Russian Economy General News: #3

Austin wrote:The current oil price drop and consequently rouble devaluation is a short and temporary phase , 3 months down the line I see Oil Prices going up and rouble to be in better shape.

I think 80$ is the minimum long term. 100$ seems even more reasonable.

Nice

Russia may build up to 24 nuclear power units in India

Russian oil company Bashneft’s shares return to state

Sanctioned Russian banks begin testing national payment system next week

Glazyev claims of Russia central bank being "in bed with the west" slowly vanish in thing air.

He claimed the central bank was sabotaging Putin orders of a payment system that can replace american
payment system..guess what? Russian banks are now testing the payment system that Glazyev claimed
" they were doing nothing" .


Sanctioned Russian banks begin testing national payment system next week

http://rt.com/business/212423-russia-payment-system-test/

So how can Russian Central Bank be in "best with the west" while at the same time competing with them?

now the best part..

The move comes as a part of Russia’s ambitious initiative to move away from the Western dominance of its financial markets. Last month the Russian Central Bank said it would have its own international inter-bank payment system, an alternative to the global SWIFT network up and running by May 2015.

So you have a Central bank that Glazyev describe as a "private institution" that is "conspiring against Russia"
and in "bed with the west" , "that sabotage Putin".. but here we see in the real world totally the opposite..IT was Glazyev who told the Central Bank was not doing anything with the payment system.. but i have seen reports of the payment card already operating in some places. And the Central bank is dropping a nuclear economic bomb saying will have an alternative to swift network.. something like that will completely bypass the American hegemony in the world financial system..imagine that Russia central bank is creating a system that will make US no longer able to blackmail anyone so easily. the only other big thing remaining will be creating a new Internet..  So you see that.. a Central Bank in RUssia that some "Experts" claim is in bed with the west.. but that is fighting the western financial system.  

I think Glazyev while he gave some good points about EU leadership.. he missed the mark on his conspiracies about "jews private banks controlling Russia central bank"..  and most people were duped about that.. I have see no evidence that suggest there is a problem with RUssia Central bank..which is leadership was directly hired by Putin before. Simply Glazyev had a misunderstanding of Russian Government tactics.

For example debt , it is better for Russia to have debt with their enemies (western american banks) than with their friends..(CHina or local banks)  because in case of a major conflict or war.. they will have not to pay the debt..with their enemies.. but the one with friends they will have. So it is a good strategy to have your enemies lose a lot of money if they seek to attack you.. So it in my opinion highly strategical that Billionaires in Russia are forced to ask loans abroad and not in Russia..Because billionaires could then move to US and leave Russia taking their billions without paying a single ruble for their loans..  

ABout the price of Oil and value of Ruble.. people need to remember that for 5 years the from 98 to 2003 the price of oil was in the $20 and $30 and Russia did not collapsed. and most of that time Putin was in Power.The west tried to finish the job with Russia after the soviet union collapse..by crashing oil prices but Russia survived and recovered in a such a BIG WAY.. So Russia have experience managing its economy with low oil prices. What it will require is an adjustment in Russian budget .. i think in 3-5 years it will be very clear for everyone the west failure to collapse Russia economy and that it will become the opposite incredibly Rich..  OPEC own numbers estimate energy demands will triple in the next decade more or less.. so you cannot become a bankrupt nation if what you sell makes profits ,sells more and everyone wants to buy it.. There is no more profitable business in the world than energy..

Because technology cost a lot in manufacture it.. and then you need to give a warranty of 2-3 years and handle the repair of damaged technology from your own pockets and and then you have the huge RISK that become obsolete because something better shows up.. Look at the iphone is losing a lot of market share to others smarphones..like Samsung ones or SOny and now many iphone users will switch to Yotaphone.  Technology becomes obsolete very fast.. energy in the other hand never becomes obsolete.. you buy it and there is no return..no warranty..Energy business is even more profitable than food..and contrary to food ,it doesn't rotten and there is no alternative. to energy. Because population only grows and demands too and supply does not increase at the same rate of demand.
the inevitably the cost of energy will increase. Because American top companies also make a lot of profit from energy ,the chance they will sabotage permanently their own profitable business is zero. So don't hold your breath for Hydrogen cars or electric cars that use no fuel to become mainstream anytime soon. Fuel and Gas will become the main energy of the planet for the next 20 to 30 years ..

