Does anybody think that this could be mitigated with cutting edge AD systems and helicopters on smaller ships? They could be submarine's eyes and complement it with reconnaissance, firepower and support. Submarines could be also fitted with UUV, that is also UAV.
Certainly the Navys SAMs and anti aircraft capability is significant, but while the Russian Army is structured to operate in environments where there is no air control, it would benefit from air force support... and I think the same with the Navy... an air component would improve target detection and engaging threats early before they get close to those expensive ships and subs.
I think satellite support is also important as well.
It goes without saying, that I meant operating in distant areas. Aforementioned Russian 2017 maritime strategy clearly supports such use of navy, considering main national threat NATO dominance in the world oceans.
A large part of controlling any part of sea or ground is also controlling the air space above it.
In a full war scenario such isolated groups would be in serious trouble, but the presence of Zircon means no enemy ship would be safe, so with an air component they would actually be rather more powerful than many countries entire military forces, but during general peace time allowing Russian use of the open sea having aircraft means you avoid stupid situations...
For instance if you detect something approaching and you radio it to turn away and it keeps coming... you either launch a SAM, or gamble it might be totally innocent.
With a carrier you can send a fighter to fly out at very high speed armed to the teeth with AAMs to identify the radar contact and warn it off or if it is hostile to deal with it.
The further you can do this from your carrier and ships the better for them.
So Tu-142 in ASW will need some complement in AD.
I would love to see something rather more exotic... a nuclear powered airship as an example that could operate as an AWACS and a MPA...
In fact it could use trade winds at different altitudes to get places quite quickly...
If you are talking about something like US intervention where they attack a country with their navy and 10 carriers, it won't happen. Neither would happen a war against nato in the Atlantic.
To support an ally... like they did successfully in Syria... because it was close enough to send bombers and cruise missiles... if they had tried that in Libya they probably would have struggled without a carrier.
With a carrier it means they can send a sizable force that could have started setting up an IADS like they are currently doing in Syria... Gaddafi could have paid for it... and it would have saved a civil war and a lot of deaths... of course it would have blocked the flood gates of the immigrants from Africa to Europe so it wouldn't be all good...
They are not stupid, they know very well the limitations of their forces, a text published officialy won't change that. Most of the ships being retired are destroyer size, most of upgraded are also destroyer size but not enough of them while most new build ships are corvettes and small frigates. Gorshkov class was meant to be the backbone of their navy and they have only one. That doesn't allow them to make deployemebt far away.
Their land neighbours in europe hate them, and while the sell gas, there is not that much else Russia should be buying from the EU... they should be making that sort of stuff themselves and selling it to China and Africa and central and south america.... but to sell to those regions they will need to ensure the sea lines of communication are kept open, and you can bet your ass that the US navy and the Royal navy and the French navy wont lift a finger to help a Russian ship trading with Cuba or Venezuela or anyone else.
Against submerged subs their are useless.
Fighter aircraft from a carrier should be able to carry the same torpedoes that helicopters and Il-38s can carry... a few naval helos with dipping sonars to find said subs would be the other needed component.
Perhaps R-37 can shoot the P-8 in the coastal area where fighters operate, but in the open ocean Russian naval task group without a CVN will be in a different position. Should be the P-8 accompanied with fighters, the winner might not be that easy to tell. Especially if it can drop its weapons from safe distance. So the answer would probably lie in comparing ranges.
The thing is that a CVN would extend the sight and reach of any surface group and add several defence layers to their already pretty good defensive screen.
Seeing things early means more time to react... more importantly having fighter aircraft you can send out to investigate something means you are no longer a blind man with a rifle... an approaching air contact can be investigated... 200 closing at high speed does not really need investigating but being able to launch fighters with AAMs able to blunt any attack before it comes over the horizon means any attack needs to be much bigger to succeed... which makes it more expensive for the enemy... harder to organise for the enemy, and of course limits the number of enemy that could threaten your force.
Just because you have a CVN does not make you a US force... you will still have Onyx and Zircon and other capable systems to defeat any enemy surface fleet, but it makes them easier to find and it gives you more options to deal with an enemies air component too.
The R-37M is for all 4++th Gen Russian fighters and 5th gen Russian fighters too.
In the near future the AAMs are only going to get even better... likely with missiles optimised to deal with F-22 and large numbers of F-35 expected to be in service.
The new mini Pantsir missiles however with four missiles per tube suggest that an aircraft like Su-39 (Su-25TM) could carry 8 missiles per middle pylon, so that would be 64 missiles on two pylons... the Ka-52 should be able to manage the same... 64 guided two stage AAMs with high speed and likely 20km range, and two spare pylons for something else would be a useful point defence system on its own.