PAK-FA, T-50: News #4

Everyone is rushing something that doesn't need to be rushed.

F-35 was rushed, that's obvious with all it's problems. This is something Russia is trying to prevent by being slow at it. It's pretty much finished besides getting serial production ready of the engines, plus we don't know of the radar if they will be ready using it's current T/R modules, or if they will use their GaN modules.

J-20 is nice and all, but not as much of a fifth gen jet you would think. Older, less capable engines, PESA radar, etc. I mean in theory, Russia could have taken Su-35 and made a whole new stealthy frame and introduced that instead. And maybe have used Zhuk radar but larger and more T/R modules and then it would have came out earlier. But probably not in the performance they were looking for.

Su-35 and it's sensor structure is enough for now and can handle F-35's. Su-35 may be more inclined to use third based structures (ground and awacs) to detect LO planes and then use it's onboard systems like IRST to track it, or use it's sensors to pick up enemy radar trying to track it.

Who knows. Maybe Su-57 may not actually come out, other than token numbers. They may opt for using the technology they produced from it to apply to existing jet technology, and then produce something even newer. Or it can be like Su-35 or Su-30. Been out for a very long time (years) but didn't start getting orders till now.

We dont know. A lot is pure speculation. Sale of F-35s are mostly speculation and media sensation as well. J-20 has "entered service" how many times now? 4? So it begs the question if it really has or it's just media hype to push others in their developments.

That so much investment has gone into the Su-57 implies that it will be purchased in large numbers in the coming years.
All this talk about sample amounts is simply non sequitur drivel. PAK-FA is not some boutique side show, it is supposed
to advance the state of Russian fighter jets. This implies that by 2030 most Russian attack jets will be Su-57s. It
is likely that production will stop on all the other Su fighter variants (bomber variants are another story). I am not sure if
Mig will get to make a reduced size 5th gen jet or whether it will be focused on the Mig-41.

Well, first of all, J-20 certainly has an AESA-radar, and it's not the only Chinese fighter with one. J-10Cs and J-16 also have AESAs. The Chinese are very secretive, but there have been reports that J-20 could also have more T/R modules than F-22, partially because J-20 is slightly larger.

It's true but that the engines are a weakness, but they have already tested Chinese engines on J-20 (those engines are not 5th gen, that's true), and they'll probably start testing their 5th generation engine in a few years time, so progress is being made.

Chinese English-language media's military reporting is kind of limited, but it seems that the first serial planes entered service a year or two ago, sort of like an IOC in the US, and now it simply reached FOC, or something like that, nothing else to it. Of course there are maybe only 10-20 (not including prototypes, obviously) J-20s in service, so the numbers are still low.  

All of that was however, inevitable, because Chinese resources are so massive, so 1:1 comparisons with Russia are pointless for numerous reasons, and that wasn't my point. But I just find those Su-57 "estimates" really weird. The program should indeed almost be finished, and as kvs said, that investment doesn't make any sense if they're not going to order atleast a few hundred planes. And AFAIK, that was the plan from the beginning, although it was of course always going to take decades. So maybe "most attack jets" by 2030 is an exaggeration, but 100 of them by 2030 shouldn't be. That, or slightly more, is what AMCXXL predicted earlier as well, so I wonder what his views are at the moment.

MiG-41 sounds kind of problematic to me. I guess Russia needs one, how many planes are they going to get? 200 at most, probably less (they're going to upgrade maybe 150 MiG-31s in total), and export potential for an interceptor is very limited. So if they have massive problems getting Su-57 into production, what hope do they have with MiG-41? Russia needs to start ordering them in numbers by the early 30s. Maybe that's not the case, but if they can't start producing around 10 Su-57s annually from the early 20s, then what the hell is going on?

PapaDragon wrote:
Su-57 is something that will become equivalent of Su-27: not just a fighter jet but also a platform on which various different platforms will be developed for decades to come.

Reason why they are not in the hurry is because unlike period before development started, they now know that concept of stealth is not really as game changing as everyone assumed.

They nailed design properly once before with Su-27 and it has been paying off in spades ever since, they want to get the same payoff with Su-57.

