Kriva wrote:
SAA gaining too much ground can trigger response from TurkISIStan&Sand Kingdoms or USA. (Russia can do fack all about that and would loose that nothing they now have)
SAA gaining too much ground can trigger response from Kurds because they want to establish the country. (Assad would be finished if Kurds will engage SAA- they are willing to fight and die for their cause)
At least that's how I see it.
And thats 100% correct. People forget that ISIS+ ALqaeda + "Moderates" FSA+ Turkey + Saudi Arabia + Israel and Kurds are on the American side. albeit Russia have some influence
on kurds ,and Kurds in Syria ,its relations with Syrian army are not beyond repair ,since they cooperate at times.
People's tunnel vision seem to think that the war will end once RAQQA liberated ,or northern
Syria but thats not the case. Because Turkey can invade too. then Syria will need to fight and even more difficult war. against ISIS + ALqaeda + a direct war with Turkey army. and it will
provoke Russia to declare war against a NATO player ,which Americans can provide weapons to fight by proxy Russia. This will be an ideal scenario for Americans. That Turkey fights Russia ,and americans arms Turkey to fight Russia.
So Russia needs to fight an attrition war instead. and persuade Syria to stay away of Turkey border. and create such conditions for the rebels terrorist occupied zones ,that life will be impossible. Just look at central Aleppo , is almost totally conquered but have just a 5km wide
entry to the terrorist center. So that United Nations cannot blame Russia for any civilian starvation in Aleppo since there is one gate open for food to enter.
But officially already
Aleppo is a failed city for the terrorist that needs to be maintained . Then Raqa is bombed with frequency so life cannot go there as business as normal. then when new shipment of weapons comes from Turkey ,Russia bomb them. Russia also bombed all the oil fields terrorist control ,so terrorist cannot finance itself. So Russia strategy is economic and political war against US and its allies. creating failed zones ,in the places NATO sponsored terrorist controls. and freeze the conflict ,while at the same time promoting cease of fires and reconcilation.So while Russia promotes reconcilation ,Americans promote war. allowing Russia to be in a much better world public opinion ,in case Russia is forced to defend Syria against NATO invasion. ,So that the more time pass and more evidence shows ,Americans expose themselves as aiding ISIS indirectly by supporting Turkey and supporting directly Alqaeda. So the strategy Russia is using is not only on the military field ,but also in Politics ,and with Public Opinion and with World media. Still most of the world is unaware of what really happens in Syria.. very few people look their news on Internet. Eventually Russia strategy seeks to create a major international pressure on Americans to stop supporting terrorism. If Russia is forced to start a major war
in Syria ,it cannot be against the middle players,like Turkey ,Saudi Arabia,Jordan or Israel ,but Americans instead. This is because Public Opinion in United States will never tolerate their government to start a war against Russia ,in support of Alqaeda and ISIS. The risk Obama face
is a major civil war at the first american plane/warship shutdown by Russia in self defense.
This is Russia goal to end the war. Through Public Opinion and through international rights of
Syria territorial integrity and through a war of athrition. yes the terrorist wants to die. But none of them want to be poors when alive. They will actually get tired of the war ,when no longer Turkey can continue providing food and weapons to them. and most of them will surrender.
Another good reason to delay/freeze the war is that it will destroy Turkey image world wide and destroy its economy. So money Turkey waste in Syria is money Turkey cannot use to buy a new plane or warship. that later could be used against Russia ,in a major war. And holding the conflict have another bonus. That force terrorist to fight outside their bunkers in the open and
and kill many of them.
So under perfect ideal conditions , the ideal war for Russia in Syria will be to hold very easily and cheaply all the zones Syrian army controls with just a dozen of planes and with very few ,to none Syrian or civilian casualties. and let the Turkey economy sink and the American image destroyed ,and terrorist world wide to be grind in Syria and all killed there and not in Russia. Better to fight Chechens in Syria than in Russian cities. Unfortunately Russia strategy will never be perfect because civilians will die on hands of terrorist until they defeated. but if Turkey and Americans invade and Russia economy force Russia to leave ,it will be worse. and even more civilians killed ,as it was in US invasion of IRAQ.
Lets neither forget Russia have another war in Ukraine , and Kaliningrad face major danger too of being invaded by ISIS ,courtesy of Americans. So i think is clear Russia will not like to start
a full scale war too early in Syria vs NATO ,and be caught in many other fronts at the same time. Russia could have avoided a lot of problems ,if they just properly armed and trainned
the Syrian army in the first 5 years of the war. or even earlier. Its major mistake was to wait 5 years to help ,when Syria already lost 75% of its territory. none of this problems will have happened if Russia properly armed Syrian army with decent tanks. before the Arab spring began. it had to be obvious for anyone ,that Syria was going to be next after US invaded IRAQ in 2003. and Israel invaded lebanon.
in the end i really think , the advantage is on the side of Russia as long Syrian Army have
soldiers to fight. and Russia can keep very low ,the cost of the war ,and can hold most of their places for several years more . Because if Americans goes and start bombing Syrian army ,Russia will give an ultimatum to Americans and if they continue it will close the airspace to them , So public opinion will be on the side of Russia ,even from Americans citizens,if an American plane shutdown for seeking a fight in a place they are illegally there. Even United Nations will give the reason to Syria ,since Americans are invading the airspace of a sovereign nation and are aiding Alqaeda.
What i think Syria should be doing is heavily reinforce ,all its positions and major routes from Damascus to Latakia ,clear the rural zones of Aleppo completely and prepare to deal with a major invasion from Turkey or Jordan .and finally eliminate all the terrorist in damascus. which are the most annoying group of all and dangerous too.
attrition wars works ,Americans lost many wars this way , from vietnam ,Korea ,Iraq second war ,they also lost in Angola war , when they backed some rebels. and they will lose in Syria too ,since there have to be more than 75,000 rebels that are financed ,and needs logistics and weapons. and Turkey have more than 200,000 soldiers near Syria border . Turkey will not be able to continue its war against Syria for another 5 years.