We are not exactly saying they are western controlled (I have my bets that some people within, mixed with oligarches has their western friends in mind to keep theor wealth), but what Galyzev is saying is they are a neo liberal organization. Coming out with their own method of credit cards and credit, doesnt mean much as both neo conservative or neo liberals would have come up with such methods. It is their monetary policies like interest rates and its previous methods of trying to prop up the ruble that got a lot of people mad. 10'S of billions spent to prop it up when they could have used that to build more railway lines, more logistic centers, more highways and other things that would actually benefit Russian economy than propping up a currency that was destined to fall.

sepheronx wrote:We are not exactly saying they are western controlled (I have my bets that some people within, mixed with oligarches has their western friends in mind to keep theor wealth), but what Galyzev is saying is they are a neo liberal organization. Coming out with their own method of credit cards and credit, doesnt mean much as both neo conservative or neo liberals would have come up with such methods. It is their monetary policies like interest rates and its previous methods of trying to prop up the ruble that got a lot of people mad. 10'S of billions spent to prop it up when they could have used that to build more railway lines, more logistic centers, more highways and other things that would actually benefit Russian economy than propping up a currency that was destined to fall.

Check the interview again.. Glazyev claimed the Russian Central Bank is in best with the Western Financial system..
that they follow exclusively their policy.. he even claimed that Russia Central bank was sabotaging Russia economy and Doing Nothing with Putin demands of a new payment system. so clearly he was wrong.. The news reported above shows completely the opposite of what he was saying.. the Bank already testing a new payment system.. and planing to replace their dependence on western financial payment system.. that contradict completely  Glazyev claims.. of a private owned bank that goals is to maintain western financial business hegemony.

So far the evidence shows Glazuev is wrong when it comes to the Russian Central bank. It is behaving exactly the way an independent country will run it. The RUssia central bank is now threatening the hegemony of western entire financial system by creating an alternative system. So this is not small.. if Russia was IRAQ will have been invaded already by NATO just for the actions of the bank.

http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/765805
Russian stocks plunge on falling oil, geopolitical tensions

I guess the funny money is gonna come to an end. The stock market will end up going back to its initial platform - a way for people to buy/sell domestic companies stocks.

Now Thanks to competitive discounts for customers in US & Asia first from Saudi and now Iraq Brent is even falling further to $66 and Rouble is now at 54.20 to USD.

Freking I think Brent may go down to $60 before it recovers.

Interesting Read

Oil, the rouble and the spectre of deflation


BTW can some one tell how much fall can Rouble go to till say it leads to economic collapse , is there any point to beyond which Rouble should not fall ?

A falling rouble makes foreign products more expensive and domestic products more appealing on the local market.

More than that it makes international travel less appealing and encourages domestic holidays... in this case good news for sochi and crimea and the far east of russia.

Both of which are good things.

For exporters it makes their products cheaper on the international markets.... the only negative is with imported items that suddenly become rather more expensive.

Not so simple , A falling rouble would be bad for inflation and macroeconomic stability

From the major oil producers Russia would collapse third last before only Saudi Arabia and United States and United States oil industry would die long before Russia's economy breaks down.
This means that Russia is not under any danger, when the weakies like Nigeria or Venezuela or Libya go down oil will inevitably raise due to lower offer.
Ruble can go down to 100 and Russian economy will still be afloat. There is no reason to support Ruble artificially like in 2009 with vast amounts of reserves. I am much more worried for stock prices and capital outflow this is indeed worrisome.

GarryB wrote:A falling rouble makes foreign products more expensive and domestic products more appealing on the local market.

More than that it makes international travel less appealing and encourages domestic holidays... in this case good news for sochi and crimea and the far east of russia.

Both of which are good things.

For exporters it makes their products cheaper on the international markets.... the only negative is with imported items that suddenly become rather more expensive.

