Syrian Civil War: News #8

Here are the things I'm going to spill:

1. Hillary will win the election. Trump has no chance. Trump has alienated women and too many minorities.

2. Hillary is a hawk. She WILL bomb SAA. Mark my words.

Now for the question. What will Russia do? Shoot down American planes or not? Please give a straight answer. Yes or no.

Resistance wrote:Here are the things I'm going to spill:

The sanctions hurt both ways, both Turkey and Russia. The appropriate response would have been an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. The appropriate response would have been shooting down a Turkish F-16. What Russia has done has emboldened NATO

1. Hillary will win the election. Trump has no chance. Trump has alienated women and too many minorities.

2. Hillary is a hawk. She WILL bomb SAA. Mark my words.

Now for the question. What will Russia do? Shoot down American planes or not? Please answer. Yes or no.

In Conflicts and wars.. you need clear objectives ,of what you want to achieve.
Conflict and wars is not about honor restoration , but about results. If your intention
is to stop Turkey attacking Russia. Then it looks pretty much Russia achieved that without firing a shot. With the sanctions. The advantage of Russia holding a military retaliation is that Russia
can pick up the target and at any time it wants . So the Expectation that Russia have the right to retaliate and shut down a plane already because Turkey did it ,is a deterrence on its own . By Not retaliating is also allowed Russia to justify deploying a lot of new Air defenses
in Syria including S-400s and without Turkey or NATO ability to protest that.

So Already Russia achieved its objectives of stopping Turkey Airforce from attacking Russia and also with the Russian sanctions on Turkey , they lost  1,200 Tourist resorts. So now you have erdogan sending notes to Putin ,congratulating Russia on his day. ie.. trying to make peace with Russia ,in order that Putin lift the sanctions on Turkey ,where is losing 5 billions dollars a year in jobs directly and indirectly for the tourism industry. Now Russians who used to travel to Turkey
for vacations stay in Russia instead. keeping the money on the nation. So is a win+win for Russia.

1)Turkey Stopped for months hostilities against Russia airforce
2) Russia sanctioned Turkey Tourism and now boosting their own.
3) And still Russia have the right to retaliate TUrkey and pick a target.
4)And it looks like Erdogan is now trying to restore relations with Putin with the reports
of sending a letter to putin congratulating him. So unless is a trap , it will be a signal
for Turkey seeking to end the war and restore relations. which will be very good for Russia.

The fact that kerry is losing the patience and threatening Russia with bombing of Assad
,shows he is frustrated and this only means that Russia is seriously damagin
Russia is about to crush the plans
IF hillary win elections and bomb SAA ,

1) Hillary will be given an ultimatum by Syria and
Russia that will close the airspace to them if do it again. So americans will be warned that if they lose a plane ,it will be consequences of US starting a war with Syria.

2) Syrian army and airforce will have green light of Russia to shut down american planes
if they try again to bomb them.

3)Americans will be forced to retreat ,because now Russia and Syria have given an ultimatum
to leave or face consequences.  

4) in all this Public opinion will be on the side of Russia  and Syria. because Hillary do not have authority to start a war against any nation ,that have not attacked US first.

5)Also under United Nations it will be illegal that Americans start attacking /bombing the sovereign government of Syria. Because it does not have the support of the security counsil of UN which Russia is part.
6)and good luck trying to know where Assad bunker is ,which have to be reinforced by Russia.
it will be next

So if hillary wants to bomb assad will need to first shutdown Russian airforce planes and
declare war on Russia. something that they will not do. Americans cannot do the first shot ,because later will be unable to justify any war with Russia. If hillary start a war against Russia without any support of American people ,without the support of pentagon or military ,she risk a civil war.  So she will not do it. But if she does.