An let's not forget the fact that as they use airforce more and more they are coming to realize that platforms they have now (Su-30/34/35) are more than up for the task.

They also need to develop weapons that can fit in the bay. If it is used with external weapons it became an expensive Su-35.

Stealth is good but not game changer against countries equiped with ICBM. It's good to implement stealth in the best weapons you have. They first made their missiles stealth (Kalibr and Kh-101). It is also a bonus when you sell the product.

Nah, producing only a few dozen in 15 years time (from the first prototype) is weakness, if that ends up happening (and I'm not saying it will, but it all sounds worrying), it means something is wrong with the project, simple as that. Again: I'm not saying anything is confirmed at this point, but still...

Kimppis wrote:Nah, producing only a few dozen in 15 years time (from the first prototype) is weakness, if that ends up happening (and I'm not saying it will, but it all sounds worrying), it means something is wrong with the project, simple as that. Again: I'm not saying anything is confirmed at this point, but still...

Money is an issue for every military. They are producing su-35 because they knew they won't be able to produce so much su-57. Even su-35 is expensive and they have su-30.

The export sells will be also lower than for previous generation of fighters. That's true for everyone. Just wait for official talks about f-35 by european countries and you will see that they will more look at f-16 upgrades than buying few f-35.

Even US navy is looking at f18 upgrades in case of f-35 too high prices.

Kimppis wrote:Nah, producing only a few dozen in 15 years time (from the first prototype) is weakness, if that ends up happening (and I'm not saying it will, but it all sounds worrying), it means something is wrong with the project, simple as that. Again: I'm not saying anything is confirmed at this point, but still...

You're sounding like a poster over at National Interest... FFS, this is all pessimistic speculation based on very limited public domain info. The RuAF isn't going to show its cards, and Sukhoi isn't going to reveal what is really being discussed with the gov. Russia is, for all intents and purposes, in a new Cold War 2.0 of Murican Neo-Con/Deep State war criminal making, and they are not about to broadcast their intentions to the fucking enemy.

People need to understand that salient central fact.

PapaDragon wrote:
Su-57 is something that will become equivalent of Su-27: not just a fighter jet but also a platform on which various different platforms will be developed for decades to come.

Reason why they are not in the hurry is because unlike period before development started, they now know that concept of stealth is not really as game changing as everyone assumed.

They nailed design properly once before with Su-27 and it has been paying off in spades ever since, they want to get the same payoff with Su-57.

An let's not forget the fact that as they use airforce more and more they are coming to realize that platforms they have now (Su-30/34/35) are more than up for the task.

+1

I still remember the self-serving bleating about how Cold War USSR couldn't possibly build an air superiority fighter to rival the Holy F-15 uber-destroyer of the Exceptional Ones. It was simply beyond the primitive minds of the Slav peasants... They wouldn't be able to build anything other than a evolutionary development of a MiG-23 or another agricultural flying engine with wings like a Mig-21 or Su-17...

Well the smug bastards across the Atlantic still don't want to accept that the Su-27 is an inherently superior design to the F-15, so why should we be surprised if these fuckers still sneer at the Su-57 and treat the program in their usual condescending manner?

Big_Gazza wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Su-57 is something that will become equivalent of Su-27: not just a fighter jet but also a platform on which various different platforms will be developed for decades to come.

Reason why they are not in the hurry is because unlike period before development started, they now know that concept of stealth is not really as game changing as everyone assumed.

They nailed design properly once before with Su-27 and it has been paying off in spades ever since, they want to get the same payoff with Su-57.

An let's not forget the fact that as they use airforce more and more they are coming to realize that platforms they have now (Su-30/34/35) are more than up for the task.

+1

I still remember the self-serving bleating about how Cold War USSR couldn't possibly build an air superiority fighter to rival the Holy F-15 uber-destroyer of the Exceptional Ones.  It was simply beyond the primitive minds of the Slav peasants...   They wouldn't be able to build anything other than a evolutionary development of a MiG-23 or another agricultural flying engine with wings like a Mig-21 or Su-17...

Well the smug bastards across the Atlantic still don't want to accept that the Su-27 is an inherently superior design to the F-15, so why should we be surprised if these fuckers still sneer at the Su-57 and treat the program in their usual condescending manner?