That's right; due to the currency depreciation and airline prices going up, Russian holidays abroad have taken a big dive, although a few foreign countries are benefiting - such as Egypt & Turkey; whose number of Russian tourists have continued to climb this year. Thailand took a hit but only a small one, like down 6% on Russian tourists.
By far and away the big loser is Europe; with Russian tourists in some EU countries like Spain being down by up to 60%. I think Greece was hit one of the worst too; can't be good for them as Russian tourists are their 1st or 2nd largest group.
Krasnodar/Sochi, Abkhazia and the Crimea will be swimming in it come next Spring/Summer. For the more adventurous Russian traveler; there are such places as the Altai mountain ranges, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kamchatka, Lake Baikal - for sports tourism, eco-tourism, extreme tourism, hunting & fishing tours, hiking, etc... Then there are many cultural touristic destinations such as St. Petersburg, Moscow, the Golden Ring, Novgorod, parts of the Caucasus, etc... that many Russians wouldn't have been to and that they might take the opportunity to visit instead of Prague, Tallinn, Helsinki, Riga, Paris, London, Rome, etc... this winter.
We shouldn't forget that this currency devaluation also makes Russian tourist destinations more enticing for foreigners too. You might not expect it - but Russia is among the top 10 tourist destinations in the world AFAIK - there is certainly scope to improve this indicator Certainly, Russia has covered quite a niche with the Volga River cruises for elderly Europeans and others. Good opportunity for expansion.

About EU agricultural produce we already know - Russia banned it; but even the stuff getting repackaged in Belarus still can't escape the price appreciation; while imports from countries such as Turkey, India, etc... are also becoming more expensive albeit still rising due to the food sanctions on Europe.
All this amounts to a great opportunity for Russian agriculture; their competition is being banned or priced out of the market - and again, not only for domestic consumers, but to sell abroad too.

Finally - import prices in general are rising. Once again this hits Europe the hardest - as most consumer and industrial goods come from them - and Russians; consumers and businesses both, will look for domestic alternatives, as well as imports from other countries whose currencies didn't appreciate as much relative to the Rouble as the Euro did.
I think it's a little early to speak of any Russian consumer goods export boom - but certainly Russian companies have a good opportunity here, main thing is they don't squander it.

Austin wrote:Not so simple , A falling rouble would be bad for inflation and macroeconomic stability

Also true. Such a sharp fall has shaken investor confidence, consumer confidence - and will inevitably lead to a correction. Which means that soon prices for domestic goods in Russia will start rising too, as Russian workers will demand higher wages to offset their higher costs of living and as imported parts and materials have become more pricey. Everything will rise in other words; goods prices, wages, etc... inflation - as with that, the prices of Russian goods for the export market will rise too and their temporary competitive advantage will steadily be eroded. So the key for them is to act quickly, IMO. Fortunately, Russia is a stable enough country and has good enough finances, to avoid a mass panic among its citizens or a real crisis of confidence among its consumers and investors. But still, there will be considerable negative consequences to the Rouble depreciation.

Austin wrote:Not so simple , A falling rouble would be bad for inflation and macroeconomic stability

Inflation exists in Russia now for two things: cost of food and lack of imports of food. Domestic food companies in Russia I fear are taking advantage of the situation and selling food at high prices due to lack of competition. I was browsing through sdelanounas and there are massive amounts of new agriculture industries popping up in Russia but they are regional base (lack of selling to other regions) and number 1 complaint about selling the goods to other regions and prices, are the lack of logistics and supply chains. In this case, Russia really really really needs to invest more in railway, highways and airfields. In doing so, they can ultimately reduce transportation costs. Now that oil is going down in price, Russia can use cheap oil for domestic logistic enterprises. They can subsidize the petrol prices for logistic centers to make transportation cheaper. As for loss in sales due to lower oil prices, apparently demand for local consumption in Russia is one of the highest in the world now. They can either keep prices down through no petrol tax, or have a petrol tax. Either way, russia makes their own petrol (euro5) so at least they are fine (somewhat).