1)Then US Airforce and coalition will no longerwill be wiped
2)moderates bombed to hell.
3) and a major emergency meeting made by NATO and Europe to demand
Hillary to stop its war against Russia and leave Syria. because she started it.
Public Opinion will be on the side of Russia and not America. and this is really important.
So any war between Russia and US , can only happen by proxy ,by third parties otherwise
Hillary/Obama will risk a major civil war in home ,for starting to provoke a fight with Russia.
and this is the whole point of hiring Alqaeda and ISIS to do the dirty job of fighting Russia and Syria. Had Americans started a war with Russia ,after a few planes shot down from both sides.
Europe will have stopped the fight and demanded Americans to retreat from Syria because they started the fight and Russia had authorization from UN to bomb terrorist in Syria. So public opinion and legal rights will. Lets not forget that Obama already retreated one time ,when the chemical weapons incident. and was about to bomb syria ,and banki mon told.. Syria will have the right to defend itself. Obama DID NOT bombed Syria ,simply because there was no way
to achieve their objectives Since Assad have a bunker deep underground and for sure made by Russia. So only civilians will have been killed and will have even destroyed American image more in Syria. and everyone demanding hillary to stop. She will be unable to start a war
without NATO or Europe support. US cannot go isolated again. as they did in IRAQ. because
this time it will have to fight many armies ,and it neither have the support of military to start a war with Russia. that is bombing terrorist in Syria.
so good luck with that.

Vann7 wrote:

Resistance wrote:Here are the things I'm going to spill:

The sanctions hurt both ways, both Turkey and Russia. The appropriate response would have been an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. The appropriate response would have been shooting down a Turkish F-16. What Russia has done has emboldened NATO

1. Hillary will win the election. Trump has no chance. Trump has alienated women and too many minorities.

2. Hillary is a hawk. She WILL bomb SAA. Mark my words.

Now for the question. What will Russia do? Shoot down American planes or not? Please answer. Yes or no.

In Conflicts and wars.. you need clear objectives ,of what you want to achieve.
Conflict and wars is not about honor restoration , but about results. If your intention
is to stop Turkey attacking Russia. Then it looks pretty much Russia achieved that without firing a shot. With the sanctions. The advantage of Russia holding a military retaliation is that Russia
can pick up the target and at any time it wants . So the Expectation that Russia have the right to retaliate and shut down a plane already because Turkey did it ,is a deterrence on its own . By Not retaliating is also allowed Russia to justify deploying a lot of new Air defenses
in Syria including S-400s and without Turkey or NATO ability to protest that.

So Already Russia achieved its objectives of stopping Turkey Airforce from attacking Russia and also with the Russian sanctions on Turkey , they lost  1,200 Tourist resorts. So now you have erdogan sending notes to Putin ,congratulating Russia on his day. ie.. trying to make peace with Russia ,in order that Putin lift the sanctions on Turkey ,where is losing 5 billions dollars a year in jobs directly and indirectly for the tourism industry. Now Russians who used to travel to Turkey
for vacations stay in Russia instead. keeping the money on the nation. So is a win+win for Russia.

1)Turkey Stopped for months hostilities against Russia airforce
2) Russia sanctioned Turkey Tourism and now boosting their own.
3) And still Russia have the right to retaliate TUrkey and pick a target.
4)And it looks like Erdogan is now trying to restore relations with Putin.

IF hillary win elections and bomb SAA ,

1) Hillary will be given an ultimatum by Syria and
Russia that will close the airspace to them if do it again. So americans will be warned that if they lose a plane ,it will be consequences of US starting a war with Syria.

2) Syrian army and airforce will have green light of Russia to shut down american planes
if they try again to bomb them.

3)Americans will be forced to retreat ,because now Russia and Syria have given an ultimatum
to leave or face consequences.  

4) in all this Public opinion will be on the side of Russia  and Syria. because Hillary do not have authority to start a war against any nation ,that have not attacked US first.

5)Also under United Nations it will be illegal that Americans start attacking /bombing the sovereign government of Syria. Because it does not have the support of the security counsil of UN which Russia is part.

So if hillary wants to bomb assad will need to first shutdown Russian airforce planes and
declare war on Russia. something that they will not do. Americans cannot do the first shot ,because later will be unable to justify any war with Russia. If hillary start a war against Russia without any support of American people ,without the support of pentagon or military ,she risk a civil war.  So she will not do it. But if she does.

1)Then US Airforce will be wiped
2)moderates bombed to hell.
3) and a major emergency meeting made by NATO and Europe to demand
Hillary to stop its war against Russia and leave Syria. because she started it.
Public Opinion will be on the side of Russia and not America. and this is really important.
So any war between Russia and US , can only happen by proxy ,by third parties otherwise
Hillary will risk a major civil war in home ,for starting to provoke a fight with Russia.

