The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Russian gov actually would like Donbass to be reintegrated into the Ukraine. Remember that Donbass outside of Ukraine = potentially 3 mln fewer pro-Russian votes in every Ukrainian elections.

I believe that too much blood has been shed for the donbass to re-enter the ukrainian state in its previous form, especially without any real guarantee.

At minimum it could accept to be part of a loose confederation, with neutral status and freedom of language, in which the donbass is an indipendent federal state, and in which banderist supporters are banned and those responsible for war crimes and persecution against the non-banderist population are tried and put in prison.

Only in this case a sort of ukrainian state could exist, even if I believe it would be only something temporary.

The.current ukrainian state post USSR dissolution was only defined by a rejection of Russia. In addition, it does not have an history independent from Russia, if not counting the time it was a polish protectorate or a vassal of other countries. (Even their anthem is a rip off of the polish one)

With all the issues and the russophobia currently present in Georgia (I believe also due to one side interpretation of history), at least they are a nation full of history and with an independent and proud (even if quite remote) past that precedes Russia (but unfortunately currently going in a very wrong direction).

instead, all the accomplishments made in ukraine or by Ukrainians, were related to Russian history and made when they were part of one russian state or the other (kievski Rus, imperial Russia, or soviet union).

We can only hope that there's war and the Novorussians are allowed to go on the offensive to liberate Donbass and overthrow the regime.

It is odd really... you think a proper conflict will settle things properly rather than this long drawn out cold conflict where neither side can move forward until all this BS is sorted out... it makes a full scale conflict sound appealing, but the better result would be for the forces in kiev to come to their senses and realise that the best way for everyone to move forward is for them to man up and admit what they did was wrong, and to start talks to work out where to go to from here... but that is never going to happen for as long as the EU and the US controls them basically and has that offer of a brighter future with the west than any future they might have with Russia or China or whomever else they might want to work with.

kvs wrote:

Note the lack of perforation on this side of MH17.   The alleged BUK missile detonation occurred on the other side we have seen the perforated panel from
that side.   The proximity of the high explosive Buk warhead detonation (as even accepted by the Hague kangaroo inquiry) would have resulted in many
of the metal projectiles to go straight through the cockpit and exit out the other side.    No commercial aircraft has armour.  There is just too little resistance
from the walls of the cockpit to fully stop all projectiles.   Some of them will be stopped by framing that holds the outer aluminum skin, but none of the
interior plastic panels will be effective at this.  

So the actual MH17 damage is consistent with strafing by 30 mm cannon fire incident from the front-left (facing forward) of the cockpit.  This is not
consistent with a Buk warhead detonation in the assumed location.    The strafing did not likely occur from the side of the cockpit because some of the
30 mm bullets would have penetrated both walls.   But this has to be qualified by the fact that the energy of the bullets is limited by the proximity of
the attacking jet.  This detail is obscure unlike the assertions about the proximity of the Buk warhead.

One of the versions I heard was that MH17 was first hit by a missile (possibility, but not absolutely a Buk missile), and then finished by cannon fire from an aircraft after it started losing altitude

The problem I have with the strafing scenarios is that they couldn't have strafed and been hit by a missile at the same time, and presumably the airliner would need to be first straffed and then destroyed by the SAM... but the cockpit recording tapes seem to suggest a sudden thing... very much like a missile exploding and killing or incapacitating everyone in the cockpit... and after that there would not be much left to strafe.

Well that is a reasonable description... if it was a MiG-29 or Su-27 for that matter it would have been a R-27 likely used, which has a 39kg HE Frag warhead, which is pretty substantial...

https://southfront.org/new-border-wall-radical-nationalists-in-action-pressure-on-orthodox-church-and-other-ordinary-news-from-ukraine/

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3729349.html

After 15 years of developing the Dozer-B Ukraine instead intends to buy the Polish copy
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3728739.html

kvs wrote:That version is consistent with the wreckage.  An air to air missile warhead would be much weaker/smaller than a Buk warhead
so it is possible that the damage was confined on one side of MH17.  The need for the strafing would be due to the fact that
the AA damage was not enough to bring down the jet.  The AA missile needs to destroy the engines.  I have no information
if the engines were damaged by a missile.   But if the AA missile was fired from the front of MH17, it would not see the
intense IR signature of the jet engine exhaust and may hit the fuselage instead.  Assuming the AA had IR homing.  If it
had some sort of proximity homing then it would be like Buk and could strike the front of the jet.  

