Russian Economy General News: #2

Austin wrote:Read on ria today some banks are running out of USD and Euro and have imposed limit on the transaction.

Seems like Rouble is facing a very difficult time .Markets are panicking.

The peak need for USD would be in Dec and Russian Reserves today is at 428 Billion USD.

Hopefully by End of Dec Rouble Stabalises and CBR end the year with $400 billion Reserves.

Keeping Fingers Crossed

Dont want to see 1998 like situation

You wont.

Look at the economy of Russia in 1998 vs Today.

how many USD and Euro's don't mean squat about their economy.

Markets are panicking?
http://www.finmarket.ru/database/fintool/TotalQuotes.asp?id=6039

Austin wrote:Read on ria today some banks are running out of USD and Euro and have imposed limit on the transaction.

Seems like Rouble is facing a very difficult time .Markets are panicking.

The peak need for USD would be in Dec and Russian Reserves today is at 428 Billion USD.

Hopefully by End of Dec Rouble Stabalises and CBR end the year with $400 billion Reserves.

Keeping Fingers Crossed

Dont want to see 1998 like situation

The CBR clowns and the Russian government are 100% at fault for this situation. If Rossneft, Gazprom, Lukoil, etc. demanded
payment in rubles and not dollars, then foreign oil and natural gas buyers would have to buy rubles first. This would mean
the CBR could issue more rubles (which would be sterilized if it knew what it was doing) and would accumulate dollars and euro
from oil and gas buyers.

My theory is that Putin and his government drank too much monetarist koolaid over the last 20 years and think there would be
risk of hyperinflation if they sold oil and gas for rubles since there would allegedly not be enough internal demand for rubles
by the Russian economy to absorb $350 billion worth of them each year. I think they are being retarded since we have had
50% money supply increases in Russia every year fro most of the last 15 years with an inflation rate (including structural
price adjustment) below 13%. In other words, Russia's economy is severely undermonetized. If it had no capacity to absorb
any ruble inputs then the the 50% money supply increases would have resulted in an over 50% inflation rate. It would
be over 50% because of multiplier effects and Russia would be facing hyperinflation.

At least these koolaid drinkers could have Gazprom require customers to pay in rubles, then the Russian economy would see
about $55 billion dollars worth of ruble inflow/recirculation. They are not even trying and are just hoping some stupid effort
by the CBR to deplete reserves to fight off speculative attacks will secure he exchange rate. This is breathtakingly inane and
will fail. The only way to secure the ruble exchange rate is by creating a serious demand for rubles abroad. And for Russia this
is easy as cake.

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:Read on ria today some banks are running out of USD and Euro and have imposed limit on the transaction.

Seems like Rouble is facing a very difficult time .Markets are panicking.

The peak need for USD would be in Dec and Russian Reserves today is at 428 Billion USD.

Hopefully by End of Dec Rouble Stabalises and CBR end the year with $400 billion Reserves.

Keeping Fingers Crossed

Dont want to see 1998 like situation

The CBR clowns and the Russian government are 100% at fault for this situation.   If Rossneft, Gazprom, Lukoil, etc. demanded
payment in rubles and not dollars, then foreign oil and natural gas buyers would have to buy rubles first.   This would mean
the CBR could issue more rubles (which would be sterilized if it knew what it was doing) and would accumulate dollars and euro
from oil and gas buyers.  

My theory is that Putin and his government drank too much monetarist koolaid over the last 20 years and think there would be
risk of hyperinflation if they sold oil and gas for rubles since there would allegedly not be enough internal demand for rubles
by the Russian economy to absorb $350 billion worth of them each year.   I think they are being retarded since we have had
50% money supply increases in Russia every year fro most of the last 15 years with an inflation rate (including structural
price adjustment) below 13%.   In other words, Russia's economy is severely undermonetized.   If it had no capacity to absorb
any ruble inputs then the the 50% money supply increases would have resulted in an over 50% inflation rate.   It would
be over 50% because of multiplier effects and Russia would be facing hyperinflation.  