Action speaks louder than words. So far, Russia has done nothing in Syria to help the Syrian government, which is losing ground on a daily basis. All this talk of SAA liberated thousands of places, thousands of square kilometers, all that is BS. Hopefully you are right. We shall see what Russia does when Hillary bombs SAA.

Resistance wrote:
Action speaks louder than words. So far, Russia has done nothing in Syria to help the Syrian government, which is losing ground on a daily basis. All this talk of SAA liberated thousands of places, thousands of square kilometers, all that is BS. Hopefully you are right. We shall see what Russia does when Hillary bombs SAA.

Russia liberated palmyra ,took a lot of territory in latakia and a lot in aleppo and now close
to Raqa. IS not a race for victory . remember that when ISIS or Alqaeda defeated Turkey can invade. So Russia strategy of exhausting the enemy a war of attrition , like Vietnam was ,is the best one. The more time pass with Russia more or less holding positions ,the more Americans will be exposed in their illegal  war in Syria. and the bigger the destruction of American world image
and the less the support of Europe.  So Russia semi-freezing the conflict is the right thing to do.
while at the same time locking the rebels in zones without no supply routes. The burden of the war will be for US and Turkey..because they will need to finance a huge army locked. while Russia just have there a 12 of planes.

So Russia economic warfare on Turkey and Saudi Arabia by freezing the war ,and dividing terrorist ,luring them to fight each other (with the reconzilation process) is the most practical
way to solve things and force the enemies of Syria to give up. the only dissadvantage is civilian casualties. but if Turkey invades and Russia provokes a major war ,there will be civilian casualties anyway. Just that if Russia send a full army to Syria ,the economic burden will be
not in Russia favor. many reports already are saying Saudis are bankrupt. and Kerry losing patience in Syria can only mean ,they are becoming to feel the pressure and feel scared of losing the war already with so many rebels groups accepting the peace process and refusing to
be the ones bombed. .     By frozing the conflict for a very long time , they will lose the interest in the war to continue,specially if they are encircled and have no water or electricity and cannot move outside the city because Russia control the air space. and without fuel ,they cannot continue fighting , they cannot fight on foot from one city to another. it will contain them to fight only in their city. it will literary halt any possibility to continue advancing ,in any encircled zone.

So effectively all Russia needs to do is to hold positions ,the most important ones , and little by little bleed the terrorist , 10 killed here, 20 there. and force them out of their bunkers to fight in open.  encircle the terrorist so they cannot freely move and thats it. lets them become tired of the war,and let Turkey and US become bankrupt financing rebels in Syria. then keep a door open for americans to retreat. already most US military is annoyed by their government support of Alqaeda. So Americans risk also a major rebellion in their military too ,the more time US continues supporting terrorist.

Now if the rumors of Iran preparing to send 150,000 big army to Syria ,and hezbolah another 30,000 ,for a full shock war , it could get the much more faster the liberation of Syria and without Russia sending any ground troops. only airforce. Americans will be unable to lock
Russia economically in Syria ,which is a major goal .because its force will be very small and most of the fight will be done by IRAN and hezbolah and Syrian army.

Vann7 wrote:

Resistance wrote:
Action speaks louder than words. So far, Russia has done nothing in Syria to help the Syrian government, which is losing ground on a daily basis. All this talk of SAA liberated thousands of places, thousands of square kilometers, all that is BS. Hopefully you are right. We shall see what Russia does when Hillary bombs SAA.

Russia liberated palmyra ,took a lot of territory in latakia and a lot in aleppo and now close
to Raqa. IS not a race for victory . remember that when ISIS or Alqaeda defeated Turkey can invade. So Russia strategy of exhausting the enemy a war of attrition , like Vietnam was ,is the best one. The more time pass with Russia more or less holding positions ,the more Americans will be exposed in their illegal  war in Syria. and the bigger the destruction of American world image
and the less the support of Europe.  So Russia semi-freezing the conflict is the right thing to do.
while at the same time locking the rebels in zones without no supply routes. The burden of the war will be for US and Turkey..because they will need to finance a huge army locked. while Russia just have there a 12 of planes.