If a Missile hits the cockpit the plane is coming down which is what happened the Buk missile hi the plane dead in the noise and brought it down.

Russia never Claimed a Ukranian MIG shot at it and if they could prove that they would have, they have all the Radars they need to tell you what planes are in the air and when over Ukraine.

This is "propaganda" but hey Pro-Russian forum so yeah I am sure that silly reality will be accepted here.

Radar information offered by the Russians was rejected as silly propaganda that could not be trusted, just as information from the Russian government regarding information about the BUK missile taken from the serial numbers of the missile found which were also rejected.

The standard mantra of the group that investigated this situation relies on information from a known Russophobic sight run by elliot higgens called Bellingcat, which was a UK funded organisation set up to counter Russian influence in the EU that started operations even before claims of Russian meddling in western politics were even made... but they have been meddling in western politics all this time without any criticism or scrutiny... it seems it is ok to meddle in democratic processes as long as you don't get money from the Kremlin...

The proof provided was some photos of a Russian BUK system with claimed it entered Ukrainian territory unnoticed, was used to shoot down the airliner and then withdrawn back to Russia without any other evidence like satellite imagery or actual proof at the time it was supposed to have happened... evidence since rendered irrelevant with the serial numbers of the missiles proving it was Ukrainian missiles that were used.

Regarding this whole mess... it is all propaganda... you don't think the US or UK or France care about some dutch people and some aussies and some malaysians getting killed over europe do you?

GarryB wrote:Radar information offered by the Russians was rejected as silly propaganda that could not be trusted, just as information from the Russian government regarding information about the BUK missile taken from the serial numbers of the missile found which were also rejected.

The standard mantra of the group that investigated this situation relies on information from a known Russophobic sight run by elliot higgens called Bellingcat, which was a UK funded organisation set up to counter Russian influence in the EU that started operations even before claims of Russian meddling in western politics were even made... but they have been meddling in western politics all this time without any criticism or scrutiny... it seems it is ok to meddle in democratic processes as long as you don't get money from the Kremlin...

The proof provided was some photos of a Russian BUK system with claimed it entered Ukrainian territory unnoticed, was used to shoot down the airliner and then withdrawn back to Russia without any other evidence like satellite imagery or actual proof at the time it was supposed to have happened... evidence since rendered irrelevant with the serial numbers of the missiles proving it was Ukrainian missiles that were used.

Regarding this whole mess... it is all propaganda... you don't think the US or UK or France care about some dutch people and some aussies and some malaysians getting killed over europe do you?

Even by their own Radar information they never made any claims about a MIG. I don't deny a SU-25 was in the air but it fired no missile at MH17 and don't try and bring up some Fairy Tale Mig excuse, that has zero ounces of credibility.

That excuse is hollow and a flat out lie, So don't try and pass it off as fact.

You guys love to denounce anything that makes Russia look bad has "Western Propaganda" but immediately twist facts and make up silly ideas like a Mig Shot it down with an Air to Air Missiles. When it's a boldface farce.

That is one of the problems with this forum hands down you prefer to bury the truth if it makes Russia look bad. I accept the truth no matter how bad it makes anyone look.

Again it wasn't a Russian Buk, how many dam times have I said this to you? over Five already I think. Do you have the memory of a gold fish or something.

Hello. I have stayed out of the whole Boeing discussion but I would like to comment on a couple points

GarryB wrote:The problem I have with the strafing scenarios is that they couldn't have strafed and been hit by a missile at the same time, and presumably the airliner would need to be first straffed and then destroyed by the SAM..

I suppose those with knowledge of military matters would assume that in the case of being shot down by an airplane, first an air to air missile was fired from afar, and then the attacking airplane finished it off with cannon fire.

