Syrian War: News #11

SDF took control of Shali and Hnahud villages vs #IS
hali is in the red circle and Nahud I believe is in the green

KoTeMoRe wrote:In the course of january lengthy footage of ATGM from SSO will be "leaked".

About 50+ hits. All "neva bin seen befow".

More info to come.

KiloGolf wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:In the course of january lengthy footage of ATGM from SSO will be "leaked".

About 50+ hits. All "neva bin seen befow".

More info to come.

Can't wait

White Helmets among signatories, won't restore water supply to millions of ppl in #Damascus unless demands are met.
Wadi Barada statement: we will let teams to fix water spring if SAA-Hezb stop attack, siege lift & monitor ceasefire by intl observers

calm wrote:...................
#Idlib: Heavy #US airstrikes on #JFS Headquarters near #Sarmada in #Idlib Province today. Many were killed.
https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/816309325169885188

Suspected US airstrikes in Sarmada #Syria, part of a broader campaign against Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra)

@worldonalert u.s fucking idiots

@worldonalert go strike Hezbollah who are a designated terrorist group u fuckn idiots

@RahmanBassel @worldonalert butt hizbulla is not muslim.

@worldonalert when usa bomb rebels, very funny to see how assadist are quiet...

@worldonalert @Paradoxy13 no end to American war crimes.

@worldonalert US is the greatest enemy of Islam. They will kill you just for being Muslim. Shame on Arab leaders that work together w/ evil

franco wrote:Syrian Army now has 4,000 men in the Wadi Barada area. Probably going to take more then that. Rebels have the mountains and according to a twitter report yesterday, 2,000 men of which only 500 are locals. So don't expect a surrender and green buses right away, could be a bloody battle.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-reinforcements-pour-wadi-barada-region-massive-offensive/

Qalaat Al Mudiq ‏@QalaatAlMudiq  7m7 minutes ago NE #Damascus: Rebels from E. #Qalamoun shelled Regime Airbases of Dumayr & Nasiriyah with tanks & Grad rockets in support for #WadiBarada.

KiloGolf wrote:4000 should be enough with sufficient CAS from SyAAF and RuAF. Also they better put their Hinds to good use there.

calm wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:4000 should be enough with sufficient CAS from SyAAF and RuAF. Also they better put their Hinds to good use there.

SAA have dominant positions around some towns.

Wadi Barrada from Syrian Army Side






Raining hell. They will surrender eventually.

#WadiBarada: massive airstrike on Ain Al-Fijah.
video
https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/815922331197591556

With the new year 2017 knocking at the door of the Syrian war, there are many players in Bilad al-Sham: some are directly present with their forces on the ground, the others through their proxies with differing goals. After five and a half years of war there are winners and there are losers.

Russia:

Russia had been politically hibernating, unwilling to engage in the Middle East despite cries from the region for a balanced superpower situation, one that the US held for many decades, precisely since the Perestroika reform. The Libyan war was a good example of the lack of Russian political engagement, allowing a failed state situation to take place, and triggered by the international community whilst removing Moammar Ghaddafi without drawing up any plans to preserve stability in the country. This allowed jihadists to move in and create insurgency for many years throughout Libya and to-date.

Even when the “Arab Spring” (Tsunami really rather than Spring) blew over the Middle East and the war in Syria started, Russia was still hiding in its lair..

The re-awakening started only when a media campaign blew up in the face of Damascus, accusing the Syrian government of using chemical weapons against rebel-controlled areas soliciting a call for an international military action against Assad. The US administration prepared domestic and international opinion generally for a military intervention which would hit Damascus and change the regime, despite the complete lack of any alternative.

This is when Russia woke up, pushed by Iran. Iranian officials visited Moscow with a clear message: if Damascus is bombed, Israel will be next. Still, the Kremlin acted as a mediator, late 2013, and coordinated a way out, with Washington, to end this critical period for the Middle East by outlining a plan for Assad to cede control of its chemical arsenal. The US took the Iranian threat seriously and wanted to avoid a wider Middle Eastern war without any visibility of the possible devastating consequences. Russia however remained shy about its involvement in Syria until, again, Iran pushed for a direct intervention to save the Syrian government in April 2015. This is when Russia saw the opportunity and was ready to jump.

Russia sent its forces to Syria, enlarged its naval base in Tartus, took hold of a military airport in Hamymeen, signed a 50 year contract with Damascus for its long term free base with a wide window on the Mediterranean, trained its pilots and special forces on real war scenarios.

So doing it increased by additionall $10bn its armament sales and it imposed itself on the Middle Eastern and International arena: it showed the world its capacity to exclude and marginalise the US and Europe from the peace process (previously Washington’s exclusive arena for decades): it managed to create a breach between an important NATO member (Turkey) and the US. It achieved all that and more through the Syrian gateway, where Russia became the dominant international player.

