PAK-FA, T-50: News #4

marcellogo wrote:

Kimppis wrote:

The first bath of 12 (2 2019 , 2 2020, 4 2021 , 4 2022) is probably for Akhtunisnk and Lípetsk. After that one or two squadrons for the first combat unit until 2027.

Good lord...  

Sorry, but I'm not even going to try to spin that positively... 12 by the end of 2020 was already bad enough.

Those numbers look really exact. Are they really confirmed!?

marcellogo, any comments?

And no, I'm not "happy" about any of this, quite the opposite in fact.

From what source he takes such data?
And for what reason, if the rate would be such they have involved such a big factory like KnAAPO?
4 planes a years you didn't need an assembly line, just a pair of benches.

But if Russia made more Su.-57 now, who will pilot the aorplanes?? in what airbase the Su-57 will be deployed??
Russia has not avaliable pilots and new/overhauled airbases for the Su-57.


In the case of Su-34, the production was:
2006 1
2007 1
2008 1
2009 2
2010 4
2011 6
2012 10
25 airplanes in 7-8 years , counting the first was made, in fact , as 8th prototype in 2005.
KnAAP0 is producing and maintenance of Su-35 (20 per year) , upgrading Su-27SM(3), develop the Su-57 and also producing in large scale civilian aircraft SSJ.  (30 or more per year).

The Su-57 is a totally new Project and Russia dont want problems or surprises
The production will be enough for train new pilots in the new airplane and develop correctly the Project, that now is not totally ended

Also, as I said before Russia is producing already to types of figthers: Su-30 and Su-35, enough for the moment, and now there are not pilots enough for expand the size of the Air Force or the Navy, so for the moment State Arms Program is mainly for replace soviet airplanes in the next years, and after that a slow growth

First of all, shouldn't the Su-57 replace older planes. Russia doesn't have enough resources to train pilots now? They didn't realize any of that earlier and plan accordingly? As well, only some weeks or months ago you were still predicting around 60 would be ordered by around 2025, right? But now, all of a sudden, everything is very different?

Yeah, I remember those production numbers for Su-35 and Su-34, but that was before 2012. So are we returning to the 90s now? This is 2018, there's just no excuse. It's clear they didn't want this, they didn't plan for this. Originally they very publicly announced a plan for around 60 Su-57s by 2020. You don't test the first protype in 2010, while starting the production properly 15 or 20 years later and act like everything is OK.

So is the situation like this... They are simply unable to produce next generation equipment in numbers. This would also finally explain why Russian military procurement was going surprisingly well, despite it being quite behind in many technological indicators, like top 500 supercomputers, industrial robots, patents, etc. They can surely churn out upgraded Soviet designs, but when it comes to stuff like Su-57, Armata and potentially S-500, there are huge delays, nothing happens. And Ill admit right away that this is just me speculating, Im not saying any of that is exactly true and I don't want it to be, but right it doesn't look too good.  

Of course certain people exaggerate the importance of stealth, but if its's so useless, then why design Su-57 at all. Not to mention other countries and their projects.  

Weak, weak, weak. Fanboys and spin doctors (and I'm not talking about any particular posters here or anything like that) will just keep repeating how this another sign of Russian strength and how this doesn't matter, or whatever. I'd love to as well, to be perfectly honest, but I can't. Maybe it sounds like I'm overreacting or something, but I don't care.

It's also probably true that those planes won't actually be needed anytime soon, it's not like WW3 is going to start, but it just shows... weakness. A word I dont want to associate with Russia. Uncle Sam and China don't respect it one bit and neither do I. It indicates that there are considerable issues with Russian economy, industry and technology. On a scale that I didn't believe, and didn't want to believe in, earlier (OK, that sounds kind of dramatic, so kvs and other shouldn't take it too seriously). And of course none of that is actually 100% confirmed, so... there's still hope.

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My current mood is indeed quite pessimistic, so I might as well add some other predictions

- Economic growth will not reach 3%

- Some of the earlier estimates on Armata production (South Front, etc.) are indeed accurate, and no more than 50 T-14s will be produced annually, at most, maybe less. And that is while Russia "prioritizes" Ground Forces...

- S-500 wont be ready anytime soon, the Western so-called experts are actually correct. I'm talking about mid-20s

- Nothing massive, but additional delays with heavier drones as well

- Recent estimates on Gorshkov production are accurate too... So 2 operational Gorshkovs by 2020, 4 by 2023 and 6 maybe by 2027

- No additional mid-sized Frigate orders until the late 20s. The remaining 2 or 3 of Grigorovich-class ships already ordered will indeed be sold to India, because I don't think those reports have been fully debunked yet

- Small delays even with Yasens, new orders come in slow... Maybe 10 new SSNs by around 2030. They somehow need additional 10 quickly to replace the remaining older ones after that

- Lider will remain a paper project past 2030 (sorry, Eehnie, lol). Something will be ready by the mid-30s

- Delays with helicopter carriers, etc. Maybe 1 operational in 2030. Let's not even talk about any bigger projects

That's my "blackpill timeline" (gotta mention this on Karlin's comments lol). And the worst thing is that in many it doesn't look so unlikely anymore. Sorry. I will also repeat once more that I don't want any of it to be true.