An intriguing possibility is that things happened in the reverse order, first the attacker stalked the airplane and shot the cabin with cannon fire so as to kill the pilots first and prevent anything recorded or transmitted, and delivered a missile as the killing blow.

An ambush is easier to set up using airplanes to intercept the liner rather than directing the Boeing to fly within range of the SAM.

Thus I do not believe in the "shot down by a Buk" theory. It could have been easily proven if fragments of the warhead were found in the airplane and passenger corpses. That they didn't find anything, or that the elements were of another type that would rule out the Buk makes me think it was not a Buk at all. One alternartive possibility is that it was hit both by an Ukrainian Buk and an air to air missile, fired from opposite sides, see below. If the Ukrainians had shot down the airliner with a Buk, this would have no mattered at all as it would have been blamed in Russia. That no fragments were ever presented as evidence seems the evidence was unacceptable.



The most glaring inconsistency is that a piece of fuselage below the cockpit has both entry and exit holes. and at oblique angles. This means hits from both sides. More over some of the entry holes look elliptic or rounded, suggestive of bullets striking at an angle, not the ragged holes missile shrapnel would leave.


This could match the scenario where the attacker plane, wether a Sukhoi 25 or a MiG made an attack run shooting with the cannon at the nose crossing the flight plath of the stricken plane and turning around to deliver a second blow from the other side.

Another fact is the photo of the body of the pilot that was censored, along with the autopsy reports on the bodies of the passengers. The corpse had clean holes in the belly and must have been caused by projectiles of a considerable caliber to make such clean gaping holes clearly visible, because bullet holes in bodies tend to colapse and they are actually smaller than the calibre of the bullet. Warhead fragments would have caused ragged wounds, and at those speeds would have torn the pilot torso reducing it to pulp. Of course, at close range (less than 100m), heavy 20 or 30mm cannon bullets would have also destroyed the pilot body. This means that whatever killed the pilot were large caliber bullets fired at medium range and that would have lost a lot of their energy in getting through the fuselage skin, structure and pilot seat before getting through the pilot torso entering the back and exiting in front.

Any trained forensic expert can tell a bullet wound from a shrapnel one, even if no projectile or fragment remains in the body just by examining the wound channel and holes.


That these facts and the photos and the autopsy results have been carefully censored indicates that they didn't find Buk fragments but something else that wasn't convenient.

The fact that there's a living witness, an Ukrainian airforce technician that fled to Russia that claimed a Sukhoi 25 took off loaded with an AA missile and came back without it, and that the pilot a captain Voloshin, commited suicide under mysterious circumstances only further reinforces the suspicions that it was a an air to air shooting.

Russia knew they did this but their data will not be accepted, so I guess they played along with the Buk theory and came up with the Almaz Antey firing experiment because they knew eventually this fake version would also incriminate the Ukrainians.


So in the end they will blame Poroshenko as a scapegoat or will admit the Boeing was shot down by Ukraine with a SAM, and will claim it was an accident. More likely, it will get swept under the rug and remain a unsolved mystery for decades unless the regime in Kiev falls.

Even by their own Radar information they never made any claims about a MIG. I don't deny a SU-25 was in the air but it fired no missile at MH17 and don't try and bring up some Fairy Tale Mig excuse, that has zero ounces of credibility.

I didn't say they did. Also if you admit an Su-25 was in the air when an airliner was shot down then isn't it therefore reasonable to think it might be related to the incident... either an original target for the rebels or the purpetrator... what altitude was the Frogfoot operating at... certainly not at low altitude because that wouldn't be safe.

And if the rebels could operate this missiles why would they engage a very high flying aircraft using civilian IFF codes and ignore a Ukrainian military aircraft that might retaliate to their missile launch by bombing them?

And that is assuming the Rebels even knew how to operate the BUK.

You guys love to denounce anything that makes Russia look bad has "Western Propaganda" but immediately twist facts and make up silly ideas like a Mig Shot it down with an Air to Air Missiles. When it's a boldface farce.

What... the west is allowed to make up anything, but Russia can only speak the truth... sounds like you are more of a Russia/Putin patriot than I am...