I wouldnt worry about stock market. The stock market is a total joke (s&p500 is apparently being propped up by government purchases, not basic stock traders) and Russia only acquired a stock market in the mid 90's and curreent stock market (MCIEX and RTS) are relatively new. Stock market will always survive as long as companies are listed and there are traders (apparently most Russian companies are now listed on asian stock exchange markets).

All one has to do is look at the countries whos currencies fell signidlficiantly to that of previous. Indias Rupee should come to your mind Austin. In 2011, inflation was as high as 12%, higher than it is now for Russia. Its value went from 10 rupees to usd now to 65 to usd. In the end, india survived and is prospering (doing business in India is now much cheaper). I believe same happened to HKD, Yen, and Peso (for various nations). But it isnt just Ruble dropping against USD. So is Euro and pretty much all currencies.

There is a growing threat in the world as USD value is going up. A lot of people are now dumping USD due to this massive raise in value, they believe a crash is coming to it. They believe USD will be on par with Euro in the coming months, and that aint good.

Apparently, Lada Granta sales are so high, well, very popular, that it isnt part of the vehicle recycle program in Russia. Meaning, you cant get discount on that model and new Kalina because of the high demand for them butt production not big enough to meet that demand.

As well, they have obtained or will in coming months a hybrid variant of the vehicle. So there might be a Lada Granta Hybrid entering the market.

Also, I am curious. But Russia opened up a gas exchange market in St.petersburg and apparently that helped Russia gain a lot of control over gas price market. How come they didnt do that for oil and metals? They could litteraly strip london and Abu Dabi the grip they have on the market.

Ok the news of 22 Reactor for India from Russia is encouraging up from 16 , I just really hope when Putin visits India , they sign the deal

Hopefully many economic deals are signed including Rouble-Rupee trade.

World Bank sees Russian GDP falling 0.7% in 2015, rising 0.3% in 2016

WASHINGTON, December 9. /TASS/. The World Bank has reduced its economic outlook for Russia to a contraction of 0.7% in 2015 and a 0.3% growth in 2016 to reflect a further decline and increased volatility in global oil prices, the bank said in a statement on Tuesday.

The new baseline scenario assumes an average oil price of $78 per barrel for 2015 and of $80 per barrel for 2016.

“In the baseline scenario, investment is projected to contract for a third year in a row in 2015, because of continued uncertainty, restricted access to international financial markets by Russian companies and banks, and lower consumer demand,” Birgit Hansl, World Bank Lead Economist for Russia, said.

“For companies in the natural resource sector, lower oil and commodity prices are expected to negatively affect investment decisions. For the first time since 2009, consumption growth is expected to decline, following a negligible expansion in 2014.”

The lower-case scenario assumes an average oil price of $70 per barrel in 2015 and $72 per barrel in 2016. In this scenario, the Russian economy is projected to contract by 1.5% in 2015, before expanding mildly by 0.3% in 2016, the bank said.

The uppercase scenario assumes an average oil price of $85 per barrel for 2015 and $90 per barrel for 2016. At these prices, the Russian economy is expected to avoid a recession in 2015 and to achieve an expansion of 0.5% in 2016, the authority said.

Rosnedra predict growth of oil reserves at 550 million tonnes

The total increase in localized hydrocarbon resources in the Russian Federation on the results produced in 2013, exploration work amounted to 7.3 billion tons of oil equivalent, including 2.4 billion tons of oil.

MOSCOW, December 9 - RIA Novosti. Rosnedra forecast growth of reserves in the Russian Federation on oil for five years at 550 million tonnes, told reporters the head Rosnedr Valery Pak.

"We expect that the increase in reserves (oil - Ed.), Irrespective of price fluctuations, will be at the level of 550 million tons over the next five years," - he said.

According to Pak, accurate data on the growth of hydrocarbon reserves will be presented in the spring of 2015. He also made a prediction that is likely to increase hydrocarbon reserves in 2014 will be not less than the level of 2013.

According to Rosnedra, the total increase in localized hydrocarbon resources in the Russian Federation on the results produced in 2013, exploration work amounted to 7.3 billion tons of oil equivalent, including 2.4 billion tons of oil. As reported agency, exploration for oil and gas in 2013 were made in all Russian oil and gas provinces, as well as in the waters of the Arctic and Far Eastern seas. Work was carried out on 145 sites, 47 of them - have been completed.