So Russia economic warfare on Turkey and Saudi Arabia by freezing the war ,and dividing terrorist ,luring them to fight each other (with the reconzilation process) is the most practical
way to solve things and force the enemies of Syria to give up. the only dissadvantage is civilian casualties. but if Turkey invades and Russia provokes a major war ,there will be civilian casualties anyway. Just that if Russia send a full army to Syria ,the economic burden will be
not in Russia favor. many reports already are saying Saudis are bankrupt. and Kerry losing patience in Syria can only mean ,they are becoming to feel the pressure and feel scared of losing the war already with so many rebels groups accepting the peace process and refusing to
be the ones bombed. .     By frozing the conflict for a very long time , they will lose the interest in the war to continue,specially if they are encircled and have no water or electricity and cannot move outside the city because Russia control the air space. and without fuel ,they cannot continue fighting , they cannot fight on foot from one city to another. it will contain them to fight only in their city. it will literary halt any possibility to continue advancing ,in any encircled zone.

So effectively all Russia needs to do is to hold positions ,the most important ones , and little by little bleed the terrorist , 10 killed here, 20 there. and force them out of their bunkers to fight in open.  encircle the terrorist so they cannot freely move and thats it. lets them become tired of the war,and let Turkey and US become bankrupt financing rebels in Syria. then keep a door open for americans to retreat. already most US military is annoyed by their government support of Alqaeda. So Americans risk also a major rebellion in their military too ,the more time US continues supporting terrorist.

Not enough. Palmyra is a desert city. Not much use. Latakia they cannot close border because of Russia's ceasefire so no air support. And what else has SAA and co gained since Russia intervened? Hardly anything. Maybe a few small towns like Salma and Rabia. But don't forget, SAA and co lost the big town of Morek. And because of Russia's ceasefire so no air support, Hader will be lost. Aleppo is about to be under siege once jihadists reach the highway. Damascus will fall when Aleppo falls. Syria will fall when Damascus falls. So much for Putin's mission accomplished.

After Syria, the next battle will be in Russia. When Russian planes target buildings where insurgents are holed up, and the western MSM is filled with stories of Putin bombing innocent civilians, then Putin will know, he is played by America for the last time, when his own life is on the line.

I'm a direct descendant Sun Tzu. What Americans are doing is classic Sun Tzu. Sun Tzu is the greatest strategist the world has ever seen. Unless Putin changes his policy of friendship, Russia will not survive under such a brutal inhumane strategy.

Couple of maps from the last couple of days



Bit of a difference between this one and the one in the previous post



EDIT

Old map posted, so deleted

Vann7 wrote:Now if the rumors of Iran preparing to send 150,000 big army to Syria ,and hezbolah another 30,000 ,for a full shock war , it could get the much more faster the liberation of Syria and without Russia sending any ground troops. only airforce.  Americans will be unable to lock
Russia economically in Syria ,which is a major goal .because its force will be very small and most of the fight will be done by IRAN and hezbolah and Syrian army.

I doubt that regime has the resolve or resources to add anything larger than 1-2 mechanized brigades in sustainable, year-long operations. And so far they haven't done even that. Their Economy is weak and the regime is unwilling to deploy anything past militias for some reason. They have been unwilling to make a difference all these years.

JohninMK wrote:

^^ that's outdated. See one page back in this thread.

Vann7 wrote:

Thanks for the correction. Deleted from my post.

KiloGolf wrote:

Vann7 wrote:Now if the rumors of Iran preparing to send 150,000 big army to Syria ,and hezbolah another 30,000 ,for a full shock war , it could get the much more faster the liberation of Syria and without Russia sending any ground troops. only airforce.  Americans will be unable to lock
Russia economically in Syria ,which is a major goal .because its force will be very small and most of the fight will be done by IRAN and hezbolah and Syrian army.

I doubt that regime has the resolve or resources to add anything larger than 1-2 mechanized brigades in sustainable, year-long operations. And so far they haven't done even that. Their Economy is weak and the regime is unwilling to deploy anything past militias for some reason. They have been unwilling to make a difference all these years.

JohninMK wrote:

^^ that's outdated. See one page back in this thread.

Vann7 wrote:

This statement is inaccurate, Iran has done a lot for Syria, they lost high ranking Generals, Special Forces Soldiers, Regular Soldiers and they supplied a crap load of oil to Syria for free, supplied a lot of military aid and equipment, One of Iran biggest weakness is their Air Force, if Iran's Air Force was more modern and stronger, I think it would play a more prominent role.