When no one knows what has happened there is a thing called speculation about what might have happened... normally such things are based on known facts like a Su-25 being in the air at the time, and Ukrainian BUK batteries also being present, not fairy tales like Russian units driving into rebel held territory and launching an attack and then withdrawing without being seen at all... but even that fairy tale is proven wrong because the wrong missile was used.

That is one of the problems with this forum hands down you prefer to bury the truth if it makes Russia look bad. I accept the truth no matter how bad it makes anyone look.

No, your problem with this forum is that we know the western definition of the truth is anything that makes Russia look bad.

Snowden, Assange, Manning... these people would be heros if their actions had exposed only Russian and Chinese and North Korean secrets, but they exposed evidence of western governmental criminality that has been brushed back under the carpet and jumped upon... no peace prizes for these guys... the problem I have is not that they are fellow pro Russia pro putin fanboys, these guys are patriots... they didn't expose the serious criminal activity of the west to make it appear evil or to help China or Russia... they probably thought when such things were revealed the west would be shocked and action would be taken to put those people responsible in jail and make sure it doesn't happen again... instead they get jail time and the war criminals keep their pensions and medals and badges... it is not how the hollywood movie normally ends... and of course to rub salt into the wound you know hollywood will make movies about it but the real heros of these stories will be Russian agents.

Again it wasn't a Russian Buk, how many dam times have I said this to you? over Five already I think. Do you have the memory of a gold fish or something.

But the investigation claims it was a Russian BUK... you are being a bit selective about what you accept and what you don't... the Russians are therefore lying about some things but not others... would be interesting in hearing from you how you determine the lie from the truth.

I suppose those with knowledge of military matters would assume that in the case of being shot down by an airplane, first an air to air missile was fired from afar, and then the attacking airplane finished it off with cannon fire.

Well the problem is that a normal interception of an aircraft entering restricted airspace it is normal practise to fire cannon rounds as a warning, but as few interceptors use tracer ammo this generally is redundant, and in this case they lured the aircraft into that airspace on purpose so it likely wasn't a legitimate interception with aircraft safety in mind... the 30mm cannon of the Su-25 has an enormous rate of fire and is not really optimised for air to air use, so in a climb a long burst could have been fired... when I say long burst however the aircraft carries 250 rounds of ready to fire ammo which would be less than 3-4 seconds of continuous firing.

Thus I do not believe in the "shot down by a Buk" theory. It could have been easily proven if fragments of the warhead were found in the airplane and passenger corpses. That they didn't find anything, or that the elements were of another type that would rule out the Buk makes me think it was not a Buk at all.

Actually the specific fragments of the old model BUK used by the Ukrainians and no longer in Russian service were found in the crew and evidence of large numbers penetrating the front of the fuselage of the recovered parts of the aircraft prove it was hit by a BUK.

While I agree that an Su-25 could have done this if the evidence supported it, I don't think the evidence shown does.

I think a BUK missile was launched by a Ukrainian BUK battery on the ground... the aircraft had been redirected to a different path so their new flightpath was not something that was expected. I think the investigation could not hide the fragments found in the bodies of the crew and so had no choice but to accept a BUK missile shot down the plane, what I think happened is that the Ukrainians have fudged the numbers and lied to the investigators and convinced them the BUK came from a rebel held area and then tried hard to convince them... even to the point of getting elliot higgins to supply false made up information about Russian batteries moving in and out of Ukrainian territory without being noticed at the time. Their big fuck up was that they didn't realise the Russians had replaced all their old SA-11 missiles with SA-17 missiles that are much more modern and much more capable (can shoot down ARMs for instance) and use a different warhead fragment shape that is distinctive enough to prove it wasn't used in this case).

If the Ukrainians had shot down the airliner with a Buk, this would have no mattered at all as it would have been blamed in Russia. That no fragments were ever presented as evidence seems the evidence was unacceptable.

They tried to blame Russia with a cock and bull story about Russian batteries moving in and out of the Ukraine to shoot down aircraft... because the only reason the all powerful Ukrainian military forces couldn't defeat the little rebel forces was because of enormous Russian support.

