estimate based on known, confirmed losses. That is, we know for certain Ukraine has lost 10,000 dead, and the proportion of wounded to dead is 3 to 1 at a minimum.

Now I think the total loss would be closer to 90,000 (24,000 dead), as per Novorussian claims in November 2015.


Cassad writes some propaganda nonsense about the Ukranian artillery being destroyed by Russian artillery. There's a kernel of truth to this, but Cassad spouses a lot of nonsense about "North Wind", crediting the success of the Novorussian to the Russian army tourists. The losses suffered by Ukranian artillery have a simpler explanation. Later.

Link to Cassad report

http://thesaker.is/ukrainian-army-lo...itary-balance/

Khepesh wrote:Probably Vasilek, and if it was filmed yesterday early evening, then it was followed by 152mm, but no film of that. Be interesting why the operator was running at the end, but no info.

Thanks, Khepesh. I figured out it was not a big bang and the pattern of hits looked weird, too fast for hand loaded mortars. I have read that mortar bombs cause a characteristic whistling sound, but since the Vasiliok is short of a hybrid between cannon and mortar, the trajectory and speed of the round can be different from typical mortars, so there is no so much incoming sound to alert of the arrival. Did I get it right, or said a lot of nonsense?

Khepesh wrote:Probably Vasilek, and if it was filmed yesterday early evening, then it was followed by 152mm, but no film of that. Be interesting why the operator was running at the end, but no info.

The impacting rounds were 82 mm mortars. What caused our warrior to head for the bunker was an incoming from the orc block post building, you can see the flash of the discharge.

The situation is deteriorating to what it was before Minsk 2 and Debaltsyevo. I don't know what the outcome will be in detail although I have no doubts Novorossiya will prevail. However, the sanctions that will follow will be savage, economy in EU be damned. That may be the straw, when Benz, Rheinmetal (Krupp), Siemens, et al go begging it is possible Merkel and allies will be put out and Bundeswehr may put the American occupiers out at the same time. What are the Americans going to do, attack Germany? They ain't got the stones or the troops. Sooner or later Germany and EU in general will realize this and then it's game over, 70 years of occupation will be over.

Big AGS, but I've never been at the receiving end to say exactly what sound it makes before hitting, fortunately.

If you listen closely you can hear the 82's coming. An AGS is pretty quiet but archs up almost like a mortar round at range. I think it was a bit more than an AGS that made our boy head for the 'bomb proof'.

Actually, the one/two pattern indicates a two 82mm mortar position, also they don't seem to correct after each rack. Or there are two+ 2B9's on single fire.

Counted 16 rounds. Coincidentally 16 rounds is also the amount fired here.

Thanks, Khepesh. I figured out it was not a big bang and the pattern of hits looked weird, too fast for hand loaded mortars. I have read that mortar bombs cause a characteristic whistling sound, but since the Vasiliok is short of a hybrid between cannon and mortar, the trajectory and speed of the round can be different from typical mortars, so there is no so much incoming sound to alert of the arrival. Did I get it right, or said a lot of nonsense?  
[/quote]


Ispan,
You will never hear any sound from incoming round, if it will fall 20-100m around you(distance is aprox. and it depend on projectile caliber). I can tell you that from first hand experience. It is not pleasant, but there is one more thing (for me) unpleasant, it is earth moving after detonation. Everything is shaking, and you have a feeling like you are running on rubber. And it is very very hard for you to run in shelter.

Didn't we have a "fister" on the forum?

I have a question on the detailed procedur of how artillery/mortar units can deploy counter battery and figure out the position of enemy in such a short time unless they have a counter artillery radar?

Confirmation of a successful NAF counter-attack in #Zaitsevo near #Gorlovka

Seems there's a small typo in that post. I'm of the opinion that the '12.7 cm' should be '12.7 mm'.

The fighting around Gorlovka is very intense. There is no sense in bitching about OSCE or anyone else, they all have their agenda. Our men are fighting as hard as they are allowed to and that alone should tell you reams.

Werewolf wrote:Didn't we have a "fister" on the forum?

I have a question on the detailed procedur of how artillery/mortar units can deploy counter battery and figure out the position of enemy in such a short time unless they have a counter artillery radar?