You are aware nothing is set in stone, right? No new orders of anything happened yet. We are still basing off of old orders to be completed.

You may want thousands of this or that, but I rather trust the MoD. And that, Su-35 is still one of the most powerful aircraft flying right now. Want stealth? Ok, have J-20. That flying piece of shit is using all old Soviet technology but in a fancy airframe. That's reality of things. You want Russia to be like US, we're they build shit tons of aircraft that don't work, using technology that works part of the time with performance not all that amazing and barely competes against something that is working and powerful, while spending significantly more on it. You think that's a good idea?

You are also aware that you are on a fucking forums right? One that is about Russia but only a few members here are actually from the country right? And that not a single one of us works for Russian MoD, right?

Fuck you can be real fucking stupid when you want to be.

http://tass.com/defense/990172

First batch in 2019 for Su-57 for RuAF.

miketheterrible wrote:http://tass.com/defense/990172

First batch in 2019 for Su-57 for RuAF.

I remember all the BS back in 2010 about how production could not possibly start before 2020. Now that the PAK-FA
has been implemented without delays we have the haters moving their shrieking to total numbers of production.

The only thing that matters is if the Su-57 is functional and not some work in progress like the F-35. The point of
having the first batch consist of a dozen aircraft is to keep on working out any kinks and not produce a big pile of junk.

Again, personal insults are totally unnecessary.

Yeah, as I said there's still some hope. None of that is 100% confirmed, but it doesn't look too great at the moment.

And I don't want thousands of anything, just 12 Su-57s by the end 2020 and atleast around 60 by 2025. That is very far from thousands and it should be realistic, considering that the first prototype flew back in 2010.

I know Chinese technology shouldn't be mentioned because it's just going to trigger some people on this forum. So I didn't J-20 specifically again. "That flying piece of shit is using all old Soviet technology but in a fancy airframe. That's reality of things." No, that's the exact opposite of reality. But I knew you would say something like that, atleast you admitted that the airframe is fancy, so that's something.

But this is not about China. As I've said, there's really no need to compare Russia to China, I guess I shouldn't have done that in the first place. But the point is that the US and Russia are not the only countries designing such jets. And if any one these recent estimates on Su-57 are correct, there are some quite serious problems with the project.  

And I'd love to believe that the US builds shit tons of aircraft that don't work. I really, really do. But it's obvious that that is largely wishful thinking. F-35 is certainly a flawed design. But there are going to be a huge number of them in service quite soon, and to that you can add Uncle Sam's vassals. Plus hundreds of 4.5th gen fighters and almost 200 F-22s. Again, this is about some 60 Su-57 in comparison, 15 years after the first prototype, nothing more.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:http://tass.com/defense/990172

First batch in 2019 for Su-57 for RuAF.

I remember all the BS back in 2010 about how production could not possibly start before 2020.   Now that the PAK-FA
has been implemented without delays we have the haters moving their shrieking to total numbers of production.

The only thing that matters is if the Su-57 is functional and not some work in progress like the F-35.   The point of
having the first batch consist of a dozen aircraft is to keep on working out any kinks and not produce a big pile of junk.

I think they originally promised around 60 by 2020. So how is that not a delay? And if any of these recent predictions turn out to be correct, maybe a few dozen by 2025. If that is not a delay, then what is? Again, I'm not 100% sure that it will happen, I don't want it to and lastly, don't shoot the messenger.

Kimppis wrote:Again, personal insults are totally unnecessary.

Yeah, as I said there's still some hope. None of that is 100% confirmed, but it doesn't look too great at the moment.

And I don't want thousands of anything, just 12 Su-57s by the end 2020 and atleast around 60 by 2025. That is very far from thousands and it should be realistic, considering that the first prototype flew back in 2010.

I know Chinese technology shouldn't be mentioned because it's just going to trigger some people on this forum. So I didn't J-20 specifically again. "That flying piece of shit is using all old Soviet technology but in a fancy airframe. That's reality of things." No, that's the exact opposite of reality. But I knew you would say something like that, atleast you admitted that the airframe is fancy, so that's something.

But this is not about China. As I've said, there's really no need to compare Russia to China, I guess I shouldn't have done that in the first place. But the point is that the US and Russia are not the only countries designing such jets. And if any one these recent estimates on Su-57 are correct, there are some quite serious problems with the project.  