The cost for Moscow in human lives was, to-date, less than 30 officers and soldiers, and a few dozen private military contractors. Russia used up its MOD budget allocated for training in Syria but exceeded the original financial commitment, a “deficit” largely covered by the sale of weapons and the live trials of dozens of new weapons in Syria in full view of the world.

Iran:

The Islamic Republic of Iran enjoyed excellent relationship with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad until 2011 when the war started. Assad was part of the “axis of the resistance” who supported Iran on the international arena, supported the Palestinian cause and groups (Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Popular Front-General command…) against Israel and allowed Tehran to send weapons via Damascus into Lebanon to supply the Iranian proxy: Hezbollah.

Over the five and a half years of war, Iran has spent over $25bn in Syria to support the Syrian government and people by supplying Damascus with financial aid to pay salaries, build roads, reconstruct parts of destroyed cities, offer medical support to hospitals, sending oil and hundreds of advisors to prevent Assad from falling. Iran sent thousands of Iraqis, Afghan and Pakistani to fight, hold the ground or carry out offensives to recover land from jihadists and rebels. The Iran Air Force supplied many embattled Syrian cities. Many pilots were present in Syria offering support to their Syrian counterparts. Iran invested in the reconstruction of the Syrian armament industry to meet the significant missile and rocket demands during the five and a half years of war.

Politically, Iran was behind the Russian involvement in Syria by explaining the critical situation it was in in April 2015 when Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Brigade, visited Moscow for that purpose . A year later, Tehran reopened its gates to the Turkish President RecepTayyib Erdogan to repair the catastrophic relationship with Russia following the downing of the Sukhoi-24 late in 2015. Moreover, Iran exerted serious pressure on Turkey to join the peace process and brought it to Moscow to start a ceasefire excluding the US administration and Europe, to the delight of Russia.

All the above represent serious investment, diplomatic efforts and huge financial and human losses (Iranian advisors and their proxies) for Tehran to regain the position it used to enjoy with Damascus and with President Assad prior 2011.

Hezbollah:

Prior to 2011 Hezbollah enjoyed full support from President Assad. In fact, Assad visited Hezbollah positions in the south of Lebanon, and established robust relationships with its leadership before his mandate as President. He helped removed key intelligence officers in Lebanon (Brigadier General Ghazi Kanaan and his team) and the vice President (Abdel Halim Khaddam) so as to favour Hezbollah’s position and relationship.

Between 2003 and 2006, Assad was under serious regional and international pressure to give up on supporting Hezbollah and cut the supply road between Iran and Lebanon that used to flow via Damascus. He resisted this pressure and, when the occasion presented itself, supplied Hezbollah with most advanced anti-tank missiles, a crucial weapon and a major contribution changing the course of the second Israeli-War in 2006. Furthermore, he supplied Hezbollah, under the full control of the Israeli Air Force during the 30 days war in 2006, with a new version of al-Fateh missiles offering his M-600 long range and most accurate and destructive missiles to Hezbollah, waved in the face of Israel through its Secretary General Sayed Hasan Nasrallah’s famous sentence: “We shall hit Haifa and targets much beyond Haifa if Beirut is targeted”.

Syria was also Hezbollah’s favourite nearby backyard where commanders and top ranking officials considered the country as a breathing space with a friendly entourage: Syria was Hezbollah’s Switzerland.

In 2012, Hezbollah intervened in Syria to protect the holy shrines around Damascus. Assad rejected any support in the first year of the war. It was not until 2013 that Hezbollah became fully engaged, with tens of thousands of militants distributed all over the Syrian geography to secure the borders and the major Syrian cities.

Due to the vast engagement in a huge geographic area like Syria (Lebanon is 10.500 km2 while Syria is 180.000 km2), the number of Hezbollah fighters seriously increased to the point where Nusrallah told commanders (in a private meeting) to be ready because “there will be a martyr in every single house to stop jihadists in Syria and prevent these from moving the fight to Lebanon”. Commanders enrolled their own sons into training programs and these were sent to fight in Syria.

Hezbollah used to run battles (against Israel) at the level of battalions or units. Today, it is fighting at the level of division, with different branches harmonised: the artillery, armoured divisions, infantry, developing and modifying weaponry, armed drones and the coordination of air strikes with the troops’ advance.

Hezbollah used to attack Israeli positions in the south of Lebanon or military patrols on the borders. During the last years of war in Syria, Hezbollah attacked cities, strategic mountains, fought in the desert, in open fields, and engaged in dense urban warfare in all weather conditions.The Lebanese organisation used to fight in small zones, today it is fighting an operational theatre on multiple zones and fronts, imposing challenges on its planning command and troops support by every means possible.