At least these koolaid drinkers could have Gazprom require customers to pay in rubles, then the Russian economy would see
about $55 billion dollars worth of ruble inflow/recirculation.   They are not even trying and are just hoping some stupid effort
by the CBR to deplete reserves to fight off speculative attacks will secure he exchange rate.   This is breathtakingly inane and
will fail.  The only way to secure the ruble exchange rate is by creating a serious demand for rubles abroad.   And for Russia this
is easy as cake.

Possibly.

But so far, how I see it, is that Putin already mentioned about de-dollarization.  He never mentioned about getting rid of Euro's or any other currency but USD.  As well, he stated a few months ago he is not for saving the Ruble or pushing to protect it other than let it free flow.  Yes, Ruble can increase in value by forcing trade in Rubles, but I don't think that is what they want.

So far, metal companies, aircraft companies and other producers are seeing growth in their industrial production for first time in some time already, and it has more to due with the lower value of the ruble, making the demand for domestic products higher as it would be far cheaper.  There is also due to import substitution of course.  But the higher the rubles value, the less purchases will be made due to high costs.  Inflation is something quite natural and we are getting hit with it here in Canada not only due to devaluation of the CAD, but due to the higher demand for imports (as we are moving more production overseas).

What Austin is afraid of it seems, is the groups/banks that have foreign debt will be in trouble as they will not be able to pay off the debt unless they got the money and with Rubles being lower, it will now cost significantly more to pay off the foreign debts.  Domestic debts will make no difference as it is all done in Rubles and that will mean with devaluation, debt will end up staying the same and with a higher influx of money available (rubles), they can pay it off easier.  But the problem is, foreign debt is kinda a two way street.  Russia may or may not pay it back.  As of right now, it does not seem to be the case of them wanting to pay it all off.  They tried to make a move by paying off some of their foreign debt, but now they are aiming at cushioning the Ruble from its fall (which goes against the concept of free floating it).  Putin's group isn't the ones at fault for this.  It is purely the CB and they are facing an Audit due to their policies on the Ruble.  The other issue is not paying off the debt.  In contrast, if Russia does not pay off the debt, it is going to hit those who provided the debt pretty hard as that is money they wont get back.  Now the question is, what will happen if they do indeed not pay it back (default)?  Well, Russia's credit rating will drop.  But why does this matter?  Well, it does and it doesn't depending on who views things.  In this case, Russia's credit rating will be low and now they will find it much harder to obtain foreign loans.  The payoff to this is that it forces companies to rely on domestic loans and or their own revenue in order to improve their own growth, and not become reliant on others.  The downside is that they will not have access to "cheap money" and could possibly make it harder to get more money for improving their economy.  But there are workarounds to this.  They could pull a QE in their country and print trillions and provide their own long term, low interest rate loans.  Problem with this is that it could heavily devalue the Ruble and could increase inflation drastically in the country.  Or, they can come to some terms with their partners (India, China, Brazil, etc) to get foreign loans on certain conditions like having to pay it off by a certain period of time, and or foreigners get a certain % back in bonds/stocks.

Foreign Exchange reserves is good in that they can blow the USD/EURO in order to get more Rubles in order to pay for new projects.  It is good in the sense that they can also purchase imports from countries willing to accept these currencies that their respective exchange rate.  Problem is, it defeats the purpose of getting rid of the USD, and it could be bad in where they become reliant on it to cushon their faultering economy.  Increasing the diversification of the foreign reserves is good, where they can purchase more HKD, Renmimbi, Rial, Real, Yen, Sinapore Dollar, etc.

Last time, Russia saw a growth in industrial and manufacturing process, was....dun dun dun 1998 and 2008.  In this cases, Russia faced some issues because even though domestic manufacturing was up, it was a small % of their economy.  This time though, things may be quite different because 1) they are diversifying their economic partners.  Since they are pushing for more oil and gas deals with China/India, they are also using domestic companies to purchase a lot of industries elsewhere (oil and gas mostly mind you, and refineries) in Europe and South America.  As well, they have pushed for import substitution.  Medvedev made it clear that they won't become 100% reliant on themselves, but instead, relying around 50/50 (50% from their own production and the other 50% from imports) which could actually decrease costs and increase competition forcing reduction in inflation.