And I'd love to believe that the US builds shit tons of aircraft that don't work. I really, really do. But it's obvious that that is largely wishful thinking. F-35 is certainly a flawed design. But there are going to be a huge number of them in service quite soon, and to that you can add Uncle Sam's vassals. Plus hundreds of 4.5th gen fighters and almost 200 F-22s. Again, this is about some 60 Su-57 in comparison, 15 years after the first prototype, nothing more.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:http://tass.com/defense/990172

First batch in 2019 for Su-57 for RuAF.

I remember all the BS back in 2010 about how production could not possibly start before 2020.   Now that the PAK-FA
has been implemented without delays we have the haters moving their shrieking to total numbers of production.

The only thing that matters is if the Su-57 is functional and not some work in progress like the F-35.   The point of
having the first batch consist of a dozen aircraft is to keep on working out any kinks and not produce a big pile of junk.

I think they originally promised around 60 by 2020. So how is that not a delay. And if any of these recent predictions turn out to be correct, maybe a few dozen by 2025. If that is not a delay, then what is. Again, I'm not 100% sure that it will happen, I don't want it to and lastly, don't shoot the messenger.

Name me a piece of equipment that is state of art on the J-20 then if it isn't reality of things.

Radar - older PESA
Engines - initially older Russian Al engines
Sensors? Don't even know it's entire config.

Your idiocy is showing kimmpis.

f-35 is flawed, having more flawed flying isn't a good thing. As well, they don't have 200 F-22's. Which also has flaws might I add that killed pilots and still hasn't been fully fixed yet. Yes, their F-15s are solid, I give them that.

Heck, if Russia wants J-20 then, it could just out everything from Su-35 into a stealthy airframe then. I mean Su-35 is a fifth gen jet minus AESA radar (but that standard was US made) and it's lack of stealthy airframe. It's IRST system is solid, it has maws and dircm. It's got full on datalink and automization with it's on board systems.

But they won't because it's a transition.

Where on earth do you get that BS PESA radar from? It absolutely certainly has an AESA radar. There have been some reports, as I already mentioned on this very thread, that it has atleast roughly the same amount of T/R modules as F-22. Chinese 4.5th generation planes like J-10C and J-16 already have AESA-radars. J-10B already had a PESA, but it's no longer in production! Yes, engines are a weakness, but the 5th generation engine is probably going to be ready for testing quite soon and they've already tested Chinese engines on it. When it comes to sensors, public information is of course pretty much nonexistent, but I don't see any massive reason to doubt Chinese capabilities in sensors and electronics in 2018. Among other things, the number 1 supercomputers in the world uses Chinese chips... etc., etc. You certainly will doubt their capabilities, so this discussion is pointless anyway. But this topic is not about China.

But aren't Su-57s sensors even better than on Su-35? It has an AESA and also a better IRST. And a stealthy Su-35 wouldn't be a Su-35 anymore. I think it's more complicated than that, not that easy to do.

Kimppis wrote:Where on earth do you get that BS PESA radar from? It absolutely certainly has an AESA radar. There have been some reports, as I already mentioned on this very thread, that it has atleast roughly the same amount of T/R modules as F-22. Chinese 4.5th generation planes like J-10C and J-16 already have AESA/radars. J-10B already had a PESA, but it's no longer in production! Yes, engines are a weakness, but the 5th generations is probably going to be ready for testing quite soon and they've already tested Chinese engines on it. When it comes to sensors, public information is of course pretty much nonexistent, but I don't see any massive reason to doubt Chinese capabilities in sensors and electronics in 2018. Among other things, the number 1 supercomputers in the world uses Chinese chips... etc., etc. You certainly will doubt their capabilities, so this discussion is pointless anyway. But this topic is not about China.  

Using a loongson processor in larger quantities than needed compared to Xeons isn't an achievement. Same can be done with Elbrus 8S which btw has more raw power than the loongsong processors.

As for radar of J-20, here you go

https://www.russiadefence.net/t4816p125-chengdu-j-20-stealth-fighter#206174

That radar is indeed what has been shown multiple times.

He's almost certainly wrong. I don't think there even any publicly available images of J-20s radar.

I'll quote Wikipedia:

"It is believed to house the Type 1475 (KLJ-5) active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar with 1856 transmit/receive modules."

Or:

"The primary radar of J-20 will virtually be guaranteed to be a X band AESA radar. The X band features characteristics perfectly suited for a fighter aircraft, and the Chinese radar industry has produced many domestic AESAs in recent years. Rumours have suggested the J-20’s radar may be designated Type 1475. It may possibly include transmit/receive modules numbering near 2,000, which would be greater than the ~1,500 T/R module count for the F-22’s APG-77 and the T-50’s N036–1–01, as well as the 1,200 T/R module count for the F-35’s APG-81 — and given the large radome and bulkhead of the J-20 compared to its peers, such a high T/R module count may be quite within reach."