JohninMK wrote:Couple of maps from the last couple of days


Bit of a difference between this one and the one in the previous post

because it's old...

South #Aleppo #حلب situation
Rebels/Terrorists gained control of #Khalsah #Zitan #Birnah

Jaish Al-Fateh seized 12 locations in 6 weeks in S. #Aleppo (~80 km²): Idlib strategy at work. #JaF wrote:

+Al Eis

calm wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Couple of maps from the last couple of days


Bit of a difference between this one and the one in the previous post

because it's old...

South #Aleppo #حلب situation
Rebels/Terrorists gained control of #Khalsah #Zitan #Birnah

+Al Eis

I really wish the Russian Air Force would pound the crap out Aleppo and areas around it, while the ground Forces do thier thing. NATO Speical Forces are in Northern Syria.

Moderate rebels controlled Idlib...  

Feminists in "rebel" controlled Idlib discussing women oppression in the West

calm wrote:

South #Aleppo #حلب situation
Rebels/Terrorists gained control of #Khalsah #Zitan #Birnah

Iran & co. better get this mess under control

A new video shows ,Terrorist retreating from a battle in Sunday in Southern Aleppo




How many escaped. So sad they did not had mobile artillery. They could have wiped all of them.

SAA was pushed back in Raqqa province, they lost Sfaiyeh oil field.
Took them one week to advance there from Zakia, now within a few hours they got trashed and fled to Zakia

No idea what is happening with Erdogan lately , either is playing a game or he is indeed
tired of the war. But apparently according to VeteranToday.com  Erdogan is in talks
with Assad ,to solve their differences ,for the first time in the conflict. He wants Syria
to help Erdogan to not allow the kurds close the border , so they dont create an independent
state after uniting all Kurdish zones. in Change Erdogan will stop supporting any opposition ,
and will help Syria to recover all its territories.

The trick however is that ERdogan wants permission  for Turkey army into northern Syria to block
Kurds from taking it.  So if all those Rumors are correct. Then we have a situation ,a real mess now .. Where Obama wants to destroy Syria ,help ISIS and ALqaeda ,but also Kurds to get their piece of cake. That is redraw the lines so ISIS,ALqaeda and Kurds gets new autonomy and territory at the expense of Syria,Turkey and IRAQ. Eventually Kurds could be used to fight Turkey
and take all of it. and Where Erdogan will now be fighting Alqaeda, ISIS and Kurds and seeking to form an alliance with Syria ,Russia ,IRAN and IRAQ. So Turkey does not lose territory ,neither Syria. or IRAQ. Is like the common enemy now to defeat will be US and Kurds but also Alqaeda and ISIS and moderates.

So according to this report Erdogan is in negotiations with Assad to stop the war.

Relations between Ankara and Damascus have improved in recent secret talks, as both sides are showing willingness for dialogue, Turkish mediator Ismail Hakki Pekin told Sputnik Turkey.

old photo of better times ..



It could be a trap.. but that apparently is what is happening behind the scenes.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/06/20/they-blinked-turks-running-to-assad-clearly-afraid-of-russia/


If any of that is true , then it will be really an unexpected turn on events and even a good move.
Is the only way i can see Erdogan holding power in Turkey by restoring relations with Russia and Syria and IRAN ,and not allowing to become totally isolated from the world. That way Americans cannot blackmail Turkey with Kurds ,since Syria ,Russia and IRAN will be controlling them . Is any of that is true. It will be a real blow to Americans ,because they will lose its NATO
Allies to Russia and Syria and IRAN , they will dominate the middle east and no longer NATO Will be able to enter in black Sea. and it will be on the interest of Russia to restore relations with Turkey. even if he was supporting terrorist. as long he promise to not go there again . it could help Russia for the first time with the terrorism in chechenia. and then Russia will have a card to play against the missile shield in Romania , Because any future transport of missiles will be blocked.

ISIS has recaptured the Thawrah Oil Fields. Damn...we were only 13km away from Tabaqa Airport before withdrawing

SAA from 13 to 50km from Tabqa air base...

Oh those narrow corridors...  

calm wrote:

ISIS has recaptured the Thawrah Oil Fields. Damn...we were only 13km away from Tabaqa Airport before withdrawing

SAA from 13 to 50km from Tabqa air base...