Well, it's true for everyone. European fighters are just as good as soviet ones for americans. They are educated to think they are the best.

You can't change that, it's in their blood to be stupid. Most of them beleive that humans are born 2018 years ago with jesus christ and beleivz the proof of prehistorical humans ...

Sorry but the timetibe published about Su-57 production seems me wrongly interpreted:
Timetable of the first batch has nothing wrong: this years they would end flight test , freeze design and begin the First Serial production i.e a small batch of serially produced planes , just to test the functionality of the assembly line and the adherence of the production concern i.e. in this case Knaapo to the terms of contract like they do for every new design.
After this they would begin the full scale production of the rest of the contracted  batch.
So they will produce them in the last month of the 2018 and deliver them to air force in 2019, all regular there.
They add up that in the framework of 2018-2027 state acquisition program they  would sign another contract for the production of a batch of second stage Su-57 with the objekt 30 as a perspective engine, good news there surely.
Where the article has gone COMPLETELY WRONG it is in the last part.
They surely said that the contract for the large scale production of the definitive model (i.e. with a fully developed, not just perspective second stage engine)would be instead be signed in the framework of the successive state acquisition programme, so that BIG IDIOT though 2028-2037!


Ahem, no one there remember how State Acquisition Programmes just OVERLAP one with another?

Su-30SM, Su-34 and Su-35 orders make part of the 2011-2020 program, MiG-35 and both provisional Su-57 series would be signed in the 2018-2027 and the contract for the definitive model would make part of in the 2021-2030 one, simple as that!

So they were saying that they are in an hurry to introduce it, at the point of contracting a second batch with interim second stage engines without even wait a couple of year for the end of their own development and you discuss about the exact contrary for a full page?

Big_Gazza, I know, sorry about that. I hope you're right. And I never doubted the actual capabilities of the Su-57, just the production numbers.

Isos, it still seems likely that most Western countries will eventually order F-35s, and the US fighter production capabilities are massive. Those countries are not even fully independent, especially when it comes to their "national" security, so if Uncle Sam wants something, they'll do it (atleast some of them, to certain extent, not a huge conspiracy theory there). So maybe the numbers will be somewhat lower than they predicted earlier, but by the mid-20s many/most of those countries will start getting F-35s, which is not good, if I'm perfectly honest, despite all the issues with the project and with the plane itself.

Marcellogo, I think I mostly understand what you're saying, but this is still very confusing. My pessimism was largely based on the fact that Borisov himself said (according to the article anyway, but the translation is probably questionable too) that they're only going to order 2 (!!) planes next year, so if that end up being true, it's almost certain they won't even have 12 of them by the end of 2020, which would be... weird. And I thought the reason for the overlap was the unstable international and economic situation after 2014? So it's quite likely it won't happen again during the current/next SAP. But I guess not?

I'd really like to know what AMCXLL thinks about this.

Kimppis wrote:Big_Gazza, I know, sorry about that. I hope you're right. And I never doubted the actual capabilities of the Su-57, just the production numbers.

Isos, it still seems likely that most Western countries will eventually order F-35s, and the US fighter production capabilities are massive. Those countries are not even fully independent, especially when it comes to their "national" security, so if Uncle Sam wants something, they'll do it (atleast some of them, to certain extent, not a huge conspiracy theory there). So maybe the numbers will be somewhat lower than they predicted earlier, but by the mid-20s many/most of those countries will start getting F-35s, which is not good, if I'm perfectly honest, despite all the issues with the project and with the plane itself.

Marcellogo, I think I mostly understand what you're saying, but this is still very confusing. My pessimism was largely based on the fact that Borisov himself said (according to the article anyway, but the translation is probably questionable too) that they're only going to order 2 (!!) planes next year, so if that end up being true, it's almost certain they won't even have 12 of them by the end of 2020, which would be... weird. And I thought the reason for the overlap was the unstable international and economic situation after 2014? So it's quite likely it won't happen again during the current/next SAP. But I guess not?

I'd really like to know what AMCXLL thinks about this.