The military engagement on several fronts turned Hezbollah from a guerrilla group to a non-regular organised army with tens of thousands of men and a huge infrastructure in Syria. It was therefore no longer possible for Hezbollah to return to Lebanon and leave Syria permanently, but it improvised new bases, mainly along the Syrian-Lebanese borders, both away from and within residential areas. The Syrian mountains offer an adequate hideout for Hezbollah’s strategic long-range missiles, causing a real threat to Israel.

But Hezbollah has lost around 1.600 militants (including top ranking field commanders and a member of the Jihadi council, the highest level among decision makers) and more than 7.000 wounded to stop cities and strategic positions from falling to the Jihadists and rebels. It took, to-date, four years of war with full engagement to regain the position Hezbollah enjoyed in 2011 and to keep Syria as a friendly country and passage for its weapon supply and continuous existence in Lebanon.

What was allowed for Hezbollah in Syria prior to 2011 is still allowed in 2017. Moreover, Hezbollah enjoyed a wide support among Sunni, even Salafi radicals, following its second war with Israel in 2006. Due to its decisive military role in Syria, Hezbollah has lost considerable support among these to the point that countries of the region now feel comfortable in labelling it a “terrorist organisation”.

Al-Qaida:

When the leader of “Islamic State in Iraq” (ISI) Abu Baker al-Baghdadi sent a group of commanders led by Abu Mohamad al-Joulani in May-June 2011 to establish a base in Syria, he was unaware that this move would cost him dearly and will lead later on to a serious split among the jihadists.

From 2011 to 2013, Joulani managed to build a robust reputation among Syrian rebels, leading attacks with suicide bombers and effective planning under the name of his organisation, Jabhat al-Nusra. This “success” alarmed Baghdadi (informed about Joulani’s intention to “play solo”): in April 2013, the leader of ISI declared the merger between ISIS and Nusra creating the “Islamic State in Iraq and Sham” (ISIS/ISIL). To protect his achievement and save his neck, Joulani announced the split from ISI and self-declared his organisation as part of al-Qaida, without even consulting Ayaman al-Zawaheri, AQ Central Emir. To his delight, Zawaheri adopted Joulani: it was a mutual convenience opportunity for both men. Al-Qaida (AQ) was growing bigger than ever with a strong presence in the heart of the Middle Eastern events.

Throughout the years, AQ in Syria became bigger, stronger, richer and formidably equipped with weapons. It has developed remote-controlled Vehicle with Improvised Explosive devices (VIEDs), used drones, tanks, US most advanced anti-Tank TOWs and managed to combine guerrilla and classical warfare. Today AQ in Syria counts over 10.000 militants and have managed to infiltrate the Syrian society in rural Aleppo and Idlib mainly.

Even if Nusra has rebranded to become JabhatFath al-Sham, militants are part of Qaidat al-Jihad, holding the same aims, ideology, creed and goal: establish an Islamic Emirate.

Regardless of what 2017 could bring to AQ in Syria, AQ central has managed to reboot itself following the death of Oussama Bin laden and many core leaders in Yemen and Syria. It will continue to represent a threat to the regimes and monarchies of the Middle East for a very long time to come.

Syria:

In 2011, the SyrianPresident Bashar al- Assad was watching the “Arab Spring” effect all around him, confident it wouldn’t reach his country. He was unaware of the regional and international intentions to remove him. The “Islamic State in Iraq” (ISI) was also planning to create chaos in Bilad al-Sham, a perfect ambiance for its militants to proliferate.

Assad was badly advised by his entourage who discouraged him from implementing serious reforms in the first months to contain the “revolution”. No one, among the high ranking officials in Syria, believed that a plan to destabilise the country was already in operation regardless of any domestic reforms: thousands of jihadists travelled to Syria from all over the world and billions were spent to arm the “revolution”.

The world was watching how Jihadists were infiltrating the “revolution” and hijacking it. That didn’t create a problem or a reaction simply because Assad was due to fall in few months.

Throughout the years of war, Bilad al-Sham became the Mecca of all Jihadists, creating a real split in Syrian society and pushing it toward sectarianism.

Cities changed hands, hundreds of small groupings were formed, the inevitable infighting among rebels and jihadists was noticed, and defections of officers and soldiers of the Syrian Army weakened it. Syria is the second country, according to the United Nations, to host so many different nationalities on its soil with the difference that all these are armed and fighting each other. The number of victims among civilians, soldiers and militants is unknown but fluctuates between 300 and 400.000 and the number of wounded largely surpasses the million. The devastating economic destruction (infrastructure, agriculture, industry and commerce) is beyond $280bn. There are 5 million refugees outside the country and 6 million internally displaced people. Whoever will control Syria, it will be an almost impossible task to regain the state of affairs prior to 2011.



