Syrian War: News #11

PapaDragon wrote:

Man, this was one crazy day.

Anyone remember that shooting in Zurich? On any other day it would have been breaking news for 12 hours straight but today it's barely a blip after commercials.

And you know things are insane when even Lord Kek can't get any screentime even though his electoral vote is ongoing...

calm wrote:Putin: There will be a military escalation in the war against terrorism after the death of the ambassador

d_taddei2 wrote:Syrian ambassador to the UN discloses names of foreign intelligence agents remaining in east Aleppo

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-syrian-ambassador-un-discloses-names-foreign-intelligence-agents-remaining-east-aleppo/

OminousSpudd wrote:It's a Canik apparently.

Minor correction...

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

franco wrote:

aka "the suicide shooter" said he was not leaving the place alive. Hope he likes his 72 virgin fleas... those suckers will be thirsty!

Perhaps he will now spend eternity sealed in a tent infested with the fleas of a thousand camels....

They promise virgins. They did not specify gender or species of the virgins...

It's been quite a rough year for rebels in comparison to 2015. A series of significant military setbacks have placed them in an uncertain situation heading into 2017. The sudden collapse of Eastern Aleppo is a testament to the deteriorating situation the rebels have found themselves in after 5 years of ruthless, civil war.

Syria
What Next for Rebels in Syria?
December 20, 2016

It's been quite a rough year for rebels in comparison to 2015. A series of significant military setbacks have placed them in an uncertain situation heading into 2017. The sudden collapse of Eastern Aleppo is a testament to the deteriorating situation the rebels have found themselves in after 5 years of ruthless, civil war.


Setbacks extend over the entirety of Syria, the fall of pockets right across Damascus' countryside, including Daraya & Khan Al Shih and the loss of approximately 40% of Eastern Ghouta, the two failed military campaigns to break the siege of Eastern Aleppo leading to devastating losses, inability to advance in Qunetria/Southern Syria, reversal of advances in Northern Hama and loss of ground in Latakia's countryside.

It wasn't all grim for rebels in Syria as they were able to make significant advances in Northern Aleppo and are on the cusp of capturing the strategic town of 'Al'Bab'. Advances were also clocked in around southern Aleppo with the recapture of 'Al Eiss' and several surrounding villages endangering the local SAA stronghold of 'Al- Hadher'.

Furthermore, rebels have also struggled on a political scale as key backers such as Turkey have slowed down their support. Turkey's attempts to mend ties with Russia has subsequently led to the downscaling of support to rebels in the Idlib province and the relocation of many fighters from Idlib to Northern Aleppo, harming preparations to launch large offensives on Aleppo and Hama. Other low-scale backers such as Egypt and even Jordan are now beginning to lean towards the government's side which isn't positive news in the eyes of the opposition.

Following a relatively unsuccessful year, capped off with the loss of Aleppo, one can't be faulted in wondering how they could turn it all around in 2017 and kick-start efforts to once again, topple the government.

They have several options:

Option 1 - Hama
Hama in itself has always been a fairly anti-government city even as it has managed to escape the clutches of war or any serious uprising. This statement can be backed by the city's attempted uprising in 1982 which led to, what many describe as a 'massacre', creating local hatred towards the government and an embedded Islamist community which rebels could easily capitalise on. A successful rebel assault on the city would be free thousands of potential reserves which could be utilised to launched offensives elsewhere. This possibility is not too far off as a half-hearted rebel assault earlier this year saw them (zabranjeno) exposed government lines and capture several large towns such as 'Halfaya' and 'Taybat Imam'. A large, concentrated assault on the city could prove to be successful in the not so distant future.

Option 2 - Khansser route

A short term objective which can be easily met would be the cutting of the only route in Aleppo city, the 'Khansser' road. The road is long and vulnerable to sudden attacks as seen various times last year when rebel factions & ISIS were able to successfully cut off the route, causing the government to frantically counter attack, successfully distracting them from other front-lines and inflicting serious losses. A new, larger assault that can hold ground for a long amount of time would subsequently place Aleppo under siege.

Option 3 - Latakia[

An area hostile to Warplanes and heavy armoured vehicles, Latakia's countryside is an area where (If focused on) rebels are able to thrive. Small blitz campaigns ignited by rebels in Latakia has seen a lot of success over the last year as they have been able to easily overrun fixed SAA positions and avoid serious airstrikes. Dense forest also hinders the defender's ability to see advancing troops which would play in favour of the rebels. A large push in Latakia would threaten what many call the 'government's heartland', which is bound to trigger a large response by the SAA, distracting them from other fronts.

Option 4 - Aleppo

Although many believe that another military campaign in Aleppo is plain suicide and borderline foolish, at least for the short term, an attack from two fronts may prove to be devastating for SAA forces. The Syrian Army's elite units stationed in Aleppo are expected to leave shortly, to be replaced with unreliable units (usually conscripts or foreign militias) which are prone to collapse. Simultaneous assaults from the North (Euphrates Shield forces) and from the west (Idlib factions) may prove to be decisive.

Option 5 - Southern Syria

Although remaining suspiciously dormant over the last year (excluding sporadic clashes with government forces near the abandoned battalion), Southern Syria is the perfect place for rebels to kick start a comeback in the conflict. A sudden, large scaled assault on government positions would almost certainly catch the SAA by surprise, potentially leading to a wide collapse in defence lines and devastating losses for the SAA. The momentum could then be used to make a push towards Damascus, the capital of Syria.