The footage of 14.5m anti tank rifles from WWII being used by the rebels and also 23mm calibre tubes added to the barrels of their rifles to launch 23mm cannon shells pulled from cannon rounds instead of 40mm underbarrel grenade launchers show you how well supplied the rebels are by the Russian forces... it seems like there isn't a functioning black market there... muslims in the Yugoslavian conflicts were better supplied than these Ukrainians, but lets not go into that because they had full western support and assistance, where as the Ukrainians being bombed and shelled by their own US installed government don't surprisingly enough.

The fact that there's a living witness, an Ukrainian airforce technician that fled to Russia that claimed a Sukhoi 25 took off loaded with an AA missile and came back without it, and that the pilot a captain Voloshin, commited suicide under mysterious circumstances only further reinforces the suspicions that it was a an air to air shooting.

Again, this is important information those in the west choose to totally ignore, as I said, I think it was a Ukrainian BUK, but I can't say I have all the evidence in front of me to discount other theories.

Russia knew they did this but their data will not be accepted, so I guess they played along with the Buk theory and came up with the Almaz Antey firing experiment because they knew eventually this fake version would also incriminate the Ukrainians.

Their problem is that the radar coverage is largely civilian with a low radar rotation rate... so a mach 3 plus missile climbing from the ground to about 10km altitude might not even appear on such a radar screen. Most civilian airliners have transponders that emit an identification signal to boost their visibility on civilian radars to make them easier to track... BUK missiles don't carry such transponders.

So in the end they will blame Poroshenko as a scapegoat or will admit the Boeing was shot down by Ukraine with a SAM, and will claim it was an accident. More likely, it will get swept under the rug and remain a unsolved mystery for decades unless the regime in Kiev falls.

Sadly, It think they will cling to their mantra and these four people they have identified will get the blame and be given jail sentences in absentia. In a few decades time depending upon what happens the truth might come out, but it will be an inconvenient truth that most major western news agencies probably wont even publish anyway.

Perhaps the next shooting rampage in the US will lead to a ban on semi autos like it did here... pretty much the tiny gun owning portion of the population was resigned to not being able to complain or be heard and have handed over their guns, but in the US this could mean civil war...

I think the case that 30 mm rounds were used on MH17 is solid. That automatically destroys the propaganda narrative about Russian/rebel Buk involvement.

Well at the altitude the aircraft was operating at means it must have been an aircraft, so you are right to disbelieve claims rebels in the Donbass could operate a BUK system from the 1980s that wouldn't be automated like a more modern system would be today... not that I think just anyone could operate them anyway.

Um No again Russia themselves never said the plane was attacked by 30mm fire and if that happened they would have said so, again making up large amounts of BS.

It's one thing to say speculation it's another to make up Fairy Tales about MIG's being in the air and staffing something with cannon fire which no one and I mean no one ever put forward, not the Rebels, not Russia.

There are no clear signs of staffing fire on the wreck there are clear signs of a BUK missile impacting the front.


Again the SU-25 firing missiles is a lie, that guy in question was found to have a fake identity and guess what no one has heard from him since then.


MH17 was brought down from the front, the story the Russians claimed was that it took it out from the rear witnesses report seeing the plane come down intact meaning there was no missing tail wing or other parts. If multiple missiles were used they where would have been missing chunks before hitting the ground.

So no a SU-25 did not shoot it down, it cannot operate at that ceiling and the very guys some tried to pin it on claimed the attack happened from a different angle, not the one you guys are claiming. They also ditched the story soon after.

Sorry but Imma go with the Russians on this one.

Um No again Russia themselves never said the plane was attacked by 30mm fire and if that happened they would have said so, again making up large amounts of BS.

What they said at the time could only have either been speculation or knowledge based on guilt. They mentioned an aircraft in the air at the time which presumably the Ukrainians denied... why would they deny it?

Did it not fit the frame they were trying to place on the rebels or the Russians?

It's one thing to say speculation it's another to make up Fairy Tales about MIG's being in the air and staffing something with cannon fire which no one and I mean no one ever put forward, not the Rebels, not Russia.