Who are the winners? Syria as a country and Syrians as a population are certainly not among the winners. Their country has been turned into a battleground for many different kinds of opposing forces.

During reconciliation agreement in West Ghouta: A Syrian Army soldier meets with his brother who fought with rebels in Sa'sa'

JohninMK wrote:

franco wrote:Ibrahim Joudeh ‏@Ibra_Joudeh 1 hour ago

#SAA 4th div, Brigade 42 arrived to Wadi Barada region today, hours later , ceasefire is announced in the area & Jihadists want to surrender


Was thinking the same thing this morning when it was announced. The towns and areas start negotiating surrender as soon as the 42nd arrives or in a couple of cases as soon as it was announced they would be the next stop. In an Army that doesn't inspire a lot of respect... this is one of the best!

There seem to be some doubts over the ceasefire. The Russian negotiators have pulled out.

I saw a report from 3 days ago that said that a big problem might be a AQ presence there.

29 Dec 2016
Electricity rationing program to be started today in Hama, looks brutal. Problems of fraud & stealing electricity being reported as well.

2-Since 2002 #Syrian Govt updated 80% of its power stations to work on gas as part of generating cleaner form of energy

3-Hayan which was hit by #ISIL has been responsible for processing (cooking gas too) & transferring gas to power stations all over #Syria.

4-Make no mistake about it. With #ISIL hitting energy sector and #Nusra in control of water access to its capital, state under full assault

5-This marks a new phase in the war & seems to be a direct response by the main backers of the opposition to the recent events in #Aleppo

6- If #Assad was going to indeed win this war, he would win destroyed state that would need massive new Invest. in infrastructure to survive

7-The #SyrianArmy recent advances on the battlefield are now being countered by a potent new war using both water and now energy as weapons

8-The idea here is that the opposition and its backers are now at war not so much only with #SyrianArmy but with the #Syrian State

9-What Opposition could not achieve on battlefield will now be achieved by hitting the every day needs of citizens under the #Syrian State

10-The 2 largest terrorist groups in the world #ISIL & #alqaeda are now engaged in hitting energy sect. & taking contol of water in #Syria

11-2000 fighters only now control the water access & hence livelihood of 5 million people in arguably one of the oldest cities in the world

12-The moronic group of experts who kept telling us that #ISIL is in bed with #Assad need to now explain the Hayan gas facility bombing

13-As for water crisis, one is led to believe issue started after #SyrianArmy ordered strike partially damaging one of the 3 stations. FALSE

14-In direct contrast to pre- 2011, hardly a single resident of #Damascus could trust the water enough to drink from it since 2012

15-For nearly 4 years, water was provided at the will of the opposition and when it did come, it was only used for washing & sanitary needs

16-#Damascus opted to use a patch-up system of negotiations. When the cuts went for long, it would send negotiators to work something out

17-This 4y old procedure took a sudden turn south after the events in #Aleppo. With cuts not being reversed this time, #SyrianArmy responded

18-The team that arrived at the station yesterday reported that strike only damaged cement roof & that they can turn water back on in 24 h

19-This left the technical team with no doubt that the opposition/armed groups used the strike merely as an excuse to shut the water off

20-Every attempt to arrive at a peaceful end to this crisis has now failed. 1500 fighters from outside the wadi refuse to abide by agreement

21-This issue being its top priority now, the #Syrian leadership has now decided that only a military solution is left at its disposal here

22 #Syrian leadership & opposition may lack nuclear weapons but water is possibly now developing as this war's version of a nuclear weapon

23-Notewothy that while many #Syria pundits spend hours discussing differences in armed groups, #Damascus views them all as largely the same

24-Recall how in the past and as #Nusra was helping cut water on #Damascus, #ISIL was cutting water on #Aleppo

25- Later on, as #SyrianArmy took control of E #Aleppo, #ISIL cut water from the Euphrates River.

26- To the #Syrian leadership, ISIL = Nusra = Jund al Aqsa = Ahrar = Zanki =....=....=...

27- As 4 foreign backers,negotiators confirmed to Dam that Opp received strict instructions from Gulf backers not 2 give up control of water

calm wrote:5.5 milion people in Damascus without water, and now this.

As a result of this terrorist attack by the Islamic State, millions of Syrians will have to find alternative sources of heating in order to warm their homes this winter.
For the civilians of Damascus, the destruction of the Hayyan Gas Company factory could not come at a worse time, as they have been without water for more than two weeks now.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/millions-syrians-left-without-heat-isis-destroys-hayyan-gas-company-factory-east-homs/