Syrian War: News #13

Can we shut about who's here a zionist and just agree that they're geopolitical parasites?

Why the hell hasn't the SAA captured Arak yet?

Aleppo and Homs being 100% under SAA control seems to have allowed them to open various fronts.

Qalaat Al Mudiq‏ @QalaatAlMudiq 6h6 hours ago
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Replying to @QalaatAlMudiq
S. #Syria: pro-Regime forces opened a 4th front vs #FSA trying to advance on Bir Qassab & Dakwa fronts, backed by artillery & airstrikes.

And Daraa is definitely going to be captured completely, if sources are correct. That is a place where 'revolution' started.
It's has been 6 years 50/50 control, just like Aleppo. Now it's time for complete recapture of the city. Israel probably wont do anything, and Jordan have closed the border for wounded and stopped paying the salaries for fighters.
Only place where Israel might make some problem is area along Golan, that will be left for end.

That said, SAA should be on one Tabqa-Shaer-Palmyra- around Tanf front in a month or two. Only question is will the Kurds manage to capture Raqqa(IS retreat) or will it become meat grinder like Mosul in next two months.

calm wrote:
Only question is will the Kurds manage to capture Raqqa(IS retreat) or will it become meat grinder like Mosul in next two months.

Which will hopefully be the latter with the RuAF discouraging more leavers by hitting as many who try as possible. Better the SDF/Coalition wipe them out than the SAA. If they do then that might dispel all the rumours that the US is supporting ISIS by letting them escape to fight the SAA.

Unless Daesh is somehow redeployed to SAA fronts, I don't think we will see Raqqa stolen by US-backed Kurds any time soon (unless they switch to SDF uniforms )

Despite the propaganda that want to put Raqqa in the hands of the US, it is necessary to take into account that the following June 6 will be 7 months since the begin of the operation. Only the approach to the city has been 7 months.

JohninMK wrote:

calm wrote:
Only question is will the Kurds manage to capture Raqqa(IS retreat) or will it become meat grinder like Mosul in next two months.

Which will hopefully be the latter with the RuAF discouraging more leavers by hitting as many who try as possible. Better the SDF/Coalition wipe them out than the SAA. If they do then that might dispel all the rumours that the US is supporting ISIS by letting them escape to fight the SAA.

This pretty much. VKS need to make sure that every ISIS clown in Raqqa knows that leaving the city is death sentence and that they have better chances of not dying if they stay put. Fight of surrender, doesn't matter as long as they don't try to make a move for DeZ or Palmyra.

I don't know how exactly well fortified Deir is but I assume that things are stable over there since SAA is still not making a push in that direction. Still it would be wiser​ not to leave anything to chance with something that important.

And right on cue:

One more agreement was reached between #US backed #SDF and #ISIS #ISIS will withdraw from Al Mansoura pocket toward Badia region

#ISIS announced in mosques: They begin to leave from Mansoura & evacution starting at 2 pm Good Luck #RuAF

https://mobile.twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/870393183724765184

I still find it hard to believe in that that IS will flee from Raqqa. Yeah they are retreating constantly. But is was the same during Manbij battle, and they stayed in the city to fight. In the end, Kurds let them retreat toward Jarablus though some corridor. That is the problem with Kurds, they do not intend to fight with IS to death(of IS). They want one part of country and do not care about the rest. Maybe SAA will let some AQ fanatics to Idlib here and there, but sooner or later they will be killed, and it's easier then in urban areas. Same goes for Iraqis, they will not let those IS fanatics outta Mosul for nothing.

calm wrote:I still find it hard to believe in that that IS will flee from Raqqa. Yeah they are retreating constantly. But is was the same during Manbij battle, and they stayed in the city to fight. In the end, Kurds let them retreat toward Jarablus though some corridor. That is the problem with Kurds, they do not intend to fight with IS to death(of IS). They want one part of country and do not care about the rest. Maybe SAA will let some AQ fanatics to Idlib here and there, but sooner or later they will be killed, and it's easier then in urban areas. Same goes for Iraqis, they will not let those IS fanatics outta Mosul for nothing.

Well as long as Deir stays in Syrian hands Kurdish actions are irelevant in the long run.

If ISIS does stay and fight in Raqqa then SAA will have all the time it needs because it will be Mosul redux most likely.

But that is big if. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. This is not the time to take eyes off the ball.