As soon as Ruble hits free floating, then things may be quite different.  Ruble will probably continue to drop in value, but the problem will be inflation and interest rates.  There needs to be a big push against increasing interest rates and other methods to dealing with inflation.  That being said, there should always be a FOREX but the supply should be in other currencies, especially with countries whom are willing to trade with Russia.  Currently, Russia has a deal with China for a $25B currency swap.  In this case, Russia should try to seek over $100B in currency swap.  Since Yuan is worth 7:1 (even though Ruble has dropped quite a bit to USD, it barely changed against Yuan) while Yuan is 6:1 to USD.  So it would actually be cheaper for Russia to purchase Yuans and Yuan bonds, and then sell them to other third parties for USD to pay off their foreign debt in USD and Euro than it is to do it with their own respective currencies.  But if they are not going to be accepted, then I guess TS for Russia.  In that case, they could just give the middle finger to west and deal with whatever credit rating they will get and lack of foreign loans from west, or pay it off with Rubles but accept the fact that it will now cost a lot more rubles for USD to deal with this.  In this case, better do it now than wait till it drops even further.

I guess the two nations to look at in this respective to see how they can deal with this is both Iran and India.  My father remembers the time when the Rupee was 10:1 with USD now it is 61:1 and when Rial was similar.  Yet they managed.  Only nation not able to manage, even though their currency has more value to it, is so far Argentina and possibly soon to be Japan (well, Yen has a lower value).

Edit: I heard another interesting theory: It is because Russia has too much money (Russia has actually increased its domestic reserves) and that is what is also causing an issue with its currency.

Russian companies have been burned in 1998 and in 2008 with foreign loan + exchange rate issues. So they are not exposed to
to the exchange rate today like they were before. Some of them may have to default but most will not and can survive a cheap
ruble. This subject was covered before, most of the so-called debt of Russia (government + private) is not actually debt and
Russia is a net creditor.

My concern is that the CBR is doing all the wrong things. It should not be increasing interest rates and it should not deplete
reserves to prop up the ruble. Why create demand for the ruble on the forex markets via the CBR when instead it can be created
much more effectively by sales transactions. The US dollar benefits from this (i.e. petrodollar) and instead of talking about it,
the Russian government should move to the petroruble tomorrow. They should tear up any contracts denominated in dollars and
sell at least gas for rubles.

The reason I raise the ruble printing business by the CBR is because there is not enough spare rubles available for foreign gas and
oil customers to buy. This is a symptom of the undermonetization of the Russian economy. The CBR is paralyzed with monetarist
fear of inflation and raises interest rates under real conditions of ruble shortage. This is f*cking insane. The CBR
should be increasing the money supply and it can do it naturally via oil and gas sales transactions. This will impose order on the
ruble exchange market and boost Russia's GDP at the same time.

kvs wrote:Russian companies have been burned in 1998 and in 2008 with foreign loan + exchange rate issues.  So they are not exposed to
to the exchange rate today like they were before.   Some of them may have to default but most will not and can survive a cheap
ruble.   This subject was covered before, most of the so-called debt of Russia (government + private) is not actually debt and
Russia is a net creditor.  

My concern is that the CBR is doing all the wrong things.   It should not be increasing interest rates and it should not deplete
reserves to prop up the ruble.   Why create demand for the ruble on the forex markets via the CBR when instead it can be created
much more effectively by sales transactions.   The US dollar benefits from this (i.e. petrodollar) and instead of talking about it,
the Russian government should move to the petroruble tomorrow.  They should tear up any contracts denominated in dollars and
sell at least gas for rubles.  