From this article: https://plarealtalk.com/j-20-sensors-and-mission-avionics-c369e9071495

And again: it's not the first Chinese fighter with one. J-10C and J-16 already have AESAs as well.

But this is off-topic.

Not only is there not a single bit of proof of an operational AESA radar, the radar mentioned has also been mentioned in other publications. Wikipedia isnt a source, especially a credible one.

But, once the plane does come out (don't believe publications of it coming out as it has been mentioned multiple times already), we may be able to put this to rest.

I noticed the uncertainty in the article too "most possibly". Well, so far, China has failed to really produce a lot in terms of AESA, hence Su-35 purchase.  Biggest failure of AESA that even us westerners have is it's cooling system.

I know it's a matter of time when it does happen and come out, but like all things Chinese military tech, it's rather heavily inflated. Not to laugh at of course.

It's not inflated, it's exactly the opposite, because 1. people don't want to believe in Chinese advances, because they want to believe that "their" countries' tech is still superior, like it was before and 2. because admittedly they have advanced exceptionally rapidly. If you are going to wait for some undeniable proof on really anything Chinese-military related, you're going to wait forever. I know you don't accept it, so fine, whatever, we're done with the topic, it's off-topic and it'll never get anywhere anyway.

But these are the last things I have to say about J-20:

The Wikipedia article is sourced, and it's also not the only source mentioning it. The radar has an official designation and estimate of its T/R count. That is the best you're ever going to get, when it comes to the Chinese military.

How has China failed to produce a lot in terms of AESA? As I've already said, Chinese 4.5th generation fighters have AESA radars! Su-35 has next to nothing to do with it. They didn't order more than 24 planes and the whole purchase should not be overanalyzed. The decision was apparently made years ago, because they didn't expect J-20 to enter service slightly earlier than originally expected. Now they get to add another 24 modern fighters, which are needed because they still have J-7s operational and they get to test and compare Russia's most modern operational fighter.

It's pretty much undeniable that J-20 has an AESA-radar. The radar on that image (J-20 thread) is probably J-10Bs PESA. China produced only around 50 of them, because there was a small delay with its AESA radar and then they moved on to J-10C with one (again, China has already atleast more than 100 fighters in service with an AESA, even before J-20).

There are 2 absolute facts:

1. J-20 is operational, albeit obviously in small numbers and without the final, 5th generation engine. Chinese generally don't brag, and their English language media is particularly secretive on military matters. Despite that, there are already images of operational J-20s in a few different bases, reports and images of air combat exercises, etc.
2. It has an Type 1475 AESA    

"I know it's a matter of time when it does happen and come out..." But that can't possible happen before the Russians, that's the problem amirite? As long as Russia is ahead, it's fine, otherwise impossible! Well, have fun in the near future...

And finally, I repeat: this is not only about China, or really about China at all. It's a problem (if the reports are true, of course), if Russia can't produce more than a few dozen Su-57s in 15 years time after the first prototype. That's not normal, perfectly OK, now is it? It has nothing to do with China. That's almost like returning to the 90s and early 2000s, when it took decades to get stuff like Su-30/34/35, Yasen, etc., operational and in numbers.

There's also the US, which is the main problem anyway, because Russian-Chinese relations are very good and USA was actually the first country with a 5th generation plane that entered service over 10 years ago. 1. F-22 is a thing, 2. F-35 shittiness should not be exaggerated, they are not that fucking stupid, come on. Wishful thinking! Even if Su-35 han handle it, atleast 1:1 + IADS, it's still a problem, there are gonna be hundreds, heck even thousands of them quite soon.  

So really we can put our heads in the sand and act that J-20 doesn't have an AESA and it's not even operational, but these reports, these estimates about Su-57 are still more or less problematic. That's my point, period.

Nice wall of text but no substance.

Burden of proof. Once we see the J-20 for what it has, that's great. Same with the "Aesa" J-10's.

No one believes it because of the fact China not only has little experience in it, it's also fact of them buying up tech from outside. It's like the engines used on the J-20.

But have fun whining about numbers of Su-57. And keep up with your opinions, cause really man, no one cares what you think MoD should do.  I seem to recall a quote that I saw online "those who think or say what Russian government should do, usually have no clue". Ollie from stalker wbesite said that.

Just a note: GaAS T/R modules from Russia have been in production since mid 2000's used for communication systems and military use for ground based comm systems and radar. Their major issue since then till N036 has been the cooling. Hence why MiG-35 first Zhuk A only had some 600 modules in it. They been producing GaN modules as far back as about 2013. There was always talk about which one they would use. Early N036 use GaAS modules, so far there are about 6 - 7 flying prototypes and a few ground ones of it. We will see what exactly they use when the first serial batch come out.