Austin wrote:World Bank sees Russian GDP falling 0.7% in 2015, rising 0.3% in 2016

WASHINGTON, December 9. /TASS/. The World Bank has reduced its economic outlook for Russia to a contraction of 0.7% in 2015 and a 0.3% growth in 2016 to reflect a further decline and increased volatility in global oil prices, the bank said in a statement on Tuesday.

The new baseline scenario assumes an average oil price of $78 per barrel for 2015 and of $80 per barrel for 2016.

“In the baseline scenario, investment is projected to contract for a third year in a row in 2015, because of continued uncertainty, restricted access to international financial markets by Russian companies and banks, and lower consumer demand,” Birgit Hansl, World Bank Lead Economist for Russia, said.

“For companies in the natural resource sector, lower oil and commodity prices are expected to negatively affect investment decisions. For the first time since 2009, consumption growth is expected to decline, following a negligible expansion in 2014.”

The lower-case scenario assumes an average oil price of $70 per barrel in 2015 and $72 per barrel in 2016. In this scenario, the Russian economy is projected to contract by 1.5% in 2015, before expanding mildly by 0.3% in 2016, the bank said.

The uppercase scenario assumes an average oil price of $85 per barrel for 2015 and $90 per barrel for 2016. At these prices, the Russian economy is expected to avoid a recession in 2015 and to achieve an expansion of 0.5% in 2016, the authority said.

The number 1 flaw in all predictions is that they assume oil price is 100% of gdp, when it accounts for less than 20%. Prices get offshoot based upon currency value so price wont effect GDP nominal but PPP. That said, imvestmemt money from foreigners is the largest joke in the decade. Never rely your economy on a foreigner. Something Russians are now learning. They also get the predictions based upon current showings staying the same. What they dont seem to account are the new enterprises starting production, new oil lines, new contracts, etc. I dont think the chinese and turkish deals are even being accounted for. Also, they dont account people bringing their money back after the new law, etc. Lots od variables are missing.

Or Russia can flat out lie about its GDP numbers by doing what US and EU does. Add drugs, prostitution and military procurement to the GDP numbers. But thay will just surgar coat a turd.

Although, I am impressed that worst case senario is a 1.5% decrease in GDP after all this. 2008/9 saw a 9% decrease.

Vann7 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:We are not exactly saying they are western controlled (I have my bets that some people within, mixed with oligarches has their western friends in mind to keep theor wealth), but what Galyzev is saying is they are a neo liberal organization. Coming out with their own method of credit cards and credit, doesnt mean much as both neo conservative or neo liberals would have come up with such methods. It is their monetary policies like interest rates and its previous methods of trying to prop up the ruble that got a lot of people mad. 10'S of billions spent to prop it up when they could have used that to build more railway lines, more logistic centers, more highways and other things that would actually benefit Russian economy than propping up a currency that was destined to fall.

Check the interview again.. Glazyev claimed the Russian Central Bank is in best with the Western Financial system..
that they follow exclusively their policy.. he even claimed that Russia Central bank was sabotaging Russia economy and Doing Nothing with Putin demands of a new payment system. so clearly he was wrong.. The news reported above shows completely the opposite of what he was saying.. the Bank already testing a new payment system.. and planing to replace their dependence on western financial payment system.. that contradict completely  Glazyev claims.. of a private owned bank that goals is to maintain western financial business hegemony.

So far the evidence shows Glazuev is wrong when it comes to the Russian Central bank. It is behaving exactly the way an independent country will run it. The RUssia central bank is now threatening the hegemony of western entire financial system by creating an alternative system. So this is not small.. if Russia was IRAQ will have been invaded already by NATO just for the actions of the bank.  

ofcourse they are. like in diamond industry jewish influense is in many banks and organisations.
that gref guy , head of sberbank, is jewish ,100% .
that should put some light on his statements.

this speculation wont work much longer unless people massively fall for it ,that why all gloom and doom in media. people should have confidence and keep calm.
and glazyev was right he has probably more information on inside.
look how now they can make russia swift system by january instead of march as those jewish people first said. now they try to look and mimic patriotic to save their positions of power.
also free floating ruble should have been done months ago.