Kimppis, again!
Those two planes are the so called "first serial" i.e. the series zero:all Soviet/Russian planes serial production begin with a proof of concept of a small batch, 2 to 4 usually, produced in collaboration between the NPO (formerly called Design Bureau OKB) in this case the Sukhoi one and the Production Concern, in this case the KnAAPO in order to set up assembly line, optimize production process and check the quality of the final product.
And let me correct you, they would not be ordered  but they will be delivered  to the Armed Force in 2019, contract is already signed for all 12 ones with 117S engine.
Director of the KnAAPO has said that (let's repeat for the n time) that in the framework of the State Armament 2018-2027 Programme he is confident to get also the signing of a contract for a second batch of 12-15 planes with a perspective Objekt 30 engine while the contracts for the mass production of the planes with the definitive engine would be signed in the successive Armament Program i.e. the one of 2021-2030 not 2028-2037!

So they would have two first serial produced in 2018-2019 and consigned in 2019, after it they will proceed with the serial production of the remaining 10, something they can do easily in one year, immediately after it there will be the production of 12-15 with an interim objekt 30 engine(and this mean that they expect to produce them before of the stated end of the complete development of the engine itself i.e. 2021).
Conversely contract for the planes with the definitive engines cannot be signed before they have completed the said development and so they would instead fall under the 2021-2030 time frame.
Remember , it's the director of the Aircraft Production Association talking here not a member of Sukhoi's NPO/OKB, neither a representative of the Armed Force here, so he reason in the term of SIGN CONTRACT- MAKE FIRST SERIAL-START PRODUCTION-DELIVER THING-GET MONEY AND BONUS-SIGN A CONTRACT FOR THE NEXT BATCH-RINSE AND REPEAT while what happen before the signing and after the deliver is quite literally, not a concern of him and his Production Concern.

When fireworks go off, planes on paper don't fly. This plane is due.

Kimppis wrote:Big_Gazza, I know, sorry about that. I hope you're right. And I never doubted the actual capabilities of the Su-57, just the production numbers.

Isos, it still seems likely that most Western countries will eventually order F-35s, and the US fighter production capabilities are massive. Those countries are not even fully independent, especially when it comes to their "national" security, so if Uncle Sam wants something, they'll do it (atleast some of them, to certain extent, not a huge conspiracy theory there). So maybe the numbers will be somewhat lower than they predicted earlier, but by the mid-20s many/most of those countries will start getting F-35s, which is not good, if I'm perfectly honest, despite all the issues with the project and with the plane itself.

Marcellogo, I think I mostly understand what you're saying, but this is still very confusing. My pessimism was largely based on the fact that Borisov himself said (according to the article anyway, but the translation is probably questionable too) that they're only going to order 2 (!!) planes next year, so if that end up being true, it's almost certain they won't even have 12 of them by the end of 2020, which would be... weird. And I thought the reason for the overlap was the unstable international and economic situation after 2014? So it's quite likely it won't happen again during the current/next SAP. But I guess not?

I'd really like to know what AMCXLL thinks about this.

Su-57 Project need more time and Russia doesn´t need a big ammount of airplanes rigth now.

Russia is now producing Su-35S and Su-30SM. It is not reasonable to produce more types of aircrafts at the same time.

In 2013 the people thougth thet Su-30 and Su-35 would be produced until 2020 or so, and after that the production would be of Su-57
However the Su-57 have been delayed several times because need more time and also the production of Su-35 and Su-30 is slower than initially thought (Ucraine crisis, China contract of Su-35, etc...)
The production of Su-35 sould take at least 15 years and after that , start the large scale prodcution of Su-57 , that about 2028 or 2030 should be updated to Su-57M. Then is not a good odea to produce too many Su-57 now
The first bath of 12 (2 2019 , 2 2020, 4 2021 , 4 2022) is probably for Akhtunisnk and Lípetsk. After that one or two squadrons for the first combat unit until 2027. I do not see more production while Su.35 is prducing.