Test & Evaluation Combat Squadron is set up: https://iz.ru/708254/ilia-kramnik/shkola-dlia-istrebitelia

They still hope the Indians will order them.

miketheterrible wrote:Nice wall of text but no substance.

Burden of proof. Once we see the J-20 for what it has, that's great. Same with the "Aesa" J-10's.

No one believes it because of the fact China not only has little experience in it, it's also fact of them buying up tech from outside. It's like the engines used on the J-20.

But have fun whining about numbers of Su-57. And keep up with your opinions, cause really man, no one cares what you think MoD should do.  I seem to recall a quote that I saw online "those who think or say what Russian government should do, usually have no clue". Ollie from stalker wbesite said that.

What do you mean by the "once we see the J-20 for what it has"? You mean WW3? You could say that about any weapon system. "No one believes it." You have no idea what you're talking about. That is acknowledged by every PLA watcher. It has numerous numerous sources, most of which happen to be in Chinese. And I happen to trust those two more than some China-doubting Russia ***** (EDIT: that's censored? OK Lol, whatever) fanboy, sorry. I repeat myself, but this is the tl;dr version: The radar has both an official designation and a quite exact estimate of its T/R count. That's the best proof you can possibly get on anything Chinese militay related. It's undeniable: J-10C, J-16 and J-20 have AESA-radars. That's common knowledge at this point, if you actually follow the Chinese military and know anything about it.  

Chinese didn't have any "experience" with modern warships either mere 15 years ago. Now they're building atleast 4 type 055 cruiser simultaneously. 10-15 years ago they had 0 supercomputers in top 500, today they have more than the US. They didn't have "experience" because they were a third world country, today they are the world's largest economy in PPP. Those are just few examples, but radar technology is not an exception.

Yeah, as it is always with this forum. Everything is fine, Russia *****. Maybe the MoD isn't happy with the situation either? Because if those predictions are true, they certainly aren't. They didn't plan for this to happen. It's not some genius chess move or something. They have limited amount of resources at their disposal.

But don't worry, I'm done with this topic for now. For real.

EDIT: As promised, I won't add another post on this. As I've said numerous times: the standards of transparency are totally different for the Chinese military. That's the best we can get, and in this case it should be more than enough. You can read PLA military forums (sinodefence, defence.pk...) or learn Chinese. I quote PLA Real Talk: "The primary radar of J-20 will virtually be guaranteed to be a X band AESA radar. The X band features characteristics perfectly suited for a fighter aircraft, and the Chinese radar industry has produced many domestic AESAs in recent years." As well as the Eastern Arsenal publication. Both of which certainly are reliable on matters like these, and I just realized that the latter even has some images of those Chinese AESA radars (I linked the article earlier). But of course, I'm sure you will keep believing in your narrative. Fine, we can agree to disagree. The end.

If it's common knowledge, then you should have no problem providing plenty of photos and videos of it. Besides an experimental and words of others
Thanks.

Kimppis wrote:First of all, shouldn't the Su-57 replace older planes. Russia doesn't have enough resources to train pilots now? They didn't realize any of that earlier and plan accordingly? As well, only some weeks or months ago you were still predicting around 60 would be ordered by around 2025, right? But now, all of a sudden, everything is very different?

Yeah, I remember those production numbers for Su-35 and Su-34, but that was before 2012. So are we returning to the 90s now? This is 2018, there's just no excuse. It's clear they didn't want this, they didn't plan for this. Originally they very publicly announced a plan for around 60 Su-57s by 2020. You don't test the first protype in 2010, while starting the production properly 15 or 20 years later and act like everything is OK.

So is the situation like this... They are simply unable to produce next generation equipment in numbers. This would also finally explain why Russian military procurement was going surprisingly well, despite it being quite behind in many technological indicators, like top 500 supercomputers, industrial robots, patents, etc. They can surely churn out upgraded Soviet designs, but when it comes to stuff like Su-57, Armata and potentially S-500, there are huge delays, nothing happens. And Ill admit right away that this is just me speculating, Im not saying any of that is exactly true and I don't want it to be, but right it doesn't look too good.  

Of course certain people exaggerate the importance of stealth, but if its's so useless, then why design Su-57 at all. Not to mention other countries and their projects.  

Weak, weak, weak. Fanboys and spin doctors (and I'm not talking about any particular posters here or anything like that) will just keep repeating how this another sign of Russian strength and how this doesn't matter, or whatever. I'd love to as well, to be perfectly honest, but I can't. Maybe it sounds like I'm overreacting or something, but I don't care.