Oh those narrow corridors...  

SAA is stuck to 490 BC Persian Army tactics
IS pulled a Marathon that set SAA back one week.

Can someone please explain to me what is going on?

Russia Loses Patience Over Syria as Situation Deteriorates – General Staff

[b]Gerasimov said that Russia has been sending coordinates of targets of the Islamic State (IS) and the Nusra Front to the United States for three months while the United States cannot still determine which armed groups belong to terrorists and which – to the Syrian opposition

[b]

all this is starting to go on my nerves, i'm gonna take a break...

KiloGolf wrote:

calm wrote:

South #Aleppo #حلب situation
Rebels/Terrorists gained control of #Khalsah #Zitan #Birnah

Iran & co. better get this mess under control

the situation in Southern Aleppo is dire, at this rate Aleppo itself will be under threat.

And what looked promising in eastern homs towards Taqbah has now had a set back. And Deir ez Zoir isnt great either. I suspect ISIS will try again to cut the road at Khanasir, and also attack Northern Palmyra, and possibly attack Al Dumayr, in order to put strain on the SAA in the hope they will have to re-route troops. What really needs to happen if any real progress is to happen is Iran needs to supply more troops in, about 3-5,000 IRGC for assaulting positions and about 12-15,000 regular troops to bolster current positions and guard new areas captured. In til this happens forget making any real gains or if any gains made will be shortly re-captured due to manning levels. I also think Iran could ship some armour, artillery, and aircraft especially as they will now look to replace these items with new systems. The thing is even though Iran's aircraft is getting old and a bit outdated, the war in Syria doesnt need sophisticated aircraft just aircraft capable of ground attack after all the Syrian airforce has been able to wreak havoc still using Mig-23, Mig-21, and Su-22

From a couple of days ago, suicide truck comes into vision at 0.38



EDIT

Another tweet says that this is where the Russian soldier died this week. The tank was destroyed and there were many casualties not shown in the video.

JohninMK wrote:From a couple of days ago, suicide truck comes into vision at 0.38



EDIT

Another tweet says that this is where the Russian soldier died this week. The tank was destroyed and there were many casualties not shown in the video.

These SAA guys have no idea what they're doing, no coordination, no situational awareness whatsoever. Especially that lone T-55 which looks to be immobile, crew running away at 0.22 (not sure). The VBIED is visible from 0.05, the tank just missed and caused a lot of dust cloud. 0.15 a Russian soldier, probably the one announced dead, RIP, he never run away and kept firing till the end (unlike the fools around him). SAA has probably not many MBTs left to fight this war, the sprinkle a few heaps of junk here and there and that's it.

KiloGolf wrote:

JohninMK wrote:From a couple of days ago, suicide truck comes into vision at 0.38



EDIT

Another tweet says that this is where the Russian soldier died this week. The tank was destroyed and there were many casualties not shown in the video.

These SAA guys have no idea what they're doing, no coordination, no situational awareness whatsoever. Especially that lone T-55 which looks to be immobile, crew running away at 0.22 (not sure). The VBIED is visible from 0.05, the tank just missed and caused a lot of dust cloud. 0.15 a Russian soldier, probably the one announced dead, RIP, he never run away and kept firing till the end (unlike the fools around him). SAA has probably not many MBTs left to fight this war, the sprinkle a few heaps of junk here and there and that's it.

They are not properly armed is that simple.
A simple Bmp-2 with a 30mm gun will have stopped the suicide bomber.
Russia is losing soldiers for not properly arming the Syrian army. The Russian soldier
was behind a civilian pickup truck, so again not the correct military hardware for a war.

The Russian who died when called fired on himself , when was surrounded could have been saved if there was helicopters avaialable . Meanwhile MR Putin goes and pay pensions to 30,000 people that no longer live in Russia ,but could not provide a simple protection to its soldiers. Russia have over 12,000 BMPs , and SYria only about 100. So no idea why they
not properly arming the SYrian army with the correct military hardware to protect its soldiers.
also a t-72 or T-80 tank with an auto targeting ,will have wiped that car ,and will have survived the explosion. and Russia have more than 10,000 of them.

So the poor hardware that Russia provides the Syrian army cost them a lot of lives.