Also the Su-35 is a generation 4++ , this means about a 5th generation without "stealth" that really is a big fraud of USA industry. (Remenber F-117)
Russians really does not beleive in "stealth" . Flanker "the state of the art" of figthetrs , is good enough and was tested for more of 30 years.
However the 5th generation is necesary as intermediate step for the future 6th generation (if this happens), but the Project started from zero and it is not easy for Russia as is not the USSR

USA made the big mistake of playing everything to one card with the "stealth" and it backfired with F-22 (only 190 of 750 projected) and F-35:a big shit of plane with a lot of problems and price of luxury whore.
I sincerely hope that my country does not make the mistake of buying any F-35, that I should pay with my taxes


Also Russia has a big matter , more important that to produce airplanes
There are not pilots enough for more airplanes rigth now
If you see some videos, the pilots of Su-24 or MiG-31 are old and fat. The most are near to retire of airforce. There are very few young pilots
Bondarev changed the instruction system several years ago and in the next years should come a new generation of young pilots for the new aircratfs , but this takes a long time. 5 years of academy for the instruction of a raw pilot and some more for get a good pilot.

Well, a su-35 with 6 stealth cruise missiles will be better than a stealth su-57 with 2 cruise missiles limited by weapon bay. If they don't develop it correctly it will be just spending money for nothing.

Isos wrote:Well, a su-35 with 6 stealth cruise missiles will be better than a stealth su-57 with 2 cruise missiles limited by weapon bay. If they don't develop it correctly it will be just spending money for nothing.

But the su-57 would use the hardpoints outside of the weapon bay to conduct air to ground missions...

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You need to be able to give mid course correction. Nato awacs have also jamming suite so a yak 130 won't be enough ... i mean with a irbis or byelka you are sure to use the best you have for an important target. Yak 130 are not able to use r 37 btw

Why do you need mid course correction?

The missile will be able to detect the emissions from the Awacs and change its course itself all passively.

What would NATO be jamming if a Yak-130 carrying two or four R-37Ms and took off and climbed as high as it could fly and then launched one or two R-37M missiles toward the emitting AWACS aircraft?

The Yak-130 could easily be adapted to simply carry R-37M missiles.

During its first test the MiG-31M didn't even have its own radar... it used data from an Su-30 flying closer to the target to provide target data and course corrections.... with an emitting target like an AWACs aircraft you don't need your own 400km range radar...

This thread is infested with the same Chicken Little BS as the Russia warship threads:

1) Russia takes billions of years to build a single unit
2) Russia will never build any number of any significance
3) Russian tech is inferior to NATO wunderwaffe

To all you morons who think media or internet sources will have inside channels running through the Russian government and MOD,
you need to grow brains. Don't post speculation by some "source" as verified fact. That is, stop spreading the intellectually
insulting BS.

If doing the above makes you feel good, then bugger off from this forum to a warm and comfy NATO bootlick forum and wank yourselves
there.

PS. Less than two years ago we had hysterical articles being posted in the Russia section how Russia was going to eat through all
of its reserves and go bankrupt. This drivel is the same excrement that is being peddled here. Russia is not some ponzi scheme or
a one time deposit at a bank. It has a real and growing economy that generates tax revenue for the Russian government which
can afford procurement.

GarryB wrote:

You need to be able to give mid course correction. Nato awacs have also jamming suite so a yak 130 won't be enough ... i mean with a irbis or byelka you are sure to use the best you have for an important target. Yak 130 are not able to use r 37 btw

Why do you need mid course correction?

The missile will be able to detect the emissions from the Awacs and change its course itself all passively.

What would NATO be jamming if a Yak-130 carrying two or four R-37Ms and took off and climbed as high as it could fly and then launched one or two R-37M missiles toward the emitting AWACS aircraft?

The Yak-130 could easily be adapted to simply carry R-37M missiles.

During its first test the MiG-31M didn't even have its own radar... it used data from an Su-30 flying closer to the target to provide target data and course corrections.... with an emitting target like an AWACs aircraft you don't need your own 400km range radar...

As far as I know, R-37 is active radar homing. So it will need mid-course unless you fire it straight and hope it will get close enough to detect the target when it goes active.

Active radar missiles until now are almost the same as semi active. The fighter needs to send the position of the target to the missile to use it effficiently and only at around 20km it turns on its own radar which is a matter of seconds.

What you are describing is an idea, not the reality. I don't think AWACS use the same frequency as the radar of the R-37 so it can't really use the emmiting signal to guide itself passively. A semi-active version would be just as good if not better because it will oblige the target to jam the frequency it uses and thus it could switch beteen passive and semi active mode. Add an IR seeker with this and it is unjamable.