It's also probably true that those planes won't actually be needed anytime soon, it's not like WW3 is going to start, but it just shows... weakness. A word I dont want to associate with Russia. Uncle Sam and China don't respect it one bit and neither do I. It indicates that there are considerable issues with Russian economy, industry and technology. On a scale that I didn't believe, and didn't want to believe in, earlier (OK, that sounds kind of dramatic, so kvs and other shouldn't take it too seriously). And of course none of that is actually 100% confirmed, so... there's still hope.

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My current mood is indeed quite pessimistic, so I might as well add some other predictions

- Economic growth will not reach 3%

- Some of the earlier estimates on Armata production (South Front, etc.) are indeed accurate, and no more than 50 T-14s will be produced annually, at most, maybe less. And that is while Russia "prioritizes" Ground Forces...

- S-500 wont be ready anytime soon, the Western so-called experts are actually correct. I'm talking about mid-20s

- Nothing massive, but additional delays with heavier drones as well

- Recent estimates on Gorshkov production are accurate too... So 2 operational Gorshkovs by 2020, 4 by 2023 and 6 maybe by 2027

- No additional mid-sized Frigate orders until the late 20s. The remaining 2 or 3 of Grigorovich-class ships already ordered will indeed be sold to India, because I don't think those reports have been fully debunked yet

- Small delays even with Yasens, new orders come in slow... Maybe 10 new SSNs by around 2030. They somehow need additional 10 quickly to replace the remaining older ones after that

- Lider will remain a paper project past 2030 (sorry, Eehnie, lol). Something will be ready by the mid-30s

- Delays with helicopter carriers, etc. Maybe 1 operational in 2030. Let's not even talk about any bigger projects

That's my "blackpill timeline" (gotta mention this on Karlin's comments lol). And the worst thing is that in many it doesn't look so unlikely anymore. Sorry. I will also repeat once more that I don't want any of it to be true.

Only remember 2015:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2693130
According to a source from Kommersant in the military department, the GPO-2020 provided for the purchase of 52 T-50. "We even wrote a schedule of deliveries," Kommersant source said. "In the period 2016-2018, the Russian Air Force was to receive eight fighters per year, and in 2019-2020 - already 14 aircraft of this type." These plans were feasible, he believes, if there were no economic difficulties that arose in the country: "There is an understanding that, first of all, we will sign a contract for the T-50 squadron (12 units - Kommersant). they are still necessary and how much we can afford. " The UAC did not comment on this information

THe SAP 2020 was modified from 52 to 12 , and it seems this is the number to order now
The expected "52" in 5 years was supossed by some media/people for next SAP 2025 (supossed , not announced)
Later the SAP was modificated until 2027.and that affected all the programs, not just the Su-57.
There was quite crisis and inflation in Russia since 2015 and also the oil fell a lot 2-3 years ago, so the defense budget for purchases was cut in an important part (30% ??)

When someone talks about "buying airplanes" like the one who buys bananas, it's better to stop reading, it's not serious
We have to consider all the factors.

First, Putin says clearly about military procurement: first replace , later , slow growth
In the first part, Su-35 and Su-30 was chosen for replace soviet airplanes
Some people says the that the pace of purchases is low or expect more planes each year. I said here many times that a squadron (approximately) a year was enough to replace the Soviet models not modernized in 2020 or little more, and all the other flankes in 2025 or a little more, seems that they have adjusted it for 2027

To produce a third figther while Su-35 and Su-30 are producing, does not sound very reasonable, but has been announced many times and all people beleive in that.
However it is clear Su-57 is still green. To produce more with the program unfinished has not sense , and Russia is not in a hurry now, if you compare the situation of the Air Force with 2012, it is clearly much better
In 2020 or little more, about all soviet fighters will be replaced or modernized, as initially was planned in SAP 2011-2020

Also people usually think only over airplanes , but forgets who is piloting them: forming a pilot, an officer, is a 5-year career in a university or military academy. It is not a matter of money or resources.
Since you make the decision to train more pilots to expand the Air Force until you have novice pilots, spend at least 5 years and some more to acquire experience.
The military academies were reformed several years ago and the fruits will be seen from 2020
Russia has a problema with the age of pilots and you can not go to an employment office to hire someone to pilot a combat plane

The Su-57 does noy replace to any airplane and will be based in closed bases that need overhaul
Some airbases (Kursk, Besovets, Astrakhan) have been overhauled, other are next to conclude the repairs (Chkalovsk, Vorónezh...) but for the momento there are not notice about other bases that could receive Su-57 , like the closed in 2009 (Dorokhovo, Loneynodye Pole, etc...). so RuAF does not expect to have new regiment of Su-57 in next 2-3-4 years

Leaving aside the specific technical problems, of which we do not have data enough as it is logical, what is clear that a totally new plane must give problems, as happened with the F-22 and the F-35 and the Russians does not seem that have a lot of faith in "stealth", they are not going to make the mistake of making a large scale something yet not finished. The flankers have been a safe bet.

you're in a great hurry with the S-500
The S-400 is still being received and by 2020 half of the AA missiles will be S-400. Is it really necessary in S-500 in 2020? Can not wait for 2025? Syria has just shot down an F-16 with an S-150 or S-200
Russia does not need to have 4 fleets either. the Baltic and the Black are lagoons.