Have you guys noticed that the price of gold is stable.

Usually the price of gold goes down when US Dollar goes up, and vice versa.

Looks like some are finding safety in gold (China, Russia etc.)

Now, please excuse me, I have to go (to purchase some gold)...

What Happened to Russia’s Ruble and Where Do We Go From Here

Austin wrote:What Happened to Russia’s Ruble and Where Do We Go From Here

That article is shit. It doesnt say anything on where to go or what to do. Just gives doom and gloom. Nothing more. Title obviously wrong on article altogether. As well, it doesnt mention the fact that oil output is the same, and the sale of oil is the same. Devaluation of currency helped leviate loss from oil prices. Even the articles I post at least give something. This gives nothing. Just says to wait till oil goes back up. Which is the worst thing to do. The guy who wrote that should be fired (edited because I was way too harsh). Cause Russia doesnt need such idiots.

Heck, at least they could have made suggestions like forcibly reducing interest rates to help businesses expand, or subsidies to companies whom are trying to be competitive, or tieing the ruble to gold or something.

Everyone equates that loans are needed from outside, ruble devaluation is hurting at same time oil prices dropped. Many people cant seem to get their heads around the basic concept of math. I have already provided the calculation. The real issue would be now, if prices stayed low while production was cut. They are getting more rubles now than before. Higher prices are by 9%, which isnt a killer when prices were still lower.

I am not an economist. I simply like to plug away numbers and look at things as a basic consumer. But, let me help the idiot in the article with providing what can really be done:
- lower interest rates: Russia gives tens of billions in loans to other countries. They should be able to provide tens of billions in loans to their own people at low interests like 2%.
- invest more money in logistical infrastructure: more, better roads, railway links and supply chains should really increase efficiency while reducing costs to makers of end products.
- subsidies for agriculture development to greatly reduce costs to basic consumer. With reduction in overhead costs, can reduce prices.
- Promote increase in consumer spending (big one): reduce vat tax or any sales tax, and allow more cheaper flights and transportation costs reduction (point 2) to promote people traveling within the country. More programs like the auto recycle should be implemented.
- change budget to reflect low oil prices ($30bbl): this will force the government to look at other options in obtaining money and possibly look at domestic market and banking to help it.

Waiting around and hoping sanctions will be lifted and oil prices going back up, is what a country meant to die, will do. If they wait, Russia will cease to exist. Russia has profited in the past on $10bbl. I think they can manage again.

This is an example how domestic market is skewed:http://www.finmarket.ru/news/3885059

So prices of oil drops but oil byproducts cost significantly more than before. This is how greedy business people are causing a glut. Russias GDP accounts for close to 80% bases upon domestic consumers. If they keep such tactics up, gdp will definately drop and these business people will end up losong in the end even if they think they can gain now.

I predict in the coming years, Russia will be far better off economically. Maybe GDP wont be as high as is now, but if they move to manufacturing more things domestically for domestic consumption, as well as domestic consumers start acting responsible and spend money within the country (domestic tourism and basic consumption), all the while transportation increases (consumption of petrol, reduced overall costs on products due to more efficient movement), could fix all this. Heck, for most part, Russia produces already most what is needed for the average person. But somehow, they screwed themselves over by lack of consumption.

Never understood about people who sit on money. You cant take it to the grave, and it can become worthless one day. Better have goods that can be passed down instead.

Nice

Putin called the actual transition of Russia and India to settlements in national currencies

Putin: state-owned companies should be a priority to purchase products from companies of Russia

"Bashneft" became the property of the state

Countries need to get it into their heads that over a long period 1% growth is actually a very fast and healthy growth rate.

The low cost of oil will hurt traditional producers rather more than the Russians anyway... especially those resorting to fracking.

Good Read with lot of stastics to backup , Russia Economy is not as Fragile as it is made to be

Putin 2000 – 2014, Midterm Interim Results: Diversfication, Modernization and the Role of the State in Russia’s economy