Iraqi Mirage F1, when they get french jamers, were immune to Iranian phoenix missiles BTW.

They will have more than 100 Su-35 able to lunch it at supersonic speeds. Why use a Yak-130 ? The range by lunching it at 20km in altitude and at mach 1.5 would increase by at least sone tens of km.

The first bath of 12 (2 2019 , 2 2020, 4 2021 , 4 2022) is probably for Akhtunisnk and Lípetsk. After that one or two squadrons for the first combat unit until 2027.

Good lord...

Sorry, but I'm not even going to try to spin that positively... 12 by the end of 2020 was already bad enough.

Those numbers look really exact. Are they really confirmed!?

marcellogo, any comments?

And no, I'm not "happy" about any of this, quite the opposite in fact.

AMCXXL wrote:

Su-57 Project need more time and Russia doesn´t need a big ammount of airplanes rigth now.

Russia is now producing Su-35S and Su-30SM. It is not reasonable to produce more types of aircrafts at the same time.

I would say that Russia, mainly, do not see an imminent risk of a direct confrontation with the USA and NATO.

Judging by the overall rearmament program, and its different numbers and paces, I would say they recognize asymmetrical threats as the most dangerous.

The pace of helicopters' acquisition, infantry modernization, the vast numbers of light and medium armoured platforms developed and purchased show that russian armed forces are hurrying to hone and improve their capabilities against asymmetrical opponents, expecially to fight them in the surrounding regions.

Far more than any possible threats against Russia's own territory, the focus seems to be to have all the capabilities required to fight and defeat any unconventional force threatening some of its southern neighbours.

If looking at the larger picture, in the east China is acting as a buffer against nay actual threat against Russia, in the west Europe is so vulnerable to any retaliation that an actual threat is unlikely.

The far north, the Arctic, is perhaps the only possible area for a conventional confrontation.

Than it comes to the Caucasus, Iran, Syria, even Irak.

In those regions, asymmetrical threats could turn out to be really dangerous, as Syria has clearly demonstrated, and Russia is in the position to act as a backup against those threats.

As it looks, it will be about maybe 24 or more by 2027. Who knows though. For all we know, plan will change as it always does.

Maybe they may integrate technologies from Su-57 to Su-35 (aesa radar, engines) or maybe they will go all out on Su-57.

We don't know, we are all speculating. Getting worked up about it now is pointless till the money is actually spent.

miketheterrible wrote:As it looks, it will be about maybe 24 or more by 2027. Who knows though. For all we know, plan will change as it always does.

Maybe they may integrate technologies from Su-57 to Su-35 (aesa radar, engines) or maybe they will go all out on Su-57.

We don't know, we are all speculating. Getting worked up about it now is pointless till the money is actually spent.

It all depend on how work goes. They achieved to build the first engine sooner than expected and used it. If everything goes well we can expect more Su-57 produced than expected. Su-35 will probably be stoped and replace by Su-57 that's the most logic. Su-30SM will be upgraded to SM1 and will be the fighter used for "everything" just like F-15 in USA while Su-57 will be kept like F-22.

Su-35 is very good but less than Su-57 and more costly than Su-30SM. They will get the last ones already ordered and that's it IMO. They were clearly said to be bought to make pilots get use to 5 generation fighters. If they are upgraded to 57 level, their total cost (procurement+upgrade) will be the same as Su-57 so go for Su-57 instead.

Kimppis wrote:

The first bath of 12 (2 2019 , 2 2020, 4 2021 , 4 2022) is probably for Akhtunisnk and Lípetsk. After that one or two squadrons for the first combat unit until 2027.

Good lord...  

Sorry, but I'm not even going to try to spin that positively... 12 by the end of 2020 was already bad enough.

Those numbers look really exact. Are they really confirmed!?

marcellogo, any comments?

And no, I'm not "happy" about any of this, quite the opposite in fact.

From what source he takes such data?
And for what reason, if the rate would be such they have involved such a big factory like KnAAPO?
4 planes a years you didn't need an assembly line, just a pair of benches.