The reason I raise the ruble printing business by the CBR is because there is not enough spare rubles available for foreign gas and
oil customers to buy.  This is a symptom of the undermonetization of the Russian economy.   The CBR is paralyzed with monetarist
fear of inflation and raises interest rates under real conditions of ruble shortage.   This is f*cking insane.   The CBR
should be increasing the money supply and it can do it naturally via oil and gas sales transactions.    This will impose order on the
ruble exchange market and boost Russia's GDP at the same time.    

I think what the Russian Government should do is Cut a Deal with China and agree to them with Russia supporting sale of  Oil/Gas in Yuan , In return for massive investement from China into Russian Economy.

Oil/Gas from Russia should be sold in Euro/US/Rouble/Yuan ....... eventually reducing the Euro/US from the game to Rouble/Yuan.

China would be happy to let their Currency support by Oil/Gas ..which is what makes USD survive.

Even 25 % of Sale in Yuan , 50 % in Rouble and remaining 25 % in Euro/USD would do good to Russian Economy & Rouble.

As for now CBR should provide Cheap Credit to domestic Industry even if it means rise in Public Debt to 20 % from current 11 % no big deal.

Its really hard to see Russia sitting on Massive Gas/Oil/Gold Reserves would be dependent on West to fund them ......something is wrong on how things are run but now is a good opportunity to change.

True US Inflation rate is on higher single digit , but US reports at 1.66 % which is a BIG LIE ....but CBR can do the same instead of reporting inflation at 8 % it should say its at 4-5 %

You both make good points and bring up interesting ideas.

What I think is that they should indeed do what Austin suggested where the trade in currencies should be had in each other currencies mixed with more for Ruble and add in a little from USD/EURO.

I would say that Russia should also seek sales to Egypt and such countries. Egypt can become a major trading partner for Russia, as their population is in the 80M and now are a major importer of agricultural products and oil/gas. Well, this could be prime opportunity to work with Egypt, trade in their respective currencies, and possibly work out more deals for Russian businesses to operate in Egypt (as well as vice versa). As well, push same concept in Iran (I think it is already happening).

As for printing just Rubles, well, they could do that. But that will simply give ammunition for the west to try and devalue the Russian currency any more thus increasing interest (hell, we are seeing this here in Canada now since the CAD dropped even more). But I agree, they need to give cheap interest, long term loans. I agree with Austin, domestic debt is quite low and even if it increases by 2x, it is still very low. Maybe bypass CB (since they are too worried to do anything), by setting up Venture funds, funded by governments domestic reserves, and use that as a way to get funds out to the businesses at their own rates. I believe that is how Agribank so far is working (I could very well be wrong).

Maybe obtain loans from Egypt and a various other countries could work too. Diversify where the loans are coming from. As well, purchase treasuries from these countries as well. Russia is very good at giving loans or forgiving loans. Instead, they should use the loans money to purchase bonds and what not from these countries. Right now, Russia holds onto a lot of the treasury debt from US (not nearly that of Japan and China though). Maybe it is a good idea to start dumping those to these countries in terms of loans from them or exchange it for their bonds/debt.

China has already invested a lot of money into Russia. 10's of billions. Port in Crimea, auto plants, investments in oil and gas (They are now taking the LNG plants in terms of investment), parts plants, etc. I think it is high time Russia turns to their other partners like India and Brazil. Possibly work with India and Tata motors, maybe other Indian companies as well like Pharmaceutical (which India is known for), and agriculture. As well, ultimately, in the end, work with their neighbors and improve trade amongst them. Technically, Kazakhstan and Belarus should be Russia's largest trading partners, but they are not. It may be a good idea. Since Russia already has good ties with Azerbaijan on a military level, it may be a good idea to go economic as well (without forgetting about Armenia too).

The 50% money supply increases every year are the same as ruble printing. Clearly the Russian economy is starved for rubles and has
been sucking them up like a vacuum cleaner. Printing more of them will not give anything to the west other than a headache as Russia's
GDP increases. I often hear politicians talk about macroeconomics like it was some local grocery store and claim that changing the
money supply is some bizarre and irresponsible thing. This is total BS and they have no clue what they are yapping about. There
is no conservation of money in macroeconomics. As the economy increases, so must the money supply. A high interest policy
just amplifies the starvation effect and the economy stalls without enough money. Russia's economy has not reached equilibrium
yet and the CBR is acting like it has reached it.