Well. you will, must have, observers on forward concealed position, they have artillery compass. Man who calculate data, know his position and on blind geographical chart mark its position. From forward observers he know distance and azimuth to target and on blind chart mark it. With ruler who is fastened on your position he will calculate targeting data and drop it to other man who calculate targeting data for individual artillery pieces. Forward observes observe horizon for anything what is unusual, dust, smoke, flashes... and all that unusual thing they report to own artillery battery.
It is short and not to detailed procedure because it is hard to explain how artillery battery works in short time or on few words.

Werewolf wrote:Didn't we have a "fister" on the forum?

I have a question on the detailed procedur of how artillery/mortar units can deploy counter battery and figure out the position of enemy in such a short time unless they have a counter artillery radar?

You must not forget, that Orcs are in Novorussia, where Novorussian soldiers are locals and they know their area. Also Novorussian army have excellent recconaisance teams, which monitor all Orcs movings, they also use UAVs to monitor Orcs and they have good spy network behind the lines and local people also give them a lot of informations. So most probably their recce and spy teams give Novorussian artillery exact positions of Orcs even before they start firing, because they are watching them, when they drive to positions and preparing their mortars and guns. I have no doubt, that Novorussian army receive some Credo and Fara radars to control the battlefield and that they receive satellite intelligence from Russia, but I would not dismiss their teams behind Ukrainian lines.

medo wrote:

Werewolf wrote:Didn't we have a "fister" on the forum?

I have a question on the detailed procedur of how artillery/mortar units can deploy counter battery and figure out the position of enemy in such a short time unless they have a counter artillery radar?

You must not forget, that Orcs are in Novorussia, where Novorussian soldiers are locals and they know their area. Also Novorussian army have excellent recconaisance teams, which monitor all Orcs movings, they also use UAVs to monitor Orcs and they have good spy network behind the lines and local people also give them a lot of informations. So most probably their recce and spy teams give Novorussian artillery exact positions of Orcs even before they start firing, because they are watching them, when they drive to positions and preparing their mortars and guns. I have no doubt, that Novorussian army receive some Credo and Fara radars to control the battlefield and that they receive satellite intelligence from Russia, but I would not dismiss their teams behind Ukrainian lines.

Yes, exactly that plus you must have in calculation electronic surveillance teams who will give you triangulation positions of firing unit and observers. Tactic is, who will you first eliminate, observers or firing team. If you eliminate observers, firing unit is blind and can not functioning except on direct fire. So, they are priority to be eliminated. Today, is situation a little complicated because you have cheap and mass deployed UAVs, but for them you will be deploying electronic warfare teams. If you know frequencies for data and control transmissions you will just jam it with brute force(with more power of your transmitter) so UAVs will be unable to work correctly. And, you must know if your enemy have a counter electronic teams. This teams are very hard to spot because they just listen, they do not transmit anything but they represent great danger to you.

Khepesh wrote:On Friday I posted about the mood music changing as regards statements from Zakharchenko and Pushilin, and that IMO at least all of Novorossiya will be liberated and probably all the left bank, including the non Novorossiya oblasts of Sumy, Chernigov and Poltava, and that Kiev will eventually be included. So, today Pushilin says that all Ukraine will join Russia, but not all at once, and he says about Zaporozhye and Sumy, tho he uses the name Slobozhanshchina as it includes Sumy and part of Poltava oblast, and Kharkov and even Belgorod. So the reality is that it is the name for an area of western Russia, and I think an important nuance to use that name as it joins at least part of "Ukraine" with Russia as one entity. Pushilin also says that the more Kiev delays implementing Minsk, then the option of all Ukraine joining Russia becomes more possible. Whether these statements are simply trolling or whatever else, it is interesting that they are being made. I wonder now long before MSM start to realise what is being said, as it could be used as propaganda to "proove" Russia intends to invade Ukraine. http://pravdanews.info/pushilin-kharkov-i-zaporozhe-prisoedinyatsya-k-rossii.html  

It is difficult to say what will future bring, but I doubt those ex-Ukrainian regions will become part of Russian Federation. Most probably Russia will recognize DNR and LNR independence, when Ukraine start a war and end Minsk-2 agreement and DNR and LNR will than go ahead with Novorussia federal state, to which other regions will join. This will most probably than become Novorussia or new Ukraine or something like that, which will join Russia in very close union.