My understanding is that this is a suggestion put forward after the wreckage was recovered and put back together in the west. Finding holes consistent with 30mm cannon shells would lead me to speculate about strafing too, knowing there was an aircraft in the air at the time that was equipped with a 30mm cannon.

If the holes suggested 60mm calibre then I would not suggest strafing because aircraft carried guns don't come in that calibre.

See how the speculation changes as new evidence comes to light either supporting or eliminating speculation options.

There are no clear signs of staffing fire on the wreck there are clear signs of a BUK missile impacting the front.

Well that is a lie... a direct impact of a BUK and there would be very little wreckage to look at... it would have been shredded into tiny pieces... shattered in fact.

This was a near miss where the proximity fuse did its job...

That is because it is an old model missile and not so accurate as the newer models which likely would have exploded inside the aircraft.

Again the SU-25 firing missiles is a lie, that guy in question was found to have a fake identity and guess what no one has heard from him since then.

When the competing evidence is photos on a fan site funded by the UK government and with ties to western intel services I don't think there is evidence to say outright what was said was a lie... such witnesses disappear all the time... where are the Skripals for instance?

MH17 was brought down from the front, the story the Russians claimed was that it took it out from the rear witnesses report seeing the plane come down intact meaning there was no missing tail wing or other parts. If multiple missiles were used they where would have been missing chunks before hitting the ground.

You are telling us what you say the Russians claimed... can you post a quote for that please.

The official report largely ignored locals eyewitness accounts because they presumably didn't fit the framework they were putting together... BTW a western reporter went to the area and collected items and filmed interviews with locals... all of which were seized by authorities when he returned to the west... he was worried because he promised many of the witnesses anonymity because of the danger from Ukrainian officials... presumably this evidence and interview footage was handed over to the investigation team that includes Ukrainian intel... so those witnesses are likely to have disappeared now too.

Sorry but Imma go with the Russians on this one.

What a shock... going to blame Putin personally are we?

Be careful now... he will decide the 2020 US elections afterall... so he is practically your boss.

Ukraine army deaths number in Donbas is approaching US army deaths number in Iraq.

https://memorybook.org.ua/

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Um No again Russia themselves never said the plane was attacked by 30mm fire and if that happened they would have said so, again making up large amounts of BS.

It's one thing to say speculation it's another to make up Fairy Tales about MIG's being in the air and staffing something with cannon fire which no one and I mean no one ever put forward, not the Rebels, not Russia.

There are no clear signs of staffing fire on the wreck there are clear signs of a BUK missile impacting the front.


Again the SU-25 firing missiles is a lie, that guy in question was found to have a fake identity and guess what no one has heard from him since then.


MH17 was brought down from the front, the story the Russians claimed was that it took it out from the rear witnesses report seeing the plane come down intact meaning there was no missing tail wing or other parts. If multiple missiles were used they where would have been missing chunks before hitting the ground.

So no a SU-25 did not shoot it down, it cannot operate at that ceiling and the very guys some tried to pin it on claimed the attack happened from a different angle, not the one you guys are claiming. They also ditched the story soon after.

Sorry but Imma go with the Russians on this one.

I think rebels shot it down. They captured an army base in July. Must have been load of Buk 1 missiles built in the 1980s in there. The first Buk was shot in July soon after capture of army base.

It is not the first civilian airliner that the Ukrainian military has shot down... they shot down a Yak some years ago using an S-200 with about 80 Israelis on it from memory... think it was a Yak-40 or something.

GarryB wrote:It is not the first civilian airliner that the Ukrainian military has shot down... they shot down a Yak some years ago using an S-200 with about 80 Israelis on it from memory... think it was a Yak-40 or something.

yeah, in October 2001 they shot down Siberia Airlines Flight 1812, it was a Tu-154 flying from Tel Aviv and in route to Novosibirsk.


Well 13 years before the americans shot down an iranian airliner... the ukrainians wanted probably to show that they were ready with american values....

Well if we use Teresa Mays logic... it would be in the interests of the US and Kiev for this to happen and against the interests of the rebels and Moscow, so it is highly likely Kiev did it... what sanctions should be imposed?

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Ukrainains irate as Sara Netanyahu throws bread on floor during Kiev welcome