If people think that Russian prices have normalized, then they are mistaken. Take the construction of diesel-electric submarines.
Russia is building six modernized 636 submarines for a total of $2 billion. Australia is going to pay Japan $2 billion for each copy of
the Soryu diesel-electric submarines which are in the same class as the Kilos. There may be significant pluses in favour of the Japanese
submarine, but there is no way the price can be 11 times higher. The submarines Russia is building are by no means junk and will
have the latest equipment. This is something to keep in mind when comparing Russia's military budget to that of the USA or any
other western state. It is also an example of a huge price difference that proves Russian prices are not equilibrated to western
levels. The economy is not just about grocery and consumer junk prices.

To summarize, the CBR needs to be put on a leash and Russia's oil and gas companies need to start demand rubles for payment.
This will neutralize all Sorosian attacks on Russia's currency immediately and totally.

Russia signed second pipeline deal with China btw. China now is effectively bigger buyer of gas than EU for Russia.

sepheronx wrote:Russia signed second pipeline deal with China btw. China now is effectively bigger buyer of gas than EU for Russia.

Its MOU not the actual deal is signed its some way off.

I am a bit dissapointed they first said it would carry 60 bcm gas per year but now it seem to be 30 bcm.

Austin wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Russia signed second pipeline deal with China btw. China now is effectively bigger buyer of gas than EU for Russia.

Its MOU not the actual deal is signed its some way off.

I am a bit dissapointed they first said it would carry 60 bcm gas per year but now it seem to be 30 bcm.

It must have been sloppy reporting. Russia will be able to supply China with 68 bcm with the two pipelines plus
existing links. As with Nord Stream, the capacity is typically doubled at a later stage. Russia benefits by having
China dependent on its supplies. There is no point signing for the maximum amount of gas today.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-09/russia-china-sign-second-western-route-mega-gas-deal-china-becomes-largest-buyer-rus

Russia and China new hydropower dam contracts signed

3 bin $ 1.6 GW generated power contract signed

RusHydro and PowerShina agreed on the construction of the Leningrad PSP

5 bin $ 1.5 GW generated power contract signed

"RusHydro" and "Three Gorges" agreed on the projects in the Far East

new, second gas megacontract closing in real fast

Russia-China Gas Deal to Include Take-or-Pay Provision: Gazprom

and another pipeline from East Siberia in discussions meaning 3rd aprox. 400 bin $ contract in the pipeline

Russia, China Discuss New Project on Pipeline Gas Supplies From Far East: Gazprom CEO

one of 17 contracts signed today

Russian, China Oil Giants Seal Framework Deal to Sell 10% of Vankorneft Shares to CNPC


which will in total result with

Russian gas supplies to China may be bigger than gas supplies to Europe - Gazprom CEO

and of course there is Japan

Russia, Japan to Continue Cooperation in Investment Despite Sanctions: Minister

Since Russia cannot export more than it produces it will have an excellent excuse to give the Russia hating EU in the near
future: sorry but we ain't got no gas to sells ya. The EU will have to pay through the nose for LNG and they deserve the
pain.

Hope there will be no country to rule alone.

Dosen't think China will be better than USA, then it'll fell it's absolute power

China is as much predictable as US. They are friends for now. But friends because of common goals and gains. I doubt China will be aggressive towards Russia like they were in Sino-Soviet split times, but Russia should always have their shield ready.

Russia’s energy ministry hails using rouble in oil contracts - minister

BEIJING, November 9. /TASS/. Russia’s energy minister is positive about executing oil contracts in roubles, Minister Alexander Novak told TASS on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Beijing on Sunday.

“We have always thought about it in positive terms,” he said. “But this is not a very simple issue. It should be tackled from the point of view of financial balances and Russia’s balance of payments, and the availability of currency. Progress should be gradual.”