The expenditure on armaments must be reasonable. Russia has many problems of poverty, demographics, etc ...

AMCXXL wrote:

Kimppis wrote:First of all, shouldn't the Su-57 replace older planes. Russia doesn't have enough resources to train pilots now? They didn't realize any of that earlier and plan accordingly? As well, only some weeks or months ago you were still predicting around 60 would be ordered by around 2025, right? But now, all of a sudden, everything is very different?

Yeah, I remember those production numbers for Su-35 and Su-34, but that was before 2012. So are we returning to the 90s now? This is 2018, there's just no excuse. It's clear they didn't want this, they didn't plan for this. Originally they very publicly announced a plan for around 60 Su-57s by 2020. You don't test the first protype in 2010, while starting the production properly 15 or 20 years later and act like everything is OK.

So is the situation like this... They are simply unable to produce next generation equipment in numbers. This would also finally explain why Russian military procurement was going surprisingly well, despite it being quite behind in many technological indicators, like top 500 supercomputers, industrial robots, patents, etc. They can surely churn out upgraded Soviet designs, but when it comes to stuff like Su-57, Armata and potentially S-500, there are huge delays, nothing happens. And Ill admit right away that this is just me speculating, Im not saying any of that is exactly true and I don't want it to be, but right it doesn't look too good.  

Of course certain people exaggerate the importance of stealth, but if its's so useless, then why design Su-57 at all. Not to mention other countries and their projects.  

Weak, weak, weak. Fanboys and spin doctors (and I'm not talking about any particular posters here or anything like that) will just keep repeating how this another sign of Russian strength and how this doesn't matter, or whatever. I'd love to as well, to be perfectly honest, but I can't. Maybe it sounds like I'm overreacting or something, but I don't care.

It's also probably true that those planes won't actually be needed anytime soon, it's not like WW3 is going to start, but it just shows... weakness. A word I dont want to associate with Russia. Uncle Sam and China don't respect it one bit and neither do I. It indicates that there are considerable issues with Russian economy, industry and technology. On a scale that I didn't believe, and didn't want to believe in, earlier (OK, that sounds kind of dramatic, so kvs and other shouldn't take it too seriously). And of course none of that is actually 100% confirmed, so... there's still hope.

_______________________________________________________________________________


My current mood is indeed quite pessimistic, so I might as well add some other predictions

- Economic growth will not reach 3%

- Some of the earlier estimates on Armata production (South Front, etc.) are indeed accurate, and no more than 50 T-14s will be produced annually, at most, maybe less. And that is while Russia "prioritizes" Ground Forces...

- S-500 wont be ready anytime soon, the Western so-called experts are actually correct. I'm talking about mid-20s

- Nothing massive, but additional delays with heavier drones as well

- Recent estimates on Gorshkov production are accurate too... So 2 operational Gorshkovs by 2020, 4 by 2023 and 6 maybe by 2027

- No additional mid-sized Frigate orders until the late 20s. The remaining 2 or 3 of Grigorovich-class ships already ordered will indeed be sold to India, because I don't think those reports have been fully debunked yet

- Small delays even with Yasens, new orders come in slow... Maybe 10 new SSNs by around 2030. They somehow need additional 10 quickly to replace the remaining older ones after that

- Lider will remain a paper project past 2030 (sorry, Eehnie, lol). Something will be ready by the mid-30s

- Delays with helicopter carriers, etc. Maybe 1 operational in 2030. Let's not even talk about any bigger projects

That's my "blackpill timeline" (gotta mention this on Karlin's comments lol). And the worst thing is that in many it doesn't look so unlikely anymore. Sorry. I will also repeat once more that I don't want any of it to be true.

Only remember 2015:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2693130
According to a source from Kommersant in the military department, the GPO-2020 provided for the purchase of 52 T-50. "We even wrote a schedule of deliveries," Kommersant source said. "In the period 2016-2018, the Russian Air Force was to receive eight fighters per year, and in 2019-2020 - already 14 aircraft of this type." These plans were feasible, he believes, if there were no economic difficulties that arose in the country: "There is an understanding that, first of all, we will sign a contract for the T-50 squadron (12 units - Kommersant). they are still necessary and how much we can afford. " The UAC did not comment on this information

THe SAP 2020 was modified from 52 to 12 , and it seems this is the number to order now
The expected "52" in 5 years was supossed by some media/people for next SAP 2025 (supossed , not announced)
Later the SAP was modificated until 2027.and that affected all the programs, not just the Su-57.
There was quite crisis and inflation in Russia since 2015 and also the oil fell a lot 2-3 years ago, so the defense budget for purchases was cut in an important part (30% ??)