But there is other thing, which is also quite important and it is a fact, that Ukraine is broke. They have no money and new memorandum of debilization of Ukraine, which Offshorenko, prime minister Groisman & co sigh with IMF is a catastrophy for Ukraine even without war. They sold their state for few billion $ of credit, which they will still have to pay back and push their own people over the edge. Fact is, that Offshorenko need money from IMF to start a new war, without it he can not. And even if he receive those 2 billion $ from a new tranche, it will not be enough to pay a large scale and longer lasting war. Ukraine doesn't have large reserves behind. There is a good question regarding fuel. And considering how quickly they are destroying their own agronomy, there is a good question, how long they will be able to feed their troops. Novorussia on the other hand reach self sufficiency regarding food. They are increasing their economy, slowly but steadily. It will not last long, when Novorussia will be in better economical shape than Ukraine and will be more able to support their war efforts.

Now Plotnitsky joins in with Zakharchenko and Pushilin on changing the tune. He says, after talking about how Kiev does not apply Minsk etc etc, and I quote

"So we're not going to wait any longer and we go on the offensive. First on the diplomatic front. Considering the correctness of our legal position, we will go to the supreme international body,  the Security Council of the United Nations, with the requirement that they tell Poroshenko to fulfill his obligations under Minsk."

Plotnitsky also says about gathering a petition to send to UN, as Zakharchenko has already stated that will happen in DNR. Of course all this change in tone from Donbass, which can only be authorized by Putin, can simply be hot air, words to satisfy population. But as we all know that Kiev does not apply Minsk and that the position of LDNR is technically, legally and morally correct, an appeal to UN may apply pressure on Kiev, and also, if nothing happens, the likely outcome, open door for LDNR to launch offensive to liberate occupied territories and remove threat of having enemy forces on doorstep of Lugansk and in case of Donetsk, one foot already in the door. IMO, this is yet more pressure on Kiev to launch their offensive sooner than later. It is as I wrote last week, about Poroshenko needing to keep control over what happens and when, and these statements from Donbass are seriously threatening to take away the initiative on waging war at a time of their choosing from Kiev.  http://www.novoross.info/general/34918-ustav-zhdat-ot-kieva-vypolneniya-minskih-soglasheniy-lnr-perehodit-v-nastuplenie-poka-diplomaticheskoe.html

Edit: Not a prediction, simply an observation, that between old and new calender dates for Kupala could be interesting, or not, I do not know.

I would say only this, the sharks smell the blood and Ukraine is bleeding heavily.

One interesting new.

http://www.novoross.info/donetsk/34890-pervye-kompyutery-donecka-made-in-dnr.html

"Novoross. info »- Today, the infrastructure of the Donetsk People's Republic to a large extent destroyed during the aggression of the Kiev junta. More recently, the idea of ​​the development of modern technologies in the region sounded more like the plans for the distant future. Today, they are becoming a reality thanks to the actions of one of the IT-business, earned capital in Ukraine, but for a long time and actively help the people of Donbass.

We are talking about Evgeni Utkin, the founder of the company "Kvazar-Micro", once a leader in the production of computers in the Ukraine. However, all this in the past. Driven by personal financial interests and greed, the new leaders of Ukraine, who came to power as a result of the Sabbath on the Maidan, tried to take away business Eugene, but failed. The businessman did not agree with this approach, and today new enterprise Utkin begins its life in a free Donbass.

Evgeny Utkin believed in the future of the Donetsk region. He has worked hard and invested heavily in the opening of a new production in the Donetsk republic. To work at the new plant for the assembly of modern computers in Donetsk already started 200 experienced engineers and fitters. This technical elite and pride of Donbass, which was deprived of work because of the war unleashed by Kiev.

Utkin plans to open several more enterprises in the Donbass, in particular, and in Makeyevka Yenakiyevo. All of them will produce affordable and modern computers, which will lay the foundation for the restoration of the former scientific and technical potential of the Donetsk region and allow the young republic to become a leader for the production of computer equipment.

Evgeni Utkin remove his Kvazar-Micro company from Ukraine to DNR and he start producing computers there and now he already employ 200 workers. Most probably he import components and chips from Russia, but anyway, this is a new high tech factory, which Donetsk didn't have before. Considering, that in Donetsk is also Topaz plant, which produce Kolchuga ELINT systems before the war, DNR is actually getting quite good electronic industrial base, which will be very important for Novorussian army as well. Topaz will produce radio stations and communications and Kvazar-Micro will produce computers and together they could produce their own C4I system for their army, well protected against Ukraine and NATO, if they will be based on russian chips.

Renovation of DNR and LNR industry is showing results. I think it will not take very long time, when they will reach 2013 level of industrial production.