The Russian government and exports are looking at possible use of roubles in export deals. Thus, Russia’s oil major Rosneft may switch entire to roubles in its gas contracts. The issue came to the fore after Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin had suggested it be considered by the presidential energy commission.

What will happen when Trade in Rouble Grows and CB has to print more roubles ?

What is the Plus and Downside doing trade in roubles ?

Hannibal Barca wrote:Like I said China adopted Russia. China will rule the world and Russia will be the long hand in Europe and elsewhere.
China and later India will guarantee prosperity while Russia bites the time to populate her vast land.

Following this logic the EU adopted first the USSR and then Russia. It is always better to have more customers for one's goods. Always.
It has nothing to do with "adoption".

As for prosperity in over-populated states, we will have to wait and see.

Austin wrote:What will happen when Trade in Rouble Grows and CB has to print more roubles ?

What is the Plus and Downside doing trade in roubles ?

It will only be a minus when the Russian economy is fully monetized. The CBR assumes that it monetized in 1992 based
on the beyond words nonsense theories of the "Harvard Boys" (e.g. Jeffrey Sachs). From what I can tell following
Russian economic development in the last 15 years, Russia can easily double its money supply.

If the CBR is so afraid of excess ruble inputs, then Russia can do a test and have Gazprom demand payment in rubles.
If the inflation apocalypse does not arise then Rossnet and others can start demand ruble payments as well.

Good Read

Russia’s Vulnerability to EU – US Sanctions and Military Encroachments

Austin wrote:Good Read

Russia’s Vulnerability to EU – US Sanctions and Military Encroachments

A weak article full of tropes. Under 13% of Russia's GDP depends on oil and gas. Perhaps the professor is confused and thinks it is 50% a number pertaining to the Russian budget. BTW, this high percentage is because Russian income taxes are flat at 13%. Oil and gas are naturally advantageous trade goods for Russia and it would
be insane to ignore them and engage in stupid attempts at "diversification". The only diversification is the one that comes from natural demand. It cannot be
forced. The professor should visit sdelanounas.ru and see some diversification in action.

So far I see no evidence of an oligarch insurrection in Russia. Looks like all those "crooks" ain't so crooked. But I do still see NGO organized demonstrations like the
one in support of the Banderite junta in Kiev. The good thing is that they are small and the late 2011 early 2012 demonstration levels have fizzled out. Russia
needs to outright ban all foreign funded NGOs that engage in active politicking in Russia. There is not a single foreign funded NGO operating in America that engages
in political action. Recall the scandal when the Chinese tried to give some money to US politicians as is the norm in US politics.

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:What will happen when Trade in Rouble Grows and CB has to print more roubles ?

What is the Plus and Downside doing trade in roubles ?

It will only be a minus when the Russian economy is fully monetized.  The CBR assumes that it monetized in 1992 based
on the beyond words nonsense theories of the "Harvard Boys" (e.g. Jeffrey Sachs).   From what I can tell following
Russian economic development in the last 15 years, Russia can easily double its money supply.

If the CBR is so afraid of excess ruble inputs, then Russia can do a test and have Gazprom demand payment in rubles.
If the inflation apocalypse does not arise then Rossnet and others can start demand ruble payments as well.

What do you mean by Fully Monetized ?

And how do countries like EU Euro , US $ , Japanese Yen and British Pound trade in their own currency without facing such issue ?

Why is Russia obsessed with low Public Debt ?

[url=http://en.ria.ru/business/20141110/195421369/Putin-State-Deficit-Not-to-Grow-to-Be-Held-at-Controlled-Level.html]Putin: State Deficit Not to Grow, to Be Held at Controlled Level of Less Than 15% GDP [/url]

BEIJING, November 10 (RIA Novosti) - Russia will not increase its state deficit and will hold it at a controllable level of no less than 15 percent of the gross domestic product, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday.

“There will be no growth in the state deficit. We plan on holding it at a safe controlled level of no less than 15 percent of the GDP,” Putin said during his speech at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China.