When someone talks about "buying airplanes" like the one who buys bananas, it's better to stop reading, it's not serious
We have to consider all the factors.

First, Putin says clearly about military procurement: first replace , later , slow growth
In the first part, Su-35 and Su-30 was chosen for replace soviet airplanes
Some people says the that the pace of purchases is low or expect more planes each year. I said here many times that a squadron (approximately) a year was enough to replace the Soviet models not modernized in 2020 or little more, and all the other flankes in 2025 or a little more, seems that they have adjusted it for 2027

To produce a third figther while Su-35 and Su-30 are producing, does not sound very reasonable, but has been announced many times and all people beleive in that.
However it is clear Su-57 is still green. To produce more with the program unfinished has not sense , and Russia is not in a hurry now, if you compare the situation of the Air Force with 2012, it is clearly much better
In 2020 or little more, about all soviet fighters will be replaced or modernized, as initially was planned in SAP 2011-2020

Also people usually think only over airplanes , but forgets who is piloting them: forming a pilot, an officer, is a 5-year career in a university or military academy. It is not a matter of money or resources.
Since you make the decision to train more pilots to expand the Air Force until you have novice pilots, spend at least 5 years and some more to acquire experience.
The military academies were reformed several years ago and the fruits will be seen from 2020
Russia has a problema with the age of pilots and you can not go to an employment office to hire someone to pilot a combat plane

The Su-57 does noy replace to any airplane and will be based in closed bases that need overhaul
Some airbases (Kursk, Besovets, Astrakhan) have been overhauled, other are next to conclude the repairs (Chkalovsk, Vorónezh...) but for the momento there are not notice about other bases that could receive Su-57 , like the closed in 2009 (Dorokhovo, Loneynodye Pole, etc...). so RuAF does not expect to have new regiment of Su-57 in next 2-3-4 years

Leaving aside the specific technical problems, of which we do not have data enough as it is logical, what is clear that a totally new plane must give problems, as happened with the F-22 and the F-35 and the Russians does not seem that have a lot of faith in "stealth", they are not going to make the mistake of making a large scale something yet not finished. The flankers have been a safe bet.

you're in a great hurry with the S-500
The S-400 is still being received and by 2020 half of the AA missiles will be S-400. Is it really necessary in S-500 in 2020? Can not wait for 2025? Syria has just shot down an F-16 with an S-150 or S-200
Russia does not need to have 4 fleets either. the Baltic and the Black are lagoons.

The expenditure on armaments must be reasonable. Russia has many problems of poverty, demographics, etc ...

Of the SAP2020, nothing was cut. The 24T Rubles was still in place.

Su-57 is to replace the flanker lines and possibly fulcrum lines as well, minus the Su-34 currently.

S-500 is strictly a mobile anti ICBM systems more so than a general purpose long range anti air system. We have no idea about S-500 currently besides some photos of supposed launchers.

Currently, it seems more likely Russia wants more modern but already in full production mode of fighter jets now than waiting on Su-57. So they increased demand for Su-30 and Su-35 while reduced Su-57 for now. I imagine by 2027 things may be much different.

miketheterrible wrote:http://tass.com/defense/990172

First batch in 2019 for Su-57 for RuAF.

Will the first batch receive new engines?

Azi wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:http://tass.com/defense/990172

First batch in 2019 for Su-57 for RuAF.

Will the first batch receive new engines?

No.

miketheterrible wrote:

Azi wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:http://tass.com/defense/990172

First batch in 2019 for Su-57 for RuAF.

Will the first batch receive new engines?

No.

How do you know? I am not saying it will happen, but it is not impossible, as there aren't big structural modifications to change from one engine to another, just look how the second prototype, built in 2010, became the first one to have an izdelye 30 engine.

Svyatoslavich wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Azi wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:http://tass.com/defense/990172

First batch in 2019 for Su-57 for RuAF.

Will the first batch receive new engines?

No.

How do you know? I am not saying it will happen, but it is not impossible, as there aren't big structural modifications to change  from one engine to another, just look how the second prototype, built in 2010, became the first one to have an izdelye 30 engine.

I'm not 100% certain but the engines we're only tested recently for it. It would be rather very rushed if they have it in full production ready status now. Usually they take their sweet time in this stuff.

Plus I recall reading somewhere that first batch will be without new engines. Which isn't a real problem anyway.

We still have not seen the final variant of the engine for the PAK-FA. So it is obvious that the first batches will not have them
and the plans never called for them to be deployed concurrently. The engines require too much tech advancement (e.g. composites)
for them to follow a similar schedule. We should be happy if they are deployed in 2025.