It's not an impossible task for rebels to bounce back and shift the tide of the war bakc in their favour however they will need to play their cards right with the right timing. 2017 will be a deciding year for the Syrian civil war, its make or break for all sides.

calm wrote:

SDF Forces have reached Lake Tabqa/Assad

JohninMK wrote:We can see the partitioning of Syria going on in front of our eyes down the Euphates. Russian west and US east. Virtually all the bridges in the centre and south have already been blown by the Coalition.

Maximum possible advances to be made before 21st Jan. If necessary they will sweep up the land and leave the villages as enemy islands. This is all about how it looks on a map.

With the militants defeated in Aleppo city, many have raised the questions: ‘What will happen now?’. A common answer is ‘Idlib’. Although this sounds logical, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) will have to put a lot of resources in an operation that drives into the rebel heartland.

Furthermore, the Turkish backed Euphrates Shield forces and the Islamic State are still threatening Aleppo city from the east, while the Jaish Al-Fateh agglomeration threatens the city from the west and the south.

This breakdown will focus on several possible scenarios that will further shape the military balance in the Aleppo Governorate. Note that most frontline positions are based on recent satellite footage.

Western Aleppo

For the past days, West Aleppo has been under attack by Jaish al Fateh at the Zahraa and Mallah front. Moreover, the militants are well in range to lob their hellcannon projectiles into the densely populated areas of western Aleppo.

In order to remove this threat, the SAA should secure the Anadan plains, which cities have been bastions for the militants since the start of the war (figure 2).


A full-frontal assault from the (south)east is doable, but will probably result in a large number of casualties. It is therefore more beneficial to capture the western flank (Simeon mountains) and besiege the area first.

The initial phase will consist of a big push towards Mansoura and Kafr Da’el, capturing the Military Research Center and the Al-Jazira district in the process. Meanwhile, the SAA and its allies can conduct operations to push into Al-Layramoun, Mallah and Bayanoun, if only to draw fighters away from the main operation and cause confusion amongst its ranks (figure 3).


Second, the SAA will push towards Kafr Bissin from the north and south, while also putting pressure on the western flank of Kafr Hamra and moving into the industrial area of Bayanoun and Hayyan. This will effectively besiege the Anadan plains (figure 4).


Most likely a similar battle like East Aleppo will unfold, where simultaneous attacks are being carried out on various axes to maximize the pressure on the besieged militants. This will lead either to the complete annihilation of the militants, or to a similar deal as we have seen in East Aleppo.

Khan al-Assal

Another possible operation in western Aleppo countryside could be securing the remaining Rashidin suburbs (4 & 5) and Khan al-Assal (figure 5). The latter is considered the western gate to Aleppo city.



e the ability to launch attacks towards the north (Mansoura) and subsequently to besieging the Anadan plains. The area is also an excellent to launch attacks towards the south, along the M5 highway axis. Furthermore, the area can also act as a stepping stone for an operation along the highway 60 toward the strategic Bab al-Hawa bordercrossing (figure 6). Unfortunatly, the northern flank with Mansoura occupies the high ground. Also, the militants are well entrenched in this area, making the only possible way of attack, full-frontal, very difficult. It is therefore more likely to succeed once Mansoura is control prior to such an operation.



Khan Tuman

When Jaish al Fateh retook the Khan Tuman area in May/June 2016, they used it later that year to launch their successful attacks against pro-government positions west of the Ramouseh district. From here, they were able to break the siege of East Aleppo, if only for a short while. Although the East Aleppo pocket is non-existent anymore, this area can still pose a great threat for the Syrians inside Aleppo city. Moreover, the Khan Tuman area is situated on a high that overlooks the northern part of the Qinassrin plains and is therefore very strategic (figure 7).



Operations will most likely start with the SAA and their allies targeting Qarasi and Marata and its military terrain. Capturing Qarassi will ensure that the road between Khan Tuman and Humayra is blocked, while the Marata area overlooks Khan Tuman and Al-Khalidiyah. Furthermore, by controlling both positions, the pro-government forces will be able to maneuver from multiple axes towards Khan Tuman (figure 8 & 9).



Capturing Khan Tuman will provide a nice buffer for the Ramouseh front, but will also be a springboard for subsequent operations in the Qinassrin plains (Al-Eis). It also will threaten militant positions at the western side of the M5 highway and to the north at the Rashidin and Khan al-Assal suburbs (figure 10). Nevertheless, the militants have shown they are capable to retake the area if they apply enough pressure and the region should therefore be heavily fortified.

Operations west of Aleppo focus on removing militants’ staging areas in the region: the Anadan plains, the Khan al-Assal suburb and Khan Tuman. The militants are fully aware of this and will try to hold it with everything they can in order to hold their grip on the western flank of Aleppo city.

Conclusion
With the fall of the East Aleppo pocket, there is nore more purpose for the insurgents to throw everything they have at the well fortified positions on Aleppo city’s western flank. They can try to slowly chip away territory, but ultimately they are in defensive positions and are at the mercy of the SAA and its allies.

miketheterrible wrote:Rumor: apparently 30+ T-90's entered Syria at Russan airbase, including other equipment

SDF continue their advance along the Al-Assad lake, liberating several villages from IS.

KiloGolf wrote:Somebody explain to me how can SDF take 57 villages in eastern Raqqa province in less that 24 h?

VladimirSahin wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:Somebody explain to me how can SDF take 57 villages in eastern Raqqa province in less that 24 h?

Terrain plus lack of man power for ISIL's defenses IMO. SDF has coalition support plus they built up momentum.