Putin views on Khan Sheikhoun chemical attack of Syria دیدگاه پوتین در حمله شیمیایی خان شيخون


in a interview with France Le Figaro newspaper Putin exposes his views on Khan Sheikhoun chemical attack in Syria

Syrian government had no role in Idlib chemical attack: Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed confidence that the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces had no role in the April chemical attack in Idlib Province, describing the incident as the West’s pretext to continue its pressure against Damascus.
"According to our information, there is no proof that chemical weapons were used by Assad. We are convinced that he did not do it," Putin said in a Tuesday interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro.
The allegation was a way of "explaining to the international community why it was necessary to continue to impose measures to pressure Assad, including militarily," Putin added.
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/05/30/523692/Syria-Russian-chemical-attack--Putin-Assad-Macro-Idlib-France-Khen-Sheykhun

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCSBLpNXx9k

A video for all you all. Russia knows the plan hence the statement and why they refuse to allow iSIS to flee. I am just a propagandist tho!

Roughly 200 terrorists have been killed trying to flee by the Russian Airforce.

Reports are Maskan has been fully encircled by the tiger forces, if so that means they want to kill those guys now and not have to deal with them later, correct choice.

At this point of the war, it is likely that Syria put in use their oldest and weakest arsenals, in order to keep their most capable material for future scenarios with more difficult adversaries.

In the refered to land warfare I expect Syria tries to keep safer and prepared to face more difficult adversaries, their:

SA-22
SS-C-5
SS-26
T-90
TOS-1
BM-30
BMP-3 (?)
SA-19 2S6
SA-11/17
SA-10/12/20/23
2S1
SA-8
SA-6
BM-27
2S3
T-72
SS-C-1
SS-21
SS-C-3
2S4
SS-1 Scud
ZSU-23-4

It means to reduce the use of some weapons (basically the T-72, ZSU-23-4, 2S1 (and the T-90, of course). Today a combination of older heavy warfare with the necessary man-portable weapons maybe enough to defeat the pockets and ISIS, while more modern heavy warfare maybe reserved to the fight in the borders with Turkey, Jordan and Israel.

At this point surely all the types of land heavy warfare which production finnished before 1982, plus 2B9 Vasilek, SA-3, SA-2, SA-5 and ZU-23-2, have been transported to Syria. The last type of heavy warfare which production finnished before 1982, still present today in Russia, would be the AT-T engineering vehicles, that I expect to see also in Syria fast.

In line for supplies to Syria: T-64, AT-T, Iveco LMV (units in the Russian Armed Forces, adapted for combat roles, auxiliary vehicle), (M)T-12, BTR-60 and BMD-1.

In the refered to air warfare I expect Syria tries to keep safer and prepared to face more difficult adversaries, their:

Su-24
MiG-29
Su-17/20/22
MiG-25 (if present still)
MiG-23

It is likely Russia does some supply of aircrafts to keep the Syrian Air Force with some life.

In line for supplies to Syria: Be-12 (to be used like France used the Bréguet Atlantique 2) and L-39 (adapted for combat roles, auxiliary vehicle).

Yep, and here are some maps:





https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/870707311710359558

Massive Syrian Army offensive is about to start this weekend. I'm sure you can guess the location
https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/870778920462888965

SeigSoloyvov wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCSBLpNXx9k
A video for all you all. Russia knows the plan hence the statement and why they refuse to allow iSIS to flee. I am just a propagandist tho!
....

Welcome to the club comrade, there is no party like communist party.

calm wrote:And Daraa is definitely going to be captured completely, if sources are correct. That is a place where 'revolution' started.
It's has been 6 years 50/50 control, just like Aleppo. Now it's time for complete recapture of the city. Israel probably wont do anything, and Jordan have closed the border for wounded and stopped paying the salaries for fighters.
Only place where Israel might make some problem is area along Golan, that will be left for end.

That said, SAA should be on one Tabqa-Shaer-Palmyra- around Tanf front in a month or two. Only question is will the Kurds manage to capture Raqqa(IS retreat) or will it become meat grinder like Mosul in next two months.

Daraa has 31000 militants in such a small area. It will take years to expel them, if the SAA hasn't recaptured smaller pockets like Ghouta and Ar Rastan yet. Its far better to stop the advance of the SDF since they're threatening syrian unity more than largely discredited jihadists. Also wherever the SDF goes, so do US bases. the same can't be said for Al nusra and others.

Bit out of date but it shows where the villages are. Also

Hassan Ridha‏ @sayed_ridha 15h15 hours ago

5km until Syrian Arab Army reenters Raqqa province and ~20km until they reach SDF frontline in outskirts of Tabqa



Emmanuel‏ @EmmanuelGMay 13h13 hours ago

East #Aleppo :#SAA take Al Mas‘ūdīyah, Jubb al Ḩammām, Fayssaliyah Umm Ḩijārah, Rasm al-Ghazal + many villages v @sayed_ridha + @NatDefFor

KomissarBojanchev wrote:Daraa has 31000 militants in such a small area. It will take years to expel them

I doubt they have 31,000 current, active combat militants there. Even half of that would be too high. Daraa should have a good 10,000 active militants at any given time (plus or minus here and there), possibly with another few thousand on standby in Jordan (for rotation/regroup).

Hassan Ridha‏ @sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
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Replying to @sayed_ridha
Syrian Arab Army assert control over the north-eastern & central parts of al-Tuwaihina mountain east of Khanser - Ithriya axis, SE Aleppo CS

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

calm wrote:And Daraa is definitely going to be captured completely, if sources are correct. That is a place where 'revolution' started.
It's has been 6 years 50/50 control, just like Aleppo. Now it's time for complete recapture of the city. Israel probably wont do anything, and Jordan have closed the border for wounded and stopped paying the salaries for fighters.
Only place where Israel might make some problem is area along Golan, that will be left for end.

That said, SAA should be on one Tabqa-Shaer-Palmyra- around Tanf front in a month or two. Only question is will the Kurds manage to capture Raqqa(IS retreat) or will it become meat grinder like Mosul in next two months.

Daraa has 31000 militants in such a small area. It will take years to expel them, if the SAA hasn't recaptured smaller pockets like Ghouta and Ar Rastan yet. Its far better to stop the advance of the SDF since they're threatening syrian unity more than  largely discredited jihadists.  Also wherever the SDF goes, so do US bases. the same can't be said for Al nusra and others.

No, there are maybe 15k of them. In wadi Barada there were 7k rebels. But they surrendered after 1 month of fighting. Same SAA units then went to Qabun, but it took 3 months to defeat 3k rebels in that urban area.
So if we talk about Gutha, it would last for 1 year and will bring large casualties to SAA.


It's clear that SAA know where and when to strike, when it comes to Damascus and surroundings. And in Rastan, there are 3000 rebels, but that pocket will not be attacked becouse there are some Turkmens in there, and Turkey do not want them under attack. So everything in the right time for SAA. According to Syrian from Tartous, his friend just returned home from Daraa, after 11 month spent there. He said that there were large casualties on SAA side in last 3/4 months while rebels were advancing in that one district. But rebels have suffered couple time biger casualties in that time.

So everyone is saying that rebels are exhausted now, and Jordan is not a friend of rebels any more. Rebels are publicly asking for aid for people there, something is not right in the south front. And half of that south front, that part east of road to Daraa is idle for last 3 years, no fighting no nothing. Those are real Syrian/Rebels that do not want to fight with Al Qaeda and are sitting idle waiting for SAA to take Daraa so they can surrender and go back to their lives. No one of those FSA groups took part in Daraa offensive, much of fighting in last mont is done by HTS(AQ) and other extremists factions.

So it is really possible that Daraa will be captured in next couple of months. And remember, those units that went to Daraa are units of RG stationed in Damascus. They have liberated all pockets around Damascus in last year. nothing is left expect east Ghouta, but there is a civil war going on between Arabia(Jaysh Al Islam) and Qatar(Al Rahman corps/al Qaida) in there. So no need for SAA to attack them as long as they keep slaughtering each other.

KomissarBojanchev wrote:

calm wrote:And Daraa is definitely going to be captured completely, if sources are correct. That is a place where 'revolution' started.
It's has been 6 years 50/50 control, just like Aleppo. Now it's time for complete recapture of the city. Israel probably wont do anything, and Jordan have closed the border for wounded and stopped paying the salaries for fighters.
Only place where Israel might make some problem is area along Golan, that will be left for end.

That said, SAA should be on one Tabqa-Shaer-Palmyra- around Tanf front in a month or two. Only question is will the Kurds manage to capture Raqqa(IS retreat) or will it become meat grinder like Mosul in next two months.

Daraa has 31000 militants in such a small area. It will take years to expel them, if the SAA hasn't recaptured smaller pockets like Ghouta and Ar Rastan yet. Its far better to stop the advance of the SDF since they're threatening syrian unity more than  largely discredited jihadists.  Also wherever the SDF goes, so do US bases. the same can't be said for Al nusra and others.

The highlighted part is very true and this is where the SAA should focus a little bit more, you can just see by the actions of this group and see what they are doing.

par far wrote:[The highlighted part is very true and this is where the SAA should focus a little bit more, you can just see by the actions of this group and see what they are doing.

That group has not faced any significant air power implemented on them and their paid fighters. Once 500kg and 1000kg ordnance starts falling on them, they will be driven out from places like Tabqa or even Raqqa. Kurds are no locals to areas like that and the only impetus they have for fighting there is three-fold: money, allied air support and diplomatic (so to speak) pressure. All three of these factors are dependent on foreign interests and they are severely diminished if Russia decides SDF is in its way of doing things in Syria.

Aldin Abazović